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2021-10-29

Buy INTC now, wait for AMD to be at $110 and NVIDA at $195

Intel, Nvidia, Or AMD: Which Chip Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>英特尔、英伟达还是 AMD：哪只芯片股票更值得购买？</blockquote>

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However, the market was confused w","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Intel reported a set of earnings that was pretty decent. However, the market was confused with its ambitious growth plans.</li> <li>Advanced Micro Devices continues its run of phenomenal results in FY21. Dr. Lisa Su &amp; Co. is making the most out of Intel's stumbles.</li> <li>Nvidia will issue its FQ3 report card on 17 November. The company's growth momentum is expected to continue slowing down.</li> <li>We discuss which semiconductor stock is the better buy now.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c8b907cc53a6667f686b7acaf873b0a\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>英特尔公布的收益相当不错。然而，市场对其雄心勃勃的增长计划感到困惑。</li><li>Advanced Micro Devices 在 2021 财年继续取得惊人的业绩。Lisa Su &amp; Co. 博士正在充分利用英特尔的失误。</li><li>英伟达将于11月17日发布第三季度成绩单。公司增长势头预计将继续放缓。</li><li>我们讨论现在哪种半导体股票更值得购买。</li></ul>杂项摄影/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) issued a fantastic FQ3 report card recently. The company also handily beat consensus estimates and reaffirmed AMD's position as one of the leading semiconductor companies.<blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) 最近发布了一份精彩的第三季度成绩单。该公司还轻松超出了市场普遍预期，并重申了 AMD 作为领先半导体公司之一的地位。</blockquote> Notably, the company made gains while Intel (INTC) reported a set of results that we thought were actually pretty fine. There were some concerns over underwhelming data center performance, but it was expected. However, the market didn't like what Pat Gelsinger &amp; Co. telegraphed and thrashed the stock after earnings. Intel communicated what it would cost on its quest to retake its process node leadership. However, it seems that investors weren't sure about the company's ambitious plans. Coupled with weakened profitability and free cash flow prospects, some value-oriented investors seemed to have headed for the exit.<blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司实现了上涨，而英特尔 (INTC) 报告了一系列我们认为实际上相当不错的业绩。人们对数据中心性能不佳表示担忧，但这是意料之中的。然而，市场并不喜欢 Pat Gelsinger &amp; Co. 在财报公布后发出的电报和对该股的猛烈抨击。英特尔传达了其寻求重新夺回工艺节点领导地位的成本。然而，投资者似乎并不确定该公司雄心勃勃的计划。再加上盈利能力减弱和自由现金流前景，一些价值导向的投资者似乎已经走向退出。</blockquote> Nvidia (NVDA) will issue its FQ3 report card on 17 November. The company had previously guided for a strong quarter. Jensen Huang &amp; Co. see \"sequential growth&nbsp;driven largely by accelerating demand in data center.\" The company also expects growth in each of its three markets, particularly in gaming. Investors' expectations are also high given AMD's robust performance. Hence, investors have eagerly anticipated NVDA's earnings release as NVDA stock pushed through a new all-time high (ATH) this week.<blockquote>英伟达 (NVDA) 将于 11 月 17 日发布第三季度成绩单。该公司此前曾预测本季度表现强劲。黄仁勋公司认为“主要由数据中心需求加速推动的连续增长”。该公司还预计其三个市场都将实现增长，尤其是游戏市场。鉴于 AMD 的强劲表现，投资者的期望也很高。因此，随着 NVDA 股价本周创下历史新高 (ATH)，投资者热切期待 NVDA 的财报发布。</blockquote> We will discuss which semiconductor stock is the better buy now between them.<blockquote>我们将讨论现在哪只半导体股票更值得购买。</blockquote> INTC, NVDA, AMD Stock YTD Performance<blockquote>INTC、NVDA、AMD 股票年初至今表现</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc276e3bd3b1b72a0413e8be2d14ebe3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">INTC, NVDA, AMD stock YTD performance (as of 27 October 21).<blockquote>INTC、NVDA、AMD股票年初至今表现（截至21年10月27日）。</blockquote> NVDA stock continues to enjoy a phenomenal year so far. The stock made a new ATH this week, as YTD returns surged to 87.3%. Bearish investors in NVDA can say all they want, but we have never adopted a bearish NVDA stock thesis. It just doesn't make sense. The stock has the best possible A+ in Seeking Alpha's momentum grade for the whole year. Hence, we really couldn't understand those bearish theses. AMD stock is in second place with a 33.3% YTD gain. It seems like the stock has lagged far behind NVDA stock's incredible performance. However, investors should consider the fact that AMD stock spent most of H1'21 in the red. Therefore, its huge momentum surge in H2'21 has been really impressive. Consequently, the stock's momentum is also given an A grade in Seeking Alpha.<blockquote>到目前为止，NVDA 股票继续享受非凡的一年。该股本周创下新高，年初至今回报率飙升至 87.3%。看跌 NVDA 的投资者可以畅所欲言，但我们从未采用看跌 NVDA 股票的论点。这根本说不通。该股在寻求 Alpha 全年动量评级方面拥有最好的 A+。因此，我们真的无法理解那些看跌的论点。AMD 股票位居第二，年初至今涨幅为 33.3%。该股似乎远远落后于 NVDA 股票令人难以置信的表现。然而，投资者应该考虑到 AMD 股票在 2021 年上半年的大部分时间里都处于亏损状态。因此，其在 H2'21 的巨大势头激增确实令人印象深刻。因此，该股的势头在 Seeking Alpha 中也被评为 A 级。</blockquote> In contrast, the perennial underperformer INTC stock continues to underperform. The stock started very brightly as it raced to a 40% YTD gain. However, its momentum has completely fizzled out. Currently, its YTD decline of 3.9% looks abysmal when compared to AMD stock and NVDA stock. In addition, Seeking Alpha also assigned it with a D+ rating in momentum.<blockquote>相比之下，长期表现不佳的 INTC 股票继续表现不佳。该股开局非常光明，年初至今上涨了 40%。然而，它的势头已经完全消失了。目前，与 AMD 股票和 NVDA 股票相比，其年初至今 3.9% 的跌幅看起来很糟糕。此外，Seeking Alpha 还在 momentum 上给予其 D+ 评级。</blockquote> Intel FQ3 Report Card Is Telling Of Its Weakening Leadership<blockquote>英特尔第三季度成绩单显示其领导地位正在减弱</blockquote> There's little doubt that AMD has made the most of its recent dominance over Intel. However, what's more concerning to Intel investors, and likewise encouraging to AMD investors, is the clarity provided by their respective CEOs.<blockquote>毫无疑问，AMD 充分利用了其最近对英特尔的统治地位。然而，更令英特尔投资者担忧、同样令 AMD 投资者感到鼓舞的是他们各自首席执行官提供的清晰度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f910460f850f7c0c3bd3508e0812fa7b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Intel LTM revenue by segment. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>按部门划分的英特尔 LTM 收入。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> Intel reported another underwhelming quarter, but we don't think it was unexpected. Sure, the company's data center business (DCG) continues to disappoint compared to NVDA and AMD. However, INTC investors shouldn't be surprised.<blockquote>英特尔公布的季度业绩又令人失望，但我们认为这并不出乎意料。当然，与 NVDA 和 AMD 相比，该公司的数据中心业务 (DCG) 仍然令人失望。然而，INTC 投资者不应感到惊讶。</blockquote> DCG quarterly revenue YoY growth came in at 10% in FQ3. However, DCG revenue has been on a declining trend on a last-twelve-months (LTM) basis since FQ2'20.In a recent AMD article, we mentioned that Omdia estimated that AMD's data center share crossed 15% in Q2'21 for the first time in history. In retrospect, Intel had almost complete dominance in this segment just four years ago. It clearly shows how the critical stumbles from its former management have derailed its previously \"unassailable\" leadership. Now, Gelsinger &amp; Co. are left with the unenviable task of trying to overturn Intel's sinking fortunes. With AMD having assumed the technological leadership at the expense of Intel, it certainly looks like an \"easy bet\" which the company will likely continue to outperform.<blockquote>DCG 第三季度季度收入同比增长 10%。然而，自 2020 年第二季度以来，DCG 的收入在过去 12 个月 (LTM) 的基础上一直呈下降趋势。在AMD最近的一篇文章中，我们提到Omdia估计AMD的数据中心份额在Q2’21历史上首次超过15%。回想起来，就在四年前，英特尔在这一领域几乎完全占据主导地位。它清楚地表明，前任管理层的严重失误是如何破坏了其之前“无懈可击”的领导力的。现在，基辛格公司面临着一项艰巨的任务，那就是试图扭转英特尔日益衰落的命运。随着 AMD 以英特尔为代价占据技术领先地位，这看起来肯定是一个“轻松的赌注”，该公司可能会继续跑赢大盘。</blockquote> Intel's client computing group's (CCG) performance was underwhelming in FQ3. Its revenue fell by 1.9% YoY and 4.4% QoQ, respectively. Notably, it came at a time when 2021 saw a strong resurgence in PC sales.In a recent Apple(AAPL) article, we mentioned that Apple's Mac segment had performed very well in 2021. In just the first three FQs, Mac has exceeded its revenue on a per FY basis over the last three years. Its resurgence is also in line with the trend observed in the industry.<blockquote>英特尔客户端计算集团 (CCG) 在第三季度的表现令人失望。其收入同比分别下降1.9%和4.4%。值得注意的是，它发生在2021年个人电脑销售强劲复苏之际。在苹果（AAPL）最近的一篇文章中，我们提到苹果的Mac部门在2021年表现非常好。仅在前三个 FQ 中，Mac 就超过了过去三年的每个财年的收入。它的复苏也符合业内观察到的趋势。</blockquote> Counterpoint Research noted that \"global PC shipments marked their sixth consecutive YoY growth in Q3 2021&nbsp;at 84.2 million units. This came despite the ongoing component shortages and other supply constraints.\" Despite that, the firm also emphasized that \"the 9.3% YoY growth during [Q3] implied decelerating PC shipment momentum after four consecutive quarters of double-digit YoY growth since Q3 2020.\"<blockquote>Counterpoint Research 指出，“2021 年第三季度，全球个人电脑出货量连续第六年同比增长，达到 8420 万台。尽管零部件短缺和其他供应限制持续存在，但情况依然如此。”尽管如此，该公司还强调，“[第三季度]9.3% 的同比增长意味着自 2020 年第三季度以来连续四个季度实现两位数同比增长后，个人电脑出货量势头正在放缓。”</blockquote> Notwithstanding, Mac seems to have picked up strongly in CQ3. IDC reported that&nbsp;Apple's YoY shipment growth in CQ2&nbsp;was 9.4%. Moreover, Counterpoint research pointed out that Mac YoY shipment growth accelerated to 10.6% in CQ3. Hence, it's interesting to note that Mac grew even faster than the industry average in CQ3. As a result, Mac's global market share grew to 8.7%.<blockquote>尽管如此，Mac 似乎在第三季度表现强劲。IDC报告称，苹果第二季度出货量同比增长9.4%。此外，Counterpoint research 指出，第三季度 Mac 出货量同比增长加速至 10.6%。因此，有趣的是，Mac在第三季度的增长速度甚至超过了行业平均水平。因此，Mac的全球市场份额增长到8.7%。</blockquote> Therefore, it seems like Apple has been doing very well since it decoupled from Intel's chips. Even though Gelsinger remains optimistic about winning back Apple's business through \"better products\" in the future, the divorce looks to be \"finalized\" for now. But investors in semiconductor companies should remember that never say never when it comes to technological leadership. Intel is still a highly profitable company and therefore has the wherewithal and conviction to compete. Whether it can overturn AMD's and NVDA's leadership remains to be seen. But never write the company off so early on.<blockquote>因此，苹果自从与英特尔芯片脱钩以来，似乎一直做得很好。尽管基辛格对未来通过“更好的产品”赢回苹果的业务仍然持乐观态度，但离婚目前看来已经“敲定”。但半导体公司的投资者应该记住，当涉及到技术领先地位时，永远不要说永远。英特尔仍然是一家高利润的公司，因此有足够的资金和信念去竞争。它能否推翻AMD和NVDA的领导地位还有待观察。但千万不要这么早就注销公司。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c622b359fd3a73cac53c0e4410177c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">INTC and AMD LTM gross margins. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>INTC 和 AMD LTM 毛利率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> Pat Gelsinger has telegraphed a highly ambitious plan to assume technological leadership. It's mainly predicated on its \"five process nodes in four years\" quest to assume foundry leadership from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). In addition, the company is also willing to \"reset\" its gross margins to compete with AMD and NVDA at the same time. Outgoing CFO George Davis emphasized:<blockquote>帕特·基辛格 (Pat Gelsinger) 宣布了一项雄心勃勃的计划，以占据技术领先地位。它主要基于其“四年内五个工艺节点”的追求，以从台积电 (TSM) 手中夺取代工领导权。此外，该公司还愿意“重置”毛利率，以同时与AMD和NVDA竞争。即将离任的首席财务官乔治·戴维斯强调：</blockquote> We expect to see our revenue growth accelerate to a 10% to 12% CAGR over the next 4 to 5 years. For gross margin, with the impact of our investment in capacity and the acceleration of our process technology, we expect gross margins between 51% and 53% over the next 2 to 3 yearsbefore moving upward. (from Intel Q3 earnings call) We find it interesting. Yes, the investments for process leadership and capacity expansion will affect its profitability. But Intel recognizes that it's at least a five-year process. At this time, is the company going to let Dr. Lisa Su &amp; Co. take all the glory while Intel works out its troubles? Obviously not. Pat recognizes that he needs a stop-gap solution. Short of saying \"we are cutting prices now\" to compete with AMD, this is as close as it gets.<blockquote>我们预计未来 4 至 5 年内收入增长将加速至 10% 至 12% 的复合年增长率.就毛利率而言，随着我们对产能的投资和我们工艺技术的加速，我们预计未来 2 至 3 年毛利率将在 51% 至 53% 之间在向上移动之前。（摘自英特尔第三季度财报看涨期权）我们觉得这很有趣。是的，流程领导和产能扩张的投资将影响其盈利能力。但英特尔认识到这至少是一个五年的过程。此时，该公司是否要让 Lisa Su &amp; Co. 博士承担所有荣耀，而英特尔则解决其问题？显然不是。帕特认识到他需要一个权宜之计的解决方案。除了说“我们现在正在降价”来与AMD竞争之外，这是最接近的了。</blockquote> We also highlighted in our previous AMD article (published on 20 September) that \"Intel is recently reported to be ready to lower the prices for its data center chips. The move was deemed necessary \"to lure back data center operators&nbsp;that have switched to rival Advanced Micro Devices.\" Otherwise, how can Gelsinger &amp; Co. be so confident in stopping the rot from AMD's continued success? Intel has telegraphed a highly ambitious plan to increase revenue by a CAGR of 10% to 12% over the next four to five years. Intel is trying to transform itself back into a growth company. If you want to grow and don't have technological leadership, you must give up some profits. That makes absolute sense.<blockquote>我们还在之前的AMD文章（发表于9月20日）中强调，“最近有报道称，英特尔准备降低其数据中心芯片的价格。此举被认为是必要的”，以吸引已经转向竞争对手先进微设备的数据中心运营商回来。”否则，基辛格公司怎么能如此有信心阻止 AMD 的持续成功？英特尔宣布了一项雄心勃勃的计划，即在未来四到五年内将收入复合年增长率提高 10% 到 12%。英特尔正试图将自己转变为一家成长型公司。如果你想成长，又没有技术领先，就必须放弃一些利润。这绝对有道理。</blockquote> The good thing is, Intel is already a highly profitable company. Its gross margins had declined markedly from the days when it posted margins north of 60%. However, its LTM margin of 56.3% is still significantly higher than AMD's 46.8%. Therefore, Intel's plans are credible. The company will now go head-on to compete with AMD in pricing while investing in assuming foundry leadership. Dr. Lisa Su &amp; Co., you have been cautioned.<blockquote>好的一面是，英特尔已经是一家高利润的公司。自利润率超过 60% 时以来，其毛利率明显下降。不过，其56.3%的LTM利润率仍明显高于AMD的46.8%。因此，英特尔的计划是可信的。该公司现在将在定价方面与 AMD 正面竞争，同时投资占据代工领先地位。苏丽莎博士，你已经被警告过了。</blockquote> AMD Continues Its Gangbusters Growth<blockquote>AMD 继续强劲增长</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fb460f1a24eeac1ff3e46cc0ebd78f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">AMD quarterly revenue by segment. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>AMD 按细分市场划分的季度收入。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5df5298fbc9733b0c0a8b1110c401ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">AMD revenue segments YoY growth. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>AMD 收入部门同比增长。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> There's little doubt that Dr. Lisa Su &amp; Co. have made the most of Intel's absolute mess. The company has been firing on all cylinders as it outperformed estimates easily. It continues to report tremendous strength in all its segments. FQ3 saw Advanced Micro Devices report 43.9% YoY growth in revenue for its computing and graphics business. Moreover, its enterprise, embedded, and semi-custom (EESC) segment continues its phenomenal run as AMD posted YoY revenue growth of 68.9%. Therefore, AMD has certainly made the most of Intel's losses in data center. Moreover, its computing and graphics growth has also been fantastic. AMD has undoubtedly grown much faster than the market.<blockquote>毫无疑问，Lisa Su &amp; Co. 博士充分利用了英特尔的绝对混乱。该公司一直在全力以赴，因为它的表现轻松超出了预期。它在所有细分市场继续表现出巨大的实力。第三季度，Advanced Micro Devices 的计算和图形业务收入同比增长 43.9%。此外，随着 AMD 的收入同比增长 68.9%，其企业、嵌入式和半定制 (EESC) 部门继续保持惊人的表现。因此，AMD无疑将英特尔在数据中心的损失发挥到了最大。此外，其计算和图形增长也非常惊人。AMD的增长速度无疑比市场快得多。</blockquote> In fact, AMD continues to expect strong sequential growth into FQ4. AMD emphasized:<blockquote>事实上，AMD 继续预计第四季度将实现强劲的环比增长。AMD强调：</blockquote> We expect revenue to be approximately $4.5 billion, plus or minus $100 million, an increase of approximately 39% year-over-year and approximately 4% sequentially. The year-over-year increase is expected to be driven by growth across all businesses. The quarter-over-quarter increase is expected to be driven by higher server and semi-custom sales. For the full year 2021, we now expect revenue to increase approximately 65% over 2020, driven by growth across all businesses, up from the prior guidance of 60%. (from AMD FQ3 earnings call) For a company that tells you that it expects a 65% YoY growth over FY20, it's clear it has achieved phenomenal results. Therefore, the market should reward AMD investors. AMD stock has clearly been outperforming the market after its early-year stumbles.<blockquote>我们预计收入约为 45 亿美元，上下浮动 1 亿美元，增长约同比增长 39%，环比增长约 4%预计同比增长将受到所有业务增长的推动。预计环比增长是由服务器和半定制销售的增长推动的。2021年全年，我们现在预计，在所有业务增长的推动下，2020 年收入将增长约 65%高于之前 60% 的指导值。（摘自 AMD 第三季度财报看涨期权）对于一家告诉您预计 2020 财年同比增长 65% 的公司来说，很明显它已经取得了惊人的业绩。因此，市场应该奖励AMD投资者。在经历了年初的挫折之后，AMD 股票的表现显然优于市场。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af9edf4c4d4b8055eee2f32456b6589d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">AMD est. revenue and EBITDA mean consensus. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>AMD是。收入和 EBITDA 意味着共识。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> However, we think investors need to consider how AMD will likely perform moving forward. Following its outstanding FQ3 report card, consensus estimates have also been revised upwards. AMD is estimated to post a revenue CAGR of 30.2% and an EBITDA CAGR of 50.4%. Compared to the company's FY21 revenue YoY growth guidance of 65%, it's a marked deceleration.<blockquote>然而，我们认为投资者需要考虑 AMD 未来的表现。继出色的第三季度成绩单之后，市场普遍预期也被上调。AMD 预计收入复合年增长率为 30.2%，EBITDA 复合年增长率为 50.4%。与该公司 2021 财年 65% 的收入同比增长指引相比，这是一个明显的放缓。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/970fd9b4cebec404a6c9bcc8c5b18140\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">AMD LTM revenue and EBITDA. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>AMD LTM 收入和 EBITDA。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> Importantly, AMD has also grown its LTM revenue and EBITDA by a CAGR of 31.2% and 160% over the last four years, respectively. Therefore, AMD is unlikely to post such monstrous growth moving forward. As a result, investors need to taper their expectations when considering buying its stock. They can't be expecting AMD to continue growing at such phenomenal growth rates incessantly. We know it sounds good, but it's simply not sustainable.<blockquote>重要的是，AMD 的 LTM 收入和 EBITDA 在过去四年中的复合年增长率分别为 31.2% 和 160%。因此，AMD 不太可能实现如此巨大的增长。因此，投资者在考虑购买其股票时需要降低预期。他们不能指望 AMD 继续以如此惊人的增长率不断增长。我们知道这听起来不错，但它根本不可持续。</blockquote> We can also observe from its FQ3 performance. Its segments' YoY growth was the slowest in FQ3'21 compared to the previous two quarters. So it's not slow per se, but the growth seems to be decelerating. Therefore, AMD investors, you have been reminded.<blockquote>我们也可以从其第三季度的表现中观察到。与前两个季度相比，2021 年第三季度其各部门的同比增长最慢。所以它本身并不慢，但增长似乎正在减速。因此，AMD的投资者们，你们已经被提醒了。</blockquote> Nvidia Is Expected To Post Slower Much Growth Than Before<blockquote>预计英伟达的增长将比以前慢得多</blockquote> Jensen Huang &amp; Co. will release its FQ3'22 report card on 17 November. Its earnings conferences have often been highly anticipated events in the past. Its investors, PC geeks, and gamers love NVDA.<blockquote>黄仁勋公司将于 11 月 17 日发布 22 财年第三季度成绩单。过去，其财报会议往往是备受期待的活动。它的投资者、PC极客和游戏玩家都喜欢NVDA。</blockquote> The company guided for $6.8B in FQ3 revenue on its previous earnings call. Consensus estimates are also in line with the company's guidance. However,in our previous Nvidia article, we highlighted that the company's revenue growth seems to be decelerating across its main segments.<blockquote>根据之前的盈利看涨期权，该公司预计第三季度收入为 $6.8B。共识估计也符合公司的指引。然而，在我们之前的 Nvidia 文章中，我们强调该公司主要细分市场的收入增长似乎正在放缓。</blockquote> Datacenter growth fell to 35% YoY in FQ2'22. Moreover, Gaming has also demonstrated signs of deceleration. Its growth in FQ2 also slowed to 85% YoY. As a result, the company's overall revenue growth slowed to 68.3% YoY in FQ2.<blockquote>2022 年第二季度数据中心同比增长降至 35%。而且，游戏也出现了放缓的迹象。第二季度的同比增长也放缓至 85%。受此影响，该公司第二季度整体收入同比增速放缓至68.3%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfa0d4e579274e870b43dadcb6aa0be7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">NVDA actual and est. quarterly revenue YoY growth. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>NVDA实际和预计。季度收入同比增长。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> Notably, even with the recently revised estimates, Nvidia is expected to post slower YoY growth in FQ3'22 and beyond. In fact, the deceleration looks alarming. Investors might have to taper their expectations of NVDA's gangbusters growth momentum moving forward. Nothing goes up in one straight line forever. Moving forward, revenue comps will get increasingly harder for Jensen Huang &amp; Co. to beat.<blockquote>值得注意的是，即使最近修订了预期，英伟达预计在 2022 年第三季度及以后的同比增长仍将放缓。事实上，减速看起来令人担忧。投资者可能不得不降低对 NVDA 未来强劲增长势头的预期。没有什么是永远沿一条直线上升的。展望未来，黄仁勋公司将越来越难以击败收入竞争。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0873d94239c63b839b483644a71fe429\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">NVDA earnings beats/misses. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium<blockquote>NVDA 盈利超出/超出预期。资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium</blockquote> Notwithstanding, we recognize that NVDA might also be sandbagging expectations in its guidance. We noted that NVDA has only missed one quarterly estimate in the last four years. It's an almost flawless performance. Notably, while NVDA has consistently outperformed its guidance, those beats were not incredibly massive. What we meant is investors should not totally disregard the consensus estimates as out of line. They have been pretty accurate over time. So while NVDA might have sandbagged its previous guidance to overdeliver potentially, they had not overdone it.<blockquote>尽管如此，我们认识到 NVDA 也可能在其指导中淡化预期。我们注意到，NVDA 在过去四年中仅未达到一个季度预期。这是一场几乎完美无瑕的表演。值得注意的是，尽管 NVDA 的表现一直优于其指引，但这些节拍并不是令人难以置信的巨大。我们的意思是，投资者不应该完全忽视普遍的估计，认为这是不合时宜的。随着时间的推移，它们变得相当准确。因此，尽管 NVDA 可能会将之前的指导视为可能超额交割，但他们并没有超额交割。</blockquote> We understand that some NVDA investors are anticipating its TAM expansion into its software stack, omniverse applications, and cloud-gaming expansion.<blockquote>我们了解到，一些 NVDA 投资者预计其 TAM 扩展到其软件堆栈、omniverse 应用程序和云游戏扩展。</blockquote> We recognize the incredible efforts invested by NVDA to transform itself into an AI company that has a huge GPU dominance. Coupled with its DPU and CPU forays, the hardware strategy looks very impressive. Moreover, Nvidia's AI Enterprise now offers its complete AI enterprise software suite to its customers. With the number of developers on its platform currently, we think its leadership is secure. The ecosystem will get even stronger over time as more developers come on board. If the company could pull through its Arm acquisition, we think there's no way that Intel or AMD could catch up.<blockquote>我们认可 NVDA 为将自己转变为一家在 GPU 领域占据巨大主导地位的人工智能公司所付出的巨大努力。加上其DPU和CPU的突破，硬件战略看起来非常令人印象深刻。此外，Nvidia 的 AI Enterprise 现在向客户提供完整的 AI Enterprise 软件套件。鉴于目前其平台上的开发者数量，我们认为其领导地位是安全的。随着越来越多的开发者加入，这个生态系统会变得更加强大。如果该公司能够完成对 Arm 的收购，我们认为英特尔或 AMD 不可能赶上。</blockquote> The main problem is that Nvidia couldn't/is not willing to put a timeline towhen they would derive meaningful revenues from its software stack.Nvidia could only add recently: \"But as [we] said, what [we] quoted to you for both NVIDIA enterprise as well as for Omniverse enterprise as being multibillion-dollar opportunities, we see these as very real opportunities, right?\"<blockquote>主要问题是Nvidia不能/不愿意为当他们从其软件堆栈中获得有意义的收入时。Nvidia 最近只能补充道：“但正如 [我们] 所说，[我们] 向您引用的 Nvidia enterprise 和 Omniverse enterprise 的价值数十亿美元的机会，我们认为这些是非常真实的机会，对吗？”</blockquote> So, Which Chip Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>那么，哪只芯片股票更值得购买呢？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97466fa7c05502ccb3d3fb348c1fbedd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">AMD stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.<blockquote>AMD 股票 EV/NTM EBITDA 3 年平均值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58c3575f8db9aafef9a106f36114a1b7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">NVDA stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.<blockquote>NVDA 股票 EV/NTM EBITDA 3 年平均值。</blockquote> AMD stock currently trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 29.7x. Its 3Y NTM EBITDA mean read 30.8x. Therefore, investors can argue that AMD might seem fairly valued right now. In contrast, NVDA stock trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 53.5x. Its 3Y NTM EBITDA mean is 41.6x. Thus, the stock is trading at about 28.6% above its 3Y mean. Hence, we think NVDA stock looks overvalued right now. Coupled with potentially slower revenue growth moving forward, a poor quarter might induce potential value compressions. Otherwise, a potential overcapacity problem in 2023 might also hit NVDA stock hard due to its rich valuation.<blockquote>AMD 股票目前的 EV/NTM EBITDA 为 29.7 倍。其 3 年 NTM EBITDA 平均值为 30.8 倍。因此，投资者可以认为 AMD 目前的估值可能相当合理。相比之下，NVDA 股票的 EV/NTM EBITDA 为 53.5 倍。其 3 年 NTM EBITDA 均值为 41.6 倍。因此，该股的交易价格比 3 年平均水平高出约 28.6%。因此，我们认为 NVDA 股票目前看起来被高估了。再加上未来收入增长可能放缓，糟糕的季度可能会导致潜在的价值压缩。否则，由于估值过高，2023年潜在的产能过剩问题也可能对NVDA股票造成沉重打击。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/467ed7eaf7cb4b7aed414494c2110be8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">INTC stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.<blockquote>INTC 股票 EV/NTM EBITDA 3 年平均值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55716ccea92c6410434d2f1ab7d3ef15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">INTC stock LTM dividend yield. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>INTC股票LTM股息收益率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> INTC stock trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 6.7x. It's markedly below its 3Y mean of 7.6x. Therefore, INTC is clearly a value play and not a growth play. It has also provided a respectable dividend yield for its investors over the years. As a result of its recent post-FQ3 sell-off, the annualized yield has recovered to 2.8%. INTC investors have been very comfortable sitting on its robust profitability and its solid dividend yields over the years. These value and dividend income investors don't invest in INTC stock for growth. They invest in it for its value and its dividends.<blockquote>INTC 股票的 EV/NTM EBITDA 为 6.7 倍。这明显低于 3 年平均值 7.6 倍。因此，INTC显然是一个价值游戏，而不是一个增长游戏。多年来，它还为投资者提供了可观的股息收益率。由于最近第三季度后的抛售，年化收益率已恢复至 2.8%。多年来，INTC 投资者对其强劲的盈利能力和稳定的股息收益率感到非常满意。这些价值和股息收入投资者投资 INTC 股票并不是为了增长。他们投资它是为了它的价值和股息。</blockquote> Pat Gelsinger's ambitious growth plans have thrown them a curveball that they didn't expect. When Intel communicated that these plans would have a discernible impact on its profitability, they feared for their dividends. Perhaps, Gelsinger is banking on a turnover of its investor base. The company could potentially be a huge winner if it succeeds on its growth roadmap. Given that the expectations are so low now, it doesn't even have to be immensely successful for the stock to be re-rated upwards. The huge difference in the growth premium between INTC and its faster growth peers is eye-catching. We think investors who have patience and are willing to ride out the short-term volatility might find INTC stock attractively valued right now. Coupled with a 2.8% dividend yield, it adds more gloss to its premise. Adding on a potential growth re-rating, the stock certainly looks attractive.<blockquote>帕特·基辛格雄心勃勃的增长计划给了他们一个意想不到的曲线球。当英特尔宣布这些计划将对其盈利能力产生明显影响时，他们担心自己的股息。也许，基辛格寄希望于其投资者基础的更替。如果该公司在其增长路线图上取得成功，它可能会成为一个巨大的赢家。鉴于现在的预期如此之低，该股甚至不需要取得巨大成功就能被重新上调评级。INTC 与其增长更快的同行之间增长溢价的巨大差异引人注目。我们认为，有耐心并愿意度过短期波动的投资者可能会发现 INTC 股票现在的估值很有吸引力。再加上 2.8% 的股息收益率，它为其前提增添了更多光彩。再加上潜在的增长重新评级，该股看起来确实很有吸引力。</blockquote> Despite that, INTC's long-term momentum has remained weak. The stock's long-term price action has also been much weaker than AMD stock. We recall that Buffett emphasized that he has no qualms about paying a fair price for a fantastic company.<blockquote>尽管如此，INTC的长期势头仍然疲软。该股的长期价格走势也远弱于 AMD 股票。我们记得巴菲特强调，他毫不犹豫地为一家出色的公司支付合理的价格。</blockquote> Therefore, we think&nbsp;AMD stock represents our preferred Buy&nbsp;for now.INTC stock is also a Buy&nbsp;for dividend and value investors. At the same time, we&nbsp;retain our Neutral rating on NVDA.<blockquote>因此，我们认为AMD 股票是我们的首选买入暂时。INTC 股票也值得买入对于股息和价值投资者。同时，我们维持对 NVDA 的中性评级.</blockquote> This article was written by&nbsp;JR Research.<blockquote>本文由JR Research撰写。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel, Nvidia, Or AMD: Which Chip Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>英特尔、英伟达还是 AMD：哪只芯片股票更值得购买？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel, Nvidia, Or AMD: Which Chip Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>英特尔、英伟达还是 AMD：哪只芯片股票更值得购买？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-10-29 11:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Intel reported a set of earnings that was pretty decent. However, the market was confused with its ambitious growth plans.</li> <li>Advanced Micro Devices continues its run of phenomenal results in FY21. Dr. Lisa Su &amp; Co. is making the most out of Intel's stumbles.</li> <li>Nvidia will issue its FQ3 report card on 17 November. The company's growth momentum is expected to continue slowing down.</li> <li>We discuss which semiconductor stock is the better buy now.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c8b907cc53a6667f686b7acaf873b0a\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>英特尔公布的收益相当不错。然而，市场对其雄心勃勃的增长计划感到困惑。</li><li>Advanced Micro Devices 在 2021 财年继续取得惊人的业绩。Lisa Su &amp; Co. 博士正在充分利用英特尔的失误。</li><li>英伟达将于11月17日发布第三季度成绩单。公司增长势头预计将继续放缓。</li><li>我们讨论现在哪种半导体股票更值得购买。</li></ul>杂项摄影/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) issued a fantastic FQ3 report card recently. The company also handily beat consensus estimates and reaffirmed AMD's position as one of the leading semiconductor companies.<blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) 最近发布了一份精彩的第三季度成绩单。该公司还轻松超出了市场普遍预期，并重申了 AMD 作为领先半导体公司之一的地位。</blockquote> Notably, the company made gains while Intel (INTC) reported a set of results that we thought were actually pretty fine. There were some concerns over underwhelming data center performance, but it was expected. However, the market didn't like what Pat Gelsinger &amp; Co. telegraphed and thrashed the stock after earnings. Intel communicated what it would cost on its quest to retake its process node leadership. However, it seems that investors weren't sure about the company's ambitious plans. Coupled with weakened profitability and free cash flow prospects, some value-oriented investors seemed to have headed for the exit.<blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司实现了上涨，而英特尔 (INTC) 报告了一系列我们认为实际上相当不错的业绩。人们对数据中心性能不佳表示担忧，但这是意料之中的。然而，市场并不喜欢 Pat Gelsinger &amp; Co. 在财报公布后发出的电报和对该股的猛烈抨击。英特尔传达了其寻求重新夺回工艺节点领导地位的成本。然而，投资者似乎并不确定该公司雄心勃勃的计划。再加上盈利能力减弱和自由现金流前景，一些价值导向的投资者似乎已经走向退出。</blockquote> Nvidia (NVDA) will issue its FQ3 report card on 17 November. The company had previously guided for a strong quarter. Jensen Huang &amp; Co. see \"sequential growth&nbsp;driven largely by accelerating demand in data center.\" The company also expects growth in each of its three markets, particularly in gaming. Investors' expectations are also high given AMD's robust performance. Hence, investors have eagerly anticipated NVDA's earnings release as NVDA stock pushed through a new all-time high (ATH) this week.<blockquote>英伟达 (NVDA) 将于 11 月 17 日发布第三季度成绩单。该公司此前曾预测本季度表现强劲。黄仁勋公司认为“主要由数据中心需求加速推动的连续增长”。该公司还预计其三个市场都将实现增长，尤其是游戏市场。鉴于 AMD 的强劲表现，投资者的期望也很高。因此，随着 NVDA 股价本周创下历史新高 (ATH)，投资者热切期待 NVDA 的财报发布。</blockquote> We will discuss which semiconductor stock is the better buy now between them.<blockquote>我们将讨论现在哪只半导体股票更值得购买。</blockquote> INTC, NVDA, AMD Stock YTD Performance<blockquote>INTC、NVDA、AMD 股票年初至今表现</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc276e3bd3b1b72a0413e8be2d14ebe3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">INTC, NVDA, AMD stock YTD performance (as of 27 October 21).<blockquote>INTC、NVDA、AMD股票年初至今表现（截至21年10月27日）。</blockquote> NVDA stock continues to enjoy a phenomenal year so far. The stock made a new ATH this week, as YTD returns surged to 87.3%. Bearish investors in NVDA can say all they want, but we have never adopted a bearish NVDA stock thesis. It just doesn't make sense. The stock has the best possible A+ in Seeking Alpha's momentum grade for the whole year. Hence, we really couldn't understand those bearish theses. AMD stock is in second place with a 33.3% YTD gain. It seems like the stock has lagged far behind NVDA stock's incredible performance. However, investors should consider the fact that AMD stock spent most of H1'21 in the red. Therefore, its huge momentum surge in H2'21 has been really impressive. Consequently, the stock's momentum is also given an A grade in Seeking Alpha.<blockquote>到目前为止，NVDA 股票继续享受非凡的一年。该股本周创下新高，年初至今回报率飙升至 87.3%。看跌 NVDA 的投资者可以畅所欲言，但我们从未采用看跌 NVDA 股票的论点。这根本说不通。该股在寻求 Alpha 全年动量评级方面拥有最好的 A+。因此，我们真的无法理解那些看跌的论点。AMD 股票位居第二，年初至今涨幅为 33.3%。该股似乎远远落后于 NVDA 股票令人难以置信的表现。然而，投资者应该考虑到 AMD 股票在 2021 年上半年的大部分时间里都处于亏损状态。因此，其在 H2'21 的巨大势头激增确实令人印象深刻。因此，该股的势头在 Seeking Alpha 中也被评为 A 级。</blockquote> In contrast, the perennial underperformer INTC stock continues to underperform. The stock started very brightly as it raced to a 40% YTD gain. However, its momentum has completely fizzled out. Currently, its YTD decline of 3.9% looks abysmal when compared to AMD stock and NVDA stock. In addition, Seeking Alpha also assigned it with a D+ rating in momentum.<blockquote>相比之下，长期表现不佳的 INTC 股票继续表现不佳。该股开局非常光明，年初至今上涨了 40%。然而，它的势头已经完全消失了。目前，与 AMD 股票和 NVDA 股票相比，其年初至今 3.9% 的跌幅看起来很糟糕。此外，Seeking Alpha 还在 momentum 上给予其 D+ 评级。</blockquote> Intel FQ3 Report Card Is Telling Of Its Weakening Leadership<blockquote>英特尔第三季度成绩单显示其领导地位正在减弱</blockquote> There's little doubt that AMD has made the most of its recent dominance over Intel. However, what's more concerning to Intel investors, and likewise encouraging to AMD investors, is the clarity provided by their respective CEOs.<blockquote>毫无疑问，AMD 充分利用了其最近对英特尔的统治地位。然而，更令英特尔投资者担忧、同样令 AMD 投资者感到鼓舞的是他们各自首席执行官提供的清晰度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f910460f850f7c0c3bd3508e0812fa7b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Intel LTM revenue by segment. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>按部门划分的英特尔 LTM 收入。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> Intel reported another underwhelming quarter, but we don't think it was unexpected. Sure, the company's data center business (DCG) continues to disappoint compared to NVDA and AMD. However, INTC investors shouldn't be surprised.<blockquote>英特尔公布的季度业绩又令人失望，但我们认为这并不出乎意料。当然，与 NVDA 和 AMD 相比，该公司的数据中心业务 (DCG) 仍然令人失望。然而，INTC 投资者不应感到惊讶。</blockquote> DCG quarterly revenue YoY growth came in at 10% in FQ3. However, DCG revenue has been on a declining trend on a last-twelve-months (LTM) basis since FQ2'20.In a recent AMD article, we mentioned that Omdia estimated that AMD's data center share crossed 15% in Q2'21 for the first time in history. In retrospect, Intel had almost complete dominance in this segment just four years ago. It clearly shows how the critical stumbles from its former management have derailed its previously \"unassailable\" leadership. Now, Gelsinger &amp; Co. are left with the unenviable task of trying to overturn Intel's sinking fortunes. With AMD having assumed the technological leadership at the expense of Intel, it certainly looks like an \"easy bet\" which the company will likely continue to outperform.<blockquote>DCG 第三季度季度收入同比增长 10%。然而，自 2020 年第二季度以来，DCG 的收入在过去 12 个月 (LTM) 的基础上一直呈下降趋势。在AMD最近的一篇文章中，我们提到Omdia估计AMD的数据中心份额在Q2’21历史上首次超过15%。回想起来，就在四年前，英特尔在这一领域几乎完全占据主导地位。它清楚地表明，前任管理层的严重失误是如何破坏了其之前“无懈可击”的领导力的。现在，基辛格公司面临着一项艰巨的任务，那就是试图扭转英特尔日益衰落的命运。随着 AMD 以英特尔为代价占据技术领先地位，这看起来肯定是一个“轻松的赌注”，该公司可能会继续跑赢大盘。</blockquote> Intel's client computing group's (CCG) performance was underwhelming in FQ3. Its revenue fell by 1.9% YoY and 4.4% QoQ, respectively. Notably, it came at a time when 2021 saw a strong resurgence in PC sales.In a recent Apple(AAPL) article, we mentioned that Apple's Mac segment had performed very well in 2021. In just the first three FQs, Mac has exceeded its revenue on a per FY basis over the last three years. Its resurgence is also in line with the trend observed in the industry.<blockquote>英特尔客户端计算集团 (CCG) 在第三季度的表现令人失望。其收入同比分别下降1.9%和4.4%。值得注意的是，它发生在2021年个人电脑销售强劲复苏之际。在苹果（AAPL）最近的一篇文章中，我们提到苹果的Mac部门在2021年表现非常好。仅在前三个 FQ 中，Mac 就超过了过去三年的每个财年的收入。它的复苏也符合业内观察到的趋势。</blockquote> Counterpoint Research noted that \"global PC shipments marked their sixth consecutive YoY growth in Q3 2021&nbsp;at 84.2 million units. This came despite the ongoing component shortages and other supply constraints.\" Despite that, the firm also emphasized that \"the 9.3% YoY growth during [Q3] implied decelerating PC shipment momentum after four consecutive quarters of double-digit YoY growth since Q3 2020.\"<blockquote>Counterpoint Research 指出，“2021 年第三季度，全球个人电脑出货量连续第六年同比增长，达到 8420 万台。尽管零部件短缺和其他供应限制持续存在，但情况依然如此。”尽管如此，该公司还强调，“[第三季度]9.3% 的同比增长意味着自 2020 年第三季度以来连续四个季度实现两位数同比增长后，个人电脑出货量势头正在放缓。”</blockquote> Notwithstanding, Mac seems to have picked up strongly in CQ3. IDC reported that&nbsp;Apple's YoY shipment growth in CQ2&nbsp;was 9.4%. Moreover, Counterpoint research pointed out that Mac YoY shipment growth accelerated to 10.6% in CQ3. Hence, it's interesting to note that Mac grew even faster than the industry average in CQ3. As a result, Mac's global market share grew to 8.7%.<blockquote>尽管如此，Mac 似乎在第三季度表现强劲。IDC报告称，苹果第二季度出货量同比增长9.4%。此外，Counterpoint research 指出，第三季度 Mac 出货量同比增长加速至 10.6%。因此，有趣的是，Mac在第三季度的增长速度甚至超过了行业平均水平。因此，Mac的全球市场份额增长到8.7%。</blockquote> Therefore, it seems like Apple has been doing very well since it decoupled from Intel's chips. Even though Gelsinger remains optimistic about winning back Apple's business through \"better products\" in the future, the divorce looks to be \"finalized\" for now. But investors in semiconductor companies should remember that never say never when it comes to technological leadership. Intel is still a highly profitable company and therefore has the wherewithal and conviction to compete. Whether it can overturn AMD's and NVDA's leadership remains to be seen. But never write the company off so early on.<blockquote>因此，苹果自从与英特尔芯片脱钩以来，似乎一直做得很好。尽管基辛格对未来通过“更好的产品”赢回苹果的业务仍然持乐观态度，但离婚目前看来已经“敲定”。但半导体公司的投资者应该记住，当涉及到技术领先地位时，永远不要说永远。英特尔仍然是一家高利润的公司，因此有足够的资金和信念去竞争。它能否推翻AMD和NVDA的领导地位还有待观察。但千万不要这么早就注销公司。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c622b359fd3a73cac53c0e4410177c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">INTC and AMD LTM gross margins. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>INTC 和 AMD LTM 毛利率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> Pat Gelsinger has telegraphed a highly ambitious plan to assume technological leadership. It's mainly predicated on its \"five process nodes in four years\" quest to assume foundry leadership from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). In addition, the company is also willing to \"reset\" its gross margins to compete with AMD and NVDA at the same time. Outgoing CFO George Davis emphasized:<blockquote>帕特·基辛格 (Pat Gelsinger) 宣布了一项雄心勃勃的计划，以占据技术领先地位。它主要基于其“四年内五个工艺节点”的追求，以从台积电 (TSM) 手中夺取代工领导权。此外，该公司还愿意“重置”毛利率，以同时与AMD和NVDA竞争。即将离任的首席财务官乔治·戴维斯强调：</blockquote> We expect to see our revenue growth accelerate to a 10% to 12% CAGR over the next 4 to 5 years. For gross margin, with the impact of our investment in capacity and the acceleration of our process technology, we expect gross margins between 51% and 53% over the next 2 to 3 yearsbefore moving upward. (from Intel Q3 earnings call) We find it interesting. Yes, the investments for process leadership and capacity expansion will affect its profitability. But Intel recognizes that it's at least a five-year process. At this time, is the company going to let Dr. Lisa Su &amp; Co. take all the glory while Intel works out its troubles? Obviously not. Pat recognizes that he needs a stop-gap solution. Short of saying \"we are cutting prices now\" to compete with AMD, this is as close as it gets.<blockquote>我们预计未来 4 至 5 年内收入增长将加速至 10% 至 12% 的复合年增长率.就毛利率而言，随着我们对产能的投资和我们工艺技术的加速，我们预计未来 2 至 3 年毛利率将在 51% 至 53% 之间在向上移动之前。（摘自英特尔第三季度财报看涨期权）我们觉得这很有趣。是的，流程领导和产能扩张的投资将影响其盈利能力。但英特尔认识到这至少是一个五年的过程。此时，该公司是否要让 Lisa Su &amp; Co. 博士承担所有荣耀，而英特尔则解决其问题？显然不是。帕特认识到他需要一个权宜之计的解决方案。除了说“我们现在正在降价”来与AMD竞争之外，这是最接近的了。</blockquote> We also highlighted in our previous AMD article (published on 20 September) that \"Intel is recently reported to be ready to lower the prices for its data center chips. The move was deemed necessary \"to lure back data center operators&nbsp;that have switched to rival Advanced Micro Devices.\" Otherwise, how can Gelsinger &amp; Co. be so confident in stopping the rot from AMD's continued success? Intel has telegraphed a highly ambitious plan to increase revenue by a CAGR of 10% to 12% over the next four to five years. Intel is trying to transform itself back into a growth company. If you want to grow and don't have technological leadership, you must give up some profits. That makes absolute sense.<blockquote>我们还在之前的AMD文章（发表于9月20日）中强调，“最近有报道称，英特尔准备降低其数据中心芯片的价格。此举被认为是必要的”，以吸引已经转向竞争对手先进微设备的数据中心运营商回来。”否则，基辛格公司怎么能如此有信心阻止 AMD 的持续成功？英特尔宣布了一项雄心勃勃的计划，即在未来四到五年内将收入复合年增长率提高 10% 到 12%。英特尔正试图将自己转变为一家成长型公司。如果你想成长，又没有技术领先，就必须放弃一些利润。这绝对有道理。</blockquote> The good thing is, Intel is already a highly profitable company. Its gross margins had declined markedly from the days when it posted margins north of 60%. However, its LTM margin of 56.3% is still significantly higher than AMD's 46.8%. Therefore, Intel's plans are credible. The company will now go head-on to compete with AMD in pricing while investing in assuming foundry leadership. Dr. Lisa Su &amp; Co., you have been cautioned.<blockquote>好的一面是，英特尔已经是一家高利润的公司。自利润率超过 60% 时以来，其毛利率明显下降。不过，其56.3%的LTM利润率仍明显高于AMD的46.8%。因此，英特尔的计划是可信的。该公司现在将在定价方面与 AMD 正面竞争，同时投资占据代工领先地位。苏丽莎博士，你已经被警告过了。</blockquote> AMD Continues Its Gangbusters Growth<blockquote>AMD 继续强劲增长</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fb460f1a24eeac1ff3e46cc0ebd78f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">AMD quarterly revenue by segment. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>AMD 按细分市场划分的季度收入。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5df5298fbc9733b0c0a8b1110c401ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">AMD revenue segments YoY growth. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>AMD 收入部门同比增长。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> There's little doubt that Dr. Lisa Su &amp; Co. have made the most of Intel's absolute mess. The company has been firing on all cylinders as it outperformed estimates easily. It continues to report tremendous strength in all its segments. FQ3 saw Advanced Micro Devices report 43.9% YoY growth in revenue for its computing and graphics business. Moreover, its enterprise, embedded, and semi-custom (EESC) segment continues its phenomenal run as AMD posted YoY revenue growth of 68.9%. Therefore, AMD has certainly made the most of Intel's losses in data center. Moreover, its computing and graphics growth has also been fantastic. AMD has undoubtedly grown much faster than the market.<blockquote>毫无疑问，Lisa Su &amp; Co. 博士充分利用了英特尔的绝对混乱。该公司一直在全力以赴，因为它的表现轻松超出了预期。它在所有细分市场继续表现出巨大的实力。第三季度，Advanced Micro Devices 的计算和图形业务收入同比增长 43.9%。此外，随着 AMD 的收入同比增长 68.9%，其企业、嵌入式和半定制 (EESC) 部门继续保持惊人的表现。因此，AMD无疑将英特尔在数据中心的损失发挥到了最大。此外，其计算和图形增长也非常惊人。AMD的增长速度无疑比市场快得多。</blockquote> In fact, AMD continues to expect strong sequential growth into FQ4. AMD emphasized:<blockquote>事实上，AMD 继续预计第四季度将实现强劲的环比增长。AMD强调：</blockquote> We expect revenue to be approximately $4.5 billion, plus or minus $100 million, an increase of approximately 39% year-over-year and approximately 4% sequentially. The year-over-year increase is expected to be driven by growth across all businesses. The quarter-over-quarter increase is expected to be driven by higher server and semi-custom sales. For the full year 2021, we now expect revenue to increase approximately 65% over 2020, driven by growth across all businesses, up from the prior guidance of 60%. (from AMD FQ3 earnings call) For a company that tells you that it expects a 65% YoY growth over FY20, it's clear it has achieved phenomenal results. Therefore, the market should reward AMD investors. AMD stock has clearly been outperforming the market after its early-year stumbles.<blockquote>我们预计收入约为 45 亿美元，上下浮动 1 亿美元，增长约同比增长 39%，环比增长约 4%预计同比增长将受到所有业务增长的推动。预计环比增长是由服务器和半定制销售的增长推动的。2021年全年，我们现在预计，在所有业务增长的推动下，2020 年收入将增长约 65%高于之前 60% 的指导值。（摘自 AMD 第三季度财报看涨期权）对于一家告诉您预计 2020 财年同比增长 65% 的公司来说，很明显它已经取得了惊人的业绩。因此，市场应该奖励AMD投资者。在经历了年初的挫折之后，AMD 股票的表现显然优于市场。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af9edf4c4d4b8055eee2f32456b6589d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">AMD est. revenue and EBITDA mean consensus. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>AMD是。收入和 EBITDA 意味着共识。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> However, we think investors need to consider how AMD will likely perform moving forward. Following its outstanding FQ3 report card, consensus estimates have also been revised upwards. AMD is estimated to post a revenue CAGR of 30.2% and an EBITDA CAGR of 50.4%. Compared to the company's FY21 revenue YoY growth guidance of 65%, it's a marked deceleration.<blockquote>然而，我们认为投资者需要考虑 AMD 未来的表现。继出色的第三季度成绩单之后，市场普遍预期也被上调。AMD 预计收入复合年增长率为 30.2%，EBITDA 复合年增长率为 50.4%。与该公司 2021 财年 65% 的收入同比增长指引相比，这是一个明显的放缓。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/970fd9b4cebec404a6c9bcc8c5b18140\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">AMD LTM revenue and EBITDA. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>AMD LTM 收入和 EBITDA。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> Importantly, AMD has also grown its LTM revenue and EBITDA by a CAGR of 31.2% and 160% over the last four years, respectively. Therefore, AMD is unlikely to post such monstrous growth moving forward. As a result, investors need to taper their expectations when considering buying its stock. They can't be expecting AMD to continue growing at such phenomenal growth rates incessantly. We know it sounds good, but it's simply not sustainable.<blockquote>重要的是，AMD 的 LTM 收入和 EBITDA 在过去四年中的复合年增长率分别为 31.2% 和 160%。因此，AMD 不太可能实现如此巨大的增长。因此，投资者在考虑购买其股票时需要降低预期。他们不能指望 AMD 继续以如此惊人的增长率不断增长。我们知道这听起来不错，但它根本不可持续。</blockquote> We can also observe from its FQ3 performance. Its segments' YoY growth was the slowest in FQ3'21 compared to the previous two quarters. So it's not slow per se, but the growth seems to be decelerating. Therefore, AMD investors, you have been reminded.<blockquote>我们也可以从其第三季度的表现中观察到。与前两个季度相比，2021 年第三季度其各部门的同比增长最慢。所以它本身并不慢，但增长似乎正在减速。因此，AMD的投资者们，你们已经被提醒了。</blockquote> Nvidia Is Expected To Post Slower Much Growth Than Before<blockquote>预计英伟达的增长将比以前慢得多</blockquote> Jensen Huang &amp; Co. will release its FQ3'22 report card on 17 November. Its earnings conferences have often been highly anticipated events in the past. Its investors, PC geeks, and gamers love NVDA.<blockquote>黄仁勋公司将于 11 月 17 日发布 22 财年第三季度成绩单。过去，其财报会议往往是备受期待的活动。它的投资者、PC极客和游戏玩家都喜欢NVDA。</blockquote> The company guided for $6.8B in FQ3 revenue on its previous earnings call. Consensus estimates are also in line with the company's guidance. However,in our previous Nvidia article, we highlighted that the company's revenue growth seems to be decelerating across its main segments.<blockquote>根据之前的盈利看涨期权，该公司预计第三季度收入为 $6.8B。共识估计也符合公司的指引。然而，在我们之前的 Nvidia 文章中，我们强调该公司主要细分市场的收入增长似乎正在放缓。</blockquote> Datacenter growth fell to 35% YoY in FQ2'22. Moreover, Gaming has also demonstrated signs of deceleration. Its growth in FQ2 also slowed to 85% YoY. As a result, the company's overall revenue growth slowed to 68.3% YoY in FQ2.<blockquote>2022 年第二季度数据中心同比增长降至 35%。而且，游戏也出现了放缓的迹象。第二季度的同比增长也放缓至 85%。受此影响，该公司第二季度整体收入同比增速放缓至68.3%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfa0d4e579274e870b43dadcb6aa0be7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">NVDA actual and est. quarterly revenue YoY growth. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>NVDA实际和预计。季度收入同比增长。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> Notably, even with the recently revised estimates, Nvidia is expected to post slower YoY growth in FQ3'22 and beyond. In fact, the deceleration looks alarming. Investors might have to taper their expectations of NVDA's gangbusters growth momentum moving forward. Nothing goes up in one straight line forever. Moving forward, revenue comps will get increasingly harder for Jensen Huang &amp; Co. to beat.<blockquote>值得注意的是，即使最近修订了预期，英伟达预计在 2022 年第三季度及以后的同比增长仍将放缓。事实上，减速看起来令人担忧。投资者可能不得不降低对 NVDA 未来强劲增长势头的预期。没有什么是永远沿一条直线上升的。展望未来，黄仁勋公司将越来越难以击败收入竞争。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0873d94239c63b839b483644a71fe429\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">NVDA earnings beats/misses. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium<blockquote>NVDA 盈利超出/超出预期。资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium</blockquote> Notwithstanding, we recognize that NVDA might also be sandbagging expectations in its guidance. We noted that NVDA has only missed one quarterly estimate in the last four years. It's an almost flawless performance. Notably, while NVDA has consistently outperformed its guidance, those beats were not incredibly massive. What we meant is investors should not totally disregard the consensus estimates as out of line. They have been pretty accurate over time. So while NVDA might have sandbagged its previous guidance to overdeliver potentially, they had not overdone it.<blockquote>尽管如此，我们认识到 NVDA 也可能在其指导中淡化预期。我们注意到，NVDA 在过去四年中仅未达到一个季度预期。这是一场几乎完美无瑕的表演。值得注意的是，尽管 NVDA 的表现一直优于其指引，但这些节拍并不是令人难以置信的巨大。我们的意思是，投资者不应该完全忽视普遍的估计，认为这是不合时宜的。随着时间的推移，它们变得相当准确。因此，尽管 NVDA 可能会将之前的指导视为可能超额交割，但他们并没有超额交割。</blockquote> We understand that some NVDA investors are anticipating its TAM expansion into its software stack, omniverse applications, and cloud-gaming expansion.<blockquote>我们了解到，一些 NVDA 投资者预计其 TAM 扩展到其软件堆栈、omniverse 应用程序和云游戏扩展。</blockquote> We recognize the incredible efforts invested by NVDA to transform itself into an AI company that has a huge GPU dominance. Coupled with its DPU and CPU forays, the hardware strategy looks very impressive. Moreover, Nvidia's AI Enterprise now offers its complete AI enterprise software suite to its customers. With the number of developers on its platform currently, we think its leadership is secure. The ecosystem will get even stronger over time as more developers come on board. If the company could pull through its Arm acquisition, we think there's no way that Intel or AMD could catch up.<blockquote>我们认可 NVDA 为将自己转变为一家在 GPU 领域占据巨大主导地位的人工智能公司所付出的巨大努力。加上其DPU和CPU的突破，硬件战略看起来非常令人印象深刻。此外，Nvidia 的 AI Enterprise 现在向客户提供完整的 AI Enterprise 软件套件。鉴于目前其平台上的开发者数量，我们认为其领导地位是安全的。随着越来越多的开发者加入，这个生态系统会变得更加强大。如果该公司能够完成对 Arm 的收购，我们认为英特尔或 AMD 不可能赶上。</blockquote> The main problem is that Nvidia couldn't/is not willing to put a timeline towhen they would derive meaningful revenues from its software stack.Nvidia could only add recently: \"But as [we] said, what [we] quoted to you for both NVIDIA enterprise as well as for Omniverse enterprise as being multibillion-dollar opportunities, we see these as very real opportunities, right?\"<blockquote>主要问题是Nvidia不能/不愿意为当他们从其软件堆栈中获得有意义的收入时。Nvidia 最近只能补充道：“但正如 [我们] 所说，[我们] 向您引用的 Nvidia enterprise 和 Omniverse enterprise 的价值数十亿美元的机会，我们认为这些是非常真实的机会，对吗？”</blockquote> So, Which Chip Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>那么，哪只芯片股票更值得购买呢？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97466fa7c05502ccb3d3fb348c1fbedd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">AMD stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.<blockquote>AMD 股票 EV/NTM EBITDA 3 年平均值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58c3575f8db9aafef9a106f36114a1b7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">NVDA stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.<blockquote>NVDA 股票 EV/NTM EBITDA 3 年平均值。</blockquote> AMD stock currently trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 29.7x. Its 3Y NTM EBITDA mean read 30.8x. Therefore, investors can argue that AMD might seem fairly valued right now. In contrast, NVDA stock trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 53.5x. Its 3Y NTM EBITDA mean is 41.6x. Thus, the stock is trading at about 28.6% above its 3Y mean. Hence, we think NVDA stock looks overvalued right now. Coupled with potentially slower revenue growth moving forward, a poor quarter might induce potential value compressions. Otherwise, a potential overcapacity problem in 2023 might also hit NVDA stock hard due to its rich valuation.<blockquote>AMD 股票目前的 EV/NTM EBITDA 为 29.7 倍。其 3 年 NTM EBITDA 平均值为 30.8 倍。因此，投资者可以认为 AMD 目前的估值可能相当合理。相比之下，NVDA 股票的 EV/NTM EBITDA 为 53.5 倍。其 3 年 NTM EBITDA 均值为 41.6 倍。因此，该股的交易价格比 3 年平均水平高出约 28.6%。因此，我们认为 NVDA 股票目前看起来被高估了。再加上未来收入增长可能放缓，糟糕的季度可能会导致潜在的价值压缩。否则，由于估值过高，2023年潜在的产能过剩问题也可能对NVDA股票造成沉重打击。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/467ed7eaf7cb4b7aed414494c2110be8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">INTC stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.<blockquote>INTC 股票 EV/NTM EBITDA 3 年平均值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55716ccea92c6410434d2f1ab7d3ef15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">INTC stock LTM dividend yield. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>INTC股票LTM股息收益率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> INTC stock trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 6.7x. It's markedly below its 3Y mean of 7.6x. Therefore, INTC is clearly a value play and not a growth play. It has also provided a respectable dividend yield for its investors over the years. As a result of its recent post-FQ3 sell-off, the annualized yield has recovered to 2.8%. INTC investors have been very comfortable sitting on its robust profitability and its solid dividend yields over the years. These value and dividend income investors don't invest in INTC stock for growth. They invest in it for its value and its dividends.<blockquote>INTC 股票的 EV/NTM EBITDA 为 6.7 倍。这明显低于 3 年平均值 7.6 倍。因此，INTC显然是一个价值游戏，而不是一个增长游戏。多年来，它还为投资者提供了可观的股息收益率。由于最近第三季度后的抛售，年化收益率已恢复至 2.8%。多年来，INTC 投资者对其强劲的盈利能力和稳定的股息收益率感到非常满意。这些价值和股息收入投资者投资 INTC 股票并不是为了增长。他们投资它是为了它的价值和股息。</blockquote> Pat Gelsinger's ambitious growth plans have thrown them a curveball that they didn't expect. When Intel communicated that these plans would have a discernible impact on its profitability, they feared for their dividends. Perhaps, Gelsinger is banking on a turnover of its investor base. The company could potentially be a huge winner if it succeeds on its growth roadmap. Given that the expectations are so low now, it doesn't even have to be immensely successful for the stock to be re-rated upwards. The huge difference in the growth premium between INTC and its faster growth peers is eye-catching. We think investors who have patience and are willing to ride out the short-term volatility might find INTC stock attractively valued right now. Coupled with a 2.8% dividend yield, it adds more gloss to its premise. Adding on a potential growth re-rating, the stock certainly looks attractive.<blockquote>帕特·基辛格雄心勃勃的增长计划给了他们一个意想不到的曲线球。当英特尔宣布这些计划将对其盈利能力产生明显影响时，他们担心自己的股息。也许，基辛格寄希望于其投资者基础的更替。如果该公司在其增长路线图上取得成功，它可能会成为一个巨大的赢家。鉴于现在的预期如此之低，该股甚至不需要取得巨大成功就能被重新上调评级。INTC 与其增长更快的同行之间增长溢价的巨大差异引人注目。我们认为，有耐心并愿意度过短期波动的投资者可能会发现 INTC 股票现在的估值很有吸引力。再加上 2.8% 的股息收益率，它为其前提增添了更多光彩。再加上潜在的增长重新评级，该股看起来确实很有吸引力。</blockquote> Despite that, INTC's long-term momentum has remained weak. The stock's long-term price action has also been much weaker than AMD stock. We recall that Buffett emphasized that he has no qualms about paying a fair price for a fantastic company.<blockquote>尽管如此，INTC的长期势头仍然疲软。该股的长期价格走势也远弱于 AMD 股票。我们记得巴菲特强调，他毫不犹豫地为一家出色的公司支付合理的价格。</blockquote> Therefore, we think&nbsp;AMD stock represents our preferred Buy&nbsp;for now.INTC stock is also a Buy&nbsp;for dividend and value investors. At the same time, we&nbsp;retain our Neutral rating on NVDA.<blockquote>因此，我们认为AMD 股票是我们的首选买入暂时。INTC 股票也值得买入对于股息和价值投资者。同时，我们维持对 NVDA 的中性评级.</blockquote> This article was written by&nbsp;JR Research.<blockquote>本文由JR Research撰写。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4463134-intel-nvidia-amd-chip-stock-better-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","AMD":"美国超微公司","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4463134-intel-nvidia-amd-chip-stock-better-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122237204","content_text":"Summary\n\nIntel reported a set of earnings that was pretty decent. However, the market was confused with its ambitious growth plans.\nAdvanced Micro Devices continues its run of phenomenal results in FY21. Dr. Lisa Su & Co. is making the most out of Intel's stumbles.\nNvidia will issue its FQ3 report card on 17 November. The company's growth momentum is expected to continue slowing down.\nWe discuss which semiconductor stock is the better buy now.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) issued a fantastic FQ3 report card recently. The company also handily beat consensus estimates and reaffirmed AMD's position as one of the leading semiconductor companies.\nNotably, the company made gains while Intel (INTC) reported a set of results that we thought were actually pretty fine. There were some concerns over underwhelming data center performance, but it was expected. However, the market didn't like what Pat Gelsinger & Co. telegraphed and thrashed the stock after earnings. Intel communicated what it would cost on its quest to retake its process node leadership. However, it seems that investors weren't sure about the company's ambitious plans. Coupled with weakened profitability and free cash flow prospects, some value-oriented investors seemed to have headed for the exit.\nNvidia (NVDA) will issue its FQ3 report card on 17 November. The company had previously guided for a strong quarter. Jensen Huang & Co. see \"sequential growth driven largely by accelerating demand in data center.\" The company also expects growth in each of its three markets, particularly in gaming. Investors' expectations are also high given AMD's robust performance. Hence, investors have eagerly anticipated NVDA's earnings release as NVDA stock pushed through a new all-time high (ATH) this week.\nWe will discuss which semiconductor stock is the better buy now between them.\nINTC, NVDA, AMD Stock YTD Performance\nINTC, NVDA, AMD stock YTD performance (as of 27 October 21).\nNVDA stock continues to enjoy a phenomenal year so far. The stock made a new ATH this week, as YTD returns surged to 87.3%. Bearish investors in NVDA can say all they want, but we have never adopted a bearish NVDA stock thesis. It just doesn't make sense. The stock has the best possible A+ in Seeking Alpha's momentum grade for the whole year. Hence, we really couldn't understand those bearish theses. AMD stock is in second place with a 33.3% YTD gain. It seems like the stock has lagged far behind NVDA stock's incredible performance. However, investors should consider the fact that AMD stock spent most of H1'21 in the red. Therefore, its huge momentum surge in H2'21 has been really impressive. Consequently, the stock's momentum is also given an A grade in Seeking Alpha.\nIn contrast, the perennial underperformer INTC stock continues to underperform. The stock started very brightly as it raced to a 40% YTD gain. However, its momentum has completely fizzled out. Currently, its YTD decline of 3.9% looks abysmal when compared to AMD stock and NVDA stock. In addition, Seeking Alpha also assigned it with a D+ rating in momentum.\nIntel FQ3 Report Card Is Telling Of Its Weakening Leadership\nThere's little doubt that AMD has made the most of its recent dominance over Intel. However, what's more concerning to Intel investors, and likewise encouraging to AMD investors, is the clarity provided by their respective CEOs.\nIntel LTM revenue by segment. Data source: Company filings\nIntel reported another underwhelming quarter, but we don't think it was unexpected. Sure, the company's data center business (DCG) continues to disappoint compared to NVDA and AMD. However, INTC investors shouldn't be surprised.\nDCG quarterly revenue YoY growth came in at 10% in FQ3. However, DCG revenue has been on a declining trend on a last-twelve-months (LTM) basis since FQ2'20.In a recent AMD article, we mentioned that Omdia estimated that AMD's data center share crossed 15% in Q2'21 for the first time in history. In retrospect, Intel had almost complete dominance in this segment just four years ago. It clearly shows how the critical stumbles from its former management have derailed its previously \"unassailable\" leadership. Now, Gelsinger & Co. are left with the unenviable task of trying to overturn Intel's sinking fortunes. With AMD having assumed the technological leadership at the expense of Intel, it certainly looks like an \"easy bet\" which the company will likely continue to outperform.\nIntel's client computing group's (CCG) performance was underwhelming in FQ3. Its revenue fell by 1.9% YoY and 4.4% QoQ, respectively. Notably, it came at a time when 2021 saw a strong resurgence in PC sales.In a recent Apple(AAPL) article, we mentioned that Apple's Mac segment had performed very well in 2021. In just the first three FQs, Mac has exceeded its revenue on a per FY basis over the last three years. Its resurgence is also in line with the trend observed in the industry.\nCounterpoint Research noted that \"global PC shipments marked their sixth consecutive YoY growth in Q3 2021 at 84.2 million units. This came despite the ongoing component shortages and other supply constraints.\" Despite that, the firm also emphasized that \"the 9.3% YoY growth during [Q3] implied decelerating PC shipment momentum after four consecutive quarters of double-digit YoY growth since Q3 2020.\"\nNotwithstanding, Mac seems to have picked up strongly in CQ3. IDC reported that Apple's YoY shipment growth in CQ2 was 9.4%. Moreover, Counterpoint research pointed out that Mac YoY shipment growth accelerated to 10.6% in CQ3. Hence, it's interesting to note that Mac grew even faster than the industry average in CQ3. As a result, Mac's global market share grew to 8.7%.\nTherefore, it seems like Apple has been doing very well since it decoupled from Intel's chips. Even though Gelsinger remains optimistic about winning back Apple's business through \"better products\" in the future, the divorce looks to be \"finalized\" for now. But investors in semiconductor companies should remember that never say never when it comes to technological leadership. Intel is still a highly profitable company and therefore has the wherewithal and conviction to compete. Whether it can overturn AMD's and NVDA's leadership remains to be seen. But never write the company off so early on.\nINTC and AMD LTM gross margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nPat Gelsinger has telegraphed a highly ambitious plan to assume technological leadership. It's mainly predicated on its \"five process nodes in four years\" quest to assume foundry leadership from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). In addition, the company is also willing to \"reset\" its gross margins to compete with AMD and NVDA at the same time. Outgoing CFO George Davis emphasized:\n\nWe expect to see our revenue growth accelerate to a 10% to 12% CAGR over the next 4 to 5 years. For gross margin, with the impact of our investment in capacity and the acceleration of our process technology, \n we expect gross margins between 51% and 53% over the next 2 to 3 yearsbefore moving upward. (from Intel Q3 earnings call)\n\nWe find it interesting. Yes, the investments for process leadership and capacity expansion will affect its profitability. But Intel recognizes that it's at least a five-year process. At this time, is the company going to let Dr. Lisa Su & Co. take all the glory while Intel works out its troubles? Obviously not. Pat recognizes that he needs a stop-gap solution. Short of saying \"we are cutting prices now\" to compete with AMD, this is as close as it gets.\nWe also highlighted in our previous AMD article (published on 20 September) that \"Intel is recently reported to be ready to lower the prices for its data center chips. The move was deemed necessary \"to lure back data center operators that have switched to rival Advanced Micro Devices.\" Otherwise, how can Gelsinger & Co. be so confident in stopping the rot from AMD's continued success? Intel has telegraphed a highly ambitious plan to increase revenue by a CAGR of 10% to 12% over the next four to five years. Intel is trying to transform itself back into a growth company. If you want to grow and don't have technological leadership, you must give up some profits. That makes absolute sense.\nThe good thing is, Intel is already a highly profitable company. Its gross margins had declined markedly from the days when it posted margins north of 60%. However, its LTM margin of 56.3% is still significantly higher than AMD's 46.8%. Therefore, Intel's plans are credible. The company will now go head-on to compete with AMD in pricing while investing in assuming foundry leadership. Dr. Lisa Su & Co., you have been cautioned.\nAMD Continues Its Gangbusters Growth\nAMD quarterly revenue by segment. Data source: Company filings\nAMD revenue segments YoY growth. Data source: Company filings\nThere's little doubt that Dr. Lisa Su & Co. have made the most of Intel's absolute mess. The company has been firing on all cylinders as it outperformed estimates easily. It continues to report tremendous strength in all its segments. FQ3 saw Advanced Micro Devices report 43.9% YoY growth in revenue for its computing and graphics business. Moreover, its enterprise, embedded, and semi-custom (EESC) segment continues its phenomenal run as AMD posted YoY revenue growth of 68.9%. Therefore, AMD has certainly made the most of Intel's losses in data center. Moreover, its computing and graphics growth has also been fantastic. AMD has undoubtedly grown much faster than the market.\nIn fact, AMD continues to expect strong sequential growth into FQ4. AMD emphasized:\n\n We expect revenue to be approximately $4.5 billion, plus or minus $100 million, an increase of approximately \n 39% year-over-year and approximately 4% sequentially. The year-over-year increase is expected to be driven by growth across all businesses. The quarter-over-quarter increase is expected to be driven by higher server and semi-custom sales. For the full year 2021, \n we now expect revenue to increase approximately 65% over 2020, driven by growth across all businesses, up from the prior guidance of 60%. (from AMD FQ3 earnings call)\n\nFor a company that tells you that it expects a 65% YoY growth over FY20, it's clear it has achieved phenomenal results. Therefore, the market should reward AMD investors. AMD stock has clearly been outperforming the market after its early-year stumbles.\nAMD est. revenue and EBITDA mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nHowever, we think investors need to consider how AMD will likely perform moving forward. Following its outstanding FQ3 report card, consensus estimates have also been revised upwards. AMD is estimated to post a revenue CAGR of 30.2% and an EBITDA CAGR of 50.4%. Compared to the company's FY21 revenue YoY growth guidance of 65%, it's a marked deceleration.\nAMD LTM revenue and EBITDA. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nImportantly, AMD has also grown its LTM revenue and EBITDA by a CAGR of 31.2% and 160% over the last four years, respectively. Therefore, AMD is unlikely to post such monstrous growth moving forward. As a result, investors need to taper their expectations when considering buying its stock. They can't be expecting AMD to continue growing at such phenomenal growth rates incessantly. We know it sounds good, but it's simply not sustainable.\nWe can also observe from its FQ3 performance. Its segments' YoY growth was the slowest in FQ3'21 compared to the previous two quarters. So it's not slow per se, but the growth seems to be decelerating. Therefore, AMD investors, you have been reminded.\nNvidia Is Expected To Post Slower Much Growth Than Before\nJensen Huang & Co. will release its FQ3'22 report card on 17 November. Its earnings conferences have often been highly anticipated events in the past. Its investors, PC geeks, and gamers love NVDA.\nThe company guided for $6.8B in FQ3 revenue on its previous earnings call. Consensus estimates are also in line with the company's guidance. However,in our previous Nvidia article, we highlighted that the company's revenue growth seems to be decelerating across its main segments.\nDatacenter growth fell to 35% YoY in FQ2'22. Moreover, Gaming has also demonstrated signs of deceleration. Its growth in FQ2 also slowed to 85% YoY. As a result, the company's overall revenue growth slowed to 68.3% YoY in FQ2.\nNVDA actual and est. quarterly revenue YoY growth. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nNotably, even with the recently revised estimates, Nvidia is expected to post slower YoY growth in FQ3'22 and beyond. In fact, the deceleration looks alarming. Investors might have to taper their expectations of NVDA's gangbusters growth momentum moving forward. Nothing goes up in one straight line forever. Moving forward, revenue comps will get increasingly harder for Jensen Huang & Co. to beat.\nNVDA earnings beats/misses. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium\nNotwithstanding, we recognize that NVDA might also be sandbagging expectations in its guidance. We noted that NVDA has only missed one quarterly estimate in the last four years. It's an almost flawless performance. Notably, while NVDA has consistently outperformed its guidance, those beats were not incredibly massive. What we meant is investors should not totally disregard the consensus estimates as out of line. They have been pretty accurate over time. So while NVDA might have sandbagged its previous guidance to overdeliver potentially, they had not overdone it.\nWe understand that some NVDA investors are anticipating its TAM expansion into its software stack, omniverse applications, and cloud-gaming expansion.\nWe recognize the incredible efforts invested by NVDA to transform itself into an AI company that has a huge GPU dominance. Coupled with its DPU and CPU forays, the hardware strategy looks very impressive. Moreover, Nvidia's AI Enterprise now offers its complete AI enterprise software suite to its customers. With the number of developers on its platform currently, we think its leadership is secure. The ecosystem will get even stronger over time as more developers come on board. If the company could pull through its Arm acquisition, we think there's no way that Intel or AMD could catch up.\nThe main problem is that Nvidia couldn't/is not willing to put a timeline towhen they would derive meaningful revenues from its software stack.Nvidia could only add recently: \"But as [we] said, what [we] quoted to you for both NVIDIA enterprise as well as for Omniverse enterprise as being multibillion-dollar opportunities, we see these as very real opportunities, right?\"\nSo, Which Chip Stock Is The Better Buy?\nAMD stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.\nNVDA stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.\nAMD stock currently trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 29.7x. Its 3Y NTM EBITDA mean read 30.8x. Therefore, investors can argue that AMD might seem fairly valued right now. In contrast, NVDA stock trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 53.5x. Its 3Y NTM EBITDA mean is 41.6x. Thus, the stock is trading at about 28.6% above its 3Y mean. Hence, we think NVDA stock looks overvalued right now. Coupled with potentially slower revenue growth moving forward, a poor quarter might induce potential value compressions. Otherwise, a potential overcapacity problem in 2023 might also hit NVDA stock hard due to its rich valuation.\nINTC stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.\nINTC stock LTM dividend yield. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nINTC stock trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 6.7x. It's markedly below its 3Y mean of 7.6x. Therefore, INTC is clearly a value play and not a growth play. It has also provided a respectable dividend yield for its investors over the years. As a result of its recent post-FQ3 sell-off, the annualized yield has recovered to 2.8%. INTC investors have been very comfortable sitting on its robust profitability and its solid dividend yields over the years. These value and dividend income investors don't invest in INTC stock for growth. They invest in it for its value and its dividends.\nPat Gelsinger's ambitious growth plans have thrown them a curveball that they didn't expect. When Intel communicated that these plans would have a discernible impact on its profitability, they feared for their dividends. Perhaps, Gelsinger is banking on a turnover of its investor base. The company could potentially be a huge winner if it succeeds on its growth roadmap. Given that the expectations are so low now, it doesn't even have to be immensely successful for the stock to be re-rated upwards. The huge difference in the growth premium between INTC and its faster growth peers is eye-catching. We think investors who have patience and are willing to ride out the short-term volatility might find INTC stock attractively valued right now. Coupled with a 2.8% dividend yield, it adds more gloss to its premise. Adding on a potential growth re-rating, the stock certainly looks attractive.\nDespite that, INTC's long-term momentum has remained weak. The stock's long-term price action has also been much weaker than AMD stock. We recall that Buffett emphasized that he has no qualms about paying a fair price for a fantastic company.\nTherefore, we think AMD stock represents our preferred Buy for now.INTC stock is also a Buy for dividend and value investors. At the same time, we retain our Neutral rating on NVDA.\nThis article was written by JR Research.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2711,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["AMD"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":45,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/854725665"}