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2021-10-21
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The Market Is Just About To Start Its Bubble Peak Run With Parabolic Upside Potential<blockquote>市场即将开始泡沫峰值运行，具有抛物线上涨潜力</blockquote>
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I, too, find it challenging to accept market-wide share price potential.</li> <li>However, the point is not to be right, but to accept things as they are.</li> <li>Any warning about a bubble is invalid if all market participants assume that it could crash at any moment.</li> <li>If the fear of missing out (FOMO) prevails, we could even face a further parabolic rise in the equity markets.</li> </ul> <b>So many bubble signs, but one indicator is missing</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们已经达到甚至打破了许多倍数的历史可比水平。</li><li>在这方面，警告泡沫和崩盘风险的人越来越多。我也发现接受全市场股价潜力具有挑战性。</li><li>然而，重点不是正确，而是接受事物的本来面目。</li><li>如果所有市场参与者都认为泡沫随时可能崩溃，那么任何关于泡沫的警告都是无效的。</li><li>如果对错过（FOMO）的恐惧盛行，我们甚至可能面临股市进一步抛物线上涨。</li></ul><b>这么多泡沫迹象，却少了一个指标</b></blockquote></p><p> Extreme debt, high margin, and high valuations combined with low yields contain all the ingredients for a crash. The rise in margin debt has been a cause for concern for many months. For a long time now, we have reached or even torn down historically comparable limits here. Already in November of last year, we reached values corresponding to those of the years 1999 and 2008. Margin has now risen by another 30 percent or more. Total margin debt is now over $911 billion.</p><p><blockquote>极端债务、高利润率、高估值加上低收益率包含了崩盘的所有要素。几个月来，保证金债务的上升一直是令人担忧的原因。很长一段时间以来，我们已经达到甚至打破了历史上可比的极限。早在去年11月，我们就达到了与1999年和2008年相对应的数值。利润率现在又上升了30%或更多。保证金债务总额目前超过9110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0acff5a296f6de44e7045505ebdef87\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Data byYCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> Even measured by GDP, margin debt was recently 4 percent, almost 50 percent higher than in 2000 and 2008. Many bulls then point out that margin debt measured by the S&P 500 market cap is not historically very high. That may be true, but it is nonetheless a fallacy since, in a bubble scenario, the market cap of the S&P 500 automatically rises as well. If we take a closer look, we see that the margin debt/market cap ratio is on par with the dot.com bubble.</p><p><blockquote>即使以GDP衡量，边际债务最近也为4%，比2000年和2008年高出近50%。许多多头随后指出，以标普500市值衡量的保证金债务在历史上并不是很高。这可能是真的，但这仍然是一个谬论，因为在泡沫情况下，标普500的市值也会自动上升。如果我们仔细观察，我们会发现保证金债务/市值比率与互联网泡沫相当。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f52ff1c9a18b2a694e2c8635b634b85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"335\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> I have often written about this setting (here,here, andhere)and thus fundamentally take a somewhat bearish stance. Nevertheless, I am not alone in this. Everywhere we see voices warning against exaggeration and overheating. The problem, however, is that this does not give us the setting that is necessary for a bubble: FOMO. Currently, we are in a limbo where bulls and bears are pretty evenly matched. However, the lack of FOMO could be overcome in the coming months and quarters. If we take such indicators as a basis for a forecast, we could see another real rally in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>我经常写关于这种情况的文章（这里、这里和这里），因此从根本上采取了某种看跌的立场。然而，我并不孤单。我们到处都能看到警告不要夸大和过热的声音。然而，问题是，这并没有给我们泡沫所必需的背景：FOMO。目前，我们正处于多头和空头势均力敌的边缘。然而，FOMO的缺乏可能会在未来几个月和几个季度得到克服。如果我们将这些指标作为预测的基础，我们可能会在短期内看到另一次真正的反弹。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Huge lack of FOMO</b></p><p><blockquote><b>极度缺乏FOMO</b></blockquote></p><p> Any warning about a bubble is invalid if all market participants assume that it could crash at any moment. Instead, a bubble is characterized bynarratives of greed, euphoria, and optimism. Currently, we do not see such a sentiment. For example, the number of bullish investors is below 40 percent. In contrast, 30 percent of investors are bearish.</p><p><blockquote>如果所有市场参与者都认为泡沫随时可能崩溃，那么任何关于泡沫的警告都是无效的。相反，泡沫的特征是贪婪、兴奋和乐观。目前，我们没有看到这样的情绪。例如，看涨投资者的数量低于40%。相比之下，30%的投资者看跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e2b986b957860224306a033a7e36197\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"482\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Compared with August, we see a significant deterioration in sentiment here. InAugust, the share of bearish investors was just 24 percent, while the share of bullish investors remained roughly the same.</p><p><blockquote>与8月份相比，我们看到这里的情绪明显恶化。8月份，看跌投资者的比例仅为24%，而看涨投资者的比例大致保持不变。</blockquote></p><p> A high share of pessimism indicates that a good buying moment has come. So based on this sentiment indicator, now is a better time to buy stocks than a few months ago.</p><p><blockquote>悲观情绪的高比例表明良好的买入时机已经到来。所以根据这个情绪指标，现在是比几个月前更好的购买股票的时机。</blockquote></p><p> That we are far from historical euphoria is also shown by a comparison with 2000, when the share of bullish investors was over 70 percent, almost twice as high as at present.</p><p><blockquote>与2000年的比较也表明，我们离历史上的兴奋还很远，当时看涨投资者的比例超过70%，几乎是目前的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbe55f2e0036a9a0cc6af8620707919\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Total money fund assets also underscore the rather passive stance of investors. Total assets currently stand at$4.52 trillion, only slightly below thelevel of the COVID-19 crash in 2020. Why is this important? As I explained in my previous article, money market funds are...</p><p><blockquote>货币基金总资产也凸显了投资者相当被动的立场。目前总资产为4.52万亿美元，仅略低于2020年COVID-19崩盘时的水平。为什么这很重要？正如我在上一篇文章中解释的，货币市场基金是...</blockquote></p><p> ...managed with the aim of maintaining a highly stable asset base through liquid investments. These include cash securities and bonds with a term of less than 12 months. Although private retailers also have access, they are only a minority. The money market fund market is dominated by institutional investors, i.e. banks, insurance companies, and governments. Therefore, total money fund assets show us how much cash is on the sidelines and available for short periods. In addition, we see that institutional investors in particular (colloquially referred to as \"smart money\") are still hesitant to act and hold a large portion of cash or liquid assets.</p><p><blockquote>…管理的目的是通过流动性投资维持高度稳定的资产基础。其中包括现金证券和期限少于12个月的债券。虽然私营零售商也可以进入，但他们只是少数。货币市场基金市场由机构投资者主导，即银行、保险公司和政府。因此，货币基金总资产向我们展示了有多少现金处于观望状态并可供短期使用。此外，我们看到，尤其是机构投资者（俗称“聪明资金”）仍然犹豫不决，并持有很大一部分现金或流动资产。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Enough substance to fuel FOMO</b></p><p><blockquote><b>足以助长FOMO的物质</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> So, on the one hand, we have a lack of euphoria and a rather pessimistic mood among investors. Likewise, we see that investors have a lot of short-term liquidity. In addition, we should keep an eye on the bond market. Here, too, investors are currently withdrawing money ona massive scale.</p><p><blockquote>因此，一方面，投资者缺乏兴奋感，情绪相当悲观。同样，我们看到投资者拥有大量的短期流动性。此外，要密切关注债券市场。在这里，投资者目前也在大规模撤资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e77526487456626eb0328ba81aa8e639\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Data byYCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> The reason for the sell-off is the fear of rising interest rates. Rising interest rates mean higher interest coupons for upcoming new bonds. These higher interest coupons are matched by the yields on bonds already issued. As a result, the price falls. According to a Bloomberg article:</p><p><blockquote>抛售的原因是担心利率上升。利率上升意味着即将发行的新债券的息票更高。这些较高的息票与已发行债券的收益率相匹配。结果，价格下跌。根据彭博社的一篇文章：</blockquote></p><p> The BofA [Global Fund Manager] survey finds that more asset allocators are underweight bonds than at any time since they started asking the question some 20 years ago: <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45c333ab53e7cbde78b07b7e09a43b86\" tg-width=\"458\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> So, there is still a lot of money on the sidelines, and capital is being pulled out of other asset classes.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行[全球基金经理]调查发现，自大约20年前开始提出这个问题以来，持有跑输大盘债券的资产配置者比任何时候都多：因此，仍有大量资金在观望，资本正在从其他资产类别中撤出。</blockquote></p><p> The signs are good that this money will flow into the equity markets and trigger FOMO among investors. It could be a mixture of a wait-and-see attitude by central banks and a self-fulfilling prophecy that pushes more and more investors into equities. This would continue a trend that has been ongoing since the financial crisis. Since 2009, the share ratio among investors has risen steadily and is now at 2000 levels.</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明，这些资金将流入股市，并引发投资者的FOMO。这可能是央行的观望态度和推动越来越多投资者进入股市的自我实现预言的混合体。这将延续自金融危机以来一直持续的趋势。自2009年以来，投资者的股比稳步上升，目前已达到2000年的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31ea83bed5c5e15504045b37f77aea31\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"411\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In this respect, a new narrative is already making the rounds: TINA RIF = There Is No Alternative - Resistance Is Futile. If this narrative prevails, then this justifies a violent parabolic upswing in short to medium term. Because in the end, everyone wants to take the last dance at the party and rushes onto the dance floor. Then we have FOMO's self-fulfilling prophecy and will inevitably see rising stock prices.</p><p><blockquote>在这方面，一种新的叙事已经在流传：蒂娜·里夫=别无选择——抵抗是徒劳的。如果这种说法占上风，那么这就证明了中短期内剧烈抛物线上涨的合理性。因为最后，每个人都想在派对上跳最后一支舞，冲上舞池。然后我们就有了FOMO的自我实现预言，将不可避免地看到股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>We might have seen the start of the final rally</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们可能已经看到了最后反弹的开始</b></blockquote></p><p> We also see an interesting formation in the chart of the S&P 500, which indicates a strong movement towards the north. It seems that we have seen a picture-perfect bear trap with the price losses of recent weeks. Next to it, we see a bullish W formation. For chartists, these are two relatively bullish indicators. So it might be that we have already seen the start of the final rally in this impressive long-term bull market.</p><p><blockquote>我们还在标普500的图表中看到了一个有趣的形成，它表明了向北的强烈运动。随着最近几周的价格下跌，我们似乎已经看到了一个完美的熊市陷阱。在它旁边，我们看到了看涨的W形态。对于图表分析师来说，这是两个相对看涨的指标。因此，我们可能已经看到了这个令人印象深刻的长期牛市最后反弹的开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ee68f5a38b94660195a35a81fdc052\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Trading View</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：交易观点</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Even if it is difficult for me to accept market-wide price potential from a fundamental point of view, it is not about being right but about accepting things as they are. It is clear that we lack investment alternatives and that equity is an easily accessible asset class for investors. Conversely, we cannot speak of a bubble when sentiment is so balanced or even trending bearish. However, if the markets overcome the lack of FOMO, we could well see a further rise in equity prices in the coming months. It is clear that not everyone is part of the party, and we all know that the party is at its best when everyone is wildly escalating on the dance floor like there is no tomorrow. For now, investors should therefore be cautious about actively going short.</p><p><blockquote>即使从基本面的角度来看，我很难接受全市场的价格潜力，但这不是正确的问题，而是接受事物的本来面目。很明显，我们缺乏投资选择，而股票是投资者容易获得的资产类别。相反，当情绪如此平衡甚至趋势看跌时，我们不能说是泡沫。然而，如果市场克服了FOMO的不足，我们很可能会在未来几个月看到股价进一步上涨。很明显，不是每个人都是派对的一部分，我们都知道，当每个人都在舞池里疯狂升级，就像没有明天一样，派对处于最佳状态。因此，就目前而言，投资者应对积极做空持谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Market Is Just About To Start Its Bubble Peak Run With Parabolic Upside Potential<blockquote>市场即将开始泡沫峰值运行，具有抛物线上涨潜力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Market Is Just About To Start Its Bubble Peak Run With Parabolic Upside Potential<blockquote>市场即将开始泡沫峰值运行，具有抛物线上涨潜力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-21 19:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>We have already reached or even torn down historically comparable levels for many multiples.</li> <li>In this respect, the number of those warning of a bubble and the risk of a crash is increasing. I, too, find it challenging to accept market-wide share price potential.</li> <li>However, the point is not to be right, but to accept things as they are.</li> <li>Any warning about a bubble is invalid if all market participants assume that it could crash at any moment.</li> <li>If the fear of missing out (FOMO) prevails, we could even face a further parabolic rise in the equity markets.</li> </ul> <b>So many bubble signs, but one indicator is missing</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们已经达到甚至打破了许多倍数的历史可比水平。</li><li>在这方面，警告泡沫和崩盘风险的人越来越多。我也发现接受全市场股价潜力具有挑战性。</li><li>然而，重点不是正确，而是接受事物的本来面目。</li><li>如果所有市场参与者都认为泡沫随时可能崩溃，那么任何关于泡沫的警告都是无效的。</li><li>如果对错过（FOMO）的恐惧盛行，我们甚至可能面临股市进一步抛物线上涨。</li></ul><b>这么多泡沫迹象，却少了一个指标</b></blockquote></p><p> Extreme debt, high margin, and high valuations combined with low yields contain all the ingredients for a crash. The rise in margin debt has been a cause for concern for many months. For a long time now, we have reached or even torn down historically comparable limits here. Already in November of last year, we reached values corresponding to those of the years 1999 and 2008. Margin has now risen by another 30 percent or more. Total margin debt is now over $911 billion.</p><p><blockquote>极端债务、高利润率、高估值加上低收益率包含了崩盘的所有要素。几个月来，保证金债务的上升一直是令人担忧的原因。很长一段时间以来，我们已经达到甚至打破了历史上可比的极限。早在去年11月，我们就达到了与1999年和2008年相对应的数值。利润率现在又上升了30%或更多。保证金债务总额目前超过9110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0acff5a296f6de44e7045505ebdef87\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Data byYCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> Even measured by GDP, margin debt was recently 4 percent, almost 50 percent higher than in 2000 and 2008. Many bulls then point out that margin debt measured by the S&P 500 market cap is not historically very high. That may be true, but it is nonetheless a fallacy since, in a bubble scenario, the market cap of the S&P 500 automatically rises as well. If we take a closer look, we see that the margin debt/market cap ratio is on par with the dot.com bubble.</p><p><blockquote>即使以GDP衡量，边际债务最近也为4%，比2000年和2008年高出近50%。许多多头随后指出，以标普500市值衡量的保证金债务在历史上并不是很高。这可能是真的，但这仍然是一个谬论，因为在泡沫情况下，标普500的市值也会自动上升。如果我们仔细观察，我们会发现保证金债务/市值比率与互联网泡沫相当。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f52ff1c9a18b2a694e2c8635b634b85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"335\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> I have often written about this setting (here,here, andhere)and thus fundamentally take a somewhat bearish stance. Nevertheless, I am not alone in this. Everywhere we see voices warning against exaggeration and overheating. The problem, however, is that this does not give us the setting that is necessary for a bubble: FOMO. Currently, we are in a limbo where bulls and bears are pretty evenly matched. However, the lack of FOMO could be overcome in the coming months and quarters. If we take such indicators as a basis for a forecast, we could see another real rally in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>我经常写关于这种情况的文章（这里、这里和这里），因此从根本上采取了某种看跌的立场。然而，我并不孤单。我们到处都能看到警告不要夸大和过热的声音。然而，问题是，这并没有给我们泡沫所必需的背景：FOMO。目前，我们正处于多头和空头势均力敌的边缘。然而，FOMO的缺乏可能会在未来几个月和几个季度得到克服。如果我们将这些指标作为预测的基础，我们可能会在短期内看到另一次真正的反弹。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Huge lack of FOMO</b></p><p><blockquote><b>极度缺乏FOMO</b></blockquote></p><p> Any warning about a bubble is invalid if all market participants assume that it could crash at any moment. Instead, a bubble is characterized bynarratives of greed, euphoria, and optimism. Currently, we do not see such a sentiment. For example, the number of bullish investors is below 40 percent. In contrast, 30 percent of investors are bearish.</p><p><blockquote>如果所有市场参与者都认为泡沫随时可能崩溃，那么任何关于泡沫的警告都是无效的。相反，泡沫的特征是贪婪、兴奋和乐观。目前，我们没有看到这样的情绪。例如，看涨投资者的数量低于40%。相比之下，30%的投资者看跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e2b986b957860224306a033a7e36197\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"482\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Compared with August, we see a significant deterioration in sentiment here. InAugust, the share of bearish investors was just 24 percent, while the share of bullish investors remained roughly the same.</p><p><blockquote>与8月份相比，我们看到这里的情绪明显恶化。8月份，看跌投资者的比例仅为24%，而看涨投资者的比例大致保持不变。</blockquote></p><p> A high share of pessimism indicates that a good buying moment has come. So based on this sentiment indicator, now is a better time to buy stocks than a few months ago.</p><p><blockquote>悲观情绪的高比例表明良好的买入时机已经到来。所以根据这个情绪指标，现在是比几个月前更好的购买股票的时机。</blockquote></p><p> That we are far from historical euphoria is also shown by a comparison with 2000, when the share of bullish investors was over 70 percent, almost twice as high as at present.</p><p><blockquote>与2000年的比较也表明，我们离历史上的兴奋还很远，当时看涨投资者的比例超过70%，几乎是目前的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbe55f2e0036a9a0cc6af8620707919\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Total money fund assets also underscore the rather passive stance of investors. Total assets currently stand at$4.52 trillion, only slightly below thelevel of the COVID-19 crash in 2020. Why is this important? As I explained in my previous article, money market funds are...</p><p><blockquote>货币基金总资产也凸显了投资者相当被动的立场。目前总资产为4.52万亿美元，仅略低于2020年COVID-19崩盘时的水平。为什么这很重要？正如我在上一篇文章中解释的，货币市场基金是...</blockquote></p><p> ...managed with the aim of maintaining a highly stable asset base through liquid investments. These include cash securities and bonds with a term of less than 12 months. Although private retailers also have access, they are only a minority. The money market fund market is dominated by institutional investors, i.e. banks, insurance companies, and governments. Therefore, total money fund assets show us how much cash is on the sidelines and available for short periods. In addition, we see that institutional investors in particular (colloquially referred to as \"smart money\") are still hesitant to act and hold a large portion of cash or liquid assets.</p><p><blockquote>…管理的目的是通过流动性投资维持高度稳定的资产基础。其中包括现金证券和期限少于12个月的债券。虽然私营零售商也可以进入，但他们只是少数。货币市场基金市场由机构投资者主导，即银行、保险公司和政府。因此，货币基金总资产向我们展示了有多少现金处于观望状态并可供短期使用。此外，我们看到，尤其是机构投资者（俗称“聪明资金”）仍然犹豫不决，并持有很大一部分现金或流动资产。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Enough substance to fuel FOMO</b></p><p><blockquote><b>足以助长FOMO的物质</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> So, on the one hand, we have a lack of euphoria and a rather pessimistic mood among investors. Likewise, we see that investors have a lot of short-term liquidity. In addition, we should keep an eye on the bond market. Here, too, investors are currently withdrawing money ona massive scale.</p><p><blockquote>因此，一方面，投资者缺乏兴奋感，情绪相当悲观。同样，我们看到投资者拥有大量的短期流动性。此外，要密切关注债券市场。在这里，投资者目前也在大规模撤资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e77526487456626eb0328ba81aa8e639\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Data byYCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> The reason for the sell-off is the fear of rising interest rates. Rising interest rates mean higher interest coupons for upcoming new bonds. These higher interest coupons are matched by the yields on bonds already issued. As a result, the price falls. According to a Bloomberg article:</p><p><blockquote>抛售的原因是担心利率上升。利率上升意味着即将发行的新债券的息票更高。这些较高的息票与已发行债券的收益率相匹配。结果，价格下跌。根据彭博社的一篇文章：</blockquote></p><p> The BofA [Global Fund Manager] survey finds that more asset allocators are underweight bonds than at any time since they started asking the question some 20 years ago: <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45c333ab53e7cbde78b07b7e09a43b86\" tg-width=\"458\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> So, there is still a lot of money on the sidelines, and capital is being pulled out of other asset classes.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行[全球基金经理]调查发现，自大约20年前开始提出这个问题以来，持有跑输大盘债券的资产配置者比任何时候都多：因此，仍有大量资金在观望，资本正在从其他资产类别中撤出。</blockquote></p><p> The signs are good that this money will flow into the equity markets and trigger FOMO among investors. It could be a mixture of a wait-and-see attitude by central banks and a self-fulfilling prophecy that pushes more and more investors into equities. This would continue a trend that has been ongoing since the financial crisis. Since 2009, the share ratio among investors has risen steadily and is now at 2000 levels.</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明，这些资金将流入股市，并引发投资者的FOMO。这可能是央行的观望态度和推动越来越多投资者进入股市的自我实现预言的混合体。这将延续自金融危机以来一直持续的趋势。自2009年以来，投资者的股比稳步上升，目前已达到2000年的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31ea83bed5c5e15504045b37f77aea31\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"411\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In this respect, a new narrative is already making the rounds: TINA RIF = There Is No Alternative - Resistance Is Futile. If this narrative prevails, then this justifies a violent parabolic upswing in short to medium term. Because in the end, everyone wants to take the last dance at the party and rushes onto the dance floor. Then we have FOMO's self-fulfilling prophecy and will inevitably see rising stock prices.</p><p><blockquote>在这方面，一种新的叙事已经在流传：蒂娜·里夫=别无选择——抵抗是徒劳的。如果这种说法占上风，那么这就证明了中短期内剧烈抛物线上涨的合理性。因为最后，每个人都想在派对上跳最后一支舞，冲上舞池。然后我们就有了FOMO的自我实现预言，将不可避免地看到股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>We might have seen the start of the final rally</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们可能已经看到了最后反弹的开始</b></blockquote></p><p> We also see an interesting formation in the chart of the S&P 500, which indicates a strong movement towards the north. It seems that we have seen a picture-perfect bear trap with the price losses of recent weeks. Next to it, we see a bullish W formation. For chartists, these are two relatively bullish indicators. So it might be that we have already seen the start of the final rally in this impressive long-term bull market.</p><p><blockquote>我们还在标普500的图表中看到了一个有趣的形成，它表明了向北的强烈运动。随着最近几周的价格下跌，我们似乎已经看到了一个完美的熊市陷阱。在它旁边，我们看到了看涨的W形态。对于图表分析师来说，这是两个相对看涨的指标。因此，我们可能已经看到了这个令人印象深刻的长期牛市最后反弹的开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ee68f5a38b94660195a35a81fdc052\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Trading View</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：交易观点</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Even if it is difficult for me to accept market-wide price potential from a fundamental point of view, it is not about being right but about accepting things as they are. It is clear that we lack investment alternatives and that equity is an easily accessible asset class for investors. Conversely, we cannot speak of a bubble when sentiment is so balanced or even trending bearish. However, if the markets overcome the lack of FOMO, we could well see a further rise in equity prices in the coming months. It is clear that not everyone is part of the party, and we all know that the party is at its best when everyone is wildly escalating on the dance floor like there is no tomorrow. For now, investors should therefore be cautious about actively going short.</p><p><blockquote>即使从基本面的角度来看，我很难接受全市场的价格潜力，但这不是正确的问题，而是接受事物的本来面目。很明显，我们缺乏投资选择，而股票是投资者容易获得的资产类别。相反，当情绪如此平衡甚至趋势看跌时，我们不能说是泡沫。然而，如果市场克服了FOMO的不足，我们很可能会在未来几个月看到股价进一步上涨。很明显，不是每个人都是派对的一部分，我们都知道，当每个人都在舞池里疯狂升级，就像没有明天一样，派对处于最佳状态。因此，就目前而言，投资者应对积极做空持谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461007-market-to-start-bubble-peak-run-parabolic-upside-potential\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461007-market-to-start-bubble-peak-run-parabolic-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130678563","content_text":"Summary\n\nWe have already reached or even torn down historically comparable levels for many multiples.\nIn this respect, the number of those warning of a bubble and the risk of a crash is increasing. I, too, find it challenging to accept market-wide share price potential.\nHowever, the point is not to be right, but to accept things as they are.\nAny warning about a bubble is invalid if all market participants assume that it could crash at any moment.\nIf the fear of missing out (FOMO) prevails, we could even face a further parabolic rise in the equity markets.\n\nSo many bubble signs, but one indicator is missing\nExtreme debt, high margin, and high valuations combined with low yields contain all the ingredients for a crash. The rise in margin debt has been a cause for concern for many months. For a long time now, we have reached or even torn down historically comparable limits here. Already in November of last year, we reached values corresponding to those of the years 1999 and 2008. Margin has now risen by another 30 percent or more. Total margin debt is now over $911 billion.\n\nData byYCharts\nEven measured by GDP, margin debt was recently 4 percent, almost 50 percent higher than in 2000 and 2008. Many bulls then point out that margin debt measured by the S&P 500 market cap is not historically very high. That may be true, but it is nonetheless a fallacy since, in a bubble scenario, the market cap of the S&P 500 automatically rises as well. If we take a closer look, we see that the margin debt/market cap ratio is on par with the dot.com bubble.\n\nI have often written about this setting (here,here, andhere)and thus fundamentally take a somewhat bearish stance. Nevertheless, I am not alone in this. Everywhere we see voices warning against exaggeration and overheating. The problem, however, is that this does not give us the setting that is necessary for a bubble: FOMO. Currently, we are in a limbo where bulls and bears are pretty evenly matched. However, the lack of FOMO could be overcome in the coming months and quarters. If we take such indicators as a basis for a forecast, we could see another real rally in the short term.\nHuge lack of FOMO\nAny warning about a bubble is invalid if all market participants assume that it could crash at any moment. Instead, a bubble is characterized bynarratives of greed, euphoria, and optimism. Currently, we do not see such a sentiment. For example, the number of bullish investors is below 40 percent. In contrast, 30 percent of investors are bearish.\n\nCompared with August, we see a significant deterioration in sentiment here. InAugust, the share of bearish investors was just 24 percent, while the share of bullish investors remained roughly the same.\nA high share of pessimism indicates that a good buying moment has come. So based on this sentiment indicator, now is a better time to buy stocks than a few months ago.\nThat we are far from historical euphoria is also shown by a comparison with 2000, when the share of bullish investors was over 70 percent, almost twice as high as at present.\n\nTotal money fund assets also underscore the rather passive stance of investors. Total assets currently stand at$4.52 trillion, only slightly below thelevel of the COVID-19 crash in 2020. Why is this important? As I explained in my previous article, money market funds are...\n\n ...managed with the aim of maintaining a highly stable asset base through liquid investments. These include cash securities and bonds with a term of less than 12 months. Although private retailers also have access, they are only a minority. The money market fund market is dominated by institutional investors, i.e. banks, insurance companies, and governments.\n\nTherefore, total money fund assets show us how much cash is on the sidelines and available for short periods. In addition, we see that institutional investors in particular (colloquially referred to as \"smart money\") are still hesitant to act and hold a large portion of cash or liquid assets.\nEnough substance to fuel FOMO\nSo, on the one hand, we have a lack of euphoria and a rather pessimistic mood among investors. Likewise, we see that investors have a lot of short-term liquidity. In addition, we should keep an eye on the bond market. Here, too, investors are currently withdrawing money ona massive scale.\n\nData byYCharts\nThe reason for the sell-off is the fear of rising interest rates. Rising interest rates mean higher interest coupons for upcoming new bonds. These higher interest coupons are matched by the yields on bonds already issued. As a result, the price falls. According to a Bloomberg article:\n\n The BofA [Global Fund Manager] survey finds that more asset allocators are underweight bonds than at any time since they started asking the question some 20 years ago:\n\n\n\n\nSo, there is still a lot of money on the sidelines, and capital is being pulled out of other asset classes.\nThe signs are good that this money will flow into the equity markets and trigger FOMO among investors. It could be a mixture of a wait-and-see attitude by central banks and a self-fulfilling prophecy that pushes more and more investors into equities. This would continue a trend that has been ongoing since the financial crisis. Since 2009, the share ratio among investors has risen steadily and is now at 2000 levels.\n\nIn this respect, a new narrative is already making the rounds: TINA RIF = There Is No Alternative - Resistance Is Futile. If this narrative prevails, then this justifies a violent parabolic upswing in short to medium term. Because in the end, everyone wants to take the last dance at the party and rushes onto the dance floor. Then we have FOMO's self-fulfilling prophecy and will inevitably see rising stock prices.\nWe might have seen the start of the final rally\nWe also see an interesting formation in the chart of the S&P 500, which indicates a strong movement towards the north. It seems that we have seen a picture-perfect bear trap with the price losses of recent weeks. Next to it, we see a bullish W formation. For chartists, these are two relatively bullish indicators. So it might be that we have already seen the start of the final rally in this impressive long-term bull market.\n\nSource: Trading View\nConclusion\nEven if it is difficult for me to accept market-wide price potential from a fundamental point of view, it is not about being right but about accepting things as they are. It is clear that we lack investment alternatives and that equity is an easily accessible asset class for investors. Conversely, we cannot speak of a bubble when sentiment is so balanced or even trending bearish. However, if the markets overcome the lack of FOMO, we could well see a further rise in equity prices in the coming months. It is clear that not everyone is part of the party, and we all know that the party is at its best when everyone is wildly escalating on the dance floor like there is no tomorrow. For now, investors should therefore be cautious about actively going short.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":773,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":17,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/853224428"}
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