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2021-11-22

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Adobe Vs. Microsoft Stock: 2 Long-Term Leaders To Dominate The Software Space<blockquote>Adobe 与微软股票：两家长期领导者将主导软件领域</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":872489987,"tweetId":"872489987","gmtCreate":1637559846842,"gmtModify":1637559846911,"author":{"id":4092561976613440,"idStr":"4092561976613440","authorId":4092561976613440,"authorIdStr":"4092561976613440","name":"Ernestgoh0","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26efe2a26972b528df18cc8a945287d5","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Wow</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Wow</body></html>","text":"Wow","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872489987","repostId":1159890392,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159890392","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637559348,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1159890392?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 13:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Adobe Vs. Microsoft Stock: 2 Long-Term Leaders To Dominate The Software Space<blockquote>Adobe 与微软股票：两家长期领导者将主导软件领域</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159890392","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft continues its reign as the King of Software as its enterprise value crosses $2.5T","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Microsoft continues its reign as the King of Software as its enterprise value crosses $2.5T. It's also making forays into enterprise applications for the metaverse.</li> <li>Adobe continues to be the undisputed leader in the creative software market. Its 2023 TAM of $147B signifies huge opportunities for the company to leverage.</li> <li>We discuss why both companies deserve to be anchor stocks for any growth investor's portfolio.</li> <li>We also discuss whether it's a good time to buy both stocks now.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78cf4b56323a37eacd27b73ced593338\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1082\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Jean-Luc Ichard/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>微软继续保持软件之王的地位，其企业价值突破 2.5 万亿美元。它还涉足元宇宙的企业应用。</li><li>Adobe仍然是创意软件市场无可争议的领导者。其 2023 年 TAM 为 1470 亿美元，意味着该公司可以利用巨大的机会。</li><li>我们讨论为什么这两家公司都值得成为任何成长型投资者投资组合的主要股票。</li><li>我们还讨论现在是否是购买这两只股票的好时机。</li></ul>Jean-Luc Ichard/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Adobe Inc. (ADBE) and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) are two of the most revered software leaders worldwide. Notwithstanding, MSFT is easily the bigger brother here as it boasts an enterprise value (EV) of $2.52T. In contrast, ADBE's EV is only worth $326B, as it trails the King of Software by a wide margin. Despite that, Adobe has been growing rapidly and has an exceptionally wide moat in the creative industries. It has also extended its leadership into both the B2B and B2C channels, as it leverages its huge 2023 TAM worth $147B. Therefore, there's a tremendous amount of potential growth for the creative software leader to tap.<blockquote>Adobe Inc. (ADBE) 和微软公司 (MSFT) 是全球最受尊敬的两个软件领导者。尽管如此，MSFT 还是轻松成为这里的老大哥，因为它拥有 2.52 吨的企业价值 (EV)。相比之下，ADBE 的电动汽车仅价值 326B 美元，远远落后于软件之王。尽管如此，Adobe一直在快速增长，并在创意产业拥有异常广泛的护城河。它还利用其价值 1470 亿美元的 2023 年巨额 TAM，将其领导地位扩展到 B2B 和 B2C 渠道。因此，这位富有创造力的软件领导者有着巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote> On the other hand, Microsoft has quickly pivoted itself towards Cloud Computing as its biggest growth driver. Under Satya Nadella's capable leadership, MSFT has transformed itself into a leading Cloud hyperscaler. Azure continues to grow its clout rapidly as it leverages MSFT's deep enterprise software applications expertise against the #1 Cloud hyperscaler AWS (AMZN). The company has also telegraphed its plans to spur its next growth phase through enterprise applications in the metaverse.<blockquote>另一方面，微软已迅速将云计算作为其最大的增长动力。在 Satya Nadella 的干练领导下，MSFT 已转型为领先的云超大规模企业。Azure继续快速增长其影响力，因为它利用MSFT深厚的企业软件应用专业知识来对抗排名第一的云超大规模公司AWS（AMZN）。该公司还表示计划通过元宇宙的企业应用来刺激下一阶段的增长。</blockquote> We discuss these two software behemoths and demonstrate why both companies are very high-quality companies. As a result, we believe that both deserve to be considered anchor stocks for most growth investors' portfolios.<blockquote>我们讨论这两家软件巨头，并展示为什么这两家公司都是非常高质量的公司。因此，我们认为两者都值得被视为大多数成长型投资者投资组合的锚股票。</blockquote> We also discuss whether it's an appropriate time to buy both stocks now.<blockquote>我们还讨论现在是否是购买这两只股票的合适时机。</blockquote> ADBE Vs. MSFT Stock YTD Performance<blockquote>ADBE 与 MSFT 股票年初至今表现</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c95ae8c533f02f2af083ceee62bf9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">ADBE Vs. MSFT stock YTD performance (as of 19 November 21).<blockquote>ADBE 与 MSFT 股票年初至今表现（截至 21 年 11 月 19 日）。</blockquote> ADBE and MSFT stock have easily outperformed the market this year. MSFT stock is the leader here, with a YTD gain of 54.3%. While ADBE stock struggled initially in March, its upward momentum has recovered remarkably. Its YTD gain of 37.6% is well ahead of the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF's (SPY) and Invesco QQQ ETF's (QQQ) YTD return of 25.4% and 28.8%, respectively.<blockquote>ADBE 和 MSFT 股票今年的表现轻松跑赢大盘。MSFT 股票在这方面处于领先地位，年初至今涨幅为 54.3%。虽然 ADBE 股票最初在 3 月份表现挣扎，但其上涨势头已显着恢复。其年初至今的涨幅为 37.6%，远远领先于 SPDR 标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）和景顺 QQQ ETF（QQQ）的年初至今回报率分别为 25.4% 和 28.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99bfbaccbc2e6a4f815d081612501c82\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">ADBE Vs. MSFT stock 3Y performance (as of 19 November 21).<blockquote>ADBE 与 MSFT 股票 3 年表现（截至 21 年 11 月 19 日）。</blockquote> As long-term leaders, we also want to evaluate their performances over a longer timeframe. On a 3Y basis, we can also easily observe their outperformance. MSFT leads with a 3Y total return of 216.8%, at a CAGR of 46.7%. It's a phenomenal return and definitely not an \"old-school\" company that MSFT detractors often point out. The market loves MSFT stock.<blockquote>作为长期领导者，我们也希望在更长的时间内评估他们的表现。在3年的基础上，我们也可以很容易地观察到他们的优异表现。MSFT 以 216.8% 的 3 年总回报率领先，CAGR 为 46.7%。这是一个惊人的回报，绝对不是 MSFT 批评者经常指出的“老派”公司。市场喜欢 MSFT 股票。</blockquote> On the other hand, ADBE stock has also easily beaten the market over the last three years. Its 3Y total return of 188.2%, at a CAGR of 42.1%, is also breathtaking. So both stocks have clearly and easily outperformed the market over the last three years.<blockquote>另一方面，ADBE股票在过去三年中也轻松跑赢了市场。其 3 年总回报率为 188.2%，CAGR 为 42.1%，也令人叹为观止。因此，这两只股票在过去三年中都明显轻松地跑赢了市场。</blockquote> Therefore, we consider both stocks as solid long-term leaders in any growth investor's portfolio.<blockquote>因此，我们认为这两只股票都是任何成长型投资者投资组合中可靠的长期领导者。</blockquote> Both are Fast-Growing and Tremendously Profitable<blockquote>两者都发展迅速，利润丰厚</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/517349e87627e8e2f390deb448800ef2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Microsoft LTM revenue and EBITDA margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>微软LTM收入和EBITDA利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> There's little doubt that Microsoft is the world's foremost enterprise software market leader. Its last-twelve-months (LTM) revenue of $176.3B easily surpassed Adobe's LTM revenue of $15.1B. Microsoft's revenue also grew by a remarkable CAGR of 15.3% over the last three years. Moreover, its LTM EBITDA margin of 48.6% demonstrates clearly the incredible profitability of Microsoft's well-diversified business model. It has also continued to gain operating leverage impressively over the last three years. Back in FQ1'19 (September 18), its EBITDA margin was just 41.4%.<blockquote>毫无疑问，微软是世界上最重要的企业软件市场领导者。其过去 12 个月 (LTM) 收入为 176.3B 美元，轻松超过 Adobe 的 LTM 收入 15.1B 美元。微软的收入在过去三年中也以 15.3% 的显著复合年增长率增长。此外，其 48.6% 的 LTM EBITDA 利润率清楚地表明了微软多元化商业模式令人难以置信的盈利能力。在过去三年中，它还继续大幅增加运营杠杆。早在 2019 年第一季度（9 月 18 日），其 EBITDA 利润率仅为 41.4%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f2fc577d2f36a621eaa5eb693e3bcf7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Adobe LTM revenue and EBITDA margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Adobe LTM收入和EBITDA利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d21e97ef4419da68ba36792ec4c26245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Computer graphics and photo editing software market share worldwide in 2021. Data source: Enlyft<blockquote>2021年全球计算机图形和照片编辑软件市场份额。数据来源：Enlyft</blockquote> For investors not in the creative industries, you might be unfamiliar with Adobe's suite of creative software products. Nonetheless, Adobe is the undisputed market leader in its field. Adobe's digital media segment, which forms most of our internal valuation estimates, is its critical revenue and profit driver. Its creative cloud business within Adobe's digital media segment drove 82.8% of its FQ3'21 revenue. Readers can easily observe from the chart above that the leadership of its creative suite is deeply entrenched. There are simply no close competitors.<blockquote>对于不在创意产业的投资者来说，你可能不熟悉Adobe的创意软件产品套件。尽管如此，Adobe是该领域无可争议的市场领导者。Adobe 的数字媒体部门构成了我们的大部分内部估值估计，是其关键的收入和利润驱动力。Adobe 数字媒体部门的创意云业务贡献了 2021 年第三季度 82.8% 的收入。读者可以很容易地从上面的图表中观察到，其创意套件的领导地位根深蒂固。根本没有接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> The company has also grown its revenue impressively over the last three years. Its LTM revenue of $15.1B increased at a 3Y CAGR of 20.8%. In addition, its undisputed leadership has also led to remarkable EBITDA margins. ADBE reported an LTM EBITDA margin of 40.4% in FQ3'21. In contrast, its EBITDA margin was just 36% three years ago. Hence, Adobe has continued to gain impressive operating leverage as it scales. Moreover, the company continues to tap an expanding TAM that's expected to reach $147B by 2023.<blockquote>该公司在过去三年中的收入也大幅增长。其 LTM 收入为 $15.1B，3 年复合年增长率为 20.8%。此外，其无可争议的领导地位也带来了出色的 EBITDA 利润率。ADBE 报告 2021 年第三季度 LTM EBITDA 利润率为 40.4%。相比之下，三年前其 EBITDA 利润率仅为 36%。因此，随着规模的扩大，Adobe继续获得令人印象深刻的运营杠杆。此外，该公司继续利用不断扩大的 TAM，预计到 2023 年将达到 $147B。</blockquote> World-Class CEOs Lead Both Companies<blockquote>世界级首席执行官领导两家公司</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be0bdce70c0fa6ed792e87198796f0d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Cloud infrastructure services vendor market share as of Q3'21. Data source: Canalys<blockquote>截至2021年第三季度的云基础设施服务供应商市场份额。数据来源：Canalys</blockquote> Two top CEOs lead both companies. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella turned Microsoft back into a growth company when he took over the helm. He saw the importance of Cloud Computing and positioned Azure to compete in the Cloud infrastructure market. As a result, Azure has continued to gain share rapidly. In CQ3'21, Azure's share reached 21%, according to Canalys. Although AWS continues to be the market leader, Azure has the edge over AWS in enterprise applications which is not AWS's core competency. Moreover, Microsoft is also extending its capability into applications for the metaverse. Nadella also has a highly impressive&nbsp;97% approval rating&nbsp;at Glassdoor.<blockquote>两家公司均由两位高级首席执行官领导。微软首席执行官萨蒂亚·纳德拉 (Satya Nadella) 上任后，将微软变回了一家成长型公司。他看到了云计算的重要性，并将Azure定位为在云基础设施市场竞争。因此，Azure 继续快速增加份额。根据 Canalys 的数据，在 2021 年第三季度，Azure 的份额达到了 21%。尽管AWS仍然是市场领导者，但Azure在企业应用方面比AWS更有优势，这不是AWS的核心竞争力。此外，微软还将其功能扩展到元宇宙的应用中。纳德拉在Glassdoor的支持率也高达97%，令人印象深刻。</blockquote> Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen is the #2 CEO in Glassdoor's Top CEOs 2021 category. He also has a&nbsp;98% approval ratings&nbsp;in Glassdoor. Narayen, like his Microsoft counterpart Nadella, also hails from Hyderabad, a city in India. Narayen was also instrumental in having led Adobe to transfer its offerings into the Cloud. However, a massive transformation came with short-term pain early on as the revenue recognition for subscriptions was different from its upfront revenue recognition back then.<blockquote>Adobe首席执行官Shantanu Narayen是Glassdoor 2021年顶级首席执行官类别的第二名首席执行官。他在Glassdoor也有98%的支持率。纳拉延和他的微软同行纳德拉一样，也来自印度的海德拉巴。Narayen还在领导Adobe将其产品转移到云中方面发挥了重要作用。然而，大规模的转型在早期伴随着短期痛苦，因为订阅的收入确认与当时的前期收入确认不同。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0542f034da9bbcde81eddf509fbade46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Adobe Creative &amp; Document Cloud annual recurring revenue. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>Adobe Creative &amp; Document Cloud 年度经常性收入。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> But, the transformation has proven so successful for Adobe. The company now boasts one of the most massive annual recurring revenue (ARR) in the SaaS business. Adobe reported an ARR of $11.66B in FQ3'21, which increased by a remarkable 3Y CAGR of 22.1%. The company also guided for an FQ4'21 ARR of $12.21B, up 20% YoY. Therefore, Adobe is expected to continue its gangbusters growth momentum.<blockquote>但是，事实证明，这种转变对Adobe来说是如此成功。该公司现在拥有SaaS业务中最大的年度经常性收入（ARR）之一。Adobe 报告 2021 年第三季度的 ARR 为 11.66B 美元，3 年 CAGR 显著增长 22.1%。该公司还预计 2021 年第四季度 ARR 为 $12.21B，同比增长 20%。因此，Adobe预计将继续其重磅增长势头。</blockquote> So, is ADBE and MSFT Stock a Buy Now?<blockquote>那么，ADBE 和 MSFT 股票现在值得买入吗？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c2c34259c409fb5afc7b9770deb419a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Adobe est. revenue and EBITDA mean consensus. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>土坯是。收入和 EBITDA 意味着共识。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a409f2afdd0fab713f5748be78a261a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Microsoft est. revenue and EBITDA mean consensus. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>微软是。收入和 EBITDA 意味着共识。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> Adobe is expected to grow its revenue at a CAGR of 14.7% over the next five years. In addition, its EBITDA is estimated to increase at a CAGR of 15.1% over the same period. Therefore, ADBE is expected to continue growing robustly, even though its topline and profitability will decelerate.<blockquote>Adobe 预计未来五年的收入复合年增长率将达到 14.7%。此外，其 EBITDA 预计同期复合年增长率为 15.1%。因此，尽管ADBE的营收和盈利能力将放缓，但预计ADBE仍将继续强劲增长。</blockquote> In contrast, Microsoft is estimated to increase its revenue at a 4Y CAGR of 13.8%. However, its EBITDA is estimated to grow at a CAGR of just 6.3% over the next four years, signifying a marked slowdown in EBITDA growth. Therefore, there's a valid concern of slowing growth on both software titans, with Microsoft's looking markedly worse off.<blockquote>相比之下，微软的收入预计将以 13.8% 的 4 年复合年增长率增长。然而，其 EBITDA 预计未来四年的复合年增长率仅为 6.3%，这意味着 EBITDA 增长将明显放缓。因此，有理由担心两家软件巨头的增长放缓，微软的情况明显更糟。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/570d068f004efa2de56f66ce506c723c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MSFT stock EV/Fwd EBITDA valuation trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>MSFT 股票 EV/Fwd EBITDA 估值趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adae720194f5c03c18c5ac7b6d91e590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">ADBE stock EV/Fwd EBITDA valuation trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>ADBE 股票 EV/Fwd EBITDA 估值趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> ADBE stock currently trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 37.4x, about 29.4% above its 3Y mean of 28.9x. Therefore, there's no question that ADBE is trading at a premium valuation. Notwithstanding, it's expected to continue gaining operating leverage remarkably, although it seems that a considerable amount of growth premium may have been priced in. But, ADBE is a solid long-term stock. I wouldn't bet against Narayen &amp; Co.'s capability to execute immaculately moving forward. However, the current valuation is a concern for new exposure in the short term. The stock has also recovered remarkably well from its recent October bottom. Therefore, we suggest investors wait for a meaningful retracement before adding. Hence, we revise our rating to short-term Neutral but retain our long-term bullish call.<blockquote>ADBE 股票目前的 EV/NTM EBITDA 为 37.4 倍，比 3 年平均水平 28.9 倍高出约 29.4%。因此，毫无疑问，ADBE 的交易估值较高。尽管如此，预计它将继续显着增加运营杠杆，尽管似乎已经消化了大量的增长溢价。但是，ADBE 是一只可靠的长期股票。我不会打赌Narayen&amp;Co.有能力完美地向前发展。然而，目前的估值是对短期内新风险敞口的担忧。该股也从最近 10 月份的底部反弹得非常好。因此，我们建议投资者在追加之前等待有意义的回撤。因此，我们将评级修改为短期中性，但维持长期看涨看涨期权。</blockquote> MSFT stock is trading at an EV/Fwd EBITDA of 25.1x, against its 3Y mean of 19.2x. Even though MSFT is still expected to grow its topline reasonably fast, its EBITDA growth is expected to decelerate markedly. Therefore, MSFT stock's valuation seems to have priced in a significant amount of growth premium over the next few years. As such, we remain very cautious about adding MSFT stock at this level. Consequently, we retain our Neutral rating on MSFT stock.<blockquote>MSFT 股票的 EV/Fwd EBITDA 为 25.1 倍，而 3 年平均水平为 19.2 倍。尽管预计 MSFT 的营收增长仍将相当快，但其 EBITDA 增长预计将明显放缓。因此，MSFT股票的估值似乎已经在未来几年内定价了大量的增长溢价。因此，我们对在这个水平上增持 MSFT 股票仍然非常谨慎。因此，我们维持对 MSFT 股票的中性评级。</blockquote> Nevertheless, we would like to remind investors that both stocks are two of the best anchor growth stocks that investors can continue to hold if you own them. Therefore, if there's a meaningful retracement moving forward, we encourage you to add more exposure to either of them.<blockquote>尽管如此，我们还是要提醒投资者，这两只股票都是投资者如果持有的话可以继续持有的两只最佳锚定增长股票。因此，如果未来出现有意义的回撤，我们鼓励您增加其中任何一个的敞口。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe Vs. Microsoft Stock: 2 Long-Term Leaders To Dominate The Software Space<blockquote>Adobe 与微软股票：两家长期领导者将主导软件领域</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe Vs. Microsoft Stock: 2 Long-Term Leaders To Dominate The Software Space<blockquote>Adobe 与微软股票：两家长期领导者将主导软件领域</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-11-22 13:35\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Microsoft continues its reign as the King of Software as its enterprise value crosses $2.5T. It's also making forays into enterprise applications for the metaverse.</li> <li>Adobe continues to be the undisputed leader in the creative software market. Its 2023 TAM of $147B signifies huge opportunities for the company to leverage.</li> <li>We discuss why both companies deserve to be anchor stocks for any growth investor's portfolio.</li> <li>We also discuss whether it's a good time to buy both stocks now.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78cf4b56323a37eacd27b73ced593338\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1082\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Jean-Luc Ichard/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>微软继续保持软件之王的地位，其企业价值突破 2.5 万亿美元。它还涉足元宇宙的企业应用。</li><li>Adobe仍然是创意软件市场无可争议的领导者。其 2023 年 TAM 为 1470 亿美元，意味着该公司可以利用巨大的机会。</li><li>我们讨论为什么这两家公司都值得成为任何成长型投资者投资组合的主要股票。</li><li>我们还讨论现在是否是购买这两只股票的好时机。</li></ul>Jean-Luc Ichard/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Adobe Inc. (ADBE) and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) are two of the most revered software leaders worldwide. Notwithstanding, MSFT is easily the bigger brother here as it boasts an enterprise value (EV) of $2.52T. In contrast, ADBE's EV is only worth $326B, as it trails the King of Software by a wide margin. Despite that, Adobe has been growing rapidly and has an exceptionally wide moat in the creative industries. It has also extended its leadership into both the B2B and B2C channels, as it leverages its huge 2023 TAM worth $147B. Therefore, there's a tremendous amount of potential growth for the creative software leader to tap.<blockquote>Adobe Inc. (ADBE) 和微软公司 (MSFT) 是全球最受尊敬的两个软件领导者。尽管如此，MSFT 还是轻松成为这里的老大哥，因为它拥有 2.52 吨的企业价值 (EV)。相比之下，ADBE 的电动汽车仅价值 326B 美元，远远落后于软件之王。尽管如此，Adobe一直在快速增长，并在创意产业拥有异常广泛的护城河。它还利用其价值 1470 亿美元的 2023 年巨额 TAM，将其领导地位扩展到 B2B 和 B2C 渠道。因此，这位富有创造力的软件领导者有着巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote> On the other hand, Microsoft has quickly pivoted itself towards Cloud Computing as its biggest growth driver. Under Satya Nadella's capable leadership, MSFT has transformed itself into a leading Cloud hyperscaler. Azure continues to grow its clout rapidly as it leverages MSFT's deep enterprise software applications expertise against the #1 Cloud hyperscaler AWS (AMZN). The company has also telegraphed its plans to spur its next growth phase through enterprise applications in the metaverse.<blockquote>另一方面，微软已迅速将云计算作为其最大的增长动力。在 Satya Nadella 的干练领导下，MSFT 已转型为领先的云超大规模企业。Azure继续快速增长其影响力，因为它利用MSFT深厚的企业软件应用专业知识来对抗排名第一的云超大规模公司AWS（AMZN）。该公司还表示计划通过元宇宙的企业应用来刺激下一阶段的增长。</blockquote> We discuss these two software behemoths and demonstrate why both companies are very high-quality companies. As a result, we believe that both deserve to be considered anchor stocks for most growth investors' portfolios.<blockquote>我们讨论这两家软件巨头，并展示为什么这两家公司都是非常高质量的公司。因此，我们认为两者都值得被视为大多数成长型投资者投资组合的锚股票。</blockquote> We also discuss whether it's an appropriate time to buy both stocks now.<blockquote>我们还讨论现在是否是购买这两只股票的合适时机。</blockquote> ADBE Vs. MSFT Stock YTD Performance<blockquote>ADBE 与 MSFT 股票年初至今表现</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c95ae8c533f02f2af083ceee62bf9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">ADBE Vs. MSFT stock YTD performance (as of 19 November 21).<blockquote>ADBE 与 MSFT 股票年初至今表现（截至 21 年 11 月 19 日）。</blockquote> ADBE and MSFT stock have easily outperformed the market this year. MSFT stock is the leader here, with a YTD gain of 54.3%. While ADBE stock struggled initially in March, its upward momentum has recovered remarkably. Its YTD gain of 37.6% is well ahead of the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF's (SPY) and Invesco QQQ ETF's (QQQ) YTD return of 25.4% and 28.8%, respectively.<blockquote>ADBE 和 MSFT 股票今年的表现轻松跑赢大盘。MSFT 股票在这方面处于领先地位，年初至今涨幅为 54.3%。虽然 ADBE 股票最初在 3 月份表现挣扎，但其上涨势头已显着恢复。其年初至今的涨幅为 37.6%，远远领先于 SPDR 标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）和景顺 QQQ ETF（QQQ）的年初至今回报率分别为 25.4% 和 28.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99bfbaccbc2e6a4f815d081612501c82\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">ADBE Vs. MSFT stock 3Y performance (as of 19 November 21).<blockquote>ADBE 与 MSFT 股票 3 年表现（截至 21 年 11 月 19 日）。</blockquote> As long-term leaders, we also want to evaluate their performances over a longer timeframe. On a 3Y basis, we can also easily observe their outperformance. MSFT leads with a 3Y total return of 216.8%, at a CAGR of 46.7%. It's a phenomenal return and definitely not an \"old-school\" company that MSFT detractors often point out. The market loves MSFT stock.<blockquote>作为长期领导者，我们也希望在更长的时间内评估他们的表现。在3年的基础上，我们也可以很容易地观察到他们的优异表现。MSFT 以 216.8% 的 3 年总回报率领先，CAGR 为 46.7%。这是一个惊人的回报，绝对不是 MSFT 批评者经常指出的“老派”公司。市场喜欢 MSFT 股票。</blockquote> On the other hand, ADBE stock has also easily beaten the market over the last three years. Its 3Y total return of 188.2%, at a CAGR of 42.1%, is also breathtaking. So both stocks have clearly and easily outperformed the market over the last three years.<blockquote>另一方面，ADBE股票在过去三年中也轻松跑赢了市场。其 3 年总回报率为 188.2%，CAGR 为 42.1%，也令人叹为观止。因此，这两只股票在过去三年中都明显轻松地跑赢了市场。</blockquote> Therefore, we consider both stocks as solid long-term leaders in any growth investor's portfolio.<blockquote>因此，我们认为这两只股票都是任何成长型投资者投资组合中可靠的长期领导者。</blockquote> Both are Fast-Growing and Tremendously Profitable<blockquote>两者都发展迅速，利润丰厚</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/517349e87627e8e2f390deb448800ef2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Microsoft LTM revenue and EBITDA margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>微软LTM收入和EBITDA利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> There's little doubt that Microsoft is the world's foremost enterprise software market leader. Its last-twelve-months (LTM) revenue of $176.3B easily surpassed Adobe's LTM revenue of $15.1B. Microsoft's revenue also grew by a remarkable CAGR of 15.3% over the last three years. Moreover, its LTM EBITDA margin of 48.6% demonstrates clearly the incredible profitability of Microsoft's well-diversified business model. It has also continued to gain operating leverage impressively over the last three years. Back in FQ1'19 (September 18), its EBITDA margin was just 41.4%.<blockquote>毫无疑问，微软是世界上最重要的企业软件市场领导者。其过去 12 个月 (LTM) 收入为 176.3B 美元，轻松超过 Adobe 的 LTM 收入 15.1B 美元。微软的收入在过去三年中也以 15.3% 的显著复合年增长率增长。此外，其 48.6% 的 LTM EBITDA 利润率清楚地表明了微软多元化商业模式令人难以置信的盈利能力。在过去三年中，它还继续大幅增加运营杠杆。早在 2019 年第一季度（9 月 18 日），其 EBITDA 利润率仅为 41.4%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f2fc577d2f36a621eaa5eb693e3bcf7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Adobe LTM revenue and EBITDA margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Adobe LTM收入和EBITDA利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d21e97ef4419da68ba36792ec4c26245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Computer graphics and photo editing software market share worldwide in 2021. Data source: Enlyft<blockquote>2021年全球计算机图形和照片编辑软件市场份额。数据来源：Enlyft</blockquote> For investors not in the creative industries, you might be unfamiliar with Adobe's suite of creative software products. Nonetheless, Adobe is the undisputed market leader in its field. Adobe's digital media segment, which forms most of our internal valuation estimates, is its critical revenue and profit driver. Its creative cloud business within Adobe's digital media segment drove 82.8% of its FQ3'21 revenue. Readers can easily observe from the chart above that the leadership of its creative suite is deeply entrenched. There are simply no close competitors.<blockquote>对于不在创意产业的投资者来说，你可能不熟悉Adobe的创意软件产品套件。尽管如此，Adobe是该领域无可争议的市场领导者。Adobe 的数字媒体部门构成了我们的大部分内部估值估计，是其关键的收入和利润驱动力。Adobe 数字媒体部门的创意云业务贡献了 2021 年第三季度 82.8% 的收入。读者可以很容易地从上面的图表中观察到，其创意套件的领导地位根深蒂固。根本没有接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> The company has also grown its revenue impressively over the last three years. Its LTM revenue of $15.1B increased at a 3Y CAGR of 20.8%. In addition, its undisputed leadership has also led to remarkable EBITDA margins. ADBE reported an LTM EBITDA margin of 40.4% in FQ3'21. In contrast, its EBITDA margin was just 36% three years ago. Hence, Adobe has continued to gain impressive operating leverage as it scales. Moreover, the company continues to tap an expanding TAM that's expected to reach $147B by 2023.<blockquote>该公司在过去三年中的收入也大幅增长。其 LTM 收入为 $15.1B，3 年复合年增长率为 20.8%。此外，其无可争议的领导地位也带来了出色的 EBITDA 利润率。ADBE 报告 2021 年第三季度 LTM EBITDA 利润率为 40.4%。相比之下，三年前其 EBITDA 利润率仅为 36%。因此，随着规模的扩大，Adobe继续获得令人印象深刻的运营杠杆。此外，该公司继续利用不断扩大的 TAM，预计到 2023 年将达到 $147B。</blockquote> World-Class CEOs Lead Both Companies<blockquote>世界级首席执行官领导两家公司</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be0bdce70c0fa6ed792e87198796f0d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Cloud infrastructure services vendor market share as of Q3'21. Data source: Canalys<blockquote>截至2021年第三季度的云基础设施服务供应商市场份额。数据来源：Canalys</blockquote> Two top CEOs lead both companies. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella turned Microsoft back into a growth company when he took over the helm. He saw the importance of Cloud Computing and positioned Azure to compete in the Cloud infrastructure market. As a result, Azure has continued to gain share rapidly. In CQ3'21, Azure's share reached 21%, according to Canalys. Although AWS continues to be the market leader, Azure has the edge over AWS in enterprise applications which is not AWS's core competency. Moreover, Microsoft is also extending its capability into applications for the metaverse. Nadella also has a highly impressive&nbsp;97% approval rating&nbsp;at Glassdoor.<blockquote>两家公司均由两位高级首席执行官领导。微软首席执行官萨蒂亚·纳德拉 (Satya Nadella) 上任后，将微软变回了一家成长型公司。他看到了云计算的重要性，并将Azure定位为在云基础设施市场竞争。因此，Azure 继续快速增加份额。根据 Canalys 的数据，在 2021 年第三季度，Azure 的份额达到了 21%。尽管AWS仍然是市场领导者，但Azure在企业应用方面比AWS更有优势，这不是AWS的核心竞争力。此外，微软还将其功能扩展到元宇宙的应用中。纳德拉在Glassdoor的支持率也高达97%，令人印象深刻。</blockquote> Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen is the #2 CEO in Glassdoor's Top CEOs 2021 category. He also has a&nbsp;98% approval ratings&nbsp;in Glassdoor. Narayen, like his Microsoft counterpart Nadella, also hails from Hyderabad, a city in India. Narayen was also instrumental in having led Adobe to transfer its offerings into the Cloud. However, a massive transformation came with short-term pain early on as the revenue recognition for subscriptions was different from its upfront revenue recognition back then.<blockquote>Adobe首席执行官Shantanu Narayen是Glassdoor 2021年顶级首席执行官类别的第二名首席执行官。他在Glassdoor也有98%的支持率。纳拉延和他的微软同行纳德拉一样，也来自印度的海德拉巴。Narayen还在领导Adobe将其产品转移到云中方面发挥了重要作用。然而，大规模的转型在早期伴随着短期痛苦，因为订阅的收入确认与当时的前期收入确认不同。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0542f034da9bbcde81eddf509fbade46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Adobe Creative &amp; Document Cloud annual recurring revenue. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>Adobe Creative &amp; Document Cloud 年度经常性收入。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> But, the transformation has proven so successful for Adobe. The company now boasts one of the most massive annual recurring revenue (ARR) in the SaaS business. Adobe reported an ARR of $11.66B in FQ3'21, which increased by a remarkable 3Y CAGR of 22.1%. The company also guided for an FQ4'21 ARR of $12.21B, up 20% YoY. Therefore, Adobe is expected to continue its gangbusters growth momentum.<blockquote>但是，事实证明，这种转变对Adobe来说是如此成功。该公司现在拥有SaaS业务中最大的年度经常性收入（ARR）之一。Adobe 报告 2021 年第三季度的 ARR 为 11.66B 美元，3 年 CAGR 显著增长 22.1%。该公司还预计 2021 年第四季度 ARR 为 $12.21B，同比增长 20%。因此，Adobe预计将继续其重磅增长势头。</blockquote> So, is ADBE and MSFT Stock a Buy Now?<blockquote>那么，ADBE 和 MSFT 股票现在值得买入吗？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c2c34259c409fb5afc7b9770deb419a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Adobe est. revenue and EBITDA mean consensus. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>土坯是。收入和 EBITDA 意味着共识。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a409f2afdd0fab713f5748be78a261a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Microsoft est. revenue and EBITDA mean consensus. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>微软是。收入和 EBITDA 意味着共识。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> Adobe is expected to grow its revenue at a CAGR of 14.7% over the next five years. In addition, its EBITDA is estimated to increase at a CAGR of 15.1% over the same period. Therefore, ADBE is expected to continue growing robustly, even though its topline and profitability will decelerate.<blockquote>Adobe 预计未来五年的收入复合年增长率将达到 14.7%。此外，其 EBITDA 预计同期复合年增长率为 15.1%。因此，尽管ADBE的营收和盈利能力将放缓，但预计ADBE仍将继续强劲增长。</blockquote> In contrast, Microsoft is estimated to increase its revenue at a 4Y CAGR of 13.8%. However, its EBITDA is estimated to grow at a CAGR of just 6.3% over the next four years, signifying a marked slowdown in EBITDA growth. Therefore, there's a valid concern of slowing growth on both software titans, with Microsoft's looking markedly worse off.<blockquote>相比之下，微软的收入预计将以 13.8% 的 4 年复合年增长率增长。然而，其 EBITDA 预计未来四年的复合年增长率仅为 6.3%，这意味着 EBITDA 增长将明显放缓。因此，有理由担心两家软件巨头的增长放缓，微软的情况明显更糟。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/570d068f004efa2de56f66ce506c723c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MSFT stock EV/Fwd EBITDA valuation trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>MSFT 股票 EV/Fwd EBITDA 估值趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adae720194f5c03c18c5ac7b6d91e590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">ADBE stock EV/Fwd EBITDA valuation trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>ADBE 股票 EV/Fwd EBITDA 估值趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> ADBE stock currently trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 37.4x, about 29.4% above its 3Y mean of 28.9x. Therefore, there's no question that ADBE is trading at a premium valuation. Notwithstanding, it's expected to continue gaining operating leverage remarkably, although it seems that a considerable amount of growth premium may have been priced in. But, ADBE is a solid long-term stock. I wouldn't bet against Narayen &amp; Co.'s capability to execute immaculately moving forward. However, the current valuation is a concern for new exposure in the short term. The stock has also recovered remarkably well from its recent October bottom. Therefore, we suggest investors wait for a meaningful retracement before adding. Hence, we revise our rating to short-term Neutral but retain our long-term bullish call.<blockquote>ADBE 股票目前的 EV/NTM EBITDA 为 37.4 倍，比 3 年平均水平 28.9 倍高出约 29.4%。因此，毫无疑问，ADBE 的交易估值较高。尽管如此，预计它将继续显着增加运营杠杆，尽管似乎已经消化了大量的增长溢价。但是，ADBE 是一只可靠的长期股票。我不会打赌Narayen&amp;Co.有能力完美地向前发展。然而，目前的估值是对短期内新风险敞口的担忧。该股也从最近 10 月份的底部反弹得非常好。因此，我们建议投资者在追加之前等待有意义的回撤。因此，我们将评级修改为短期中性，但维持长期看涨看涨期权。</blockquote> MSFT stock is trading at an EV/Fwd EBITDA of 25.1x, against its 3Y mean of 19.2x. Even though MSFT is still expected to grow its topline reasonably fast, its EBITDA growth is expected to decelerate markedly. Therefore, MSFT stock's valuation seems to have priced in a significant amount of growth premium over the next few years. As such, we remain very cautious about adding MSFT stock at this level. Consequently, we retain our Neutral rating on MSFT stock.<blockquote>MSFT 股票的 EV/Fwd EBITDA 为 25.1 倍，而 3 年平均水平为 19.2 倍。尽管预计 MSFT 的营收增长仍将相当快，但其 EBITDA 增长预计将明显放缓。因此，MSFT股票的估值似乎已经在未来几年内定价了大量的增长溢价。因此，我们对在这个水平上增持 MSFT 股票仍然非常谨慎。因此，我们维持对 MSFT 股票的中性评级。</blockquote> Nevertheless, we would like to remind investors that both stocks are two of the best anchor growth stocks that investors can continue to hold if you own them. Therefore, if there's a meaningful retracement moving forward, we encourage you to add more exposure to either of them.<blockquote>尽管如此，我们还是要提醒投资者，这两只股票都是投资者如果持有的话可以继续持有的两只最佳锚定增长股票。因此，如果未来出现有意义的回撤，我们鼓励您增加其中任何一个的敞口。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471088-adobe-vs-microsoft-stock-two-long-term-leaders-to-dominate-the-software-space\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471088-adobe-vs-microsoft-stock-two-long-term-leaders-to-dominate-the-software-space","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159890392","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft continues its reign as the King of Software as its enterprise value crosses $2.5T. It's also making forays into enterprise applications for the metaverse.\nAdobe continues to be the undisputed leader in the creative software market. Its 2023 TAM of $147B signifies huge opportunities for the company to leverage.\nWe discuss why both companies deserve to be anchor stocks for any growth investor's portfolio.\nWe also discuss whether it's a good time to buy both stocks now.\n\nJean-Luc Ichard/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nAdobe Inc. (ADBE) and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) are two of the most revered software leaders worldwide. Notwithstanding, MSFT is easily the bigger brother here as it boasts an enterprise value (EV) of $2.52T. In contrast, ADBE's EV is only worth $326B, as it trails the King of Software by a wide margin. Despite that, Adobe has been growing rapidly and has an exceptionally wide moat in the creative industries. It has also extended its leadership into both the B2B and B2C channels, as it leverages its huge 2023 TAM worth $147B. Therefore, there's a tremendous amount of potential growth for the creative software leader to tap.\nOn the other hand, Microsoft has quickly pivoted itself towards Cloud Computing as its biggest growth driver. Under Satya Nadella's capable leadership, MSFT has transformed itself into a leading Cloud hyperscaler. Azure continues to grow its clout rapidly as it leverages MSFT's deep enterprise software applications expertise against the #1 Cloud hyperscaler AWS (AMZN). The company has also telegraphed its plans to spur its next growth phase through enterprise applications in the metaverse.\nWe discuss these two software behemoths and demonstrate why both companies are very high-quality companies. As a result, we believe that both deserve to be considered anchor stocks for most growth investors' portfolios.\nWe also discuss whether it's an appropriate time to buy both stocks now.\nADBE Vs. MSFT Stock YTD Performance\nADBE Vs. MSFT stock YTD performance (as of 19 November 21).\nADBE and MSFT stock have easily outperformed the market this year. MSFT stock is the leader here, with a YTD gain of 54.3%. While ADBE stock struggled initially in March, its upward momentum has recovered remarkably. Its YTD gain of 37.6% is well ahead of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF's (SPY) and Invesco QQQ ETF's (QQQ) YTD return of 25.4% and 28.8%, respectively.\nADBE Vs. MSFT stock 3Y performance (as of 19 November 21).\nAs long-term leaders, we also want to evaluate their performances over a longer timeframe. On a 3Y basis, we can also easily observe their outperformance. MSFT leads with a 3Y total return of 216.8%, at a CAGR of 46.7%. It's a phenomenal return and definitely not an \"old-school\" company that MSFT detractors often point out. The market loves MSFT stock.\nOn the other hand, ADBE stock has also easily beaten the market over the last three years. Its 3Y total return of 188.2%, at a CAGR of 42.1%, is also breathtaking. So both stocks have clearly and easily outperformed the market over the last three years.\nTherefore, we consider both stocks as solid long-term leaders in any growth investor's portfolio.\nBoth are Fast-Growing and Tremendously Profitable\nMicrosoft LTM revenue and EBITDA margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nThere's little doubt that Microsoft is the world's foremost enterprise software market leader. Its last-twelve-months (LTM) revenue of $176.3B easily surpassed Adobe's LTM revenue of $15.1B. Microsoft's revenue also grew by a remarkable CAGR of 15.3% over the last three years. Moreover, its LTM EBITDA margin of 48.6% demonstrates clearly the incredible profitability of Microsoft's well-diversified business model. It has also continued to gain operating leverage impressively over the last three years. Back in FQ1'19 (September 18), its EBITDA margin was just 41.4%.\nAdobe LTM revenue and EBITDA margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nComputer graphics and photo editing software market share worldwide in 2021. Data source: Enlyft\nFor investors not in the creative industries, you might be unfamiliar with Adobe's suite of creative software products. Nonetheless, Adobe is the undisputed market leader in its field. Adobe's digital media segment, which forms most of our internal valuation estimates, is its critical revenue and profit driver. Its creative cloud business within Adobe's digital media segment drove 82.8% of its FQ3'21 revenue. Readers can easily observe from the chart above that the leadership of its creative suite is deeply entrenched. There are simply no close competitors.\nThe company has also grown its revenue impressively over the last three years. Its LTM revenue of $15.1B increased at a 3Y CAGR of 20.8%. In addition, its undisputed leadership has also led to remarkable EBITDA margins. ADBE reported an LTM EBITDA margin of 40.4% in FQ3'21. In contrast, its EBITDA margin was just 36% three years ago. Hence, Adobe has continued to gain impressive operating leverage as it scales. Moreover, the company continues to tap an expanding TAM that's expected to reach $147B by 2023.\nWorld-Class CEOs Lead Both Companies\nCloud infrastructure services vendor market share as of Q3'21. Data source: Canalys\nTwo top CEOs lead both companies. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella turned Microsoft back into a growth company when he took over the helm. He saw the importance of Cloud Computing and positioned Azure to compete in the Cloud infrastructure market. As a result, Azure has continued to gain share rapidly. In CQ3'21, Azure's share reached 21%, according to Canalys. Although AWS continues to be the market leader, Azure has the edge over AWS in enterprise applications which is not AWS's core competency. Moreover, Microsoft is also extending its capability into applications for the metaverse. Nadella also has a highly impressive 97% approval rating at Glassdoor.\nAdobe CEO Shantanu Narayen is the #2 CEO in Glassdoor's Top CEOs 2021 category. He also has a 98% approval ratings in Glassdoor. Narayen, like his Microsoft counterpart Nadella, also hails from Hyderabad, a city in India. Narayen was also instrumental in having led Adobe to transfer its offerings into the Cloud. However, a massive transformation came with short-term pain early on as the revenue recognition for subscriptions was different from its upfront revenue recognition back then.\nAdobe Creative & Document Cloud annual recurring revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBut, the transformation has proven so successful for Adobe. The company now boasts one of the most massive annual recurring revenue (ARR) in the SaaS business. Adobe reported an ARR of $11.66B in FQ3'21, which increased by a remarkable 3Y CAGR of 22.1%. The company also guided for an FQ4'21 ARR of $12.21B, up 20% YoY. Therefore, Adobe is expected to continue its gangbusters growth momentum.\nSo, is ADBE and MSFT Stock a Buy Now?\nAdobe est. revenue and EBITDA mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nMicrosoft est. revenue and EBITDA mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nAdobe is expected to grow its revenue at a CAGR of 14.7% over the next five years. In addition, its EBITDA is estimated to increase at a CAGR of 15.1% over the same period. Therefore, ADBE is expected to continue growing robustly, even though its topline and profitability will decelerate.\nIn contrast, Microsoft is estimated to increase its revenue at a 4Y CAGR of 13.8%. However, its EBITDA is estimated to grow at a CAGR of just 6.3% over the next four years, signifying a marked slowdown in EBITDA growth. Therefore, there's a valid concern of slowing growth on both software titans, with Microsoft's looking markedly worse off.\nMSFT stock EV/Fwd EBITDA valuation trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nADBE stock EV/Fwd EBITDA valuation trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nADBE stock currently trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 37.4x, about 29.4% above its 3Y mean of 28.9x. Therefore, there's no question that ADBE is trading at a premium valuation. Notwithstanding, it's expected to continue gaining operating leverage remarkably, although it seems that a considerable amount of growth premium may have been priced in. But, ADBE is a solid long-term stock. I wouldn't bet against Narayen & Co.'s capability to execute immaculately moving forward. However, the current valuation is a concern for new exposure in the short term. The stock has also recovered remarkably well from its recent October bottom. Therefore, we suggest investors wait for a meaningful retracement before adding. Hence, we revise our rating to short-term Neutral but retain our long-term bullish call.\nMSFT stock is trading at an EV/Fwd EBITDA of 25.1x, against its 3Y mean of 19.2x. Even though MSFT is still expected to grow its topline reasonably fast, its EBITDA growth is expected to decelerate markedly. Therefore, MSFT stock's valuation seems to have priced in a significant amount of growth premium over the next few years. As such, we remain very cautious about adding MSFT stock at this level. Consequently, we retain our Neutral rating on MSFT stock.\nNevertheless, we would like to remind investors that both stocks are two of the best anchor growth stocks that investors can continue to hold if you own them. Therefore, if there's a meaningful retracement moving forward, we encourage you to add more exposure to either of them.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ADBE":0.9,"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2012,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/872489987"}