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2021-10-21

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Markets Turn Cautious<blockquote>市场转向谨慎</blockquote>

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Equities are mostly lower today after the S&amp;P 500's six-day advance took it almost to its record high, while the NASDAQ's streak was halted at five sessions. The Nikkei's nearly 1.8% slide paced the Asia-Pacific session, where most bourses retreated. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off about 0.15% near midday after rising approximately 0.65% over the past two sessions. US futures point to a weaker opening. The US 10-year yield is slightly softer, around 1.64%, while European yields have edged higher. The dollar is firmer against most currencies, with the Antipodeans and Norwegian krone seeing the largest losses, while the yen is the most resilient. The dollar stalled yesterday in Asia near JPY114.70 and has been trending lower to reach JPY113.90 just before European markets opened. Emerging market currencies are also under pressure today, led by the South African rand and Turkish lira. Turkey's central bank is widely expected to lower its key repo rate today. Gold is firm and near the middle of the day's range (~$1780-$1790). December WTI set a new high just shy of $84 before retreating and is now below $83. Copper is off around 2%, which, if sustained, would be the largest loss this month. Other industrial metals are also trading heavily. The CRB Index rose to new highs yesterday and is up 5% on the month, the seventh consecutive monthly rise.<blockquote>在经历了几个交易日的更多风险后，投资者今天正在休息。在标准普尔 500 指数上涨六天几乎创下历史新高后，股市今天大多走低，而纳斯达克指数的连胜纪录在五个交易日停止。亚太时段，日经指数下跌近 1.8%，大多数股市下跌。欧洲道琼斯斯托克600指数在过去两个交易日上涨约0.65%后，临近中午下跌约0.15%。美国期货预计开盘走弱。美国10年期国债收益率略软，约为1.64%，而欧洲收益率则小幅走高。美元兑大多数货币走强，安提波迪安和挪威克朗跌幅最大，而日元最具弹性。美元昨天在亚洲停滞在114.70日元附近，并在欧洲市场开盘前走低至113.90日元。以南非兰特和土耳其里拉为首的新兴市场货币今天也面临压力。人们普遍预计土耳其央行今天将下调关键回购利率。黄金坚挺，接近当天区间的中间（~1780-1790美元）。12 月份 WTI 原油创下略低于 84 美元的新高，然后回落，目前低于 83 美元。铜价下跌约 2%，如果持续下去，将是本月最大跌幅。其他工业金属也交投活跃。CRB指数昨日升至新高，本月上涨5%，连续第七个月上涨。</blockquote> Asia Pacific<blockquote>亚太地区</blockquote> Japan's weekly portfolio flows show two trends remain intact.First, Japanese investors are buying foreign bonds. The JPY1.22 trillion bought last week was the most in six months. Buying has been elevated since the end of August. Second, foreign investors are buying Japanese stocks. They bought JPY960 bln last week after JPY1.01 trillion the week before. That is the most in two weeks in two-and-a-half years. Tomorrow, Japan reports September CPI, and the core rate, which excludes fresh food, is expected to be above zero for the first time since March 2020. Separately, the flash October PMI will also be released. It has not been above the 50 boom/bust level since January 2020.<blockquote>日本的每周投资组合流动显示两个趋势保持不变。首先，日本投资者正在购买外国债券。上周买入的1.22万亿日元是六个月来最多的。自8月底以来，购买量一直在上升。第二，外国投资者正在购买日本股票。继前一周1.01万亿日元之后，他们上周购买了9600亿日元。这是两年半以来两周内最多的一次。明天，日本将公布9月份CPI，不包括生鲜食品的核心利率预计将自2020年3月以来首次高于零。另外，10月份PMI也将公布。自2020年1月以来，它从未高于50的繁荣/萧条水平。</blockquote> Evergrande has ended efforts to sell a 50.1% stake in its listed property management arm.It has renewed anxiety about a disorderly default. A few other property developers are also in trouble. News yesterday of a decline in urban house prices weighs on sentiment. Separately, SWIFT reported that the yuan accounted for 2.19% of its volume last month. It is slightly higher than the 2.15% share in August but below the high for the year set in March at almost 2.50%.<blockquote>恒大已停止出售其上市物业管理部门 50.1% 股份的努力。这再次引发了人们对无序违约的担忧。其他几家房地产开发商也陷入困境。昨天城市房价下跌的消息打压了市场情绪。另外，SWIFT 报告称，人民币占上个月交易量的 2.19%。略高于 8 月份 2.15% 的份额，但低于 3 月份创下的年内高点近 2.50%。</blockquote> The dollar's advance against the Japanese yen, which brought it to JPY114.70, stalled.It snapped a four-day rally yesterday and is off about a quarter of 1% hovering near JPY114.00. Immediate support is seen around JPY113.80. The steep trendline off the September 22 and early October lows comes in today around JPY113.25.The Australian dollar is reversing lower after reaching almost $0.7550, its highest level since early July.It has been sold to around $0.7380 in Europe. A break and close below yesterday's low (~$0.7365) would warn of a deeper correction after it has rallied more than three cents this month.The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate above expectations (CNY6.3890 vs. CNY6.3876).The central bank has stepped up its liquidity provisions for the second session. The sharp drop in money market rates (overnight repo -41 bp to 1.67% and the seven-day repo -19 bp to 2.02%) may help reinforce the signal for a lower yuan. For the first time this month, the dollar edged higher against the yuan for the second consecutive session.<blockquote>美元兑日元升值至114.70日元，但停滞不前。它昨天结束了连续四天的涨势，下跌了约四分之一1%，徘徊在114.00日元附近。直接支撑位在 JPY113.80 附近。9月22日和10月初低点的陡峭趋势线今天在113.25日元附近。澳元在达到近0.7550美元（7月初以来的最高水平）后正在反转走低。它在欧洲的售价约为 0.7380 美元。突破并收于昨天的低点（约 0.7365 美元）下方将预示着本月上涨超过 3 美分后将出现更深层次的调整。中国人民银行将美元参考汇率设定为高于预期（人民币6.3890元对人民币6.3876元）。央行加大了二期流动性拨备力度。货币市场利率的大幅下降（隔夜回购-41个基点至1.67%，七天回购-19个基点至2.02%）可能有助于强化人民币贬值的信号。美元兑人民币汇率本月首次连续第二个交易日小幅走高。</blockquote> Europe<blockquote>欧洲</blockquote> The EU enlargement strategy, encouraged by the UK, had been one of broadening, not deepening.Nothing fails like success, and the cost of the UK strategy was the gradual shift to qualified majority voting, which meant the erosion of London's veto. With the UK counterweight gone and the issues changing, the emphasis seems more on deepening or reinforcing the common values. A crisis has been brewing for some time between the Polish and Hungarian governments and the EC and many individual members on the other. Poland's government is challenging the primacy of EU rules, specifically about the independence of the judiciary. The primacy of European law is enshrined in the treaties under which Warsaw and Budapest joined the EU. The EC, encouraged by the European Parliament, may soon trigger the \"conditionality mechanism' that would allow the withholding of budget payments and recovery funds (tens of billions of euros) until the democratic standards are met. Poland and Hungary are challenging the legality of the \"conditionality mechanism\" before the European Court of Justice.<blockquote>在英国的鼓励下，欧盟的扩大战略是扩大，而不是深化。没有什么比成功更失败了，英国战略的代价是逐渐转向合格多数投票，这意味着伦敦否决权的削弱。随着英国制衡的消失和问题的变化，重点似乎更多地放在深化或加强共同价值观上。波兰和匈牙利政府与欧共体以及对方的许多个别成员之间酝酿了一段时间的危机。波兰政府正在挑战欧盟规则的首要地位，特别是关于司法独立的规则。欧洲法律的首要地位体现在华沙和布达佩斯加入欧盟的条约中。在欧洲议会的鼓励下，欧盟委员会可能很快会触发“条件机制”，允许扣留预算支付和恢复资金（数百亿欧元），直到达到民主标准。波兰和匈牙利正在欧洲法院质疑“条件机制”的合法性。</blockquote> The record high in Bitcoin and the launching of an ETF based on Bitcoin futures capture imaginations, while there has been a development in France that may have just as much if not greater significance.Using an IBM-based system and in partnership with the largest financial market institutions, including Euroclear, the Banque de France has been engaged in a ten-month experiment with a digital currency and blockchain. It has been successfully tested in issuing new bonds, the conduct of repos, paying coupons, and facilitating redemptions. The Federal Reserve's report on its investigation on a digital currency is expected any day. If not before, perhaps Chair Powell will be asked about it at the next press conference following the FOMC meeting on November 3. Meanwhile, Bloomberg recently told the story of the Chinese city of Zhengzhou, an early adaptor of the internet payment networks. When a recent flood led to a power outage, including the internet, people could not contact first responders, communicate with family/friends, or access their (digital) money. Of note, the report mentions some resort to barter, but no mention of gold.<blockquote>比特币的历史新高和基于比特币期货的 ETF 的推出激发了人们的想象力，而法国的发展可能具有同样的意义，甚至更大的意义。法兰西银行使用基于IBM的系统，并与包括Euroclear在内的最大金融市场机构合作，对数字货币和区块链进行了为期10个月的实验。它已经在发行新债券、进行回购、支付息票和促进赎回方面得到了成功的测试。美联储关于数字货币调查报告预计随时都会发布。如果不是之前，也许鲍威尔主席会在 11 月 3 日 FOMC 会议后的下一次新闻发布会上被问及此事。与此同时，彭博社最近讲述了中国城市郑州的故事，郑州是互联网支付网络的早期适配者。当最近的洪水导致停电时，包括互联网，人们无法联系急救人员，无法与家人/朋友交流，也无法访问他们的（数字）货币。值得注意的是，报告提到了一些以物易物的手段，但没有提到黄金。</blockquote> Turkey's central bank is expected to cut rates today.The market leans toward a 100 bp cut, matching last month's move. However, this would paint the central bank into a corner. The governor has shifted the focus from the headline inflation rate (19.58% in September) to the core rate (16.98%). He promised to keep real rates positive, and the one-week repo rate is at 18% now, and a 100 bp cut would exhaust its room to maneuver. If, strategically, the central bank wants to cut rates, it seems tactically a 50 bp move would be preferable. It would still deliver the rate cut the president is insisting on while stretching out the process. The lira has fallen more than 6% since last month's rate cut, which, if sustained, will further aggravate the inflation challenge.<blockquote>土耳其央行预计将于今日降息。市场倾向于下调 100 个基点，与上个月的走势一致。然而，这将把央行逼入绝境。行长已将重点从总体通胀率（9月份为19.58%）转移到核心通胀率（16.98%）。他承诺保持实际利率为正，一周回购利率目前为 18%，降息 100 个基点将耗尽其回旋余地。如果从战略上来说，央行想要降息，那么从战术上来说，降息 50 个基点似乎更可取。它仍将实现总统坚持的降息，同时延长这一过程。自上月降息以来，里拉已下跌超过6%，如果持续下去，将进一步加剧通胀挑战。</blockquote> The euro initially approached this week's high, slightly shy of $1.1670 in Asia, and was turned back.It fell below $1.1640 in early European turnover before stabilizing. It remains within the range set on Tuesday, where the low was near $1.1610. The five-day moving average crossed above the 20-day average for the first time since mid-September, but it has not signaled fresh buying. Continued consolidation seems the most likely scenario ahead of tomorrow's preliminary October PMI.For the third consecutive session, sterling hit resistance in the $1.3835 area, just before the 200-day moving average (~$1.3850).It has been pushed back to around $1.3785 in Europe. Initial support extends to about $1.3760, and a break of yesterday's lows (~$1.3740) would be a negative development.<blockquote>欧元最初接近本周高点，略低于亚洲1.1670美元，随后被回调。在欧洲早盘交易中，它跌破1.1640美元，然后企稳。它仍在周二设定的区间内，低点在1.1610美元附近。五日均线自9月中旬以来首次突破20日均线，但并未发出新买盘的信号。在明天的 10 月份初步 PMI 之前，持续盘整似乎是最有可能的情况。英镑连续第三个交易日触及 1.3835 美元区域的阻力位，就在 200 日移动平均线（约 1.3850 美元）之前。在欧洲，它已被推回1.3785美元左右。初始支撑位延伸至 1.3760 美元左右，突破昨天的低点（约 1.3740 美元）将是一个负面发展。</blockquote> America<blockquote>美国</blockquote> The US reports weekly jobless claims, and the week covers the survey period for the monthly non-farm payrolls report.Recall that weekly claims fell to the pandemic low of 293k in the week ending October 8. This week's report may be impacted by last Monday's partial holiday. The early call anticipates an almost 400k increase in October non-farm payrolls after a disappointing 194k increase in September. Today, the US also reports the Leading Economic Indicator (expected 0.4% after 0.9% in August). September existing-home sales are expected to have recovered from the previous 2% decline. The overall pace is still strong and among the best since the Great Financial Crisis. The Philadelphia Fed survey is expected to have moderated in October (25.0) from September (30.7). The Beige Book, released yesterday, downgraded growth slightly, noted the strong demand for labor, and businesses able to pass through rising costs.<blockquote>美国每周报告失业救济人数，这一周涵盖了每月非农就业报告的调查期。回想一下，在截至 10 月 8 日当周，每周申请失业救济人数跌至疫情低点 29.3 万人。本周的报告可能会受到上周一部分假期的影响。早期看涨期权预计，继9月份令人失望的19.4万人增加后，10月份非农就业人数将增加近40万人。今天，美国还公布了领先的经济指标（预计为 0.4%，8 月份为 0.9%）。9月份成屋销售预计将从之前2%的下降中恢复过来。整体步伐仍然强劲，是金融危机以来最好的。费城联储调查预计10月份（25.0）将较9月份（30.7）有所放缓。昨天发布的褐皮书小幅下调了增长评级，指出对劳动力的强劲需求，以及企业能够度过不断上升的成本。</blockquote> Canada reported a slightly higher than expected headline and core inflation yesterday.Still, the implied yield of the June 2022 BA futures eased four basis points, which seemed corrective in nature. The swaps market continues to price in about 75 bp of tightening over the next 12 months. Canada reports August retail sales tomorrow, and a recovery is expected after a 0.6% decline in July. Mexico reports its August retail sales today. They are expected to have declined (~-0.5%) for the third consecutive month.<blockquote>加拿大昨天公布的总体通胀率和核心通胀率略高于预期。尽管如此，2022 年 6 月 BA 期货的隐含收益率仍下降了 4 个基点，这似乎具有修正性。未来 12 个月，掉期市场将继续消化约 75 个基点的紧缩。加拿大将于明天公布 8 月份零售销售情况，预计在 7 月份下降 0.6% 后将出现复苏。墨西哥今天公布8月份零售销售情况。预计它们将连续第三个月下降（~-0.5%）。</blockquote> The US dollar was sold to a new four-month low against the Canadian dollar in Asia, a little below CAD1.2290.However, this appears to have exhausted the move, and the greenback quickly snapped back to CAD1.2345, where it has been consolidating for a few hours. A potential bullish hammer candlestick may be forged today, and a move above yesterday's high (almost CAD1.2370) would be a favorable development for the US dollar.The US dollar is also recovering against the Mexican peso after trading briefly through the 200-day moving average yesterday (~MXN20.1675).It has traded above yesterday's high (~MXN20.2810), and a close above there would lift the dollar's tone. Recall that since October 12, the greenback has fallen around 3.5% against the peso. Lastly, the US dollar closed at its best level against the Brazilian real since mid-April yesterday, slightly below BRL5.60. The risk-off sentiment signals further gains today. There is a $300 mln option at BRL5.6230 that expires today.<blockquote>美元兑加元在亚洲跌至四个月新低，略低于1.2290加元。然而，这似乎已经耗尽了这一走势，美元很快回升至1.2345加元，在那里它已经盘整了几个小时。今天可能会形成一个潜在的看涨锤子烛台，突破昨天的高点（几乎1.2370加元）将对美元有利。美元兑墨西哥比索在昨天短暂突破200日移动平均线（~MXN20.1675）后也在回升。它的交易价格已高于昨天的高点（~MXN20.2810），收盘价高于该高点将提振美元的基调。回想一下，自 10 月 12 日以来，美元兑比索已下跌约 3.5%。最后，美元兑巴西雷亚尔昨日收于4月中旬以来的最佳水平，略低于5.60巴西雷亚尔。避险情绪预示着今天将进一步上涨。有一个价值 3 亿美元的期权，价格为 5.6230 巴西雷亚尔，今天到期。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Markets Turn Cautious<blockquote>市场转向谨慎</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarkets Turn Cautious<blockquote>市场转向谨慎</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-21 20:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Equities are mostly lower today after the S&amp;P 500's six-day advance took it almost to its record high, while the NASDAQ's streak was halted at five sessions.</li> <li>The euro initially approached this week's high, slightly shy of $1.1670 in Asia, and was turned back.</li> <li>The US dollar was sold to a new four-month low against the Canadian dollar in Asia, a little below CAD1.2290.</li> </ul> Overview<blockquote><ul><li>在标准普尔 500 指数上涨六天几乎创下历史新高后，股市今天大多走低，而纳斯达克指数的连胜纪录在五个交易日停止。</li><li>欧元最初接近本周高点，略低于亚洲1.1670美元，随后被回调。</li><li>美元兑加元在亚洲跌至四个月新低，略低于1.2290加元。</li></ul>概述</blockquote> After a couple of sessions of taking on more risk, investors are taking a break today. Equities are mostly lower today after the S&amp;P 500's six-day advance took it almost to its record high, while the NASDAQ's streak was halted at five sessions. The Nikkei's nearly 1.8% slide paced the Asia-Pacific session, where most bourses retreated. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off about 0.15% near midday after rising approximately 0.65% over the past two sessions. US futures point to a weaker opening. The US 10-year yield is slightly softer, around 1.64%, while European yields have edged higher. The dollar is firmer against most currencies, with the Antipodeans and Norwegian krone seeing the largest losses, while the yen is the most resilient. The dollar stalled yesterday in Asia near JPY114.70 and has been trending lower to reach JPY113.90 just before European markets opened. Emerging market currencies are also under pressure today, led by the South African rand and Turkish lira. Turkey's central bank is widely expected to lower its key repo rate today. Gold is firm and near the middle of the day's range (~$1780-$1790). December WTI set a new high just shy of $84 before retreating and is now below $83. Copper is off around 2%, which, if sustained, would be the largest loss this month. Other industrial metals are also trading heavily. The CRB Index rose to new highs yesterday and is up 5% on the month, the seventh consecutive monthly rise.<blockquote>在经历了几个交易日的更多风险后，投资者今天正在休息。在标准普尔 500 指数上涨六天几乎创下历史新高后，股市今天大多走低，而纳斯达克指数的连胜纪录在五个交易日停止。亚太时段，日经指数下跌近 1.8%，大多数股市下跌。欧洲道琼斯斯托克600指数在过去两个交易日上涨约0.65%后，临近中午下跌约0.15%。美国期货预计开盘走弱。美国10年期国债收益率略软，约为1.64%，而欧洲收益率则小幅走高。美元兑大多数货币走强，安提波迪安和挪威克朗跌幅最大，而日元最具弹性。美元昨天在亚洲停滞在114.70日元附近，并在欧洲市场开盘前走低至113.90日元。以南非兰特和土耳其里拉为首的新兴市场货币今天也面临压力。人们普遍预计土耳其央行今天将下调关键回购利率。黄金坚挺，接近当天区间的中间（~1780-1790美元）。12 月份 WTI 原油创下略低于 84 美元的新高，然后回落，目前低于 83 美元。铜价下跌约 2%，如果持续下去，将是本月最大跌幅。其他工业金属也交投活跃。CRB指数昨日升至新高，本月上涨5%，连续第七个月上涨。</blockquote> Asia Pacific<blockquote>亚太地区</blockquote> Japan's weekly portfolio flows show two trends remain intact.First, Japanese investors are buying foreign bonds. The JPY1.22 trillion bought last week was the most in six months. Buying has been elevated since the end of August. Second, foreign investors are buying Japanese stocks. They bought JPY960 bln last week after JPY1.01 trillion the week before. That is the most in two weeks in two-and-a-half years. Tomorrow, Japan reports September CPI, and the core rate, which excludes fresh food, is expected to be above zero for the first time since March 2020. Separately, the flash October PMI will also be released. It has not been above the 50 boom/bust level since January 2020.<blockquote>日本的每周投资组合流动显示两个趋势保持不变。首先，日本投资者正在购买外国债券。上周买入的1.22万亿日元是六个月来最多的。自8月底以来，购买量一直在上升。第二，外国投资者正在购买日本股票。继前一周1.01万亿日元之后，他们上周购买了9600亿日元。这是两年半以来两周内最多的一次。明天，日本将公布9月份CPI，不包括生鲜食品的核心利率预计将自2020年3月以来首次高于零。另外，10月份PMI也将公布。自2020年1月以来，它从未高于50的繁荣/萧条水平。</blockquote> Evergrande has ended efforts to sell a 50.1% stake in its listed property management arm.It has renewed anxiety about a disorderly default. A few other property developers are also in trouble. News yesterday of a decline in urban house prices weighs on sentiment. Separately, SWIFT reported that the yuan accounted for 2.19% of its volume last month. It is slightly higher than the 2.15% share in August but below the high for the year set in March at almost 2.50%.<blockquote>恒大已停止出售其上市物业管理部门 50.1% 股份的努力。这再次引发了人们对无序违约的担忧。其他几家房地产开发商也陷入困境。昨天城市房价下跌的消息打压了市场情绪。另外，SWIFT 报告称，人民币占上个月交易量的 2.19%。略高于 8 月份 2.15% 的份额，但低于 3 月份创下的年内高点近 2.50%。</blockquote> The dollar's advance against the Japanese yen, which brought it to JPY114.70, stalled.It snapped a four-day rally yesterday and is off about a quarter of 1% hovering near JPY114.00. Immediate support is seen around JPY113.80. The steep trendline off the September 22 and early October lows comes in today around JPY113.25.The Australian dollar is reversing lower after reaching almost $0.7550, its highest level since early July.It has been sold to around $0.7380 in Europe. A break and close below yesterday's low (~$0.7365) would warn of a deeper correction after it has rallied more than three cents this month.The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate above expectations (CNY6.3890 vs. CNY6.3876).The central bank has stepped up its liquidity provisions for the second session. The sharp drop in money market rates (overnight repo -41 bp to 1.67% and the seven-day repo -19 bp to 2.02%) may help reinforce the signal for a lower yuan. For the first time this month, the dollar edged higher against the yuan for the second consecutive session.<blockquote>美元兑日元升值至114.70日元，但停滞不前。它昨天结束了连续四天的涨势，下跌了约四分之一1%，徘徊在114.00日元附近。直接支撑位在 JPY113.80 附近。9月22日和10月初低点的陡峭趋势线今天在113.25日元附近。澳元在达到近0.7550美元（7月初以来的最高水平）后正在反转走低。它在欧洲的售价约为 0.7380 美元。突破并收于昨天的低点（约 0.7365 美元）下方将预示着本月上涨超过 3 美分后将出现更深层次的调整。中国人民银行将美元参考汇率设定为高于预期（人民币6.3890元对人民币6.3876元）。央行加大了二期流动性拨备力度。货币市场利率的大幅下降（隔夜回购-41个基点至1.67%，七天回购-19个基点至2.02%）可能有助于强化人民币贬值的信号。美元兑人民币汇率本月首次连续第二个交易日小幅走高。</blockquote> Europe<blockquote>欧洲</blockquote> The EU enlargement strategy, encouraged by the UK, had been one of broadening, not deepening.Nothing fails like success, and the cost of the UK strategy was the gradual shift to qualified majority voting, which meant the erosion of London's veto. With the UK counterweight gone and the issues changing, the emphasis seems more on deepening or reinforcing the common values. A crisis has been brewing for some time between the Polish and Hungarian governments and the EC and many individual members on the other. Poland's government is challenging the primacy of EU rules, specifically about the independence of the judiciary. The primacy of European law is enshrined in the treaties under which Warsaw and Budapest joined the EU. The EC, encouraged by the European Parliament, may soon trigger the \"conditionality mechanism' that would allow the withholding of budget payments and recovery funds (tens of billions of euros) until the democratic standards are met. Poland and Hungary are challenging the legality of the \"conditionality mechanism\" before the European Court of Justice.<blockquote>在英国的鼓励下，欧盟的扩大战略是扩大，而不是深化。没有什么比成功更失败了，英国战略的代价是逐渐转向合格多数投票，这意味着伦敦否决权的削弱。随着英国制衡的消失和问题的变化，重点似乎更多地放在深化或加强共同价值观上。波兰和匈牙利政府与欧共体以及对方的许多个别成员之间酝酿了一段时间的危机。波兰政府正在挑战欧盟规则的首要地位，特别是关于司法独立的规则。欧洲法律的首要地位体现在华沙和布达佩斯加入欧盟的条约中。在欧洲议会的鼓励下，欧盟委员会可能很快会触发“条件机制”，允许扣留预算支付和恢复资金（数百亿欧元），直到达到民主标准。波兰和匈牙利正在欧洲法院质疑“条件机制”的合法性。</blockquote> The record high in Bitcoin and the launching of an ETF based on Bitcoin futures capture imaginations, while there has been a development in France that may have just as much if not greater significance.Using an IBM-based system and in partnership with the largest financial market institutions, including Euroclear, the Banque de France has been engaged in a ten-month experiment with a digital currency and blockchain. It has been successfully tested in issuing new bonds, the conduct of repos, paying coupons, and facilitating redemptions. The Federal Reserve's report on its investigation on a digital currency is expected any day. If not before, perhaps Chair Powell will be asked about it at the next press conference following the FOMC meeting on November 3. Meanwhile, Bloomberg recently told the story of the Chinese city of Zhengzhou, an early adaptor of the internet payment networks. When a recent flood led to a power outage, including the internet, people could not contact first responders, communicate with family/friends, or access their (digital) money. Of note, the report mentions some resort to barter, but no mention of gold.<blockquote>比特币的历史新高和基于比特币期货的 ETF 的推出激发了人们的想象力，而法国的发展可能具有同样的意义，甚至更大的意义。法兰西银行使用基于IBM的系统，并与包括Euroclear在内的最大金融市场机构合作，对数字货币和区块链进行了为期10个月的实验。它已经在发行新债券、进行回购、支付息票和促进赎回方面得到了成功的测试。美联储关于数字货币调查报告预计随时都会发布。如果不是之前，也许鲍威尔主席会在 11 月 3 日 FOMC 会议后的下一次新闻发布会上被问及此事。与此同时，彭博社最近讲述了中国城市郑州的故事，郑州是互联网支付网络的早期适配者。当最近的洪水导致停电时，包括互联网，人们无法联系急救人员，无法与家人/朋友交流，也无法访问他们的（数字）货币。值得注意的是，报告提到了一些以物易物的手段，但没有提到黄金。</blockquote> Turkey's central bank is expected to cut rates today.The market leans toward a 100 bp cut, matching last month's move. However, this would paint the central bank into a corner. The governor has shifted the focus from the headline inflation rate (19.58% in September) to the core rate (16.98%). He promised to keep real rates positive, and the one-week repo rate is at 18% now, and a 100 bp cut would exhaust its room to maneuver. If, strategically, the central bank wants to cut rates, it seems tactically a 50 bp move would be preferable. It would still deliver the rate cut the president is insisting on while stretching out the process. The lira has fallen more than 6% since last month's rate cut, which, if sustained, will further aggravate the inflation challenge.<blockquote>土耳其央行预计将于今日降息。市场倾向于下调 100 个基点，与上个月的走势一致。然而，这将把央行逼入绝境。行长已将重点从总体通胀率（9月份为19.58%）转移到核心通胀率（16.98%）。他承诺保持实际利率为正，一周回购利率目前为 18%，降息 100 个基点将耗尽其回旋余地。如果从战略上来说，央行想要降息，那么从战术上来说，降息 50 个基点似乎更可取。它仍将实现总统坚持的降息，同时延长这一过程。自上月降息以来，里拉已下跌超过6%，如果持续下去，将进一步加剧通胀挑战。</blockquote> The euro initially approached this week's high, slightly shy of $1.1670 in Asia, and was turned back.It fell below $1.1640 in early European turnover before stabilizing. It remains within the range set on Tuesday, where the low was near $1.1610. The five-day moving average crossed above the 20-day average for the first time since mid-September, but it has not signaled fresh buying. Continued consolidation seems the most likely scenario ahead of tomorrow's preliminary October PMI.For the third consecutive session, sterling hit resistance in the $1.3835 area, just before the 200-day moving average (~$1.3850).It has been pushed back to around $1.3785 in Europe. Initial support extends to about $1.3760, and a break of yesterday's lows (~$1.3740) would be a negative development.<blockquote>欧元最初接近本周高点，略低于亚洲1.1670美元，随后被回调。在欧洲早盘交易中，它跌破1.1640美元，然后企稳。它仍在周二设定的区间内，低点在1.1610美元附近。五日均线自9月中旬以来首次突破20日均线，但并未发出新买盘的信号。在明天的 10 月份初步 PMI 之前，持续盘整似乎是最有可能的情况。英镑连续第三个交易日触及 1.3835 美元区域的阻力位，就在 200 日移动平均线（约 1.3850 美元）之前。在欧洲，它已被推回1.3785美元左右。初始支撑位延伸至 1.3760 美元左右，突破昨天的低点（约 1.3740 美元）将是一个负面发展。</blockquote> America<blockquote>美国</blockquote> The US reports weekly jobless claims, and the week covers the survey period for the monthly non-farm payrolls report.Recall that weekly claims fell to the pandemic low of 293k in the week ending October 8. This week's report may be impacted by last Monday's partial holiday. The early call anticipates an almost 400k increase in October non-farm payrolls after a disappointing 194k increase in September. Today, the US also reports the Leading Economic Indicator (expected 0.4% after 0.9% in August). September existing-home sales are expected to have recovered from the previous 2% decline. The overall pace is still strong and among the best since the Great Financial Crisis. The Philadelphia Fed survey is expected to have moderated in October (25.0) from September (30.7). The Beige Book, released yesterday, downgraded growth slightly, noted the strong demand for labor, and businesses able to pass through rising costs.<blockquote>美国每周报告失业救济人数，这一周涵盖了每月非农就业报告的调查期。回想一下，在截至 10 月 8 日当周，每周申请失业救济人数跌至疫情低点 29.3 万人。本周的报告可能会受到上周一部分假期的影响。早期看涨期权预计，继9月份令人失望的19.4万人增加后，10月份非农就业人数将增加近40万人。今天，美国还公布了领先的经济指标（预计为 0.4%，8 月份为 0.9%）。9月份成屋销售预计将从之前2%的下降中恢复过来。整体步伐仍然强劲，是金融危机以来最好的。费城联储调查预计10月份（25.0）将较9月份（30.7）有所放缓。昨天发布的褐皮书小幅下调了增长评级，指出对劳动力的强劲需求，以及企业能够度过不断上升的成本。</blockquote> Canada reported a slightly higher than expected headline and core inflation yesterday.Still, the implied yield of the June 2022 BA futures eased four basis points, which seemed corrective in nature. The swaps market continues to price in about 75 bp of tightening over the next 12 months. Canada reports August retail sales tomorrow, and a recovery is expected after a 0.6% decline in July. Mexico reports its August retail sales today. They are expected to have declined (~-0.5%) for the third consecutive month.<blockquote>加拿大昨天公布的总体通胀率和核心通胀率略高于预期。尽管如此，2022 年 6 月 BA 期货的隐含收益率仍下降了 4 个基点，这似乎具有修正性。未来 12 个月，掉期市场将继续消化约 75 个基点的紧缩。加拿大将于明天公布 8 月份零售销售情况，预计在 7 月份下降 0.6% 后将出现复苏。墨西哥今天公布8月份零售销售情况。预计它们将连续第三个月下降（~-0.5%）。</blockquote> The US dollar was sold to a new four-month low against the Canadian dollar in Asia, a little below CAD1.2290.However, this appears to have exhausted the move, and the greenback quickly snapped back to CAD1.2345, where it has been consolidating for a few hours. A potential bullish hammer candlestick may be forged today, and a move above yesterday's high (almost CAD1.2370) would be a favorable development for the US dollar.The US dollar is also recovering against the Mexican peso after trading briefly through the 200-day moving average yesterday (~MXN20.1675).It has traded above yesterday's high (~MXN20.2810), and a close above there would lift the dollar's tone. Recall that since October 12, the greenback has fallen around 3.5% against the peso. Lastly, the US dollar closed at its best level against the Brazilian real since mid-April yesterday, slightly below BRL5.60. The risk-off sentiment signals further gains today. There is a $300 mln option at BRL5.6230 that expires today.<blockquote>美元兑加元在亚洲跌至四个月新低，略低于1.2290加元。然而，这似乎已经耗尽了这一走势，美元很快回升至1.2345加元，在那里它已经盘整了几个小时。今天可能会形成一个潜在的看涨锤子烛台，突破昨天的高点（几乎1.2370加元）将对美元有利。美元兑墨西哥比索在昨天短暂突破200日移动平均线（~MXN20.1675）后也在回升。它的交易价格已高于昨天的高点（~MXN20.2810），收盘价高于该高点将提振美元的基调。回想一下，自 10 月 12 日以来，美元兑比索已下跌约 3.5%。最后，美元兑巴西雷亚尔昨日收于4月中旬以来的最佳水平，略低于5.60巴西雷亚尔。避险情绪预示着今天将进一步上涨。有一个价值 3 亿美元的期权，价格为 5.6230 巴西雷亚尔，今天到期。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461020-markets-turn-cautious\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461020-markets-turn-cautious","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133668666","content_text":"Summary\n\nEquities are mostly lower today after the S&P 500's six-day advance took it almost to its record high, while the NASDAQ's streak was halted at five sessions.\nThe euro initially approached this week's high, slightly shy of $1.1670 in Asia, and was turned back.\nThe US dollar was sold to a new four-month low against the Canadian dollar in Asia, a little below CAD1.2290.\n\nOverview\nAfter a couple of sessions of taking on more risk, investors are taking a break today. Equities are mostly lower today after the S&P 500's six-day advance took it almost to its record high, while the NASDAQ's streak was halted at five sessions. The Nikkei's nearly 1.8% slide paced the Asia-Pacific session, where most bourses retreated. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off about 0.15% near midday after rising approximately 0.65% over the past two sessions. US futures point to a weaker opening. The US 10-year yield is slightly softer, around 1.64%, while European yields have edged higher. The dollar is firmer against most currencies, with the Antipodeans and Norwegian krone seeing the largest losses, while the yen is the most resilient. The dollar stalled yesterday in Asia near JPY114.70 and has been trending lower to reach JPY113.90 just before European markets opened. Emerging market currencies are also under pressure today, led by the South African rand and Turkish lira. Turkey's central bank is widely expected to lower its key repo rate today. Gold is firm and near the middle of the day's range (~$1780-$1790). December WTI set a new high just shy of $84 before retreating and is now below $83. Copper is off around 2%, which, if sustained, would be the largest loss this month. Other industrial metals are also trading heavily. The CRB Index rose to new highs yesterday and is up 5% on the month, the seventh consecutive monthly rise.\nAsia Pacific\nJapan's weekly portfolio flows show two trends remain intact.First, Japanese investors are buying foreign bonds. The JPY1.22 trillion bought last week was the most in six months. Buying has been elevated since the end of August. Second, foreign investors are buying Japanese stocks. They bought JPY960 bln last week after JPY1.01 trillion the week before. That is the most in two weeks in two-and-a-half years. Tomorrow, Japan reports September CPI, and the core rate, which excludes fresh food, is expected to be above zero for the first time since March 2020. Separately, the flash October PMI will also be released. It has not been above the 50 boom/bust level since January 2020.\nEvergrande has ended efforts to sell a 50.1% stake in its listed property management arm.It has renewed anxiety about a disorderly default. A few other property developers are also in trouble. News yesterday of a decline in urban house prices weighs on sentiment. Separately, SWIFT reported that the yuan accounted for 2.19% of its volume last month. It is slightly higher than the 2.15% share in August but below the high for the year set in March at almost 2.50%.\nThe dollar's advance against the Japanese yen, which brought it to JPY114.70, stalled.It snapped a four-day rally yesterday and is off about a quarter of 1% hovering near JPY114.00. Immediate support is seen around JPY113.80. The steep trendline off the September 22 and early October lows comes in today around JPY113.25.The Australian dollar is reversing lower after reaching almost $0.7550, its highest level since early July.It has been sold to around $0.7380 in Europe. A break and close below yesterday's low (~$0.7365) would warn of a deeper correction after it has rallied more than three cents this month.The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate above expectations (CNY6.3890 vs. CNY6.3876).The central bank has stepped up its liquidity provisions for the second session. The sharp drop in money market rates (overnight repo -41 bp to 1.67% and the seven-day repo -19 bp to 2.02%) may help reinforce the signal for a lower yuan. For the first time this month, the dollar edged higher against the yuan for the second consecutive session.\nEurope\nThe EU enlargement strategy, encouraged by the UK, had been one of broadening, not deepening.Nothing fails like success, and the cost of the UK strategy was the gradual shift to qualified majority voting, which meant the erosion of London's veto. With the UK counterweight gone and the issues changing, the emphasis seems more on deepening or reinforcing the common values. A crisis has been brewing for some time between the Polish and Hungarian governments and the EC and many individual members on the other. Poland's government is challenging the primacy of EU rules, specifically about the independence of the judiciary. The primacy of European law is enshrined in the treaties under which Warsaw and Budapest joined the EU. The EC, encouraged by the European Parliament, may soon trigger the \"conditionality mechanism' that would allow the withholding of budget payments and recovery funds (tens of billions of euros) until the democratic standards are met. Poland and Hungary are challenging the legality of the \"conditionality mechanism\" before the European Court of Justice.\nThe record high in Bitcoin and the launching of an ETF based on Bitcoin futures capture imaginations, while there has been a development in France that may have just as much if not greater significance.Using an IBM-based system and in partnership with the largest financial market institutions, including Euroclear, the Banque de France has been engaged in a ten-month experiment with a digital currency and blockchain. It has been successfully tested in issuing new bonds, the conduct of repos, paying coupons, and facilitating redemptions. The Federal Reserve's report on its investigation on a digital currency is expected any day. If not before, perhaps Chair Powell will be asked about it at the next press conference following the FOMC meeting on November 3. Meanwhile, Bloomberg recently told the story of the Chinese city of Zhengzhou, an early adaptor of the internet payment networks. When a recent flood led to a power outage, including the internet, people could not contact first responders, communicate with family/friends, or access their (digital) money. Of note, the report mentions some resort to barter, but no mention of gold.\nTurkey's central bank is expected to cut rates today.The market leans toward a 100 bp cut, matching last month's move. However, this would paint the central bank into a corner. The governor has shifted the focus from the headline inflation rate (19.58% in September) to the core rate (16.98%). He promised to keep real rates positive, and the one-week repo rate is at 18% now, and a 100 bp cut would exhaust its room to maneuver. If, strategically, the central bank wants to cut rates, it seems tactically a 50 bp move would be preferable. It would still deliver the rate cut the president is insisting on while stretching out the process. The lira has fallen more than 6% since last month's rate cut, which, if sustained, will further aggravate the inflation challenge.\nThe euro initially approached this week's high, slightly shy of $1.1670 in Asia, and was turned back.It fell below $1.1640 in early European turnover before stabilizing. It remains within the range set on Tuesday, where the low was near $1.1610. The five-day moving average crossed above the 20-day average for the first time since mid-September, but it has not signaled fresh buying. Continued consolidation seems the most likely scenario ahead of tomorrow's preliminary October PMI.For the third consecutive session, sterling hit resistance in the $1.3835 area, just before the 200-day moving average (~$1.3850).It has been pushed back to around $1.3785 in Europe. Initial support extends to about $1.3760, and a break of yesterday's lows (~$1.3740) would be a negative development.\nAmerica\nThe US reports weekly jobless claims, and the week covers the survey period for the monthly non-farm payrolls report.Recall that weekly claims fell to the pandemic low of 293k in the week ending October 8. This week's report may be impacted by last Monday's partial holiday. The early call anticipates an almost 400k increase in October non-farm payrolls after a disappointing 194k increase in September. Today, the US also reports the Leading Economic Indicator (expected 0.4% after 0.9% in August). September existing-home sales are expected to have recovered from the previous 2% decline. The overall pace is still strong and among the best since the Great Financial Crisis. The Philadelphia Fed survey is expected to have moderated in October (25.0) from September (30.7). The Beige Book, released yesterday, downgraded growth slightly, noted the strong demand for labor, and businesses able to pass through rising costs.\nCanada reported a slightly higher than expected headline and core inflation yesterday.Still, the implied yield of the June 2022 BA futures eased four basis points, which seemed corrective in nature. The swaps market continues to price in about 75 bp of tightening over the next 12 months. Canada reports August retail sales tomorrow, and a recovery is expected after a 0.6% decline in July. Mexico reports its August retail sales today. They are expected to have declined (~-0.5%) for the third consecutive month.\nThe US dollar was sold to a new four-month low against the Canadian dollar in Asia, a little below CAD1.2290.However, this appears to have exhausted the move, and the greenback quickly snapped back to CAD1.2345, where it has been consolidating for a few hours. A potential bullish hammer candlestick may be forged today, and a move above yesterday's high (almost CAD1.2370) would be a favorable development for the US dollar.The US dollar is also recovering against the Mexican peso after trading briefly through the 200-day moving average yesterday (~MXN20.1675).It has traded above yesterday's high (~MXN20.2810), and a close above there would lift the dollar's tone. Recall that since October 12, the greenback has fallen around 3.5% against the peso. Lastly, the US dollar closed at its best level against the Brazilian real since mid-April yesterday, slightly below BRL5.60. The risk-off sentiment signals further gains today. There is a $300 mln option at BRL5.6230 that expires today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2688,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/853279580"}