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2021-10-01
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Stock Market’s September Slump Exposes Messy Underside<blockquote>九月份股市暴跌暴露了混乱的底部</blockquote>
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Shares of large, fast-growing companies are heading toward their worst month since the pandemic-fueled selloff of March 2020, and Treasury yields have shot up to their highest level since June.</p><p><blockquote>股市已从历史高点回落。大型快速增长公司的股票正走向自 2020 年 3 月疫情引发的抛售以来最糟糕的一个月，国债收益率已飙升至 6 月以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> It is hardly the sanguine end to the quarter that investors had hoped for. Many money managers say they are heading into the final few months of the year feeling on edge.</p><p><blockquote>这很难像投资者所希望的那样乐观地结束本季度。许多基金经理表示，他们在今年的最后几个月感到紧张。</blockquote></p><p> Central bankers who had thought this year’s rise in inflation would wind up being a short-term phenomenon aren’t sure how long transitory pressures will persist. Strategists who had predicted another strong quarter of economic growth are cutting estimates because of supply-chain bottlenecks and the highly contagious Delta variant of Covid-19. Economic data have also been falling short of expectations.Citigroup’sEconomic Surprise Index, which tracks how much U.S. reports have been exceeding or undershooting estimates, fell this month to its lowest level since June 2020.</p><p><blockquote>央行行长们曾认为今年的通胀上升最终只是一个短期现象，但他们不确定暂时性压力会持续多久。由于供应链瓶颈和 Covid-19 高度传染性的德尔塔变异毒株，曾预测另一个季度经济增长强劲的策略师正在下调预期。经济数据也一直低于预期。花旗集团（Citigroup）的经济意外指数（sEconomic Surprise Index）追踪美国报告超出或低于预期的程度，本月跌至2020年6月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> All told, the S&P 500 is still up 16% for the year and on course to notch a sixth straight quarter of gains. The index is just a few percentage points away from its record close hit in early September.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，标普500今年仍上涨 16%，有望连续第六个季度上涨。该指数距离 9 月初创下的收盘纪录仅差几个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe132ae877a10d2796e4c4542444ac3d\" tg-width=\"419\" tg-height=\"554\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes the narrative is clean and easy,” said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer of Truist Advisory Services. But now, “I feel like you’re having to find opportunities in a market where not everything is moving together anymore.”</p><p><blockquote>“Truist Advisory Services 联席首席投资官基思-勒纳（Keith Lerner）说：”有时，这种说法干净而简单。但现在，“我觉得你必须在一个市场中寻找机会，在这个市场里，一切都不再齐头并进”。</blockquote></p><p> While Mr. Lerner is still betting on stocks rising over the long term, his firm has trimmed its exposure to emerging markets and focused heavily on the U.S., where he expects the economy to be most resilient, even as the global recovery slows.</p><p><blockquote>尽管勒纳仍然押注股市长期上涨，但他的公司已经削减了对新兴市场的投资，并将重点放在美国，他预计美国经济将最具弹性，即使全球复苏放缓。</blockquote></p><p> One of the most vexing issues for investors and analysts over the past few months has been how quickly the market has churned through winners and losers.</p><p><blockquote>过去几个月，投资者和分析师最头疼的问题之一是市场在赢家和输家之间流动的速度有多快。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c023ba2843417b17986cb4d2bcbbf0f\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"700\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>So far this year, companies have been able to post robust profits despite rising costs for raw materials and labor. The floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>今年到目前为止，尽管原材料和劳动力成本上升，但企业仍能够实现强劲的利润。周二纽约证券交易所大厅。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Markets behaved relatively predictably in the first half of the year. Investors favored shares of economically sensitive companies such as banks, manufacturers and airlines and rebuffed relatively pricey technology stocks when it looked as though the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines would help supercharge the economy’s recovery.</p><p><blockquote>上半年市场表现相对可预测。当 Covid-19 疫苗的推出似乎将有助于推动经济复苏时，投资者青睐银行、制造商和航空公司等经济敏感公司的股票，而拒绝相对昂贵的科技股。</blockquote></p><p> This quarter, as the so-called reopening trade stalled, it became harder for investors to pick dominant trades. Technology stocks surged but then took the brunt of market selloffs in early September and this week—putting the S&P 500 Growth Index on track for its biggest monthly pullback since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>本季度，随着所谓的重新开放交易陷入停滞，投资者选择主导交易变得更加困难。科技股飙升，但随后在 9 月初和本周受到市场抛售的冲击，这使得标普500增长指数有望出现自 2020 年 3 月以来最大的月度回调。</blockquote></p><p> The bond market also caught many investors off guard. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note flitted about a narrow range for much of the quarter, only to stage a six-day rise above 1.50% between last week and Tuesday—its biggest such advance since June 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The move came after the Federal Reserve indicated it was ready to begin reversing its pandemic stimulus programs as early as November and considering raising interest rates next year, given a jump in inflation.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场也让许多投资者措手不及。10年期美国国债收益率在本季度的大部分时间里都在窄幅波动，仅在上周至周二之间连续六天上涨超过1.50%，这是自2020年6月以来的最大涨幅。道琼斯市场数据。此前，美联储表示，鉴于通胀飙升，它准备最早于 11 月开始扭转疫情刺激计划，并考虑明年加息。</blockquote></p><p> “Even though there’s all this discussion about the market being resilient, the churn under the surface has shown more weakness,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist of Charles Schwab.</p><p><blockquote>“嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）首席投资策略师利兹-安-桑德斯（Liz Ann Sonders）说：”尽管人们都在谈论市场是否具有弹性，但表面之下的波动却显示出更多的疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Sonders attributed the swift rotations taking place in the market to a bevy of investor worries.</p><p><blockquote>桑德斯女士将市场的快速轮动归因于投资者的一系列担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “You have concerns about the virus, then you add on top of it concerns about the debt ceiling, some arguably more mixed economic data recently, [and] uncertainty about monetary policy,” she said. “I don’t know if we’ll get out of this mode anytime soon.”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”你对病毒感到担忧，再加上对债务上限的担忧，最近一些可以说是喜忧参半的经济数据，[以及]货币政策的不确定性。“我不知道我们是否会很快摆脱这种模式。”</blockquote></p><p> Another issue weighing on investors’ minds: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>另一个困扰投资者的问题是：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> So far this year, companies have been able to post robust profits despite rising costs for raw materials and labor. Earnings for S&P 500 companies have beaten analysts’ estimates by double-digit percentages since the second quarter of 2020, according to Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson. That is compared with a median beat rate of 5% going back to 2008.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，尽管原材料和劳动力成本上升，但企业仍能够实现强劲的利润。摩根士丹利股票策略师 Michael Wilson 表示，自 2020 年第二季度以来，标普500公司的盈利超出了分析师的预期两位数百分比。相比之下，2008 年的中位数击败率为 5%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet with supply-chain disruptions and labor shortages persisting around the country, Mr. Wilson said it is hard to believe companies will be able to maintain that momentum.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于全国各地供应链中断和劳动力短缺持续存在，威尔逊表示，很难相信企业能够保持这种势头。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Between June and September, 224 S&P 500 companies mentioned inflation on their second-quarter earnings calls, according to FactSet. That is the highest number since FactSet began tracking the data in 2010.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 的数据显示，6 月至 9 月期间，有 224 家标普500公司在第二季度收益评级中提到了通货膨胀。这是自 FactSet 于 2010 年开始跟踪数据以来的最高数字。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc010172cb9d8099b1b19971a2037d6\" tg-width=\"443\" tg-height=\"625\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Historically, when a relatively high number of companies have mentioned inflation, profit margins have shrunk, Mr. Wilson said.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊表示，从历史上看，当相对较多的公司提到通货膨胀时，利润率就会缩水。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are left grappling with one big question: How much of that has already been priced into markets?</p><p><blockquote>投资者面临着一个大问题：其中有多少已经被定价到市场中？</blockquote></p><p> “I’m a little concerned about 2022,” said Karyn Cavanaugh, chief investment officer of Carolinas Wealth Management. “When we don’t see the double-digit increases we’re used to for earnings, are the markets going to ask, ‘Hey, what have you done for me lately?’ ”</p><p><blockquote>“卡罗莱纳州财富管理公司首席投资官卡琳-卡瓦诺（Karyn Cavanaugh）说：”我对 2022 年有点担心。“当我们看不到我们习惯的两位数增长时，市场会问，'嘿，你最近为我做了什么？'”</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Cavanaugh has been advising clients to focus on “wide moat stocks”—companies with a strong record of delivering profits regardless of whether growth is slowing or accelerating because they maintain a competitive advantage over their peers.</p><p><blockquote>卡瓦诺女士一直建议客户关注 “宽护城河股票”--无论增长是放缓还是加速，这些公司都有良好的盈利记录，因为它们与同行保持着竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> Given so many potential issues remain unresolved, from debt negotiations and potential changes to the tax code in Washington to the pandemic, Ms. Cavanaugh said she expects the market’s path from here to be bumpy.</p><p><blockquote>卡瓦诺女士说，鉴于许多潜在问题仍未解决，从债务谈判和华盛顿州税法的潜在变化到大流行病，她预计市场今后的道路将是崎岖不平的。</blockquote></p><p> “We could be in for a bit of a grind,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”我们可能会遇到一些麻烦。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Market’s September Slump Exposes Messy Underside<blockquote>九月份股市暴跌暴露了混乱的底部</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-30 23:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Rally hit bump in September, the worst month for S&P 500 since 2020</p><p><blockquote>9 月份涨势飙升，是标普500自 2020 年以来最糟糕的月份</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dc5ed0067d93839f180f3bcbdf51678\" tg-width=\"1173\" tg-height=\"638\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Markets are closing out the quarter on a tumultuous note.</p><p><blockquote>市场以动荡的气氛结束了本季度。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks have pulled back from all-time highs. Shares of large, fast-growing companies are heading toward their worst month since the pandemic-fueled selloff of March 2020, and Treasury yields have shot up to their highest level since June.</p><p><blockquote>股市已从历史高点回落。大型快速增长公司的股票正走向自 2020 年 3 月疫情引发的抛售以来最糟糕的一个月，国债收益率已飙升至 6 月以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> It is hardly the sanguine end to the quarter that investors had hoped for. Many money managers say they are heading into the final few months of the year feeling on edge.</p><p><blockquote>这很难像投资者所希望的那样乐观地结束本季度。许多基金经理表示，他们在今年的最后几个月感到紧张。</blockquote></p><p> Central bankers who had thought this year’s rise in inflation would wind up being a short-term phenomenon aren’t sure how long transitory pressures will persist. Strategists who had predicted another strong quarter of economic growth are cutting estimates because of supply-chain bottlenecks and the highly contagious Delta variant of Covid-19. Economic data have also been falling short of expectations.Citigroup’sEconomic Surprise Index, which tracks how much U.S. reports have been exceeding or undershooting estimates, fell this month to its lowest level since June 2020.</p><p><blockquote>央行行长们曾认为今年的通胀上升最终只是一个短期现象，但他们不确定暂时性压力会持续多久。由于供应链瓶颈和 Covid-19 高度传染性的德尔塔变异毒株，曾预测另一个季度经济增长强劲的策略师正在下调预期。经济数据也一直低于预期。花旗集团（Citigroup）的经济意外指数（sEconomic Surprise Index）追踪美国报告超出或低于预期的程度，本月跌至2020年6月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> All told, the S&P 500 is still up 16% for the year and on course to notch a sixth straight quarter of gains. The index is just a few percentage points away from its record close hit in early September.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，标普500今年仍上涨 16%，有望连续第六个季度上涨。该指数距离 9 月初创下的收盘纪录仅差几个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe132ae877a10d2796e4c4542444ac3d\" tg-width=\"419\" tg-height=\"554\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes the narrative is clean and easy,” said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer of Truist Advisory Services. But now, “I feel like you’re having to find opportunities in a market where not everything is moving together anymore.”</p><p><blockquote>“Truist Advisory Services 联席首席投资官基思-勒纳（Keith Lerner）说：”有时，这种说法干净而简单。但现在，“我觉得你必须在一个市场中寻找机会，在这个市场里，一切都不再齐头并进”。</blockquote></p><p> While Mr. Lerner is still betting on stocks rising over the long term, his firm has trimmed its exposure to emerging markets and focused heavily on the U.S., where he expects the economy to be most resilient, even as the global recovery slows.</p><p><blockquote>尽管勒纳仍然押注股市长期上涨，但他的公司已经削减了对新兴市场的投资，并将重点放在美国，他预计美国经济将最具弹性，即使全球复苏放缓。</blockquote></p><p> One of the most vexing issues for investors and analysts over the past few months has been how quickly the market has churned through winners and losers.</p><p><blockquote>过去几个月，投资者和分析师最头疼的问题之一是市场在赢家和输家之间流动的速度有多快。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c023ba2843417b17986cb4d2bcbbf0f\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"700\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>So far this year, companies have been able to post robust profits despite rising costs for raw materials and labor. The floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>今年到目前为止，尽管原材料和劳动力成本上升，但企业仍能够实现强劲的利润。周二纽约证券交易所大厅。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Markets behaved relatively predictably in the first half of the year. Investors favored shares of economically sensitive companies such as banks, manufacturers and airlines and rebuffed relatively pricey technology stocks when it looked as though the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines would help supercharge the economy’s recovery.</p><p><blockquote>上半年市场表现相对可预测。当 Covid-19 疫苗的推出似乎将有助于推动经济复苏时，投资者青睐银行、制造商和航空公司等经济敏感公司的股票，而拒绝相对昂贵的科技股。</blockquote></p><p> This quarter, as the so-called reopening trade stalled, it became harder for investors to pick dominant trades. Technology stocks surged but then took the brunt of market selloffs in early September and this week—putting the S&P 500 Growth Index on track for its biggest monthly pullback since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>本季度，随着所谓的重新开放交易陷入停滞，投资者选择主导交易变得更加困难。科技股飙升，但随后在 9 月初和本周受到市场抛售的冲击，这使得标普500增长指数有望出现自 2020 年 3 月以来最大的月度回调。</blockquote></p><p> The bond market also caught many investors off guard. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note flitted about a narrow range for much of the quarter, only to stage a six-day rise above 1.50% between last week and Tuesday—its biggest such advance since June 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The move came after the Federal Reserve indicated it was ready to begin reversing its pandemic stimulus programs as early as November and considering raising interest rates next year, given a jump in inflation.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场也让许多投资者措手不及。10年期美国国债收益率在本季度的大部分时间里都在窄幅波动，仅在上周至周二之间连续六天上涨超过1.50%，这是自2020年6月以来的最大涨幅。道琼斯市场数据。此前，美联储表示，鉴于通胀飙升，它准备最早于 11 月开始扭转疫情刺激计划，并考虑明年加息。</blockquote></p><p> “Even though there’s all this discussion about the market being resilient, the churn under the surface has shown more weakness,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist of Charles Schwab.</p><p><blockquote>“嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）首席投资策略师利兹-安-桑德斯（Liz Ann Sonders）说：”尽管人们都在谈论市场是否具有弹性，但表面之下的波动却显示出更多的疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Sonders attributed the swift rotations taking place in the market to a bevy of investor worries.</p><p><blockquote>桑德斯女士将市场的快速轮动归因于投资者的一系列担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “You have concerns about the virus, then you add on top of it concerns about the debt ceiling, some arguably more mixed economic data recently, [and] uncertainty about monetary policy,” she said. “I don’t know if we’ll get out of this mode anytime soon.”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”你对病毒感到担忧，再加上对债务上限的担忧，最近一些可以说是喜忧参半的经济数据，[以及]货币政策的不确定性。“我不知道我们是否会很快摆脱这种模式。”</blockquote></p><p> Another issue weighing on investors’ minds: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>另一个困扰投资者的问题是：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> So far this year, companies have been able to post robust profits despite rising costs for raw materials and labor. Earnings for S&P 500 companies have beaten analysts’ estimates by double-digit percentages since the second quarter of 2020, according to Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson. That is compared with a median beat rate of 5% going back to 2008.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，尽管原材料和劳动力成本上升，但企业仍能够实现强劲的利润。摩根士丹利股票策略师 Michael Wilson 表示，自 2020 年第二季度以来，标普500公司的盈利超出了分析师的预期两位数百分比。相比之下，2008 年的中位数击败率为 5%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet with supply-chain disruptions and labor shortages persisting around the country, Mr. Wilson said it is hard to believe companies will be able to maintain that momentum.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于全国各地供应链中断和劳动力短缺持续存在，威尔逊表示，很难相信企业能够保持这种势头。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Between June and September, 224 S&P 500 companies mentioned inflation on their second-quarter earnings calls, according to FactSet. That is the highest number since FactSet began tracking the data in 2010.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 的数据显示，6 月至 9 月期间，有 224 家标普500公司在第二季度收益评级中提到了通货膨胀。这是自 FactSet 于 2010 年开始跟踪数据以来的最高数字。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc010172cb9d8099b1b19971a2037d6\" tg-width=\"443\" tg-height=\"625\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Historically, when a relatively high number of companies have mentioned inflation, profit margins have shrunk, Mr. Wilson said.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊表示，从历史上看，当相对较多的公司提到通货膨胀时，利润率就会缩水。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are left grappling with one big question: How much of that has already been priced into markets?</p><p><blockquote>投资者面临着一个大问题：其中有多少已经被定价到市场中？</blockquote></p><p> “I’m a little concerned about 2022,” said Karyn Cavanaugh, chief investment officer of Carolinas Wealth Management. “When we don’t see the double-digit increases we’re used to for earnings, are the markets going to ask, ‘Hey, what have you done for me lately?’ ”</p><p><blockquote>“卡罗莱纳州财富管理公司首席投资官卡琳-卡瓦诺（Karyn Cavanaugh）说：”我对 2022 年有点担心。“当我们看不到我们习惯的两位数增长时，市场会问，'嘿，你最近为我做了什么？'”</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Cavanaugh has been advising clients to focus on “wide moat stocks”—companies with a strong record of delivering profits regardless of whether growth is slowing or accelerating because they maintain a competitive advantage over their peers.</p><p><blockquote>卡瓦诺女士一直建议客户关注 “宽护城河股票”--无论增长是放缓还是加速，这些公司都有良好的盈利记录，因为它们与同行保持着竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> Given so many potential issues remain unresolved, from debt negotiations and potential changes to the tax code in Washington to the pandemic, Ms. Cavanaugh said she expects the market’s path from here to be bumpy.</p><p><blockquote>卡瓦诺女士说，鉴于许多潜在问题仍未解决，从债务谈判和华盛顿州税法的潜在变化到大流行病，她预计市场今后的道路将是崎岖不平的。</blockquote></p><p> “We could be in for a bit of a grind,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”我们可能会遇到一些麻烦。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-markets-september-slump-exposes-messy-underside-11632999601?mod=hp_lead_pos2\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-markets-september-slump-exposes-messy-underside-11632999601?mod=hp_lead_pos2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177631732","content_text":"Rally hit bump in September, the worst month for S&P 500 since 2020\n\nMarkets are closing out the quarter on a tumultuous note.\nStocks have pulled back from all-time highs. Shares of large, fast-growing companies are heading toward their worst month since the pandemic-fueled selloff of March 2020, and Treasury yields have shot up to their highest level since June.\nIt is hardly the sanguine end to the quarter that investors had hoped for. Many money managers say they are heading into the final few months of the year feeling on edge.\nCentral bankers who had thought this year’s rise in inflation would wind up being a short-term phenomenon aren’t sure how long transitory pressures will persist. Strategists who had predicted another strong quarter of economic growth are cutting estimates because of supply-chain bottlenecks and the highly contagious Delta variant of Covid-19. Economic data have also been falling short of expectations.Citigroup’sEconomic Surprise Index, which tracks how much U.S. reports have been exceeding or undershooting estimates, fell this month to its lowest level since June 2020.\nAll told, the S&P 500 is still up 16% for the year and on course to notch a sixth straight quarter of gains. The index is just a few percentage points away from its record close hit in early September.\n\n“Sometimes the narrative is clean and easy,” said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer of Truist Advisory Services. But now, “I feel like you’re having to find opportunities in a market where not everything is moving together anymore.”\nWhile Mr. Lerner is still betting on stocks rising over the long term, his firm has trimmed its exposure to emerging markets and focused heavily on the U.S., where he expects the economy to be most resilient, even as the global recovery slows.\nOne of the most vexing issues for investors and analysts over the past few months has been how quickly the market has churned through winners and losers.\nSo far this year, companies have been able to post robust profits despite rising costs for raw materials and labor. The floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday.\nMarkets behaved relatively predictably in the first half of the year. Investors favored shares of economically sensitive companies such as banks, manufacturers and airlines and rebuffed relatively pricey technology stocks when it looked as though the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines would help supercharge the economy’s recovery.\nThis quarter, as the so-called reopening trade stalled, it became harder for investors to pick dominant trades. Technology stocks surged but then took the brunt of market selloffs in early September and this week—putting the S&P 500 Growth Index on track for its biggest monthly pullback since March 2020.\nThe bond market also caught many investors off guard. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note flitted about a narrow range for much of the quarter, only to stage a six-day rise above 1.50% between last week and Tuesday—its biggest such advance since June 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The move came after the Federal Reserve indicated it was ready to begin reversing its pandemic stimulus programs as early as November and considering raising interest rates next year, given a jump in inflation.\n“Even though there’s all this discussion about the market being resilient, the churn under the surface has shown more weakness,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist of Charles Schwab.\nMs. Sonders attributed the swift rotations taking place in the market to a bevy of investor worries.\n“You have concerns about the virus, then you add on top of it concerns about the debt ceiling, some arguably more mixed economic data recently, [and] uncertainty about monetary policy,” she said. “I don’t know if we’ll get out of this mode anytime soon.”\nAnother issue weighing on investors’ minds: inflation.\nSo far this year, companies have been able to post robust profits despite rising costs for raw materials and labor. Earnings for S&P 500 companies have beaten analysts’ estimates by double-digit percentages since the second quarter of 2020, according to Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson. That is compared with a median beat rate of 5% going back to 2008.\nYet with supply-chain disruptions and labor shortages persisting around the country, Mr. Wilson said it is hard to believe companies will be able to maintain that momentum.\nBetween June and September, 224 S&P 500 companies mentioned inflation on their second-quarter earnings calls, according to FactSet. That is the highest number since FactSet began tracking the data in 2010.\n\nHistorically, when a relatively high number of companies have mentioned inflation, profit margins have shrunk, Mr. Wilson said.\nInvestors are left grappling with one big question: How much of that has already been priced into markets?\n“I’m a little concerned about 2022,” said Karyn Cavanaugh, chief investment officer of Carolinas Wealth Management. “When we don’t see the double-digit increases we’re used to for earnings, are the markets going to ask, ‘Hey, what have you done for me lately?’ ”\nMs. Cavanaugh has been advising clients to focus on “wide moat stocks”—companies with a strong record of delivering profits regardless of whether growth is slowing or accelerating because they maintain a competitive advantage over their peers.\nGiven so many potential issues remain unresolved, from debt negotiations and potential changes to the tax code in Washington to the pandemic, Ms. Cavanaugh said she expects the market’s path from here to be bumpy.\n“We could be in for a bit of a grind,” she said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":831,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/864911324"}
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