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2021-11-24

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Palantir Stock: A Fairy-Tale Valuation<blockquote>Palantir 股票：童话般的估值</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":874315356,"tweetId":"874315356","gmtCreate":1637730117785,"gmtModify":1637730117907,"author":{"id":3573377839632850,"idStr":"3573377839632850","authorId":3573377839632850,"authorIdStr":"3573377839632850","name":"6a1851b1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/default-avatar2.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":29,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Hahahha</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Hahahha</body></html>","text":"Hahahha","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874315356","repostId":1133450259,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133450259","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637724451,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1133450259?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-24 11:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock: A Fairy-Tale Valuation<blockquote>Palantir 股票：童话般的估值</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133450259","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir’s valuation is impossible to defend.\nPalantir will remain dependent on government ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Palantir’s valuation is impossible to defend.</li> <li>Palantir will remain dependent on government for income.</li> <li>The private sector opportunity is over-hyped.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d7c2e5739d48a7457788f40f66148c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 的估值是无法辩护的。</li><li>Palantir 的收入仍将依赖政府。</li><li>私营部门的机会被过度炒作了。</li></ul>Michael Vi/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Palantir (PLTR) is a software business with one of the most ridiculous values in the stock market today. Palantir has developed into a valuation that neither makes sense nor is supported by concrete business results, despite its growth opportunity in AI-assisted software analytics.<blockquote>Palantir (PLTR) 是一家软件公司，其价值是当今股市中最荒谬的公司之一。尽管 Palantir 在人工智能辅助软件分析方面存在增长机会，但其估值既没有意义，也没有具体业务成果的支持。</blockquote> Palantir: Heavily Dependent On Government<blockquote>Palantir：严重依赖政府</blockquote> Palantir must be one of the most overvalued stocks in history because it ticks all the conditions. Palantir manages to trade at a market value of $43 billion by specializing in surveillance, big data, and having the US government as a client. After the company issued its shares on the exchange through a direct listing, its market value was significantly larger than $43 billion. Insiders of a corporation sell shares while the company receives no money in a direct listing.<blockquote>Palantir 一定是历史上最被高估的股票之一，因为它符合所有条件。Palantir 通过专注于监控、大数据并以美国政府为客户，成功实现了 430 亿美元的市值交易。该公司通过直接上市在交易所发行股票后，其市值明显大于430亿美元。公司内部人士出售股票，而公司在直接上市中没有收到任何资金。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd2709688f9042bf5fcce1709d8d33b4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Instead, an IPO raises funds to invest in the company. Roughly a year ago, Palantir’s shares started trading at $10 a share. The stock, and the market capitalization, have proven highly volatile, as the stock price surged as high as $45. PLTR has since settled for a trading range of $20 - $30 and the company, as well as its business model, continues to attract a great deal of interest and attention.<blockquote>相反，首次公开募股筹集资金投资公司。大约一年前，Palantir 的股票开始交易价格为每股 10 美元。事实证明，该股和市值波动性很大，股价飙升至 45 美元。此后，PLTR 确定了 20 - 30 美元的交易范围，该公司及其商业模式继续吸引着极大的兴趣和关注。</blockquote> Palantir Has One Of The Best Features A Stock Can Have: A Sexy Story!<blockquote>Palantir拥有股票所能拥有的最好的功能之一：一个性感的故事!</blockquote> Palantir is right in the thick of a massive money-making opportunity: big data analytics. Information, or data, is a valuable commodity, and the ever-increasing speed with which businesses are embracing full digital transformation makes for a compelling story. Palantir's principal business is to assist organizations, particularly governments, in sifting through massive volumes of data in order to forecast and enhance decision-making. In the corporate realm, this can mean increasing conversions, whereas in government, it might mean supporting public health measures or assisting the US military in dealing with bad guys.<blockquote>Palantir 正处于一个巨大的赚钱机会：大数据分析。信息或数据是一种有价值的商品，企业接受全面数字化转型的速度不断加快，这是一个引人注目的故事。Palantir 的主要业务是协助组织（尤其是政府）筛选大量数据，以便进行预测和增强决策。在企业领域，这可能意味着增加转换，而在政府领域，这可能意味着支持公共卫生措施或协助美国军方对付坏人。</blockquote> Palantir is collaborating closely with the US government in a number of ways, and in exchange, Palantir is getting a lot of federal cheese. The company recently obtained an&nbsp;$823&nbsp;million deal with the US military to assist in the development of data architecture for intelligence systems.<blockquote>Palantir 正在以多种方式与美国政府密切合作，作为交换，Palantir 获得了大量联邦奶酪。该公司最近与美国军方达成了一项价值 8.23 亿美元的协议，协助开发情报系统的数据架构。</blockquote> Palantir's revenue is rapidly increasing, but keep in mind that the company is primarily reliant on governments. Revenues from government bodies have increased by 57% year-to-date, to $658.4 million. Revenues from companies were reported as $450.6 million, compared to $350.3 million a year ago. Relative revenue contributions of the government and the private sector were 59% and 41% and last year, 55% and 45%. These percentages tell an important story deserving to be clarified, as they contradict the prevailing narrative.<blockquote>Palantir 的收入正在快速增长，但请记住，该公司主要依赖政府。今年迄今为止，政府机构的收入增长了 57%，达到 6.584 亿美元。据报道，来自公司的收入为 4.506 亿美元，而去年同期为 3.503 亿美元。政府和私营部门的相对收入贡献分别为59%和41%，去年分别为55%和45%。这些百分比讲述了一个值得澄清的重要故事，因为它们与流行的叙述相矛盾。</blockquote> The prevailing narrative is that Palantir will move away from the government business and generate significant growth in the private sector. Expanding on the above-mentioned percentages, Palantir’s reliance on government has increased in 9M 2021, compared to 9M 2020, and government revenues are growing at a much faster rate than revenues sourced from the private sector.<blockquote>普遍的说法是，Palantir 将摆脱政府业务，并在私营部门实现显着增长。在上述百分比的基础上，Palantir 对政府的依赖在 2021 年增加了 900 万，而 2020 年为 900 万，政府收入的增长速度远远快于私营部门收入的增长速度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94983df06a9f7beac6c9efc9b601d5de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"103\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Palantir<blockquote>资料来源：Palantir</blockquote> Persistent Losses Despite Soaring Revenues<blockquote>尽管收入飙升，但持续亏损</blockquote> Palantir's long-term growth possibility in big data is frequently mentioned in bullish analysis, and with good cause. We've all learnt this through the rise of Metaverse Platforms (FB), which was one of the first corporations to collect massive amounts of data in order to monetize its customers. Palantir does have attractive growth prospects: It just reported that 3Q revenues were up 36% to $392 million, and the company expects an annual revenue growth rate of 40% for the year. The company has also stated that it expects at least 30% revenue growth from this year until 2025. While I do not contest that Palantir has potential for revenue growth, there are concerns I think are inadequately reflected in the company’s valuation.<blockquote>Palantir 在大数据方面的长期增长可能性在看涨分析中经常被提及，而且是有充分理由的。我们都通过元宇宙平台（FB）的崛起了解到了这一点，它是最早收集大量数据以将客户货币化的公司之一。Palantir 确实具有诱人的增长前景：它刚刚公布第三季度收入增长 36%，达到 3.92 亿美元，该公司预计今年年收入增长率为 40%。该公司还表示，预计从今年到2025年的收入将至少增长30%。虽然我并不否认 Palantir 有收入增长的潜力，但我认为公司的估值没有充分反映一些担忧。</blockquote> One anticipated issue is that, while Palantir may be experiencing considerable revenue growth, how much of that increase actually reaches Palantir's shareholders? The answer, not a lot. Reviewing the last filing of financial statements, we can see that despite an eye-popping sales increase of 44% year-to-date, Palantir is not anywhere close to generating profits. Losses in 3Q were $102.1 million and the loss year-to-date is $364.2 million.<blockquote>一个预期的问题是，虽然 Palantir 可能正在经历相当大的收入增长，但其中有多少增长实际上惠及了 Palantir 的股东？答案是，不多。回顾最新提交的财务报表，我们可以看到，尽管今年迄今为止的销售额增长了 44%，令人瞠目结舌，但 Palantir 还远未实现盈利。第三季度亏损1.021亿美元，年初至今亏损3.642亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3cd7fa51065ca16c4f29735f97f885a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Palantir<blockquote>资料来源：Palantir</blockquote> Palantir's lack of profitability is a major issue, and I keep asking myself, \"How long will shareholders tolerate Palantir losing so much money every quarter?\"<blockquote>Palantir 缺乏盈利能力是一个主要问题，我一直在问自己，“股东还能容忍 Palantir 每个季度亏损这么多钱多久？”</blockquote> The fact that Palantir is not a startup adds to my concerns (which would be a feasible justification for losing so much money). Palantir, on the other hand, which was formed nearly two decades ago and has raised an estimated $2.6 billion in funding, continues to lose money. This is a track record that I find difficult to justify, particularly given Palantir's present multiple.<blockquote>Palantir不是一家初创公司的事实增加了我的担忧（这将是损失这么多钱的一个可行的理由）。另一方面，成立于近二十年前、已筹集约26亿美元资金的Palantir持续亏损。这是一个我发现很难证明的记录，特别是考虑到Palantir目前的倍数。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aeae26e41a3e34c539c821ce941d1a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"240\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Crunchbase<blockquote>资料来源：Crunchbase</blockquote> What Are You Paying For, Exactly?<blockquote>你到底在为什么付钱？</blockquote> Palantir is doing an excellent job of presenting its potential, and the stock has a growth stock feel to it.<blockquote>Palantir 在展示其潜力方面做得非常出色，而且该股给人一种成长股的感觉。</blockquote> But since profits are not showing up on the profit statement after nearly two decades of operations, why exactly are investors paying a multiple of 28? Not even Netflix (NFLX) gets a multiple of 20 and it has been one of the fastest growing companies not only in the U.S., but in the world over the past two decades. The multiple is very hard to defend and not fitting for a company that is growing sales quickly.<blockquote>但既然经过近二十年的运营，利润还没有出现在利润表上，那么为什么投资者要支付28倍的市盈率呢？即使是网飞（NFLX）也没有20的倍数，在过去的20年里，它不仅是美国，而且是世界上发展最快的公司之一。这个倍数很难辩护，不适合一家销售额快速增长的公司。</blockquote> On that note, Palantir isn’t exactly doubling sales every year. A 30% growth rate is good, but not impressive. And why would anyone want to overpay for Palantir’s sales growth, if competitors such as Splunk (SPLK) can be acquired for far lower sales multiples?<blockquote>在这方面，Palantir 的销售额并没有每年翻一番。30%的增长率是不错的，但并不令人印象深刻。如果可以以低得多的销售倍数收购 Splunk (SPLK) 等竞争对手，为什么还会有人愿意为 Palantir 的销售增长支付过高的价格呢？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bebcab5d6bcfef1fa26b4e3a5c9ad27\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> A Few Words on Risks<blockquote>关于风险的几句话</blockquote> Palantir is growing revenues at around 30% annually, but if this growth can be maintained over the long term is another question. Also, can Palantir really turn a profit in the future, and if so, when? Why Palantir receives such a high multiple is beyond me. The big data company is one of the most overvalued and overhyped I've ever seen, which is why I consider Palantir's biggest risk as the excessively inflated multiple.<blockquote>Palantir 的收入每年增长约 30%，但这种增长能否长期维持则是另一个问题。另外，Palantir 未来真的能扭亏为盈吗？如果能，何时扭亏为盈？我不明白为什么 Palantir 会获得如此高的倍数。这家大数据公司是我见过的最被高估和炒作的公司之一，这就是为什么我认为 Palantir 最大的风险是过度膨胀的市盈率。</blockquote> My Conclusion<blockquote>我的结论</blockquote> It's absurd to pay 28 times revenues for a company that is losing money. The potential for revenue growth is undeniable; after all, big data is big business. However, after two decades of operations, shareholders should be able to expect a little more from Palantir, particularly management, in the form of profits or stock buybacks, or something similar. Palantir has done a fantastic job benefiting its selling shareholders, yet there is no deal to be had because there are no earnings. Palantir's valuation is a fairy tale, and like all fairy tales, it ends in a nasty awakening.<blockquote>为一家亏损的公司支付28倍的收入是荒谬的。收入增长的潜力不可否认；毕竟，大数据就是大生意。然而，经过二十年的运营，股东应该能够以利润或股票回购或类似的形式对 Palantir 抱有更多期望，尤其是管理层。Palantir 在使其出售股东受益方面做得非常出色，但由于没有收益，因此无法达成任何交易。Palantir的估值是一个童话故事，像所有童话故事一样，它以一个令人讨厌的觉醒结束。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock: A Fairy-Tale Valuation<blockquote>Palantir 股票：童话般的估值</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock: A Fairy-Tale Valuation<blockquote>Palantir 股票：童话般的估值</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-11-24 11:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Palantir’s valuation is impossible to defend.</li> <li>Palantir will remain dependent on government for income.</li> <li>The private sector opportunity is over-hyped.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d7c2e5739d48a7457788f40f66148c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 的估值是无法辩护的。</li><li>Palantir 的收入仍将依赖政府。</li><li>私营部门的机会被过度炒作了。</li></ul>Michael Vi/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Palantir (PLTR) is a software business with one of the most ridiculous values in the stock market today. Palantir has developed into a valuation that neither makes sense nor is supported by concrete business results, despite its growth opportunity in AI-assisted software analytics.<blockquote>Palantir (PLTR) 是一家软件公司，其价值是当今股市中最荒谬的公司之一。尽管 Palantir 在人工智能辅助软件分析方面存在增长机会，但其估值既没有意义，也没有具体业务成果的支持。</blockquote> Palantir: Heavily Dependent On Government<blockquote>Palantir：严重依赖政府</blockquote> Palantir must be one of the most overvalued stocks in history because it ticks all the conditions. Palantir manages to trade at a market value of $43 billion by specializing in surveillance, big data, and having the US government as a client. After the company issued its shares on the exchange through a direct listing, its market value was significantly larger than $43 billion. Insiders of a corporation sell shares while the company receives no money in a direct listing.<blockquote>Palantir 一定是历史上最被高估的股票之一，因为它符合所有条件。Palantir 通过专注于监控、大数据并以美国政府为客户，成功实现了 430 亿美元的市值交易。该公司通过直接上市在交易所发行股票后，其市值明显大于430亿美元。公司内部人士出售股票，而公司在直接上市中没有收到任何资金。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd2709688f9042bf5fcce1709d8d33b4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Instead, an IPO raises funds to invest in the company. Roughly a year ago, Palantir’s shares started trading at $10 a share. The stock, and the market capitalization, have proven highly volatile, as the stock price surged as high as $45. PLTR has since settled for a trading range of $20 - $30 and the company, as well as its business model, continues to attract a great deal of interest and attention.<blockquote>相反，首次公开募股筹集资金投资公司。大约一年前，Palantir 的股票开始交易价格为每股 10 美元。事实证明，该股和市值波动性很大，股价飙升至 45 美元。此后，PLTR 确定了 20 - 30 美元的交易范围，该公司及其商业模式继续吸引着极大的兴趣和关注。</blockquote> Palantir Has One Of The Best Features A Stock Can Have: A Sexy Story!<blockquote>Palantir拥有股票所能拥有的最好的功能之一：一个性感的故事!</blockquote> Palantir is right in the thick of a massive money-making opportunity: big data analytics. Information, or data, is a valuable commodity, and the ever-increasing speed with which businesses are embracing full digital transformation makes for a compelling story. Palantir's principal business is to assist organizations, particularly governments, in sifting through massive volumes of data in order to forecast and enhance decision-making. In the corporate realm, this can mean increasing conversions, whereas in government, it might mean supporting public health measures or assisting the US military in dealing with bad guys.<blockquote>Palantir 正处于一个巨大的赚钱机会：大数据分析。信息或数据是一种有价值的商品，企业接受全面数字化转型的速度不断加快，这是一个引人注目的故事。Palantir 的主要业务是协助组织（尤其是政府）筛选大量数据，以便进行预测和增强决策。在企业领域，这可能意味着增加转换，而在政府领域，这可能意味着支持公共卫生措施或协助美国军方对付坏人。</blockquote> Palantir is collaborating closely with the US government in a number of ways, and in exchange, Palantir is getting a lot of federal cheese. The company recently obtained an&nbsp;$823&nbsp;million deal with the US military to assist in the development of data architecture for intelligence systems.<blockquote>Palantir 正在以多种方式与美国政府密切合作，作为交换，Palantir 获得了大量联邦奶酪。该公司最近与美国军方达成了一项价值 8.23 亿美元的协议，协助开发情报系统的数据架构。</blockquote> Palantir's revenue is rapidly increasing, but keep in mind that the company is primarily reliant on governments. Revenues from government bodies have increased by 57% year-to-date, to $658.4 million. Revenues from companies were reported as $450.6 million, compared to $350.3 million a year ago. Relative revenue contributions of the government and the private sector were 59% and 41% and last year, 55% and 45%. These percentages tell an important story deserving to be clarified, as they contradict the prevailing narrative.<blockquote>Palantir 的收入正在快速增长，但请记住，该公司主要依赖政府。今年迄今为止，政府机构的收入增长了 57%，达到 6.584 亿美元。据报道，来自公司的收入为 4.506 亿美元，而去年同期为 3.503 亿美元。政府和私营部门的相对收入贡献分别为59%和41%，去年分别为55%和45%。这些百分比讲述了一个值得澄清的重要故事，因为它们与流行的叙述相矛盾。</blockquote> The prevailing narrative is that Palantir will move away from the government business and generate significant growth in the private sector. Expanding on the above-mentioned percentages, Palantir’s reliance on government has increased in 9M 2021, compared to 9M 2020, and government revenues are growing at a much faster rate than revenues sourced from the private sector.<blockquote>普遍的说法是，Palantir 将摆脱政府业务，并在私营部门实现显着增长。在上述百分比的基础上，Palantir 对政府的依赖在 2021 年增加了 900 万，而 2020 年为 900 万，政府收入的增长速度远远快于私营部门收入的增长速度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94983df06a9f7beac6c9efc9b601d5de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"103\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Palantir<blockquote>资料来源：Palantir</blockquote> Persistent Losses Despite Soaring Revenues<blockquote>尽管收入飙升，但持续亏损</blockquote> Palantir's long-term growth possibility in big data is frequently mentioned in bullish analysis, and with good cause. We've all learnt this through the rise of Metaverse Platforms (FB), which was one of the first corporations to collect massive amounts of data in order to monetize its customers. Palantir does have attractive growth prospects: It just reported that 3Q revenues were up 36% to $392 million, and the company expects an annual revenue growth rate of 40% for the year. The company has also stated that it expects at least 30% revenue growth from this year until 2025. While I do not contest that Palantir has potential for revenue growth, there are concerns I think are inadequately reflected in the company’s valuation.<blockquote>Palantir 在大数据方面的长期增长可能性在看涨分析中经常被提及，而且是有充分理由的。我们都通过元宇宙平台（FB）的崛起了解到了这一点，它是最早收集大量数据以将客户货币化的公司之一。Palantir 确实具有诱人的增长前景：它刚刚公布第三季度收入增长 36%，达到 3.92 亿美元，该公司预计今年年收入增长率为 40%。该公司还表示，预计从今年到2025年的收入将至少增长30%。虽然我并不否认 Palantir 有收入增长的潜力，但我认为公司的估值没有充分反映一些担忧。</blockquote> One anticipated issue is that, while Palantir may be experiencing considerable revenue growth, how much of that increase actually reaches Palantir's shareholders? The answer, not a lot. Reviewing the last filing of financial statements, we can see that despite an eye-popping sales increase of 44% year-to-date, Palantir is not anywhere close to generating profits. Losses in 3Q were $102.1 million and the loss year-to-date is $364.2 million.<blockquote>一个预期的问题是，虽然 Palantir 可能正在经历相当大的收入增长，但其中有多少增长实际上惠及了 Palantir 的股东？答案是，不多。回顾最新提交的财务报表，我们可以看到，尽管今年迄今为止的销售额增长了 44%，令人瞠目结舌，但 Palantir 还远未实现盈利。第三季度亏损1.021亿美元，年初至今亏损3.642亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3cd7fa51065ca16c4f29735f97f885a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Palantir<blockquote>资料来源：Palantir</blockquote> Palantir's lack of profitability is a major issue, and I keep asking myself, \"How long will shareholders tolerate Palantir losing so much money every quarter?\"<blockquote>Palantir 缺乏盈利能力是一个主要问题，我一直在问自己，“股东还能容忍 Palantir 每个季度亏损这么多钱多久？”</blockquote> The fact that Palantir is not a startup adds to my concerns (which would be a feasible justification for losing so much money). Palantir, on the other hand, which was formed nearly two decades ago and has raised an estimated $2.6 billion in funding, continues to lose money. This is a track record that I find difficult to justify, particularly given Palantir's present multiple.<blockquote>Palantir不是一家初创公司的事实增加了我的担忧（这将是损失这么多钱的一个可行的理由）。另一方面，成立于近二十年前、已筹集约26亿美元资金的Palantir持续亏损。这是一个我发现很难证明的记录，特别是考虑到Palantir目前的倍数。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aeae26e41a3e34c539c821ce941d1a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"240\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Crunchbase<blockquote>资料来源：Crunchbase</blockquote> What Are You Paying For, Exactly?<blockquote>你到底在为什么付钱？</blockquote> Palantir is doing an excellent job of presenting its potential, and the stock has a growth stock feel to it.<blockquote>Palantir 在展示其潜力方面做得非常出色，而且该股给人一种成长股的感觉。</blockquote> But since profits are not showing up on the profit statement after nearly two decades of operations, why exactly are investors paying a multiple of 28? Not even Netflix (NFLX) gets a multiple of 20 and it has been one of the fastest growing companies not only in the U.S., but in the world over the past two decades. The multiple is very hard to defend and not fitting for a company that is growing sales quickly.<blockquote>但既然经过近二十年的运营，利润还没有出现在利润表上，那么为什么投资者要支付28倍的市盈率呢？即使是网飞（NFLX）也没有20的倍数，在过去的20年里，它不仅是美国，而且是世界上发展最快的公司之一。这个倍数很难辩护，不适合一家销售额快速增长的公司。</blockquote> On that note, Palantir isn’t exactly doubling sales every year. A 30% growth rate is good, but not impressive. And why would anyone want to overpay for Palantir’s sales growth, if competitors such as Splunk (SPLK) can be acquired for far lower sales multiples?<blockquote>在这方面，Palantir 的销售额并没有每年翻一番。30%的增长率是不错的，但并不令人印象深刻。如果可以以低得多的销售倍数收购 Splunk (SPLK) 等竞争对手，为什么还会有人愿意为 Palantir 的销售增长支付过高的价格呢？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bebcab5d6bcfef1fa26b4e3a5c9ad27\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> A Few Words on Risks<blockquote>关于风险的几句话</blockquote> Palantir is growing revenues at around 30% annually, but if this growth can be maintained over the long term is another question. Also, can Palantir really turn a profit in the future, and if so, when? Why Palantir receives such a high multiple is beyond me. The big data company is one of the most overvalued and overhyped I've ever seen, which is why I consider Palantir's biggest risk as the excessively inflated multiple.<blockquote>Palantir 的收入每年增长约 30%，但这种增长能否长期维持则是另一个问题。另外，Palantir 未来真的能扭亏为盈吗？如果能，何时扭亏为盈？我不明白为什么 Palantir 会获得如此高的倍数。这家大数据公司是我见过的最被高估和炒作的公司之一，这就是为什么我认为 Palantir 最大的风险是过度膨胀的市盈率。</blockquote> My Conclusion<blockquote>我的结论</blockquote> It's absurd to pay 28 times revenues for a company that is losing money. The potential for revenue growth is undeniable; after all, big data is big business. However, after two decades of operations, shareholders should be able to expect a little more from Palantir, particularly management, in the form of profits or stock buybacks, or something similar. Palantir has done a fantastic job benefiting its selling shareholders, yet there is no deal to be had because there are no earnings. Palantir's valuation is a fairy tale, and like all fairy tales, it ends in a nasty awakening.<blockquote>为一家亏损的公司支付28倍的收入是荒谬的。收入增长的潜力不可否认；毕竟，大数据就是大生意。然而，经过二十年的运营，股东应该能够以利润或股票回购或类似的形式对 Palantir 抱有更多期望，尤其是管理层。Palantir 在使其出售股东受益方面做得非常出色，但由于没有收益，因此无法达成任何交易。Palantir的估值是一个童话故事，像所有童话故事一样，它以一个令人讨厌的觉醒结束。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471364-palantir-stock-fairy-tale-valuation\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471364-palantir-stock-fairy-tale-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133450259","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir’s valuation is impossible to defend.\nPalantir will remain dependent on government for income.\nThe private sector opportunity is over-hyped.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nPalantir (PLTR) is a software business with one of the most ridiculous values in the stock market today. Palantir has developed into a valuation that neither makes sense nor is supported by concrete business results, despite its growth opportunity in AI-assisted software analytics.\nPalantir: Heavily Dependent On Government\nPalantir must be one of the most overvalued stocks in history because it ticks all the conditions. Palantir manages to trade at a market value of $43 billion by specializing in surveillance, big data, and having the US government as a client. After the company issued its shares on the exchange through a direct listing, its market value was significantly larger than $43 billion. Insiders of a corporation sell shares while the company receives no money in a direct listing.\nData by YCharts\nInstead, an IPO raises funds to invest in the company. Roughly a year ago, Palantir’s shares started trading at $10 a share. The stock, and the market capitalization, have proven highly volatile, as the stock price surged as high as $45. PLTR has since settled for a trading range of $20 - $30 and the company, as well as its business model, continues to attract a great deal of interest and attention.\nPalantir Has One Of The Best Features A Stock Can Have: A Sexy Story!\nPalantir is right in the thick of a massive money-making opportunity: big data analytics. Information, or data, is a valuable commodity, and the ever-increasing speed with which businesses are embracing full digital transformation makes for a compelling story. Palantir's principal business is to assist organizations, particularly governments, in sifting through massive volumes of data in order to forecast and enhance decision-making. In the corporate realm, this can mean increasing conversions, whereas in government, it might mean supporting public health measures or assisting the US military in dealing with bad guys.\nPalantir is collaborating closely with the US government in a number of ways, and in exchange, Palantir is getting a lot of federal cheese. The company recently obtained an $823 million deal with the US military to assist in the development of data architecture for intelligence systems.\nPalantir's revenue is rapidly increasing, but keep in mind that the company is primarily reliant on governments. Revenues from government bodies have increased by 57% year-to-date, to $658.4 million. Revenues from companies were reported as $450.6 million, compared to $350.3 million a year ago. Relative revenue contributions of the government and the private sector were 59% and 41% and last year, 55% and 45%. These percentages tell an important story deserving to be clarified, as they contradict the prevailing narrative.\nThe prevailing narrative is that Palantir will move away from the government business and generate significant growth in the private sector. Expanding on the above-mentioned percentages, Palantir’s reliance on government has increased in 9M 2021, compared to 9M 2020, and government revenues are growing at a much faster rate than revenues sourced from the private sector.\nSource: Palantir\nPersistent Losses Despite Soaring Revenues\nPalantir's long-term growth possibility in big data is frequently mentioned in bullish analysis, and with good cause. We've all learnt this through the rise of Metaverse Platforms (FB), which was one of the first corporations to collect massive amounts of data in order to monetize its customers. Palantir does have attractive growth prospects: It just reported that 3Q revenues were up 36% to $392 million, and the company expects an annual revenue growth rate of 40% for the year. The company has also stated that it expects at least 30% revenue growth from this year until 2025. While I do not contest that Palantir has potential for revenue growth, there are concerns I think are inadequately reflected in the company’s valuation.\nOne anticipated issue is that, while Palantir may be experiencing considerable revenue growth, how much of that increase actually reaches Palantir's shareholders? The answer, not a lot. Reviewing the last filing of financial statements, we can see that despite an eye-popping sales increase of 44% year-to-date, Palantir is not anywhere close to generating profits. Losses in 3Q were $102.1 million and the loss year-to-date is $364.2 million.\nSource: Palantir\nPalantir's lack of profitability is a major issue, and I keep asking myself, \"How long will shareholders tolerate Palantir losing so much money every quarter?\"\nThe fact that Palantir is not a startup adds to my concerns (which would be a feasible justification for losing so much money). Palantir, on the other hand, which was formed nearly two decades ago and has raised an estimated $2.6 billion in funding, continues to lose money. This is a track record that I find difficult to justify, particularly given Palantir's present multiple.\nSource: Crunchbase\nWhat Are You Paying For, Exactly?\nPalantir is doing an excellent job of presenting its potential, and the stock has a growth stock feel to it.\nBut since profits are not showing up on the profit statement after nearly two decades of operations, why exactly are investors paying a multiple of 28? Not even Netflix (NFLX) gets a multiple of 20 and it has been one of the fastest growing companies not only in the U.S., but in the world over the past two decades. The multiple is very hard to defend and not fitting for a company that is growing sales quickly.\nOn that note, Palantir isn’t exactly doubling sales every year. A 30% growth rate is good, but not impressive. And why would anyone want to overpay for Palantir’s sales growth, if competitors such as Splunk (SPLK) can be acquired for far lower sales multiples?\nData by YCharts\nA Few Words on Risks\nPalantir is growing revenues at around 30% annually, but if this growth can be maintained over the long term is another question. Also, can Palantir really turn a profit in the future, and if so, when? Why Palantir receives such a high multiple is beyond me. The big data company is one of the most overvalued and overhyped I've ever seen, which is why I consider Palantir's biggest risk as the excessively inflated multiple.\nMy Conclusion\nIt's absurd to pay 28 times revenues for a company that is losing money. The potential for revenue growth is undeniable; after all, big data is big business. However, after two decades of operations, shareholders should be able to expect a little more from Palantir, particularly management, in the form of profits or stock buybacks, or something similar. Palantir has done a fantastic job benefiting its selling shareholders, yet there is no deal to be had because there are no earnings. Palantir's valuation is a fairy tale, and like all fairy tales, it ends in a nasty awakening.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1013,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/874315356"}