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2021-09-28

is the norm

Why stocks could lose popularity as the market’s ‘presidential election cycle’ enters its second year<blockquote>为什么随着市场 “总统选举周期 ”进入第二年，股市可能会失去人气</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":866703351,"tweetId":"866703351","gmtCreate":1632801638973,"gmtModify":1632801639058,"author":{"id":3555136548043615,"idStr":"3555136548043615","authorId":3555136548043615,"authorIdStr":"3555136548043615","name":"Gee1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":17,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>is the norm</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>is the norm</body></html>","text":"is the norm","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866703351","repostId":1129085736,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129085736","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632800151,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129085736?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why stocks could lose popularity as the market’s ‘presidential election cycle’ enters its second year<blockquote>为什么随着市场 “总统选举周期 ”进入第二年，股市可能会失去人气</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129085736","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Stock returns typically weaken in the second year of a U.S. president’s four-year term.\n\nShould inve","content":" Stock returns typically weaken in the second year of a U.S. president’s four-year term. Should investors be worried that the second year of the “presidential election cycle” is about to begin? Followers of the cycle answer “yes,” since second years of the cycle are the worst, on average, of a U.S. president’s four-year term.<blockquote>美国总统四年任期的第二年，股票回报率通常会走弱。投资者是否应该担心 “总统大选周期 ”的第二年即将开始？周期的追随者回答是 “是的”，因为周期的第二年平均是美国总统四年任期中最糟糕的时期。</blockquote> Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.21% was created in 1896, the Dow’s average price-only return in non-second years has been more than nine percentage points higher than in second years.<blockquote>自 1896 年道琼斯道琼斯工业平均指数（+0.21%）创立以来，道琼斯指数在非第二年的平均纯价格回报率比第二年高出 9 个百分点以上。</blockquote> This result is not statistically significant, however. There is such wide variability in year-to-year performance that the averages don’t tell us much. In more than half of the presidential election cycle’s second years since the Dow’s creation, the U.S. benchmark index actually rose. Furthermore, as the accompanying chart shows, the Dow has risen in each of the past four second years — up 13.1% on average.<blockquote>然而，这一结果在统计学上并不显著。每年的业绩差异如此之大，以至于平均值并不能告诉我们太多。自道琼斯指数成立以来，在总统选举周期的第二年有一半以上的时间里，美国基准指数实际上都在上涨。此外，正如随附的图表所示，道琼斯指数在过去四年中每年都在上涨——平均上涨13.1%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd92bdd871c0bf68559547fe96caf17\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"942\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> At a minimum, therefore, we need to dig deeper into the data before basing any investment decisions on supposed second-year presidential-term weakness.<blockquote>因此，在根据假定的第二年总统任期疲软做出任何投资决策之前，我们至少需要更深入地挖掘数据。</blockquote> History of the presidential election cycle<blockquote>总统选举周期的历史</blockquote> The presidential election cycle is based on the unobjectionable notion that presidents and their political parties want to get re-elected. They therefore will swallow any necessary economic medicine early in their terms in order for the economy to be roaring by the time the next presidential election comes around.<blockquote>总统选举周期基于一个无可争议的概念，即总统及其政党希望连任。因此，他们会在任期初期吞下任何必要的经济药物，以便在下一次总统大选到来时经济能够蓬勃发展。</blockquote> As many have noted before, the historical data are only loosely consistent with this theory. The table below reports the year-by-year averages for the Dow since its creation in 1896 and since 1940. This latter year was chosen on the theory that presidential power grew enormously in the 1930s, thereby increasing a leader’s ability to ignite the economy.<blockquote>正如许多人之前指出的，历史数据与这一理论只有松散的一致性。下表报告了道琼斯指数自 1896 年创建以来和 1940 年以来的年平均值。之所以选择后一年，是因为总统权力在 20 世纪 30 年代大幅增长，从而增强了领导人点燃经济的能力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/431b2d2204c7d245f63f4b630476ae1b\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Though second years are the worst of the cycle, the difference between its average return and that of the other three years is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine. In fact, the only year of the four that jumps over this hurdle of statistical significance is the third year.<blockquote>尽管第二年是周期中最差的，但在统计学家确定模式是否真实时经常使用的 95% 置信水平下，其平均回报率与其他三年的平均回报率之间的差异并不显著。事实上，四年中唯一跨越这一统计意义障碍的是第三年。</blockquote> These results are based on fiscal years ending on Sep. 30. In focusing on fiscal years, I am following the lead of most presidential election cycle researchers. Had I chosen to focus on calendar years rather than fiscal years, the difference between second years and the other three years of the cycle would have been even less pronounced.<blockquote>这些结果基于截至 9 月 30 日的财年。在关注财政年度时，我追随了大多数总统选举周期研究人员的脚步。如果我选择关注日历年而不是财政年度，第二年和周期的其他三年之间的差异就不会那么明显了。</blockquote> Midterm election and stock prices<blockquote>中期选举与股价</blockquote> This would otherwise be the end of the story, but for another seasonal pattern that researchers have recently documented. It turns out that the six months prior to the midterm election is a particularly weak period for the stock market, while the six months after is particularly strong.<blockquote>否则这将是故事的结尾，但对于研究人员最近记录的另一个季节模式来说。事实证明，中期选举前的半年是股市特别疲软的时期，而之后的半年则特别强劲。</blockquote> This pattern was discovered by Kam Fong Chan, a professor of finance at the University of Western Australia, and Terry Marsh, an emeritus finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and CEO of Quantal International. Their study on the subject was published this summer in the Quarterly Journal of Economics.<blockquote>这种模式是由西澳大利亚大学金融学教授Kam Fong Chan和加州大学伯克利分校金融学名誉教授、Quantal International首席执行官Terry Marsh发现的。他们关于这个主题的研究发表在今年夏天的《经济学季刊》上。</blockquote> The researchers attribute the stock market’s pre-midterm weakness to uncertainty about the outcome of those elections. Similarly, post-midterm strength can be traced to the resolution of that uncertainty. Their explanation makes theoretical sense, because the stock market reacts poorly to uncertainty.<blockquote>研究人员将中期选举前股市的疲软归因于选举结果的不确定性。同样，中期后的强势可以追溯到这种不确定性的解决。他们的解释在理论上是有道理的，因为股市对不确定性的反应很差。</blockquote> Their theory has empirical support in the seasonal patterns of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index (EPU), which measures politically sourced economic uncertainty. Historically, the EPU has tended to rise significantly in the six months before mid-term elections and then fallen just as much in the six months thereafter.<blockquote>他们的理论在衡量政治来源的经济不确定性的经济政策不确定性指数（EPU）的季节性模式中有经验支持。从历史上看，EPU往往在中期选举前的六个月大幅上升，然后在此后的六个月中下降同样多。</blockquote> To the extent this pre- and post-midterm pattern persists, you wouldn’t look for stock market strength until next spring — halfway through the second year of the presidential election year cycle. In the meantime, the stock market could still exhibit weakness. But if it does, it won’t be because of where we are in the cycle.<blockquote>如果这种中期选举前后的模式持续下去，股市要到明年春天--总统大选年周期的第二年过半时才能走强。与此同时，股市仍有可能表现出疲软。但如果是这样，那也不是因为我们所处的周期。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why stocks could lose popularity as the market’s ‘presidential election cycle’ enters its second year<blockquote>为什么随着市场 “总统选举周期 ”进入第二年，股市可能会失去人气</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy stocks could lose popularity as the market’s ‘presidential election cycle’ enters its second year<blockquote>为什么随着市场 “总统选举周期 ”进入第二年，股市可能会失去人气</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-09-28 11:35\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Stock returns typically weaken in the second year of a U.S. president’s four-year term. Should investors be worried that the second year of the “presidential election cycle” is about to begin? Followers of the cycle answer “yes,” since second years of the cycle are the worst, on average, of a U.S. president’s four-year term.<blockquote>美国总统四年任期的第二年，股票回报率通常会走弱。投资者是否应该担心 “总统大选周期 ”的第二年即将开始？周期的追随者回答是 “是的”，因为周期的第二年平均是美国总统四年任期中最糟糕的时期。</blockquote> Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.21% was created in 1896, the Dow’s average price-only return in non-second years has been more than nine percentage points higher than in second years.<blockquote>自 1896 年道琼斯道琼斯工业平均指数（+0.21%）创立以来，道琼斯指数在非第二年的平均纯价格回报率比第二年高出 9 个百分点以上。</blockquote> This result is not statistically significant, however. There is such wide variability in year-to-year performance that the averages don’t tell us much. In more than half of the presidential election cycle’s second years since the Dow’s creation, the U.S. benchmark index actually rose. Furthermore, as the accompanying chart shows, the Dow has risen in each of the past four second years — up 13.1% on average.<blockquote>然而，这一结果在统计学上并不显著。每年的业绩差异如此之大，以至于平均值并不能告诉我们太多。自道琼斯指数成立以来，在总统选举周期的第二年有一半以上的时间里，美国基准指数实际上都在上涨。此外，正如随附的图表所示，道琼斯指数在过去四年中每年都在上涨——平均上涨13.1%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd92bdd871c0bf68559547fe96caf17\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"942\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> At a minimum, therefore, we need to dig deeper into the data before basing any investment decisions on supposed second-year presidential-term weakness.<blockquote>因此，在根据假定的第二年总统任期疲软做出任何投资决策之前，我们至少需要更深入地挖掘数据。</blockquote> History of the presidential election cycle<blockquote>总统选举周期的历史</blockquote> The presidential election cycle is based on the unobjectionable notion that presidents and their political parties want to get re-elected. They therefore will swallow any necessary economic medicine early in their terms in order for the economy to be roaring by the time the next presidential election comes around.<blockquote>总统选举周期基于一个无可争议的概念，即总统及其政党希望连任。因此，他们会在任期初期吞下任何必要的经济药物，以便在下一次总统大选到来时经济能够蓬勃发展。</blockquote> As many have noted before, the historical data are only loosely consistent with this theory. The table below reports the year-by-year averages for the Dow since its creation in 1896 and since 1940. This latter year was chosen on the theory that presidential power grew enormously in the 1930s, thereby increasing a leader’s ability to ignite the economy.<blockquote>正如许多人之前指出的，历史数据与这一理论只有松散的一致性。下表报告了道琼斯指数自 1896 年创建以来和 1940 年以来的年平均值。之所以选择后一年，是因为总统权力在 20 世纪 30 年代大幅增长，从而增强了领导人点燃经济的能力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/431b2d2204c7d245f63f4b630476ae1b\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Though second years are the worst of the cycle, the difference between its average return and that of the other three years is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine. In fact, the only year of the four that jumps over this hurdle of statistical significance is the third year.<blockquote>尽管第二年是周期中最差的，但在统计学家确定模式是否真实时经常使用的 95% 置信水平下，其平均回报率与其他三年的平均回报率之间的差异并不显著。事实上，四年中唯一跨越这一统计意义障碍的是第三年。</blockquote> These results are based on fiscal years ending on Sep. 30. In focusing on fiscal years, I am following the lead of most presidential election cycle researchers. Had I chosen to focus on calendar years rather than fiscal years, the difference between second years and the other three years of the cycle would have been even less pronounced.<blockquote>这些结果基于截至 9 月 30 日的财年。在关注财政年度时，我追随了大多数总统选举周期研究人员的脚步。如果我选择关注日历年而不是财政年度，第二年和周期的其他三年之间的差异就不会那么明显了。</blockquote> Midterm election and stock prices<blockquote>中期选举与股价</blockquote> This would otherwise be the end of the story, but for another seasonal pattern that researchers have recently documented. It turns out that the six months prior to the midterm election is a particularly weak period for the stock market, while the six months after is particularly strong.<blockquote>否则这将是故事的结尾，但对于研究人员最近记录的另一个季节模式来说。事实证明，中期选举前的半年是股市特别疲软的时期，而之后的半年则特别强劲。</blockquote> This pattern was discovered by Kam Fong Chan, a professor of finance at the University of Western Australia, and Terry Marsh, an emeritus finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and CEO of Quantal International. Their study on the subject was published this summer in the Quarterly Journal of Economics.<blockquote>这种模式是由西澳大利亚大学金融学教授Kam Fong Chan和加州大学伯克利分校金融学名誉教授、Quantal International首席执行官Terry Marsh发现的。他们关于这个主题的研究发表在今年夏天的《经济学季刊》上。</blockquote> The researchers attribute the stock market’s pre-midterm weakness to uncertainty about the outcome of those elections. Similarly, post-midterm strength can be traced to the resolution of that uncertainty. Their explanation makes theoretical sense, because the stock market reacts poorly to uncertainty.<blockquote>研究人员将中期选举前股市的疲软归因于选举结果的不确定性。同样，中期后的强势可以追溯到这种不确定性的解决。他们的解释在理论上是有道理的，因为股市对不确定性的反应很差。</blockquote> Their theory has empirical support in the seasonal patterns of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index (EPU), which measures politically sourced economic uncertainty. Historically, the EPU has tended to rise significantly in the six months before mid-term elections and then fallen just as much in the six months thereafter.<blockquote>他们的理论在衡量政治来源的经济不确定性的经济政策不确定性指数（EPU）的季节性模式中有经验支持。从历史上看，EPU往往在中期选举前的六个月大幅上升，然后在此后的六个月中下降同样多。</blockquote> To the extent this pre- and post-midterm pattern persists, you wouldn’t look for stock market strength until next spring — halfway through the second year of the presidential election year cycle. In the meantime, the stock market could still exhibit weakness. But if it does, it won’t be because of where we are in the cycle.<blockquote>如果这种中期选举前后的模式持续下去，股市要到明年春天--总统大选年周期的第二年过半时才能走强。与此同时，股市仍有可能表现出疲软。但如果是这样，那也不是因为我们所处的周期。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stocks-could-lose-popularity-as-the-markets-presidential-election-cycle-enters-its-second-year-11632776543?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stocks-could-lose-popularity-as-the-markets-presidential-election-cycle-enters-its-second-year-11632776543?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129085736","content_text":"Stock returns typically weaken in the second year of a U.S. president’s four-year term.\n\nShould investors be worried that the second year of the “presidential election cycle” is about to begin? Followers of the cycle answer “yes,” since second years of the cycle are the worst, on average, of a U.S. president’s four-year term.\nSince the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.21% was created in 1896, the Dow’s average price-only return in non-second years has been more than nine percentage points higher than in second years.\nThis result is not statistically significant, however. There is such wide variability in year-to-year performance that the averages don’t tell us much. In more than half of the presidential election cycle’s second years since the Dow’s creation, the U.S. benchmark index actually rose. Furthermore, as the accompanying chart shows, the Dow has risen in each of the past four second years — up 13.1% on average.\n\nAt a minimum, therefore, we need to dig deeper into the data before basing any investment decisions on supposed second-year presidential-term weakness.\nHistory of the presidential election cycle\nThe presidential election cycle is based on the unobjectionable notion that presidents and their political parties want to get re-elected. They therefore will swallow any necessary economic medicine early in their terms in order for the economy to be roaring by the time the next presidential election comes around.\nAs many have noted before, the historical data are only loosely consistent with this theory. The table below reports the year-by-year averages for the Dow since its creation in 1896 and since 1940. This latter year was chosen on the theory that presidential power grew enormously in the 1930s, thereby increasing a leader’s ability to ignite the economy.\n\nThough second years are the worst of the cycle, the difference between its average return and that of the other three years is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine. In fact, the only year of the four that jumps over this hurdle of statistical significance is the third year.\nThese results are based on fiscal years ending on Sep. 30. In focusing on fiscal years, I am following the lead of most presidential election cycle researchers. Had I chosen to focus on calendar years rather than fiscal years, the difference between second years and the other three years of the cycle would have been even less pronounced.\nMidterm election and stock prices\nThis would otherwise be the end of the story, but for another seasonal pattern that researchers have recently documented. It turns out that the six months prior to the midterm election is a particularly weak period for the stock market, while the six months after is particularly strong.\nThis pattern was discovered by Kam Fong Chan, a professor of finance at the University of Western Australia, and Terry Marsh, an emeritus finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and CEO of Quantal International. Their study on the subject was published this summer in the Quarterly Journal of Economics.\nThe researchers attribute the stock market’s pre-midterm weakness to uncertainty about the outcome of those elections. Similarly, post-midterm strength can be traced to the resolution of that uncertainty. Their explanation makes theoretical sense, because the stock market reacts poorly to uncertainty.\nTheir theory has empirical support in the seasonal patterns of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index (EPU), which measures politically sourced economic uncertainty. Historically, the EPU has tended to rise significantly in the six months before mid-term elections and then fallen just as much in the six months thereafter.\nTo the extent this pre- and post-midterm pattern persists, you wouldn’t look for stock market strength until next spring — halfway through the second year of the presidential election year cycle. In the meantime, the stock market could still exhibit weakness. But if it does, it won’t be because of where we are in the cycle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":322,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/866703351"}