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2021-11-16
Seems like aapl hasnt got much to offer lately. May tap into the metaverse trend?
Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%<blockquote>卖苹果？为什么这位专家认为苹果股价下跌 12%</blockquote>
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May tap into the metaverse trend?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871152524","repostId":1116429379,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1116429379","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637033648,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1116429379?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-16 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%<blockquote>卖苹果？为什么这位专家认为苹果股价下跌 12%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116429379","media":"Thestreet","summary":"As Apple stock(AAPL) continues to hover around $150 apiece, one of the few skeptics on Wall Street h","content":"<p>As Apple stock(<b>AAPL</b>) continues to hover around $150 apiece, one of the few skeptics on Wall Street has just published his most updated report. In it, he reinforced the idea that AAPL should be worth only $132, suggesting that shares have 12% of downside risk from here.</p><p><blockquote>作为苹果股票（<b>苹果</b>）继续徘徊在每股 150 美元左右，华尔街为数不多的怀疑论者之一刚刚发布了他的最新报告。在其中，他强化了 AAPL 的价值应仅 132 美元的观点，表明该股从现在起有 12% 的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven revisits Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi’s mildly bearish case.</p><p><blockquote>今天，这位苹果专家重温了伯恩斯坦的托尼-萨科纳吉（Toni Sacconaghi）的温和看跌案例。</blockquote></p><p> The not-so-bullish case</p><p><blockquote>不那么乐观的情况</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Sacconaghi has been cautious of AAPL since he downgraded the stock to neutral, in February 2018. The timing of his move did not prove to be the best, as Apple shares have climbed a whopping 285% in less than four years against the S&P 500’s 85% gains. However, the analyst has also helped AAPL investors think of the devil’s advocate argument.</p><p><blockquote>自 2018 年 2 月将 AAPL 股票评级下调至中性以来，萨科纳吉先生一直对该股持谨慎态度。事实证明，他此举的时机并不是最佳时机，因为苹果的股价在不到四年的时间里上涨了 285%，而标普500的涨幅为 85%。不过，这位分析师也帮助苹果公司的投资者思考了魔鬼代言人的论点。</blockquote></p><p> In August, I reviewed Bernstein’s thesis in more detail. For the short term, the bank’s research team was concerned that Apple stock had climbed too fast in the first half of the year, ahead of a set of earnings seasons in which Apple would face tough comps.</p><p><blockquote>八月份，我更详细地回顾了伯恩斯坦的论文。从短期来看，该银行的研究团队担心苹果股价在今年上半年攀升过快，而苹果将面临一系列艰难的财报季。</blockquote></p><p> Also, Toni has mentioned valuations as a key risk. While he believes that AAPL should be valued at a higher multiple than the S&P 500, the analyst questions how much is too much. Bernstein’s target P/E of 25 times is one to two turns lower than where the multiple is today.</p><p><blockquote>此外，托尼还提到估值是一个关键风险。虽然他认为苹果公司的估值应该高于标普500，但这位分析师质疑多少才算太多。伯恩斯坦的目标市盈率为 25 倍，比目前的市盈率低一到两倍。</blockquote></p><p> Add App Store to the list</p><p><blockquote>将App Store添加到列表</blockquote></p><p> Now, the analyst has added one item to the list of worries: the App Store. Sacconaghi pointed out that a recent court loss will likely mean that payments will be allowed to be made outside the App Store platform in the US, starting as early as next month.</p><p><blockquote>现在，这位分析师在担忧清单上又增加了一个项目：App Store。萨科纳吉指出，最近的法庭败诉可能意味着最早从下个月开始，将允许在美国 App Store 平台之外进行付款。</blockquote></p><p> Bernstein’s expert has done the math. He estimates that nearly one-third of App Store revenues come from the United States. If the App Store accounts for 6% and 15% of total company sales and op profits, respectively, the payment issue could impact 2% of Apple’s revenues and 5% of op profits per year.</p><p><blockquote>伯恩斯坦的专家已经算了一笔账。他估计，App Store近三分之一的收入来自美国。如果 App Store 分别占公司总销售额和 op 利润的 6% 和 15%，那么支付问题每年可能会影响苹果 2% 的收入和 5% 的 op 利润。</blockquote></p><p> Apple Maven’s take</p><p><blockquote>苹果·马文的观点</blockquote></p><p> Regarding Toni’s earlier concerns, I believe that the risks have decreased substantially since AAPL peaked, in early September. Since then, investors have had time to fully embrace the more challenging late 2021-to-early 2022 period of tough comps and supply chain constraints.As I mentioned not long ago, valuations have de-risked to more reasonable levels.</p><p><blockquote>关于托尼之前的担忧，我认为自 9 月初 AAPL 达到顶峰以来，风险已经大大降低。从那时起，投资者有时间充分接受2021年底至2022年初更具挑战性的艰难竞争和供应链限制时期。正如我不久前提到的，估值已经降低到更合理的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding the App Store, I have slowly shifted from more to less concerned about the financial impact. Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty has argued that App Store policy changes could shave a maximum of 1% or 2% of Apple’s EPS, which is not much at all.</p><p><blockquote>关于 App Store，我已经慢慢从更多关注财务影响转变为不太关注。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的凯蒂-休伯蒂（Katy Huberty）认为，App Store 政策的变化最多可能使苹果的每股收益减少 1% 或 2%，这根本不算什么。</blockquote></p><p> Even Sacconaghi’s estimates of the financial risk only represents the worst-case scenario. In reality, much less than 2% of Apple’s revenues and 5% of op profits will likely end up being cut as a result of the App Store’s payment changes, as many users will continue to choose Apple as their payment platform of choice.</p><p><blockquote>即使是萨科纳吉对金融风险的估计也只代表了最坏的情况。实际上，由于 App Store 的支付方式发生变化，苹果收入的 2% 和运营商利润的 5% 最终可能会被削减，因为许多用户将继续选择苹果作为他们的首选支付平台。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%<blockquote>卖苹果？为什么这位专家认为苹果股价下跌 12%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%<blockquote>卖苹果？为什么这位专家认为苹果股价下跌 12%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-16 11:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As Apple stock(<b>AAPL</b>) continues to hover around $150 apiece, one of the few skeptics on Wall Street has just published his most updated report. In it, he reinforced the idea that AAPL should be worth only $132, suggesting that shares have 12% of downside risk from here.</p><p><blockquote>作为苹果股票（<b>苹果</b>）继续徘徊在每股 150 美元左右，华尔街为数不多的怀疑论者之一刚刚发布了他的最新报告。在其中，他强化了 AAPL 的价值应仅 132 美元的观点，表明该股从现在起有 12% 的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven revisits Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi’s mildly bearish case.</p><p><blockquote>今天，这位苹果专家重温了伯恩斯坦的托尼-萨科纳吉（Toni Sacconaghi）的温和看跌案例。</blockquote></p><p> The not-so-bullish case</p><p><blockquote>不那么乐观的情况</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Sacconaghi has been cautious of AAPL since he downgraded the stock to neutral, in February 2018. The timing of his move did not prove to be the best, as Apple shares have climbed a whopping 285% in less than four years against the S&P 500’s 85% gains. However, the analyst has also helped AAPL investors think of the devil’s advocate argument.</p><p><blockquote>自 2018 年 2 月将 AAPL 股票评级下调至中性以来，萨科纳吉先生一直对该股持谨慎态度。事实证明，他此举的时机并不是最佳时机，因为苹果的股价在不到四年的时间里上涨了 285%，而标普500的涨幅为 85%。不过，这位分析师也帮助苹果公司的投资者思考了魔鬼代言人的论点。</blockquote></p><p> In August, I reviewed Bernstein’s thesis in more detail. For the short term, the bank’s research team was concerned that Apple stock had climbed too fast in the first half of the year, ahead of a set of earnings seasons in which Apple would face tough comps.</p><p><blockquote>八月份，我更详细地回顾了伯恩斯坦的论文。从短期来看，该银行的研究团队担心苹果股价在今年上半年攀升过快，而苹果将面临一系列艰难的财报季。</blockquote></p><p> Also, Toni has mentioned valuations as a key risk. While he believes that AAPL should be valued at a higher multiple than the S&P 500, the analyst questions how much is too much. Bernstein’s target P/E of 25 times is one to two turns lower than where the multiple is today.</p><p><blockquote>此外，托尼还提到估值是一个关键风险。虽然他认为苹果公司的估值应该高于标普500，但这位分析师质疑多少才算太多。伯恩斯坦的目标市盈率为 25 倍，比目前的市盈率低一到两倍。</blockquote></p><p> Add App Store to the list</p><p><blockquote>将App Store添加到列表</blockquote></p><p> Now, the analyst has added one item to the list of worries: the App Store. Sacconaghi pointed out that a recent court loss will likely mean that payments will be allowed to be made outside the App Store platform in the US, starting as early as next month.</p><p><blockquote>现在，这位分析师在担忧清单上又增加了一个项目：App Store。萨科纳吉指出，最近的法庭败诉可能意味着最早从下个月开始，将允许在美国 App Store 平台之外进行付款。</blockquote></p><p> Bernstein’s expert has done the math. He estimates that nearly one-third of App Store revenues come from the United States. If the App Store accounts for 6% and 15% of total company sales and op profits, respectively, the payment issue could impact 2% of Apple’s revenues and 5% of op profits per year.</p><p><blockquote>伯恩斯坦的专家已经算了一笔账。他估计，App Store近三分之一的收入来自美国。如果 App Store 分别占公司总销售额和 op 利润的 6% 和 15%，那么支付问题每年可能会影响苹果 2% 的收入和 5% 的 op 利润。</blockquote></p><p> Apple Maven’s take</p><p><blockquote>苹果·马文的观点</blockquote></p><p> Regarding Toni’s earlier concerns, I believe that the risks have decreased substantially since AAPL peaked, in early September. Since then, investors have had time to fully embrace the more challenging late 2021-to-early 2022 period of tough comps and supply chain constraints.As I mentioned not long ago, valuations have de-risked to more reasonable levels.</p><p><blockquote>关于托尼之前的担忧，我认为自 9 月初 AAPL 达到顶峰以来，风险已经大大降低。从那时起，投资者有时间充分接受2021年底至2022年初更具挑战性的艰难竞争和供应链限制时期。正如我不久前提到的，估值已经降低到更合理的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding the App Store, I have slowly shifted from more to less concerned about the financial impact. Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty has argued that App Store policy changes could shave a maximum of 1% or 2% of Apple’s EPS, which is not much at all.</p><p><blockquote>关于 App Store，我已经慢慢从更多关注财务影响转变为不太关注。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的凯蒂-休伯蒂（Katy Huberty）认为，App Store 政策的变化最多可能使苹果的每股收益减少 1% 或 2%，这根本不算什么。</blockquote></p><p> Even Sacconaghi’s estimates of the financial risk only represents the worst-case scenario. In reality, much less than 2% of Apple’s revenues and 5% of op profits will likely end up being cut as a result of the App Store’s payment changes, as many users will continue to choose Apple as their payment platform of choice.</p><p><blockquote>即使是萨科纳吉对金融风险的估计也只代表了最坏的情况。实际上，由于 App Store 的支付方式发生变化，苹果收入的 2% 和运营商利润的 5% 最终可能会被削减，因为许多用户将继续选择苹果作为他们的首选支付平台。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/sell-aapl-why-this-expert-sees-apple-stock-dipping-12\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/sell-aapl-why-this-expert-sees-apple-stock-dipping-12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116429379","content_text":"As Apple stock(AAPL) continues to hover around $150 apiece, one of the few skeptics on Wall Street has just published his most updated report. In it, he reinforced the idea that AAPL should be worth only $132, suggesting that shares have 12% of downside risk from here.\nToday, the Apple Maven revisits Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi’s mildly bearish case.\nThe not-so-bullish case\nMr. Sacconaghi has been cautious of AAPL since he downgraded the stock to neutral, in February 2018. The timing of his move did not prove to be the best, as Apple shares have climbed a whopping 285% in less than four years against the S&P 500’s 85% gains. However, the analyst has also helped AAPL investors think of the devil’s advocate argument.\nIn August, I reviewed Bernstein’s thesis in more detail. For the short term, the bank’s research team was concerned that Apple stock had climbed too fast in the first half of the year, ahead of a set of earnings seasons in which Apple would face tough comps.\nAlso, Toni has mentioned valuations as a key risk. While he believes that AAPL should be valued at a higher multiple than the S&P 500, the analyst questions how much is too much. Bernstein’s target P/E of 25 times is one to two turns lower than where the multiple is today.\nAdd App Store to the list\nNow, the analyst has added one item to the list of worries: the App Store. Sacconaghi pointed out that a recent court loss will likely mean that payments will be allowed to be made outside the App Store platform in the US, starting as early as next month.\nBernstein’s expert has done the math. He estimates that nearly one-third of App Store revenues come from the United States. If the App Store accounts for 6% and 15% of total company sales and op profits, respectively, the payment issue could impact 2% of Apple’s revenues and 5% of op profits per year.\nApple Maven’s take\nRegarding Toni’s earlier concerns, I believe that the risks have decreased substantially since AAPL peaked, in early September. Since then, investors have had time to fully embrace the more challenging late 2021-to-early 2022 period of tough comps and supply chain constraints.As I mentioned not long ago, valuations have de-risked to more reasonable levels.\nRegarding the App Store, I have slowly shifted from more to less concerned about the financial impact. Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty has argued that App Store policy changes could shave a maximum of 1% or 2% of Apple’s EPS, which is not much at all.\nEven Sacconaghi’s estimates of the financial risk only represents the worst-case scenario. In reality, much less than 2% of Apple’s revenues and 5% of op profits will likely end up being cut as a result of the App Store’s payment changes, as many users will continue to choose Apple as their payment platform of choice.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1064,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":67,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/871152524"}
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