哥们
2021-10-25
永远不要小瞧正在突飞猛进的公司
Sea: Don't Be Caught Holding The Hot Potato<blockquote>Sea：不要被抓到拿着烫手山芋</blockquote>
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Few pandemic investments have been as fortuitous as Sea. Prior to the pandemic, this little-known Singaporean internet stock was trading at just $50 per share. Now, as the pandemic has \"activated\" growth in each of Sea's three key segments: online gaming, e-commerce, and online payments - shares of Sea sit above $350, having risen ~7x since the start of the pandemic and nearly ~2x year to date through 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很难对Sea(SE)采取逆向负面立场，但我仍然坚信这家东南亚互联网集团的发展太快了，至少相对于其基本面而言是这样。很少有流行病投资像Sea那样偶然。在疫情之前，这只鲜为人知的新加坡互联网股票的交易价格仅为每股50美元。现在，随着疫情“激活”了Sea三个关键领域的增长：在线游戏、电子商务和在线支付，Sea的股价已超过350美元，自疫情开始以来已上涨约7倍，近2倍到2021年。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da4abad91139d60d01f334013aa4c8c4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Everyone loves a winner, especially in this year's stock market. But given overall market jitters and a recent September/October correction in growth stocks, we have to ask:<b>does Sea really have upside left?</b></p><p><blockquote>每个人都喜欢赢家，尤其是在今年的股市中。但考虑到整体市场紧张情绪以及成长型股票最近9月/10月的调整，我们不得不问：<b>Sea真的还有上升空间吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> I continue to retain my <b>neutral</b> opinion on Sea. I do see the appeal: yeah, major market has an internet e-commerce king (Amazon (AMZN) in the U.S., Alibaba (BABA) in China), and Southeast Asia's most likely winner is Sea. I don't doubt that this stock will continue to be a heavyweight five years down the line. But I'm looking at the next 1-2 year timeframe, and I think the stock has already gotten ahead of itself and won't be able to meaningfully outperform in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>我继续保留我的<b>中立的</b>对海洋的看法。我确实看到了吸引力：是的，主要市场有一个互联网电子商务之王（美国的亚马逊（AMZN），中国的阿里巴巴-SW（BABA）），东南亚最有可能的赢家是Sea。我毫不怀疑这只股票五年后将继续成为重量级股票。但我着眼于未来1-2年的时间框架，我认为该股已经超前了，短期内无法大幅跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at valuation; at current share prices near $355, Sea trades at a market cap of $196.2 billion, already making it a mega-cap that exceeds the size of many of the Dow 30 components. After netting off the $5.89 billion of cash and $1.28 billion of convertible debt on Sea's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting <b>enterprise value is $191.59 billion.</b>For FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea to generate $13.54 billion in revenue, representing 49% y/y growth. Against this revenue expectation, Sea trades at a stark <b>14.1x EV/FY22 revenue multiple.</b>As a reminder, Sea's consolidated gross margin stands at only ~40%, and about half of this revenue comes from e-commerce, which carries only a ~15% margin. How much higher can Sea go? It's clear that Sea's stock price advance and its valuation have been decoupled.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看估值；按照目前接近355美元的股价计算，Sea的市值为1962亿美元，已经成为一只超过道琼斯30指数许多成分股规模的巨型股。在扣除Sea最新资产负债表上的58.9亿美元现金和12.8亿美元可转换债务后，该公司由此产生的<b>企业价值为1915.9亿美元。</b>华尔街分析师预计Sea 2022财年收入将达到135.4亿美元，同比增长49%。与这一收入预期相反，Sea的交易价格大幅上涨<b>EV/22财年收入倍数为14.1倍。</b>需要提醒的是，Sea的综合毛利率仅为约40%，其中约一半收入来自电子商务，而电子商务的利润率仅为约15%。大海能飞多高？很明显，Sea的股价上涨与其估值已经脱钩。</blockquote></p><p> Fundamentally, I am impressed by Sea's continued growth in gaming, which has extended further beyond the pandemic than I initially expected (hence why I'm neutral and not bearish on the stock). At the same time, I hesitate to believe that ~$200 billion is an appropriate valuation for a company that is not profitable and hasn't shown a meaningful trajectory to getting there, as adjusted EBITDA losses continue to mount. A recent capital raise, too, may indicate that this will be Sea's pattern for a while: growth at all costs. That mindset worked for investors in 2020 and 2021; but will it stand firm if overall market sentiment continues to sour in 2022?</p><p><blockquote>从根本上说，Sea在游戏领域的持续增长给我留下了深刻的印象，这种增长超出了我最初的预期（因此我对该股持中立态度，不看跌）。与此同时，我不太愿意相信，对于一家尚未盈利且尚未显示出实现这一目标的有意义轨迹的公司来说，约2000亿美元的估值是否合适，因为调整后的EBITDA亏损持续增加。最近的一次融资也可能表明，这将是Sea一段时间内的模式：不惜一切代价实现增长。这种心态在2020年和2021年对投资者有效；但如果2022年整体市场情绪继续恶化，它会站稳脚跟吗？</blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, the best move here is to remain on the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，最好的办法是保持观望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gaming remains sturdy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏依然强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest upside surprises that Sea delivered in its most recent quarter was strength in gaming. In the gaming sector (and this goes beyond just Sea itself), the biggest fear was that the post-pandemic period, which saw a return to schools and offices, would sap gaming time and paid user counts this fall.</p><p><blockquote>Sea在最近一个季度带来的最大惊喜之一是游戏领域的实力。在游戏行业（这不仅仅是Sea本身），最大的担忧是大流行后时期，学校和办公室的回归，将减少今年秋天的游戏时间和付费用户数量。</blockquote></p><p> If this is to happen, though, it hasn't happened yet. After a Q1 in which Sea's quarterly active user adds slowed to ~38 million, Sea added <b>76 million net-new QAUs</b> in Q2, roughly matching the pace of the prior two quarters combined. Quarterly paid users, meanwhile, grew at 85% y/y to 92.2 million, with paid users representing a record 13% of Sea's total QAUs.</p><p><blockquote>不过，如果这要发生的话，那还没有发生。Sea补充道，第一季度Sea的季度活跃用户数放缓至约3800万<b>净新增QAU 7600万</b>第二季度的增长速度与前两个季度的总和大致相当。与此同时，季度付费用户同比增长85%，达到9220万，付费用户占Sea总QAU的13%，创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. Sea gaming user counts</p><p><blockquote>图1。Sea gaming用户数量</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ec6773a8f9c4c7506cdce3ade0fc60\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The paid user ratio is up three points from 10% in the year-ago Q2, and has been rising steadily. Therein lies a big catalyst for investor enthusiasm in this stock, and one that I don't disagree with: Sea already has a large captive audience, and it has also proven adept at content curation and producing its own games (Free Fire, which was developed in-house, remains the company's biggest hit). As paid user ratios rise, Sea may be able to capture more and more revenue from this 700+ million-strong user base.</p><p><blockquote>付费用户比例较去年第二季度的10%上升了3个百分点，并且一直在稳步上升。这是投资者对这只股票热情的一大催化剂，我也不反对这一点：Sea已经拥有大量的忠实观众，而且它也被证明擅长内容监管和制作自己的游戏（Free Fire，这是内部开发的，仍然是该公司最大的成功）。随着付费用户比例的上升，Sea或许能够从这个7亿多的用户群中获取越来越多的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Here's some useful anecdotal commentary from Sea CEO Forrest Li on gamer engagement, made during his prepared remarks on the Q2 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>以下是Sea首席执行官Forrest Li在第二季度收益看涨期权上准备好的讲话中对玩家参与度发表的一些有用的轶事评论：</blockquote></p><p> Free Fire delivered excellent results during the quarter, setting multiple new records. Building on its strong performance across global markets, the game recently exceeded 1 billion cumulative downloads on Google Play. We believe Free Fire is the first ever mobile battle royale game to achieve this milestone. It was ranked third globally by average monthly active users on Google Play in the second quarter, according to App Annie. Furthermore, Free Fire’s peak daily active users hit more than 150 million during the quarter. This is a new record for us, and we believe that few online games globally have ever reached this scale. Meanwhile, Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia, Latin America and India in the second quarter, according to App Annie. The game has now retained its leadership in Southeast Asia and Latin America for eight straight quarters, and in India for three straight quarters. We have also gained traction in certain developed markets like the U.S. where the game was ranked the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Free Fire was the second highest grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all game categories in the second quarter as well.\" We'll have to see, however, what unknown pandemic impacts are baked into these numbers. For example, in Sea's home market of Singapore, schools shifted back to online education after COVID cases spiked this fall. Similar dynamics may be helping Sea's Q2 user counts, and investors may be shocked if growth decelerates down the road.</p><p><blockquote>Free Fire在本季度取得了出色的业绩，创下了多项新纪录。凭借其在全球市场的强劲表现，该游戏最近在Google Play上的累计下载量超过了10亿次。我们相信《自由之火》是第一款达到这一里程碑的手机皇家战役游戏。根据App Annie的数据，第二季度Google Play的平均月活跃用户在全球排名第三。此外，Free Fire本季度的日活跃用户峰值超过1.5亿。这对我们来说是一个新的记录，我们相信全球很少有网络游戏能达到这样的规模。与此同时，根据App Annie的数据，《Free Fire》继续成为第二季度东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度票房最高的手机游戏。这款游戏现在已经连续八个季度在东南亚和拉丁美洲保持领先地位，连续三个季度在印度保持领先地位。我们还在美国等某些发达市场获得了关注，根据App Annie的数据，该游戏在过去两个季度中被评为票房最高的移动大逃杀游戏。《Free Fire》也是第二季度Google Play上美国所有游戏类别中票房第二高的手机游戏。”然而，我们必须看看这些数字中包含了哪些未知的大流行影响。例如，在Sea的本土市场新加坡，在今年秋天COVID病例激增后，学校又转向了在线教育。类似的动态可能有助于Sea第二季度的用户数量，如果未来增长放缓，投资者可能会感到震惊。</blockquote></p><p> Sea's digital entertainment bookings grew 65% y/y to $1.2 billion in Q2, but for the full year FY21, the company is guiding to only 45% y/y bookings growth, implying deceleration in the back half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>Sea第二季度的数字娱乐预订量同比增长65%，达到12亿美元，但对于2021财年全年，该公司预计预订量同比增长仅为45%，这意味着下半年将放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Losses and capital raise may raise eyebrows</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亏损和融资可能会引起人们的关注</b></blockquote></p><p> The continued worry we have for Sea, however, is this: when will investors finally be unable to look past the buildup of losses? I continue to emphasize that <b>Sea's gaming division is subsidizing its e-commerce division.</b>Investors are primarily long on Sea for the latter, but the latter cannot stand without the profits of the former.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们对Sea的持续担忧是：投资者什么时候才能最终看不到损失的积累？我继续强调<b>Sea的游戏部门正在补贴其电子商务部门。</b>投资者主要是为后者做多，但后者离不开前者的利润。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. Sea adjusted EBITDA</p><p><blockquote>图2。Sea调整后EBITDA</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b54d900f9e355c4b49394fb46ead7af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart above tells us two things:</p><p><blockquote>上图告诉我们两件事：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Sea is not on a path to stabilization yet; the company had a -$24.1 million adjusted EBITDA loss in FY21 versus $7.7 million of profit on FY20.</li> <li>Gaming's ~$300 million y/y buildup of adjusted EBITDA gains was approximately exactly enough to cover a buildup of losses of the same magnitude in e-commerce and digital financial services.</li> </ul> It's not all bad news for Sea: the company reported that two markets, Malaysia and Taiwan, have reported division-level EBITDA breakeven in the e-commerce segment. However, Sea's largest market of Indonesia continues to lag (and in this market, where Sea's competition versus the likes of Tokopedia is fierce, the company is chasing growth through offering deeply discounted products).</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea尚未走上稳定之路；该公司2021财年调整后EBITDA亏损为-2,410万美元，而2020财年利润为770万美元。</li><li>博彩业调整后EBITDA收益同比增长约3亿美元，大约足以弥补电子商务和数字金融服务同等规模的亏损。</li></ul>对于Sea来说，这并不全是坏消息：该公司报告称，马来西亚和台湾这两个市场在电子商务领域实现了部门级EBITDA盈亏平衡。然而，Sea最大的印度尼西亚市场仍然落后（在这个市场，Sea与Tokopedia等公司的竞争非常激烈，该公司正在通过提供大幅折扣的产品来追求增长）。</blockquote></p><p> GAAP losses are much wider than adjusted EBITDA; year-to-date through Q2, Sea has generated a GAAP loss of -$856.1 million, or a -21% net margin.</p><p><blockquote>GAAP亏损远高于调整后EBITDA；年初至今，截至第二季度，Sea的GAAP亏损为-8.561亿美元，净利润率为-21%。</blockquote></p><p> We note as well that Sea recently did a \"mega financing\", selling $3.5 billion of new American Depository Shares and $2.5 billion in a new convertible bond. This buffering up of cash should be a signal to the markets that Sea is going to need more liquidity support outside of its operations for quite some time.</p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，Sea最近进行了一次“巨额融资”，出售了35亿美元的新美国存托股票和25亿美元的新可转换债券。这种现金缓冲应该向市场发出一个信号，表明Sea在相当长的一段时间内将需要更多运营之外的流动性支持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键要点</b></blockquote></p><p> I don't disagree that Sea remains on a growth tear, but I remain unenthused about the company's prospects. Large losses and a heavy valuation seem like quainter concepts in the 2021 bull market, but looking ahead to 2022 when most of Wall Street is calling for choppy trading ahead may not make growth stocks like Sea the best choice. Steer clear here.</p><p><blockquote>我并不反对Sea仍处于增长阶段，但我对该公司的前景仍然不感兴趣。在2021年牛市中，巨额亏损和高估值似乎是奇怪的概念，但展望2022年，当大多数华尔街人士都呼吁未来交易波动时，像Sea这样的成长型股票可能不会成为最佳选择。避开这里。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea: Don't Be Caught Holding The Hot Potato<blockquote>Sea：不要被抓到拿着烫手山芋</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea: Don't Be Caught Holding The Hot Potato<blockquote>Sea：不要被抓到拿着烫手山芋</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-25 14:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Shares of Sea have nearly doubled this year, as the Southeast Asian internet giant continues to grow in gaming and e-commerce.</li> <li>Sea didn't suffer a massive slowdown in gaming in the post-pandemic period as expected.</li> <li>E-commerce GMV continues to explode, though losses are also multiplying.</li> <li>Sea recently announced a massive capital raise, which highlights the company's losses.</li> <li>Valuation remains the key limiting factor for Sea, with the stock trading at ~14x forward revenue.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66e280d822cebfb8966ad498a141862e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DeanDrobot/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着东南亚互联网巨头在游戏和电子商务领域的持续增长，Sea的股价今年几乎翻了一番。</li><li>Sea并没有像预期的那样在大流行后时期遭受游戏行业的大幅放缓。</li><li>电商GMV持续爆发，尽管亏损也在成倍增加。</li><li>Sea最近宣布了一项大规模融资，这凸显了该公司的亏损。</li><li>估值仍然是Sea的关键限制因素，该股的交易价格约为预期收入的14倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>DeanDrobot/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's tough to stake out a contrarian negative stance against Sea (SE), but I retain my conviction that this Southeast Asian internet conglomerate has run up far too quickly, at least relative to its fundamentals. Few pandemic investments have been as fortuitous as Sea. Prior to the pandemic, this little-known Singaporean internet stock was trading at just $50 per share. Now, as the pandemic has \"activated\" growth in each of Sea's three key segments: online gaming, e-commerce, and online payments - shares of Sea sit above $350, having risen ~7x since the start of the pandemic and nearly ~2x year to date through 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很难对Sea(SE)采取逆向负面立场，但我仍然坚信这家东南亚互联网集团的发展太快了，至少相对于其基本面而言是这样。很少有流行病投资像Sea那样偶然。在疫情之前，这只鲜为人知的新加坡互联网股票的交易价格仅为每股50美元。现在，随着疫情“激活”了Sea三个关键领域的增长：在线游戏、电子商务和在线支付，Sea的股价已超过350美元，自疫情开始以来已上涨约7倍，近2倍到2021年。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da4abad91139d60d01f334013aa4c8c4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Everyone loves a winner, especially in this year's stock market. But given overall market jitters and a recent September/October correction in growth stocks, we have to ask:<b>does Sea really have upside left?</b></p><p><blockquote>每个人都喜欢赢家，尤其是在今年的股市中。但考虑到整体市场紧张情绪以及成长型股票最近9月/10月的调整，我们不得不问：<b>Sea真的还有上升空间吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> I continue to retain my <b>neutral</b> opinion on Sea. I do see the appeal: yeah, major market has an internet e-commerce king (Amazon (AMZN) in the U.S., Alibaba (BABA) in China), and Southeast Asia's most likely winner is Sea. I don't doubt that this stock will continue to be a heavyweight five years down the line. But I'm looking at the next 1-2 year timeframe, and I think the stock has already gotten ahead of itself and won't be able to meaningfully outperform in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>我继续保留我的<b>中立的</b>对海洋的看法。我确实看到了吸引力：是的，主要市场有一个互联网电子商务之王（美国的亚马逊（AMZN），中国的阿里巴巴-SW（BABA）），东南亚最有可能的赢家是Sea。我毫不怀疑这只股票五年后将继续成为重量级股票。但我着眼于未来1-2年的时间框架，我认为该股已经超前了，短期内无法大幅跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Let's look at valuation; at current share prices near $355, Sea trades at a market cap of $196.2 billion, already making it a mega-cap that exceeds the size of many of the Dow 30 components. After netting off the $5.89 billion of cash and $1.28 billion of convertible debt on Sea's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting <b>enterprise value is $191.59 billion.</b>For FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea to generate $13.54 billion in revenue, representing 49% y/y growth. Against this revenue expectation, Sea trades at a stark <b>14.1x EV/FY22 revenue multiple.</b>As a reminder, Sea's consolidated gross margin stands at only ~40%, and about half of this revenue comes from e-commerce, which carries only a ~15% margin. How much higher can Sea go? It's clear that Sea's stock price advance and its valuation have been decoupled.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看估值；按照目前接近355美元的股价计算，Sea的市值为1962亿美元，已经成为一只超过道琼斯30指数许多成分股规模的巨型股。在扣除Sea最新资产负债表上的58.9亿美元现金和12.8亿美元可转换债务后，该公司由此产生的<b>企业价值为1915.9亿美元。</b>华尔街分析师预计Sea 2022财年收入将达到135.4亿美元，同比增长49%。与这一收入预期相反，Sea的交易价格大幅上涨<b>EV/22财年收入倍数为14.1倍。</b>需要提醒的是，Sea的综合毛利率仅为约40%，其中约一半收入来自电子商务，而电子商务的利润率仅为约15%。大海能飞多高？很明显，Sea的股价上涨与其估值已经脱钩。</blockquote></p><p> Fundamentally, I am impressed by Sea's continued growth in gaming, which has extended further beyond the pandemic than I initially expected (hence why I'm neutral and not bearish on the stock). At the same time, I hesitate to believe that ~$200 billion is an appropriate valuation for a company that is not profitable and hasn't shown a meaningful trajectory to getting there, as adjusted EBITDA losses continue to mount. A recent capital raise, too, may indicate that this will be Sea's pattern for a while: growth at all costs. That mindset worked for investors in 2020 and 2021; but will it stand firm if overall market sentiment continues to sour in 2022?</p><p><blockquote>从根本上说，Sea在游戏领域的持续增长给我留下了深刻的印象，这种增长超出了我最初的预期（因此我对该股持中立态度，不看跌）。与此同时，我不太愿意相信，对于一家尚未盈利且尚未显示出实现这一目标的有意义轨迹的公司来说，约2000亿美元的估值是否合适，因为调整后的EBITDA亏损持续增加。最近的一次融资也可能表明，这将是Sea一段时间内的模式：不惜一切代价实现增长。这种心态在2020年和2021年对投资者有效；但如果2022年整体市场情绪继续恶化，它会站稳脚跟吗？</blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, the best move here is to remain on the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，最好的办法是保持观望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gaming remains sturdy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏依然强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest upside surprises that Sea delivered in its most recent quarter was strength in gaming. In the gaming sector (and this goes beyond just Sea itself), the biggest fear was that the post-pandemic period, which saw a return to schools and offices, would sap gaming time and paid user counts this fall.</p><p><blockquote>Sea在最近一个季度带来的最大惊喜之一是游戏领域的实力。在游戏行业（这不仅仅是Sea本身），最大的担忧是大流行后时期，学校和办公室的回归，将减少今年秋天的游戏时间和付费用户数量。</blockquote></p><p> If this is to happen, though, it hasn't happened yet. After a Q1 in which Sea's quarterly active user adds slowed to ~38 million, Sea added <b>76 million net-new QAUs</b> in Q2, roughly matching the pace of the prior two quarters combined. Quarterly paid users, meanwhile, grew at 85% y/y to 92.2 million, with paid users representing a record 13% of Sea's total QAUs.</p><p><blockquote>不过，如果这要发生的话，那还没有发生。Sea补充道，第一季度Sea的季度活跃用户数放缓至约3800万<b>净新增QAU 7600万</b>第二季度的增长速度与前两个季度的总和大致相当。与此同时，季度付费用户同比增长85%，达到9220万，付费用户占Sea总QAU的13%，创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. Sea gaming user counts</p><p><blockquote>图1。Sea gaming用户数量</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ec6773a8f9c4c7506cdce3ade0fc60\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The paid user ratio is up three points from 10% in the year-ago Q2, and has been rising steadily. Therein lies a big catalyst for investor enthusiasm in this stock, and one that I don't disagree with: Sea already has a large captive audience, and it has also proven adept at content curation and producing its own games (Free Fire, which was developed in-house, remains the company's biggest hit). As paid user ratios rise, Sea may be able to capture more and more revenue from this 700+ million-strong user base.</p><p><blockquote>付费用户比例较去年第二季度的10%上升了3个百分点，并且一直在稳步上升。这是投资者对这只股票热情的一大催化剂，我也不反对这一点：Sea已经拥有大量的忠实观众，而且它也被证明擅长内容监管和制作自己的游戏（Free Fire，这是内部开发的，仍然是该公司最大的成功）。随着付费用户比例的上升，Sea或许能够从这个7亿多的用户群中获取越来越多的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Here's some useful anecdotal commentary from Sea CEO Forrest Li on gamer engagement, made during his prepared remarks on the Q2 earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>以下是Sea首席执行官Forrest Li在第二季度收益看涨期权上准备好的讲话中对玩家参与度发表的一些有用的轶事评论：</blockquote></p><p> Free Fire delivered excellent results during the quarter, setting multiple new records. Building on its strong performance across global markets, the game recently exceeded 1 billion cumulative downloads on Google Play. We believe Free Fire is the first ever mobile battle royale game to achieve this milestone. It was ranked third globally by average monthly active users on Google Play in the second quarter, according to App Annie. Furthermore, Free Fire’s peak daily active users hit more than 150 million during the quarter. This is a new record for us, and we believe that few online games globally have ever reached this scale. Meanwhile, Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia, Latin America and India in the second quarter, according to App Annie. The game has now retained its leadership in Southeast Asia and Latin America for eight straight quarters, and in India for three straight quarters. We have also gained traction in certain developed markets like the U.S. where the game was ranked the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Free Fire was the second highest grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all game categories in the second quarter as well.\" We'll have to see, however, what unknown pandemic impacts are baked into these numbers. For example, in Sea's home market of Singapore, schools shifted back to online education after COVID cases spiked this fall. Similar dynamics may be helping Sea's Q2 user counts, and investors may be shocked if growth decelerates down the road.</p><p><blockquote>Free Fire在本季度取得了出色的业绩，创下了多项新纪录。凭借其在全球市场的强劲表现，该游戏最近在Google Play上的累计下载量超过了10亿次。我们相信《自由之火》是第一款达到这一里程碑的手机皇家战役游戏。根据App Annie的数据，第二季度Google Play的平均月活跃用户在全球排名第三。此外，Free Fire本季度的日活跃用户峰值超过1.5亿。这对我们来说是一个新的记录，我们相信全球很少有网络游戏能达到这样的规模。与此同时，根据App Annie的数据，《Free Fire》继续成为第二季度东南亚、拉丁美洲和印度票房最高的手机游戏。这款游戏现在已经连续八个季度在东南亚和拉丁美洲保持领先地位，连续三个季度在印度保持领先地位。我们还在美国等某些发达市场获得了关注，根据App Annie的数据，该游戏在过去两个季度中被评为票房最高的移动大逃杀游戏。《Free Fire》也是第二季度Google Play上美国所有游戏类别中票房第二高的手机游戏。”然而，我们必须看看这些数字中包含了哪些未知的大流行影响。例如，在Sea的本土市场新加坡，在今年秋天COVID病例激增后，学校又转向了在线教育。类似的动态可能有助于Sea第二季度的用户数量，如果未来增长放缓，投资者可能会感到震惊。</blockquote></p><p> Sea's digital entertainment bookings grew 65% y/y to $1.2 billion in Q2, but for the full year FY21, the company is guiding to only 45% y/y bookings growth, implying deceleration in the back half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>Sea第二季度的数字娱乐预订量同比增长65%，达到12亿美元，但对于2021财年全年，该公司预计预订量同比增长仅为45%，这意味着下半年将放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Losses and capital raise may raise eyebrows</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亏损和融资可能会引起人们的关注</b></blockquote></p><p> The continued worry we have for Sea, however, is this: when will investors finally be unable to look past the buildup of losses? I continue to emphasize that <b>Sea's gaming division is subsidizing its e-commerce division.</b>Investors are primarily long on Sea for the latter, but the latter cannot stand without the profits of the former.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们对Sea的持续担忧是：投资者什么时候才能最终看不到损失的积累？我继续强调<b>Sea的游戏部门正在补贴其电子商务部门。</b>投资者主要是为后者做多，但后者离不开前者的利润。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. Sea adjusted EBITDA</p><p><blockquote>图2。Sea调整后EBITDA</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b54d900f9e355c4b49394fb46ead7af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Sea Q2 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Sea第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart above tells us two things:</p><p><blockquote>上图告诉我们两件事：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Sea is not on a path to stabilization yet; the company had a -$24.1 million adjusted EBITDA loss in FY21 versus $7.7 million of profit on FY20.</li> <li>Gaming's ~$300 million y/y buildup of adjusted EBITDA gains was approximately exactly enough to cover a buildup of losses of the same magnitude in e-commerce and digital financial services.</li> </ul> It's not all bad news for Sea: the company reported that two markets, Malaysia and Taiwan, have reported division-level EBITDA breakeven in the e-commerce segment. However, Sea's largest market of Indonesia continues to lag (and in this market, where Sea's competition versus the likes of Tokopedia is fierce, the company is chasing growth through offering deeply discounted products).</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea尚未走上稳定之路；该公司2021财年调整后EBITDA亏损为-2,410万美元，而2020财年利润为770万美元。</li><li>博彩业调整后EBITDA收益同比增长约3亿美元，大约足以弥补电子商务和数字金融服务同等规模的亏损。</li></ul>对于Sea来说，这并不全是坏消息：该公司报告称，马来西亚和台湾这两个市场在电子商务领域实现了部门级EBITDA盈亏平衡。然而，Sea最大的印度尼西亚市场仍然落后（在这个市场，Sea与Tokopedia等公司的竞争非常激烈，该公司正在通过提供大幅折扣的产品来追求增长）。</blockquote></p><p> GAAP losses are much wider than adjusted EBITDA; year-to-date through Q2, Sea has generated a GAAP loss of -$856.1 million, or a -21% net margin.</p><p><blockquote>GAAP亏损远高于调整后EBITDA；年初至今，截至第二季度，Sea的GAAP亏损为-8.561亿美元，净利润率为-21%。</blockquote></p><p> We note as well that Sea recently did a \"mega financing\", selling $3.5 billion of new American Depository Shares and $2.5 billion in a new convertible bond. This buffering up of cash should be a signal to the markets that Sea is going to need more liquidity support outside of its operations for quite some time.</p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，Sea最近进行了一次“巨额融资”，出售了35亿美元的新美国存托股票和25亿美元的新可转换债券。这种现金缓冲应该向市场发出一个信号，表明Sea在相当长的一段时间内将需要更多运营之外的流动性支持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键要点</b></blockquote></p><p> I don't disagree that Sea remains on a growth tear, but I remain unenthused about the company's prospects. Large losses and a heavy valuation seem like quainter concepts in the 2021 bull market, but looking ahead to 2022 when most of Wall Street is calling for choppy trading ahead may not make growth stocks like Sea the best choice. Steer clear here.</p><p><blockquote>我并不反对Sea仍处于增长阶段，但我对该公司的前景仍然不感兴趣。在2021年牛市中，巨额亏损和高估值似乎是奇怪的概念，但展望2022年，当大多数华尔街人士都呼吁未来交易波动时，像Sea这样的成长型股票可能不会成为最佳选择。避开这里。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461654-sea-dont-be-caught-holding-the-hot-potato\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461654-sea-dont-be-caught-holding-the-hot-potato","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186134889","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Sea have nearly doubled this year, as the Southeast Asian internet giant continues to grow in gaming and e-commerce.\nSea didn't suffer a massive slowdown in gaming in the post-pandemic period as expected.\nE-commerce GMV continues to explode, though losses are also multiplying.\nSea recently announced a massive capital raise, which highlights the company's losses.\nValuation remains the key limiting factor for Sea, with the stock trading at ~14x forward revenue.\n\nDeanDrobot/iStock via Getty Images\nIt's tough to stake out a contrarian negative stance against Sea (SE), but I retain my conviction that this Southeast Asian internet conglomerate has run up far too quickly, at least relative to its fundamentals. Few pandemic investments have been as fortuitous as Sea. Prior to the pandemic, this little-known Singaporean internet stock was trading at just $50 per share. Now, as the pandemic has \"activated\" growth in each of Sea's three key segments: online gaming, e-commerce, and online payments - shares of Sea sit above $350, having risen ~7x since the start of the pandemic and nearly ~2x year to date through 2021.\nData by YCharts\nEveryone loves a winner, especially in this year's stock market. But given overall market jitters and a recent September/October correction in growth stocks, we have to ask:does Sea really have upside left?\nI continue to retain my neutral opinion on Sea. I do see the appeal: yeah, major market has an internet e-commerce king (Amazon (AMZN) in the U.S., Alibaba (BABA) in China), and Southeast Asia's most likely winner is Sea. I don't doubt that this stock will continue to be a heavyweight five years down the line. But I'm looking at the next 1-2 year timeframe, and I think the stock has already gotten ahead of itself and won't be able to meaningfully outperform in the short term.\nLet's look at valuation; at current share prices near $355, Sea trades at a market cap of $196.2 billion, already making it a mega-cap that exceeds the size of many of the Dow 30 components. After netting off the $5.89 billion of cash and $1.28 billion of convertible debt on Sea's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting enterprise value is $191.59 billion.For FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting Sea to generate $13.54 billion in revenue, representing 49% y/y growth. Against this revenue expectation, Sea trades at a stark 14.1x EV/FY22 revenue multiple.As a reminder, Sea's consolidated gross margin stands at only ~40%, and about half of this revenue comes from e-commerce, which carries only a ~15% margin. How much higher can Sea go? It's clear that Sea's stock price advance and its valuation have been decoupled.\nFundamentally, I am impressed by Sea's continued growth in gaming, which has extended further beyond the pandemic than I initially expected (hence why I'm neutral and not bearish on the stock). At the same time, I hesitate to believe that ~$200 billion is an appropriate valuation for a company that is not profitable and hasn't shown a meaningful trajectory to getting there, as adjusted EBITDA losses continue to mount. A recent capital raise, too, may indicate that this will be Sea's pattern for a while: growth at all costs. That mindset worked for investors in 2020 and 2021; but will it stand firm if overall market sentiment continues to sour in 2022?\nIn my opinion, the best move here is to remain on the sidelines.\nGaming remains sturdy\nOne of the biggest upside surprises that Sea delivered in its most recent quarter was strength in gaming. In the gaming sector (and this goes beyond just Sea itself), the biggest fear was that the post-pandemic period, which saw a return to schools and offices, would sap gaming time and paid user counts this fall.\nIf this is to happen, though, it hasn't happened yet. After a Q1 in which Sea's quarterly active user adds slowed to ~38 million, Sea added 76 million net-new QAUs in Q2, roughly matching the pace of the prior two quarters combined. Quarterly paid users, meanwhile, grew at 85% y/y to 92.2 million, with paid users representing a record 13% of Sea's total QAUs.\nFigure 1. Sea gaming user counts\nSource: Sea Q2 earnings presentation\nThe paid user ratio is up three points from 10% in the year-ago Q2, and has been rising steadily. Therein lies a big catalyst for investor enthusiasm in this stock, and one that I don't disagree with: Sea already has a large captive audience, and it has also proven adept at content curation and producing its own games (Free Fire, which was developed in-house, remains the company's biggest hit). As paid user ratios rise, Sea may be able to capture more and more revenue from this 700+ million-strong user base.\nHere's some useful anecdotal commentary from Sea CEO Forrest Li on gamer engagement, made during his prepared remarks on the Q2 earnings call:\n\n Free Fire delivered excellent results during the quarter, setting multiple new records. Building on its strong performance across global markets, the game recently exceeded 1 billion cumulative downloads on Google Play. We believe Free Fire is the first ever mobile battle royale game to achieve this milestone.\n\n\n It was ranked third globally by average monthly active users on Google Play in the second quarter, according to App Annie. Furthermore, Free Fire’s peak daily active users hit more than 150 million during the quarter. This is a new record for us, and we believe that few online games globally have ever reached this scale.\n\n\n Meanwhile, Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia, Latin America and India in the second quarter, according to App Annie. The game has now retained its leadership in Southeast Asia and Latin America for eight straight quarters, and in India for three straight quarters. We have also gained traction in certain developed markets like the U.S. where the game was ranked the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for the past two quarters based on App Annie. Free Fire was the second highest grossing mobile game in the U.S. on Google Play across all game categories in the second quarter as well.\"\n\nWe'll have to see, however, what unknown pandemic impacts are baked into these numbers. For example, in Sea's home market of Singapore, schools shifted back to online education after COVID cases spiked this fall. Similar dynamics may be helping Sea's Q2 user counts, and investors may be shocked if growth decelerates down the road.\nSea's digital entertainment bookings grew 65% y/y to $1.2 billion in Q2, but for the full year FY21, the company is guiding to only 45% y/y bookings growth, implying deceleration in the back half of the year.\nLosses and capital raise may raise eyebrows\nThe continued worry we have for Sea, however, is this: when will investors finally be unable to look past the buildup of losses? I continue to emphasize that Sea's gaming division is subsidizing its e-commerce division.Investors are primarily long on Sea for the latter, but the latter cannot stand without the profits of the former.\nFigure 2. Sea adjusted EBITDA\nSource: Sea Q2 earnings presentation\nThe chart above tells us two things:\n\nSea is not on a path to stabilization yet; the company had a -$24.1 million adjusted EBITDA loss in FY21 versus $7.7 million of profit on FY20.\nGaming's ~$300 million y/y buildup of adjusted EBITDA gains was approximately exactly enough to cover a buildup of losses of the same magnitude in e-commerce and digital financial services.\n\nIt's not all bad news for Sea: the company reported that two markets, Malaysia and Taiwan, have reported division-level EBITDA breakeven in the e-commerce segment. However, Sea's largest market of Indonesia continues to lag (and in this market, where Sea's competition versus the likes of Tokopedia is fierce, the company is chasing growth through offering deeply discounted products).\nGAAP losses are much wider than adjusted EBITDA; year-to-date through Q2, Sea has generated a GAAP loss of -$856.1 million, or a -21% net margin.\nWe note as well that Sea recently did a \"mega financing\", selling $3.5 billion of new American Depository Shares and $2.5 billion in a new convertible bond. This buffering up of cash should be a signal to the markets that Sea is going to need more liquidity support outside of its operations for quite some time.\nKey takeaways\nI don't disagree that Sea remains on a growth tear, but I remain unenthused about the company's prospects. Large losses and a heavy valuation seem like quainter concepts in the 2021 bull market, but looking ahead to 2022 when most of Wall Street is calling for choppy trading ahead may not make growth stocks like Sea the best choice. Steer clear here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3779,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":30,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/856113894"}
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