Risky game_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-10-21

Risky game although the potential returns lookvery impressive.

Marathon Digital Stock: More Upside With A Breakout In Bitcoin<blockquote>马拉松数字股票：比特币突破带来更多上涨空间</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":853689181,"tweetId":"853689181","gmtCreate":1634800403686,"gmtModify":1634800403834,"author":{"id":3586406638423368,"idStr":"3586406638423368","authorId":3586406638423368,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":7,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Risky game although the potential returns lookvery impressive.</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Risky game although the potential returns lookvery impressive.</body></html>","text":"Risky game although the potential returns lookvery impressive.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853689181","repostId":1114856613,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114856613","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634799659,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114856613?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-21 15:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Marathon Digital Stock: More Upside With A Breakout In Bitcoin<blockquote>马拉松数字股票：比特币突破带来更多上涨空间</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114856613","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMarathon Digital Holdings is benefiting from the strong momentum in bitcoin approaching an ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Marathon Digital Holdings is benefiting from the strong momentum in bitcoin approaching an all-time high.</li> <li>The company has reported strong bitcoin mining production growth which is expected to accelerate as it increases capacity.</li> <li>We are bullish on the stock which we believe can continue to outperform the price of bitcoin.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d7bf6e4e906ea0634d29e16cfcb23d9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">24K-Production/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>马拉松数字控股公司受益于比特币接近历史新高的强劲势头。</li><li>该公司报告称比特币矿业产量强劲增长，随着产能的增加，预计这一增长将加速。</li><li>我们看好该股，我们相信该股的表现可以继续优于比特币的价格。</li></ul>24K-Production/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(NASDAQ:MARA)&nbsp;has achieved juggernaut status as the leading Bitcoin mining stock benefiting from the ongoing crypto bull market. Shares are up over 360% this year and there is a strong case for more upside. The key is to put aside any outdated misconceptions about the industry and recognize that the company is generating massive revenue growth with earnings set to ramp up. Indeed, with the price of Bitcoin climbing back above $60k, MARA's own all-time high of $58 set back in early April is again within reach. In many ways, the outlook for Bitcoin mining and the broader crypto space has never been more positive. We are bullish on MARA expect shares to continue outperforming through 2022, gaining momentum as it captures a higher valuation premium.<blockquote>Marathon Digital Holdings Inc（纳斯达克股票代码：MARA）作为受益于持续加密货币牛市的领先比特币矿业股，已获得巨头地位。今年股价上涨了 360% 以上，有充分的理由进一步上涨。关键是抛开对该行业的任何过时的误解，认识到该公司正在产生巨大的收入增长，盈利也将增加。事实上，随着比特币的价格回升至 6 万美元以上，MARA 自己在 4 月初创下的 58 美元的历史新高再次触手可及。在许多方面，比特币挖矿和更广泛的加密领域的前景从未如此乐观。我们看好 MARA expect 股价在 2022 年继续跑赢大盘，并随着其获得更高的估值溢价而获得动力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae131d9493e92d6449acd5fe4aae4a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote> MARA Strong Bitcoin Mining Growth<blockquote>玛拉比特币矿业强劲增长</blockquote> The company provided a production update in early October with the headline of mining 1,252.4 Bitcoins in Q3, nearly double the 664.3 total mined in Q2. While the price of Bitcoin averaged around $42k in the quarter, the current market price of $60k implies a quarterly revenue run rate of $75 million that is expected to accelerate going forward as the company continues to expand its capacity. Marathon now holds 7,035 Bitcoin on its balance sheet with a value of over $422 million in addition to a separate cash position of $33 million.<blockquote>该公司在 10 月初提供了产量更新，标题是第三季度开采了 1,252.4 个比特币，几乎是第二季度开采总量 664.3 个比特币的两倍。虽然比特币本季度的平均价格约为4.2万美元，但目前6万美元的市场价格意味着季度收入运行率为7500万美元，随着公司继续扩大产能，预计这一速度将加快。马拉松目前在其资产负债表上持有 7,035 项比特币，价值超过 4.22 亿美元，此外还有 3,300 万美元的单独现金头寸。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6280bcec6f8519e422b36b50f1ad702\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: company IR<blockquote>资料来源：公司投资者关系</blockquote> From a reported 29,960 mining machines at the end of September and 2.7 EH/s in hash rate, the plan is to deploy a total of 133,000 miners by mid-2022 meaning the company's mining capacity will be 5x larger than its current level. Management noted some recent logistical issues have impacted shipping times to the company's facility in Hardin, Montana but reaffirmed its schedule of installations through next year.<blockquote>截至 9 月底，据报道有 29,960 台采矿机，散列率为 2.7 EH/s，计划到 2022 年中期总共部署 133,000 名矿工，这意味着该公司的采矿能力将是目前水平的 5 倍。管理层指出，最近的一些物流问题影响了该公司位于蒙大拿州哈丁的工厂的运输时间，但重申了明年的安装时间表。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dda9d658a8671363d36682b39de88f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: company IR<blockquote>资料来源：公司投资者关系</blockquote> Assuming the entire fleet of miners was fully deployed right now, it is estimated Marathon would control around 8.4% of the global Bitcoin network based on the current network difficulty of around 158 EH/s compared to the current 2% as per the chart above. At 8.4%, Marathon could theoretically be mining close to 2,275 Bitcoins per month representing a market value of $137 million or $1.6 billion as an annualized run rate. These are the types of figures that help justify the company's current market cap near $5 billion.<blockquote>假设整个矿工车队现在已经完全部署，根据当前网络难度约为158 EH/s，而上图显示，目前为2%，估计马拉松将控制全球比特币网络的8.4%。Marathon 理论上每月开采近 2,275 个比特币，市值为 1.37 亿美元，年化运行率为 16 亿美元。这些数字有助于证明该公司目前近 50 亿美元的市值是合理的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a148065410a5daa0467a904f95e710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: company IR<blockquote>资料来源：公司投资者关系</blockquote> According to consensus estimates, the market is forecasting MARA 2021 revenue to reach $225 million along with positive EPS of $0.94 this year. Again, the real optimism is for next year as capacity and production ramps ups through the second half of 2022 with an estimate for revenue to approach $790 million and EPS of $4.16. Even considering the breathtaking rally in shares of MARA this year, we believe the current valuation metrics including a 1-year forward price to sales multiple of 6.2x and 12x P/E ratio on the 2022 consensus EPS are attractive. The reality is that there are few stocks in any sector generating this type of growth with a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.<blockquote>根据普遍估计，市场预测 MARA 2021 年收入将达到 2.25 亿美元，今年每股收益将为 0.94 美元。同样，真正乐观的是明年，因为到 2022 年下半年，产能和产量都会增加，预计收入将接近 7.9 亿美元，每股收益将达到 4.16 美元。即使考虑到 MARA 股价今年的惊人上涨，我们认为当前的估值指标（包括 1 年远期市销率为 6.2 倍，2022 年共识每股收益的 12 倍市盈率）仍然具有吸引力。现实情况是，在任何行业中，很少有股票能够产生这种类型的增长，并对比特币的前景持乐观态度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6ee8bb568d2b57f5f9bee2201acb45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote> Bullish on Bitcoin<blockquote>看好比特币</blockquote> Compared to the \"crypto winter\" during the summer months when the price of Bitcoin briefly traded under $30k in what was a painful 50% correction, the sentiment has decisively turned positive. Our sense is that many of the long-term drivers for Bitcoin including the growing recognition at the institutional level of cryptocurrencies as an alternative asset class along with ongoing adoption for payments continue to represent fundamental tailwinds that can drive the price of Bitcoin higher.<blockquote>与夏季几个月的“加密货币冬天”相比，当时比特币的价格短暂低于 3 万美元，经历了痛苦的 50% 回调，但市场情绪已经决定性地转向积极。我们的感觉是，比特币的许多长期驱动因素，包括机构层面对加密货币作为替代资产类别的日益认可，以及支付的持续采用，仍然是可能推高比特币价格的基本面推动力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b24b52a2b30b155f858d4c78704db52c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: company IR<blockquote>资料来源：公司投资者关系</blockquote> From a technical standpoint, the selloff likely helped to consolidate the multi-year gains in Bitcoin following a particularly strong 2020 which now establishes a stronger base of support for the next leg higher. While Bitcoin is still a few percentage points below its April all-time high of $65k, there are some good reasons to believe a breakout is on tap.<blockquote>从技术角度来看，抛售可能有助于巩固比特币在2020年特别强劲之后的多年涨幅，现在为下一波上涨奠定了更坚实的支撑基础。虽然比特币仍比 4 月份 6.5 万美元的历史高点低几个百分点，但有一些充分的理由相信突破即将到来。</blockquote> First, reports are that a&nbsp;Bitcoin ETF&nbsp;linked to traded Bitcoin futures is set to begin trading this week through the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF(NYSEARCA:BITO). The expectation is for many other Bitcoin exchange-traded products to be approved still this year which can be interpreted as an apparent stamp of approval by regulators that cryptocurrencies are here to stay. The potential that the new instruments funnel more capital into the space can directly drive the price of Bitcoin further.<blockquote>首先，有报道称，与比特币期货交易相关的比特币 ETF 将于本周通过 ProShares 比特币策略 ETF（NYSEARCA:BITO）开始交易。预计今年还将有许多其他比特币交易所交易的产品获得批准，这可以被解读为监管机构对加密货币将继续存在的明显认可。新工具有可能将更多资本引入该领域，这可能会直接进一步推高比特币的价格。</blockquote> We have a year-ahead price target of $100,000 for Bitcoin (BTC-USD) which is about 60% higher than the current level. Our base case is that even with some expected volatility and pullbacks on profit-taking, the trend higher can be accelerated through Q4 with a repeat of the action from 2020. While the run in Bitcoin likely had some doubters in Q1 this year, its ability to brush aside the headwinds between concerns over environmental impacts and global regulation only helps reinforce the long-term outlook.<blockquote>我们对比特币 (BTC-USD) 的全年目标价为 100,000 美元，比当前水平高出约 60%。我们的基本假设是，即使预期会出现一些波动和获利回调，随着 2020 年的行动重演，第四季度的上涨趋势也可能会加速。尽管今年第一季度比特币的上市可能会有一些怀疑者，但它能够克服对环境影响和全球监管的担忧之间的不利因素，这只会增强长期前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba484e07c8f9f005525cba220d0c34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">finviz.com<blockquote>芬维兹网站</blockquote> The fund manager ARK Invest has published research suggesting a growing allocation by institutional investors towards Bitcoin could impact the price between $200,000 and $500,000 long term. The group believes just a 1% allocation towards Bitcoin by all groups of institutional investors would incrementally add $100,000 to the price of Bitcoin. We expect the wider availability of Bitcoin and crypto investment products to gradually become a staple of diversified portfolios for all investors. In the near term, in our view, the $100k price level will eventually act as a magnet for traders to target through momentum based on the psychological importance of the round number.<blockquote>基金管理公司 ARK Invest 发表的研究表明，机构投资者对比特币的配置不断增加，从长远来看，可能会对价格产生 20 万至 50 万美元的影响。该集团认为，所有机构投资者群体只要向比特币分配1%，比特币的价格就会逐渐增加10万美元。我们预计比特币和加密投资产品的更广泛可用性将逐渐成为所有投资者多元化投资组合的主要部分。在短期内，我们认为，10万美元的价格水平最终将成为一块磁铁，吸引交易者根据轮数的心理重要性通过动量进行目标。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9f6776e72cad8d908f9b9c270810e92\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Ark Invest<blockquote>资料来源：方舟投资</blockquote> MARA Stock Forecast<blockquote>玛拉股票预测</blockquote> As it relates to MARA, the higher the price of Bitcoin directly translates into higher revenue and earnings potential. We expect Bitcoin miners to outperform the crypto price to the upside based on the concept of operating leverage. Simply put, higher revenues can correspond to an even higher impact to operating income and earnings. Marathon's advantage is both its current scale with a leg up on other miners attempting to secure production capacity through next year. The company's low cost of electricity with an estimated production cost of $5,612 per Bitcoin highlights the profitability potential. MARA's efforts at sustainability with a plan to be 100% carbon neutral by the end of 2022 is a benchmark for the entire industry.<blockquote>由于与 MARA 相关，比特币的价格越高，直接转化为更高的收入和盈利潜力。基于运营杠杆的概念，我们预计比特币矿商的表现将优于加密货币价格。简而言之，更高的收入可以对应于对经营利润和盈利的更大影响。马拉松的优势在于其目前的规模，并且比其他试图确保明年产能的矿商更具优势。该公司电力成本低，估计每比特币生产成本为 5,612 美元，凸显了盈利潜力。MARA 在可持续发展方面的努力，计划到 2022 年底实现 100% 碳中和，这是整个行业的标杆。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f2a439d461073969566bfb6372e5a1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: company IR<blockquote>资料来源：公司投资者关系</blockquote> To forecast how many Bitcoins and revenue MARA will be generating by this time next year, we need to consider not only the price of Bitcoin but also the Bitcoin network difficulty. It's understood that as more mining machines go online, the network hash rate will climb and thereby dilute each existing miners' share of the Bitcoin mining potential. Over the course of a year, 52,560 Bitcoin blocks are awarded by the network with each block representing 6.25 BTC. The 328,500 newly minted Bitcoin mined over the course of a year is the market potential MARA is attempting to capture.<blockquote>为了预测MARA到明年这个时候将产生多少比特币和收入，我们不仅需要考虑比特币的价格，还需要考虑比特币网络的难度。据了解，随着越来越多的矿机上线，网络哈希率将会攀升，从而稀释每个现有矿工在比特币采矿潜力中的份额。在一年的时间里，该网络授予了52,560个比特币区块，每个区块代表6.25 BTC。一年内新开采的 328,500 枚比特币是 MARA 试图抓住的市场潜力。</blockquote> We mentioned the company's guidance for 13.3 EH/s represents about 8.4% of the current global hash rate. In reality, by the time the full fleet of mining machines is deployed, it's likely the network difficulty will be above 200 EH/s meaning the 8.4% share will be reduced down towards 6.7% or lower. There is a great deal of uncertainty as to how this rate will progress although the general consensus is that the network difficultly will trend higher. From the chart below, we can observe a large drop in the global hash rate in mid-2021 which coincided with Chinese miners going offline as mining was banned in the country. The other dynamic at play is that some of the oldest mining machines online currently go past their lifecycle and need to be replaced generating a regular turnover.<blockquote>我们提到该公司对 13.3 EH/s 的指导约为当前全球哈希率的 8.4%。事实上，当部署完整的采矿机器时，网络难度可能会超过200 EH/s，这意味着8.4%的份额将降至6.7%或更低。尽管普遍的共识是网络不太可能走高，但这一比率将如何发展仍有很大的不确定性。从下图中，我们可以观察到2021年年中全球哈希率大幅下降，这与中国矿工下线相吻合，因为该国禁止采矿。另一个动态是，一些最古老的在线采矿机目前已经过了生命周期，需要更换，从而产生定期营业额。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22dda2e73253a8137117a0f57124b926\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> We are extrapolating how much Marathon's revenue run rate could be by the second half of next year when it fully deploys all announced mining machine purchases. For example, with a hash rate capacity of 13.3 EH/s by mid-2022, assuming a network difficultly level of 215 EH/s at that point, MARA would control 6.2% of the global hash rate and be able to mine approximately 1,693 Bitcoins in a single month. At the current market price of $60k, the monthly revenue would approach $102 million which is annualized to $1.219 billion. By this measure, we can state that shares of MARA are trading at a forward price to sales multiple of 4.3x based on its expected annualized revenue run rate by next year against the current market cap for the stock at $5.2 billion.<blockquote>我们正在推断，到明年下半年，当 Marathon 完全部署所有已宣布的矿机采购时，其收入运行率可能达到多少。例如，到2022年年中，哈希率容量为13.3 EH/s，假设当时网络难度水平为215 EH/s，MARA将控制6.2%的全球哈希率，并能够在一个月内挖掘大约1,693个比特币。按目前 6 万美元的市场价格计算，月收入将接近 1.02 亿美元，年化收入将达到 12.19 亿美元。通过这一衡量标准，我们可以说，根据其预计明年的年化收入运行率，MARA 股票的远期市价为 4.3 倍，而该股目前的市值为 52 亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a91df4ee0c4ed3b80e6e4733b6247d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: author estimates<blockquote>资料来源：作者估计</blockquote> In our view, MARA is undervalued at its current level in the context of the Bitcoin pricing environment and growth outlook. A forward P/S multiple closer to 5x would better reflect an appropriate growth premium and the company's positive outlook in our opinion. By this measure, at a constant BTC price of $60k and an outlook for the hash rate to trend towards 215 EH/s, we believe MARA should be valued closer to $61.50 as a near-term price target.<blockquote>我们认为，在比特币定价环境和增长前景的背景下，MARA 目前的估值被低估了。我们认为，接近 5 倍的远期市盈率将更好地反映适当的增长溢价和公司的积极前景。根据这一衡量标准，在 6 万美元的恒定 BTC 价格以及哈希率趋向 215 EH/s 的前景下，我们认为 MARA 的估值应接近 61.50 美元作为近期目标价。</blockquote> Going a step further, with an outlook for Bitcoin to potentially reach $100k by next year, we see shares of MARA trending towards $100. From the table above, the Bitcoin market price of $100k at a 215 EH/s hash rate for next year implies MARA is currently trading at a forward P/S of 2.6x. The stock would need to climb at least 92% from the current level to maintain the valuation parity of 5x based on our model.<blockquote>更进一步，随着比特币明年可能达到 10 万美元的前景，我们看到 MARA 的股价趋于 100 美元。从上表来看，明年比特币市场价格为10万美元，哈希率为215 EH/s，这意味着MARA目前的远期市盈率为2.6倍。根据我们的模型，该股需要从当前水平上涨至少 92%，才能维持 5 倍的估值平价。</blockquote> The Big Picture<blockquote>大局</blockquote> The Bitcoin mining industry continues to mature with more and more investors beginning to recognize the intrinsic value the leading stocks are generating. Marathon Digital as a U.S.-based leader remains one of the most exciting companies in the segment in the middle of a transformative year. We are encouraged by the recent operating and financial results and expect the company to continue executing successfully. We rate shares of MARA as a buy with a bullish price target of $100 per share in a scenario where Bitcoin trends towards $100k.<blockquote>随着越来越多的投资者开始认识到领先股票所产生的内在价值，比特币采矿业继续成熟。作为总部位于美国的领导者，Marathon Digital 在变革之年中仍然是该领域最令人兴奋的公司之一。我们对最近的经营和财务业绩感到鼓舞，并预计公司将继续成功执行。在比特币趋向 10 万美元的情况下，我们将 MARA 股票评级为买入，目标价为每股 100 美元。</blockquote> Longer-term, the company's scale and growing balance sheet Bitcoin position will offer it more flexibility to expand into related crypto services while adding to its mining capacity. For the upcoming quarters, the Q3 earnings report will provide an opportunity to take a look at the cost structure as production accelerates. Monitoring points include the monthly updates while it will be important for the company to remain on schedule with the mining machines deliveries and deployments.<blockquote>从长远来看，该公司的规模和不断增长的资产负债表比特币地位将为其扩展到相关加密服务提供更大的灵活性，同时增加其采矿能力。对于接下来的几个季度，随着生产的加速，第三季度收益报告将提供一个审视成本结构的机会。监控点包括每月更新，而对于公司来说，按时交付和部署矿机非常重要。</blockquote> It goes without saying that the main risk here continues to be the price of Bitcoin. While we are bullish, shares are of MARA will be highly sensitive to the cryptocurrency market price. A selloff in BTC under $50k would likely drive some renewed bearish sentiment and higher volatility. The regulatory landscape also remains uncertain. Efforts by some U.S. states to limit Bitcoin mining along with environmental impact concerns can generate headlines that pressure the segment lower. For 2022, we believe the market will begin to look more closely at earnings and cash flows beyond the high-level themes and momentum.<blockquote>不言而喻，这里的主要风险仍然是比特币的价格。虽然我们看好，但MARA的股票将对加密货币市场价格高度敏感。BTC 跌破 5 万美元可能会引发一些新的看跌情绪和更高的波动性。监管格局也仍然不确定。美国一些州限制比特币采矿的努力以及对环境影响的担忧可能会引发头条新闻，给该领域带来下行压力。对于2022年，我们相信市场将开始更密切地关注高层主题和势头之外的盈利和现金流。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Marathon Digital Stock: More Upside With A Breakout In Bitcoin<blockquote>马拉松数字股票：比特币突破带来更多上涨空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarathon Digital Stock: More Upside With A Breakout In Bitcoin<blockquote>马拉松数字股票：比特币突破带来更多上涨空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-10-21 15:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Marathon Digital Holdings is benefiting from the strong momentum in bitcoin approaching an all-time high.</li> <li>The company has reported strong bitcoin mining production growth which is expected to accelerate as it increases capacity.</li> <li>We are bullish on the stock which we believe can continue to outperform the price of bitcoin.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d7bf6e4e906ea0634d29e16cfcb23d9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">24K-Production/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>马拉松数字控股公司受益于比特币接近历史新高的强劲势头。</li><li>该公司报告称比特币矿业产量强劲增长，随着产能的增加，预计这一增长将加速。</li><li>我们看好该股，我们相信该股的表现可以继续优于比特币的价格。</li></ul>24K-Production/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(NASDAQ:MARA)&nbsp;has achieved juggernaut status as the leading Bitcoin mining stock benefiting from the ongoing crypto bull market. Shares are up over 360% this year and there is a strong case for more upside. The key is to put aside any outdated misconceptions about the industry and recognize that the company is generating massive revenue growth with earnings set to ramp up. Indeed, with the price of Bitcoin climbing back above $60k, MARA's own all-time high of $58 set back in early April is again within reach. In many ways, the outlook for Bitcoin mining and the broader crypto space has never been more positive. We are bullish on MARA expect shares to continue outperforming through 2022, gaining momentum as it captures a higher valuation premium.<blockquote>Marathon Digital Holdings Inc（纳斯达克股票代码：MARA）作为受益于持续加密货币牛市的领先比特币矿业股，已获得巨头地位。今年股价上涨了 360% 以上，有充分的理由进一步上涨。关键是抛开对该行业的任何过时的误解，认识到该公司正在产生巨大的收入增长，盈利也将增加。事实上，随着比特币的价格回升至 6 万美元以上，MARA 自己在 4 月初创下的 58 美元的历史新高再次触手可及。在许多方面，比特币挖矿和更广泛的加密领域的前景从未如此乐观。我们看好 MARA expect 股价在 2022 年继续跑赢大盘，并随着其获得更高的估值溢价而获得动力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae131d9493e92d6449acd5fe4aae4a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote> MARA Strong Bitcoin Mining Growth<blockquote>玛拉比特币矿业强劲增长</blockquote> The company provided a production update in early October with the headline of mining 1,252.4 Bitcoins in Q3, nearly double the 664.3 total mined in Q2. While the price of Bitcoin averaged around $42k in the quarter, the current market price of $60k implies a quarterly revenue run rate of $75 million that is expected to accelerate going forward as the company continues to expand its capacity. Marathon now holds 7,035 Bitcoin on its balance sheet with a value of over $422 million in addition to a separate cash position of $33 million.<blockquote>该公司在 10 月初提供了产量更新，标题是第三季度开采了 1,252.4 个比特币，几乎是第二季度开采总量 664.3 个比特币的两倍。虽然比特币本季度的平均价格约为4.2万美元，但目前6万美元的市场价格意味着季度收入运行率为7500万美元，随着公司继续扩大产能，预计这一速度将加快。马拉松目前在其资产负债表上持有 7,035 项比特币，价值超过 4.22 亿美元，此外还有 3,300 万美元的单独现金头寸。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6280bcec6f8519e422b36b50f1ad702\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: company IR<blockquote>资料来源：公司投资者关系</blockquote> From a reported 29,960 mining machines at the end of September and 2.7 EH/s in hash rate, the plan is to deploy a total of 133,000 miners by mid-2022 meaning the company's mining capacity will be 5x larger than its current level. Management noted some recent logistical issues have impacted shipping times to the company's facility in Hardin, Montana but reaffirmed its schedule of installations through next year.<blockquote>截至 9 月底，据报道有 29,960 台采矿机，散列率为 2.7 EH/s，计划到 2022 年中期总共部署 133,000 名矿工，这意味着该公司的采矿能力将是目前水平的 5 倍。管理层指出，最近的一些物流问题影响了该公司位于蒙大拿州哈丁的工厂的运输时间，但重申了明年的安装时间表。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dda9d658a8671363d36682b39de88f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: company IR<blockquote>资料来源：公司投资者关系</blockquote> Assuming the entire fleet of miners was fully deployed right now, it is estimated Marathon would control around 8.4% of the global Bitcoin network based on the current network difficulty of around 158 EH/s compared to the current 2% as per the chart above. At 8.4%, Marathon could theoretically be mining close to 2,275 Bitcoins per month representing a market value of $137 million or $1.6 billion as an annualized run rate. These are the types of figures that help justify the company's current market cap near $5 billion.<blockquote>假设整个矿工车队现在已经完全部署，根据当前网络难度约为158 EH/s，而上图显示，目前为2%，估计马拉松将控制全球比特币网络的8.4%。Marathon 理论上每月开采近 2,275 个比特币，市值为 1.37 亿美元，年化运行率为 16 亿美元。这些数字有助于证明该公司目前近 50 亿美元的市值是合理的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a148065410a5daa0467a904f95e710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: company IR<blockquote>资料来源：公司投资者关系</blockquote> According to consensus estimates, the market is forecasting MARA 2021 revenue to reach $225 million along with positive EPS of $0.94 this year. Again, the real optimism is for next year as capacity and production ramps ups through the second half of 2022 with an estimate for revenue to approach $790 million and EPS of $4.16. Even considering the breathtaking rally in shares of MARA this year, we believe the current valuation metrics including a 1-year forward price to sales multiple of 6.2x and 12x P/E ratio on the 2022 consensus EPS are attractive. The reality is that there are few stocks in any sector generating this type of growth with a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.<blockquote>根据普遍估计，市场预测 MARA 2021 年收入将达到 2.25 亿美元，今年每股收益将为 0.94 美元。同样，真正乐观的是明年，因为到 2022 年下半年，产能和产量都会增加，预计收入将接近 7.9 亿美元，每股收益将达到 4.16 美元。即使考虑到 MARA 股价今年的惊人上涨，我们认为当前的估值指标（包括 1 年远期市销率为 6.2 倍，2022 年共识每股收益的 12 倍市盈率）仍然具有吸引力。现实情况是，在任何行业中，很少有股票能够产生这种类型的增长，并对比特币的前景持乐观态度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6ee8bb568d2b57f5f9bee2201acb45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote> Bullish on Bitcoin<blockquote>看好比特币</blockquote> Compared to the \"crypto winter\" during the summer months when the price of Bitcoin briefly traded under $30k in what was a painful 50% correction, the sentiment has decisively turned positive. Our sense is that many of the long-term drivers for Bitcoin including the growing recognition at the institutional level of cryptocurrencies as an alternative asset class along with ongoing adoption for payments continue to represent fundamental tailwinds that can drive the price of Bitcoin higher.<blockquote>与夏季几个月的“加密货币冬天”相比，当时比特币的价格短暂低于 3 万美元，经历了痛苦的 50% 回调，但市场情绪已经决定性地转向积极。我们的感觉是，比特币的许多长期驱动因素，包括机构层面对加密货币作为替代资产类别的日益认可，以及支付的持续采用，仍然是可能推高比特币价格的基本面推动力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b24b52a2b30b155f858d4c78704db52c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: company IR<blockquote>资料来源：公司投资者关系</blockquote> From a technical standpoint, the selloff likely helped to consolidate the multi-year gains in Bitcoin following a particularly strong 2020 which now establishes a stronger base of support for the next leg higher. While Bitcoin is still a few percentage points below its April all-time high of $65k, there are some good reasons to believe a breakout is on tap.<blockquote>从技术角度来看，抛售可能有助于巩固比特币在2020年特别强劲之后的多年涨幅，现在为下一波上涨奠定了更坚实的支撑基础。虽然比特币仍比 4 月份 6.5 万美元的历史高点低几个百分点，但有一些充分的理由相信突破即将到来。</blockquote> First, reports are that a&nbsp;Bitcoin ETF&nbsp;linked to traded Bitcoin futures is set to begin trading this week through the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF(NYSEARCA:BITO). The expectation is for many other Bitcoin exchange-traded products to be approved still this year which can be interpreted as an apparent stamp of approval by regulators that cryptocurrencies are here to stay. The potential that the new instruments funnel more capital into the space can directly drive the price of Bitcoin further.<blockquote>首先，有报道称，与比特币期货交易相关的比特币 ETF 将于本周通过 ProShares 比特币策略 ETF（NYSEARCA:BITO）开始交易。预计今年还将有许多其他比特币交易所交易的产品获得批准，这可以被解读为监管机构对加密货币将继续存在的明显认可。新工具有可能将更多资本引入该领域，这可能会直接进一步推高比特币的价格。</blockquote> We have a year-ahead price target of $100,000 for Bitcoin (BTC-USD) which is about 60% higher than the current level. Our base case is that even with some expected volatility and pullbacks on profit-taking, the trend higher can be accelerated through Q4 with a repeat of the action from 2020. While the run in Bitcoin likely had some doubters in Q1 this year, its ability to brush aside the headwinds between concerns over environmental impacts and global regulation only helps reinforce the long-term outlook.<blockquote>我们对比特币 (BTC-USD) 的全年目标价为 100,000 美元，比当前水平高出约 60%。我们的基本假设是，即使预期会出现一些波动和获利回调，随着 2020 年的行动重演，第四季度的上涨趋势也可能会加速。尽管今年第一季度比特币的上市可能会有一些怀疑者，但它能够克服对环境影响和全球监管的担忧之间的不利因素，这只会增强长期前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba484e07c8f9f005525cba220d0c34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">finviz.com<blockquote>芬维兹网站</blockquote> The fund manager ARK Invest has published research suggesting a growing allocation by institutional investors towards Bitcoin could impact the price between $200,000 and $500,000 long term. The group believes just a 1% allocation towards Bitcoin by all groups of institutional investors would incrementally add $100,000 to the price of Bitcoin. We expect the wider availability of Bitcoin and crypto investment products to gradually become a staple of diversified portfolios for all investors. In the near term, in our view, the $100k price level will eventually act as a magnet for traders to target through momentum based on the psychological importance of the round number.<blockquote>基金管理公司 ARK Invest 发表的研究表明，机构投资者对比特币的配置不断增加，从长远来看，可能会对价格产生 20 万至 50 万美元的影响。该集团认为，所有机构投资者群体只要向比特币分配1%，比特币的价格就会逐渐增加10万美元。我们预计比特币和加密投资产品的更广泛可用性将逐渐成为所有投资者多元化投资组合的主要部分。在短期内，我们认为，10万美元的价格水平最终将成为一块磁铁，吸引交易者根据轮数的心理重要性通过动量进行目标。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9f6776e72cad8d908f9b9c270810e92\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Ark Invest<blockquote>资料来源：方舟投资</blockquote> MARA Stock Forecast<blockquote>玛拉股票预测</blockquote> As it relates to MARA, the higher the price of Bitcoin directly translates into higher revenue and earnings potential. We expect Bitcoin miners to outperform the crypto price to the upside based on the concept of operating leverage. Simply put, higher revenues can correspond to an even higher impact to operating income and earnings. Marathon's advantage is both its current scale with a leg up on other miners attempting to secure production capacity through next year. The company's low cost of electricity with an estimated production cost of $5,612 per Bitcoin highlights the profitability potential. MARA's efforts at sustainability with a plan to be 100% carbon neutral by the end of 2022 is a benchmark for the entire industry.<blockquote>由于与 MARA 相关，比特币的价格越高，直接转化为更高的收入和盈利潜力。基于运营杠杆的概念，我们预计比特币矿商的表现将优于加密货币价格。简而言之，更高的收入可以对应于对经营利润和盈利的更大影响。马拉松的优势在于其目前的规模，并且比其他试图确保明年产能的矿商更具优势。该公司电力成本低，估计每比特币生产成本为 5,612 美元，凸显了盈利潜力。MARA 在可持续发展方面的努力，计划到 2022 年底实现 100% 碳中和，这是整个行业的标杆。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f2a439d461073969566bfb6372e5a1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: company IR<blockquote>资料来源：公司投资者关系</blockquote> To forecast how many Bitcoins and revenue MARA will be generating by this time next year, we need to consider not only the price of Bitcoin but also the Bitcoin network difficulty. It's understood that as more mining machines go online, the network hash rate will climb and thereby dilute each existing miners' share of the Bitcoin mining potential. Over the course of a year, 52,560 Bitcoin blocks are awarded by the network with each block representing 6.25 BTC. The 328,500 newly minted Bitcoin mined over the course of a year is the market potential MARA is attempting to capture.<blockquote>为了预测MARA到明年这个时候将产生多少比特币和收入，我们不仅需要考虑比特币的价格，还需要考虑比特币网络的难度。据了解，随着越来越多的矿机上线，网络哈希率将会攀升，从而稀释每个现有矿工在比特币采矿潜力中的份额。在一年的时间里，该网络授予了52,560个比特币区块，每个区块代表6.25 BTC。一年内新开采的 328,500 枚比特币是 MARA 试图抓住的市场潜力。</blockquote> We mentioned the company's guidance for 13.3 EH/s represents about 8.4% of the current global hash rate. In reality, by the time the full fleet of mining machines is deployed, it's likely the network difficulty will be above 200 EH/s meaning the 8.4% share will be reduced down towards 6.7% or lower. There is a great deal of uncertainty as to how this rate will progress although the general consensus is that the network difficultly will trend higher. From the chart below, we can observe a large drop in the global hash rate in mid-2021 which coincided with Chinese miners going offline as mining was banned in the country. The other dynamic at play is that some of the oldest mining machines online currently go past their lifecycle and need to be replaced generating a regular turnover.<blockquote>我们提到该公司对 13.3 EH/s 的指导约为当前全球哈希率的 8.4%。事实上，当部署完整的采矿机器时，网络难度可能会超过200 EH/s，这意味着8.4%的份额将降至6.7%或更低。尽管普遍的共识是网络不太可能走高，但这一比率将如何发展仍有很大的不确定性。从下图中，我们可以观察到2021年年中全球哈希率大幅下降，这与中国矿工下线相吻合，因为该国禁止采矿。另一个动态是，一些最古老的在线采矿机目前已经过了生命周期，需要更换，从而产生定期营业额。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22dda2e73253a8137117a0f57124b926\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> We are extrapolating how much Marathon's revenue run rate could be by the second half of next year when it fully deploys all announced mining machine purchases. For example, with a hash rate capacity of 13.3 EH/s by mid-2022, assuming a network difficultly level of 215 EH/s at that point, MARA would control 6.2% of the global hash rate and be able to mine approximately 1,693 Bitcoins in a single month. At the current market price of $60k, the monthly revenue would approach $102 million which is annualized to $1.219 billion. By this measure, we can state that shares of MARA are trading at a forward price to sales multiple of 4.3x based on its expected annualized revenue run rate by next year against the current market cap for the stock at $5.2 billion.<blockquote>我们正在推断，到明年下半年，当 Marathon 完全部署所有已宣布的矿机采购时，其收入运行率可能达到多少。例如，到2022年年中，哈希率容量为13.3 EH/s，假设当时网络难度水平为215 EH/s，MARA将控制6.2%的全球哈希率，并能够在一个月内挖掘大约1,693个比特币。按目前 6 万美元的市场价格计算，月收入将接近 1.02 亿美元，年化收入将达到 12.19 亿美元。通过这一衡量标准，我们可以说，根据其预计明年的年化收入运行率，MARA 股票的远期市价为 4.3 倍，而该股目前的市值为 52 亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a91df4ee0c4ed3b80e6e4733b6247d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: author estimates<blockquote>资料来源：作者估计</blockquote> In our view, MARA is undervalued at its current level in the context of the Bitcoin pricing environment and growth outlook. A forward P/S multiple closer to 5x would better reflect an appropriate growth premium and the company's positive outlook in our opinion. By this measure, at a constant BTC price of $60k and an outlook for the hash rate to trend towards 215 EH/s, we believe MARA should be valued closer to $61.50 as a near-term price target.<blockquote>我们认为，在比特币定价环境和增长前景的背景下，MARA 目前的估值被低估了。我们认为，接近 5 倍的远期市盈率将更好地反映适当的增长溢价和公司的积极前景。根据这一衡量标准，在 6 万美元的恒定 BTC 价格以及哈希率趋向 215 EH/s 的前景下，我们认为 MARA 的估值应接近 61.50 美元作为近期目标价。</blockquote> Going a step further, with an outlook for Bitcoin to potentially reach $100k by next year, we see shares of MARA trending towards $100. From the table above, the Bitcoin market price of $100k at a 215 EH/s hash rate for next year implies MARA is currently trading at a forward P/S of 2.6x. The stock would need to climb at least 92% from the current level to maintain the valuation parity of 5x based on our model.<blockquote>更进一步，随着比特币明年可能达到 10 万美元的前景，我们看到 MARA 的股价趋于 100 美元。从上表来看，明年比特币市场价格为10万美元，哈希率为215 EH/s，这意味着MARA目前的远期市盈率为2.6倍。根据我们的模型，该股需要从当前水平上涨至少 92%，才能维持 5 倍的估值平价。</blockquote> The Big Picture<blockquote>大局</blockquote> The Bitcoin mining industry continues to mature with more and more investors beginning to recognize the intrinsic value the leading stocks are generating. Marathon Digital as a U.S.-based leader remains one of the most exciting companies in the segment in the middle of a transformative year. We are encouraged by the recent operating and financial results and expect the company to continue executing successfully. We rate shares of MARA as a buy with a bullish price target of $100 per share in a scenario where Bitcoin trends towards $100k.<blockquote>随着越来越多的投资者开始认识到领先股票所产生的内在价值，比特币采矿业继续成熟。作为总部位于美国的领导者，Marathon Digital 在变革之年中仍然是该领域最令人兴奋的公司之一。我们对最近的经营和财务业绩感到鼓舞，并预计公司将继续成功执行。在比特币趋向 10 万美元的情况下，我们将 MARA 股票评级为买入，目标价为每股 100 美元。</blockquote> Longer-term, the company's scale and growing balance sheet Bitcoin position will offer it more flexibility to expand into related crypto services while adding to its mining capacity. For the upcoming quarters, the Q3 earnings report will provide an opportunity to take a look at the cost structure as production accelerates. Monitoring points include the monthly updates while it will be important for the company to remain on schedule with the mining machines deliveries and deployments.<blockquote>从长远来看，该公司的规模和不断增长的资产负债表比特币地位将为其扩展到相关加密服务提供更大的灵活性，同时增加其采矿能力。对于接下来的几个季度，随着生产的加速，第三季度收益报告将提供一个审视成本结构的机会。监控点包括每月更新，而对于公司来说，按时交付和部署矿机非常重要。</blockquote> It goes without saying that the main risk here continues to be the price of Bitcoin. While we are bullish, shares are of MARA will be highly sensitive to the cryptocurrency market price. A selloff in BTC under $50k would likely drive some renewed bearish sentiment and higher volatility. The regulatory landscape also remains uncertain. Efforts by some U.S. states to limit Bitcoin mining along with environmental impact concerns can generate headlines that pressure the segment lower. For 2022, we believe the market will begin to look more closely at earnings and cash flows beyond the high-level themes and momentum.<blockquote>不言而喻，这里的主要风险仍然是比特币的价格。虽然我们看好，但MARA的股票将对加密货币市场价格高度敏感。BTC 跌破 5 万美元可能会引发一些新的看跌情绪和更高的波动性。监管格局也仍然不确定。美国一些州限制比特币采矿的努力以及对环境影响的担忧可能会引发头条新闻，给该领域带来下行压力。对于2022年，我们相信市场将开始更密切地关注高层主题和势头之外的盈利和现金流。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460632-marathon-digital-more-upside-with-breakout-in-bitcoin\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3cdd0b2f46028be0fdb985c3d97141c","relate_stocks":{"MARA":"MARA Holdings"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460632-marathon-digital-more-upside-with-breakout-in-bitcoin","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114856613","content_text":"Summary\n\nMarathon Digital Holdings is benefiting from the strong momentum in bitcoin approaching an all-time high.\nThe company has reported strong bitcoin mining production growth which is expected to accelerate as it increases capacity.\nWe are bullish on the stock which we believe can continue to outperform the price of bitcoin.\n\n24K-Production/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nMarathon Digital Holdings Inc(NASDAQ:MARA) has achieved juggernaut status as the leading Bitcoin mining stock benefiting from the ongoing crypto bull market. Shares are up over 360% this year and there is a strong case for more upside. The key is to put aside any outdated misconceptions about the industry and recognize that the company is generating massive revenue growth with earnings set to ramp up. Indeed, with the price of Bitcoin climbing back above $60k, MARA's own all-time high of $58 set back in early April is again within reach. In many ways, the outlook for Bitcoin mining and the broader crypto space has never been more positive. We are bullish on MARA expect shares to continue outperforming through 2022, gaining momentum as it captures a higher valuation premium.\nSeeking Alpha\nMARA Strong Bitcoin Mining Growth\nThe company provided a production update in early October with the headline of mining 1,252.4 Bitcoins in Q3, nearly double the 664.3 total mined in Q2. While the price of Bitcoin averaged around $42k in the quarter, the current market price of $60k implies a quarterly revenue run rate of $75 million that is expected to accelerate going forward as the company continues to expand its capacity. Marathon now holds 7,035 Bitcoin on its balance sheet with a value of over $422 million in addition to a separate cash position of $33 million.\nsource: company IR\nFrom a reported 29,960 mining machines at the end of September and 2.7 EH/s in hash rate, the plan is to deploy a total of 133,000 miners by mid-2022 meaning the company's mining capacity will be 5x larger than its current level. Management noted some recent logistical issues have impacted shipping times to the company's facility in Hardin, Montana but reaffirmed its schedule of installations through next year.\nsource: company IR\nAssuming the entire fleet of miners was fully deployed right now, it is estimated Marathon would control around 8.4% of the global Bitcoin network based on the current network difficulty of around 158 EH/s compared to the current 2% as per the chart above. At 8.4%, Marathon could theoretically be mining close to 2,275 Bitcoins per month representing a market value of $137 million or $1.6 billion as an annualized run rate. These are the types of figures that help justify the company's current market cap near $5 billion.\nsource: company IR\nAccording to consensus estimates, the market is forecasting MARA 2021 revenue to reach $225 million along with positive EPS of $0.94 this year. Again, the real optimism is for next year as capacity and production ramps ups through the second half of 2022 with an estimate for revenue to approach $790 million and EPS of $4.16. Even considering the breathtaking rally in shares of MARA this year, we believe the current valuation metrics including a 1-year forward price to sales multiple of 6.2x and 12x P/E ratio on the 2022 consensus EPS are attractive. The reality is that there are few stocks in any sector generating this type of growth with a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.\nSeeking Alpha\nBullish on Bitcoin\nCompared to the \"crypto winter\" during the summer months when the price of Bitcoin briefly traded under $30k in what was a painful 50% correction, the sentiment has decisively turned positive. Our sense is that many of the long-term drivers for Bitcoin including the growing recognition at the institutional level of cryptocurrencies as an alternative asset class along with ongoing adoption for payments continue to represent fundamental tailwinds that can drive the price of Bitcoin higher.\nsource: company IR\nFrom a technical standpoint, the selloff likely helped to consolidate the multi-year gains in Bitcoin following a particularly strong 2020 which now establishes a stronger base of support for the next leg higher. While Bitcoin is still a few percentage points below its April all-time high of $65k, there are some good reasons to believe a breakout is on tap.\nFirst, reports are that a Bitcoin ETF linked to traded Bitcoin futures is set to begin trading this week through the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF(NYSEARCA:BITO). The expectation is for many other Bitcoin exchange-traded products to be approved still this year which can be interpreted as an apparent stamp of approval by regulators that cryptocurrencies are here to stay. The potential that the new instruments funnel more capital into the space can directly drive the price of Bitcoin further.\nWe have a year-ahead price target of $100,000 for Bitcoin (BTC-USD) which is about 60% higher than the current level. Our base case is that even with some expected volatility and pullbacks on profit-taking, the trend higher can be accelerated through Q4 with a repeat of the action from 2020. While the run in Bitcoin likely had some doubters in Q1 this year, its ability to brush aside the headwinds between concerns over environmental impacts and global regulation only helps reinforce the long-term outlook.\nfinviz.com\nThe fund manager ARK Invest has published research suggesting a growing allocation by institutional investors towards Bitcoin could impact the price between $200,000 and $500,000 long term. The group believes just a 1% allocation towards Bitcoin by all groups of institutional investors would incrementally add $100,000 to the price of Bitcoin. We expect the wider availability of Bitcoin and crypto investment products to gradually become a staple of diversified portfolios for all investors. In the near term, in our view, the $100k price level will eventually act as a magnet for traders to target through momentum based on the psychological importance of the round number.\nsource: Ark Invest\nMARA Stock Forecast\nAs it relates to MARA, the higher the price of Bitcoin directly translates into higher revenue and earnings potential. We expect Bitcoin miners to outperform the crypto price to the upside based on the concept of operating leverage. Simply put, higher revenues can correspond to an even higher impact to operating income and earnings. Marathon's advantage is both its current scale with a leg up on other miners attempting to secure production capacity through next year. The company's low cost of electricity with an estimated production cost of $5,612 per Bitcoin highlights the profitability potential. MARA's efforts at sustainability with a plan to be 100% carbon neutral by the end of 2022 is a benchmark for the entire industry.\nsource: company IR\nTo forecast how many Bitcoins and revenue MARA will be generating by this time next year, we need to consider not only the price of Bitcoin but also the Bitcoin network difficulty. It's understood that as more mining machines go online, the network hash rate will climb and thereby dilute each existing miners' share of the Bitcoin mining potential. Over the course of a year, 52,560 Bitcoin blocks are awarded by the network with each block representing 6.25 BTC. The 328,500 newly minted Bitcoin mined over the course of a year is the market potential MARA is attempting to capture.\nWe mentioned the company's guidance for 13.3 EH/s represents about 8.4% of the current global hash rate. In reality, by the time the full fleet of mining machines is deployed, it's likely the network difficulty will be above 200 EH/s meaning the 8.4% share will be reduced down towards 6.7% or lower. There is a great deal of uncertainty as to how this rate will progress although the general consensus is that the network difficultly will trend higher. From the chart below, we can observe a large drop in the global hash rate in mid-2021 which coincided with Chinese miners going offline as mining was banned in the country. The other dynamic at play is that some of the oldest mining machines online currently go past their lifecycle and need to be replaced generating a regular turnover.\nData by YCharts\nWe are extrapolating how much Marathon's revenue run rate could be by the second half of next year when it fully deploys all announced mining machine purchases. For example, with a hash rate capacity of 13.3 EH/s by mid-2022, assuming a network difficultly level of 215 EH/s at that point, MARA would control 6.2% of the global hash rate and be able to mine approximately 1,693 Bitcoins in a single month. At the current market price of $60k, the monthly revenue would approach $102 million which is annualized to $1.219 billion. By this measure, we can state that shares of MARA are trading at a forward price to sales multiple of 4.3x based on its expected annualized revenue run rate by next year against the current market cap for the stock at $5.2 billion.\nsource: author estimates\nIn our view, MARA is undervalued at its current level in the context of the Bitcoin pricing environment and growth outlook. A forward P/S multiple closer to 5x would better reflect an appropriate growth premium and the company's positive outlook in our opinion. By this measure, at a constant BTC price of $60k and an outlook for the hash rate to trend towards 215 EH/s, we believe MARA should be valued closer to $61.50 as a near-term price target.\nGoing a step further, with an outlook for Bitcoin to potentially reach $100k by next year, we see shares of MARA trending towards $100. From the table above, the Bitcoin market price of $100k at a 215 EH/s hash rate for next year implies MARA is currently trading at a forward P/S of 2.6x. The stock would need to climb at least 92% from the current level to maintain the valuation parity of 5x based on our model.\nThe Big Picture\nThe Bitcoin mining industry continues to mature with more and more investors beginning to recognize the intrinsic value the leading stocks are generating. Marathon Digital as a U.S.-based leader remains one of the most exciting companies in the segment in the middle of a transformative year. We are encouraged by the recent operating and financial results and expect the company to continue executing successfully. We rate shares of MARA as a buy with a bullish price target of $100 per share in a scenario where Bitcoin trends towards $100k.\nLonger-term, the company's scale and growing balance sheet Bitcoin position will offer it more flexibility to expand into related crypto services while adding to its mining capacity. For the upcoming quarters, the Q3 earnings report will provide an opportunity to take a look at the cost structure as production accelerates. Monitoring points include the monthly updates while it will be important for the company to remain on schedule with the mining machines deliveries and deployments.\nIt goes without saying that the main risk here continues to be the price of Bitcoin. While we are bullish, shares are of MARA will be highly sensitive to the cryptocurrency market price. A selloff in BTC under $50k would likely drive some renewed bearish sentiment and higher volatility. The regulatory landscape also remains uncertain. Efforts by some U.S. states to limit Bitcoin mining along with environmental impact concerns can generate headlines that pressure the segment lower. For 2022, we believe the market will begin to look more closely at earnings and cash flows beyond the high-level themes and momentum.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MARA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3267,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":55,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/853689181"}