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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":872450876,"tweetId":"872450876","gmtCreate":1637564117233,"gmtModify":1637564117337,"author":{"id":3559297454639767,"idStr":"3559297454639767","authorId":3559297454639767,"authorIdStr":"3559297454639767","name":"MJ2317","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e630b11b8aefdaa3f6d659668006e6c9","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":13,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","text":"Ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872450876","repostId":1199324282,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199324282","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637563153,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199324282?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 14:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"We're in a 'Kids Market,' so Don't Give up on Value Strategies<blockquote>我们处于“儿童市场”，所以不要放弃价值策略</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199324282","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Here’s yet another sign that the bull market is getting long in the tooth: “Older” and “wiser” inves","content":"Here’s yet another sign that the bull market is getting long in the tooth: “Older” and “wiser” investors are being dismissed as hopelessly old-fashioned, while those young enough to have never experienced a major bear market are making a killing.<blockquote>这是牛市即将到来的另一个迹象： “年长 ”和 “聪明 ”的投资者被认为是无可救药的守旧派，而那些年轻到从未经历过大熊市的投资者则大赚一笔。</blockquote> There is no shortage of examples, but a perfect illustration is&nbsp;a comment attributed to David Portnoy in the summer of 2020. Portnoy, of course, is the internet celebrity and founder of Barstool Sports. After reportedly producing a day-trading profit of close to $5 million in just two months’ time, he said:“I’m sure Warren Buffett is a great guy but when it comes to stocks he is washed up.”<blockquote>不乏例子，但一个完美的例子是2020年夏天大卫·波特诺伊的评论。波特诺伊当然是网络红人，也是吧台凳运动的创始人。据报道，在短短两个月内就获得了近 500 万美元的日内交易利润后，他说：“我相信沃伦-巴菲特是个好人，但一谈到股票，他就被淘汰了。.”</blockquote> I need not remind you that Buffett, widely considered the most successful long-term investor alive today, is 91 years old.<blockquote>我不需要提醒你，被广泛认为是当今最成功的长期投资者的巴菲特已经91岁了。</blockquote> This attitude towards our elders reminds me of what Adam Smith, the pseudonymous author of the classic book in the late 1960s titled “The Money Game,” called a “kids’ market.” He was referring to speculative periods in which the investors making the most money are too young to remember prior major bear markets.<blockquote>这种对长辈的态度让我想起了 20 世纪 60 年代末经典著作《金钱游戏》的笔名作者亚当-斯密所说的 “儿童市场”。他指的是投机时期，在这些时期，赚最多钱的投资者太年轻，不记得之前的重大熊市。</blockquote> To illustrate, Smith introduced readers to a Wall Street manager who went by the name The Great Winfield, who only hired traders who were in their 20s: “The strength of my kids is that they are too young to remember anything bad, and they are making so much money that they feel invincible,” Winfield was quoted as saying. “Now you know and I know that one day the orchestra will stop playing and the wind will rattle through the broken window panes, and the anticipation of this freezes [the rest of] us” who are old enough to remember.<blockquote>为了说明这一点，史密斯向读者介绍了一位名叫伟大的温菲尔德的华尔街经理，他只雇佣 20 多岁的交易员： “温菲尔德被引述说：”我的孩子们的优势在于他们太小了，不记得任何不好的事情，而且他们赚的钱太多了，以至于他们觉得自己不可战胜。“现在你知道，我也知道，总有一天，管弦乐队会停止演奏，风会在破碎的窗玻璃上嘎吱作响，对这一切的期待会冻结（我们其余的）人”，这些人年纪足够大，可以记住。</blockquote> (For the record, I should stress that Portnoy is in his 40s, not his 20s. But his attitude is paradigmatic of what Smith had in mind.)<blockquote>（需要说明的是，波特诺伊只有 40 多岁，而不是 20 多岁。但他的态度体现了史密斯的想法。）</blockquote> Smith referred to the stocks that the “kids” were buying as “swinger stocks,” which at the time he wrote his book had names like “data processing” or “computer” in their names. Today the swingers are securities such as Tesla&nbsp;(TSLA), bitcoin, GameStop&nbsp;(GME), AMC Entertainment&nbsp;(AMC), Inc. Class A Report&nbsp;and other meme stocks. But the underlying pattern is the same.<blockquote>史密斯将 “孩子们 ”购买的股票称为 “摇摆股”，在他写书时，这些股票的名称中还有 “数据处理 ”或 “计算机 ”等名称。如今，换妻者是证券，如特斯拉（特斯拉）、比特币、游戏驿站（GME）、AMC院线（AMC)、Inc. A 类报告和其他模因股票。但潜在的模式是一样的。</blockquote> As Smith recounted it, Winfield ridiculed at an older manager who raised doubts about “swinger” stocks. “Look at the skepticism on the face of this dirty old man… Look at him, framing questions about depreciation” and the like. “You can’t make any money with questions like that… Memory can get in the way of such a jolly market.”<blockquote>在史密斯讲述这件事时，温菲尔德嘲笑了一位对 “摇摆 ”股票提出质疑的老经理。“看看这个肮脏的老头脸上的怀疑.看看他，对贬值提出质疑”之类的。“这样的问题是赚不到钱的.记忆会妨碍这样一个快乐的市场”。</blockquote> Growth vs. Value<blockquote>增长与价值</blockquote> Nowhere on Wall Street is the Kids’ Market more obvious than in the contrast between, on the one hand, the headline-grabbing returns of high-flying growth stocks and, on the other, the market-lagging performance of value stocks. Value stocks tend to be favored by more seasoned investors, those who have lived through a prior major bear market.<blockquote>在华尔街，儿童市场最为明显的是，一方面是高歌猛进的成长股的头条新闻回报，另一方面是价值股落后于市场的表现。价值股往往受到更有经验的投资者的青睐，即那些经历过之前的大熊市的投资者。</blockquote> As is widely known, value stocks have suffered mightily in recent years, in contrast to its record over the previous century in which they came out well ahead. And their market-lagging returns are exacting a toll on the editors of value-oriented newsletters. Their performances have suffered so much that some have thrown in the towel and stopped publishing altogether, and others are seriously considering it.<blockquote>众所周知，价值股近年来遭受了巨大的损失，这与上个世纪远远领先的记录形成了鲜明对比。他们落后于市场的回报给以价值为导向的时事通讯的编辑带来了损失。他们的表演受到了如此大的影响，以至于一些人已经认输，完全停止出版，其他人正在认真考虑。</blockquote> A consistent theme emerges in my conversations with some of these editors: Investors in recent years have stopped wanting to pay for advice. Why should they when the market is skyrocketing and on Reddit you can get free advice about the latest meme stocks on whose bandwagon we should jump?<blockquote>在我与其中一些编辑的谈话中，出现了一个一致的主题：近年来，投资者不再愿意为建议付费。当市场飙升时，他们为什么要这样做，在 Reddit 上，您可以获得有关我们应该追随的最新模因股票的免费建议？</blockquote> The answer, of course, is that advice becomes most worthwhile when the market is struggling. When the market is soaring, everyone looks like a genius. This is the source of the age-old wisdom that we shouldn’t confuse brains with a bull market.<blockquote>当然，答案是，当市场陷入困境时，建议变得最有价值。当市场飙升时，每个人看起来都像个天才。这就是我们不应该把大脑和牛市混为一谈的古老智慧的来源。</blockquote> For an historical perspective, it’s instructive to compare the market-lagging performance of value advisers in recent years with their market-beating returns after the internet bubble burst in early 2000. The bursting of that bubble, of course, represented the end of the last significant period in which value had lagged growth.<blockquote>从历史角度来看，将价值顾问近年来落后于市场的表现与 2000 年初互联网泡沫破裂后跑赢市场的回报进行比较是很有启发性的。当然，泡沫的破裂标志着价值增长滞后的最后一个重要时期的结束。</blockquote> To conduct this comparison, I focused on those newsletters in the Hulbert Financial Digest’s performance database that are closest to the value end of the spectrum.<blockquote>为了进行比较，我重点关注了《赫尔伯特金融文摘》绩效数据库中最接近价值端的时事通讯。</blockquote> I did this by measuring the extent of each newsletter’s correlation with thevalue stock index created by University of Chicago finance professor (and Nobel laureate) Eugene Fama and Dartmouth professor Ken French. Eight newsletters were correlated to a statistically significant degree.<blockquote>我通过测量每份时事通讯与芝加哥大学金融学教授（诺贝尔奖获得者）尤金-法马（Eugene Fama）和达特茅斯大学教授肯-弗伦奇（Ken French）创建的价值股票指数的相关性程度来做到这一点。八份时事通讯具有统计学意义。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d433a215ec4fa806a3982f9083946c5\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The accompanying chart plots these newsletters’ average returns. As you can see, these eight newsletters over the past five years not surprisingly lagged the S&amp;P 500 on a total return basis by 4.3 annualized percentage points. Yet in the 2000-2002 bear market that occurred in the wake of the bursting of the internet bubble, these eight newsletters actually made money (1.1% annualized) while the S&amp;P 500 was producing an annualized loss of 20.7%.<blockquote>随附图表绘制了这些时事通讯的平均回报率。正如您所看到的，过去五年中，这八份时事通讯的总回报率不出所料地落后于标普500 4.3 个百分点。然而，在互联网泡沫破裂后发生的2000-2002年熊市中，这八份时事通讯实际上赚了钱（年化1.1%），而标普500的年化亏损为20.7%。</blockquote> It’s impossible to know whether value stock strategies in general, and value-oriented newsletters in particular, will outperform growth stocks by similar margins in the next bear market. But I wouldn’t be surprised. Growth stocks currently are priced on the assumption that their growth will continue more or less indefinitely. A recession, which inevitably will happen sooner or later, will remind all of us that this assumption is dangerously wrong.<blockquote>在下一个熊市中，一般价值股票策略，尤其是价值导向的时事通讯，是否会以类似的优势跑赢成长型股票，我们不得而知。但我不会感到惊讶。成长型股票目前的定价假设其增长将或多或少无限期地持续下去。经济衰退迟早会发生，它会提醒我们所有人，这种假设是危险的错误。</blockquote> The bottom line? Think twice before giving up on value strategies.<blockquote>底线？在放弃价值策略之前要三思。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>We're in a 'Kids Market,' so Don't Give up on Value Strategies<blockquote>我们处于“儿童市场”，所以不要放弃价值策略</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWe're in a 'Kids Market,' so Don't Give up on Value Strategies<blockquote>我们处于“儿童市场”，所以不要放弃价值策略</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nThestreet2021-11-22 14:39\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHere’s yet another sign that the bull market is getting long in the tooth: “Older” and “wiser” investors are being dismissed as hopelessly old-fashioned, while those young enough to have never experienced a major bear market are making a killing.<blockquote>这是牛市即将到来的另一个迹象： “年长 ”和 “聪明 ”的投资者被认为是无可救药的守旧派，而那些年轻到从未经历过大熊市的投资者则大赚一笔。</blockquote> There is no shortage of examples, but a perfect illustration is&nbsp;a comment attributed to David Portnoy in the summer of 2020. Portnoy, of course, is the internet celebrity and founder of Barstool Sports. After reportedly producing a day-trading profit of close to $5 million in just two months’ time, he said:“I’m sure Warren Buffett is a great guy but when it comes to stocks he is washed up.”<blockquote>不乏例子，但一个完美的例子是2020年夏天大卫·波特诺伊的评论。波特诺伊当然是网络红人，也是吧台凳运动的创始人。据报道，在短短两个月内就获得了近 500 万美元的日内交易利润后，他说：“我相信沃伦-巴菲特是个好人，但一谈到股票，他就被淘汰了。.”</blockquote> I need not remind you that Buffett, widely considered the most successful long-term investor alive today, is 91 years old.<blockquote>我不需要提醒你，被广泛认为是当今最成功的长期投资者的巴菲特已经91岁了。</blockquote> This attitude towards our elders reminds me of what Adam Smith, the pseudonymous author of the classic book in the late 1960s titled “The Money Game,” called a “kids’ market.” He was referring to speculative periods in which the investors making the most money are too young to remember prior major bear markets.<blockquote>这种对长辈的态度让我想起了 20 世纪 60 年代末经典著作《金钱游戏》的笔名作者亚当-斯密所说的 “儿童市场”。他指的是投机时期，在这些时期，赚最多钱的投资者太年轻，不记得之前的重大熊市。</blockquote> To illustrate, Smith introduced readers to a Wall Street manager who went by the name The Great Winfield, who only hired traders who were in their 20s: “The strength of my kids is that they are too young to remember anything bad, and they are making so much money that they feel invincible,” Winfield was quoted as saying. “Now you know and I know that one day the orchestra will stop playing and the wind will rattle through the broken window panes, and the anticipation of this freezes [the rest of] us” who are old enough to remember.<blockquote>为了说明这一点，史密斯向读者介绍了一位名叫伟大的温菲尔德的华尔街经理，他只雇佣 20 多岁的交易员： “温菲尔德被引述说：”我的孩子们的优势在于他们太小了，不记得任何不好的事情，而且他们赚的钱太多了，以至于他们觉得自己不可战胜。“现在你知道，我也知道，总有一天，管弦乐队会停止演奏，风会在破碎的窗玻璃上嘎吱作响，对这一切的期待会冻结（我们其余的）人”，这些人年纪足够大，可以记住。</blockquote> (For the record, I should stress that Portnoy is in his 40s, not his 20s. But his attitude is paradigmatic of what Smith had in mind.)<blockquote>（需要说明的是，波特诺伊只有 40 多岁，而不是 20 多岁。但他的态度体现了史密斯的想法。）</blockquote> Smith referred to the stocks that the “kids” were buying as “swinger stocks,” which at the time he wrote his book had names like “data processing” or “computer” in their names. Today the swingers are securities such as Tesla&nbsp;(TSLA), bitcoin, GameStop&nbsp;(GME), AMC Entertainment&nbsp;(AMC), Inc. Class A Report&nbsp;and other meme stocks. But the underlying pattern is the same.<blockquote>史密斯将 “孩子们 ”购买的股票称为 “摇摆股”，在他写书时，这些股票的名称中还有 “数据处理 ”或 “计算机 ”等名称。如今，换妻者是证券，如特斯拉（特斯拉）、比特币、游戏驿站（GME）、AMC院线（AMC)、Inc. A 类报告和其他模因股票。但潜在的模式是一样的。</blockquote> As Smith recounted it, Winfield ridiculed at an older manager who raised doubts about “swinger” stocks. “Look at the skepticism on the face of this dirty old man… Look at him, framing questions about depreciation” and the like. “You can’t make any money with questions like that… Memory can get in the way of such a jolly market.”<blockquote>在史密斯讲述这件事时，温菲尔德嘲笑了一位对 “摇摆 ”股票提出质疑的老经理。“看看这个肮脏的老头脸上的怀疑.看看他，对贬值提出质疑”之类的。“这样的问题是赚不到钱的.记忆会妨碍这样一个快乐的市场”。</blockquote> Growth vs. Value<blockquote>增长与价值</blockquote> Nowhere on Wall Street is the Kids’ Market more obvious than in the contrast between, on the one hand, the headline-grabbing returns of high-flying growth stocks and, on the other, the market-lagging performance of value stocks. Value stocks tend to be favored by more seasoned investors, those who have lived through a prior major bear market.<blockquote>在华尔街，儿童市场最为明显的是，一方面是高歌猛进的成长股的头条新闻回报，另一方面是价值股落后于市场的表现。价值股往往受到更有经验的投资者的青睐，即那些经历过之前的大熊市的投资者。</blockquote> As is widely known, value stocks have suffered mightily in recent years, in contrast to its record over the previous century in which they came out well ahead. And their market-lagging returns are exacting a toll on the editors of value-oriented newsletters. Their performances have suffered so much that some have thrown in the towel and stopped publishing altogether, and others are seriously considering it.<blockquote>众所周知，价值股近年来遭受了巨大的损失，这与上个世纪远远领先的记录形成了鲜明对比。他们落后于市场的回报给以价值为导向的时事通讯的编辑带来了损失。他们的表演受到了如此大的影响，以至于一些人已经认输，完全停止出版，其他人正在认真考虑。</blockquote> A consistent theme emerges in my conversations with some of these editors: Investors in recent years have stopped wanting to pay for advice. Why should they when the market is skyrocketing and on Reddit you can get free advice about the latest meme stocks on whose bandwagon we should jump?<blockquote>在我与其中一些编辑的谈话中，出现了一个一致的主题：近年来，投资者不再愿意为建议付费。当市场飙升时，他们为什么要这样做，在 Reddit 上，您可以获得有关我们应该追随的最新模因股票的免费建议？</blockquote> The answer, of course, is that advice becomes most worthwhile when the market is struggling. When the market is soaring, everyone looks like a genius. This is the source of the age-old wisdom that we shouldn’t confuse brains with a bull market.<blockquote>当然，答案是，当市场陷入困境时，建议变得最有价值。当市场飙升时，每个人看起来都像个天才。这就是我们不应该把大脑和牛市混为一谈的古老智慧的来源。</blockquote> For an historical perspective, it’s instructive to compare the market-lagging performance of value advisers in recent years with their market-beating returns after the internet bubble burst in early 2000. The bursting of that bubble, of course, represented the end of the last significant period in which value had lagged growth.<blockquote>从历史角度来看，将价值顾问近年来落后于市场的表现与 2000 年初互联网泡沫破裂后跑赢市场的回报进行比较是很有启发性的。当然，泡沫的破裂标志着价值增长滞后的最后一个重要时期的结束。</blockquote> To conduct this comparison, I focused on those newsletters in the Hulbert Financial Digest’s performance database that are closest to the value end of the spectrum.<blockquote>为了进行比较，我重点关注了《赫尔伯特金融文摘》绩效数据库中最接近价值端的时事通讯。</blockquote> I did this by measuring the extent of each newsletter’s correlation with thevalue stock index created by University of Chicago finance professor (and Nobel laureate) Eugene Fama and Dartmouth professor Ken French. Eight newsletters were correlated to a statistically significant degree.<blockquote>我通过测量每份时事通讯与芝加哥大学金融学教授（诺贝尔奖获得者）尤金-法马（Eugene Fama）和达特茅斯大学教授肯-弗伦奇（Ken French）创建的价值股票指数的相关性程度来做到这一点。八份时事通讯具有统计学意义。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d433a215ec4fa806a3982f9083946c5\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The accompanying chart plots these newsletters’ average returns. As you can see, these eight newsletters over the past five years not surprisingly lagged the S&amp;P 500 on a total return basis by 4.3 annualized percentage points. Yet in the 2000-2002 bear market that occurred in the wake of the bursting of the internet bubble, these eight newsletters actually made money (1.1% annualized) while the S&amp;P 500 was producing an annualized loss of 20.7%.<blockquote>随附图表绘制了这些时事通讯的平均回报率。正如您所看到的，过去五年中，这八份时事通讯的总回报率不出所料地落后于标普500 4.3 个百分点。然而，在互联网泡沫破裂后发生的2000-2002年熊市中，这八份时事通讯实际上赚了钱（年化1.1%），而标普500的年化亏损为20.7%。</blockquote> It’s impossible to know whether value stock strategies in general, and value-oriented newsletters in particular, will outperform growth stocks by similar margins in the next bear market. But I wouldn’t be surprised. Growth stocks currently are priced on the assumption that their growth will continue more or less indefinitely. A recession, which inevitably will happen sooner or later, will remind all of us that this assumption is dangerously wrong.<blockquote>在下一个熊市中，一般价值股票策略，尤其是价值导向的时事通讯，是否会以类似的优势跑赢成长型股票，我们不得而知。但我不会感到惊讶。成长型股票目前的定价假设其增长将或多或少无限期地持续下去。经济衰退迟早会发生，它会提醒我们所有人，这种假设是危险的错误。</blockquote> The bottom line? Think twice before giving up on value strategies.<blockquote>底线？在放弃价值策略之前要三思。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/were-in-a-kids-market-invest-accordingly?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">Thestreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/were-in-a-kids-market-invest-accordingly?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199324282","content_text":"Here’s yet another sign that the bull market is getting long in the tooth: “Older” and “wiser” investors are being dismissed as hopelessly old-fashioned, while those young enough to have never experienced a major bear market are making a killing.\nThere is no shortage of examples, but a perfect illustration is a comment attributed to David Portnoy in the summer of 2020. Portnoy, of course, is the internet celebrity and founder of Barstool Sports. After reportedly producing a day-trading profit of close to $5 million in just two months’ time, he said:“I’m sure Warren Buffett is a great guy but when it comes to stocks he is washed up.”\nI need not remind you that Buffett, widely considered the most successful long-term investor alive today, is 91 years old.\nThis attitude towards our elders reminds me of what Adam Smith, the pseudonymous author of the classic book in the late 1960s titled “The Money Game,” called a “kids’ market.” He was referring to speculative periods in which the investors making the most money are too young to remember prior major bear markets.\nTo illustrate, Smith introduced readers to a Wall Street manager who went by the name The Great Winfield, who only hired traders who were in their 20s: “The strength of my kids is that they are too young to remember anything bad, and they are making so much money that they feel invincible,” Winfield was quoted as saying. “Now you know and I know that one day the orchestra will stop playing and the wind will rattle through the broken window panes, and the anticipation of this freezes [the rest of] us” who are old enough to remember.\n(For the record, I should stress that Portnoy is in his 40s, not his 20s. But his attitude is paradigmatic of what Smith had in mind.)\nSmith referred to the stocks that the “kids” were buying as “swinger stocks,” which at the time he wrote his book had names like “data processing” or “computer” in their names. Today the swingers are securities such as Tesla (TSLA), bitcoin, GameStop (GME), AMC Entertainment (AMC), Inc. Class A Report and other meme stocks. But the underlying pattern is the same.\nAs Smith recounted it, Winfield ridiculed at an older manager who raised doubts about “swinger” stocks. “Look at the skepticism on the face of this dirty old man… Look at him, framing questions about depreciation” and the like. “You can’t make any money with questions like that… Memory can get in the way of such a jolly market.”\nGrowth vs. Value\nNowhere on Wall Street is the Kids’ Market more obvious than in the contrast between, on the one hand, the headline-grabbing returns of high-flying growth stocks and, on the other, the market-lagging performance of value stocks. Value stocks tend to be favored by more seasoned investors, those who have lived through a prior major bear market.\nAs is widely known, value stocks have suffered mightily in recent years, in contrast to its record over the previous century in which they came out well ahead. And their market-lagging returns are exacting a toll on the editors of value-oriented newsletters. Their performances have suffered so much that some have thrown in the towel and stopped publishing altogether, and others are seriously considering it.\nA consistent theme emerges in my conversations with some of these editors: Investors in recent years have stopped wanting to pay for advice. Why should they when the market is skyrocketing and on Reddit you can get free advice about the latest meme stocks on whose bandwagon we should jump?\nThe answer, of course, is that advice becomes most worthwhile when the market is struggling. When the market is soaring, everyone looks like a genius. This is the source of the age-old wisdom that we shouldn’t confuse brains with a bull market.\nFor an historical perspective, it’s instructive to compare the market-lagging performance of value advisers in recent years with their market-beating returns after the internet bubble burst in early 2000. The bursting of that bubble, of course, represented the end of the last significant period in which value had lagged growth.\nTo conduct this comparison, I focused on those newsletters in the Hulbert Financial Digest’s performance database that are closest to the value end of the spectrum.\nI did this by measuring the extent of each newsletter’s correlation with thevalue stock index created by University of Chicago finance professor (and Nobel laureate) Eugene Fama and Dartmouth professor Ken French. Eight newsletters were correlated to a statistically significant degree.\n\nThe accompanying chart plots these newsletters’ average returns. As you can see, these eight newsletters over the past five years not surprisingly lagged the S&P 500 on a total return basis by 4.3 annualized percentage points. Yet in the 2000-2002 bear market that occurred in the wake of the bursting of the internet bubble, these eight newsletters actually made money (1.1% annualized) while the S&P 500 was producing an annualized loss of 20.7%.\nIt’s impossible to know whether value stock strategies in general, and value-oriented newsletters in particular, will outperform growth stocks by similar margins in the next bear market. But I wouldn’t be surprised. Growth stocks currently are priced on the assumption that their growth will continue more or less indefinitely. A recession, which inevitably will happen sooner or later, will remind all of us that this assumption is dangerously wrong.\nThe bottom line? Think twice before giving up on value strategies.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":827,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/872450876"}