Hi_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-09-30

BioNTech: Stock Price Buoyancy Depends On Comirnaty Sales, But Long Term Value On Pipeline<blockquote>BioNTech：股价上涨取决于Comirnaty销售，但长期价值在于管道</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":865442253,"tweetId":"865442253","gmtCreate":1633013712650,"gmtModify":1633013712887,"author":{"id":3574428256060280,"idStr":"3574428256060280","authorId":3574428256060280,"authorIdStr":"3574428256060280","name":"KinKin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4f58c29c0c165071cb594bd19ce588a","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":15,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Hi</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Hi</body></html>","text":"Hi","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865442253","repostId":1149815025,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149815025","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633013380,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149815025?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-30 22:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"BioNTech: Stock Price Buoyancy Depends On Comirnaty Sales, But Long Term Value On Pipeline<blockquote>BioNTech：股价上涨取决于Comirnaty销售，但长期价值在于管道</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149815025","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBioNTech has been a phenomenal success story for investors, delivering a ~1,900% gain on in","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>BioNTech has been a phenomenal success story for investors, delivering a ~1,900% gain on investment since its 2019 IPO.</li> <li>Sales of its mRNA vaccine Comirnaty will earn the company in excess of $18bn in 2021, management believes - firmly ahead of expectations.</li> <li>These revenues are likely not sustainable, however - I expect them to dip below $10bn from 2022.</li> <li>Nevertheless, BioNTech has never been about a single vaccine and the pipeline excites.</li> <li>mRNA technology is here to stay and BioNTech's pipeline will soon become the key measure for valuing the company. It may take time but a triple-digit billion valuation is a distinct possibility in my view.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4c2347e8f25525b37a93f78e0d8ba65\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1092\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>BioNTech对投资者来说是一个非凡的成功故事，自2019年IPO以来，投资收益约为1,900%。</li><li>管理层相信，2021年其mRNA疫苗Comirnaty的销售额将为该公司带来超过180亿美元的收入，远远超出预期。</li><li>然而，这些收入可能不可持续——我预计从2022年起，它们将降至100亿美元以下。</li><li>尽管如此，BioNTech从来都不是关于单一疫苗，管道令人兴奋。</li><li>mRNA技术将继续存在，BioNTech的产品线将很快成为公司估值的关键指标。这可能需要时间，但在我看来，三位数的估值是一个明显的可能性。</li></ul>PM Images/DigitalVision来自Getty Images</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> BioNTech (BNTX) shareholders who backed the messenger-RNA pioneer at the time of the Germany based company's IPO, which raised ~$150m at a price of $15, can be well satisfied with a &gt;1,900% gain on investment to date - but is the company still worth backing at current price of $277 per share?<blockquote>BioNTech(BNTX)股东在这家德国公司首次公开募股时支持这家信使RNA先驱，该公司以15美元的价格筹集了约1.5亿美元，他们对迄今为止超过1,900%的投资收益感到非常满意-但以目前每股277美元的价格，该公司仍然值得支持吗？</blockquote> When I&nbsp;last covered BioNTech&nbsp;back in February, I set a share price forecast of ~$200 for BioNTech stock, but that was based on sales of its Comirnaty COVID vaccine - jointly developed with Pfizer (PFE) - reaching ~$7.5bn in 2021.<blockquote>当我上次在2月份报道BioNTech时，我将BioNTech股票的股价预测设定为约200美元，但这是基于其与辉瑞(PFE)联合开发的Comirnaty COVID疫苗的销售额到2021年将达到约75亿美元。</blockquote> Releasing its&nbsp;Q2'21 results&nbsp;in early August, the company reported 6-month revenues of $8.56bn - shattering my expectations - and its share price reached a stunning peak of $388.<blockquote>该公司在8月初发布了21年第二季度业绩，报告6个月营收为85.6亿美元，超出了我的预期，股价也达到了388美元的惊人峰值。</blockquote> At the time of writing, shares have fallen back to a price of $277 - discounted by ~29% from their August peak, but with full-year revenues forecast by management to be in the region of $18.5bn, and net profits perhaps reaching &gt;$13.5bn (if we take 6-month net profit figure of $6.8bn and double it), investors will likely look at a forward price to sales ratio of 4x, and forward price to earnings ratio of ~5x, and feel that BioNTech stock continues to look great value.<blockquote>截至撰写本文时，股价已回落至277美元，较8月份的峰值折价约29%，但管理层预测全年收入约为185亿美元，净利润可能达到135亿美元以上（如果我们将6个月净利润数字为68亿美元并翻倍），投资者可能会看到4倍的远期市销率和约5倍的远期市盈率，并认为BioNTech股票看起来仍然很有价值。</blockquote> Essentially, two factors will determine whether BioNTech shares are worth buying at current price, and also how long investors should think about holding them.<blockquote>从本质上讲，有两个因素将决定BioNTech股票是否值得以当前价格购买，以及投资者应该考虑持有它们多长时间。</blockquote> The first is the scale of ongoing demand for its COVID vaccine Comirnaty. Sadly, revenues from this source have probably exceeded the market's wildest expectations, with the pandemic refusing to die down, and with booster shots now&nbsp;approved&nbsp;to be administered to over-65's in the US, and to over-50's in the UK, and&nbsp;under consideration&nbsp;for all people over the age of 16 in Europe, there appears to be no set limit to how many Comirnaty shots BioNTech will eventually sell.<blockquote>首先是对其新冠疫苗Comirnaty的持续需求规模。可悲的是，这一来源的收入可能超出了市场最疯狂的预期，因为疫情拒绝消退，而且加强注射现在被批准用于美国65岁以上的人，在英国50岁以上的人，并且正在考虑针对欧洲所有16岁以上的人，BioNTech最终销售的Comirnaty疫苗数量似乎没有设定限制。</blockquote> The second is the migration of the use of messenger-RNA technologies into other therapeutic modalities, to target a broad range of diseases, where it can potentially challenge current standards of care on efficacy and safety.<blockquote>第二个是信使RNA技术的使用迁移到其他治疗模式中，以针对广泛的疾病，在这些疾病中，它可能会在疗效和安全性方面挑战当前的护理标准。</blockquote> Only in a nightmare scenario will vaccine demand remain at current levels beyond the next 2-3 years, and therefore BioNTech's revenues will not remain at 2021 levels over the long term, unless it can launch new vaccine products targeting e.g. other infectious diseases, oncology, auto-immune, inflammation, regenerative medicines, etc.<blockquote>只有在噩梦般的情况下，疫苗需求才会在未来2-3年内保持在当前水平，因此BioNTech的收入长期不会保持在2021年的水平，除非它能够推出针对其他传染病、肿瘤学、自身免疫、炎症、再生医学等的新疫苗产品。</blockquote> To that end, BioNTech recently released a&nbsp;70-slide presentation&nbsp;highlighting its development pipeline, and reporting progress across all the above treatment fields. Not one single mention of its COVID vaccine can be found, illustrating that BioNTech has never, and will never think of itself as a pure COVID vaccine company.<blockquote>为此，BioNTech最近发布了一份70张幻灯片的演示文稿，重点介绍了其开发管道，并报告了上述所有治疗领域的进展。找不到一处提及其COVID疫苗的地方，这表明BioNTech从来没有也永远不会认为自己是一家纯粹的COVID疫苗公司。</blockquote> Even so, it will take time to successfully develop new mRNA therapies in other indications, and success is not guaranteed.<blockquote>即便如此，在其他适应症中成功开发新的mRNA疗法还需要时间，也不能保证成功。</blockquote> New challengers are emerging in the mRNA field, with strong investor backing and ambitious goals - China-based pharma Abogen Biosciences, for example,recently raised&nbsp;&gt;&nbsp;$700m of funding to develop an mRNA COVID vaccine whilst Sanofi (SNY), the French Pharma company with a &gt;$120bn market cap valuation recently&nbsp;splashed out&nbsp;$3.2bn to acquire Translate Bio, and its messenger RNA Technology targeting Cystic Fibrosis and other genetic diseases.<blockquote>mRNA领域正在出现新的挑战者，拥有强大的投资者支持和雄心勃勃的目标——例如，中国制药公司Abogen Biosciences最近筹集了超过7亿美元的资金来开发mRNA新冠疫苗，而法国制药公司赛诺菲(SNY)市值超过1200亿美元，最近斥资32亿美元收购了Translate Bio及其针对囊性纤维化和其他遗传疾病的信使RNA技术。</blockquote> 6 months ago, Moderna (MRNA), BioNTech and CureVac were probably considered the \"Big 3\" mRNA pioneers, but CureVac's failure to successfully develop a COVID vaccine has wiped &gt;50% off of its market value whilst Moderna stock has realized unprecedented highs, trading at a price of $390 at the time of writing, with a market valuation of $157bn.<blockquote>6个月前，Moderna(MRNA)、BioNTech和CureVac可能被认为是“三大”mRNA先驱，但CureVac未能成功开发新冠疫苗，使其市值蒸发了50%以上，而Moderna股票却实现了前所未有的高点，截至撰写本文时，交易价格为390美元，市值为1570亿美元。</blockquote> That is a staggeringly high valuation, but as I argued in my last post on BioNTech and in&nbsp;other posts on Moderna&nbsp;itself, that valuation could potentially double again if the company can prove that mRNA technology will work in any therapeutic setting - as it is striving to do.<blockquote>这是一个高得惊人的估值，但正如我在关于BioNTech的上一篇文章和关于Moderna本身的其他文章中所指出的那样，如果该公司能够证明mRNA技术可以在任何治疗环境中发挥作用，那么估值可能会再次翻倍——正如它正在努力做的那样。</blockquote> I would certainly argue that BioNTech has more in common with Moderna than it does with CureVac - the company will earn a similar volume of revenues in FY21 as Moderna, and yet its market cap of $75bn is half that of Moderna's.<blockquote>我当然认为BioNTech与Moderna的共同点多于与CureVac的共同点——该公司在2021财年的收入将与Moderna相似，但其750亿美元的市值是Moderna的一半。</blockquote> That may be due firstly to the market's perception that BioNTech owes much of its success to Pfizer, whilst Moderna is not reliant on a Big Pharma partner, and secondly on the strength of Moderna's non-COVID programs.<blockquote>这可能首先是因为市场认为BioNTech的成功很大程度上归功于辉瑞，而Moderna并不依赖大型制药合作伙伴，其次是因为Moderna的非新冠项目的实力。</blockquote> In the rest of this post I will take a closer look at BioNTech's Covid earnings, and its longer-term development pipeline in order to highlight the short and long-term investment cases.<blockquote>在本文的其余部分中，我将仔细研究BioNTech的Covid收益及其长期发展渠道，以强调短期和长期投资案例。</blockquote> My thesis is that BioNTech is not worth less than half Moderna, and that Moderna itself is potentially undervalued relative to its opportunities to develop mRNA vaccines and therapies in other therapeutic modalities.<blockquote>我的论点是，BioNTech的价值不低于Moderna的一半，而且相对于其在其他治疗模式中开发mRNA疫苗和疗法的机会，Moderna本身可能被低估。</blockquote> As such, my feeling is that investors can pick up BioNTech stock at current price and be optimistic of ~30% near-term upside, based on recent developments with Comirnaty, and the introduction of booster shots.<blockquote>因此，我的感觉是，根据Comirnaty最近的进展以及加强注射的推出，投资者可以以当前价格买入BioNTech股票，并对近期约30%的上涨持乐观态度。</blockquote> A dip may follow if COVID revenues begin to slide after 2022, which I expect to happen, and be pronounced, but this ought to be offset by pipeline progress, which suggests to me that BioNTech could maintain a &gt;$100bn market cap, which may even be at the lower end of expectations.<blockquote>如果COVID收入在2022年之后开始下滑（我预计这种情况会发生，并且是明显的），那么收入可能会下降，但这应该会被管道进展所抵消，这在我看来表明BioNTech可以保持超过1000亿美元的市值，这可能甚至处于预期的下限。</blockquote> Outlook for Comirnaty<blockquote>Comirnaty展望</blockquote> Pfizer/BioNTech'sCovid vaccine - now known as Comirnaty, is fully approved by the FDA, and used in &gt;130 countries in the fight against Coronavirus.<blockquote>辉瑞/BioNTech的COVID疫苗——现在被称为Comirnaty，已获得FDA的完全批准，并在超过130个国家用于对抗冠状病毒。</blockquote> In the first 6 months of 2021, BioNTech and Pfizer shipped &gt;1bn doses of Comirnaty, signed supply contracts to deliver another 2.2bn doses by the end of the year, and committed to supply a further 2bn doses to low and middle-income nations, according to a summation in BioNTech's Q2'21&nbsp;earnings presentation.<blockquote>根据BioNTech 21年第二季度财报的总结，2021年前6个月，BioNTech和辉瑞运送了超过10亿剂Comirnaty，签署了到年底再交付22亿剂的供应合同，并承诺向中低收入国家再供应20亿剂。</blockquote> Alongside an agreement signed with the EU to provide 900m doses, and potentially another 900m - doses that had been earmarked for fulfilment by CureVac before its vaccine&nbsp;failed to achieve&nbsp;the required efficacy in its pivotal trial, with just 47% versus Pfizer / BioNTech's &gt;95% - there are 90m doses going to the US, and potentially 90m more in 2022.<blockquote>除了与欧盟签署的提供9亿剂疫苗的协议外，还可能再提供9亿剂疫苗——在其疫苗在关键试验中未能达到所需功效之前，CureVac已指定由其履行，仅为47%，而辉瑞/BioNTech的疫苗&gt;95%——美国将有9000万剂疫苗，2022年可能会增加9000万剂。</blockquote> Since August, however, Comirnaty has&nbsp;received&nbsp;an Emergency Use Authorisation (\"EUA\") for use as a booster vaccine, for individuals 65 years of age and older, and individuals ages 18 through 64 within certain high-risk groups, based on data suggesting that the vaccine \"elicits high neutralization titers against SARS-CoV-2 and all currently tested variants\".<blockquote>然而，自8月以来，Comirnaty已获得紧急使用授权（“EUA”），用作加强疫苗，适用于65岁及以上的个人以及某些高危人群中18至64岁的个人，数据表明该疫苗“对新型冠状病毒病毒和所有当前测试的变种产生高中和滴度”。</blockquote> Covid is simply refusing to go away, with a significant spike in infections, hospitalizations and deaths reported across the past 2 months, according to data from the&nbsp;New York Times.<blockquote>根据《纽约时报》的数据，Covid根本拒绝消失，过去两个月报告的感染、住院和死亡人数大幅增加。</blockquote> Just as it was the first vaccine approved in the US for COVID, Comirnaty is now the first to be approved as a booster shot, and it seems logical that, in time, booster shots will be extended to the entire US population, and populations worldwide. Looking further ahead, it also seems likely that annual or biannual shots will be required as COVID becomes an endemic disease.<blockquote>正如它是美国批准的第一个用于COVID的疫苗一样，Comirnaty现在是第一个被批准作为加强注射的疫苗，随着时间的推移，加强注射将扩展到整个美国人口和世界各地的人口，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。展望未来，随着COVID成为一种地方病，似乎也可能需要每年或每两年注射一次。</blockquote> With that said, I would argue that it is unlikely that BioNTech will replicate its $18bn of sales - which works out at just under 1bn doses - in 2021 in future years.<blockquote>话虽如此，我认为BioNTech不太可能在未来几年复制其2021年180亿美元的销售额（即略低于10亿剂）。</blockquote> At maximum capacity, Pfizer/BioNTech can manufacture ~2bn doses per annum, so we can be fairly sure that each firms' sales are capped at &gt;$20bn per annum, but it is also likely that both companies average selling price will decrease after 2021, as the vaccine rollout switches from developed, to developing nations.<blockquote>在最大产能下，辉瑞/BioNTech每年可以生产约20亿剂疫苗，因此我们可以相当肯定每家公司的销售额上限为每年200亿美元以上，但两家公司的平均售价也有可能在2021年后下降，随着疫苗的推出从发达国家转向发展中国家。</blockquote> Arguably, if every global citizen receives 2 vaccinations per annum, there is demand for ~16bn doses per annum, and as a key supplier, BioNTech would have no issues selling 1bn doses per annum. The deals recently done with the EU are not far short of such figures, but they may not be repeatable, and logistically speaking there is little or no chance that any population globally will be able to achieve &gt;50% population vaccination in a single year in my view.<blockquote>可以说，如果每个全球公民每年接种2次疫苗，每年的需求约为160亿剂，而作为主要供应商，BioNTech每年销售10亿剂疫苗不会有任何问题。最近与欧盟达成的协议与这样的数字相差不远，但它们可能无法重复，从逻辑上讲，在我看来，全球任何人口在一年内实现超过50%的人口疫苗接种的可能性很小或没有。</blockquote> As such, I would not expect to see BioNTech earn double-digit billions from Comirnaty sales in any year after 2021, and its profit margins may well narrow after this year - the near 80% profit margin achieved across the first 6 months of 2021 is also simply unsustainable from an economic or ethical viewpoint.<blockquote>因此，我预计BioNTech在2021年之后的任何一年都不会从Comirnaty销售额中赚取两位数的数十亿美元，而且其利润率在今年之后很可能会收窄——2021年前6个月实现的近80%的利润率也是从经济或伦理的角度来看根本是不可持续的。</blockquote> I would put forward an average figure of ~$8bn per annum for BioNTech's earnings from Comirnaty between 2022 - 2025, for the reasons discussed above, and a profit margin average of ~50%.<blockquote>出于上述原因，我认为BioNTech在2022年至2025年间从Comirnaty获得的平均收益约为每年80亿美元，平均利润率约为50%。</blockquote> That gives me a price to sales ratio of ~9.4x and price to earnings ratio of ~19x - not especially attractive, but realistic, and for a company with as much promise as BioNTech, perhaps a strong value proposition, given what may come from its pipeline.<blockquote>这给了我约9.4倍的市销率和约19倍的市盈率——不是特别有吸引力，但很现实，对于像BioNTech这样有前途的公司来说，考虑到可能来自它的管道。</blockquote> Outlook for Pipeline<blockquote>管道展望</blockquote> When we think about the fact that neither BioNTech nor Moderna can realistically rely on revenues or profit margins from its COVID vaccine sales being sustained over the long term at current levels, their valuations - $75bn and $153bn respectively - may look too high.<blockquote>当我们想到BioNTech和Moderna都无法真正依赖其新冠疫苗销售的收入或利润率长期维持在当前水平时，它们的估值（分别为750亿美元和1530亿美元）可能看起来太高了。</blockquote> But believers in mRNA technology - and why wouldn't anyone be excited by a technology as powerful as mRNA, which can effectively instruct cells to manufacture literally any protein - may feel that both companies are significantly undervalued.<blockquote>但mRNA技术的信徒——以及为什么没有人会对mRNA这样强大的技术感到兴奋，这种技术可以有效地指导细胞制造任何蛋白质——可能会觉得这两家公司的价值都被严重低估了。</blockquote> The key question, however, is whether each company is able to deliver the hoped for revolution in medicine - personalized vaccines for many/all disease types, tailored to the patients' specific genetic profile - how long it will take, what the risk of failure is, and what will happen to each company's share price in the interim period.<blockquote>然而，关键问题是每家公司是否能够提供人们所希望的医学革命——针对许多/所有疾病类型的个性化疫苗，根据患者的特定基因特征量身定制——这需要多长时间，失败的风险是什么，以及在此期间每家公司的股价会发生什么变化。</blockquote> The first and most obvious targets are infectious diseases - then oncology, CAR-T cell therapy, immuno-therapies, and then expansion into multiple modalities, covering most disease types that any investor can care to think of.<blockquote>第一个也是最明显的目标是传染病——然后是肿瘤学、CAR-T细胞疗法、免疫疗法，然后扩展到多种模式，涵盖任何投资者能想到的大多数疾病类型。</blockquote> 12 months ago even, BioNTech's infectious disease pipeline went largely under the radar but emboldened by its success with Comirnaty, BioNTech now boasts vaccines in development for Malaria, Tuberculosis and HIV, 10 mRNA vaccines in clinical development targeting infectious diseases, and an influenza vaccine, jointly developed with Pfizer, which implies that the 2 companies are willing to work together over the long term - perhaps a merger is even a possibility.<blockquote>甚至在12个月前，BioNTech的传染病产品线在很大程度上还没有引起人们的注意，但由于Comirnaty的成功，BioNTech现在拥有正在开发的疟疾、结核病和艾滋病毒疫苗，10种针对传染病的mRNA疫苗正在临床开发中，以及一种流感疫苗，与辉瑞联合开发，这意味着两家公司愿意长期合作——也许合并甚至是可能的。</blockquote> By the end of this year, BioNTech will deliver 5 trial updates from vaccines targeting solid tumors, leveraging bi-specifics, CD40, and CAR-T cell therapy, and largely targeting solid tumors, initiate 3 Phase 2 trials, targeting melanoma, head and neck cancer, and colorectal cancer, as well as 7 Phase 1 trials, including its influenza vaccine program.<blockquote>到今年年底，BioNTech将提供5项针对实体瘤的疫苗的试验更新，利用双特异性、CD40和CAR-T细胞疗法，并主要针对实体瘤，启动3项2期试验，针对黑色素瘤、头颈癌和结直肠癌，以及7项1期试验，包括其流感疫苗计划。</blockquote> All of the company's plans are laid out in its latest&nbsp;investor presentation- collaborations with Pharma powerhouses such as Regeneron (REGN), Genentech (a Roche subsidiary), and Sanofi, as well as Pfizer.<blockquote>该公司的所有计划都在其最新的投资者演示中进行了阐述——与再生元(REGN)、基因泰克（罗氏子公司）、赛诺菲以及辉瑞等制药巨头的合作。</blockquote> There are 15 oncology programs in total, 6 infectious disease vaccines (admittedly still at the preclinical stage), therapies targeting PD-1 / PDL1, the targets of cancer blockbuster drugs such as Bristol Myers Squibb's (BMY) Opdivo and Merck's (MRK) Keytruda, cell therapies, and cytokine inhibitors.<blockquote>总共有15个肿瘤学项目、6个传染病疫苗（诚然仍处于临床前阶段）、靶向PD-1/PDL1的疗法、百时美施贵宝(BMY)Opdivo和默克(MRK)Keytruda等癌症重磅药物的靶点、细胞疗法和细胞因子抑制剂。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> My point in relation to both BioNTech and Moderna is that both are increasingly beginning to behave more and more like Big Pharma firms - anticipating that their revenue-generating assets may not have a lengthy shelf life, and understanding that they must deliver new medicines in order to support current valuations over the longer term.<blockquote>我对BioNTech和Moderna的看法是，两者的行为越来越像大型制药公司——预计他们的创收资产可能没有很长的保质期，并明白他们必须提供新药才能长期支持当前估值。</blockquote> Reviewing BioNtech's latest investor presentation - which I encourage all prospective investors to do - I was struck by the amount of progress BioNTech has made in a single year, and not just from a development perspective - the company has always had grand ambitions - but from an organisational, and PR perspective also.<blockquote>回顾BioNTech最新的投资者演示文稿（我鼓励所有潜在投资者这样做），我对BioNTech在一年内取得的进步感到震惊，不仅从发展的角度来看——该公司一直有远大的抱负——而且从组织和公关的角度来看。</blockquote> There's no question in my mind that the market still values BioNTech as if it were a pure COVID vaccine play, and any company with a single, $18bn per annum selling asset is highly unlikely to be able to distract investor's attention away from that asset.<blockquote>在我看来，毫无疑问，市场仍然将BioNTech视为纯粹的新冠疫苗业务，任何每年出售180亿美元资产的公司都不太可能将投资者的注意力从该资产上转移开。</blockquote> But BioNtech and its management team are smarter than most, in my view, just like their technology, and it is planning for the long term.<blockquote>但在我看来，BioNtech及其管理团队比大多数人都聪明，就像他们的技术一样，并且正在进行长期规划。</blockquote> Data readouts in oncology - and there ought to be 5 before the end of this year - and progress towards commercialisation of a new infectious disease vaccine - will rapidly become the key yardsticks for assessing the true value of BioNTech shares.<blockquote>肿瘤学数据（今年年底前应该会有5个）以及新型传染病疫苗商业化的进展将迅速成为评估BioNTech股票真实价值的关键标准。</blockquote> There is currently no need for investors to be concerned about BioNtech's share price crashing on negative data readouts from these programs - when there are double-digit billion annual revenues in play - but these programs will increasingly replace Comirnaty sales as the stock markets' weighing machine, and that ought to be good news for fans of mRNA science - of which I am one.<blockquote>目前，投资者没有必要担心BioNtech的股价因这些项目的负面数据而暴跌（当年收入达到两位数十亿美元时），但这些项目将越来越多地取代Comirnaty sales成为股市的称重机器，这对于mRNA科学的粉丝来说应该是个好消息——我就是其中之一。</blockquote> It may take time, but BioNTech represents an exciting buy and hold opportunity for biotech enthusiasts, in my view.<blockquote>这可能需要时间，但在我看来，BioNTech对于生物技术爱好者来说是一个令人兴奋的买入并持有机会。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BioNTech: Stock Price Buoyancy Depends On Comirnaty Sales, But Long Term Value On Pipeline<blockquote>BioNTech：股价上涨取决于Comirnaty销售，但长期价值在于管道</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBioNTech: Stock Price Buoyancy Depends On Comirnaty Sales, But Long Term Value On Pipeline<blockquote>BioNTech：股价上涨取决于Comirnaty销售，但长期价值在于管道</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-30 22:49\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>BioNTech has been a phenomenal success story for investors, delivering a ~1,900% gain on investment since its 2019 IPO.</li> <li>Sales of its mRNA vaccine Comirnaty will earn the company in excess of $18bn in 2021, management believes - firmly ahead of expectations.</li> <li>These revenues are likely not sustainable, however - I expect them to dip below $10bn from 2022.</li> <li>Nevertheless, BioNTech has never been about a single vaccine and the pipeline excites.</li> <li>mRNA technology is here to stay and BioNTech's pipeline will soon become the key measure for valuing the company. It may take time but a triple-digit billion valuation is a distinct possibility in my view.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4c2347e8f25525b37a93f78e0d8ba65\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1092\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>BioNTech对投资者来说是一个非凡的成功故事，自2019年IPO以来，投资收益约为1,900%。</li><li>管理层相信，2021年其mRNA疫苗Comirnaty的销售额将为该公司带来超过180亿美元的收入，远远超出预期。</li><li>然而，这些收入可能不可持续——我预计从2022年起，它们将降至100亿美元以下。</li><li>尽管如此，BioNTech从来都不是关于单一疫苗，管道令人兴奋。</li><li>mRNA技术将继续存在，BioNTech的产品线将很快成为公司估值的关键指标。这可能需要时间，但在我看来，三位数的估值是一个明显的可能性。</li></ul>PM Images/DigitalVision来自Getty Images</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> BioNTech (BNTX) shareholders who backed the messenger-RNA pioneer at the time of the Germany based company's IPO, which raised ~$150m at a price of $15, can be well satisfied with a &gt;1,900% gain on investment to date - but is the company still worth backing at current price of $277 per share?<blockquote>BioNTech(BNTX)股东在这家德国公司首次公开募股时支持这家信使RNA先驱，该公司以15美元的价格筹集了约1.5亿美元，他们对迄今为止超过1,900%的投资收益感到非常满意-但以目前每股277美元的价格，该公司仍然值得支持吗？</blockquote> When I&nbsp;last covered BioNTech&nbsp;back in February, I set a share price forecast of ~$200 for BioNTech stock, but that was based on sales of its Comirnaty COVID vaccine - jointly developed with Pfizer (PFE) - reaching ~$7.5bn in 2021.<blockquote>当我上次在2月份报道BioNTech时，我将BioNTech股票的股价预测设定为约200美元，但这是基于其与辉瑞(PFE)联合开发的Comirnaty COVID疫苗的销售额到2021年将达到约75亿美元。</blockquote> Releasing its&nbsp;Q2'21 results&nbsp;in early August, the company reported 6-month revenues of $8.56bn - shattering my expectations - and its share price reached a stunning peak of $388.<blockquote>该公司在8月初发布了21年第二季度业绩，报告6个月营收为85.6亿美元，超出了我的预期，股价也达到了388美元的惊人峰值。</blockquote> At the time of writing, shares have fallen back to a price of $277 - discounted by ~29% from their August peak, but with full-year revenues forecast by management to be in the region of $18.5bn, and net profits perhaps reaching &gt;$13.5bn (if we take 6-month net profit figure of $6.8bn and double it), investors will likely look at a forward price to sales ratio of 4x, and forward price to earnings ratio of ~5x, and feel that BioNTech stock continues to look great value.<blockquote>截至撰写本文时，股价已回落至277美元，较8月份的峰值折价约29%，但管理层预测全年收入约为185亿美元，净利润可能达到135亿美元以上（如果我们将6个月净利润数字为68亿美元并翻倍），投资者可能会看到4倍的远期市销率和约5倍的远期市盈率，并认为BioNTech股票看起来仍然很有价值。</blockquote> Essentially, two factors will determine whether BioNTech shares are worth buying at current price, and also how long investors should think about holding them.<blockquote>从本质上讲，有两个因素将决定BioNTech股票是否值得以当前价格购买，以及投资者应该考虑持有它们多长时间。</blockquote> The first is the scale of ongoing demand for its COVID vaccine Comirnaty. Sadly, revenues from this source have probably exceeded the market's wildest expectations, with the pandemic refusing to die down, and with booster shots now&nbsp;approved&nbsp;to be administered to over-65's in the US, and to over-50's in the UK, and&nbsp;under consideration&nbsp;for all people over the age of 16 in Europe, there appears to be no set limit to how many Comirnaty shots BioNTech will eventually sell.<blockquote>首先是对其新冠疫苗Comirnaty的持续需求规模。可悲的是，这一来源的收入可能超出了市场最疯狂的预期，因为疫情拒绝消退，而且加强注射现在被批准用于美国65岁以上的人，在英国50岁以上的人，并且正在考虑针对欧洲所有16岁以上的人，BioNTech最终销售的Comirnaty疫苗数量似乎没有设定限制。</blockquote> The second is the migration of the use of messenger-RNA technologies into other therapeutic modalities, to target a broad range of diseases, where it can potentially challenge current standards of care on efficacy and safety.<blockquote>第二个是信使RNA技术的使用迁移到其他治疗模式中，以针对广泛的疾病，在这些疾病中，它可能会在疗效和安全性方面挑战当前的护理标准。</blockquote> Only in a nightmare scenario will vaccine demand remain at current levels beyond the next 2-3 years, and therefore BioNTech's revenues will not remain at 2021 levels over the long term, unless it can launch new vaccine products targeting e.g. other infectious diseases, oncology, auto-immune, inflammation, regenerative medicines, etc.<blockquote>只有在噩梦般的情况下，疫苗需求才会在未来2-3年内保持在当前水平，因此BioNTech的收入长期不会保持在2021年的水平，除非它能够推出针对其他传染病、肿瘤学、自身免疫、炎症、再生医学等的新疫苗产品。</blockquote> To that end, BioNTech recently released a&nbsp;70-slide presentation&nbsp;highlighting its development pipeline, and reporting progress across all the above treatment fields. Not one single mention of its COVID vaccine can be found, illustrating that BioNTech has never, and will never think of itself as a pure COVID vaccine company.<blockquote>为此，BioNTech最近发布了一份70张幻灯片的演示文稿，重点介绍了其开发管道，并报告了上述所有治疗领域的进展。找不到一处提及其COVID疫苗的地方，这表明BioNTech从来没有也永远不会认为自己是一家纯粹的COVID疫苗公司。</blockquote> Even so, it will take time to successfully develop new mRNA therapies in other indications, and success is not guaranteed.<blockquote>即便如此，在其他适应症中成功开发新的mRNA疗法还需要时间，也不能保证成功。</blockquote> New challengers are emerging in the mRNA field, with strong investor backing and ambitious goals - China-based pharma Abogen Biosciences, for example,recently raised&nbsp;&gt;&nbsp;$700m of funding to develop an mRNA COVID vaccine whilst Sanofi (SNY), the French Pharma company with a &gt;$120bn market cap valuation recently&nbsp;splashed out&nbsp;$3.2bn to acquire Translate Bio, and its messenger RNA Technology targeting Cystic Fibrosis and other genetic diseases.<blockquote>mRNA领域正在出现新的挑战者，拥有强大的投资者支持和雄心勃勃的目标——例如，中国制药公司Abogen Biosciences最近筹集了超过7亿美元的资金来开发mRNA新冠疫苗，而法国制药公司赛诺菲(SNY)市值超过1200亿美元，最近斥资32亿美元收购了Translate Bio及其针对囊性纤维化和其他遗传疾病的信使RNA技术。</blockquote> 6 months ago, Moderna (MRNA), BioNTech and CureVac were probably considered the \"Big 3\" mRNA pioneers, but CureVac's failure to successfully develop a COVID vaccine has wiped &gt;50% off of its market value whilst Moderna stock has realized unprecedented highs, trading at a price of $390 at the time of writing, with a market valuation of $157bn.<blockquote>6个月前，Moderna(MRNA)、BioNTech和CureVac可能被认为是“三大”mRNA先驱，但CureVac未能成功开发新冠疫苗，使其市值蒸发了50%以上，而Moderna股票却实现了前所未有的高点，截至撰写本文时，交易价格为390美元，市值为1570亿美元。</blockquote> That is a staggeringly high valuation, but as I argued in my last post on BioNTech and in&nbsp;other posts on Moderna&nbsp;itself, that valuation could potentially double again if the company can prove that mRNA technology will work in any therapeutic setting - as it is striving to do.<blockquote>这是一个高得惊人的估值，但正如我在关于BioNTech的上一篇文章和关于Moderna本身的其他文章中所指出的那样，如果该公司能够证明mRNA技术可以在任何治疗环境中发挥作用，那么估值可能会再次翻倍——正如它正在努力做的那样。</blockquote> I would certainly argue that BioNTech has more in common with Moderna than it does with CureVac - the company will earn a similar volume of revenues in FY21 as Moderna, and yet its market cap of $75bn is half that of Moderna's.<blockquote>我当然认为BioNTech与Moderna的共同点多于与CureVac的共同点——该公司在2021财年的收入将与Moderna相似，但其750亿美元的市值是Moderna的一半。</blockquote> That may be due firstly to the market's perception that BioNTech owes much of its success to Pfizer, whilst Moderna is not reliant on a Big Pharma partner, and secondly on the strength of Moderna's non-COVID programs.<blockquote>这可能首先是因为市场认为BioNTech的成功很大程度上归功于辉瑞，而Moderna并不依赖大型制药合作伙伴，其次是因为Moderna的非新冠项目的实力。</blockquote> In the rest of this post I will take a closer look at BioNTech's Covid earnings, and its longer-term development pipeline in order to highlight the short and long-term investment cases.<blockquote>在本文的其余部分中，我将仔细研究BioNTech的Covid收益及其长期发展渠道，以强调短期和长期投资案例。</blockquote> My thesis is that BioNTech is not worth less than half Moderna, and that Moderna itself is potentially undervalued relative to its opportunities to develop mRNA vaccines and therapies in other therapeutic modalities.<blockquote>我的论点是，BioNTech的价值不低于Moderna的一半，而且相对于其在其他治疗模式中开发mRNA疫苗和疗法的机会，Moderna本身可能被低估。</blockquote> As such, my feeling is that investors can pick up BioNTech stock at current price and be optimistic of ~30% near-term upside, based on recent developments with Comirnaty, and the introduction of booster shots.<blockquote>因此，我的感觉是，根据Comirnaty最近的进展以及加强注射的推出，投资者可以以当前价格买入BioNTech股票，并对近期约30%的上涨持乐观态度。</blockquote> A dip may follow if COVID revenues begin to slide after 2022, which I expect to happen, and be pronounced, but this ought to be offset by pipeline progress, which suggests to me that BioNTech could maintain a &gt;$100bn market cap, which may even be at the lower end of expectations.<blockquote>如果COVID收入在2022年之后开始下滑（我预计这种情况会发生，并且是明显的），那么收入可能会下降，但这应该会被管道进展所抵消，这在我看来表明BioNTech可以保持超过1000亿美元的市值，这可能甚至处于预期的下限。</blockquote> Outlook for Comirnaty<blockquote>Comirnaty展望</blockquote> Pfizer/BioNTech'sCovid vaccine - now known as Comirnaty, is fully approved by the FDA, and used in &gt;130 countries in the fight against Coronavirus.<blockquote>辉瑞/BioNTech的COVID疫苗——现在被称为Comirnaty，已获得FDA的完全批准，并在超过130个国家用于对抗冠状病毒。</blockquote> In the first 6 months of 2021, BioNTech and Pfizer shipped &gt;1bn doses of Comirnaty, signed supply contracts to deliver another 2.2bn doses by the end of the year, and committed to supply a further 2bn doses to low and middle-income nations, according to a summation in BioNTech's Q2'21&nbsp;earnings presentation.<blockquote>根据BioNTech 21年第二季度财报的总结，2021年前6个月，BioNTech和辉瑞运送了超过10亿剂Comirnaty，签署了到年底再交付22亿剂的供应合同，并承诺向中低收入国家再供应20亿剂。</blockquote> Alongside an agreement signed with the EU to provide 900m doses, and potentially another 900m - doses that had been earmarked for fulfilment by CureVac before its vaccine&nbsp;failed to achieve&nbsp;the required efficacy in its pivotal trial, with just 47% versus Pfizer / BioNTech's &gt;95% - there are 90m doses going to the US, and potentially 90m more in 2022.<blockquote>除了与欧盟签署的提供9亿剂疫苗的协议外，还可能再提供9亿剂疫苗——在其疫苗在关键试验中未能达到所需功效之前，CureVac已指定由其履行，仅为47%，而辉瑞/BioNTech的疫苗&gt;95%——美国将有9000万剂疫苗，2022年可能会增加9000万剂。</blockquote> Since August, however, Comirnaty has&nbsp;received&nbsp;an Emergency Use Authorisation (\"EUA\") for use as a booster vaccine, for individuals 65 years of age and older, and individuals ages 18 through 64 within certain high-risk groups, based on data suggesting that the vaccine \"elicits high neutralization titers against SARS-CoV-2 and all currently tested variants\".<blockquote>然而，自8月以来，Comirnaty已获得紧急使用授权（“EUA”），用作加强疫苗，适用于65岁及以上的个人以及某些高危人群中18至64岁的个人，数据表明该疫苗“对新型冠状病毒病毒和所有当前测试的变种产生高中和滴度”。</blockquote> Covid is simply refusing to go away, with a significant spike in infections, hospitalizations and deaths reported across the past 2 months, according to data from the&nbsp;New York Times.<blockquote>根据《纽约时报》的数据，Covid根本拒绝消失，过去两个月报告的感染、住院和死亡人数大幅增加。</blockquote> Just as it was the first vaccine approved in the US for COVID, Comirnaty is now the first to be approved as a booster shot, and it seems logical that, in time, booster shots will be extended to the entire US population, and populations worldwide. Looking further ahead, it also seems likely that annual or biannual shots will be required as COVID becomes an endemic disease.<blockquote>正如它是美国批准的第一个用于COVID的疫苗一样，Comirnaty现在是第一个被批准作为加强注射的疫苗，随着时间的推移，加强注射将扩展到整个美国人口和世界各地的人口，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。展望未来，随着COVID成为一种地方病，似乎也可能需要每年或每两年注射一次。</blockquote> With that said, I would argue that it is unlikely that BioNTech will replicate its $18bn of sales - which works out at just under 1bn doses - in 2021 in future years.<blockquote>话虽如此，我认为BioNTech不太可能在未来几年复制其2021年180亿美元的销售额（即略低于10亿剂）。</blockquote> At maximum capacity, Pfizer/BioNTech can manufacture ~2bn doses per annum, so we can be fairly sure that each firms' sales are capped at &gt;$20bn per annum, but it is also likely that both companies average selling price will decrease after 2021, as the vaccine rollout switches from developed, to developing nations.<blockquote>在最大产能下，辉瑞/BioNTech每年可以生产约20亿剂疫苗，因此我们可以相当肯定每家公司的销售额上限为每年200亿美元以上，但两家公司的平均售价也有可能在2021年后下降，随着疫苗的推出从发达国家转向发展中国家。</blockquote> Arguably, if every global citizen receives 2 vaccinations per annum, there is demand for ~16bn doses per annum, and as a key supplier, BioNTech would have no issues selling 1bn doses per annum. The deals recently done with the EU are not far short of such figures, but they may not be repeatable, and logistically speaking there is little or no chance that any population globally will be able to achieve &gt;50% population vaccination in a single year in my view.<blockquote>可以说，如果每个全球公民每年接种2次疫苗，每年的需求约为160亿剂，而作为主要供应商，BioNTech每年销售10亿剂疫苗不会有任何问题。最近与欧盟达成的协议与这样的数字相差不远，但它们可能无法重复，从逻辑上讲，在我看来，全球任何人口在一年内实现超过50%的人口疫苗接种的可能性很小或没有。</blockquote> As such, I would not expect to see BioNTech earn double-digit billions from Comirnaty sales in any year after 2021, and its profit margins may well narrow after this year - the near 80% profit margin achieved across the first 6 months of 2021 is also simply unsustainable from an economic or ethical viewpoint.<blockquote>因此，我预计BioNTech在2021年之后的任何一年都不会从Comirnaty销售额中赚取两位数的数十亿美元，而且其利润率在今年之后很可能会收窄——2021年前6个月实现的近80%的利润率也是从经济或伦理的角度来看根本是不可持续的。</blockquote> I would put forward an average figure of ~$8bn per annum for BioNTech's earnings from Comirnaty between 2022 - 2025, for the reasons discussed above, and a profit margin average of ~50%.<blockquote>出于上述原因，我认为BioNTech在2022年至2025年间从Comirnaty获得的平均收益约为每年80亿美元，平均利润率约为50%。</blockquote> That gives me a price to sales ratio of ~9.4x and price to earnings ratio of ~19x - not especially attractive, but realistic, and for a company with as much promise as BioNTech, perhaps a strong value proposition, given what may come from its pipeline.<blockquote>这给了我约9.4倍的市销率和约19倍的市盈率——不是特别有吸引力，但很现实，对于像BioNTech这样有前途的公司来说，考虑到可能来自它的管道。</blockquote> Outlook for Pipeline<blockquote>管道展望</blockquote> When we think about the fact that neither BioNTech nor Moderna can realistically rely on revenues or profit margins from its COVID vaccine sales being sustained over the long term at current levels, their valuations - $75bn and $153bn respectively - may look too high.<blockquote>当我们想到BioNTech和Moderna都无法真正依赖其新冠疫苗销售的收入或利润率长期维持在当前水平时，它们的估值（分别为750亿美元和1530亿美元）可能看起来太高了。</blockquote> But believers in mRNA technology - and why wouldn't anyone be excited by a technology as powerful as mRNA, which can effectively instruct cells to manufacture literally any protein - may feel that both companies are significantly undervalued.<blockquote>但mRNA技术的信徒——以及为什么没有人会对mRNA这样强大的技术感到兴奋，这种技术可以有效地指导细胞制造任何蛋白质——可能会觉得这两家公司的价值都被严重低估了。</blockquote> The key question, however, is whether each company is able to deliver the hoped for revolution in medicine - personalized vaccines for many/all disease types, tailored to the patients' specific genetic profile - how long it will take, what the risk of failure is, and what will happen to each company's share price in the interim period.<blockquote>然而，关键问题是每家公司是否能够提供人们所希望的医学革命——针对许多/所有疾病类型的个性化疫苗，根据患者的特定基因特征量身定制——这需要多长时间，失败的风险是什么，以及在此期间每家公司的股价会发生什么变化。</blockquote> The first and most obvious targets are infectious diseases - then oncology, CAR-T cell therapy, immuno-therapies, and then expansion into multiple modalities, covering most disease types that any investor can care to think of.<blockquote>第一个也是最明显的目标是传染病——然后是肿瘤学、CAR-T细胞疗法、免疫疗法，然后扩展到多种模式，涵盖任何投资者能想到的大多数疾病类型。</blockquote> 12 months ago even, BioNTech's infectious disease pipeline went largely under the radar but emboldened by its success with Comirnaty, BioNTech now boasts vaccines in development for Malaria, Tuberculosis and HIV, 10 mRNA vaccines in clinical development targeting infectious diseases, and an influenza vaccine, jointly developed with Pfizer, which implies that the 2 companies are willing to work together over the long term - perhaps a merger is even a possibility.<blockquote>甚至在12个月前，BioNTech的传染病产品线在很大程度上还没有引起人们的注意，但由于Comirnaty的成功，BioNTech现在拥有正在开发的疟疾、结核病和艾滋病毒疫苗，10种针对传染病的mRNA疫苗正在临床开发中，以及一种流感疫苗，与辉瑞联合开发，这意味着两家公司愿意长期合作——也许合并甚至是可能的。</blockquote> By the end of this year, BioNTech will deliver 5 trial updates from vaccines targeting solid tumors, leveraging bi-specifics, CD40, and CAR-T cell therapy, and largely targeting solid tumors, initiate 3 Phase 2 trials, targeting melanoma, head and neck cancer, and colorectal cancer, as well as 7 Phase 1 trials, including its influenza vaccine program.<blockquote>到今年年底，BioNTech将提供5项针对实体瘤的疫苗的试验更新，利用双特异性、CD40和CAR-T细胞疗法，并主要针对实体瘤，启动3项2期试验，针对黑色素瘤、头颈癌和结直肠癌，以及7项1期试验，包括其流感疫苗计划。</blockquote> All of the company's plans are laid out in its latest&nbsp;investor presentation- collaborations with Pharma powerhouses such as Regeneron (REGN), Genentech (a Roche subsidiary), and Sanofi, as well as Pfizer.<blockquote>该公司的所有计划都在其最新的投资者演示中进行了阐述——与再生元(REGN)、基因泰克（罗氏子公司）、赛诺菲以及辉瑞等制药巨头的合作。</blockquote> There are 15 oncology programs in total, 6 infectious disease vaccines (admittedly still at the preclinical stage), therapies targeting PD-1 / PDL1, the targets of cancer blockbuster drugs such as Bristol Myers Squibb's (BMY) Opdivo and Merck's (MRK) Keytruda, cell therapies, and cytokine inhibitors.<blockquote>总共有15个肿瘤学项目、6个传染病疫苗（诚然仍处于临床前阶段）、靶向PD-1/PDL1的疗法、百时美施贵宝(BMY)Opdivo和默克(MRK)Keytruda等癌症重磅药物的靶点、细胞疗法和细胞因子抑制剂。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> My point in relation to both BioNTech and Moderna is that both are increasingly beginning to behave more and more like Big Pharma firms - anticipating that their revenue-generating assets may not have a lengthy shelf life, and understanding that they must deliver new medicines in order to support current valuations over the longer term.<blockquote>我对BioNTech和Moderna的看法是，两者的行为越来越像大型制药公司——预计他们的创收资产可能没有很长的保质期，并明白他们必须提供新药才能长期支持当前估值。</blockquote> Reviewing BioNtech's latest investor presentation - which I encourage all prospective investors to do - I was struck by the amount of progress BioNTech has made in a single year, and not just from a development perspective - the company has always had grand ambitions - but from an organisational, and PR perspective also.<blockquote>回顾BioNTech最新的投资者演示文稿（我鼓励所有潜在投资者这样做），我对BioNTech在一年内取得的进步感到震惊，不仅从发展的角度来看——该公司一直有远大的抱负——而且从组织和公关的角度来看。</blockquote> There's no question in my mind that the market still values BioNTech as if it were a pure COVID vaccine play, and any company with a single, $18bn per annum selling asset is highly unlikely to be able to distract investor's attention away from that asset.<blockquote>在我看来，毫无疑问，市场仍然将BioNTech视为纯粹的新冠疫苗业务，任何每年出售180亿美元资产的公司都不太可能将投资者的注意力从该资产上转移开。</blockquote> But BioNtech and its management team are smarter than most, in my view, just like their technology, and it is planning for the long term.<blockquote>但在我看来，BioNtech及其管理团队比大多数人都聪明，就像他们的技术一样，并且正在进行长期规划。</blockquote> Data readouts in oncology - and there ought to be 5 before the end of this year - and progress towards commercialisation of a new infectious disease vaccine - will rapidly become the key yardsticks for assessing the true value of BioNTech shares.<blockquote>肿瘤学数据（今年年底前应该会有5个）以及新型传染病疫苗商业化的进展将迅速成为评估BioNTech股票真实价值的关键标准。</blockquote> There is currently no need for investors to be concerned about BioNtech's share price crashing on negative data readouts from these programs - when there are double-digit billion annual revenues in play - but these programs will increasingly replace Comirnaty sales as the stock markets' weighing machine, and that ought to be good news for fans of mRNA science - of which I am one.<blockquote>目前，投资者没有必要担心BioNtech的股价因这些项目的负面数据而暴跌（当年收入达到两位数十亿美元时），但这些项目将越来越多地取代Comirnaty sales成为股市的称重机器，这对于mRNA科学的粉丝来说应该是个好消息——我就是其中之一。</blockquote> It may take time, but BioNTech represents an exciting buy and hold opportunity for biotech enthusiasts, in my view.<blockquote>这可能需要时间，但在我看来，BioNTech对于生物技术爱好者来说是一个令人兴奋的买入并持有机会。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457813-biontech-stock-price-buoyancy-depends-on-comirnaty-sales-but-long-term-value-on-pipeline-bntx\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BNTX":"BioNTech SE"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457813-biontech-stock-price-buoyancy-depends-on-comirnaty-sales-but-long-term-value-on-pipeline-bntx","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149815025","content_text":"Summary\n\nBioNTech has been a phenomenal success story for investors, delivering a ~1,900% gain on investment since its 2019 IPO.\nSales of its mRNA vaccine Comirnaty will earn the company in excess of $18bn in 2021, management believes - firmly ahead of expectations.\nThese revenues are likely not sustainable, however - I expect them to dip below $10bn from 2022.\nNevertheless, BioNTech has never been about a single vaccine and the pipeline excites.\nmRNA technology is here to stay and BioNTech's pipeline will soon become the key measure for valuing the company. It may take time but a triple-digit billion valuation is a distinct possibility in my view.\n\nPM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nBioNTech (BNTX) shareholders who backed the messenger-RNA pioneer at the time of the Germany based company's IPO, which raised ~$150m at a price of $15, can be well satisfied with a >1,900% gain on investment to date - but is the company still worth backing at current price of $277 per share?\nWhen I last covered BioNTech back in February, I set a share price forecast of ~$200 for BioNTech stock, but that was based on sales of its Comirnaty COVID vaccine - jointly developed with Pfizer (PFE) - reaching ~$7.5bn in 2021.\nReleasing its Q2'21 results in early August, the company reported 6-month revenues of $8.56bn - shattering my expectations - and its share price reached a stunning peak of $388.\nAt the time of writing, shares have fallen back to a price of $277 - discounted by ~29% from their August peak, but with full-year revenues forecast by management to be in the region of $18.5bn, and net profits perhaps reaching >$13.5bn (if we take 6-month net profit figure of $6.8bn and double it), investors will likely look at a forward price to sales ratio of 4x, and forward price to earnings ratio of ~5x, and feel that BioNTech stock continues to look great value.\nEssentially, two factors will determine whether BioNTech shares are worth buying at current price, and also how long investors should think about holding them.\nThe first is the scale of ongoing demand for its COVID vaccine Comirnaty. Sadly, revenues from this source have probably exceeded the market's wildest expectations, with the pandemic refusing to die down, and with booster shots now approved to be administered to over-65's in the US, and to over-50's in the UK, and under consideration for all people over the age of 16 in Europe, there appears to be no set limit to how many Comirnaty shots BioNTech will eventually sell.\nThe second is the migration of the use of messenger-RNA technologies into other therapeutic modalities, to target a broad range of diseases, where it can potentially challenge current standards of care on efficacy and safety.\nOnly in a nightmare scenario will vaccine demand remain at current levels beyond the next 2-3 years, and therefore BioNTech's revenues will not remain at 2021 levels over the long term, unless it can launch new vaccine products targeting e.g. other infectious diseases, oncology, auto-immune, inflammation, regenerative medicines, etc.\nTo that end, BioNTech recently released a 70-slide presentation highlighting its development pipeline, and reporting progress across all the above treatment fields. Not one single mention of its COVID vaccine can be found, illustrating that BioNTech has never, and will never think of itself as a pure COVID vaccine company.\nEven so, it will take time to successfully develop new mRNA therapies in other indications, and success is not guaranteed.\nNew challengers are emerging in the mRNA field, with strong investor backing and ambitious goals - China-based pharma Abogen Biosciences, for example,recently raised > $700m of funding to develop an mRNA COVID vaccine whilst Sanofi (SNY), the French Pharma company with a >$120bn market cap valuation recently splashed out $3.2bn to acquire Translate Bio, and its messenger RNA Technology targeting Cystic Fibrosis and other genetic diseases.\n6 months ago, Moderna (MRNA), BioNTech and CureVac were probably considered the \"Big 3\" mRNA pioneers, but CureVac's failure to successfully develop a COVID vaccine has wiped >50% off of its market value whilst Moderna stock has realized unprecedented highs, trading at a price of $390 at the time of writing, with a market valuation of $157bn.\nThat is a staggeringly high valuation, but as I argued in my last post on BioNTech and in other posts on Moderna itself, that valuation could potentially double again if the company can prove that mRNA technology will work in any therapeutic setting - as it is striving to do.\nI would certainly argue that BioNTech has more in common with Moderna than it does with CureVac - the company will earn a similar volume of revenues in FY21 as Moderna, and yet its market cap of $75bn is half that of Moderna's.\nThat may be due firstly to the market's perception that BioNTech owes much of its success to Pfizer, whilst Moderna is not reliant on a Big Pharma partner, and secondly on the strength of Moderna's non-COVID programs.\nIn the rest of this post I will take a closer look at BioNTech's Covid earnings, and its longer-term development pipeline in order to highlight the short and long-term investment cases.\nMy thesis is that BioNTech is not worth less than half Moderna, and that Moderna itself is potentially undervalued relative to its opportunities to develop mRNA vaccines and therapies in other therapeutic modalities.\nAs such, my feeling is that investors can pick up BioNTech stock at current price and be optimistic of ~30% near-term upside, based on recent developments with Comirnaty, and the introduction of booster shots.\nA dip may follow if COVID revenues begin to slide after 2022, which I expect to happen, and be pronounced, but this ought to be offset by pipeline progress, which suggests to me that BioNTech could maintain a >$100bn market cap, which may even be at the lower end of expectations.\nOutlook for Comirnaty\nPfizer/BioNTech'sCovid vaccine - now known as Comirnaty, is fully approved by the FDA, and used in >130 countries in the fight against Coronavirus.\nIn the first 6 months of 2021, BioNTech and Pfizer shipped >1bn doses of Comirnaty, signed supply contracts to deliver another 2.2bn doses by the end of the year, and committed to supply a further 2bn doses to low and middle-income nations, according to a summation in BioNTech's Q2'21 earnings presentation.\nAlongside an agreement signed with the EU to provide 900m doses, and potentially another 900m - doses that had been earmarked for fulfilment by CureVac before its vaccine failed to achieve the required efficacy in its pivotal trial, with just 47% versus Pfizer / BioNTech's >95% - there are 90m doses going to the US, and potentially 90m more in 2022.\nSince August, however, Comirnaty has received an Emergency Use Authorisation (\"EUA\") for use as a booster vaccine, for individuals 65 years of age and older, and individuals ages 18 through 64 within certain high-risk groups, based on data suggesting that the vaccine \"elicits high neutralization titers against SARS-CoV-2 and all currently tested variants\".\nCovid is simply refusing to go away, with a significant spike in infections, hospitalizations and deaths reported across the past 2 months, according to data from the New York Times.\nJust as it was the first vaccine approved in the US for COVID, Comirnaty is now the first to be approved as a booster shot, and it seems logical that, in time, booster shots will be extended to the entire US population, and populations worldwide. Looking further ahead, it also seems likely that annual or biannual shots will be required as COVID becomes an endemic disease.\nWith that said, I would argue that it is unlikely that BioNTech will replicate its $18bn of sales - which works out at just under 1bn doses - in 2021 in future years.\nAt maximum capacity, Pfizer/BioNTech can manufacture ~2bn doses per annum, so we can be fairly sure that each firms' sales are capped at >$20bn per annum, but it is also likely that both companies average selling price will decrease after 2021, as the vaccine rollout switches from developed, to developing nations.\nArguably, if every global citizen receives 2 vaccinations per annum, there is demand for ~16bn doses per annum, and as a key supplier, BioNTech would have no issues selling 1bn doses per annum. The deals recently done with the EU are not far short of such figures, but they may not be repeatable, and logistically speaking there is little or no chance that any population globally will be able to achieve >50% population vaccination in a single year in my view.\nAs such, I would not expect to see BioNTech earn double-digit billions from Comirnaty sales in any year after 2021, and its profit margins may well narrow after this year - the near 80% profit margin achieved across the first 6 months of 2021 is also simply unsustainable from an economic or ethical viewpoint.\nI would put forward an average figure of ~$8bn per annum for BioNTech's earnings from Comirnaty between 2022 - 2025, for the reasons discussed above, and a profit margin average of ~50%.\nThat gives me a price to sales ratio of ~9.4x and price to earnings ratio of ~19x - not especially attractive, but realistic, and for a company with as much promise as BioNTech, perhaps a strong value proposition, given what may come from its pipeline.\nOutlook for Pipeline\nWhen we think about the fact that neither BioNTech nor Moderna can realistically rely on revenues or profit margins from its COVID vaccine sales being sustained over the long term at current levels, their valuations - $75bn and $153bn respectively - may look too high.\nBut believers in mRNA technology - and why wouldn't anyone be excited by a technology as powerful as mRNA, which can effectively instruct cells to manufacture literally any protein - may feel that both companies are significantly undervalued.\nThe key question, however, is whether each company is able to deliver the hoped for revolution in medicine - personalized vaccines for many/all disease types, tailored to the patients' specific genetic profile - how long it will take, what the risk of failure is, and what will happen to each company's share price in the interim period.\nThe first and most obvious targets are infectious diseases - then oncology, CAR-T cell therapy, immuno-therapies, and then expansion into multiple modalities, covering most disease types that any investor can care to think of.\n12 months ago even, BioNTech's infectious disease pipeline went largely under the radar but emboldened by its success with Comirnaty, BioNTech now boasts vaccines in development for Malaria, Tuberculosis and HIV, 10 mRNA vaccines in clinical development targeting infectious diseases, and an influenza vaccine, jointly developed with Pfizer, which implies that the 2 companies are willing to work together over the long term - perhaps a merger is even a possibility.\nBy the end of this year, BioNTech will deliver 5 trial updates from vaccines targeting solid tumors, leveraging bi-specifics, CD40, and CAR-T cell therapy, and largely targeting solid tumors, initiate 3 Phase 2 trials, targeting melanoma, head and neck cancer, and colorectal cancer, as well as 7 Phase 1 trials, including its influenza vaccine program.\nAll of the company's plans are laid out in its latest investor presentation- collaborations with Pharma powerhouses such as Regeneron (REGN), Genentech (a Roche subsidiary), and Sanofi, as well as Pfizer.\nThere are 15 oncology programs in total, 6 infectious disease vaccines (admittedly still at the preclinical stage), therapies targeting PD-1 / PDL1, the targets of cancer blockbuster drugs such as Bristol Myers Squibb's (BMY) Opdivo and Merck's (MRK) Keytruda, cell therapies, and cytokine inhibitors.\nConclusion\nMy point in relation to both BioNTech and Moderna is that both are increasingly beginning to behave more and more like Big Pharma firms - anticipating that their revenue-generating assets may not have a lengthy shelf life, and understanding that they must deliver new medicines in order to support current valuations over the longer term.\nReviewing BioNtech's latest investor presentation - which I encourage all prospective investors to do - I was struck by the amount of progress BioNTech has made in a single year, and not just from a development perspective - the company has always had grand ambitions - but from an organisational, and PR perspective also.\nThere's no question in my mind that the market still values BioNTech as if it were a pure COVID vaccine play, and any company with a single, $18bn per annum selling asset is highly unlikely to be able to distract investor's attention away from that asset.\nBut BioNtech and its management team are smarter than most, in my view, just like their technology, and it is planning for the long term.\nData readouts in oncology - and there ought to be 5 before the end of this year - and progress towards commercialisation of a new infectious disease vaccine - will rapidly become the key yardsticks for assessing the true value of BioNTech shares.\nThere is currently no need for investors to be concerned about BioNtech's share price crashing on negative data readouts from these programs - when there are double-digit billion annual revenues in play - but these programs will increasingly replace Comirnaty sales as the stock markets' weighing machine, and that ought to be good news for fans of mRNA science - of which I am one.\nIt may take time, but BioNTech represents an exciting buy and hold opportunity for biotech enthusiasts, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BNTX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":989,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/865442253"}