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2021-09-30

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Jobs, Jobs Jobs: October's Focus Turns to Key Employment Data as Fed Waits in Wings<blockquote>工作，工作工作：美联储在翅膀上等待，10 月份的焦点转向关键就业数据</blockquote>

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That was the day Fed Chairman Jerome Powell helped light up the market by hinting that a “taper” could be closer than ever.<blockquote>对于美联储观察人士来说，9 月 22 日是一个 “尤里卡 ”时刻，可能有助于确定华尔街 10 月份的走向。就在这一天，美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示 “缩减规模 ”可能比以往任何时候都更近，从而点亮了市场。</blockquote> While the month ahead includes plenty of potentially market-moving events—including the start of earnings season, potential drama in Washington and China, and a first look at the government’s estimate for Q3 economic growth—the Fed remains the number one story.<blockquote>虽然未来一个月有很多潜在的影响市场的事件--包括财报季的开始、华盛顿和中国潜在的戏剧性事件，以及政府对第三季度经济增长的初步估计--但美联储仍然是头号新闻。</blockquote> Why this focus on the Fed and what sounds like the esoteric concept of the Fed potentially “tapering” its monetary stimulus? Because it’s arguably top of mind on Wall Street as we head into early October since it has to do with the cost of borrowing money. The Fed has at least started to talk a little bit more in timeframes, and any clarity we get from them as the month continues is probably going to be looked upon very favorably. Remember, uncertainty isn’t Wall Street’s friend. People tend to like clarity.<blockquote>为什么要把重点放在美联储身上？美联储可能 “缩减 ”货币刺激措施这一深奥的概念听起来又是什么？因为在进入 10 月初之际，这可以说是华尔街最关心的问题，因为这与借钱成本有关。美联储至少已经开始在时间框架内多谈一点，随着这个月的继续，我们从他们那里得到的任何澄清都可能会受到非常有利的看法。记住，不确定性不是华尔街的朋友。人们倾向于喜欢清晰。</blockquote> For the last year and a half, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and company have been snapping up $120 billion in bonds each month. It’s a strategy designed to keep borrowing costs low for consumers and help companies stay afloat in these difficult pandemic times.<blockquote>在过去一年半的时间里，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和他的公司每月抢购1200亿美元的债券。这一战略旨在降低消费者的借贷成本，并帮助企业在大流行病的困难时期生存下去。</blockquote> However, many investors have been waiting impatiently for the Fed to remove the economy’s training wheels and pull on some gloves to fight rising inflation. It could potentially do both by “tapering,” or trimming, the number of bonds it buys each month.<blockquote>然而，许多投资者一直在不耐烦地等待美联储卸下经济的训练轮，戴上手套应对不断上升的通胀。它有可能通过 “缩减 ”或削减每月购买的债券数量来做到这一点。</blockquote> A taper announcement “could come as soon as the next meeting” of the Fed in November, Powell said on Sept. 22, though he added that the timing will depend on the economy’s strong performance continuing in coming weeks. The key could end up being the September jobs report that is due for release by the U.S. Department of Labor on Oct. 8.<blockquote>鲍威尔9月22日表示，美联储“最早可能在11月的下次会议上”宣布缩减规模，但他补充说，缩减规模的时间将取决于未来几周经济的持续强劲表现。关键最终可能是美国即将发布的9月份就业报告。劳工部10月8日。</blockquote> It would take a “reasonably good” jobs report to meet the test of progress toward a taper, Powell said. “The test is all but met,” he added, and he doesn’t need to see a “very good” jobs report, just a decent one. Other Fed officials, he added, believe the test for a taper has already been met.<blockquote>鲍威尔说，需要一份 “相当不错 ”的就业报告才能经受住缩减就业进度的考验。“他补充说：”考验几乎通过了，他不需要看到一份 “非常好 ”的就业报告，只需要一份像样的报告。他补充说，其他美联储官员认为缩减规模的考验已经达到。</blockquote> September Jobs Report Front and Center at Start of Month<blockquote>月初 9 月份就业报告的焦点</blockquote> By specifically calling out the Oct. 8 jobs report, Powell put investors on notice that he and possibly others at the Fed are zeroing in on that data to help them decide their next steps on tapering. That’s very likely going to mean an intense focus on the report by just about anyone involved in the markets.<blockquote>鲍威尔特别提到了 10 月 8 日的就业报告，让投资者注意到，他和美联储的其他人可能正在关注这些数据，以帮助他们决定缩减规模的下一步措施。这很可能意味着几乎所有参与市场的人都会密切关注这份报告。</blockquote> It also puts a lot of focus on a single word and how to interpret it once the report comes out. Powell wants to see a “decent” September jobs report to help determine the timing of the taper announcement, but what’s the definition of&nbsp; “decent?”<blockquote>它还非常关注一个词，以及一旦报告出来如何解释它。鲍威尔希望看到一份 “体面 ”的 9 月份就业报告，以帮助确定宣布缩减规模的时机，但 “体面 ”的定义是什么？</blockquote> Job growth has averaged 750,000 a month over the last three months but came in below 300,000 in August. However, even 200,000 new jobs a month were considered the standard of excellence before the pandemic shut down and reopening.<blockquote>过去三个月，就业岗位平均每月增长75万个，但8月份降至30万个以下。然而，在疫情关闭和重新开放之前，即使是每月20万个新工作岗位也被认为是卓越的标准。</blockquote> What’s decent now might be in the eye of the beholder, but let’s imagine it would have to be at least in the ballpark of the 235,000 jobs created in September, and maybe higher than that. Only Powell really knows.<blockquote>在旁观者看来，现在什么是体面的，但让我们想象一下，它至少要在 9 月份创造的 23.5 万个就业岗位的范围内，甚至可能更高。只有鲍威尔真正知道。</blockquote> It’s a bit early to look for analyst estimates of September jobs growth, but they’re likely to start showing up during the first few days of October. We know that the Delta variant of Covid took a big bite out of August jobs growth, and Delta remained a major issue throughout September. But there were some green shoots in the August report that might help employment growth if they carried through into September.<blockquote>现在寻找分析师对 9 月份就业增长的预测还为时过早，但很可能会在 10 月份的头几天开始显现。我们知道，新冠疫情的德尔塔变异毒株严重影响了 8 月份的就业增长，而达美航空在整个 9 月份仍然是一个主要问题。但8月份的报告中有一些亮点，如果这些亮点持续到9月份，可能会有助于就业增长。</blockquote> The hospitality sector took a big jobs hit in August as restaurants, hotels, airlines, casinos, and other “reopening” businesses slowed hiring due in part to the Delta variant. At the same time, the transportation, warehousing, and manufacturing sectors saw pretty “decent” jobs growth, perhaps a sign of increased demand for products across the economy. If these trends continued in September, it could go part of the way toward getting jobs growth to levels the Fed wants to see.<blockquote>由于德尔塔变异毒株，餐馆、酒店、航空公司、赌场和其他 “重新开业 ”企业的招聘速度放缓，酒店业在 8 月份受到了巨大的打击。与此同时，运输、仓储和制造业的就业增长相当 “体面 ”，这或许是整个经济对产品需求增加的一个迹象。如果这些趋势在9月份继续下去，这可能会在一定程度上推动就业增长达到美联储希望看到的水平。</blockquote> “Cyclical” Sectors Get Early Boost on Taper Hopes<blockquote>“周期性”行业因缩减规模的希望而获得早期提振</blockquote> Immediately after Powell spoke on Sept. 22, the best-performing sectors were Financials and Energy. That’s not too surprising, considering they’re known as “cyclical” sectors that tend to do better when the economy is growing. This trend could flow into early October, barring any major negative news, while so-called “defensive” sectors like Utilities and Staples might find some pressure from the prospect of rising bond yields.<blockquote>鲍威尔9月22日发表讲话后，表现最好的行业是金融和能源。这并不奇怪，因为它们被称为 “周期性 ”行业，在经济增长时往往表现更好。除非出现任何重大负面消息，否则这一趋势可能会持续到 10 月初，而公用事业和主食等所谓的 “防御性 ”行业可能会受到债券收益率上升前景的一些压力。</blockquote> Although the Fed is probably a long way from actually raising rates, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield flirted with three-month highs near 1.5% in the days after Powell spoke, and sometimes yields in the market can be a harbinger of what traders think the Fed is ultimately planning to do. The most recent set of Fed projections basically showed a 50/50 chance of a first-rate hike sometime next year.<blockquote>尽管美联储距离实际加息可能还有很长的路要走，但在鲍威尔讲话后的几天里，基准 10 年期国债收益率接近 1.5% 的三个月高点，有时市场上的收益率可以预示交易员认为美联储最终计划做什么。美联储最新的一组预测基本上显示，明年某个时候首次加息的可能性为 50/50。</blockquote> At this point, it feels like the market might actually welcome the Fed getting more hawkish because the thing people have arguably worried most about lately is inflation. Tapering and eventually rate hikes are tools the Fed can use to combat rising prices, although Powell thinks the inflation we’re seeing is temporary and caused mainly by supply bottlenecks created as the economy reopens. The September consumer and producer price index reports due in October are likely to get very close attention when they hit the tape.<blockquote>在这一点上，市场似乎实际上可能会欢迎美联储变得更加鹰派，因为人们最近最担心的事情可以说是通胀。缩减规模并最终加息是美联储可以用来应对物价上涨的工具，尽管鲍威尔认为我们看到的通货膨胀是暂时的，主要是由经济重新开放造成的供应瓶颈造成的。将于10月份发布的9月份消费者和生产者价格指数报告可能会受到密切关注。</blockquote> If the rise in yields continues into early October, look for bank shares to possibly benefit. A big part of their profitability depends on the rate picture, with higher rates generally helping their margins. The small-cap&nbsp;Russell 2000 Index&nbsp;(RUT) has a heavy weighting toward banks, so if it’s doing well in early October, it might be a signal that people expect a November taper.<blockquote>如果收益率上升持续到 10 月初，请关注银行股可能受益。他们的盈利能力很大程度上取决于利率情况，较高的利率通常有助于提高他们的利润率。小盘股罗素2000指数(RUT) 对银行有很大的权重，因此如果它在 10 月初表现良好，这可能是人们预期 11 月份会缩减规模的信号。</blockquote> Small-cap strength—if we see it—also could mean there’s more optimism about the domestic economy. These smaller companies tend to do most of their business here in the homeland, so they’re often a good barometer of U.S economic health.<blockquote>小盘股的走强--如果我们看到的话--也可能意味着人们对国内经济更加乐观。这些规模较小的公司往往在美国本土开展大部分业务，因此它们往往是美国经济健康状况的一个很好的晴雨表。</blockquote> FIGURE 1:WRAPPING UP ANOTHER QUARTER.&nbsp;This year-to-date chart of the&nbsp;Nasdaq 100&nbsp;(NDX—candlestick), the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;(SPX—purple line), and the&nbsp;Russell 2000 Index&nbsp;(RUT—blue line) show the large-cap indices outrunning the small cap RUT in recent weeks after losing ground to it earlier in the year. The “mega-cap” Tech and Communication Services sectors have pulled up the SPX and NDX recently, but now could face pressure from higher bond yields. Data Source: FTSE Russell, S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices, Nasdaq. Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform.&nbsp;For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.<blockquote>图1：又结束了一个季度。今年迄今的图表纳斯达克100（NDX—烛台），标普500指数（SPX-紫线），以及罗素2000指数（RUT—蓝线）显示大型股指数在今年早些时候输给小型股RUT后，最近几周的表现超过了小型股RUT。“巨型 ”科技和通信服务板块最近拉高了 SPX 和 NDX 指数，但现在可能面临债券收益率上升的压力。数据来源：富时罗素、标准普尔道琼斯指数、纳斯达克。图表来源：The thinkorswim®平台。仅用于说明目的。过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。</blockquote> Riding into Earnings<blockquote>盈利</blockquote> There’s other stuff going on in October beyond the Fed and the baseball playoffs (go White Sox!). October is the start of Q3 earnings season, beginning with the big banks in the middle of the month and followed by all the “FAANG” stocks and their tech cousin&nbsp;Microsoft&nbsp;The major Wall Street banks like&nbsp;JP Morgan Chase&nbsp;and&nbsp;Goldman Sachs&nbsp;have had impressive earnings performances so far this year and continue to find ways to improve profit despite a lot of headwinds. If the Fed is actually getting serious about a more hawkish policy, rising yields could become another arrow in the banks’ quiver, so to speak. As always, it will be important to listen to what the CEOs in both Financials and other sectors have to say about the economy, particularly any impact from supply chain issues and the Delta variant of Covid.<blockquote>除了美联储和棒球季后赛之外，十月份还有其他事情发生（白袜队加油!）。十月是第三季度财报季的开始，首先是月中的大银行，然后是所有 “FAANG ”股票及其科技股微软华尔街主要银行喜欢摩根大通和高盛今年迄今为止，我们的盈利表现令人印象深刻，尽管面临诸多阻力，我们仍在继续寻找提高利润的方法。如果美联储真的在认真考虑采取更鹰派的政策，那么可以说，收益率上升可能会成为银行的另一支箭矢。一如既往，听取金融和其他行业首席执行官对经济的看法非常重要，特别是供应链问题和新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株的任何影响。</blockquote> Early analyst estimates for Q3 S&amp;P 500 earnings growth have it continuing at historically high levels, but well below Q2’s meteoric performance. Research firm FactSet now predicts 27.6% earnings growth for Q3, up from its prediction of 24.2% on June 30. It’s always good to see estimates gaining ground, because it likely reflects positive guidance from companies. Also, in Q2, more than 85% of S&amp;P 500 companies exceeded analysts’ earnings estimates, FactSet said, so there may be plenty of room for the 27.6% number to rise from here if Q3 is anything like Q2.<blockquote>分析师对标普500第三季度盈利增长的早期估计显示，该公司将继续处于历史高位，但远低于第二季度的迅猛表现。研究公司 FactSet 目前预测第三季度盈利增长 27.6%，高于 6 月 30 日预测的 24.2%。看到估值上升总是好的，因为这很可能反映了公司的积极指导。FactSet 还表示，在第二季度，超过 85% 的标普500公司的盈利超过了分析师的预期，因此，如果第三季度与第二季度类似，那么 27.6% 的数字可能还有很大的上升空间。</blockquote> China, Debt Ceiling Seen as Possible Pain Points<blockquote>中国，债务上限被视为可能的痛点</blockquote> China could also remain a focus after the Evergrande scare. Late in September, the beleaguered Chinese property developer said it would start making payments on some of its debt. However, Beijing is sending out signals that it might let the real estate giant fail on some of its obligations, namely those held by investors overseas.<blockquote>恒大恐慌之后，中国也可能仍然是一个焦点。9月下旬，这家陷入困境的中国房地产开发商表示，将开始偿还部分债务。然而，北京方面正在发出信号，表明它可能会让这家房地产巨头违约其部分义务，即海外投资者持有的义务。</blockquote> It’s interesting how the Evergrande worries kind of faded into the background a bit after slamming Wall Street on Sept. 20 when a selloff took stocks down sharply for a single day. However, don’t dismiss the Evergrande issue, even if most stock indexes bounced back later that week.&nbsp;For now, it seems to be in the background, but these stories have a habit of coming back.<blockquote>有趣的是，在 9 月 20 日华尔街遭遇抛售导致股市大幅下跌一天后，恒大的担忧就逐渐淡出了背景。不过，即使当周晚些时候大多数股指都出现了反弹，也不要对恒大问题不屑一顾。目前，恒大问题似乎已经退居幕后，但这些故事总有卷土重来的习惯。</blockquote> Another story closer to home that could bite the market in October is the battle over the debt ceiling in Washington, D.C. Several past Treasury secretaries as well as the current one, Janet Yellen, have warned about the danger to the economy if this issue isn’t put to bed soon. The U.S. nearly defaulted on its debt back in 2011 during a similar congressional fight, and the stock market struggled through that crisis. More struggles can’t be ruled out if this continues, but for now, it feels like investors are basically assuming the issue gets resolved amid continued partisan bickering without too much turbulence. We shall see.<blockquote>另一个可能在10月份影响市场的离家近的故事是华盛顿特区的债务上限之争。几位前任财政部长以及现任财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）都曾警告说，如果不尽快解决这个问题，将对经济造成危险。早在 2011 年，在类似的国会斗争中，美国就差点债务违约，股市也在那场危机中苦苦挣扎。如果这种情况继续下去，不排除会有更多的斗争，但就目前而言，投资者基本上认为这个问题会在持续的党派争吵中得到解决，而不会出现太大的动荡。我们拭目以待。</blockquote> Besides jobs and inflation data, another key government report to look for in October is the government’s first estimate for Q3 economic growth. The gross domestic product (GDP) report, due Oct. 28, will be the first solid report investors see on how the overall economy reacted to the Delta variant that apparently helped bring down jobs growth and consumer sentiment in August and early September.<blockquote>除了就业和通胀数据外，10 月份的另一份重要政府报告是政府对第三季度经济增长的首次估计。将于 10 月 28 日发布的国内生产总值 (GDP) 报告将是投资者看到的第一份关于整体经济如何应对德尔塔变异毒株的可靠报告，该报告显然有助于降低 8 月和 9 月初的就业增长和消费者信心。</blockquote> The Fed now projects GDP to rise just 5.9% this year, compared to its 7% forecast in June. This may reflect the Delta variant’s impact. Having said that, the Fed now projects 2023 growth at 3.8%, which is up from its previous 3.3% estimate. The Fed’s GDP projection then slips in 2023 to 2.5%, but that is up slightly from the Fed’s previous estimate.<blockquote>美联储目前预计今年GDP仅增长5.9%，而6月份的预测为7%。这可能反映了德尔塔变异毒株的影响。话虽如此，美联储目前预计 2023 年经济增长率为 3.8%，高于之前预期的 3.3%。美联储对 2023 年 GDP 的预测随后下滑至 2.5%，但这比美联储之前的估计略有上升。</blockquote> Even GDP growth of 5.9% and 3.8% would look pretty impressive considering the under 3% growth people have gotten used to pretty much since the 2008 recession. October won’t ultimately tell the tale on where GDP goes from here, but it could be a good harbinger of how the markets might behave heading into year-end, especially if we get more clarity from the Fed.<blockquote>考虑到自2008年衰退以来人们已经习惯了低于3%的增长率，即使5.9%和3.8%的GDP增长率看起来也相当令人印象深刻。10 月份并不能最终说明 GDP 的走向，但它可能是一个很好的预兆，预示着市场在年底的表现，尤其是如果我们从美联储那里得到更多的澄清的话。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jobs, Jobs Jobs: October's Focus Turns to Key Employment Data as Fed Waits in Wings<blockquote>工作，工作 工作：美联储在翅膀上等待，10 月份的焦点转向关键就业数据</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJobs, Jobs Jobs: October's Focus Turns to Key Employment Data as Fed Waits in Wings<blockquote>工作，工作 工作：美联储在翅膀上等待，10 月份的焦点转向关键就业数据</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\nBenzinga \n2021-09-30 09:00\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nFor Fed watchers, Sept. 22 was a “eureka” moment that could help determine where Wall Street heads in October. That was the day Fed Chairman Jerome Powell helped light up the market by hinting that a “taper” could be closer than ever.<blockquote>对于美联储观察人士来说，9 月 22 日是一个 “尤里卡 ”时刻，可能有助于确定华尔街 10 月份的走向。就在这一天，美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示 “缩减规模 ”可能比以往任何时候都更近，从而点亮了市场。</blockquote> While the month ahead includes plenty of potentially market-moving events—including the start of earnings season, potential drama in Washington and China, and a first look at the government’s estimate for Q3 economic growth—the Fed remains the number one story.<blockquote>虽然未来一个月有很多潜在的影响市场的事件--包括财报季的开始、华盛顿和中国潜在的戏剧性事件，以及政府对第三季度经济增长的初步估计--但美联储仍然是头号新闻。</blockquote> Why this focus on the Fed and what sounds like the esoteric concept of the Fed potentially “tapering” its monetary stimulus? Because it’s arguably top of mind on Wall Street as we head into early October since it has to do with the cost of borrowing money. The Fed has at least started to talk a little bit more in timeframes, and any clarity we get from them as the month continues is probably going to be looked upon very favorably. Remember, uncertainty isn’t Wall Street’s friend. People tend to like clarity.<blockquote>为什么要把重点放在美联储身上？美联储可能 “缩减 ”货币刺激措施这一深奥的概念听起来又是什么？因为在进入 10 月初之际，这可以说是华尔街最关心的问题，因为这与借钱成本有关。美联储至少已经开始在时间框架内多谈一点，随着这个月的继续，我们从他们那里得到的任何澄清都可能会受到非常有利的看法。记住，不确定性不是华尔街的朋友。人们倾向于喜欢清晰。</blockquote> For the last year and a half, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and company have been snapping up $120 billion in bonds each month. It’s a strategy designed to keep borrowing costs low for consumers and help companies stay afloat in these difficult pandemic times.<blockquote>在过去一年半的时间里，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和他的公司每月抢购1200亿美元的债券。这一战略旨在降低消费者的借贷成本，并帮助企业在大流行病的困难时期生存下去。</blockquote> However, many investors have been waiting impatiently for the Fed to remove the economy’s training wheels and pull on some gloves to fight rising inflation. It could potentially do both by “tapering,” or trimming, the number of bonds it buys each month.<blockquote>然而，许多投资者一直在不耐烦地等待美联储卸下经济的训练轮，戴上手套应对不断上升的通胀。它有可能通过 “缩减 ”或削减每月购买的债券数量来做到这一点。</blockquote> A taper announcement “could come as soon as the next meeting” of the Fed in November, Powell said on Sept. 22, though he added that the timing will depend on the economy’s strong performance continuing in coming weeks. The key could end up being the September jobs report that is due for release by the U.S. Department of Labor on Oct. 8.<blockquote>鲍威尔9月22日表示，美联储“最早可能在11月的下次会议上”宣布缩减规模，但他补充说，缩减规模的时间将取决于未来几周经济的持续强劲表现。关键最终可能是美国即将发布的9月份就业报告。劳工部10月8日。</blockquote> It would take a “reasonably good” jobs report to meet the test of progress toward a taper, Powell said. “The test is all but met,” he added, and he doesn’t need to see a “very good” jobs report, just a decent one. Other Fed officials, he added, believe the test for a taper has already been met.<blockquote>鲍威尔说，需要一份 “相当不错 ”的就业报告才能经受住缩减就业进度的考验。“他补充说：”考验几乎通过了，他不需要看到一份 “非常好 ”的就业报告，只需要一份像样的报告。他补充说，其他美联储官员认为缩减规模的考验已经达到。</blockquote> September Jobs Report Front and Center at Start of Month<blockquote>月初 9 月份就业报告的焦点</blockquote> By specifically calling out the Oct. 8 jobs report, Powell put investors on notice that he and possibly others at the Fed are zeroing in on that data to help them decide their next steps on tapering. That’s very likely going to mean an intense focus on the report by just about anyone involved in the markets.<blockquote>鲍威尔特别提到了 10 月 8 日的就业报告，让投资者注意到，他和美联储的其他人可能正在关注这些数据，以帮助他们决定缩减规模的下一步措施。这很可能意味着几乎所有参与市场的人都会密切关注这份报告。</blockquote> It also puts a lot of focus on a single word and how to interpret it once the report comes out. Powell wants to see a “decent” September jobs report to help determine the timing of the taper announcement, but what’s the definition of&nbsp; “decent?”<blockquote>它还非常关注一个词，以及一旦报告出来如何解释它。鲍威尔希望看到一份 “体面 ”的 9 月份就业报告，以帮助确定宣布缩减规模的时机，但 “体面 ”的定义是什么？</blockquote> Job growth has averaged 750,000 a month over the last three months but came in below 300,000 in August. However, even 200,000 new jobs a month were considered the standard of excellence before the pandemic shut down and reopening.<blockquote>过去三个月，就业岗位平均每月增长75万个，但8月份降至30万个以下。然而，在疫情关闭和重新开放之前，即使是每月20万个新工作岗位也被认为是卓越的标准。</blockquote> What’s decent now might be in the eye of the beholder, but let’s imagine it would have to be at least in the ballpark of the 235,000 jobs created in September, and maybe higher than that. Only Powell really knows.<blockquote>在旁观者看来，现在什么是体面的，但让我们想象一下，它至少要在 9 月份创造的 23.5 万个就业岗位的范围内，甚至可能更高。只有鲍威尔真正知道。</blockquote> It’s a bit early to look for analyst estimates of September jobs growth, but they’re likely to start showing up during the first few days of October. We know that the Delta variant of Covid took a big bite out of August jobs growth, and Delta remained a major issue throughout September. But there were some green shoots in the August report that might help employment growth if they carried through into September.<blockquote>现在寻找分析师对 9 月份就业增长的预测还为时过早，但很可能会在 10 月份的头几天开始显现。我们知道，新冠疫情的德尔塔变异毒株严重影响了 8 月份的就业增长，而达美航空在整个 9 月份仍然是一个主要问题。但8月份的报告中有一些亮点，如果这些亮点持续到9月份，可能会有助于就业增长。</blockquote> The hospitality sector took a big jobs hit in August as restaurants, hotels, airlines, casinos, and other “reopening” businesses slowed hiring due in part to the Delta variant. At the same time, the transportation, warehousing, and manufacturing sectors saw pretty “decent” jobs growth, perhaps a sign of increased demand for products across the economy. If these trends continued in September, it could go part of the way toward getting jobs growth to levels the Fed wants to see.<blockquote>由于德尔塔变异毒株，餐馆、酒店、航空公司、赌场和其他 “重新开业 ”企业的招聘速度放缓，酒店业在 8 月份受到了巨大的打击。与此同时，运输、仓储和制造业的就业增长相当 “体面 ”，这或许是整个经济对产品需求增加的一个迹象。如果这些趋势在9月份继续下去，这可能会在一定程度上推动就业增长达到美联储希望看到的水平。</blockquote> “Cyclical” Sectors Get Early Boost on Taper Hopes<blockquote>“周期性”行业因缩减规模的希望而获得早期提振</blockquote> Immediately after Powell spoke on Sept. 22, the best-performing sectors were Financials and Energy. That’s not too surprising, considering they’re known as “cyclical” sectors that tend to do better when the economy is growing. This trend could flow into early October, barring any major negative news, while so-called “defensive” sectors like Utilities and Staples might find some pressure from the prospect of rising bond yields.<blockquote>鲍威尔9月22日发表讲话后，表现最好的行业是金融和能源。这并不奇怪，因为它们被称为 “周期性 ”行业，在经济增长时往往表现更好。除非出现任何重大负面消息，否则这一趋势可能会持续到 10 月初，而公用事业和主食等所谓的 “防御性 ”行业可能会受到债券收益率上升前景的一些压力。</blockquote> Although the Fed is probably a long way from actually raising rates, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield flirted with three-month highs near 1.5% in the days after Powell spoke, and sometimes yields in the market can be a harbinger of what traders think the Fed is ultimately planning to do. The most recent set of Fed projections basically showed a 50/50 chance of a first-rate hike sometime next year.<blockquote>尽管美联储距离实际加息可能还有很长的路要走，但在鲍威尔讲话后的几天里，基准 10 年期国债收益率接近 1.5% 的三个月高点，有时市场上的收益率可以预示交易员认为美联储最终计划做什么。美联储最新的一组预测基本上显示，明年某个时候首次加息的可能性为 50/50。</blockquote> At this point, it feels like the market might actually welcome the Fed getting more hawkish because the thing people have arguably worried most about lately is inflation. Tapering and eventually rate hikes are tools the Fed can use to combat rising prices, although Powell thinks the inflation we’re seeing is temporary and caused mainly by supply bottlenecks created as the economy reopens. The September consumer and producer price index reports due in October are likely to get very close attention when they hit the tape.<blockquote>在这一点上，市场似乎实际上可能会欢迎美联储变得更加鹰派，因为人们最近最担心的事情可以说是通胀。缩减规模并最终加息是美联储可以用来应对物价上涨的工具，尽管鲍威尔认为我们看到的通货膨胀是暂时的，主要是由经济重新开放造成的供应瓶颈造成的。将于10月份发布的9月份消费者和生产者价格指数报告可能会受到密切关注。</blockquote> If the rise in yields continues into early October, look for bank shares to possibly benefit. A big part of their profitability depends on the rate picture, with higher rates generally helping their margins. The small-cap&nbsp;Russell 2000 Index&nbsp;(RUT) has a heavy weighting toward banks, so if it’s doing well in early October, it might be a signal that people expect a November taper.<blockquote>如果收益率上升持续到 10 月初，请关注银行股可能受益。他们的盈利能力很大程度上取决于利率情况，较高的利率通常有助于提高他们的利润率。小盘股罗素2000指数(RUT) 对银行有很大的权重，因此如果它在 10 月初表现良好，这可能是人们预期 11 月份会缩减规模的信号。</blockquote> Small-cap strength—if we see it—also could mean there’s more optimism about the domestic economy. These smaller companies tend to do most of their business here in the homeland, so they’re often a good barometer of U.S economic health.<blockquote>小盘股的走强--如果我们看到的话--也可能意味着人们对国内经济更加乐观。这些规模较小的公司往往在美国本土开展大部分业务，因此它们往往是美国经济健康状况的一个很好的晴雨表。</blockquote> FIGURE 1:WRAPPING UP ANOTHER QUARTER.&nbsp;This year-to-date chart of the&nbsp;Nasdaq 100&nbsp;(NDX—candlestick), the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;(SPX—purple line), and the&nbsp;Russell 2000 Index&nbsp;(RUT—blue line) show the large-cap indices outrunning the small cap RUT in recent weeks after losing ground to it earlier in the year. The “mega-cap” Tech and Communication Services sectors have pulled up the SPX and NDX recently, but now could face pressure from higher bond yields. Data Source: FTSE Russell, S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices, Nasdaq. Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform.&nbsp;For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.<blockquote>图1：又结束了一个季度。今年迄今的图表纳斯达克100（NDX—烛台），标普500指数（SPX-紫线），以及罗素2000指数（RUT—蓝线）显示大型股指数在今年早些时候输给小型股RUT后，最近几周的表现超过了小型股RUT。“巨型 ”科技和通信服务板块最近拉高了 SPX 和 NDX 指数，但现在可能面临债券收益率上升的压力。数据来源：富时罗素、标准普尔道琼斯指数、纳斯达克。图表来源：The thinkorswim®平台。仅用于说明目的。过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。</blockquote> Riding into Earnings<blockquote>盈利</blockquote> There’s other stuff going on in October beyond the Fed and the baseball playoffs (go White Sox!). October is the start of Q3 earnings season, beginning with the big banks in the middle of the month and followed by all the “FAANG” stocks and their tech cousin&nbsp;Microsoft&nbsp;The major Wall Street banks like&nbsp;JP Morgan Chase&nbsp;and&nbsp;Goldman Sachs&nbsp;have had impressive earnings performances so far this year and continue to find ways to improve profit despite a lot of headwinds. If the Fed is actually getting serious about a more hawkish policy, rising yields could become another arrow in the banks’ quiver, so to speak. As always, it will be important to listen to what the CEOs in both Financials and other sectors have to say about the economy, particularly any impact from supply chain issues and the Delta variant of Covid.<blockquote>除了美联储和棒球季后赛之外，十月份还有其他事情发生（白袜队加油!）。十月是第三季度财报季的开始，首先是月中的大银行，然后是所有 “FAANG ”股票及其科技股微软华尔街主要银行喜欢摩根大通和高盛今年迄今为止，我们的盈利表现令人印象深刻，尽管面临诸多阻力，我们仍在继续寻找提高利润的方法。如果美联储真的在认真考虑采取更鹰派的政策，那么可以说，收益率上升可能会成为银行的另一支箭矢。一如既往，听取金融和其他行业首席执行官对经济的看法非常重要，特别是供应链问题和新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株的任何影响。</blockquote> Early analyst estimates for Q3 S&amp;P 500 earnings growth have it continuing at historically high levels, but well below Q2’s meteoric performance. Research firm FactSet now predicts 27.6% earnings growth for Q3, up from its prediction of 24.2% on June 30. It’s always good to see estimates gaining ground, because it likely reflects positive guidance from companies. Also, in Q2, more than 85% of S&amp;P 500 companies exceeded analysts’ earnings estimates, FactSet said, so there may be plenty of room for the 27.6% number to rise from here if Q3 is anything like Q2.<blockquote>分析师对标普500第三季度盈利增长的早期估计显示，该公司将继续处于历史高位，但远低于第二季度的迅猛表现。研究公司 FactSet 目前预测第三季度盈利增长 27.6%，高于 6 月 30 日预测的 24.2%。看到估值上升总是好的，因为这很可能反映了公司的积极指导。FactSet 还表示，在第二季度，超过 85% 的标普500公司的盈利超过了分析师的预期，因此，如果第三季度与第二季度类似，那么 27.6% 的数字可能还有很大的上升空间。</blockquote> China, Debt Ceiling Seen as Possible Pain Points<blockquote>中国，债务上限被视为可能的痛点</blockquote> China could also remain a focus after the Evergrande scare. Late in September, the beleaguered Chinese property developer said it would start making payments on some of its debt. However, Beijing is sending out signals that it might let the real estate giant fail on some of its obligations, namely those held by investors overseas.<blockquote>恒大恐慌之后，中国也可能仍然是一个焦点。9月下旬，这家陷入困境的中国房地产开发商表示，将开始偿还部分债务。然而，北京方面正在发出信号，表明它可能会让这家房地产巨头违约其部分义务，即海外投资者持有的义务。</blockquote> It’s interesting how the Evergrande worries kind of faded into the background a bit after slamming Wall Street on Sept. 20 when a selloff took stocks down sharply for a single day. However, don’t dismiss the Evergrande issue, even if most stock indexes bounced back later that week.&nbsp;For now, it seems to be in the background, but these stories have a habit of coming back.<blockquote>有趣的是，在 9 月 20 日华尔街遭遇抛售导致股市大幅下跌一天后，恒大的担忧就逐渐淡出了背景。不过，即使当周晚些时候大多数股指都出现了反弹，也不要对恒大问题不屑一顾。目前，恒大问题似乎已经退居幕后，但这些故事总有卷土重来的习惯。</blockquote> Another story closer to home that could bite the market in October is the battle over the debt ceiling in Washington, D.C. Several past Treasury secretaries as well as the current one, Janet Yellen, have warned about the danger to the economy if this issue isn’t put to bed soon. The U.S. nearly defaulted on its debt back in 2011 during a similar congressional fight, and the stock market struggled through that crisis. More struggles can’t be ruled out if this continues, but for now, it feels like investors are basically assuming the issue gets resolved amid continued partisan bickering without too much turbulence. We shall see.<blockquote>另一个可能在10月份影响市场的离家近的故事是华盛顿特区的债务上限之争。几位前任财政部长以及现任财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）都曾警告说，如果不尽快解决这个问题，将对经济造成危险。早在 2011 年，在类似的国会斗争中，美国就差点债务违约，股市也在那场危机中苦苦挣扎。如果这种情况继续下去，不排除会有更多的斗争，但就目前而言，投资者基本上认为这个问题会在持续的党派争吵中得到解决，而不会出现太大的动荡。我们拭目以待。</blockquote> Besides jobs and inflation data, another key government report to look for in October is the government’s first estimate for Q3 economic growth. The gross domestic product (GDP) report, due Oct. 28, will be the first solid report investors see on how the overall economy reacted to the Delta variant that apparently helped bring down jobs growth and consumer sentiment in August and early September.<blockquote>除了就业和通胀数据外，10 月份的另一份重要政府报告是政府对第三季度经济增长的首次估计。将于 10 月 28 日发布的国内生产总值 (GDP) 报告将是投资者看到的第一份关于整体经济如何应对德尔塔变异毒株的可靠报告，该报告显然有助于降低 8 月和 9 月初的就业增长和消费者信心。</blockquote> The Fed now projects GDP to rise just 5.9% this year, compared to its 7% forecast in June. This may reflect the Delta variant’s impact. Having said that, the Fed now projects 2023 growth at 3.8%, which is up from its previous 3.3% estimate. The Fed’s GDP projection then slips in 2023 to 2.5%, but that is up slightly from the Fed’s previous estimate.<blockquote>美联储目前预计今年GDP仅增长5.9%，而6月份的预测为7%。这可能反映了德尔塔变异毒株的影响。话虽如此，美联储目前预计 2023 年经济增长率为 3.8%，高于之前预期的 3.3%。美联储对 2023 年 GDP 的预测随后下滑至 2.5%，但这比美联储之前的估计略有上升。</blockquote> Even GDP growth of 5.9% and 3.8% would look pretty impressive considering the under 3% growth people have gotten used to pretty much since the 2008 recession. October won’t ultimately tell the tale on where GDP goes from here, but it could be a good harbinger of how the markets might behave heading into year-end, especially if we get more clarity from the Fed.<blockquote>考虑到自2008年衰退以来人们已经习惯了低于3%的增长率，即使5.9%和3.8%的GDP增长率看起来也相当令人印象深刻。10 月份并不能最终说明 GDP 的走向，但它可能是一个很好的预兆，预示着市场在年底的表现，尤其是如果我们从美联储那里得到更多的澄清的话。</blockquote>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182846518","content_text":"For Fed watchers, Sept. 22 was a “eureka” moment that could help determine where Wall Street heads in October. That was the day Fed Chairman Jerome Powell helped light up the market by hinting that a “taper” could be closer than ever.\nWhile the month ahead includes plenty of potentially market-moving events—including the start of earnings season, potential drama in Washington and China, and a first look at the government’s estimate for Q3 economic growth—the Fed remains the number one story.\nWhy this focus on the Fed and what sounds like the esoteric concept of the Fed potentially “tapering” its monetary stimulus? Because it’s arguably top of mind on Wall Street as we head into early October since it has to do with the cost of borrowing money. The Fed has at least started to talk a little bit more in timeframes, and any clarity we get from them as the month continues is probably going to be looked upon very favorably. Remember, uncertainty isn’t Wall Street’s friend. People tend to like clarity.\nFor the last year and a half, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and company have been snapping up $120 billion in bonds each month. It’s a strategy designed to keep borrowing costs low for consumers and help companies stay afloat in these difficult pandemic times.\nHowever, many investors have been waiting impatiently for the Fed to remove the economy’s training wheels and pull on some gloves to fight rising inflation. It could potentially do both by “tapering,” or trimming, the number of bonds it buys each month.\nA taper announcement “could come as soon as the next meeting” of the Fed in November, Powell said on Sept. 22, though he added that the timing will depend on the economy’s strong performance continuing in coming weeks. The key could end up being the September jobs report that is due for release by the U.S. Department of Labor on Oct. 8.\nIt would take a “reasonably good” jobs report to meet the test of progress toward a taper, Powell said. “The test is all but met,” he added, and he doesn’t need to see a “very good” jobs report, just a decent one. Other Fed officials, he added, believe the test for a taper has already been met.\nSeptember Jobs Report Front and Center at Start of Month\nBy specifically calling out the Oct. 8 jobs report, Powell put investors on notice that he and possibly others at the Fed are zeroing in on that data to help them decide their next steps on tapering. That’s very likely going to mean an intense focus on the report by just about anyone involved in the markets.\nIt also puts a lot of focus on a single word and how to interpret it once the report comes out. Powell wants to see a “decent” September jobs report to help determine the timing of the taper announcement, but what’s the definition of  “decent?”\nJob growth has averaged 750,000 a month over the last three months but came in below 300,000 in August. However, even 200,000 new jobs a month were considered the standard of excellence before the pandemic shut down and reopening.\nWhat’s decent now might be in the eye of the beholder, but let’s imagine it would have to be at least in the ballpark of the 235,000 jobs created in September, and maybe higher than that. Only Powell really knows.\nIt’s a bit early to look for analyst estimates of September jobs growth, but they’re likely to start showing up during the first few days of October. We know that the Delta variant of Covid took a big bite out of August jobs growth, and Delta remained a major issue throughout September. But there were some green shoots in the August report that might help employment growth if they carried through into September.\nThe hospitality sector took a big jobs hit in August as restaurants, hotels, airlines, casinos, and other “reopening” businesses slowed hiring due in part to the Delta variant. At the same time, the transportation, warehousing, and manufacturing sectors saw pretty “decent” jobs growth, perhaps a sign of increased demand for products across the economy. If these trends continued in September, it could go part of the way toward getting jobs growth to levels the Fed wants to see.\n“Cyclical” Sectors Get Early Boost on Taper Hopes\nImmediately after Powell spoke on Sept. 22, the best-performing sectors were Financials and Energy. That’s not too surprising, considering they’re known as “cyclical” sectors that tend to do better when the economy is growing. This trend could flow into early October, barring any major negative news, while so-called “defensive” sectors like Utilities and Staples might find some pressure from the prospect of rising bond yields.\nAlthough the Fed is probably a long way from actually raising rates, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield flirted with three-month highs near 1.5% in the days after Powell spoke, and sometimes yields in the market can be a harbinger of what traders think the Fed is ultimately planning to do. The most recent set of Fed projections basically showed a 50/50 chance of a first-rate hike sometime next year.\nAt this point, it feels like the market might actually welcome the Fed getting more hawkish because the thing people have arguably worried most about lately is inflation. Tapering and eventually rate hikes are tools the Fed can use to combat rising prices, although Powell thinks the inflation we’re seeing is temporary and caused mainly by supply bottlenecks created as the economy reopens. The September consumer and producer price index reports due in October are likely to get very close attention when they hit the tape.\nIf the rise in yields continues into early October, look for bank shares to possibly benefit. A big part of their profitability depends on the rate picture, with higher rates generally helping their margins. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index (RUT) has a heavy weighting toward banks, so if it’s doing well in early October, it might be a signal that people expect a November taper.\nSmall-cap strength—if we see it—also could mean there’s more optimism about the domestic economy. These smaller companies tend to do most of their business here in the homeland, so they’re often a good barometer of U.S economic health.\nFIGURE 1:WRAPPING UP ANOTHER QUARTER. This year-to-date chart of the Nasdaq 100 (NDX—candlestick), the S&P 500 Index (SPX—purple line), and the Russell 2000 Index (RUT—blue line) show the large-cap indices outrunning the small cap RUT in recent weeks after losing ground to it earlier in the year. The “mega-cap” Tech and Communication Services sectors have pulled up the SPX and NDX recently, but now could face pressure from higher bond yields. Data Source: FTSE Russell, S&P Dow Jones Indices, Nasdaq. Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.\nRiding into Earnings\nThere’s other stuff going on in October beyond the Fed and the baseball playoffs (go White Sox!). October is the start of Q3 earnings season, beginning with the big banks in the middle of the month and followed by all the “FAANG” stocks and their tech cousin Microsoft The major Wall Street banks like JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have had impressive earnings performances so far this year and continue to find ways to improve profit despite a lot of headwinds. If the Fed is actually getting serious about a more hawkish policy, rising yields could become another arrow in the banks’ quiver, so to speak. As always, it will be important to listen to what the CEOs in both Financials and other sectors have to say about the economy, particularly any impact from supply chain issues and the Delta variant of Covid.\nEarly analyst estimates for Q3 S&P 500 earnings growth have it continuing at historically high levels, but well below Q2’s meteoric performance. Research firm FactSet now predicts 27.6% earnings growth for Q3, up from its prediction of 24.2% on June 30. It’s always good to see estimates gaining ground, because it likely reflects positive guidance from companies. Also, in Q2, more than 85% of S&P 500 companies exceeded analysts’ earnings estimates, FactSet said, so there may be plenty of room for the 27.6% number to rise from here if Q3 is anything like Q2.\nChina, Debt Ceiling Seen as Possible Pain Points\nChina could also remain a focus after the Evergrande scare. Late in September, the beleaguered Chinese property developer said it would start making payments on some of its debt. However, Beijing is sending out signals that it might let the real estate giant fail on some of its obligations, namely those held by investors overseas.\nIt’s interesting how the Evergrande worries kind of faded into the background a bit after slamming Wall Street on Sept. 20 when a selloff took stocks down sharply for a single day. However, don’t dismiss the Evergrande issue, even if most stock indexes bounced back later that week. For now, it seems to be in the background, but these stories have a habit of coming back.\nAnother story closer to home that could bite the market in October is the battle over the debt ceiling in Washington, D.C. Several past Treasury secretaries as well as the current one, Janet Yellen, have warned about the danger to the economy if this issue isn’t put to bed soon. The U.S. nearly defaulted on its debt back in 2011 during a similar congressional fight, and the stock market struggled through that crisis. More struggles can’t be ruled out if this continues, but for now, it feels like investors are basically assuming the issue gets resolved amid continued partisan bickering without too much turbulence. We shall see.\nBesides jobs and inflation data, another key government report to look for in October is the government’s first estimate for Q3 economic growth. The gross domestic product (GDP) report, due Oct. 28, will be the first solid report investors see on how the overall economy reacted to the Delta variant that apparently helped bring down jobs growth and consumer sentiment in August and early September.\nThe Fed now projects GDP to rise just 5.9% this year, compared to its 7% forecast in June. This may reflect the Delta variant’s impact. Having said that, the Fed now projects 2023 growth at 3.8%, which is up from its previous 3.3% estimate. The Fed’s GDP projection then slips in 2023 to 2.5%, but that is up slightly from the Fed’s previous estimate.\nEven GDP growth of 5.9% and 3.8% would look pretty impressive considering the under 3% growth people have gotten used to pretty much since the 2008 recession. October won’t ultimately tell the tale on where GDP goes from here, but it could be a good harbinger of how the markets might behave heading into year-end, especially if we get more clarity from the Fed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1010,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/865889903"}