AcidIce
2021-09-22
Buy the dips! Push it until crack then short!
Why Morgan Stanley is starting to see ‘fire and ice’ and a bear-market drop as ‘more likely’ for stock-market investors<blockquote>为什么摩根士丹利开始将“火与冰”和熊市下跌视为股市投资者“更有可能”</blockquote>
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Push it until crack then short!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869403509","repostId":1118101852,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118101852","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632302285,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118101852?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-22 17:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Morgan Stanley is starting to see ‘fire and ice’ and a bear-market drop as ‘more likely’ for stock-market investors<blockquote>为什么摩根士丹利开始将“火与冰”和熊市下跌视为股市投资者“更有可能”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118101852","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the bull market ending in fire, though it could end in ice.\nInv","content":"<p>Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the bull market ending in fire, though it could end in ice.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）认为，牛市将在烈火中结束，尽管它也可能在冰中结束。</blockquote></p><p> Invoking the imagery from the Robert Frost poem “Fire & Ice,” the Morgan Stanley strategist said that he sees earnings revisions from American corporations “and higher frequency macro data” pointing to a decelerating economy, “amid demand pull forward, supply chain issues and margin pressure,” which he forecasts could lead to a 20% drop, a near-term outcome that he describes as “ice” for investors, in a research note dated Sept. 20.</p><p><blockquote>这位摩根士丹利策略师援引罗伯特-弗罗斯特（Robert Frost）的诗歌《火与冰》（Fire & Ice）中的意象说，他认为美国公司的盈利修正 “和更高频率的宏观数据 ”表明经济正在减速，“在需求拉动、供应链问题和利润率压力的情况下”，他预测这可能导致 20% 的下跌，他在 9 月 20 日的一份研究报告中称这一近期结果对投资者来说是 “冰”。</blockquote></p><p> Wilson wrote that he is starting to see a 20% fall as a “more likely” outcome for equity markets. However, during an interview on CNBC on Tuesday, the strategist maintained that 10% is still his “base case” scenario and held his forecast for the S&P 500 index to end the year around 4,000.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊写道，他开始认为股市下跌 20% 是 “更有可能 ”的结果。不过，在周二接受 CNBC 采访时，这位策略师坚持认为 10% 仍然是他的 “基本情况 ”情景，并维持他对标普500指数年底的预测在 4000 点左右。</blockquote></p><p> A fall of at least 20% from a recent peak is a widely accepted definition of a bear market, while a drop of 10% defines a correction.</p><p><blockquote>从最近的峰值下跌至少 20% 是熊市被广泛接受的定义，而下跌 10% 则定义为修正。</blockquote></p><p> His “fire” scenario, which he speculates would lead to a 10% slide for the market, would be precipitated by the Federal Reserve initiating its efforts to “remove monetary accommodation in response to an overheating economy.”</p><p><blockquote>他的 “火灾 ”情景将导致市场下滑 10%，而美联储将开始努力 “取消货币宽松以应对经济过热 ”，这将促成他的 “火灾 ”情景。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed will conclude its September meeting on Wednesday, and release an updated policy statement and a new set of projections for interest rates, including 2024 for the first time.</p><p><blockquote>美联储将于周三结束9月份会议，并发布更新后的政策声明和一套新的利率预测，其中首次包括2024年。</blockquote></p><p> The equity market already has been under selling pressure for several sessions before Monday’s slump which was partially attributed to concerns about possible global systemic risk resulting from a potential debt default by one of China’s biggest property developers: Evergrande 3333, -0.44%.</p><p><blockquote>在周一的暴跌之前，股市已经连续几个交易日承受抛售压力，部分原因是人们担心中国最大的房地产开发商之一恒大 3333，-0.44% 可能出现债务违约，可能引发全球系统性风险。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, the S&P 500 SPX, -0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.22% notched the worst daily declines since May 12 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.15% registered the sharpest one-day fall since July 19.</p><p><blockquote>周一，标普500 SPX指数（-0.08%）和纳斯达克综合指数（+0.22%）创下自5月12日以来最大单日跌幅，道琼斯工业平均指数（-0.15%）创下自7月19日以来最大单日跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 hasn’t seen a 5% pullback from its peak in about 220 sessions, the longest run since 2016, when the market went 404 sessions without falling by at least 5% peak to trough, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>根据道琼斯市场数据，标普500已经有大约 220 个交易日从峰值回调 5%，这是自 2016 年以来最长的一次，当时市场有 404 个交易日从峰值到谷值没有下跌至少 5%。</blockquote></p><p> Monday’s fall has the index about 4% from its Sept. 2 record close, while the Dow is off 4.65% from its Aug. 16 record and the Nasdaq Composite is down 4.3% from its Sept. 7 recent peak.</p><p><blockquote>周一的下跌使该指数较 9 月 2 日的历史收盘价下跌了约 4%，道琼斯指数较 8 月 16 日的历史收盘价下跌了 4.65%，纳斯达克综合指数较 9 月 7 日的近期峰值下跌了 4.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Wilson said that the break of the S&P 500 below its 50-day moving average, which occurred on Friday and then deepened on Monday, represents a change of trend for investors.</p><p><blockquote>Wilson表示，标普500周五跌破50日移动平均线，然后在周一加深，这对投资者来说代表着趋势的变化。</blockquote></p><p> “Well, I think the trend broke, so we did eventually” take out “the 50-day moving average…and it broke violently yesterday … and I think you gotta pay attention to that, Wilson said in his CNBC interview.</p><p><blockquote>“威尔逊在接受 CNBC 采访时说：“我认为趋势被打破了，所以我们最终 ”拿出了 “50 天移动平均线.昨天它猛烈地突破了.我认为你必须注意这一点。</blockquote></p><p> “I respect the market and I would suggest other people respect the market… and what that’s saying is that that trend was challenged,” Wilson said.</p><p><blockquote>“威尔逊说：”我尊重市场，我建议其他人也尊重市场.这意味着这种趋势受到了挑战。</blockquote></p><p> “I’m comfortable with our call,” he said, pooh-poohing criticism that investors have consistently bought the dip in this euphoric, pandemic-recovery cycle.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”我对我们的看涨期权感到满意，并对投资者在这个令人欣喜的大流行病复苏周期中一直逢低买入的批评嗤之以鼻。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Morgan Stanley is starting to see ‘fire and ice’ and a bear-market drop as ‘more likely’ for stock-market investors<blockquote>为什么摩根士丹利开始将“火与冰”和熊市下跌视为股市投资者“更有可能”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Morgan Stanley is starting to see ‘fire and ice’ and a bear-market drop as ‘more likely’ for stock-market investors<blockquote>为什么摩根士丹利开始将“火与冰”和熊市下跌视为股市投资者“更有可能”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-22 17:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the bull market ending in fire, though it could end in ice.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）认为，牛市将在烈火中结束，尽管它也可能在冰中结束。</blockquote></p><p> Invoking the imagery from the Robert Frost poem “Fire & Ice,” the Morgan Stanley strategist said that he sees earnings revisions from American corporations “and higher frequency macro data” pointing to a decelerating economy, “amid demand pull forward, supply chain issues and margin pressure,” which he forecasts could lead to a 20% drop, a near-term outcome that he describes as “ice” for investors, in a research note dated Sept. 20.</p><p><blockquote>这位摩根士丹利策略师援引罗伯特-弗罗斯特（Robert Frost）的诗歌《火与冰》（Fire & Ice）中的意象说，他认为美国公司的盈利修正 “和更高频率的宏观数据 ”表明经济正在减速，“在需求拉动、供应链问题和利润率压力的情况下”，他预测这可能导致 20% 的下跌，他在 9 月 20 日的一份研究报告中称这一近期结果对投资者来说是 “冰”。</blockquote></p><p> Wilson wrote that he is starting to see a 20% fall as a “more likely” outcome for equity markets. However, during an interview on CNBC on Tuesday, the strategist maintained that 10% is still his “base case” scenario and held his forecast for the S&P 500 index to end the year around 4,000.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊写道，他开始认为股市下跌 20% 是 “更有可能 ”的结果。不过，在周二接受 CNBC 采访时，这位策略师坚持认为 10% 仍然是他的 “基本情况 ”情景，并维持他对标普500指数年底的预测在 4000 点左右。</blockquote></p><p> A fall of at least 20% from a recent peak is a widely accepted definition of a bear market, while a drop of 10% defines a correction.</p><p><blockquote>从最近的峰值下跌至少 20% 是熊市被广泛接受的定义，而下跌 10% 则定义为修正。</blockquote></p><p> His “fire” scenario, which he speculates would lead to a 10% slide for the market, would be precipitated by the Federal Reserve initiating its efforts to “remove monetary accommodation in response to an overheating economy.”</p><p><blockquote>他的 “火灾 ”情景将导致市场下滑 10%，而美联储将开始努力 “取消货币宽松以应对经济过热 ”，这将促成他的 “火灾 ”情景。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed will conclude its September meeting on Wednesday, and release an updated policy statement and a new set of projections for interest rates, including 2024 for the first time.</p><p><blockquote>美联储将于周三结束9月份会议，并发布更新后的政策声明和一套新的利率预测，其中首次包括2024年。</blockquote></p><p> The equity market already has been under selling pressure for several sessions before Monday’s slump which was partially attributed to concerns about possible global systemic risk resulting from a potential debt default by one of China’s biggest property developers: Evergrande 3333, -0.44%.</p><p><blockquote>在周一的暴跌之前，股市已经连续几个交易日承受抛售压力，部分原因是人们担心中国最大的房地产开发商之一恒大 3333，-0.44% 可能出现债务违约，可能引发全球系统性风险。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, the S&P 500 SPX, -0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.22% notched the worst daily declines since May 12 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.15% registered the sharpest one-day fall since July 19.</p><p><blockquote>周一，标普500 SPX指数（-0.08%）和纳斯达克综合指数（+0.22%）创下自5月12日以来最大单日跌幅，道琼斯工业平均指数（-0.15%）创下自7月19日以来最大单日跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 hasn’t seen a 5% pullback from its peak in about 220 sessions, the longest run since 2016, when the market went 404 sessions without falling by at least 5% peak to trough, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>根据道琼斯市场数据，标普500已经有大约 220 个交易日从峰值回调 5%，这是自 2016 年以来最长的一次，当时市场有 404 个交易日从峰值到谷值没有下跌至少 5%。</blockquote></p><p> Monday’s fall has the index about 4% from its Sept. 2 record close, while the Dow is off 4.65% from its Aug. 16 record and the Nasdaq Composite is down 4.3% from its Sept. 7 recent peak.</p><p><blockquote>周一的下跌使该指数较 9 月 2 日的历史收盘价下跌了约 4%，道琼斯指数较 8 月 16 日的历史收盘价下跌了 4.65%，纳斯达克综合指数较 9 月 7 日的近期峰值下跌了 4.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Wilson said that the break of the S&P 500 below its 50-day moving average, which occurred on Friday and then deepened on Monday, represents a change of trend for investors.</p><p><blockquote>Wilson表示，标普500周五跌破50日移动平均线，然后在周一加深，这对投资者来说代表着趋势的变化。</blockquote></p><p> “Well, I think the trend broke, so we did eventually” take out “the 50-day moving average…and it broke violently yesterday … and I think you gotta pay attention to that, Wilson said in his CNBC interview.</p><p><blockquote>“威尔逊在接受 CNBC 采访时说：“我认为趋势被打破了，所以我们最终 ”拿出了 “50 天移动平均线.昨天它猛烈地突破了.我认为你必须注意这一点。</blockquote></p><p> “I respect the market and I would suggest other people respect the market… and what that’s saying is that that trend was challenged,” Wilson said.</p><p><blockquote>“威尔逊说：”我尊重市场，我建议其他人也尊重市场.这意味着这种趋势受到了挑战。</blockquote></p><p> “I’m comfortable with our call,” he said, pooh-poohing criticism that investors have consistently bought the dip in this euphoric, pandemic-recovery cycle.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”我对我们的看涨期权感到满意，并对投资者在这个令人欣喜的大流行病复苏周期中一直逢低买入的批评嗤之以鼻。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-morgan-stanleys-is-starting-to-see-fire-and-ice-and-a-bear-market-drop-as-more-likely-for-stock-market-investors-11632249935?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-morgan-stanleys-is-starting-to-see-fire-and-ice-and-a-bear-market-drop-as-more-likely-for-stock-market-investors-11632249935?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118101852","content_text":"Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the bull market ending in fire, though it could end in ice.\nInvoking the imagery from the Robert Frost poem “Fire & Ice,” the Morgan Stanley strategist said that he sees earnings revisions from American corporations “and higher frequency macro data” pointing to a decelerating economy, “amid demand pull forward, supply chain issues and margin pressure,” which he forecasts could lead to a 20% drop, a near-term outcome that he describes as “ice” for investors, in a research note dated Sept. 20.\nWilson wrote that he is starting to see a 20% fall as a “more likely” outcome for equity markets. However, during an interview on CNBC on Tuesday, the strategist maintained that 10% is still his “base case” scenario and held his forecast for the S&P 500 index to end the year around 4,000.\nA fall of at least 20% from a recent peak is a widely accepted definition of a bear market, while a drop of 10% defines a correction.\nHis “fire” scenario, which he speculates would lead to a 10% slide for the market, would be precipitated by the Federal Reserve initiating its efforts to “remove monetary accommodation in response to an overheating economy.”\nThe Fed will conclude its September meeting on Wednesday, and release an updated policy statement and a new set of projections for interest rates, including 2024 for the first time.\nThe equity market already has been under selling pressure for several sessions before Monday’s slump which was partially attributed to concerns about possible global systemic risk resulting from a potential debt default by one of China’s biggest property developers: Evergrande 3333, -0.44%.\nOn Monday, the S&P 500 SPX, -0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.22% notched the worst daily declines since May 12 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.15% registered the sharpest one-day fall since July 19.\nThe S&P 500 hasn’t seen a 5% pullback from its peak in about 220 sessions, the longest run since 2016, when the market went 404 sessions without falling by at least 5% peak to trough, according to Dow Jones Market Data.\nMonday’s fall has the index about 4% from its Sept. 2 record close, while the Dow is off 4.65% from its Aug. 16 record and the Nasdaq Composite is down 4.3% from its Sept. 7 recent peak.\nWilson said that the break of the S&P 500 below its 50-day moving average, which occurred on Friday and then deepened on Monday, represents a change of trend for investors.\n“Well, I think the trend broke, so we did eventually” take out “the 50-day moving average…and it broke violently yesterday … and I think you gotta pay attention to that, Wilson said in his CNBC interview.\n“I respect the market and I would suggest other people respect the market… and what that’s saying is that that trend was challenged,” Wilson said.\n“I’m comfortable with our call,” he said, pooh-poohing criticism that investors have consistently bought the dip in this euphoric, pandemic-recovery cycle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1157,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":37,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/869403509"}
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