Ahvi
2021-10-24
Fascinating
Intel: Good Value Or Value Trap?<blockquote>英特尔：良好的价值还是价值陷阱？</blockquote>
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(INTC) investors over the past few years.</p><p><blockquote>过去几年，英特尔公司(INTC)投资者的处境相当艰难。</blockquote></p><p> It seems like every time the sun comes out...there is another storm right around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>好像每次太阳出来......又有一场暴风雨即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> As highlighted on the earnings call last night, the next \"storm\" brewing for Intel is continued supply chain issues (component shortages in the PC business) and reduced near-term profitability from rising capital expenditure needs, which has sent the stock plummeting 11% this morning into the abyss.</p><p><blockquote>正如昨晚财报看涨期权所强调的那样，英特尔酝酿的下一场“风暴”是持续的供应链问题（PC业务的零部件短缺）以及资本支出需求上升导致的近期盈利能力下降，这导致该股暴跌11%今天早上坠入深渊。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bd612f6f25b6e86d7a72b38440d513f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, buying the dips has actually been pretty lucrative in the recent past...if, of course, you were lucky enough to fade the rallies.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在最近的过去，逢低买入实际上是相当有利可图的……当然，如果你足够幸运，可以淡化涨势。</blockquote></p><p> To be fair, Intel has had its fair share of challenges this year, despite general tailwinds in the industry (i.e., chip demand far outpacing supply).</p><p><blockquote>公平地说，尽管行业普遍有利（即芯片需求远远超过供应），但英特尔今年仍面临着相当多的挑战。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Intel has had some well-documented manufacturing blunders that have caused major delays and loss of some market share...mainly to Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，英特尔犯了一些有据可查的制造错误，导致了重大延误和一些市场份额的损失……主要是超微设备公司（AMD）。</blockquote></p><p> This has triggered concern amongst investors that the stock may be a potential \"value trap\" now.</p><p><blockquote>这引发了投资者的担忧，即该股现在可能是一个潜在的“价值陷阱”。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, Intel is dedicated to spending $25 billion to $28 billion in 2022 and just broke ground on some new fabs.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，英特尔致力于在2022年花费250亿至280亿美元，并且刚刚破土动工建设了一些新晶圆厂。</blockquote></p><p> Personally, I don't think we are anywhere near peak demand for chips and I believe that Intel's fabrication capabilities are (and will continue to be) a huge advantage for the company for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我认为我们还没有接近芯片需求的峰值，我相信英特尔的制造能力在未来几年是（并将继续是）该公司的巨大优势。</blockquote></p><p> So how can we structure a trade to take advantage of the upside potential in the stock (after this pullback) while also protecting ourselves from more near-term downside (if any)?</p><p><blockquote>那么，我们如何构建交易来利用股票的上涨潜力（在这次回调之后），同时保护自己免受近期更多下跌（如果有的话）的影响呢？</blockquote></p><p> <b>It's a perfect situation for a \"Triple Play\" trade!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这是一个“三网融合”交易的完美局面！</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel Corp.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sector/Industry:</b>Technology/Semiconductors</p><p><blockquote><b>部门/行业：</b>科技/半导体</blockquote></p><p> Intel is the world's largest chipmaker. It designs and manufactures microprocessors for the global personal computer and data center markets. Intel pioneered the x86 architecture for microprocessors. It was the prime proponent of Moore's Law for advances in semiconductor manufacturing, though the firm has recently faced manufacturing delays. While Intel's server processor business has benefited from the shift to the cloud, the firm has also been expanding into new adjacencies as the personal computer market has stagnated. These include areas such as the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and automotive. Intel has been active on the merger and acquisitions front, acquiring Altera, Mobileye, and Habana Labs in order to bolster these efforts in non-PC arenas. <i>Source: YCharts</i></p><p><blockquote>英特尔是全球最大的芯片制造商。它为全球个人电脑和数据中心市场设计和制造微处理器。英特尔开创了微处理器的x86架构。它是半导体制造进步摩尔定律的主要支持者，尽管该公司最近面临制造延误。虽然英特尔的服务器处理器业务受益于向云的转变，但随着个人电脑市场停滞不前，该公司也一直在向新的领域扩张。其中包括物联网、人工智能和汽车等领域。英特尔在并购方面一直很活跃，收购了Altera、Mobileye和Habana Labs，以加强这些在非PC领域的努力。<i>资料来源：YCharts</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation/Upside Potential</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值/上涨潜力</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel looks extremely attractive from a valuation standpoint and is currently trading at a decent discount to all of its long-term valuation metrics (hence the high Value Ranking of 10).</p><p><blockquote>从估值的角度来看，英特尔看起来极具吸引力，目前的交易价格相对于其所有长期估值指标都有相当大的折扣（因此价值排名为10）。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Intel is trading at a nice discount to its historical P/E multiple on a forward basis (10.6x 2021 earnings).<i>Note that the company actually just increased its guidance for fiscal 2021 earnings to $5.28 per share</i>.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，英特尔的预期市盈率较其历史市盈率（2021年收益的10.6倍）有很大折扣。<i>请注意，该公司实际上刚刚将2021财年收益指引上调至每股5.28美元</i>.</blockquote></p><p> That said, as supply chain worries decrease over time, we definitely think there could be some room for margin expansion in the future.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，随着供应链担忧随着时间的推移而减少，我们绝对认为未来可能有一些利润率扩张的空间。</blockquote></p><p> If you put just a 12x-14x multiple on consensus forward earnings of $5.28 per share for FYE 2021, that would equate to a $63.00- $73.00 stock price (representing 25%-45% upside from current levels).</p><p><blockquote>如果您对2021财年每股5.28美元的共识预期收益仅进行12-14倍的倍数，则相当于股价为63.00-73.00美元（较当前水平上涨25%-45%）。</blockquote></p><p> Although it probably won't get there in a straight line...</p><p><blockquote>虽然它可能不会直线到达那里...</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Triple Play\" Trade Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“三网融合”贸易分析</b></blockquote></p><p> A \"Triple Play\" trade involves simultaneously selling a cash-secured put and a covered call on a stock that you own.</p><p><blockquote>“三网融合”交易涉及同时出售您拥有的股票的现金担保看跌期权和备兑看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e3af23e0208929d569a6e62a12a9607\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：期权收入顾问</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Note that if you don't currently own INTC stock, you will want to buy it before you write the covered call.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，如果您目前不拥有INTC股票，您会希望在撰写担保看涨期权之前购买它。</blockquote></p><p> This trade will allow you to take advantage of the upside potential in the stock while also protecting some of the near-term downside (if any).</p><p><blockquote>这种交易将使您能够利用股票的上涨潜力，同时也保护一些近期的下跌（如果有的话）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Step 1: Sell Cash-Secured Puts (50% of position size)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第1步：卖出现金担保看跌期权（头寸规模的50%）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The first step of the Triple Play trade is to sell a cash-secured put on the stock for 50% of your target position size. For example, if you wanted to own 400 shares of INTC... you would sell 2 cash-secured put contract, which represents 200 shares of stock.</p><p><blockquote>三网融合交易的第一步是以目标头寸规模的50%出售股票的现金担保看跌期权。例如，如果您想拥有400股INTC股票...您将出售2份现金担保看跌合约，代表200股股票。</blockquote></p><p> The three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:</p><p><blockquote>在分析现金担保看跌交易时，我们会考虑三个主要数据点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Premium Yield % (or Average Monthly Yield %): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).<i>Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.</i></li> <li>Margin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.</li> <li>Delta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.</li> </ul> <i>Note that there's always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>溢价收益率%（或平均月收益率%）：假设期权到期时一文不值（价外）的预期资本回报率的衡量标准。<i>假设期权完全以现金抵押。</i></li><li>安全边际%：下行保护的衡量标准或标的股票可能下跌但仍能让您在期权交易中实现收支平衡的百分比。</li><li>Delta：很好地代表看跌期权以价内结束的概率。</li></ul><i>请注意，保费收益率和安全边际之间总是呈负相关：给定执行月份的保费收益率越高，安全边际越低。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Investors always should be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. Selling CSPs can be adapted to suit your needs.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>投资者应该始终对自己的风险承受能力诚实。销售CSP可以根据您的需求进行调整。</i></blockquote></p><p> As discussed in the video, we like the $45.00-$50.00 range for INTC in the near term. So we like the following cash-secured put:</p><p><blockquote>正如视频中所讨论的，我们喜欢INTC短期内的45.00美元至50.00美元的范围。因此，我们喜欢以下现金担保看跌期权：</blockquote></p><p> <i><b>INTC Nov 19th $47.50.00 Put (28 days until expiration)</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>INTC 11月19日$47.50.00看跌期权（距离到期28天）</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Option Premium: ~$0.58 premium</li> <li>Average Monthly Yield %: 1.3% (15.6% annualized)</li> <li>Margin-of-Safety %: 4.2%</li> <li>Delta: 28</li> </ul> <b>Step 2: Buy the Stock (50% of position size)</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>期权溢价：约0.58美元溢价</li><li>平均月收益率%：1.3%（年化15.6%）</li><li>安全裕度%：4.2%</li><li>德尔塔：28</li></ul><b>第二步：买入股票（头寸规模的50%）</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Note: At the time of publication, INTC was trading at $49.60. If you already own the stock, you can skip to Step 3.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>注：截至发稿时，INTC的交易价格为49.60美元。如果您已经拥有该股票，您可以跳到第3步。</i></blockquote></p><p> The second step of the Triple Play is to buy the stock (50% of your target position size). For example, if you wanted to own 400 shares of INTC... you would buy 200 shares of stock.</p><p><blockquote>三网融合的第二步是买入股票（目标持仓规模的50%）。例如，如果您想拥有400股INTC股票...你会买200股股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Step 3: Sell Covered Calls On Your Stock Position (*optional*)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第3步：出售股票头寸的备兑评级（*可选*）</b></blockquote></p><p> A covered call strategy will help generate some short-term income, maintain some upside exposure, and mitigate some downside risk.</p><p><blockquote>备兑看涨期权策略将有助于产生一些短期收入，维持一些上行风险，并减轻一些下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> With a covered call, you are agreeing to sell your stock at a higher price (your call option strike price) but you get to keep your call option premium either way.</p><p><blockquote>有了备兑看涨期权，您同意以更高的价格（您的看涨期权期权执行价格）出售您的股票，但无论如何您都可以保留您的看涨期权期权溢价。</blockquote></p><p> As discussed in the video, since we like the upside potential in the near term with INTC, you will want to give yourself some room for the stock to run.<b>So we would actually recommend waiting for the stock to trade a little higher before selling covered calls.</b></p><p><blockquote>正如视频中所讨论的，由于我们喜欢INTC近期的上涨潜力，因此您需要给自己一些股票运行的空间。<b>因此，我们实际上建议等待股票交易价格略高，然后再出售备兑评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> That said, if you wanted to execute the covered calls today, I would certainly consider taking less premium income to preserve more potential upside profit. For example, the $53.00 call would give you an extra 0.5% of income per month (6.0% annualized)...which would essentially triple your dividend yield on the stock!</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，如果您今天想执行承保的评级，我肯定会考虑减少保费收入以保留更多潜在的上行利润。例如，53.00美元的看涨期权将为您每月额外提供0.5%的收入（年化6.0%）...这基本上将使您的股票股息收益率增加两倍！</blockquote></p><p> <i><b>INTC Nov 19th $53.00 Call (28 days until expiration)</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>INTC 11月19日53.00美元看涨期权（距离到期还有28天）</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Option Premium: ~$0.25 premium</li> <li>Average Monthly Yield %: 0.5% (6.0% annualized)</li> <li>Upside Profit %: 7.4%</li> <li>Delta: 15</li> </ul> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>期权溢价：约0.25美元溢价</li><li>平均月收益率%：0.5%（年化6.0%）</li><li>上升利润百分比：7.4%</li><li>德尔塔：15</li></ul><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> This Triple Play trade will allow you to take advantage of the upside potential in INTC stock while also giving you some downside cushion if shares trade lower in the near term. As the covered calls and cash-secured puts expire, you can rinse and repeat the Triple Play trade!</p><p><blockquote>这种三网融合交易将使您能够利用INTC股票的上涨潜力，同时如果股价短期走低，也可以为您提供一些下行缓冲。当备兑评级和现金担保看跌期权到期时，您可以冲洗并重复三网融合交易！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel: Good Value Or Value Trap?<blockquote>英特尔：良好的价值还是价值陷阱？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel: Good Value Or Value Trap?<blockquote>英特尔：良好的价值还是价值陷阱？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-24 09:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Intel had a mixed earnings report that sent some investors running for the hills.</li> <li>The company beat earnings and actually raised guidance for 2021, but they signaled that supply chain issues remain and profitability in 2022 will be lower.</li> <li>After the sell-off, is Intel a good value or a value trap?</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02609041d90c055d66b217f06706d28\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>英特尔的盈利报告好坏参半，让一些投资者纷纷逃亡。</li><li>该公司的盈利超出预期，实际上提高了2021年的指引，但他们暗示供应链问题仍然存在，2022年的盈利能力将会较低。</li><li>抛售之后，英特尔是好价值还是价值陷阱？</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The waters have been pretty rough for Intel Corp. (INTC) investors over the past few years.</p><p><blockquote>过去几年，英特尔公司(INTC)投资者的处境相当艰难。</blockquote></p><p> It seems like every time the sun comes out...there is another storm right around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>好像每次太阳出来......又有一场暴风雨即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> As highlighted on the earnings call last night, the next \"storm\" brewing for Intel is continued supply chain issues (component shortages in the PC business) and reduced near-term profitability from rising capital expenditure needs, which has sent the stock plummeting 11% this morning into the abyss.</p><p><blockquote>正如昨晚财报看涨期权所强调的那样，英特尔酝酿的下一场“风暴”是持续的供应链问题（PC业务的零部件短缺）以及资本支出需求上升导致的近期盈利能力下降，这导致该股暴跌11%今天早上坠入深渊。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bd612f6f25b6e86d7a72b38440d513f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, buying the dips has actually been pretty lucrative in the recent past...if, of course, you were lucky enough to fade the rallies.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在最近的过去，逢低买入实际上是相当有利可图的……当然，如果你足够幸运，可以淡化涨势。</blockquote></p><p> To be fair, Intel has had its fair share of challenges this year, despite general tailwinds in the industry (i.e., chip demand far outpacing supply).</p><p><blockquote>公平地说，尽管行业普遍有利（即芯片需求远远超过供应），但英特尔今年仍面临着相当多的挑战。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Intel has had some well-documented manufacturing blunders that have caused major delays and loss of some market share...mainly to Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，英特尔犯了一些有据可查的制造错误，导致了重大延误和一些市场份额的损失……主要是超微设备公司（AMD）。</blockquote></p><p> This has triggered concern amongst investors that the stock may be a potential \"value trap\" now.</p><p><blockquote>这引发了投资者的担忧，即该股现在可能是一个潜在的“价值陷阱”。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, Intel is dedicated to spending $25 billion to $28 billion in 2022 and just broke ground on some new fabs.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，英特尔致力于在2022年花费250亿至280亿美元，并且刚刚破土动工建设了一些新晶圆厂。</blockquote></p><p> Personally, I don't think we are anywhere near peak demand for chips and I believe that Intel's fabrication capabilities are (and will continue to be) a huge advantage for the company for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我认为我们还没有接近芯片需求的峰值，我相信英特尔的制造能力在未来几年是（并将继续是）该公司的巨大优势。</blockquote></p><p> So how can we structure a trade to take advantage of the upside potential in the stock (after this pullback) while also protecting ourselves from more near-term downside (if any)?</p><p><blockquote>那么，我们如何构建交易来利用股票的上涨潜力（在这次回调之后），同时保护自己免受近期更多下跌（如果有的话）的影响呢？</blockquote></p><p> <b>It's a perfect situation for a \"Triple Play\" trade!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这是一个“三网融合”交易的完美局面！</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel Corp.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sector/Industry:</b>Technology/Semiconductors</p><p><blockquote><b>部门/行业：</b>科技/半导体</blockquote></p><p> Intel is the world's largest chipmaker. It designs and manufactures microprocessors for the global personal computer and data center markets. Intel pioneered the x86 architecture for microprocessors. It was the prime proponent of Moore's Law for advances in semiconductor manufacturing, though the firm has recently faced manufacturing delays. While Intel's server processor business has benefited from the shift to the cloud, the firm has also been expanding into new adjacencies as the personal computer market has stagnated. These include areas such as the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and automotive. Intel has been active on the merger and acquisitions front, acquiring Altera, Mobileye, and Habana Labs in order to bolster these efforts in non-PC arenas. <i>Source: YCharts</i></p><p><blockquote>英特尔是全球最大的芯片制造商。它为全球个人电脑和数据中心市场设计和制造微处理器。英特尔开创了微处理器的x86架构。它是半导体制造进步摩尔定律的主要支持者，尽管该公司最近面临制造延误。虽然英特尔的服务器处理器业务受益于向云的转变，但随着个人电脑市场停滞不前，该公司也一直在向新的领域扩张。其中包括物联网、人工智能和汽车等领域。英特尔在并购方面一直很活跃，收购了Altera、Mobileye和Habana Labs，以加强这些在非PC领域的努力。<i>资料来源：YCharts</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation/Upside Potential</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值/上涨潜力</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel looks extremely attractive from a valuation standpoint and is currently trading at a decent discount to all of its long-term valuation metrics (hence the high Value Ranking of 10).</p><p><blockquote>从估值的角度来看，英特尔看起来极具吸引力，目前的交易价格相对于其所有长期估值指标都有相当大的折扣（因此价值排名为10）。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Intel is trading at a nice discount to its historical P/E multiple on a forward basis (10.6x 2021 earnings).<i>Note that the company actually just increased its guidance for fiscal 2021 earnings to $5.28 per share</i>.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，英特尔的预期市盈率较其历史市盈率（2021年收益的10.6倍）有很大折扣。<i>请注意，该公司实际上刚刚将2021财年收益指引上调至每股5.28美元</i>.</blockquote></p><p> That said, as supply chain worries decrease over time, we definitely think there could be some room for margin expansion in the future.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，随着供应链担忧随着时间的推移而减少，我们绝对认为未来可能有一些利润率扩张的空间。</blockquote></p><p> If you put just a 12x-14x multiple on consensus forward earnings of $5.28 per share for FYE 2021, that would equate to a $63.00- $73.00 stock price (representing 25%-45% upside from current levels).</p><p><blockquote>如果您对2021财年每股5.28美元的共识预期收益仅进行12-14倍的倍数，则相当于股价为63.00-73.00美元（较当前水平上涨25%-45%）。</blockquote></p><p> Although it probably won't get there in a straight line...</p><p><blockquote>虽然它可能不会直线到达那里...</blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Triple Play\" Trade Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“三网融合”贸易分析</b></blockquote></p><p> A \"Triple Play\" trade involves simultaneously selling a cash-secured put and a covered call on a stock that you own.</p><p><blockquote>“三网融合”交易涉及同时出售您拥有的股票的现金担保看跌期权和备兑看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e3af23e0208929d569a6e62a12a9607\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：期权收入顾问</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Note that if you don't currently own INTC stock, you will want to buy it before you write the covered call.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，如果您目前不拥有INTC股票，您会希望在撰写担保看涨期权之前购买它。</blockquote></p><p> This trade will allow you to take advantage of the upside potential in the stock while also protecting some of the near-term downside (if any).</p><p><blockquote>这种交易将使您能够利用股票的上涨潜力，同时也保护一些近期的下跌（如果有的话）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Step 1: Sell Cash-Secured Puts (50% of position size)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第1步：卖出现金担保看跌期权（头寸规模的50%）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The first step of the Triple Play trade is to sell a cash-secured put on the stock for 50% of your target position size. For example, if you wanted to own 400 shares of INTC... you would sell 2 cash-secured put contract, which represents 200 shares of stock.</p><p><blockquote>三网融合交易的第一步是以目标头寸规模的50%出售股票的现金担保看跌期权。例如，如果您想拥有400股INTC股票...您将出售2份现金担保看跌合约，代表200股股票。</blockquote></p><p> The three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:</p><p><blockquote>在分析现金担保看跌交易时，我们会考虑三个主要数据点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Premium Yield % (or Average Monthly Yield %): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).<i>Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.</i></li> <li>Margin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.</li> <li>Delta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.</li> </ul> <i>Note that there's always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>溢价收益率%（或平均月收益率%）：假设期权到期时一文不值（价外）的预期资本回报率的衡量标准。<i>假设期权完全以现金抵押。</i></li><li>安全边际%：下行保护的衡量标准或标的股票可能下跌但仍能让您在期权交易中实现收支平衡的百分比。</li><li>Delta：很好地代表看跌期权以价内结束的概率。</li></ul><i>请注意，保费收益率和安全边际之间总是呈负相关：给定执行月份的保费收益率越高，安全边际越低。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Investors always should be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. Selling CSPs can be adapted to suit your needs.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>投资者应该始终对自己的风险承受能力诚实。销售CSP可以根据您的需求进行调整。</i></blockquote></p><p> As discussed in the video, we like the $45.00-$50.00 range for INTC in the near term. So we like the following cash-secured put:</p><p><blockquote>正如视频中所讨论的，我们喜欢INTC短期内的45.00美元至50.00美元的范围。因此，我们喜欢以下现金担保看跌期权：</blockquote></p><p> <i><b>INTC Nov 19th $47.50.00 Put (28 days until expiration)</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>INTC 11月19日$47.50.00看跌期权（距离到期28天）</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Option Premium: ~$0.58 premium</li> <li>Average Monthly Yield %: 1.3% (15.6% annualized)</li> <li>Margin-of-Safety %: 4.2%</li> <li>Delta: 28</li> </ul> <b>Step 2: Buy the Stock (50% of position size)</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>期权溢价：约0.58美元溢价</li><li>平均月收益率%：1.3%（年化15.6%）</li><li>安全裕度%：4.2%</li><li>德尔塔：28</li></ul><b>第二步：买入股票（头寸规模的50%）</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Note: At the time of publication, INTC was trading at $49.60. If you already own the stock, you can skip to Step 3.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>注：截至发稿时，INTC的交易价格为49.60美元。如果您已经拥有该股票，您可以跳到第3步。</i></blockquote></p><p> The second step of the Triple Play is to buy the stock (50% of your target position size). For example, if you wanted to own 400 shares of INTC... you would buy 200 shares of stock.</p><p><blockquote>三网融合的第二步是买入股票（目标持仓规模的50%）。例如，如果您想拥有400股INTC股票...你会买200股股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Step 3: Sell Covered Calls On Your Stock Position (*optional*)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第3步：出售股票头寸的备兑评级（*可选*）</b></blockquote></p><p> A covered call strategy will help generate some short-term income, maintain some upside exposure, and mitigate some downside risk.</p><p><blockquote>备兑看涨期权策略将有助于产生一些短期收入，维持一些上行风险，并减轻一些下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> With a covered call, you are agreeing to sell your stock at a higher price (your call option strike price) but you get to keep your call option premium either way.</p><p><blockquote>有了备兑看涨期权，您同意以更高的价格（您的看涨期权期权执行价格）出售您的股票，但无论如何您都可以保留您的看涨期权期权溢价。</blockquote></p><p> As discussed in the video, since we like the upside potential in the near term with INTC, you will want to give yourself some room for the stock to run.<b>So we would actually recommend waiting for the stock to trade a little higher before selling covered calls.</b></p><p><blockquote>正如视频中所讨论的，由于我们喜欢INTC近期的上涨潜力，因此您需要给自己一些股票运行的空间。<b>因此，我们实际上建议等待股票交易价格略高，然后再出售备兑评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> That said, if you wanted to execute the covered calls today, I would certainly consider taking less premium income to preserve more potential upside profit. For example, the $53.00 call would give you an extra 0.5% of income per month (6.0% annualized)...which would essentially triple your dividend yield on the stock!</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，如果您今天想执行承保的评级，我肯定会考虑减少保费收入以保留更多潜在的上行利润。例如，53.00美元的看涨期权将为您每月额外提供0.5%的收入（年化6.0%）...这基本上将使您的股票股息收益率增加两倍！</blockquote></p><p> <i><b>INTC Nov 19th $53.00 Call (28 days until expiration)</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>INTC 11月19日53.00美元看涨期权（距离到期还有28天）</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Option Premium: ~$0.25 premium</li> <li>Average Monthly Yield %: 0.5% (6.0% annualized)</li> <li>Upside Profit %: 7.4%</li> <li>Delta: 15</li> </ul> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>期权溢价：约0.25美元溢价</li><li>平均月收益率%：0.5%（年化6.0%）</li><li>上升利润百分比：7.4%</li><li>德尔塔：15</li></ul><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> This Triple Play trade will allow you to take advantage of the upside potential in INTC stock while also giving you some downside cushion if shares trade lower in the near term. As the covered calls and cash-secured puts expire, you can rinse and repeat the Triple Play trade!</p><p><blockquote>这种三网融合交易将使您能够利用INTC股票的上涨潜力，同时如果股价短期走低，也可以为您提供一些下行缓冲。当备兑评级和现金担保看跌期权到期时，您可以冲洗并重复三网融合交易！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461530-intel-intc-stock-good-value-or-value-trap\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461530-intel-intc-stock-good-value-or-value-trap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100055241","content_text":"Summary\n\nIntel had a mixed earnings report that sent some investors running for the hills.\nThe company beat earnings and actually raised guidance for 2021, but they signaled that supply chain issues remain and profitability in 2022 will be lower.\nAfter the sell-off, is Intel a good value or a value trap?\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe waters have been pretty rough for Intel Corp. (INTC) investors over the past few years.\nIt seems like every time the sun comes out...there is another storm right around the corner.\nAs highlighted on the earnings call last night, the next \"storm\" brewing for Intel is continued supply chain issues (component shortages in the PC business) and reduced near-term profitability from rising capital expenditure needs, which has sent the stock plummeting 11% this morning into the abyss.\n\nHowever, buying the dips has actually been pretty lucrative in the recent past...if, of course, you were lucky enough to fade the rallies.\nTo be fair, Intel has had its fair share of challenges this year, despite general tailwinds in the industry (i.e., chip demand far outpacing supply).\nSpecifically, Intel has had some well-documented manufacturing blunders that have caused major delays and loss of some market share...mainly to Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).\nThis has triggered concern amongst investors that the stock may be a potential \"value trap\" now.\nAll that said, Intel is dedicated to spending $25 billion to $28 billion in 2022 and just broke ground on some new fabs.\nPersonally, I don't think we are anywhere near peak demand for chips and I believe that Intel's fabrication capabilities are (and will continue to be) a huge advantage for the company for years to come.\nSo how can we structure a trade to take advantage of the upside potential in the stock (after this pullback) while also protecting ourselves from more near-term downside (if any)?\nIt's a perfect situation for a \"Triple Play\" trade!\nIntel Corp.\nSector/Industry:Technology/Semiconductors\n\n Intel is the world's largest chipmaker. It designs and manufactures microprocessors for the global personal computer and data center markets. Intel pioneered the x86 architecture for microprocessors. It was the prime proponent of Moore's Law for advances in semiconductor manufacturing, though the firm has recently faced manufacturing delays. While Intel's server processor business has benefited from the shift to the cloud, the firm has also been expanding into new adjacencies as the personal computer market has stagnated. These include areas such as the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and automotive. Intel has been active on the merger and acquisitions front, acquiring Altera, Mobileye, and Habana Labs in order to bolster these efforts in non-PC arenas.\n\nSource: YCharts\nValuation/Upside Potential\nIntel looks extremely attractive from a valuation standpoint and is currently trading at a decent discount to all of its long-term valuation metrics (hence the high Value Ranking of 10).\nSpecifically, Intel is trading at a nice discount to its historical P/E multiple on a forward basis (10.6x 2021 earnings).Note that the company actually just increased its guidance for fiscal 2021 earnings to $5.28 per share.\nThat said, as supply chain worries decrease over time, we definitely think there could be some room for margin expansion in the future.\nIf you put just a 12x-14x multiple on consensus forward earnings of $5.28 per share for FYE 2021, that would equate to a $63.00- $73.00 stock price (representing 25%-45% upside from current levels).\nAlthough it probably won't get there in a straight line...\n\"Triple Play\" Trade Analysis\nA \"Triple Play\" trade involves simultaneously selling a cash-secured put and a covered call on a stock that you own.\nSource: Option Income Advisor\nNote that if you don't currently own INTC stock, you will want to buy it before you write the covered call.\nThis trade will allow you to take advantage of the upside potential in the stock while also protecting some of the near-term downside (if any).\nStep 1: Sell Cash-Secured Puts (50% of position size)\nThe first step of the Triple Play trade is to sell a cash-secured put on the stock for 50% of your target position size. For example, if you wanted to own 400 shares of INTC... you would sell 2 cash-secured put contract, which represents 200 shares of stock.\nThe three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:\n\nPremium Yield % (or Average Monthly Yield %): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.\nMargin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.\nDelta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.\n\nNote that there's always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.\nInvestors always should be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. Selling CSPs can be adapted to suit your needs.\nAs discussed in the video, we like the $45.00-$50.00 range for INTC in the near term. So we like the following cash-secured put:\nINTC Nov 19th $47.50.00 Put (28 days until expiration)\n\nOption Premium: ~$0.58 premium\nAverage Monthly Yield %: 1.3% (15.6% annualized)\nMargin-of-Safety %: 4.2%\nDelta: 28\n\nStep 2: Buy the Stock (50% of position size)\nNote: At the time of publication, INTC was trading at $49.60. If you already own the stock, you can skip to Step 3.\nThe second step of the Triple Play is to buy the stock (50% of your target position size). For example, if you wanted to own 400 shares of INTC... you would buy 200 shares of stock.\nStep 3: Sell Covered Calls On Your Stock Position (*optional*)\nA covered call strategy will help generate some short-term income, maintain some upside exposure, and mitigate some downside risk.\nWith a covered call, you are agreeing to sell your stock at a higher price (your call option strike price) but you get to keep your call option premium either way.\nAs discussed in the video, since we like the upside potential in the near term with INTC, you will want to give yourself some room for the stock to run.So we would actually recommend waiting for the stock to trade a little higher before selling covered calls.\nThat said, if you wanted to execute the covered calls today, I would certainly consider taking less premium income to preserve more potential upside profit. For example, the $53.00 call would give you an extra 0.5% of income per month (6.0% annualized)...which would essentially triple your dividend yield on the stock!\nINTC Nov 19th $53.00 Call (28 days until expiration)\n\nOption Premium: ~$0.25 premium\nAverage Monthly Yield %: 0.5% (6.0% annualized)\nUpside Profit %: 7.4%\nDelta: 15\n\nConclusion\nThis Triple Play trade will allow you to take advantage of the upside potential in INTC stock while also giving you some downside cushion if shares trade lower in the near term. As the covered calls and cash-secured puts expire, you can rinse and repeat the Triple Play trade!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1363,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/858586996"}
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