comment_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-11-22

comment

Peloton: A Few Bad Quarters Don't Make It A Bad Investment<blockquote>Peloton：几个糟糕的季度并不意味着它是一项糟糕的投资</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":872467439,"tweetId":"872467439","gmtCreate":1637562517041,"gmtModify":1637562517041,"author":{"id":4089432729587530,"idStr":"4089432729587530","authorId":4089432729587530,"authorIdStr":"4089432729587530","name":"MJ_NEO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836cb0b3d682ca6ab11ac6e7ab499b78","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>comment</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>comment</body></html>","text":"comment","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872467439","repostId":1162603487,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162603487","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637561031,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162603487?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 14:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Peloton: A Few Bad Quarters Don't Make It A Bad Investment<blockquote>Peloton：几个糟糕的季度并不意味着它是一项糟糕的投资</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162603487","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPoor Q1 results and a massive guidance cut shocked investors that sent the stock down 30+%.","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Poor Q1 results and a massive guidance cut shocked investors that sent the stock down 30+%.</li> <li>While bears are celebrating, investors shouldn't be too quick to dismiss Peloton's growth potential.</li> <li>Management is delaying gratification to build an ecosystem for tomorrow.</li> <li>An insider has been buying Peloton during the meltdown. So am I.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406ba77444ee9b1c168d04c9cf5ec1ea\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">kali9/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>第一季度业绩不佳和指引大幅下调令投资者感到震惊，导致该股下跌 30% 以上。</li><li>虽然空头正在庆祝，但投资者不应过快忽视 Peloton 的增长潜力。</li><li>管理层正在推迟满足，为明天建立一个生态系统。</li><li>一位内部人士在崩溃期间一直在购买 Peloton。我也是。</li></ul>kali9/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Peloton (PTON) reported disappointing back-to-back quarters. The most recent one was accompanied by a huge revenue guidance cut that lost many investors' confidence. Moreover, the reopening of the economy seemed to play a big role in Peloton's slowdown. Despite all these factors, Peloton still has a long growth runway ahead and the company should rise from the ashes in the following few quarters. Although quite risky, the recent valuation drop makes Peloton a compelling buy.<blockquote>Peloton (PTON) 报告了令人失望的背靠背季度。最近一次伴随着收入指引的大幅下调，失去了许多投资者的信心。此外，经济的重新开放似乎在 Peloton 的放缓中发挥了重要作用。尽管存在所有这些因素，Peloton 仍有很长的增长道路，该公司应该会在接下来的几个季度内浴火重生。尽管风险很大，但最近的估值下降使 Peloton 成为一个引人注目的买入机会。</blockquote> Two Bad Quarters<blockquote>两个糟糕的季度</blockquote> Let’s cut to the chase. Peloton’s most recent quarter performance was abysmal. Many thought that Q4 2021 results were bad enough and that it wouldn’t get worse but guess what? It did get worse, significantly.<blockquote>让我们切入正题。Peloton 最近一个季度的表现糟糕透顶。许多人认为 2021 年第四季度的业绩已经足够糟糕了，不会变得更糟，但你猜怎么着？情况确实变得更糟了，非常严重。</blockquote> Peloton ended Q1 with revenue of $805 million, just 6% higher from the year-ago quarter and down 14% sequentially, but in line with management’s guidance of $800 million. The slowdown in growth was primarily due to weakness in the Connected Fitness segment, posting a 17% YOY decline to $501 million as a result of fewer Bike deliveries, Bike price cut, and Tread recall. This figure also includes about $60 million of contribution from Precor. So excluding Precor, Connected Fitness revenue would have dropped by about 27%, YOY.<blockquote>Peloton 第一季度营收为 8.05 亿美元，比去年同期仅增长 6%，环比下降 14%，但符合管理层 8 亿美元的指导。增长放缓主要是由于互联健身领域的疲软，由于自行车交付减少、自行车降价和胎面召回，同比下降 17% 至 5.01 亿美元。这一数字还包括Precor约6000万美元的捐款。因此，如果不包括 Precor，互联健身收入将同比下降约 27%。</blockquote> On the bright side, subscription revenue growth remained strong, growing 94% YOY to $304 million, driven by an 87% increase in Connected Fitness subscriptions to 2.49 million and a 74% increase in digital subscriptions to 887,000, amassing 6.2 million total members globally. However, monthly churn rate ticked up slightly to 0.82% from the prior quarter’s 0.73%, and both total platform workouts and Average Monthly Workouts per Subscription continued their downtrend, signaling a gradual shift from in-home fitness to gyms.<blockquote>从好的一面来看，订阅收入增长依然强劲，同比增长 94% 至 3.04 亿美元，这得益于联网健身订阅增长 87% 至 249 万，数字订阅增长 74% 至 88.7 万，全球会员总数达到 620 万。不过，月流失率从上一季度的 0.73% 略有上升至 0.82%，平台总锻炼次数和每次订阅的平均月锻炼次数均继续呈下降趋势，标志着从家庭健身逐渐转向健身房。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/298f1830578fdbceb2f7e0732b94b1d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Peloton Q1 2022 Shareholder Letter<blockquote>资料来源：Peloton 2022 年第一季度股东信</blockquote> Seeing Peloton maintain high subscription revenue growth is encouraging as it means that Peloton can rely on stable cash flow while its Connected Fitness segment continues to experience volatility in terms of operating results. Subscription revenue is also the high-margin segment of the Peloton business model. Overall gross margin was 32.6% for Q1 2022. Again, in line with management’s expectations. Product gross margin was 12.0%, as expected given the Bike price reduction, supply chain constraints, and impact from the Tread recall. Subscription gross margin was 66.7%, up 820 basis points.<blockquote>看到 Peloton 保持高订阅收入增长令人鼓舞，因为这意味着 Peloton 可以依靠稳定的现金流，而其互联健身部门的经营业绩继续出现波动。订阅收入也是 Peloton 商业模式的高利润率部分。2022 年第一季度的整体毛利率为 32.6%。同样，符合管理层的期望。考虑到自行车价格下降、供应链限制以及胎面召回的影响，产品毛利率为 12.0%，符合预期。认购毛利率为66.7%，上升820个基点。</blockquote> Q1 Adjusted EBITDA was $(233.7) million. This was the result of revenue growing at only 6% while operating expenses continued to grow at a triple-digit rate. However, it is important to note that the reported Adjusted EBITDA was way less than the $(285) million guided in Q4 2021. Nonetheless, it’s still a considerable cash burn given the size of the company.<blockquote>第一季度调整后 EBITDA 为 (2.337) 亿美元。这是由于收入仅增长 6%，而运营费用继续以三位数的速度增长。然而，值得注意的是，报告的调整后EBITDA远低于2021年第四季度指导的（2.85）亿美元。尽管如此，考虑到公司的规模，这仍然是一笔不小的现金消耗。</blockquote> Peloton ended Q1 with $924 million in cash and cash equivalents, about $600+ million lower than the prior quarter. You can see why Peloton’s balance sheet health scared investors despite its CFO reassuring any liquidity concerns during the&nbsp;earnings call:<blockquote>Peloton 第一季度末拥有 9.24 亿美元现金和现金等价物，比上一季度减少约 6 亿多美元。您可以明白为什么 Peloton 的资产负债表健康状况让投资者感到害怕，尽管其首席财务官在财报看涨期权上对流动性问题表示担忧：</blockquote> I think just cutting to the chase, we don't see the need for any additional capital raise based on our current outlook.As we mentioned, we're taking significant steps to adjust our expenses across COGS and opex with this revised revenue guidance, then we have a lot of levers to pull. In addition, what we're also going to do is reevaluate the cadence of some of the capital investments that we're making, inclusive of POP. And while we know that POP is a decades-long, right-term strategic move for us, there's definitely ways for us to find ways to make that a more economical spend over the next couple of years. (Source: Peloton 2022 Q1 Earnings Call Transcript) (“POP” refers to&nbsp;Peloton Output Park, Peloton’s goal of building its first US factory.)<blockquote>我想开门见山，根据我们目前的前景，我们认为没有必要进行任何额外的融资。正如我们提到的，我们正在采取重大措施，通过修订后的收入指导来调整我们在 COGS 和 opex 方面的费用，然后我们有很多杠杆可以利用。此外，我们还将重新评估我们正在进行的一些资本投资的节奏，包括 POP。虽然我们知道 POP 对我们来说是一项长达数十年的正确战略举措，但我们肯定有办法在未来几年内找到更经济的支出。(资料来源：Peloton 2022 年第一季度财报看涨期权成绩单）（“POP ”指 Peloton 产出园区，Peloton 在美国建立第一家工厂的目标。）</blockquote> A few weeks later, Peloton announced an&nbsp;equity offering&nbsp;of 23,913,043 shares of common stock at $46 per share, totaling $1.07 billion. This dilutes shareholders and makes management looks like liars.<blockquote>几周后，Peloton 宣布以每股 46 美元的价格发行 23,913,043 股普通股，总计 10.7 亿美元。这稀释了股东，让管理层看起来像骗子。</blockquote> It gets worse from here. Management revised down its prior full-year guidance. The introduction of ranges in its guidance also means that there’s a lack of confidence on management’s part, as well as a great deal of uncertainty for Peloton as the economy reopens.<blockquote>从这里开始情况会变得更糟。管理层下调了之前的全年指引。在指导方针中引入范围也意味着管理层缺乏信心，随着经济重新开放，Peloton 也面临着很大的不确定性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bc51c3fe742542b143eedeb5b53a160\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"165\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Peloton Q4 2021 Shareholder Letter, Peloton Q1 2022 Shareholder Letter, and Author’s Figure<blockquote>资料来源：Peloton 2021 年第四季度股东信、Peloton 2022 年第一季度股东信和作者数据</blockquote> Despite all the doom and gloom, I believe the worst is behind Peloton - the Tread has been successfully recalled and the updated guidance has been issued. FY 2022 will be a challenging year for Peloton due to tough YOY comps, people returning to the office, and gyms reopening. Peloton should return to growth mode soon as management continued to pile cash on R&amp;D ($97.7 million in Q1) and CapEx ($87.2 million in Q1). I’m not going to sugarcoat, it’s been a terrible few quarters, and there were some head-scratching moments like the Bike price cut as well as its recent equity raise. But a few bad quarters don’t make Peloton a bad investment.<blockquote>尽管有厄运和黑暗，我相信最糟糕的情况已经过去了——胎面已经被成功召回，更新的指南也已经发布。由于艰难的同比业绩、人们重返办公室以及健身房重新开放，2022财年对Peloton来说将是充满挑战的一年。随着管理层继续在研发（第一季度 9,770 万美元）和资本支出（第一季度 8,720 万美元）上投入现金，Peloton 应该很快就会恢复增长模式。我不想粉饰太平，这几个季度的情况很糟糕，其中也有一些令人挠头的时刻，比如自行车降价以及最近的股权提升。但几个糟糕的季度并不意味着 Peloton 是一项糟糕的投资。</blockquote> Building An Ecosystem<blockquote>构建生态系统</blockquote> The bear thesis has always been \"the economy is reopening, people are returning to the gym, people want to socialize, working out at home is boring, Peloton is too expensive, Peloton is overhyped” yada, yada, yada. Consequently, negative news and poor results from the prior quarters make the bears sound smart. Furthermore, the stock price tanked to new 52-week lows. As such, sentiment on the company has been nothing but fear written all over, and therefore, it’s so easy for investors to dismiss Peloton’s bull case during these times.<blockquote>熊市的论点一直是“经济正在重新开放，人们正在回到健身房，人们想要社交，在家锻炼很无聊，Peloton太贵了，Peloton被过度炒作了”。因此，负面消息和前几个季度的糟糕业绩让空头听起来很聪明。此外，股价跌至52周新低。因此，人们对该公司的情绪充满了恐惧，因此，在这个时候，投资者很容易对 Peloton 的牛市理由不屑一顾。</blockquote> In the next few paragraphs, I’d like to remind readers of Peloton’s bull thesis and why its growth story remains intact, despite short-term road bumps.<blockquote>在接下来的几段中，我想提醒读者 Peloton 的牛市论点，以及为什么尽管经历了短期的坎坷，但其增长故事依然完好无损。</blockquote> The Peloton Cult- Despite revenues only increasing 6% YOY, Connected Fitness subscriptions grew 87% YOY to 2.49 million with only 0.82% monthly churn, despite tough comps. I do not focus so much on revenue now since Peloton’s priority is to land as many members as possible, which is the sole reason why management made the price cut on the Peloton Bike - building a larger cult is what Peloton is striving for. In essence, Peloton is delaying gratification so it can reap the benefits of a network effect moat tomorrow by leveraging the strong brand moat it possesses today.<blockquote>Peloton邪教- 尽管收入同比仅增长 6%，但互联健身订阅量同比增长 87%，达到 249 万，尽管竞争激烈，月流失率仅为 0.82%。我现在不太关注收入，因为 Peloton 的首要任务是吸引尽可能多的会员，这也是管理层降低 Peloton 自行车价格的唯一原因--建立一个更大的邪教是 Peloton 的目标。从本质上讲，Peloton 正在推迟满足，以便通过利用其今天拥有的强大品牌护城河，它可以在明天收获网络效应护城河的好处。</blockquote> Operational Expansion- Speaking of network effects, Peloton has yet to establish a strong international market presence. In FY 2021, international revenue only makes up 7% of total revenue. The acquisition of Precor is highly strategic as the legacy manufacturer has a large presence in international markets. Such an acquisition should be beneficial for Peloton to enter into new markets. At the same time, the acquisition of Precor grants Peloton access to Precor's connections with commercial gyms. Management also has desires to expand commercially into hotels, universities, corporate campuses, and apartment buildings. Here's what Peloton President William Lynch said about what it means for Peloton if they expand commercially:<blockquote>业务扩张- 说到网络效应，Peloton 尚未建立强大的国际市场地位。2021财年，国际收入仅占总收入的7%。收购 Precor 具有高度战略意义，因为这家传统制造商在国际市场上拥有大量影响力。这样的收购应该有利于Peloton进入新市场。与此同时，收购 Precor 使 Peloton 能够使用 Precor 与商业健身房的联系。管理层还希望将商业扩展到酒店、大学、企业园区和公寓楼。以下是 Peloton 总裁 William Lynch 对 Peloton 进行商业扩张意味着什么的评价：</blockquote> And then, also, that channel not only is a good business for us as it reemerges, it's also an incredible lead generation channel. Just an example of that is in hospitality, when we have a Peloton bike in a hotel for a year. It sells, on average, seven bikes into the home, and that talks to the quality of the experience that it offers. When a traveler goes into a Westin and gets on their Peloton in the morning and tries it using our trial, we get that lead capture. And we know, given the strength of the experience, they come home, and they buy Peloton. And so, it's not only a business that we think has a lot of, financially, has a lot of upside going forward given the catalog. Not only have they been helpful on the manufacturing side, it's very strategic for our at-home business as a trial channel, certainly in hospitality, but also when you think about universities and other verticals. (Source: Peloton 2022 Q1 Earnings Call) New Product Lines- Here's an impressive statistic, Peloton was able to capture 2.49 million Connected Fitness subscribers with only two types of product: Bike and Tread. Imagine how many more members will join the cult when Peloton introduces new products like rowing machines, elliptical machines, or even punching bags. Just recently, Peloton launched the&nbsp;Peloton Guide, an “AI-enabled device easily connects to televisions, providing Members instant access to a suite of expert Instructors and the well-loved Peloton content library.” Among its features is a Movement Tracker, powered by smart camera technology and machine learning. A small step into the Metaverse perhaps? Nevertheless, management has been pouring money into R&amp;D and I expect management to introduce more innovations in the near future.<blockquote>而且，当它重新出现时，这个渠道不仅对我们来说是一笔好生意，而且还是一个令人难以置信的销售线索生成渠道这方面的一个例子是在酒店业，我们在酒店里放了一辆Peloton自行车一年。它平均向家庭销售七辆自行车，这说明了它提供的体验质量。当一个旅行者走进威斯汀酒店，在早上登上他们的Peloton，并使用我们的试验进行尝试时，我们得到了线索捕获。我们知道，鉴于经验的力量，他们回家后会购买 Peloton。因此，考虑到产品目录，这不仅是一项我们认为在财务上有很大发展前景的业务。它们不仅在制造方面很有帮助，而且对于我们的家庭业务来说也非常具有战略意义试验通道当然是在酒店业，但当你想到大学和其他垂直行业时也是如此。（资料来源：Peloton 2022 年第一季度收益看涨期权）新产品线- 这是一个令人印象深刻的统计数据，Peloton 仅用两种类型的产品就吸引了 249 万联网健身用户：自行车和踏板。想象一下，当Peloton推出划船机、椭圆机甚至沙袋等新产品时，会有多少成员加入这个邪教。就在最近，Peloton 推出了 Peloton Guide，这是一款 “人工智能设备，可轻松连接到电视，让会员即时访问一套专家讲师和深受喜爱的 Peloton 内容库”。它的功能之一是运动追踪器，由智能摄像头技术和机器学习驱动。也许是进入元宇宙的一小步？尽管如此，管理层一直在向研发投入资金，我预计管理层将在不久的将来引入更多创新。</blockquote> Fitness Streaming Giant- Peloton offers unmatched workout content led by 45+ world-class instructors across 10+ different workout categories, enhanced with interactive music from world-renowned artists. The Peloton app boasts a 4.9 rating with 580,000+, more than twice its biggest competitor, Beachbody (BODY). Peloton is without any doubt, the largest premium fitness streaming platform in the world. Its stellar reputation in content creation opens the doors for collaboration with other streaming giants such as Spotify (SPOT), Apple (AAPL), Roku (ROKU), and Netflix (NFLX). With its valuation cut to about $16 billion at the time of this writing, Peloton may also be an attractive acquisition target for Apple, a complement to Apple Fitness+.<blockquote>健身流媒体巨头- Peloton 提供无与伦比的锻炼内容，由 45 多名世界级教练带领，涵盖 10 多种不同的锻炼类别，并辅以世界知名艺术家的互动音乐。Peloton应用程序拥有5.8万+的4.9评分，是其最大竞争对手Beachbody（身体）的两倍多。毫无疑问，Peloton是世界上最大的优质健身流媒体平台。其在内容创作方面的卓越声誉为与Spotify（SPOT）、苹果（AAPL）、Roku（Roku）和Netflix（NFLX）等其他流媒体巨头的合作打开了大门。截至撰写本文时，Peloton 的估值已降至约 160 亿美元，因此对于苹果来说，Peloton 也可能是一个有吸引力的收购目标，是苹果 Fitness+ 的补充。</blockquote> In addition, Peloton’s powerful streaming platform may also be an excellent medium for sports federations to conduct global online events. For example, holding a marathon race using the Tread or an online bicycle race with the Peloton Bikes. This allows people from all over the world to compete with one another in the comfort of their homes.<blockquote>此外，Peloton 强大的流媒体平台也可能成为体育联合会举办全球在线赛事的绝佳媒介。例如，使用踏板举办马拉松比赛或使用Peloton自行车举办在线自行车比赛。这使得来自世界各地的人们可以在舒适的家中相互竞争。</blockquote> Selling Ads- Here's another common bear thesis: “Peloton is just an iPad attached to a Bike.” Well, Peloton can one day use those screens to run ads, as a way to diversify its revenue stream. For example, Ads can hover over the screen or be spoken out by the instructors during mid-workout breaks. Another way would be for Peloton to switch to a freemium model where one subscription price includes ads and limited content access, while the other is ad-free with unlimited access.<blockquote>销售广告- 这是熊的另一个常见论点： “Peloton 只是一台连接在自行车上的 iPad”。嗯，Peloton 有一天可以使用这些屏幕来投放广告，作为实现收入来源多元化的一种方式。例如，广告可以悬停在屏幕上，或者由教练在锻炼中途休息时说出。另一种方式是Peloton转向免费增值模式，其中一种订阅价格包括广告和有限的内容访问，而另一种是无广告的，可以无限访问。</blockquote> These are just some of the things Peloton can do to continue to grow as a company so claiming that Peloton is dead in the water is clearly false. Again, the past few quarters have been terrible. But Peloton’s first-mover advantage and market leadership give the company the opportunity to grow further as outlined above. Its cult-like following, expanding network of members, innovative products, industry-leading content, and new revenue opportunity are signs of an emerging Peloton ecosystem.<blockquote>这些只是 Peloton 作为一家公司可以继续发展的一些事情，因此声称 Peloton 已经死在水中显然是错误的。再说一次，过去几个季度的情况很糟糕。但 Peloton 的先发优势和市场领导地位为公司提供了进一步发展的机会，如上所述。其狂热的追随者、不断扩大的会员网络、创新的产品、行业领先的内容和新的收入机会是新兴Peloton生态系统的标志。</blockquote> Investors shouldn't be so quick to dismiss Peloton's growth potential.<blockquote>投资者不应该这么快就忽视 Peloton 的增长潜力。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> In my first Peloton&nbsp;article, I mentioned:<blockquote>在我的第一篇 Peloton 文章中，我提到：</blockquote> While growth may slow down due to product recalls, negative publicity, and the reopening of the economy, Peloton still has a long growth runway ahead. However, despite its bullish growth thesis, valuations and technicals seemed bearish at the moment. Sometimes, it pays to wait a little longer. (Source: Author’s article: Peloton: Growth Story Still Intact, But Valuations And Technicals Do Not Look Good) Wait a little longer I did.<blockquote>虽然由于产品召回、负面宣传和经济重新开放，增长可能会放缓，但 Peloton 仍有很长的增长道路。然而，尽管其看涨增长论点，但估值和技术面目前似乎看跌。有时候，再等一会儿是值得的。(资料来源：作者文章：Peloton： 增长故事依然完好无损，但估值和技术面看起来不太好）再等一会儿。</blockquote> I argued that the stock was forming a head and shoulder pattern and that it will likely trend downwards to the $70 or $50 level. As we all know, the stock tanked following Q1 earnings, primarily due to the huge guidance cut. It gapped below the $70 support and is now hovering in the $50 support level where I initiated a starter position. The next major support level is $35.<blockquote>我认为该股正在形成头肩形态，并且可能会下跌至 70 美元或 50 美元的水平。众所周知，该股在第一季度盈利后暴跌，主要是由于大幅下调指引。它跌破了70美元的支撑位，现在徘徊在我开始建仓的50美元支撑位。下一个主要支撑位是35美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbc1cf30c6af00792eb4d10481a143e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TradingView<blockquote>来源：TradingView</blockquote> At current prices, Peloton is trading at only 4.0x EV / LTM Revenue, close to its historical low of 3.7x. The problem with valuing Peloton is that it is currently unprofitable so we can only use revenue multiples to gauge its relative valuation - operating results are too volatile to make accurate assumptions in the DCF model. In my opinion, a 4.0x revenue multiple provides ample margin of safety for a growth stock (or turnaround stock for that matter).<blockquote>按当前价格计算，Peloton 的 EV / LTM 收入仅为 4.0 倍，接近 3.7 倍的历史低点。对 Peloton 进行估值的问题是，它目前没有盈利，因此我们只能使用收入倍数来衡量其相对估值 - 经营业绩太不稳定，无法在 DCF 模型中做出准确的假设。在我看来，4.0 倍的收入倍数为成长型股票（或周转型股票）提供了充足的安全边际。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0de4fdd41764434a17e4e187765c7eb5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"271\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>资料来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> It also helps to know that TCV bought more shares of PTON at $46 after initiating a position back in May 2021 at around $100. TCV is led by Jay Hoag, who is on the board of directors of Peloton.<blockquote>值得注意的是，TCV 在 2021 年 5 月以 100 美元左右的价格建仓后，以 46 美元的价格购买了更多 PTON 股票。TCV由Peloton董事会成员Jay Hoag领导。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1872e9e5e17fd189e431a2d6a25660cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"562\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Insider Monkey<blockquote>来源：Insider Monkey</blockquote> While Peloton looks cheap on a historical basis, Peloton is still a high-risk bet due to headwinds from the reopening of the economy, the return to gyms, supply chain constraints, unprofitability, and unsustainable cash burn rates.<blockquote>虽然从历史角度来看，Peloton 看起来很便宜，但由于经济重新开放、健身房回归、供应链限制、无利可图和不可持续的现金消耗率等不利因素，Peloton 仍然是一个高风险赌注。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> Depending on which camp you belong to, Peloton may or may not be the most revolutionary company. But we can all agree that Peloton has a strong brand, best-in-class hardware, and industry-leading fitness content. However, a few bad quarters seemed to have spooked investors, especially regarding the company’s unprofitability and the recent guidance cut. The reopening of the economy is also threatening Peloton’s growth prospects.<blockquote>根据你属于哪个阵营，Peloton可能是也可能不是最具革命性的公司。但我们都同意Peloton拥有强大的品牌、一流的硬件和行业领先的健身内容。然而，几个糟糕的季度似乎让投资者感到害怕，尤其是公司的无利可图和最近的指引下调。经济的重新开放也威胁着 Peloton 的增长前景。</blockquote> While discouraging, a few bad quarters don’t make Peloton a bad investment. To me, Peloton’s network is growing day by day and it has the potential to scale further as new products, content, and regions are added. In addition, the recent equity raise also provided Peloton with ample liquidity to cover near-term cash burn. Couple that with cost savings initiatives, Peloton should be able to return to cash-flow-positive by next year. Finally, I believe the selloff is overdone. The stock could go even lower from here but current valuations already provide a decent margin of safety for investors. As such, I am Long PTON.<blockquote>虽然令人沮丧，但一些糟糕的季度并不意味着 Peloton 是一项糟糕的投资。在我看来，Peloton 的网络正在日益壮大，随着新产品、内容和地区的加入，它有可能进一步扩大规模。此外，最近的股权融资也为Peloton提供了充足的流动性，以应对近期的现金消耗。再加上成本节约举措，Peloton 应该能够在明年恢复现金流正。最后，我认为抛售过度了。该股可能会进一步走低，但目前的估值已经为投资者提供了不错的安全边际。因此，我是龙普顿。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Peloton: A Few Bad Quarters Don't Make It A Bad Investment<blockquote>Peloton：几个糟糕的季度并不意味着它是一项糟糕的投资</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPeloton: A Few Bad Quarters Don't Make It A Bad Investment<blockquote>Peloton：几个糟糕的季度并不意味着它是一项糟糕的投资</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-11-22 14:03\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Poor Q1 results and a massive guidance cut shocked investors that sent the stock down 30+%.</li> <li>While bears are celebrating, investors shouldn't be too quick to dismiss Peloton's growth potential.</li> <li>Management is delaying gratification to build an ecosystem for tomorrow.</li> <li>An insider has been buying Peloton during the meltdown. So am I.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406ba77444ee9b1c168d04c9cf5ec1ea\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">kali9/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>第一季度业绩不佳和指引大幅下调令投资者感到震惊，导致该股下跌 30% 以上。</li><li>虽然空头正在庆祝，但投资者不应过快忽视 Peloton 的增长潜力。</li><li>管理层正在推迟满足，为明天建立一个生态系统。</li><li>一位内部人士在崩溃期间一直在购买 Peloton。我也是。</li></ul>kali9/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Peloton (PTON) reported disappointing back-to-back quarters. The most recent one was accompanied by a huge revenue guidance cut that lost many investors' confidence. Moreover, the reopening of the economy seemed to play a big role in Peloton's slowdown. Despite all these factors, Peloton still has a long growth runway ahead and the company should rise from the ashes in the following few quarters. Although quite risky, the recent valuation drop makes Peloton a compelling buy.<blockquote>Peloton (PTON) 报告了令人失望的背靠背季度。最近一次伴随着收入指引的大幅下调，失去了许多投资者的信心。此外，经济的重新开放似乎在 Peloton 的放缓中发挥了重要作用。尽管存在所有这些因素，Peloton 仍有很长的增长道路，该公司应该会在接下来的几个季度内浴火重生。尽管风险很大，但最近的估值下降使 Peloton 成为一个引人注目的买入机会。</blockquote> Two Bad Quarters<blockquote>两个糟糕的季度</blockquote> Let’s cut to the chase. Peloton’s most recent quarter performance was abysmal. Many thought that Q4 2021 results were bad enough and that it wouldn’t get worse but guess what? It did get worse, significantly.<blockquote>让我们切入正题。Peloton 最近一个季度的表现糟糕透顶。许多人认为 2021 年第四季度的业绩已经足够糟糕了，不会变得更糟，但你猜怎么着？情况确实变得更糟了，非常严重。</blockquote> Peloton ended Q1 with revenue of $805 million, just 6% higher from the year-ago quarter and down 14% sequentially, but in line with management’s guidance of $800 million. The slowdown in growth was primarily due to weakness in the Connected Fitness segment, posting a 17% YOY decline to $501 million as a result of fewer Bike deliveries, Bike price cut, and Tread recall. This figure also includes about $60 million of contribution from Precor. So excluding Precor, Connected Fitness revenue would have dropped by about 27%, YOY.<blockquote>Peloton 第一季度营收为 8.05 亿美元，比去年同期仅增长 6%，环比下降 14%，但符合管理层 8 亿美元的指导。增长放缓主要是由于互联健身领域的疲软，由于自行车交付减少、自行车降价和胎面召回，同比下降 17% 至 5.01 亿美元。这一数字还包括Precor约6000万美元的捐款。因此，如果不包括 Precor，互联健身收入将同比下降约 27%。</blockquote> On the bright side, subscription revenue growth remained strong, growing 94% YOY to $304 million, driven by an 87% increase in Connected Fitness subscriptions to 2.49 million and a 74% increase in digital subscriptions to 887,000, amassing 6.2 million total members globally. However, monthly churn rate ticked up slightly to 0.82% from the prior quarter’s 0.73%, and both total platform workouts and Average Monthly Workouts per Subscription continued their downtrend, signaling a gradual shift from in-home fitness to gyms.<blockquote>从好的一面来看，订阅收入增长依然强劲，同比增长 94% 至 3.04 亿美元，这得益于联网健身订阅增长 87% 至 249 万，数字订阅增长 74% 至 88.7 万，全球会员总数达到 620 万。不过，月流失率从上一季度的 0.73% 略有上升至 0.82%，平台总锻炼次数和每次订阅的平均月锻炼次数均继续呈下降趋势，标志着从家庭健身逐渐转向健身房。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/298f1830578fdbceb2f7e0732b94b1d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Peloton Q1 2022 Shareholder Letter<blockquote>资料来源：Peloton 2022 年第一季度股东信</blockquote> Seeing Peloton maintain high subscription revenue growth is encouraging as it means that Peloton can rely on stable cash flow while its Connected Fitness segment continues to experience volatility in terms of operating results. Subscription revenue is also the high-margin segment of the Peloton business model. Overall gross margin was 32.6% for Q1 2022. Again, in line with management’s expectations. Product gross margin was 12.0%, as expected given the Bike price reduction, supply chain constraints, and impact from the Tread recall. Subscription gross margin was 66.7%, up 820 basis points.<blockquote>看到 Peloton 保持高订阅收入增长令人鼓舞，因为这意味着 Peloton 可以依靠稳定的现金流，而其互联健身部门的经营业绩继续出现波动。订阅收入也是 Peloton 商业模式的高利润率部分。2022 年第一季度的整体毛利率为 32.6%。同样，符合管理层的期望。考虑到自行车价格下降、供应链限制以及胎面召回的影响，产品毛利率为 12.0%，符合预期。认购毛利率为66.7%，上升820个基点。</blockquote> Q1 Adjusted EBITDA was $(233.7) million. This was the result of revenue growing at only 6% while operating expenses continued to grow at a triple-digit rate. However, it is important to note that the reported Adjusted EBITDA was way less than the $(285) million guided in Q4 2021. Nonetheless, it’s still a considerable cash burn given the size of the company.<blockquote>第一季度调整后 EBITDA 为 (2.337) 亿美元。这是由于收入仅增长 6%，而运营费用继续以三位数的速度增长。然而，值得注意的是，报告的调整后EBITDA远低于2021年第四季度指导的（2.85）亿美元。尽管如此，考虑到公司的规模，这仍然是一笔不小的现金消耗。</blockquote> Peloton ended Q1 with $924 million in cash and cash equivalents, about $600+ million lower than the prior quarter. You can see why Peloton’s balance sheet health scared investors despite its CFO reassuring any liquidity concerns during the&nbsp;earnings call:<blockquote>Peloton 第一季度末拥有 9.24 亿美元现金和现金等价物，比上一季度减少约 6 亿多美元。您可以明白为什么 Peloton 的资产负债表健康状况让投资者感到害怕，尽管其首席财务官在财报看涨期权上对流动性问题表示担忧：</blockquote> I think just cutting to the chase, we don't see the need for any additional capital raise based on our current outlook.As we mentioned, we're taking significant steps to adjust our expenses across COGS and opex with this revised revenue guidance, then we have a lot of levers to pull. In addition, what we're also going to do is reevaluate the cadence of some of the capital investments that we're making, inclusive of POP. And while we know that POP is a decades-long, right-term strategic move for us, there's definitely ways for us to find ways to make that a more economical spend over the next couple of years. (Source: Peloton 2022 Q1 Earnings Call Transcript) (“POP” refers to&nbsp;Peloton Output Park, Peloton’s goal of building its first US factory.)<blockquote>我想开门见山，根据我们目前的前景，我们认为没有必要进行任何额外的融资。正如我们提到的，我们正在采取重大措施，通过修订后的收入指导来调整我们在 COGS 和 opex 方面的费用，然后我们有很多杠杆可以利用。此外，我们还将重新评估我们正在进行的一些资本投资的节奏，包括 POP。虽然我们知道 POP 对我们来说是一项长达数十年的正确战略举措，但我们肯定有办法在未来几年内找到更经济的支出。(资料来源：Peloton 2022 年第一季度财报看涨期权成绩单）（“POP ”指 Peloton 产出园区，Peloton 在美国建立第一家工厂的目标。）</blockquote> A few weeks later, Peloton announced an&nbsp;equity offering&nbsp;of 23,913,043 shares of common stock at $46 per share, totaling $1.07 billion. This dilutes shareholders and makes management looks like liars.<blockquote>几周后，Peloton 宣布以每股 46 美元的价格发行 23,913,043 股普通股，总计 10.7 亿美元。这稀释了股东，让管理层看起来像骗子。</blockquote> It gets worse from here. Management revised down its prior full-year guidance. The introduction of ranges in its guidance also means that there’s a lack of confidence on management’s part, as well as a great deal of uncertainty for Peloton as the economy reopens.<blockquote>从这里开始情况会变得更糟。管理层下调了之前的全年指引。在指导方针中引入范围也意味着管理层缺乏信心，随着经济重新开放，Peloton 也面临着很大的不确定性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bc51c3fe742542b143eedeb5b53a160\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"165\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Peloton Q4 2021 Shareholder Letter, Peloton Q1 2022 Shareholder Letter, and Author’s Figure<blockquote>资料来源：Peloton 2021 年第四季度股东信、Peloton 2022 年第一季度股东信和作者数据</blockquote> Despite all the doom and gloom, I believe the worst is behind Peloton - the Tread has been successfully recalled and the updated guidance has been issued. FY 2022 will be a challenging year for Peloton due to tough YOY comps, people returning to the office, and gyms reopening. Peloton should return to growth mode soon as management continued to pile cash on R&amp;D ($97.7 million in Q1) and CapEx ($87.2 million in Q1). I’m not going to sugarcoat, it’s been a terrible few quarters, and there were some head-scratching moments like the Bike price cut as well as its recent equity raise. But a few bad quarters don’t make Peloton a bad investment.<blockquote>尽管有厄运和黑暗，我相信最糟糕的情况已经过去了——胎面已经被成功召回，更新的指南也已经发布。由于艰难的同比业绩、人们重返办公室以及健身房重新开放，2022财年对Peloton来说将是充满挑战的一年。随着管理层继续在研发（第一季度 9,770 万美元）和资本支出（第一季度 8,720 万美元）上投入现金，Peloton 应该很快就会恢复增长模式。我不想粉饰太平，这几个季度的情况很糟糕，其中也有一些令人挠头的时刻，比如自行车降价以及最近的股权提升。但几个糟糕的季度并不意味着 Peloton 是一项糟糕的投资。</blockquote> Building An Ecosystem<blockquote>构建生态系统</blockquote> The bear thesis has always been \"the economy is reopening, people are returning to the gym, people want to socialize, working out at home is boring, Peloton is too expensive, Peloton is overhyped” yada, yada, yada. Consequently, negative news and poor results from the prior quarters make the bears sound smart. Furthermore, the stock price tanked to new 52-week lows. As such, sentiment on the company has been nothing but fear written all over, and therefore, it’s so easy for investors to dismiss Peloton’s bull case during these times.<blockquote>熊市的论点一直是“经济正在重新开放，人们正在回到健身房，人们想要社交，在家锻炼很无聊，Peloton太贵了，Peloton被过度炒作了”。因此，负面消息和前几个季度的糟糕业绩让空头听起来很聪明。此外，股价跌至52周新低。因此，人们对该公司的情绪充满了恐惧，因此，在这个时候，投资者很容易对 Peloton 的牛市理由不屑一顾。</blockquote> In the next few paragraphs, I’d like to remind readers of Peloton’s bull thesis and why its growth story remains intact, despite short-term road bumps.<blockquote>在接下来的几段中，我想提醒读者 Peloton 的牛市论点，以及为什么尽管经历了短期的坎坷，但其增长故事依然完好无损。</blockquote> The Peloton Cult- Despite revenues only increasing 6% YOY, Connected Fitness subscriptions grew 87% YOY to 2.49 million with only 0.82% monthly churn, despite tough comps. I do not focus so much on revenue now since Peloton’s priority is to land as many members as possible, which is the sole reason why management made the price cut on the Peloton Bike - building a larger cult is what Peloton is striving for. In essence, Peloton is delaying gratification so it can reap the benefits of a network effect moat tomorrow by leveraging the strong brand moat it possesses today.<blockquote>Peloton邪教- 尽管收入同比仅增长 6%，但互联健身订阅量同比增长 87%，达到 249 万，尽管竞争激烈，月流失率仅为 0.82%。我现在不太关注收入，因为 Peloton 的首要任务是吸引尽可能多的会员，这也是管理层降低 Peloton 自行车价格的唯一原因--建立一个更大的邪教是 Peloton 的目标。从本质上讲，Peloton 正在推迟满足，以便通过利用其今天拥有的强大品牌护城河，它可以在明天收获网络效应护城河的好处。</blockquote> Operational Expansion- Speaking of network effects, Peloton has yet to establish a strong international market presence. In FY 2021, international revenue only makes up 7% of total revenue. The acquisition of Precor is highly strategic as the legacy manufacturer has a large presence in international markets. Such an acquisition should be beneficial for Peloton to enter into new markets. At the same time, the acquisition of Precor grants Peloton access to Precor's connections with commercial gyms. Management also has desires to expand commercially into hotels, universities, corporate campuses, and apartment buildings. Here's what Peloton President William Lynch said about what it means for Peloton if they expand commercially:<blockquote>业务扩张- 说到网络效应，Peloton 尚未建立强大的国际市场地位。2021财年，国际收入仅占总收入的7%。收购 Precor 具有高度战略意义，因为这家传统制造商在国际市场上拥有大量影响力。这样的收购应该有利于Peloton进入新市场。与此同时，收购 Precor 使 Peloton 能够使用 Precor 与商业健身房的联系。管理层还希望将商业扩展到酒店、大学、企业园区和公寓楼。以下是 Peloton 总裁 William Lynch 对 Peloton 进行商业扩张意味着什么的评价：</blockquote> And then, also, that channel not only is a good business for us as it reemerges, it's also an incredible lead generation channel. Just an example of that is in hospitality, when we have a Peloton bike in a hotel for a year. It sells, on average, seven bikes into the home, and that talks to the quality of the experience that it offers. When a traveler goes into a Westin and gets on their Peloton in the morning and tries it using our trial, we get that lead capture. And we know, given the strength of the experience, they come home, and they buy Peloton. And so, it's not only a business that we think has a lot of, financially, has a lot of upside going forward given the catalog. Not only have they been helpful on the manufacturing side, it's very strategic for our at-home business as a trial channel, certainly in hospitality, but also when you think about universities and other verticals. (Source: Peloton 2022 Q1 Earnings Call) New Product Lines- Here's an impressive statistic, Peloton was able to capture 2.49 million Connected Fitness subscribers with only two types of product: Bike and Tread. Imagine how many more members will join the cult when Peloton introduces new products like rowing machines, elliptical machines, or even punching bags. Just recently, Peloton launched the&nbsp;Peloton Guide, an “AI-enabled device easily connects to televisions, providing Members instant access to a suite of expert Instructors and the well-loved Peloton content library.” Among its features is a Movement Tracker, powered by smart camera technology and machine learning. A small step into the Metaverse perhaps? Nevertheless, management has been pouring money into R&amp;D and I expect management to introduce more innovations in the near future.<blockquote>而且，当它重新出现时，这个渠道不仅对我们来说是一笔好生意，而且还是一个令人难以置信的销售线索生成渠道这方面的一个例子是在酒店业，我们在酒店里放了一辆Peloton自行车一年。它平均向家庭销售七辆自行车，这说明了它提供的体验质量。当一个旅行者走进威斯汀酒店，在早上登上他们的Peloton，并使用我们的试验进行尝试时，我们得到了线索捕获。我们知道，鉴于经验的力量，他们回家后会购买 Peloton。因此，考虑到产品目录，这不仅是一项我们认为在财务上有很大发展前景的业务。它们不仅在制造方面很有帮助，而且对于我们的家庭业务来说也非常具有战略意义试验通道当然是在酒店业，但当你想到大学和其他垂直行业时也是如此。（资料来源：Peloton 2022 年第一季度收益看涨期权）新产品线- 这是一个令人印象深刻的统计数据，Peloton 仅用两种类型的产品就吸引了 249 万联网健身用户：自行车和踏板。想象一下，当Peloton推出划船机、椭圆机甚至沙袋等新产品时，会有多少成员加入这个邪教。就在最近，Peloton 推出了 Peloton Guide，这是一款 “人工智能设备，可轻松连接到电视，让会员即时访问一套专家讲师和深受喜爱的 Peloton 内容库”。它的功能之一是运动追踪器，由智能摄像头技术和机器学习驱动。也许是进入元宇宙的一小步？尽管如此，管理层一直在向研发投入资金，我预计管理层将在不久的将来引入更多创新。</blockquote> Fitness Streaming Giant- Peloton offers unmatched workout content led by 45+ world-class instructors across 10+ different workout categories, enhanced with interactive music from world-renowned artists. The Peloton app boasts a 4.9 rating with 580,000+, more than twice its biggest competitor, Beachbody (BODY). Peloton is without any doubt, the largest premium fitness streaming platform in the world. Its stellar reputation in content creation opens the doors for collaboration with other streaming giants such as Spotify (SPOT), Apple (AAPL), Roku (ROKU), and Netflix (NFLX). With its valuation cut to about $16 billion at the time of this writing, Peloton may also be an attractive acquisition target for Apple, a complement to Apple Fitness+.<blockquote>健身流媒体巨头- Peloton 提供无与伦比的锻炼内容，由 45 多名世界级教练带领，涵盖 10 多种不同的锻炼类别，并辅以世界知名艺术家的互动音乐。Peloton应用程序拥有5.8万+的4.9评分，是其最大竞争对手Beachbody（身体）的两倍多。毫无疑问，Peloton是世界上最大的优质健身流媒体平台。其在内容创作方面的卓越声誉为与Spotify（SPOT）、苹果（AAPL）、Roku（Roku）和Netflix（NFLX）等其他流媒体巨头的合作打开了大门。截至撰写本文时，Peloton 的估值已降至约 160 亿美元，因此对于苹果来说，Peloton 也可能是一个有吸引力的收购目标，是苹果 Fitness+ 的补充。</blockquote> In addition, Peloton’s powerful streaming platform may also be an excellent medium for sports federations to conduct global online events. For example, holding a marathon race using the Tread or an online bicycle race with the Peloton Bikes. This allows people from all over the world to compete with one another in the comfort of their homes.<blockquote>此外，Peloton 强大的流媒体平台也可能成为体育联合会举办全球在线赛事的绝佳媒介。例如，使用踏板举办马拉松比赛或使用Peloton自行车举办在线自行车比赛。这使得来自世界各地的人们可以在舒适的家中相互竞争。</blockquote> Selling Ads- Here's another common bear thesis: “Peloton is just an iPad attached to a Bike.” Well, Peloton can one day use those screens to run ads, as a way to diversify its revenue stream. For example, Ads can hover over the screen or be spoken out by the instructors during mid-workout breaks. Another way would be for Peloton to switch to a freemium model where one subscription price includes ads and limited content access, while the other is ad-free with unlimited access.<blockquote>销售广告- 这是熊的另一个常见论点： “Peloton 只是一台连接在自行车上的 iPad”。嗯，Peloton 有一天可以使用这些屏幕来投放广告，作为实现收入来源多元化的一种方式。例如，广告可以悬停在屏幕上，或者由教练在锻炼中途休息时说出。另一种方式是Peloton转向免费增值模式，其中一种订阅价格包括广告和有限的内容访问，而另一种是无广告的，可以无限访问。</blockquote> These are just some of the things Peloton can do to continue to grow as a company so claiming that Peloton is dead in the water is clearly false. Again, the past few quarters have been terrible. But Peloton’s first-mover advantage and market leadership give the company the opportunity to grow further as outlined above. Its cult-like following, expanding network of members, innovative products, industry-leading content, and new revenue opportunity are signs of an emerging Peloton ecosystem.<blockquote>这些只是 Peloton 作为一家公司可以继续发展的一些事情，因此声称 Peloton 已经死在水中显然是错误的。再说一次，过去几个季度的情况很糟糕。但 Peloton 的先发优势和市场领导地位为公司提供了进一步发展的机会，如上所述。其狂热的追随者、不断扩大的会员网络、创新的产品、行业领先的内容和新的收入机会是新兴Peloton生态系统的标志。</blockquote> Investors shouldn't be so quick to dismiss Peloton's growth potential.<blockquote>投资者不应该这么快就忽视 Peloton 的增长潜力。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> In my first Peloton&nbsp;article, I mentioned:<blockquote>在我的第一篇 Peloton 文章中，我提到：</blockquote> While growth may slow down due to product recalls, negative publicity, and the reopening of the economy, Peloton still has a long growth runway ahead. However, despite its bullish growth thesis, valuations and technicals seemed bearish at the moment. Sometimes, it pays to wait a little longer. (Source: Author’s article: Peloton: Growth Story Still Intact, But Valuations And Technicals Do Not Look Good) Wait a little longer I did.<blockquote>虽然由于产品召回、负面宣传和经济重新开放，增长可能会放缓，但 Peloton 仍有很长的增长道路。然而，尽管其看涨增长论点，但估值和技术面目前似乎看跌。有时候，再等一会儿是值得的。(资料来源：作者文章：Peloton： 增长故事依然完好无损，但估值和技术面看起来不太好）再等一会儿。</blockquote> I argued that the stock was forming a head and shoulder pattern and that it will likely trend downwards to the $70 or $50 level. As we all know, the stock tanked following Q1 earnings, primarily due to the huge guidance cut. It gapped below the $70 support and is now hovering in the $50 support level where I initiated a starter position. The next major support level is $35.<blockquote>我认为该股正在形成头肩形态，并且可能会下跌至 70 美元或 50 美元的水平。众所周知，该股在第一季度盈利后暴跌，主要是由于大幅下调指引。它跌破了70美元的支撑位，现在徘徊在我开始建仓的50美元支撑位。下一个主要支撑位是35美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbc1cf30c6af00792eb4d10481a143e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TradingView<blockquote>来源：TradingView</blockquote> At current prices, Peloton is trading at only 4.0x EV / LTM Revenue, close to its historical low of 3.7x. The problem with valuing Peloton is that it is currently unprofitable so we can only use revenue multiples to gauge its relative valuation - operating results are too volatile to make accurate assumptions in the DCF model. In my opinion, a 4.0x revenue multiple provides ample margin of safety for a growth stock (or turnaround stock for that matter).<blockquote>按当前价格计算，Peloton 的 EV / LTM 收入仅为 4.0 倍，接近 3.7 倍的历史低点。对 Peloton 进行估值的问题是，它目前没有盈利，因此我们只能使用收入倍数来衡量其相对估值 - 经营业绩太不稳定，无法在 DCF 模型中做出准确的假设。在我看来，4.0 倍的收入倍数为成长型股票（或周转型股票）提供了充足的安全边际。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0de4fdd41764434a17e4e187765c7eb5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"271\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>资料来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> It also helps to know that TCV bought more shares of PTON at $46 after initiating a position back in May 2021 at around $100. TCV is led by Jay Hoag, who is on the board of directors of Peloton.<blockquote>值得注意的是，TCV 在 2021 年 5 月以 100 美元左右的价格建仓后，以 46 美元的价格购买了更多 PTON 股票。TCV由Peloton董事会成员Jay Hoag领导。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1872e9e5e17fd189e431a2d6a25660cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"562\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Insider Monkey<blockquote>来源：Insider Monkey</blockquote> While Peloton looks cheap on a historical basis, Peloton is still a high-risk bet due to headwinds from the reopening of the economy, the return to gyms, supply chain constraints, unprofitability, and unsustainable cash burn rates.<blockquote>虽然从历史角度来看，Peloton 看起来很便宜，但由于经济重新开放、健身房回归、供应链限制、无利可图和不可持续的现金消耗率等不利因素，Peloton 仍然是一个高风险赌注。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> Depending on which camp you belong to, Peloton may or may not be the most revolutionary company. But we can all agree that Peloton has a strong brand, best-in-class hardware, and industry-leading fitness content. However, a few bad quarters seemed to have spooked investors, especially regarding the company’s unprofitability and the recent guidance cut. The reopening of the economy is also threatening Peloton’s growth prospects.<blockquote>根据你属于哪个阵营，Peloton可能是也可能不是最具革命性的公司。但我们都同意Peloton拥有强大的品牌、一流的硬件和行业领先的健身内容。然而，几个糟糕的季度似乎让投资者感到害怕，尤其是公司的无利可图和最近的指引下调。经济的重新开放也威胁着 Peloton 的增长前景。</blockquote> While discouraging, a few bad quarters don’t make Peloton a bad investment. To me, Peloton’s network is growing day by day and it has the potential to scale further as new products, content, and regions are added. In addition, the recent equity raise also provided Peloton with ample liquidity to cover near-term cash burn. Couple that with cost savings initiatives, Peloton should be able to return to cash-flow-positive by next year. Finally, I believe the selloff is overdone. The stock could go even lower from here but current valuations already provide a decent margin of safety for investors. As such, I am Long PTON.<blockquote>虽然令人沮丧，但一些糟糕的季度并不意味着 Peloton 是一项糟糕的投资。在我看来，Peloton 的网络正在日益壮大，随着新产品、内容和地区的加入，它有可能进一步扩大规模。此外，最近的股权融资也为Peloton提供了充足的流动性，以应对近期的现金消耗。再加上成本节约举措，Peloton 应该能够在明年恢复现金流正。最后，我认为抛售过度了。该股可能会进一步走低，但目前的估值已经为投资者提供了不错的安全边际。因此，我是龙普顿。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471095-peloton-pton-stock-buy-not-bad-investment\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471095-peloton-pton-stock-buy-not-bad-investment","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162603487","content_text":"Summary\n\nPoor Q1 results and a massive guidance cut shocked investors that sent the stock down 30+%.\nWhile bears are celebrating, investors shouldn't be too quick to dismiss Peloton's growth potential.\nManagement is delaying gratification to build an ecosystem for tomorrow.\nAn insider has been buying Peloton during the meltdown. So am I.\n\nkali9/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nPeloton (PTON) reported disappointing back-to-back quarters. The most recent one was accompanied by a huge revenue guidance cut that lost many investors' confidence. Moreover, the reopening of the economy seemed to play a big role in Peloton's slowdown. Despite all these factors, Peloton still has a long growth runway ahead and the company should rise from the ashes in the following few quarters. Although quite risky, the recent valuation drop makes Peloton a compelling buy.\nTwo Bad Quarters\nLet’s cut to the chase. Peloton’s most recent quarter performance was abysmal. Many thought that Q4 2021 results were bad enough and that it wouldn’t get worse but guess what? It did get worse, significantly.\nPeloton ended Q1 with revenue of $805 million, just 6% higher from the year-ago quarter and down 14% sequentially, but in line with management’s guidance of $800 million. The slowdown in growth was primarily due to weakness in the Connected Fitness segment, posting a 17% YOY decline to $501 million as a result of fewer Bike deliveries, Bike price cut, and Tread recall. This figure also includes about $60 million of contribution from Precor. So excluding Precor, Connected Fitness revenue would have dropped by about 27%, YOY.\nOn the bright side, subscription revenue growth remained strong, growing 94% YOY to $304 million, driven by an 87% increase in Connected Fitness subscriptions to 2.49 million and a 74% increase in digital subscriptions to 887,000, amassing 6.2 million total members globally. However, monthly churn rate ticked up slightly to 0.82% from the prior quarter’s 0.73%, and both total platform workouts and Average Monthly Workouts per Subscription continued their downtrend, signaling a gradual shift from in-home fitness to gyms.\nSource: Peloton Q1 2022 Shareholder Letter\nSeeing Peloton maintain high subscription revenue growth is encouraging as it means that Peloton can rely on stable cash flow while its Connected Fitness segment continues to experience volatility in terms of operating results. Subscription revenue is also the high-margin segment of the Peloton business model. Overall gross margin was 32.6% for Q1 2022. Again, in line with management’s expectations. Product gross margin was 12.0%, as expected given the Bike price reduction, supply chain constraints, and impact from the Tread recall. Subscription gross margin was 66.7%, up 820 basis points.\nQ1 Adjusted EBITDA was $(233.7) million. This was the result of revenue growing at only 6% while operating expenses continued to grow at a triple-digit rate. However, it is important to note that the reported Adjusted EBITDA was way less than the $(285) million guided in Q4 2021. Nonetheless, it’s still a considerable cash burn given the size of the company.\nPeloton ended Q1 with $924 million in cash and cash equivalents, about $600+ million lower than the prior quarter. You can see why Peloton’s balance sheet health scared investors despite its CFO reassuring any liquidity concerns during the earnings call:\n\n I think just cutting to the chase,\n we don't see the need for any additional capital raise based on our current outlook.As we mentioned, we're taking significant steps to adjust our expenses across COGS and opex with this revised revenue guidance, then we have a lot of levers to pull. In addition, what we're also going to do is reevaluate the cadence of some of the capital investments that we're making, inclusive of POP. And while we know that POP is a decades-long, right-term strategic move for us, there's definitely ways for us to find ways to make that a more economical spend over the next couple of years.\n\n\n (Source: Peloton 2022 Q1 Earnings Call Transcript)\n\n(“POP” refers to Peloton Output Park, Peloton’s goal of building its first US factory.)\nA few weeks later, Peloton announced an equity offering of 23,913,043 shares of common stock at $46 per share, totaling $1.07 billion. This dilutes shareholders and makes management looks like liars.\nIt gets worse from here. Management revised down its prior full-year guidance. The introduction of ranges in its guidance also means that there’s a lack of confidence on management’s part, as well as a great deal of uncertainty for Peloton as the economy reopens.\nSource: Peloton Q4 2021 Shareholder Letter, Peloton Q1 2022 Shareholder Letter, and Author’s Figure\nDespite all the doom and gloom, I believe the worst is behind Peloton - the Tread has been successfully recalled and the updated guidance has been issued. FY 2022 will be a challenging year for Peloton due to tough YOY comps, people returning to the office, and gyms reopening. Peloton should return to growth mode soon as management continued to pile cash on R&D ($97.7 million in Q1) and CapEx ($87.2 million in Q1). I’m not going to sugarcoat, it’s been a terrible few quarters, and there were some head-scratching moments like the Bike price cut as well as its recent equity raise. But a few bad quarters don’t make Peloton a bad investment.\nBuilding An Ecosystem\nThe bear thesis has always been \"the economy is reopening, people are returning to the gym, people want to socialize, working out at home is boring, Peloton is too expensive, Peloton is overhyped” yada, yada, yada. Consequently, negative news and poor results from the prior quarters make the bears sound smart. Furthermore, the stock price tanked to new 52-week lows. As such, sentiment on the company has been nothing but fear written all over, and therefore, it’s so easy for investors to dismiss Peloton’s bull case during these times.\nIn the next few paragraphs, I’d like to remind readers of Peloton’s bull thesis and why its growth story remains intact, despite short-term road bumps.\nThe Peloton Cult- Despite revenues only increasing 6% YOY, Connected Fitness subscriptions grew 87% YOY to 2.49 million with only 0.82% monthly churn, despite tough comps. I do not focus so much on revenue now since Peloton’s priority is to land as many members as possible, which is the sole reason why management made the price cut on the Peloton Bike - building a larger cult is what Peloton is striving for. In essence, Peloton is delaying gratification so it can reap the benefits of a network effect moat tomorrow by leveraging the strong brand moat it possesses today.\nOperational Expansion- Speaking of network effects, Peloton has yet to establish a strong international market presence. In FY 2021, international revenue only makes up 7% of total revenue. The acquisition of Precor is highly strategic as the legacy manufacturer has a large presence in international markets. Such an acquisition should be beneficial for Peloton to enter into new markets. At the same time, the acquisition of Precor grants Peloton access to Precor's connections with commercial gyms. Management also has desires to expand commercially into hotels, universities, corporate campuses, and apartment buildings. Here's what Peloton President William Lynch said about what it means for Peloton if they expand commercially:\n\n And then, also, that channel not only is a good business for us as it reemerges, it's also an\n incredible lead generation channel. Just an example of that is in hospitality, when we have a Peloton bike in a hotel for a year. It sells, on average, seven bikes into the home, and that talks to the quality of the experience that it offers.\n\n\n When a traveler goes into a Westin and gets on their Peloton in the morning and tries it using our trial, we get that lead capture. And we know, given the strength of the experience, they come home, and they buy Peloton. And so, it's not only a business that we think has a lot of, financially, has a lot of upside going forward given the catalog. Not only have they been helpful on the manufacturing side, it's very strategic for our at-home business as a\n trial channel, certainly in hospitality, but also when you think about universities and other verticals.\n\n\n (Source: Peloton 2022 Q1 Earnings Call)\n\nNew Product Lines- Here's an impressive statistic, Peloton was able to capture 2.49 million Connected Fitness subscribers with only two types of product: Bike and Tread. Imagine how many more members will join the cult when Peloton introduces new products like rowing machines, elliptical machines, or even punching bags. Just recently, Peloton launched the Peloton Guide, an “AI-enabled device easily connects to televisions, providing Members instant access to a suite of expert Instructors and the well-loved Peloton content library.” Among its features is a Movement Tracker, powered by smart camera technology and machine learning. A small step into the Metaverse perhaps? Nevertheless, management has been pouring money into R&D and I expect management to introduce more innovations in the near future.\nFitness Streaming Giant- Peloton offers unmatched workout content led by 45+ world-class instructors across 10+ different workout categories, enhanced with interactive music from world-renowned artists. The Peloton app boasts a 4.9 rating with 580,000+, more than twice its biggest competitor, Beachbody (BODY). Peloton is without any doubt, the largest premium fitness streaming platform in the world. Its stellar reputation in content creation opens the doors for collaboration with other streaming giants such as Spotify (SPOT), Apple (AAPL), Roku (ROKU), and Netflix (NFLX). With its valuation cut to about $16 billion at the time of this writing, Peloton may also be an attractive acquisition target for Apple, a complement to Apple Fitness+.\nIn addition, Peloton’s powerful streaming platform may also be an excellent medium for sports federations to conduct global online events. For example, holding a marathon race using the Tread or an online bicycle race with the Peloton Bikes. This allows people from all over the world to compete with one another in the comfort of their homes.\nSelling Ads- Here's another common bear thesis: “Peloton is just an iPad attached to a Bike.” Well, Peloton can one day use those screens to run ads, as a way to diversify its revenue stream. For example, Ads can hover over the screen or be spoken out by the instructors during mid-workout breaks. Another way would be for Peloton to switch to a freemium model where one subscription price includes ads and limited content access, while the other is ad-free with unlimited access.\nThese are just some of the things Peloton can do to continue to grow as a company so claiming that Peloton is dead in the water is clearly false. Again, the past few quarters have been terrible. But Peloton’s first-mover advantage and market leadership give the company the opportunity to grow further as outlined above. Its cult-like following, expanding network of members, innovative products, industry-leading content, and new revenue opportunity are signs of an emerging Peloton ecosystem.\nInvestors shouldn't be so quick to dismiss Peloton's growth potential.\nValuation\nIn my first Peloton article, I mentioned:\n\n While growth may slow down due to product recalls, negative publicity, and the reopening of the economy, Peloton still has a long growth runway ahead. However, despite its bullish growth thesis, valuations and technicals seemed bearish at the moment.\n\n\n Sometimes, it pays to wait a little longer.\n\n\n (Source: Author’s article: Peloton: Growth Story Still Intact, But Valuations And Technicals Do Not Look Good)\n\nWait a little longer I did.\nI argued that the stock was forming a head and shoulder pattern and that it will likely trend downwards to the $70 or $50 level. As we all know, the stock tanked following Q1 earnings, primarily due to the huge guidance cut. It gapped below the $70 support and is now hovering in the $50 support level where I initiated a starter position. The next major support level is $35.\nSource: TradingView\nAt current prices, Peloton is trading at only 4.0x EV / LTM Revenue, close to its historical low of 3.7x. The problem with valuing Peloton is that it is currently unprofitable so we can only use revenue multiples to gauge its relative valuation - operating results are too volatile to make accurate assumptions in the DCF model. In my opinion, a 4.0x revenue multiple provides ample margin of safety for a growth stock (or turnaround stock for that matter).\nSource: TIKR.com\nIt also helps to know that TCV bought more shares of PTON at $46 after initiating a position back in May 2021 at around $100. TCV is led by Jay Hoag, who is on the board of directors of Peloton.\nSource: Insider Monkey\nWhile Peloton looks cheap on a historical basis, Peloton is still a high-risk bet due to headwinds from the reopening of the economy, the return to gyms, supply chain constraints, unprofitability, and unsustainable cash burn rates.\nConclusion\nDepending on which camp you belong to, Peloton may or may not be the most revolutionary company. But we can all agree that Peloton has a strong brand, best-in-class hardware, and industry-leading fitness content. However, a few bad quarters seemed to have spooked investors, especially regarding the company’s unprofitability and the recent guidance cut. The reopening of the economy is also threatening Peloton’s growth prospects.\nWhile discouraging, a few bad quarters don’t make Peloton a bad investment. To me, Peloton’s network is growing day by day and it has the potential to scale further as new products, content, and regions are added. In addition, the recent equity raise also provided Peloton with ample liquidity to cover near-term cash burn. Couple that with cost savings initiatives, Peloton should be able to return to cash-flow-positive by next year. Finally, I believe the selloff is overdone. The stock could go even lower from here but current valuations already provide a decent margin of safety for investors. As such, I am Long PTON.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PTON":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1874,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/872467439"}