Risky game_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-10-21

Risky game although the potential returns lookvery impressive.

Marathon Digital Stock: More Upside With A Breakout In Bitcoin<blockquote>马拉松数字股票：比特币突破带来更多上涨空间</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":853689181,"tweetId":"853689181","gmtCreate":1634800403686,"gmtModify":1634800403834,"author":{"id":3586406638423368,"idStr":"3586406638423368","authorId":3586406638423368,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":7,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Risky game although the potential returns lookvery impressive.</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Risky game although the potential returns lookvery impressive.</body></html>","text":"Risky game although the potential returns lookvery impressive.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853689181","repostId":1114856613,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114856613","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634799659,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114856613?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-21 15:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Marathon Digital Stock: More Upside With A Breakout In Bitcoin<blockquote>马拉松数字股票：比特币突破带来更多上涨空间</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114856613","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMarathon Digital Holdings is benefiting from the strong momentum in bitcoin approaching an ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Marathon Digital Holdings is benefiting from the strong momentum in bitcoin approaching an all-time high.</li> <li>The company has reported strong bitcoin mining production growth which is expected to accelerate as it increases capacity.</li> <li>We are bullish on the stock which we believe can continue to outperform the price of bitcoin.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d7bf6e4e906ea0634d29e16cfcb23d9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">24K-Production/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Marathon Digital Holdings受益于比特币接近历史新高的强劲势头。</li><li>该公司报告称，比特币矿业产量增长强劲，预计随着产能的增加，产量将加速增长。</li><li>我们看好该股，我们相信该股的表现可以继续跑赢比特币的价格。</li></ul>24K-Production/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(NASDAQ:MARA)&nbsp;has achieved juggernaut status as the leading Bitcoin mining stock benefiting from the ongoing crypto bull market. Shares are up over 360% this year and there is a strong case for more upside. The key is to put aside any outdated misconceptions about the industry and recognize that the company is generating massive revenue growth with earnings set to ramp up. Indeed, with the price of Bitcoin climbing back above $60k, MARA's own all-time high of $58 set back in early April is again within reach. In many ways, the outlook for Bitcoin mining and the broader crypto space has never been more positive. We are bullish on MARA expect shares to continue outperforming through 2022, gaining momentum as it captures a higher valuation premium.<blockquote>Marathon Digital Holdings Inc（纳斯达克股票代码：MARA）受益于持续的加密货币牛市，已成为比特币领先的矿业股。今年股价上涨了360%以上，并且有充分的理由进一步上涨。关键是抛开对该行业任何过时的误解，并认识到该公司正在产生巨大的收入增长，盈利将会增加。事实上，随着比特币的价格回升至6万美元以上，MARA在4月初创下的58美元的历史高点再次触手可及。在许多方面，比特币挖矿和更广泛的加密领域的前景从未如此乐观。我们看好MARA，预计其股价将在2022年继续跑赢大盘，并随着其获得更高的估值溢价而获得动力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae131d9493e92d6449acd5fe4aae4a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote> MARA Strong Bitcoin Mining Growth<blockquote>MARA比特币矿业增长强劲</blockquote> The company provided a production update in early October with the headline of mining 1,252.4 Bitcoins in Q3, nearly double the 664.3 total mined in Q2. While the price of Bitcoin averaged around $42k in the quarter, the current market price of $60k implies a quarterly revenue run rate of $75 million that is expected to accelerate going forward as the company continues to expand its capacity. Marathon now holds 7,035 Bitcoin on its balance sheet with a value of over $422 million in addition to a separate cash position of $33 million.<blockquote>该公司在10月初提供了生产更新，标题是第三季度开采了1,252.4个比特币，几乎是第二季度开采总量664.3个的两倍。虽然比特币本季度的平均价格约为4.2万美元，但目前6万美元的市场价格意味着季度收入运行率为7500万美元，随着公司继续扩大产能，预计未来将加速增长。Marathon目前在其资产负债表上持有7,035份比特币，价值超过4.22亿美元，此外还有3300万美元的单独现金头寸。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6280bcec6f8519e422b36b50f1ad702\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: company IR<blockquote>资料来源：公司IR</blockquote> From a reported 29,960 mining machines at the end of September and 2.7 EH/s in hash rate, the plan is to deploy a total of 133,000 miners by mid-2022 meaning the company's mining capacity will be 5x larger than its current level. Management noted some recent logistical issues have impacted shipping times to the company's facility in Hardin, Montana but reaffirmed its schedule of installations through next year.<blockquote>根据9月底报告的29,960台矿机和2.7 EH/s的哈希率，该计划是到2022年中期部署总共133,000名矿工，这意味着该公司的采矿能力将是目前水平的5倍。管理层指出，最近的一些物流问题影响了该公司位于蒙大拿州哈丁工厂的运输时间，但重申了明年的安装计划。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dda9d658a8671363d36682b39de88f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: company IR<blockquote>资料来源：公司IR</blockquote> Assuming the entire fleet of miners was fully deployed right now, it is estimated Marathon would control around 8.4% of the global Bitcoin network based on the current network difficulty of around 158 EH/s compared to the current 2% as per the chart above. At 8.4%, Marathon could theoretically be mining close to 2,275 Bitcoins per month representing a market value of $137 million or $1.6 billion as an annualized run rate. These are the types of figures that help justify the company's current market cap near $5 billion.<blockquote>假设整个矿工机队现在已完全部署，根据当前约158 EH/s的网络难度，预计Marathon将控制全球比特币网络约8.4%的份额，而根据上图，目前为2%。理论上，Marathon每月可以开采近2,275个比特币，市值为1.37亿美元，年化运行率为16亿美元。这些数字有助于证明该公司目前近50亿美元的市值是合理的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a148065410a5daa0467a904f95e710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: company IR<blockquote>资料来源：公司IR</blockquote> According to consensus estimates, the market is forecasting MARA 2021 revenue to reach $225 million along with positive EPS of $0.94 this year. Again, the real optimism is for next year as capacity and production ramps ups through the second half of 2022 with an estimate for revenue to approach $790 million and EPS of $4.16. Even considering the breathtaking rally in shares of MARA this year, we believe the current valuation metrics including a 1-year forward price to sales multiple of 6.2x and 12x P/E ratio on the 2022 consensus EPS are attractive. The reality is that there are few stocks in any sector generating this type of growth with a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.<blockquote>根据普遍预测，市场预测MARA 2021年收入将达到2.25亿美元，今年每股收益为0.94美元。同样，真正乐观的是明年，随着2022年下半年产能和产量的增加，预计收入将接近7.9亿美元，每股收益将达到4.16美元。即使考虑到今年MARA股价的惊人上涨，我们也认为当前的估值指标（包括2022年共识每股收益的6.2倍和12倍市盈率）具有吸引力。现实情况是，任何行业中都很少有股票能够产生这种类型的增长，并且对比特币前景乐观。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6ee8bb568d2b57f5f9bee2201acb45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote> Bullish on Bitcoin<blockquote>看好比特币</blockquote> Compared to the \"crypto winter\" during the summer months when the price of Bitcoin briefly traded under $30k in what was a painful 50% correction, the sentiment has decisively turned positive. Our sense is that many of the long-term drivers for Bitcoin including the growing recognition at the institutional level of cryptocurrencies as an alternative asset class along with ongoing adoption for payments continue to represent fundamental tailwinds that can drive the price of Bitcoin higher.<blockquote>与夏季的“加密货币冬天”相比，当时比特币的价格短暂低于3万美元，痛苦地回调了50%，市场情绪已经决定性地转向积极。我们的感觉是，比特币的许多长期驱动因素，包括机构层面对加密货币作为替代资产类别的日益认可以及支付的持续采用，继续代表着可能推高比特币价格的基本推动力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b24b52a2b30b155f858d4c78704db52c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: company IR<blockquote>资料来源：公司IR</blockquote> From a technical standpoint, the selloff likely helped to consolidate the multi-year gains in Bitcoin following a particularly strong 2020 which now establishes a stronger base of support for the next leg higher. While Bitcoin is still a few percentage points below its April all-time high of $65k, there are some good reasons to believe a breakout is on tap.<blockquote>从技术角度来看，抛售可能有助于巩固比特币在经历了特别强劲的2020年之后的多年涨幅，现在为下一轮上涨奠定了更强大的支撑基础。尽管比特币仍比4月份6.5万美元的历史高点低几个百分点，但有一些充分的理由相信即将突破。</blockquote> First, reports are that a&nbsp;Bitcoin ETF&nbsp;linked to traded Bitcoin futures is set to begin trading this week through the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF(NYSEARCA:BITO). The expectation is for many other Bitcoin exchange-traded products to be approved still this year which can be interpreted as an apparent stamp of approval by regulators that cryptocurrencies are here to stay. The potential that the new instruments funnel more capital into the space can directly drive the price of Bitcoin further.<blockquote>首先，有报道称，与比特币期货交易挂钩的比特币ETF将于本周通过ProShares比特币策略ETF（NYSEARCA：BITO）开始交易。预计许多其他比特币交易所交易产品今年仍将获得批准，这可以被解释为监管机构明显批准加密货币将继续存在。新工具将更多资本注入该领域的潜力可能会直接进一步推高比特币的价格。</blockquote> We have a year-ahead price target of $100,000 for Bitcoin (BTC-USD) which is about 60% higher than the current level. Our base case is that even with some expected volatility and pullbacks on profit-taking, the trend higher can be accelerated through Q4 with a repeat of the action from 2020. While the run in Bitcoin likely had some doubters in Q1 this year, its ability to brush aside the headwinds between concerns over environmental impacts and global regulation only helps reinforce the long-term outlook.<blockquote>我们对比特币(BTC-USD)的未来一年目标价为100,000美元，比当前水平高出约60%。我们的基本情况是，即使存在一些预期的波动和获利回吐，随着2020年的重复，第四季度的上涨趋势也可能会加速。尽管比特币今年第一季度的表现可能引起了一些怀疑，但它能够抛开对环境影响的担忧和全球监管之间的阻力，只会有助于增强长期前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba484e07c8f9f005525cba220d0c34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">finviz.com<blockquote>finviz.com</blockquote> The fund manager ARK Invest has published research suggesting a growing allocation by institutional investors towards Bitcoin could impact the price between $200,000 and $500,000 long term. The group believes just a 1% allocation towards Bitcoin by all groups of institutional investors would incrementally add $100,000 to the price of Bitcoin. We expect the wider availability of Bitcoin and crypto investment products to gradually become a staple of diversified portfolios for all investors. In the near term, in our view, the $100k price level will eventually act as a magnet for traders to target through momentum based on the psychological importance of the round number.<blockquote>基金管理公司ARK Invest发表的研究表明，机构投资者对比特币的配置不断增加，可能会长期影响20万至50万美元的价格。该组织认为，所有机构投资者团体仅向比特币分配1%的资金，比特币的价格就会增加10万美元。我们预计比特币和加密货币投资产品的更广泛使用将逐渐成为所有投资者多元化投资组合的主要内容。在我们看来，短期内，10万美元的价格水平最终将成为交易者根据整数的心理重要性通过动量来瞄准的磁铁。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9f6776e72cad8d908f9b9c270810e92\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Ark Invest<blockquote>资料来源：方舟投资</blockquote> MARA Stock Forecast<blockquote>MARA股票预测</blockquote> As it relates to MARA, the higher the price of Bitcoin directly translates into higher revenue and earnings potential. We expect Bitcoin miners to outperform the crypto price to the upside based on the concept of operating leverage. Simply put, higher revenues can correspond to an even higher impact to operating income and earnings. Marathon's advantage is both its current scale with a leg up on other miners attempting to secure production capacity through next year. The company's low cost of electricity with an estimated production cost of $5,612 per Bitcoin highlights the profitability potential. MARA's efforts at sustainability with a plan to be 100% carbon neutral by the end of 2022 is a benchmark for the entire industry.<blockquote>就MARA而言，比特币的价格越高，直接转化为更高的收入和盈利潜力。基于运营杠杆的概念，我们预计比特币矿商的表现将优于加密货币价格。简而言之，更高的收入可能会对营业收入和收益产生更大的影响。马拉松的优势在于其目前的规模和其他试图确保明年产能的矿商的优势。该公司的电力成本较低，估计每比特币的生产成本为5,612美元，凸显了盈利潜力。MARA在可持续发展方面的努力是整个行业的标杆，计划到2022年底实现100%碳中和。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f2a439d461073969566bfb6372e5a1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: company IR<blockquote>资料来源：公司IR</blockquote> To forecast how many Bitcoins and revenue MARA will be generating by this time next year, we need to consider not only the price of Bitcoin but also the Bitcoin network difficulty. It's understood that as more mining machines go online, the network hash rate will climb and thereby dilute each existing miners' share of the Bitcoin mining potential. Over the course of a year, 52,560 Bitcoin blocks are awarded by the network with each block representing 6.25 BTC. The 328,500 newly minted Bitcoin mined over the course of a year is the market potential MARA is attempting to capture.<blockquote>要预测明年这个时候MARA将产生多少比特币和收入，我们不仅需要考虑比特币的价格，还需要考虑比特币网络的难度。据了解，随着更多矿机上线，网络哈希率将攀升，从而稀释每个现有矿工在比特币挖矿潜力中的份额。在一年的时间里，该网络授予了52,560个比特币区块，每个区块代表6.25 BTC。一年内新开采的328,500辆比特币是MARA试图抓住的市场潜力。</blockquote> We mentioned the company's guidance for 13.3 EH/s represents about 8.4% of the current global hash rate. In reality, by the time the full fleet of mining machines is deployed, it's likely the network difficulty will be above 200 EH/s meaning the 8.4% share will be reduced down towards 6.7% or lower. There is a great deal of uncertainty as to how this rate will progress although the general consensus is that the network difficultly will trend higher. From the chart below, we can observe a large drop in the global hash rate in mid-2021 which coincided with Chinese miners going offline as mining was banned in the country. The other dynamic at play is that some of the oldest mining machines online currently go past their lifecycle and need to be replaced generating a regular turnover.<blockquote>我们提到该公司13.3 EH/s的指导约占当前全球哈希率的8.4%。事实上，当所有矿机部署完毕时，网络难度可能会超过200 EH/s，这意味着8.4%的份额将降至6.7%或更低。尽管普遍的共识是网络很难走高，但这一速度将如何发展还存在很大的不确定性。从下图中，我们可以观察到2021年年中全球哈希率大幅下降，恰逢中国矿商因该国禁止采矿而下线。另一个因素是，一些最古老的在线矿机目前已经过了生命周期，需要更换，以产生定期的营业额。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22dda2e73253a8137117a0f57124b926\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> We are extrapolating how much Marathon's revenue run rate could be by the second half of next year when it fully deploys all announced mining machine purchases. For example, with a hash rate capacity of 13.3 EH/s by mid-2022, assuming a network difficultly level of 215 EH/s at that point, MARA would control 6.2% of the global hash rate and be able to mine approximately 1,693 Bitcoins in a single month. At the current market price of $60k, the monthly revenue would approach $102 million which is annualized to $1.219 billion. By this measure, we can state that shares of MARA are trading at a forward price to sales multiple of 4.3x based on its expected annualized revenue run rate by next year against the current market cap for the stock at $5.2 billion.<blockquote>我们正在推断，到明年下半年，当马拉松全面部署所有已宣布的矿机采购时，其收入运行率可能会达到多少。例如，到2022年年中，哈希速率容量为13.3 EH/s，假设网络难度水平为215 EH/s，MARA将控制全球哈希速率的6.2%，并能够在一个月内挖掘大约1,693个比特币。以目前6万美元的市场价格计算，月收入将接近1.02亿美元，年化收入为12.19亿美元。通过这一衡量标准，我们可以说，根据明年的预期年化收入运行率，MARA股票的远期市销率为4.3倍，而该股目前的市值为52亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a91df4ee0c4ed3b80e6e4733b6247d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: author estimates<blockquote>资料来源：作者估计</blockquote> In our view, MARA is undervalued at its current level in the context of the Bitcoin pricing environment and growth outlook. A forward P/S multiple closer to 5x would better reflect an appropriate growth premium and the company's positive outlook in our opinion. By this measure, at a constant BTC price of $60k and an outlook for the hash rate to trend towards 215 EH/s, we believe MARA should be valued closer to $61.50 as a near-term price target.<blockquote>我们认为，在比特币定价环境和增长前景的背景下，MARA目前的估值被低估。我们认为，接近5倍的远期市盈率将更好地反映适当的增长溢价和公司的积极前景。按照这一标准，在BTC价格保持在6万美元的情况下，哈希率有望达到215 EH/s，我们认为MARA的近期目标价应接近61.50美元。</blockquote> Going a step further, with an outlook for Bitcoin to potentially reach $100k by next year, we see shares of MARA trending towards $100. From the table above, the Bitcoin market price of $100k at a 215 EH/s hash rate for next year implies MARA is currently trading at a forward P/S of 2.6x. The stock would need to climb at least 92% from the current level to maintain the valuation parity of 5x based on our model.<blockquote>更进一步，预计比特币明年可能达到10万美元，我们认为MARA的股价将趋向100美元。从上表来看，明年比特币市场价格为10万美元，哈希率为215 EH/s，这意味着MARA目前的远期市盈率为2.6倍。根据我们的模型，该股需要从当前水平上涨至少92%才能维持5倍的估值平价。</blockquote> The Big Picture<blockquote>大图</blockquote> The Bitcoin mining industry continues to mature with more and more investors beginning to recognize the intrinsic value the leading stocks are generating. Marathon Digital as a U.S.-based leader remains one of the most exciting companies in the segment in the middle of a transformative year. We are encouraged by the recent operating and financial results and expect the company to continue executing successfully. We rate shares of MARA as a buy with a bullish price target of $100 per share in a scenario where Bitcoin trends towards $100k.<blockquote>随着越来越多的投资者开始认识到龙头股所产生的内在价值，比特币采矿业不断成熟。Marathon Digital作为美国的领导者，在变革的一年中仍然是该领域最令人兴奋的公司之一。我们对最近的运营和财务业绩感到鼓舞，并预计公司将继续成功执行。在比特币股价趋于10万美元的情况下，我们将MARA股票评级为买入，看涨目标价为每股100美元。</blockquote> Longer-term, the company's scale and growing balance sheet Bitcoin position will offer it more flexibility to expand into related crypto services while adding to its mining capacity. For the upcoming quarters, the Q3 earnings report will provide an opportunity to take a look at the cost structure as production accelerates. Monitoring points include the monthly updates while it will be important for the company to remain on schedule with the mining machines deliveries and deployments.<blockquote>从长远来看，该公司的规模和不断增长的资产负债表比特币地位将为其提供更大的灵活性，以扩展到相关的加密服务，同时增加其采矿能力。对于未来几个季度，第三季度收益报告将提供一个机会来了解随着生产加速的成本结构。监控点包括每月更新，而公司保持采矿机交付和部署的进度非常重要。</blockquote> It goes without saying that the main risk here continues to be the price of Bitcoin. While we are bullish, shares are of MARA will be highly sensitive to the cryptocurrency market price. A selloff in BTC under $50k would likely drive some renewed bearish sentiment and higher volatility. The regulatory landscape also remains uncertain. Efforts by some U.S. states to limit Bitcoin mining along with environmental impact concerns can generate headlines that pressure the segment lower. For 2022, we believe the market will begin to look more closely at earnings and cash flows beyond the high-level themes and momentum.<blockquote>不言而喻，这里的主要风险仍然是比特币的价格。虽然我们看好，但MARA的股票将对加密货币市场价格高度敏感。BTC跌破5万美元可能会引发新的看跌情绪和更高的波动性。监管格局也仍然不确定。美国一些州限制比特币采矿的努力以及对环境影响的担忧可能会成为头条新闻，给该行业带来下行压力。对于2022年，我们认为市场将开始更密切地关注高层主题和势头之外的盈利和现金流。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Marathon Digital Stock: More Upside With A Breakout In Bitcoin<blockquote>马拉松数字股票：比特币突破带来更多上涨空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarathon Digital Stock: More Upside With A Breakout In Bitcoin<blockquote>马拉松数字股票：比特币突破带来更多上涨空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-10-21 15:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Marathon Digital Holdings is benefiting from the strong momentum in bitcoin approaching an all-time high.</li> <li>The company has reported strong bitcoin mining production growth which is expected to accelerate as it increases capacity.</li> <li>We are bullish on the stock which we believe can continue to outperform the price of bitcoin.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d7bf6e4e906ea0634d29e16cfcb23d9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">24K-Production/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Marathon Digital Holdings受益于比特币接近历史新高的强劲势头。</li><li>该公司报告称，比特币矿业产量增长强劲，预计随着产能的增加，产量将加速增长。</li><li>我们看好该股，我们相信该股的表现可以继续跑赢比特币的价格。</li></ul>24K-Production/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(NASDAQ:MARA)&nbsp;has achieved juggernaut status as the leading Bitcoin mining stock benefiting from the ongoing crypto bull market. Shares are up over 360% this year and there is a strong case for more upside. The key is to put aside any outdated misconceptions about the industry and recognize that the company is generating massive revenue growth with earnings set to ramp up. Indeed, with the price of Bitcoin climbing back above $60k, MARA's own all-time high of $58 set back in early April is again within reach. In many ways, the outlook for Bitcoin mining and the broader crypto space has never been more positive. We are bullish on MARA expect shares to continue outperforming through 2022, gaining momentum as it captures a higher valuation premium.<blockquote>Marathon Digital Holdings Inc（纳斯达克股票代码：MARA）受益于持续的加密货币牛市，已成为比特币领先的矿业股。今年股价上涨了360%以上，并且有充分的理由进一步上涨。关键是抛开对该行业任何过时的误解，并认识到该公司正在产生巨大的收入增长，盈利将会增加。事实上，随着比特币的价格回升至6万美元以上，MARA在4月初创下的58美元的历史高点再次触手可及。在许多方面，比特币挖矿和更广泛的加密领域的前景从未如此乐观。我们看好MARA，预计其股价将在2022年继续跑赢大盘，并随着其获得更高的估值溢价而获得动力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae131d9493e92d6449acd5fe4aae4a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote> MARA Strong Bitcoin Mining Growth<blockquote>MARA比特币矿业增长强劲</blockquote> The company provided a production update in early October with the headline of mining 1,252.4 Bitcoins in Q3, nearly double the 664.3 total mined in Q2. While the price of Bitcoin averaged around $42k in the quarter, the current market price of $60k implies a quarterly revenue run rate of $75 million that is expected to accelerate going forward as the company continues to expand its capacity. Marathon now holds 7,035 Bitcoin on its balance sheet with a value of over $422 million in addition to a separate cash position of $33 million.<blockquote>该公司在10月初提供了生产更新，标题是第三季度开采了1,252.4个比特币，几乎是第二季度开采总量664.3个的两倍。虽然比特币本季度的平均价格约为4.2万美元，但目前6万美元的市场价格意味着季度收入运行率为7500万美元，随着公司继续扩大产能，预计未来将加速增长。Marathon目前在其资产负债表上持有7,035份比特币，价值超过4.22亿美元，此外还有3300万美元的单独现金头寸。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6280bcec6f8519e422b36b50f1ad702\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: company IR<blockquote>资料来源：公司IR</blockquote> From a reported 29,960 mining machines at the end of September and 2.7 EH/s in hash rate, the plan is to deploy a total of 133,000 miners by mid-2022 meaning the company's mining capacity will be 5x larger than its current level. Management noted some recent logistical issues have impacted shipping times to the company's facility in Hardin, Montana but reaffirmed its schedule of installations through next year.<blockquote>根据9月底报告的29,960台矿机和2.7 EH/s的哈希率，该计划是到2022年中期部署总共133,000名矿工，这意味着该公司的采矿能力将是目前水平的5倍。管理层指出，最近的一些物流问题影响了该公司位于蒙大拿州哈丁工厂的运输时间，但重申了明年的安装计划。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dda9d658a8671363d36682b39de88f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: company IR<blockquote>资料来源：公司IR</blockquote> Assuming the entire fleet of miners was fully deployed right now, it is estimated Marathon would control around 8.4% of the global Bitcoin network based on the current network difficulty of around 158 EH/s compared to the current 2% as per the chart above. At 8.4%, Marathon could theoretically be mining close to 2,275 Bitcoins per month representing a market value of $137 million or $1.6 billion as an annualized run rate. These are the types of figures that help justify the company's current market cap near $5 billion.<blockquote>假设整个矿工机队现在已完全部署，根据当前约158 EH/s的网络难度，预计Marathon将控制全球比特币网络约8.4%的份额，而根据上图，目前为2%。理论上，Marathon每月可以开采近2,275个比特币，市值为1.37亿美元，年化运行率为16亿美元。这些数字有助于证明该公司目前近50亿美元的市值是合理的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a148065410a5daa0467a904f95e710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: company IR<blockquote>资料来源：公司IR</blockquote> According to consensus estimates, the market is forecasting MARA 2021 revenue to reach $225 million along with positive EPS of $0.94 this year. Again, the real optimism is for next year as capacity and production ramps ups through the second half of 2022 with an estimate for revenue to approach $790 million and EPS of $4.16. Even considering the breathtaking rally in shares of MARA this year, we believe the current valuation metrics including a 1-year forward price to sales multiple of 6.2x and 12x P/E ratio on the 2022 consensus EPS are attractive. The reality is that there are few stocks in any sector generating this type of growth with a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.<blockquote>根据普遍预测，市场预测MARA 2021年收入将达到2.25亿美元，今年每股收益为0.94美元。同样，真正乐观的是明年，随着2022年下半年产能和产量的增加，预计收入将接近7.9亿美元，每股收益将达到4.16美元。即使考虑到今年MARA股价的惊人上涨，我们也认为当前的估值指标（包括2022年共识每股收益的6.2倍和12倍市盈率）具有吸引力。现实情况是，任何行业中都很少有股票能够产生这种类型的增长，并且对比特币前景乐观。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6ee8bb568d2b57f5f9bee2201acb45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote> Bullish on Bitcoin<blockquote>看好比特币</blockquote> Compared to the \"crypto winter\" during the summer months when the price of Bitcoin briefly traded under $30k in what was a painful 50% correction, the sentiment has decisively turned positive. Our sense is that many of the long-term drivers for Bitcoin including the growing recognition at the institutional level of cryptocurrencies as an alternative asset class along with ongoing adoption for payments continue to represent fundamental tailwinds that can drive the price of Bitcoin higher.<blockquote>与夏季的“加密货币冬天”相比，当时比特币的价格短暂低于3万美元，痛苦地回调了50%，市场情绪已经决定性地转向积极。我们的感觉是，比特币的许多长期驱动因素，包括机构层面对加密货币作为替代资产类别的日益认可以及支付的持续采用，继续代表着可能推高比特币价格的基本推动力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b24b52a2b30b155f858d4c78704db52c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: company IR<blockquote>资料来源：公司IR</blockquote> From a technical standpoint, the selloff likely helped to consolidate the multi-year gains in Bitcoin following a particularly strong 2020 which now establishes a stronger base of support for the next leg higher. While Bitcoin is still a few percentage points below its April all-time high of $65k, there are some good reasons to believe a breakout is on tap.<blockquote>从技术角度来看，抛售可能有助于巩固比特币在经历了特别强劲的2020年之后的多年涨幅，现在为下一轮上涨奠定了更强大的支撑基础。尽管比特币仍比4月份6.5万美元的历史高点低几个百分点，但有一些充分的理由相信即将突破。</blockquote> First, reports are that a&nbsp;Bitcoin ETF&nbsp;linked to traded Bitcoin futures is set to begin trading this week through the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF(NYSEARCA:BITO). The expectation is for many other Bitcoin exchange-traded products to be approved still this year which can be interpreted as an apparent stamp of approval by regulators that cryptocurrencies are here to stay. The potential that the new instruments funnel more capital into the space can directly drive the price of Bitcoin further.<blockquote>首先，有报道称，与比特币期货交易挂钩的比特币ETF将于本周通过ProShares比特币策略ETF（NYSEARCA：BITO）开始交易。预计许多其他比特币交易所交易产品今年仍将获得批准，这可以被解释为监管机构明显批准加密货币将继续存在。新工具将更多资本注入该领域的潜力可能会直接进一步推高比特币的价格。</blockquote> We have a year-ahead price target of $100,000 for Bitcoin (BTC-USD) which is about 60% higher than the current level. Our base case is that even with some expected volatility and pullbacks on profit-taking, the trend higher can be accelerated through Q4 with a repeat of the action from 2020. While the run in Bitcoin likely had some doubters in Q1 this year, its ability to brush aside the headwinds between concerns over environmental impacts and global regulation only helps reinforce the long-term outlook.<blockquote>我们对比特币(BTC-USD)的未来一年目标价为100,000美元，比当前水平高出约60%。我们的基本情况是，即使存在一些预期的波动和获利回吐，随着2020年的重复，第四季度的上涨趋势也可能会加速。尽管比特币今年第一季度的表现可能引起了一些怀疑，但它能够抛开对环境影响的担忧和全球监管之间的阻力，只会有助于增强长期前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba484e07c8f9f005525cba220d0c34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">finviz.com<blockquote>finviz.com</blockquote> The fund manager ARK Invest has published research suggesting a growing allocation by institutional investors towards Bitcoin could impact the price between $200,000 and $500,000 long term. The group believes just a 1% allocation towards Bitcoin by all groups of institutional investors would incrementally add $100,000 to the price of Bitcoin. We expect the wider availability of Bitcoin and crypto investment products to gradually become a staple of diversified portfolios for all investors. In the near term, in our view, the $100k price level will eventually act as a magnet for traders to target through momentum based on the psychological importance of the round number.<blockquote>基金管理公司ARK Invest发表的研究表明，机构投资者对比特币的配置不断增加，可能会长期影响20万至50万美元的价格。该组织认为，所有机构投资者团体仅向比特币分配1%的资金，比特币的价格就会增加10万美元。我们预计比特币和加密货币投资产品的更广泛使用将逐渐成为所有投资者多元化投资组合的主要内容。在我们看来，短期内，10万美元的价格水平最终将成为交易者根据整数的心理重要性通过动量来瞄准的磁铁。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9f6776e72cad8d908f9b9c270810e92\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Ark Invest<blockquote>资料来源：方舟投资</blockquote> MARA Stock Forecast<blockquote>MARA股票预测</blockquote> As it relates to MARA, the higher the price of Bitcoin directly translates into higher revenue and earnings potential. We expect Bitcoin miners to outperform the crypto price to the upside based on the concept of operating leverage. Simply put, higher revenues can correspond to an even higher impact to operating income and earnings. Marathon's advantage is both its current scale with a leg up on other miners attempting to secure production capacity through next year. The company's low cost of electricity with an estimated production cost of $5,612 per Bitcoin highlights the profitability potential. MARA's efforts at sustainability with a plan to be 100% carbon neutral by the end of 2022 is a benchmark for the entire industry.<blockquote>就MARA而言，比特币的价格越高，直接转化为更高的收入和盈利潜力。基于运营杠杆的概念，我们预计比特币矿商的表现将优于加密货币价格。简而言之，更高的收入可能会对营业收入和收益产生更大的影响。马拉松的优势在于其目前的规模和其他试图确保明年产能的矿商的优势。该公司的电力成本较低，估计每比特币的生产成本为5,612美元，凸显了盈利潜力。MARA在可持续发展方面的努力是整个行业的标杆，计划到2022年底实现100%碳中和。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f2a439d461073969566bfb6372e5a1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: company IR<blockquote>资料来源：公司IR</blockquote> To forecast how many Bitcoins and revenue MARA will be generating by this time next year, we need to consider not only the price of Bitcoin but also the Bitcoin network difficulty. It's understood that as more mining machines go online, the network hash rate will climb and thereby dilute each existing miners' share of the Bitcoin mining potential. Over the course of a year, 52,560 Bitcoin blocks are awarded by the network with each block representing 6.25 BTC. The 328,500 newly minted Bitcoin mined over the course of a year is the market potential MARA is attempting to capture.<blockquote>要预测明年这个时候MARA将产生多少比特币和收入，我们不仅需要考虑比特币的价格，还需要考虑比特币网络的难度。据了解，随着更多矿机上线，网络哈希率将攀升，从而稀释每个现有矿工在比特币挖矿潜力中的份额。在一年的时间里，该网络授予了52,560个比特币区块，每个区块代表6.25 BTC。一年内新开采的328,500辆比特币是MARA试图抓住的市场潜力。</blockquote> We mentioned the company's guidance for 13.3 EH/s represents about 8.4% of the current global hash rate. In reality, by the time the full fleet of mining machines is deployed, it's likely the network difficulty will be above 200 EH/s meaning the 8.4% share will be reduced down towards 6.7% or lower. There is a great deal of uncertainty as to how this rate will progress although the general consensus is that the network difficultly will trend higher. From the chart below, we can observe a large drop in the global hash rate in mid-2021 which coincided with Chinese miners going offline as mining was banned in the country. The other dynamic at play is that some of the oldest mining machines online currently go past their lifecycle and need to be replaced generating a regular turnover.<blockquote>我们提到该公司13.3 EH/s的指导约占当前全球哈希率的8.4%。事实上，当所有矿机部署完毕时，网络难度可能会超过200 EH/s，这意味着8.4%的份额将降至6.7%或更低。尽管普遍的共识是网络很难走高，但这一速度将如何发展还存在很大的不确定性。从下图中，我们可以观察到2021年年中全球哈希率大幅下降，恰逢中国矿商因该国禁止采矿而下线。另一个因素是，一些最古老的在线矿机目前已经过了生命周期，需要更换，以产生定期的营业额。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22dda2e73253a8137117a0f57124b926\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> We are extrapolating how much Marathon's revenue run rate could be by the second half of next year when it fully deploys all announced mining machine purchases. For example, with a hash rate capacity of 13.3 EH/s by mid-2022, assuming a network difficultly level of 215 EH/s at that point, MARA would control 6.2% of the global hash rate and be able to mine approximately 1,693 Bitcoins in a single month. At the current market price of $60k, the monthly revenue would approach $102 million which is annualized to $1.219 billion. By this measure, we can state that shares of MARA are trading at a forward price to sales multiple of 4.3x based on its expected annualized revenue run rate by next year against the current market cap for the stock at $5.2 billion.<blockquote>我们正在推断，到明年下半年，当马拉松全面部署所有已宣布的矿机采购时，其收入运行率可能会达到多少。例如，到2022年年中，哈希速率容量为13.3 EH/s，假设网络难度水平为215 EH/s，MARA将控制全球哈希速率的6.2%，并能够在一个月内挖掘大约1,693个比特币。以目前6万美元的市场价格计算，月收入将接近1.02亿美元，年化收入为12.19亿美元。通过这一衡量标准，我们可以说，根据明年的预期年化收入运行率，MARA股票的远期市销率为4.3倍，而该股目前的市值为52亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a91df4ee0c4ed3b80e6e4733b6247d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: author estimates<blockquote>资料来源：作者估计</blockquote> In our view, MARA is undervalued at its current level in the context of the Bitcoin pricing environment and growth outlook. A forward P/S multiple closer to 5x would better reflect an appropriate growth premium and the company's positive outlook in our opinion. By this measure, at a constant BTC price of $60k and an outlook for the hash rate to trend towards 215 EH/s, we believe MARA should be valued closer to $61.50 as a near-term price target.<blockquote>我们认为，在比特币定价环境和增长前景的背景下，MARA目前的估值被低估。我们认为，接近5倍的远期市盈率将更好地反映适当的增长溢价和公司的积极前景。按照这一标准，在BTC价格保持在6万美元的情况下，哈希率有望达到215 EH/s，我们认为MARA的近期目标价应接近61.50美元。</blockquote> Going a step further, with an outlook for Bitcoin to potentially reach $100k by next year, we see shares of MARA trending towards $100. From the table above, the Bitcoin market price of $100k at a 215 EH/s hash rate for next year implies MARA is currently trading at a forward P/S of 2.6x. The stock would need to climb at least 92% from the current level to maintain the valuation parity of 5x based on our model.<blockquote>更进一步，预计比特币明年可能达到10万美元，我们认为MARA的股价将趋向100美元。从上表来看，明年比特币市场价格为10万美元，哈希率为215 EH/s，这意味着MARA目前的远期市盈率为2.6倍。根据我们的模型，该股需要从当前水平上涨至少92%才能维持5倍的估值平价。</blockquote> The Big Picture<blockquote>大图</blockquote> The Bitcoin mining industry continues to mature with more and more investors beginning to recognize the intrinsic value the leading stocks are generating. Marathon Digital as a U.S.-based leader remains one of the most exciting companies in the segment in the middle of a transformative year. We are encouraged by the recent operating and financial results and expect the company to continue executing successfully. We rate shares of MARA as a buy with a bullish price target of $100 per share in a scenario where Bitcoin trends towards $100k.<blockquote>随着越来越多的投资者开始认识到龙头股所产生的内在价值，比特币采矿业不断成熟。Marathon Digital作为美国的领导者，在变革的一年中仍然是该领域最令人兴奋的公司之一。我们对最近的运营和财务业绩感到鼓舞，并预计公司将继续成功执行。在比特币股价趋于10万美元的情况下，我们将MARA股票评级为买入，看涨目标价为每股100美元。</blockquote> Longer-term, the company's scale and growing balance sheet Bitcoin position will offer it more flexibility to expand into related crypto services while adding to its mining capacity. For the upcoming quarters, the Q3 earnings report will provide an opportunity to take a look at the cost structure as production accelerates. Monitoring points include the monthly updates while it will be important for the company to remain on schedule with the mining machines deliveries and deployments.<blockquote>从长远来看，该公司的规模和不断增长的资产负债表比特币地位将为其提供更大的灵活性，以扩展到相关的加密服务，同时增加其采矿能力。对于未来几个季度，第三季度收益报告将提供一个机会来了解随着生产加速的成本结构。监控点包括每月更新，而公司保持采矿机交付和部署的进度非常重要。</blockquote> It goes without saying that the main risk here continues to be the price of Bitcoin. While we are bullish, shares are of MARA will be highly sensitive to the cryptocurrency market price. A selloff in BTC under $50k would likely drive some renewed bearish sentiment and higher volatility. The regulatory landscape also remains uncertain. Efforts by some U.S. states to limit Bitcoin mining along with environmental impact concerns can generate headlines that pressure the segment lower. For 2022, we believe the market will begin to look more closely at earnings and cash flows beyond the high-level themes and momentum.<blockquote>不言而喻，这里的主要风险仍然是比特币的价格。虽然我们看好，但MARA的股票将对加密货币市场价格高度敏感。BTC跌破5万美元可能会引发新的看跌情绪和更高的波动性。监管格局也仍然不确定。美国一些州限制比特币采矿的努力以及对环境影响的担忧可能会成为头条新闻，给该行业带来下行压力。对于2022年，我们认为市场将开始更密切地关注高层主题和势头之外的盈利和现金流。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460632-marathon-digital-more-upside-with-breakout-in-bitcoin\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3cdd0b2f46028be0fdb985c3d97141c","relate_stocks":{"MARA":"MARA Holdings"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460632-marathon-digital-more-upside-with-breakout-in-bitcoin","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114856613","content_text":"Summary\n\nMarathon Digital Holdings is benefiting from the strong momentum in bitcoin approaching an all-time high.\nThe company has reported strong bitcoin mining production growth which is expected to accelerate as it increases capacity.\nWe are bullish on the stock which we believe can continue to outperform the price of bitcoin.\n\n24K-Production/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nMarathon Digital Holdings Inc(NASDAQ:MARA) has achieved juggernaut status as the leading Bitcoin mining stock benefiting from the ongoing crypto bull market. Shares are up over 360% this year and there is a strong case for more upside. The key is to put aside any outdated misconceptions about the industry and recognize that the company is generating massive revenue growth with earnings set to ramp up. Indeed, with the price of Bitcoin climbing back above $60k, MARA's own all-time high of $58 set back in early April is again within reach. In many ways, the outlook for Bitcoin mining and the broader crypto space has never been more positive. We are bullish on MARA expect shares to continue outperforming through 2022, gaining momentum as it captures a higher valuation premium.\nSeeking Alpha\nMARA Strong Bitcoin Mining Growth\nThe company provided a production update in early October with the headline of mining 1,252.4 Bitcoins in Q3, nearly double the 664.3 total mined in Q2. While the price of Bitcoin averaged around $42k in the quarter, the current market price of $60k implies a quarterly revenue run rate of $75 million that is expected to accelerate going forward as the company continues to expand its capacity. Marathon now holds 7,035 Bitcoin on its balance sheet with a value of over $422 million in addition to a separate cash position of $33 million.\nsource: company IR\nFrom a reported 29,960 mining machines at the end of September and 2.7 EH/s in hash rate, the plan is to deploy a total of 133,000 miners by mid-2022 meaning the company's mining capacity will be 5x larger than its current level. Management noted some recent logistical issues have impacted shipping times to the company's facility in Hardin, Montana but reaffirmed its schedule of installations through next year.\nsource: company IR\nAssuming the entire fleet of miners was fully deployed right now, it is estimated Marathon would control around 8.4% of the global Bitcoin network based on the current network difficulty of around 158 EH/s compared to the current 2% as per the chart above. At 8.4%, Marathon could theoretically be mining close to 2,275 Bitcoins per month representing a market value of $137 million or $1.6 billion as an annualized run rate. These are the types of figures that help justify the company's current market cap near $5 billion.\nsource: company IR\nAccording to consensus estimates, the market is forecasting MARA 2021 revenue to reach $225 million along with positive EPS of $0.94 this year. Again, the real optimism is for next year as capacity and production ramps ups through the second half of 2022 with an estimate for revenue to approach $790 million and EPS of $4.16. Even considering the breathtaking rally in shares of MARA this year, we believe the current valuation metrics including a 1-year forward price to sales multiple of 6.2x and 12x P/E ratio on the 2022 consensus EPS are attractive. The reality is that there are few stocks in any sector generating this type of growth with a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.\nSeeking Alpha\nBullish on Bitcoin\nCompared to the \"crypto winter\" during the summer months when the price of Bitcoin briefly traded under $30k in what was a painful 50% correction, the sentiment has decisively turned positive. Our sense is that many of the long-term drivers for Bitcoin including the growing recognition at the institutional level of cryptocurrencies as an alternative asset class along with ongoing adoption for payments continue to represent fundamental tailwinds that can drive the price of Bitcoin higher.\nsource: company IR\nFrom a technical standpoint, the selloff likely helped to consolidate the multi-year gains in Bitcoin following a particularly strong 2020 which now establishes a stronger base of support for the next leg higher. While Bitcoin is still a few percentage points below its April all-time high of $65k, there are some good reasons to believe a breakout is on tap.\nFirst, reports are that a Bitcoin ETF linked to traded Bitcoin futures is set to begin trading this week through the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF(NYSEARCA:BITO). The expectation is for many other Bitcoin exchange-traded products to be approved still this year which can be interpreted as an apparent stamp of approval by regulators that cryptocurrencies are here to stay. The potential that the new instruments funnel more capital into the space can directly drive the price of Bitcoin further.\nWe have a year-ahead price target of $100,000 for Bitcoin (BTC-USD) which is about 60% higher than the current level. Our base case is that even with some expected volatility and pullbacks on profit-taking, the trend higher can be accelerated through Q4 with a repeat of the action from 2020. While the run in Bitcoin likely had some doubters in Q1 this year, its ability to brush aside the headwinds between concerns over environmental impacts and global regulation only helps reinforce the long-term outlook.\nfinviz.com\nThe fund manager ARK Invest has published research suggesting a growing allocation by institutional investors towards Bitcoin could impact the price between $200,000 and $500,000 long term. The group believes just a 1% allocation towards Bitcoin by all groups of institutional investors would incrementally add $100,000 to the price of Bitcoin. We expect the wider availability of Bitcoin and crypto investment products to gradually become a staple of diversified portfolios for all investors. In the near term, in our view, the $100k price level will eventually act as a magnet for traders to target through momentum based on the psychological importance of the round number.\nsource: Ark Invest\nMARA Stock Forecast\nAs it relates to MARA, the higher the price of Bitcoin directly translates into higher revenue and earnings potential. We expect Bitcoin miners to outperform the crypto price to the upside based on the concept of operating leverage. Simply put, higher revenues can correspond to an even higher impact to operating income and earnings. Marathon's advantage is both its current scale with a leg up on other miners attempting to secure production capacity through next year. The company's low cost of electricity with an estimated production cost of $5,612 per Bitcoin highlights the profitability potential. MARA's efforts at sustainability with a plan to be 100% carbon neutral by the end of 2022 is a benchmark for the entire industry.\nsource: company IR\nTo forecast how many Bitcoins and revenue MARA will be generating by this time next year, we need to consider not only the price of Bitcoin but also the Bitcoin network difficulty. It's understood that as more mining machines go online, the network hash rate will climb and thereby dilute each existing miners' share of the Bitcoin mining potential. Over the course of a year, 52,560 Bitcoin blocks are awarded by the network with each block representing 6.25 BTC. The 328,500 newly minted Bitcoin mined over the course of a year is the market potential MARA is attempting to capture.\nWe mentioned the company's guidance for 13.3 EH/s represents about 8.4% of the current global hash rate. In reality, by the time the full fleet of mining machines is deployed, it's likely the network difficulty will be above 200 EH/s meaning the 8.4% share will be reduced down towards 6.7% or lower. There is a great deal of uncertainty as to how this rate will progress although the general consensus is that the network difficultly will trend higher. From the chart below, we can observe a large drop in the global hash rate in mid-2021 which coincided with Chinese miners going offline as mining was banned in the country. The other dynamic at play is that some of the oldest mining machines online currently go past their lifecycle and need to be replaced generating a regular turnover.\nData by YCharts\nWe are extrapolating how much Marathon's revenue run rate could be by the second half of next year when it fully deploys all announced mining machine purchases. For example, with a hash rate capacity of 13.3 EH/s by mid-2022, assuming a network difficultly level of 215 EH/s at that point, MARA would control 6.2% of the global hash rate and be able to mine approximately 1,693 Bitcoins in a single month. At the current market price of $60k, the monthly revenue would approach $102 million which is annualized to $1.219 billion. By this measure, we can state that shares of MARA are trading at a forward price to sales multiple of 4.3x based on its expected annualized revenue run rate by next year against the current market cap for the stock at $5.2 billion.\nsource: author estimates\nIn our view, MARA is undervalued at its current level in the context of the Bitcoin pricing environment and growth outlook. A forward P/S multiple closer to 5x would better reflect an appropriate growth premium and the company's positive outlook in our opinion. By this measure, at a constant BTC price of $60k and an outlook for the hash rate to trend towards 215 EH/s, we believe MARA should be valued closer to $61.50 as a near-term price target.\nGoing a step further, with an outlook for Bitcoin to potentially reach $100k by next year, we see shares of MARA trending towards $100. From the table above, the Bitcoin market price of $100k at a 215 EH/s hash rate for next year implies MARA is currently trading at a forward P/S of 2.6x. The stock would need to climb at least 92% from the current level to maintain the valuation parity of 5x based on our model.\nThe Big Picture\nThe Bitcoin mining industry continues to mature with more and more investors beginning to recognize the intrinsic value the leading stocks are generating. Marathon Digital as a U.S.-based leader remains one of the most exciting companies in the segment in the middle of a transformative year. We are encouraged by the recent operating and financial results and expect the company to continue executing successfully. We rate shares of MARA as a buy with a bullish price target of $100 per share in a scenario where Bitcoin trends towards $100k.\nLonger-term, the company's scale and growing balance sheet Bitcoin position will offer it more flexibility to expand into related crypto services while adding to its mining capacity. For the upcoming quarters, the Q3 earnings report will provide an opportunity to take a look at the cost structure as production accelerates. Monitoring points include the monthly updates while it will be important for the company to remain on schedule with the mining machines deliveries and deployments.\nIt goes without saying that the main risk here continues to be the price of Bitcoin. While we are bullish, shares are of MARA will be highly sensitive to the cryptocurrency market price. A selloff in BTC under $50k would likely drive some renewed bearish sentiment and higher volatility. The regulatory landscape also remains uncertain. Efforts by some U.S. states to limit Bitcoin mining along with environmental impact concerns can generate headlines that pressure the segment lower. For 2022, we believe the market will begin to look more closely at earnings and cash flows beyond the high-level themes and momentum.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MARA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2308,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":55,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/853689181"}