ALi_BaBa
2021-10-27
Power
Is Apple A Buy, Sell, Or Hold Before Q4 Earnings?<blockquote>在第四季度财报公布之前，苹果是买入、卖出还是持有？</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":852773816,"tweetId":"852773816","gmtCreate":1635307649639,"gmtModify":1635307649765,"author":{"id":3564105303063302,"idStr":"3564105303063302","authorId":3564105303063302,"authorIdStr":"3564105303063302","name":"ALi_BaBa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d89722c800111c9c885624fce940701f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":18,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Power</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Power</p></body></html>","text":"Power","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852773816","repostId":1143606145,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143606145","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635305063,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1143606145?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-27 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple A Buy, Sell, Or Hold Before Q4 Earnings?<blockquote>在第四季度财报公布之前，苹果是买入、卖出还是持有？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143606145","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple reports Q4 FY 2021 earnings on Thursday, October 28th.\nKey questions: whether the ong","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Apple reports Q4 FY 2021 earnings on Thursday, October 28th.</li> <li>Key questions: whether the ongoing supply chain chaos will snarl Apple's holiday aspirations–and whether demand can keep up with stimulus continuing to wind down.</li> <li>Chip shortages and shipping delays are the big wildcards–Apple's outlook will have implications not only for Apple–but for the US economy at large.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b296e3cf2839015829d0d24e27afb613\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1023\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>felixmizioznikov/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果将于 10 月 28 日星期四公布 2021 财年第四季度收益。</li><li>关键问题：持续的供应链混乱是否会扰乱苹果的假期愿望，以及需求是否能跟上刺激措施的持续退出。</li><li>芯片短缺和运输延迟是最大的未知数——苹果的前景不仅会对苹果产生影响，还会对整个美国经济产生影响。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>felixmizioznikov/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Apple Stock Expected to Go Up On Earnings?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股票预计会随着盈利而上涨吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Earnings season hits its peak with Apple (AAPL) reporting earnings after the bell on Thursday, October 28th. Traders have been buying Apple stock after its September correction, but earnings will decide the tug-of-war between Apple bulls and Apple bears.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果 (AAPL) 于 10 月 28 日星期四盘后公布收益，财报季达到顶峰。苹果股票在 9 月份回调后一直在买入，但盈利将决定苹果多头和苹果空头之间的拉锯战。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75383021ae523c74b5fd4b0902352205\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Key issues on deck:</p><p><blockquote>甲板上的关键问题：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Will the global supply chain crisis finally drag Apple down with it? The 2020 holiday season (Apple's FY '21) was the best holiday season ever for Apple, with demand boosted by stimulus and limited issues with supply. 2021 looks ominous, with now over 100 ships waiting to unload in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, while the Chinese energy crisis imposes blackouts on some Apple suppliers. I'm not seeing many signs of progress with inflation and shortages, especially with the price of oil rising higher every single week.</li> <li>Will consumer demand in the United States and Europe remain strong with stimulus unwinding? With multiple rounds of $1,200 stimulus checks and consumers stuck at home, iPhone revenue hit a record after the pandemic. Now, with $4 gas in many areas of the US, rising food prices, and stimulus spent and gone, those prior year comps could start to look hard to match. This said–I'd expect iPhone demand to remain relatively strong–which only matters if Apple can supply it.</li> <li>As Apple's valuation has risen, services growth is the key to Apple's business growing into its nearly $2.5 trillion valuation. Investors are sure to watch for indications to services can keep growing at a rapid rate, and are likely to be wary of any indications that competition and/or antitrust action could slow growth.</li> </ul> <b>Is Apple Impacted By The Supply Chain Crisis?</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>全球供应链危机最终会拖累苹果吗？2020 年假日季（苹果 21 财年）是苹果有史以来最好的假日季，刺激措施提振了需求，但供应问题有限。2021 年看起来不祥，目前有 100 多艘船舶在洛杉矶和长滩港口等待卸货，而中国能源危机导致一些苹果供应商停电。我没有看到通货膨胀和短缺有太多进展的迹象，尤其是油价每周都在上涨。</li><li>随着刺激措施的退出，美国和欧洲的消费者需求会保持强劲吗？随着多轮1200美元的刺激支票和消费者被困在家里，iPhone的收入在大流行后创下了纪录。现在，随着美国许多地区汽油价格达到 4 美元，食品价格上涨，刺激措施耗尽并消失，前一年的业绩可能会开始难以匹配。也就是说——我预计iPhone需求将保持相对强劲——这仅取决于苹果是否能够供应。</li><li>随着苹果估值的上升，服务增长是苹果业务增长至近2.5万亿美元估值的关键。投资者肯定会关注服务业可能保持快速增长的迹象，并可能警惕任何竞争和/或反垄断行动可能减缓增长的迹象。</li></ul><b>苹果是否受到供应链危机的影响？</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is known for having a world-class supply chain. Apple's massive scale means that Apple historically tells suppliers to jump, and suppliers ask \"how high?\" As such, Apple saw far fewer disruptions early in the pandemic than companies with less logistical expertise/firepower (e.g. US automakers). As such, AAPL stock has had a banner FY 2021 and is expected to earn an all-time high of $5.58 per share for the year.</p><p><blockquote>苹果以拥有世界级的供应链而闻名。苹果的庞大规模意味着苹果历来告诉供应商跳，供应商问“有多高？”因此，与物流专业知识/火力较少的公司（例如美国汽车制造商）相比，苹果在疫情早期遭受的干扰要少得多。因此，AAPL 股票在 2021 财年表现强劲，预计全年每股收益将达到 5.58 美元的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> With the supply chain situation continuing to deteriorate in the United States, Bloomberg has recently reported that Apple's luck may be coming to an end.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国供应链形势持续恶化，彭博社近日报道称，苹果的运气可能即将走到尽头。</blockquote></p><p> From Bloomberg:</p><p><blockquote>来自彭博社：</blockquote></p><p> Apple had expected to produce 90 million new iPhone models this year, but is now telling manufacturing partners that the total will be lower because Broadcom Inc. and Texas Instruments Inc. are struggling to deliver enough components, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the situation is private. Apple is now expected to cut production by as many as 10 million iPhones due to chip shortages. Recent reporting shows that if you order an iPhone 13 today, Apple estimates that they can get it to you by early December. But with over 100 ships piled up off the coast of California, I think Apple, like many manufacturers, is being optimistic about shipping dates. Shortages will likely be worse on the East Coast due to the goods having to cross the country through jams at West Coast railyards and trucking warehouses as well.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士表示，苹果原本预计今年将生产 9000 万部新 iPhone 机型，但现在告诉制造合作伙伴，由于博通公司和德州仪器公司正在努力交付足够的零部件，总数将会更低。要求匿名，因为情况是私密的。由于芯片短缺，苹果现在预计将减产多达1000万部iPhone。最近的报道显示，如果你今天订购iPhone 13，苹果估计他们可以在12月初送到你手中。但随着 100 多艘船只堆积在加州海岸，我认为苹果和许多制造商一样，对发货日期持乐观态度。东海岸的短缺可能会更严重，因为货物必须通过西海岸铁路站场和卡车运输仓库的堵塞穿越全国。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Los Angeles Ports: 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>洛杉矶港口：2021</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01d1d18f0f9af9b0905171a36b7c30a0\" tg-width=\"1100\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Los Angeles Ports: 2019</b></p><p><blockquote><b>洛杉矶港口：2019</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e0db19f9dc28174f19d477e66de294e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: CNN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNN</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The port congestion may soon ease, but not for the reason Corporate America hopes. China is facing severe shortages of energy commodities going into winter, and they're already curtailing manufacturing, which has already impacted Apple. Morgan Stanley came out with a note that said they think Apple will gain market share from this because competitors will have even worse problems with the supply chain. I'd push back on this because Apple is a consumer discretionary company.</p><p><blockquote>港口拥堵可能很快就会缓解，但原因并非美国公司所希望的。进入冬季，中国面临着能源商品的严重短缺，他们已经在削减制造业，这已经影响了苹果。摩根士丹利发表声明称，他们认为苹果将从中获得市场份额，因为竞争对手在供应链方面将面临更严重的问题。我会反驳这一点，因为苹果是一家非必需消费品公司。</blockquote></p><p> Nobody <i>needs</i> an iPhone, so if customers wait five years to replace their phones instead of three years, Apple simply loses the revenue. This is to say nothing about shortages of other products, like the Apple Watch. It's possible Apple could use its supply chain muscle to fight through and save Christmas, but I think this situation is such a perfect storm that Apple's record earnings will probably be peaked for the cycle. If Apple sounds the alarm on inflation and the supply chain in their quarterly earnings call on Thursday, it would have implications not only for Apple, but for the global economy as well. I'd much rather own a company like Union Pacific (UNP) here than Apple, given how much of a battle the supply chain is going to be.</p><p><blockquote>没人<i>需求</i>一部 iPhone，因此如果客户等待五年而不是三年来更换手机，苹果就会损失收入。这更不用说其他产品的短缺了，比如苹果手表。苹果有可能利用其供应链实力来渡过难关并拯救圣诞节，但我认为这种情况是一场完美的风暴，苹果创纪录的盈利可能会在这个周期内达到顶峰。如果苹果在周四的季度财报看涨期权上对通胀和供应链敲响警钟，这不仅会对苹果产生影响，还会对全球经济产生影响。考虑到供应链将是一场多么激烈的战斗，我更愿意在这里拥有像联合太平洋公司（UNP）这样的公司，而不是苹果。</blockquote></p><p> <b>iPhone Demand & Services Revenue</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iPhone 需求和服务收入</b></blockquote></p><p> On the plus side, demand for iPhones seems like it will be fairly resilient. Over the years, Apple has been successful in turning the iPhone from something that affluent consumers would shell out $600-$700 for to something that anyone can pay a small monthly subscription to have. To put this in economic terms, there's a lot of consumer surplus with the iPhone. As such, I'd expect iPhone demand to hold up pretty well, even in the face of consumers having less disposable income with stimulus unwinding and higher prices. The devil, of course, will be in Apple's ability to supply demand. One threat to Apple's growth projections is government intervention, however.</p><p><blockquote>从好的方面来看，对iPhone的需求似乎会相当有弹性。多年来，苹果成功地将iPhone从富裕消费者花600-700美元购买的东西变成了任何人都可以支付少量月费购买的东西。从经济角度来说，iPhone 有很多消费者剩余。因此，我预计 iPhone 需求将保持良好态势，即使面对刺激措施退出和价格上涨导致消费者可支配收入减少的情况。当然，问题在于苹果满足需求的能力。然而，苹果增长预测面临的一个威胁是政府干预。</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>Antitrust concerns. Apple's services revenue growth is especially vulnerable to antitrust action. Apple charges Google (GOOG) over $1 billion per month to be the default search engine on iPhone. Additionally, Apple has a monopoly over the App Store, essentially controlling what apps are allowed to go on iPhones and taking a cut. Apple faces antitrust lawsuits all the time in the US and Europe. Apple's latest surge in services growth will likely be driven by advertising revenue, which benefitted from Apple's privacy changes. These revenue sources are all great for Apple in a vacuum, but the problem is whether the market is pricing Apple stock like all of these revenue sources will see perpetual growth when there is actually political, legal, and economic pushback against them. The question then becomes whether Apple's valuation makes sense in the context of these headwinds to growth.</li> <li>Right to repair is potentially a bigger long-term problem for Apple, which has relied on planned obsolescence and rapidly changing technology to coax consumers to upgrade. For example, increasing competition in the automobile market means that cars are now lasting longer, which is better for consumers. If government regulation and/or competition forces Apple to build more durable products, then iPhone sales are not going to sustain themselves at their current pace.</li> </ol> <b>A Side Note: Apple 5G Market Share</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>反垄断问题。苹果的服务收入增长尤其容易受到反垄断诉讼的影响。苹果每月向谷歌（GOOG）收取超过10亿美元的费用，作为iPhone上的默认搜索引擎。此外，苹果垄断了应用商店，基本上控制了哪些应用可以在iPhone上使用，并从中抽成。苹果在美国和欧洲一直面临反垄断诉讼。苹果最新的服务增长激增可能是由广告收入推动的，广告收入受益于苹果的隐私变化。这些收入来源对于处于真空状态的苹果来说都很好，但问题是市场是否正在定价苹果股票，因为当实际上存在政治、法律和经济阻力时，所有这些收入来源都将看到永久增长。那么问题就变成了，在这些增长阻力的背景下，苹果的估值是否有意义。</li><li>对于苹果来说，维修权可能是一个更大的长期问题，该国一直依靠计划报废和快速变化的技术来说服消费者升级。例如，汽车市场竞争的加剧意味着汽车现在的使用寿命更长，这对消费者来说更好。如果政府监管和/或竞争迫使苹果生产更耐用的产品，那么iPhone的销售将无法以目前的速度维持。</li></ol><b>旁注：苹果5G市场份额</b></blockquote></p><p> To oversimplify things, 3G allowed cellphones to send pictures in the 2000s and 4G made iPhones fast enough to watch and send videos in the 2010s. Now 5G is supposed to bringfaster internet to iPhones, with the most obvious use case being watching streaming TV like Netflix (NFLX) or live sports from your phone with minimal interruption. The ultimate goal for 5G is for it to be faster than WiFi, which would be disruptive and a win for consumers. The new iPhones also have a great camera, which is a plus.</p><p><blockquote>简单来说，3G 在 2000 年代允许手机发送图片，而 4G 在 2010 年代使 iPhone 的速度足以观看和发送视频。现在，5G应该为iPhones带来更快的互联网，最明显的用例是在手机上观看网飞（NFLX）等流媒体电视或直播体育赛事，中断最小。5G的最终目标是比WiFi更快，这将是颠覆性的，也是消费者的胜利。新的iPhones也有一个很棒的摄像头，这是一个优点。</blockquote></p><p> 5G hasn't really proved that much so far besides being a corporate buzzword you hear in AT&T and Verizon's saturation of TV advertising, but it will be interesting to see how the technology continues to develop. Apple is dominating the market share for 5G phones with nearly 30% share, nearly twice the share of their closest competitor. I wouldn't extrapolate this to assume that Apple will make huge market share gains for the broader market, but it's a clear positive for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，除了在美国电话电报公司和威瑞森饱和的电视广告中听到的一个企业流行语之外，5G还没有真正证明这一点，但看看这项技术如何继续发展将会很有趣。苹果以近30%的份额主导着5G手机的市场份额，几乎是其最接近的竞争对手的两倍。我不会推断苹果将为大盘带来巨大的市场份额增长，但这对该股来说显然是利好。</blockquote></p><p> Will people rush en masse to buy a new iPhone because it's faster than the old one? I doubt it, but it should provide a tailwind for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>人们会因为新iPhone比旧iPhone快而蜂拥而至吗？我对此表示怀疑，但它应该会为该股提供推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Apple Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> I don't particularly like the risk/reward of buying AAPL stock before earnings here. I've previously modeled about 7% annual returns for investors buying Apple at current prices– the present price implies about the same return. Once my largest holding, the increase in the price of AAPL since late 2019 has far outrun the actual capabilities of the business. I'd rate AAPL a hold here, with moderate long-run returns expected and some downside risk in the short-run from the ongoing supply chain chaos. Apple is expected to earn $5.63 in 2022, which would break its all-time record likely to be set when FY 2021 is reported on Thursday. With inflationary/supply chain pressures mounting and stimulus unwinding, I think the FY 2022 earnings estimates are probably a bit too optimistic for AAPL stock, and as such, the risk/reward isn't favorable at this time.</p><p><blockquote>我不太喜欢在财报公布前购买 AAPL 股票的风险/回报。我之前对以当前价格购买苹果的投资者进行了大约7%的年回报率建模——当前价格意味着大约相同的回报率。AAPL曾经是我最大的持股，但自2019年底以来，其价格上涨已经远远超出了该业务的实际能力。我在这里给予 AAPL 持有评级，预计长期回报适中，并且由于持续的供应链混乱，短期内存在一些下行风险。苹果预计 2022 年盈利为 5.63 美元，这将打破周四公布 2021 财年时可能创下的历史纪录。随着通胀/供应链压力的增加和刺激措施的逐步取消，我认为 2022 财年盈利预测对 AAPL 股票来说可能有点过于乐观，因此，目前的风险/回报并不有利。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple A Buy, Sell, Or Hold Before Q4 Earnings?<blockquote>在第四季度财报公布之前，苹果是买入、卖出还是持有？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple A Buy, Sell, Or Hold Before Q4 Earnings?<blockquote>在第四季度财报公布之前，苹果是买入、卖出还是持有？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-27 11:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Apple reports Q4 FY 2021 earnings on Thursday, October 28th.</li> <li>Key questions: whether the ongoing supply chain chaos will snarl Apple's holiday aspirations–and whether demand can keep up with stimulus continuing to wind down.</li> <li>Chip shortages and shipping delays are the big wildcards–Apple's outlook will have implications not only for Apple–but for the US economy at large.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b296e3cf2839015829d0d24e27afb613\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1023\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>felixmizioznikov/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果将于 10 月 28 日星期四公布 2021 财年第四季度收益。</li><li>关键问题：持续的供应链混乱是否会扰乱苹果的假期愿望，以及需求是否能跟上刺激措施的持续退出。</li><li>芯片短缺和运输延迟是最大的未知数——苹果的前景不仅会对苹果产生影响，还会对整个美国经济产生影响。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>felixmizioznikov/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Apple Stock Expected to Go Up On Earnings?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股票预计会随着盈利而上涨吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Earnings season hits its peak with Apple (AAPL) reporting earnings after the bell on Thursday, October 28th. Traders have been buying Apple stock after its September correction, but earnings will decide the tug-of-war between Apple bulls and Apple bears.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果 (AAPL) 于 10 月 28 日星期四盘后公布收益，财报季达到顶峰。苹果股票在 9 月份回调后一直在买入，但盈利将决定苹果多头和苹果空头之间的拉锯战。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75383021ae523c74b5fd4b0902352205\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Key issues on deck:</p><p><blockquote>甲板上的关键问题：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Will the global supply chain crisis finally drag Apple down with it? The 2020 holiday season (Apple's FY '21) was the best holiday season ever for Apple, with demand boosted by stimulus and limited issues with supply. 2021 looks ominous, with now over 100 ships waiting to unload in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, while the Chinese energy crisis imposes blackouts on some Apple suppliers. I'm not seeing many signs of progress with inflation and shortages, especially with the price of oil rising higher every single week.</li> <li>Will consumer demand in the United States and Europe remain strong with stimulus unwinding? With multiple rounds of $1,200 stimulus checks and consumers stuck at home, iPhone revenue hit a record after the pandemic. Now, with $4 gas in many areas of the US, rising food prices, and stimulus spent and gone, those prior year comps could start to look hard to match. This said–I'd expect iPhone demand to remain relatively strong–which only matters if Apple can supply it.</li> <li>As Apple's valuation has risen, services growth is the key to Apple's business growing into its nearly $2.5 trillion valuation. Investors are sure to watch for indications to services can keep growing at a rapid rate, and are likely to be wary of any indications that competition and/or antitrust action could slow growth.</li> </ul> <b>Is Apple Impacted By The Supply Chain Crisis?</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>全球供应链危机最终会拖累苹果吗？2020 年假日季（苹果 21 财年）是苹果有史以来最好的假日季，刺激措施提振了需求，但供应问题有限。2021 年看起来不祥，目前有 100 多艘船舶在洛杉矶和长滩港口等待卸货，而中国能源危机导致一些苹果供应商停电。我没有看到通货膨胀和短缺有太多进展的迹象，尤其是油价每周都在上涨。</li><li>随着刺激措施的退出，美国和欧洲的消费者需求会保持强劲吗？随着多轮1200美元的刺激支票和消费者被困在家里，iPhone的收入在大流行后创下了纪录。现在，随着美国许多地区汽油价格达到 4 美元，食品价格上涨，刺激措施耗尽并消失，前一年的业绩可能会开始难以匹配。也就是说——我预计iPhone需求将保持相对强劲——这仅取决于苹果是否能够供应。</li><li>随着苹果估值的上升，服务增长是苹果业务增长至近2.5万亿美元估值的关键。投资者肯定会关注服务业可能保持快速增长的迹象，并可能警惕任何竞争和/或反垄断行动可能减缓增长的迹象。</li></ul><b>苹果是否受到供应链危机的影响？</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is known for having a world-class supply chain. Apple's massive scale means that Apple historically tells suppliers to jump, and suppliers ask \"how high?\" As such, Apple saw far fewer disruptions early in the pandemic than companies with less logistical expertise/firepower (e.g. US automakers). As such, AAPL stock has had a banner FY 2021 and is expected to earn an all-time high of $5.58 per share for the year.</p><p><blockquote>苹果以拥有世界级的供应链而闻名。苹果的庞大规模意味着苹果历来告诉供应商跳，供应商问“有多高？”因此，与物流专业知识/火力较少的公司（例如美国汽车制造商）相比，苹果在疫情早期遭受的干扰要少得多。因此，AAPL 股票在 2021 财年表现强劲，预计全年每股收益将达到 5.58 美元的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> With the supply chain situation continuing to deteriorate in the United States, Bloomberg has recently reported that Apple's luck may be coming to an end.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国供应链形势持续恶化，彭博社近日报道称，苹果的运气可能即将走到尽头。</blockquote></p><p> From Bloomberg:</p><p><blockquote>来自彭博社：</blockquote></p><p> Apple had expected to produce 90 million new iPhone models this year, but is now telling manufacturing partners that the total will be lower because Broadcom Inc. and Texas Instruments Inc. are struggling to deliver enough components, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the situation is private. Apple is now expected to cut production by as many as 10 million iPhones due to chip shortages. Recent reporting shows that if you order an iPhone 13 today, Apple estimates that they can get it to you by early December. But with over 100 ships piled up off the coast of California, I think Apple, like many manufacturers, is being optimistic about shipping dates. Shortages will likely be worse on the East Coast due to the goods having to cross the country through jams at West Coast railyards and trucking warehouses as well.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士表示，苹果原本预计今年将生产 9000 万部新 iPhone 机型，但现在告诉制造合作伙伴，由于博通公司和德州仪器公司正在努力交付足够的零部件，总数将会更低。要求匿名，因为情况是私密的。由于芯片短缺，苹果现在预计将减产多达1000万部iPhone。最近的报道显示，如果你今天订购iPhone 13，苹果估计他们可以在12月初送到你手中。但随着 100 多艘船只堆积在加州海岸，我认为苹果和许多制造商一样，对发货日期持乐观态度。东海岸的短缺可能会更严重，因为货物必须通过西海岸铁路站场和卡车运输仓库的堵塞穿越全国。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Los Angeles Ports: 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>洛杉矶港口：2021</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01d1d18f0f9af9b0905171a36b7c30a0\" tg-width=\"1100\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Los Angeles Ports: 2019</b></p><p><blockquote><b>洛杉矶港口：2019</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e0db19f9dc28174f19d477e66de294e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: CNN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNN</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The port congestion may soon ease, but not for the reason Corporate America hopes. China is facing severe shortages of energy commodities going into winter, and they're already curtailing manufacturing, which has already impacted Apple. Morgan Stanley came out with a note that said they think Apple will gain market share from this because competitors will have even worse problems with the supply chain. I'd push back on this because Apple is a consumer discretionary company.</p><p><blockquote>港口拥堵可能很快就会缓解，但原因并非美国公司所希望的。进入冬季，中国面临着能源商品的严重短缺，他们已经在削减制造业，这已经影响了苹果。摩根士丹利发表声明称，他们认为苹果将从中获得市场份额，因为竞争对手在供应链方面将面临更严重的问题。我会反驳这一点，因为苹果是一家非必需消费品公司。</blockquote></p><p> Nobody <i>needs</i> an iPhone, so if customers wait five years to replace their phones instead of three years, Apple simply loses the revenue. This is to say nothing about shortages of other products, like the Apple Watch. It's possible Apple could use its supply chain muscle to fight through and save Christmas, but I think this situation is such a perfect storm that Apple's record earnings will probably be peaked for the cycle. If Apple sounds the alarm on inflation and the supply chain in their quarterly earnings call on Thursday, it would have implications not only for Apple, but for the global economy as well. I'd much rather own a company like Union Pacific (UNP) here than Apple, given how much of a battle the supply chain is going to be.</p><p><blockquote>没人<i>需求</i>一部 iPhone，因此如果客户等待五年而不是三年来更换手机，苹果就会损失收入。这更不用说其他产品的短缺了，比如苹果手表。苹果有可能利用其供应链实力来渡过难关并拯救圣诞节，但我认为这种情况是一场完美的风暴，苹果创纪录的盈利可能会在这个周期内达到顶峰。如果苹果在周四的季度财报看涨期权上对通胀和供应链敲响警钟，这不仅会对苹果产生影响，还会对全球经济产生影响。考虑到供应链将是一场多么激烈的战斗，我更愿意在这里拥有像联合太平洋公司（UNP）这样的公司，而不是苹果。</blockquote></p><p> <b>iPhone Demand & Services Revenue</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iPhone 需求和服务收入</b></blockquote></p><p> On the plus side, demand for iPhones seems like it will be fairly resilient. Over the years, Apple has been successful in turning the iPhone from something that affluent consumers would shell out $600-$700 for to something that anyone can pay a small monthly subscription to have. To put this in economic terms, there's a lot of consumer surplus with the iPhone. As such, I'd expect iPhone demand to hold up pretty well, even in the face of consumers having less disposable income with stimulus unwinding and higher prices. The devil, of course, will be in Apple's ability to supply demand. One threat to Apple's growth projections is government intervention, however.</p><p><blockquote>从好的方面来看，对iPhone的需求似乎会相当有弹性。多年来，苹果成功地将iPhone从富裕消费者花600-700美元购买的东西变成了任何人都可以支付少量月费购买的东西。从经济角度来说，iPhone 有很多消费者剩余。因此，我预计 iPhone 需求将保持良好态势，即使面对刺激措施退出和价格上涨导致消费者可支配收入减少的情况。当然，问题在于苹果满足需求的能力。然而，苹果增长预测面临的一个威胁是政府干预。</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>Antitrust concerns. Apple's services revenue growth is especially vulnerable to antitrust action. Apple charges Google (GOOG) over $1 billion per month to be the default search engine on iPhone. Additionally, Apple has a monopoly over the App Store, essentially controlling what apps are allowed to go on iPhones and taking a cut. Apple faces antitrust lawsuits all the time in the US and Europe. Apple's latest surge in services growth will likely be driven by advertising revenue, which benefitted from Apple's privacy changes. These revenue sources are all great for Apple in a vacuum, but the problem is whether the market is pricing Apple stock like all of these revenue sources will see perpetual growth when there is actually political, legal, and economic pushback against them. The question then becomes whether Apple's valuation makes sense in the context of these headwinds to growth.</li> <li>Right to repair is potentially a bigger long-term problem for Apple, which has relied on planned obsolescence and rapidly changing technology to coax consumers to upgrade. For example, increasing competition in the automobile market means that cars are now lasting longer, which is better for consumers. If government regulation and/or competition forces Apple to build more durable products, then iPhone sales are not going to sustain themselves at their current pace.</li> </ol> <b>A Side Note: Apple 5G Market Share</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>反垄断问题。苹果的服务收入增长尤其容易受到反垄断诉讼的影响。苹果每月向谷歌（GOOG）收取超过10亿美元的费用，作为iPhone上的默认搜索引擎。此外，苹果垄断了应用商店，基本上控制了哪些应用可以在iPhone上使用，并从中抽成。苹果在美国和欧洲一直面临反垄断诉讼。苹果最新的服务增长激增可能是由广告收入推动的，广告收入受益于苹果的隐私变化。这些收入来源对于处于真空状态的苹果来说都很好，但问题是市场是否正在定价苹果股票，因为当实际上存在政治、法律和经济阻力时，所有这些收入来源都将看到永久增长。那么问题就变成了，在这些增长阻力的背景下，苹果的估值是否有意义。</li><li>对于苹果来说，维修权可能是一个更大的长期问题，该国一直依靠计划报废和快速变化的技术来说服消费者升级。例如，汽车市场竞争的加剧意味着汽车现在的使用寿命更长，这对消费者来说更好。如果政府监管和/或竞争迫使苹果生产更耐用的产品，那么iPhone的销售将无法以目前的速度维持。</li></ol><b>旁注：苹果5G市场份额</b></blockquote></p><p> To oversimplify things, 3G allowed cellphones to send pictures in the 2000s and 4G made iPhones fast enough to watch and send videos in the 2010s. Now 5G is supposed to bringfaster internet to iPhones, with the most obvious use case being watching streaming TV like Netflix (NFLX) or live sports from your phone with minimal interruption. The ultimate goal for 5G is for it to be faster than WiFi, which would be disruptive and a win for consumers. The new iPhones also have a great camera, which is a plus.</p><p><blockquote>简单来说，3G 在 2000 年代允许手机发送图片，而 4G 在 2010 年代使 iPhone 的速度足以观看和发送视频。现在，5G应该为iPhones带来更快的互联网，最明显的用例是在手机上观看网飞（NFLX）等流媒体电视或直播体育赛事，中断最小。5G的最终目标是比WiFi更快，这将是颠覆性的，也是消费者的胜利。新的iPhones也有一个很棒的摄像头，这是一个优点。</blockquote></p><p> 5G hasn't really proved that much so far besides being a corporate buzzword you hear in AT&T and Verizon's saturation of TV advertising, but it will be interesting to see how the technology continues to develop. Apple is dominating the market share for 5G phones with nearly 30% share, nearly twice the share of their closest competitor. I wouldn't extrapolate this to assume that Apple will make huge market share gains for the broader market, but it's a clear positive for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，除了在美国电话电报公司和威瑞森饱和的电视广告中听到的一个企业流行语之外，5G还没有真正证明这一点，但看看这项技术如何继续发展将会很有趣。苹果以近30%的份额主导着5G手机的市场份额，几乎是其最接近的竞争对手的两倍。我不会推断苹果将为大盘带来巨大的市场份额增长，但这对该股来说显然是利好。</blockquote></p><p> Will people rush en masse to buy a new iPhone because it's faster than the old one? I doubt it, but it should provide a tailwind for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>人们会因为新iPhone比旧iPhone快而蜂拥而至吗？我对此表示怀疑，但它应该会为该股提供推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Apple Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> I don't particularly like the risk/reward of buying AAPL stock before earnings here. I've previously modeled about 7% annual returns for investors buying Apple at current prices– the present price implies about the same return. Once my largest holding, the increase in the price of AAPL since late 2019 has far outrun the actual capabilities of the business. I'd rate AAPL a hold here, with moderate long-run returns expected and some downside risk in the short-run from the ongoing supply chain chaos. Apple is expected to earn $5.63 in 2022, which would break its all-time record likely to be set when FY 2021 is reported on Thursday. With inflationary/supply chain pressures mounting and stimulus unwinding, I think the FY 2022 earnings estimates are probably a bit too optimistic for AAPL stock, and as such, the risk/reward isn't favorable at this time.</p><p><blockquote>我不太喜欢在财报公布前购买 AAPL 股票的风险/回报。我之前对以当前价格购买苹果的投资者进行了大约7%的年回报率建模——当前价格意味着大约相同的回报率。AAPL曾经是我最大的持股，但自2019年底以来，其价格上涨已经远远超出了该业务的实际能力。我在这里给予 AAPL 持有评级，预计长期回报适中，并且由于持续的供应链混乱，短期内存在一些下行风险。苹果预计 2022 年盈利为 5.63 美元，这将打破周四公布 2021 财年时可能创下的历史纪录。随着通胀/供应链压力的增加和刺激措施的逐步取消，我认为 2022 财年盈利预测对 AAPL 股票来说可能有点过于乐观，因此，目前的风险/回报并不有利。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461874-apple-buy-sell-hold-q4-earnings\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461874-apple-buy-sell-hold-q4-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143606145","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple reports Q4 FY 2021 earnings on Thursday, October 28th.\nKey questions: whether the ongoing supply chain chaos will snarl Apple's holiday aspirations–and whether demand can keep up with stimulus continuing to wind down.\nChip shortages and shipping delays are the big wildcards–Apple's outlook will have implications not only for Apple–but for the US economy at large.\n\nfelixmizioznikov/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIs Apple Stock Expected to Go Up On Earnings?\nEarnings season hits its peak with Apple (AAPL) reporting earnings after the bell on Thursday, October 28th. Traders have been buying Apple stock after its September correction, but earnings will decide the tug-of-war between Apple bulls and Apple bears.\nData by YCharts\nKey issues on deck:\n\nWill the global supply chain crisis finally drag Apple down with it? The 2020 holiday season (Apple's FY '21) was the best holiday season ever for Apple, with demand boosted by stimulus and limited issues with supply. 2021 looks ominous, with now over 100 ships waiting to unload in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, while the Chinese energy crisis imposes blackouts on some Apple suppliers. I'm not seeing many signs of progress with inflation and shortages, especially with the price of oil rising higher every single week.\nWill consumer demand in the United States and Europe remain strong with stimulus unwinding? With multiple rounds of $1,200 stimulus checks and consumers stuck at home, iPhone revenue hit a record after the pandemic. Now, with $4 gas in many areas of the US, rising food prices, and stimulus spent and gone, those prior year comps could start to look hard to match. This said–I'd expect iPhone demand to remain relatively strong–which only matters if Apple can supply it.\nAs Apple's valuation has risen, services growth is the key to Apple's business growing into its nearly $2.5 trillion valuation. Investors are sure to watch for indications to services can keep growing at a rapid rate, and are likely to be wary of any indications that competition and/or antitrust action could slow growth.\n\nIs Apple Impacted By The Supply Chain Crisis?\nApple is known for having a world-class supply chain. Apple's massive scale means that Apple historically tells suppliers to jump, and suppliers ask \"how high?\" As such, Apple saw far fewer disruptions early in the pandemic than companies with less logistical expertise/firepower (e.g. US automakers). As such, AAPL stock has had a banner FY 2021 and is expected to earn an all-time high of $5.58 per share for the year.\nWith the supply chain situation continuing to deteriorate in the United States, Bloomberg has recently reported that Apple's luck may be coming to an end.\nFrom Bloomberg:\n\n Apple had expected to produce 90 million new iPhone models this year, but is now telling manufacturing partners that the total will be lower because Broadcom Inc. and Texas Instruments Inc. are struggling to deliver enough components, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the situation is private.\n\nApple is now expected to cut production by as many as 10 million iPhones due to chip shortages. Recent reporting shows that if you order an iPhone 13 today, Apple estimates that they can get it to you by early December. But with over 100 ships piled up off the coast of California, I think Apple, like many manufacturers, is being optimistic about shipping dates. Shortages will likely be worse on the East Coast due to the goods having to cross the country through jams at West Coast railyards and trucking warehouses as well.\nLos Angeles Ports: 2021\n\nLos Angeles Ports: 2019\nSource: CNN\nThe port congestion may soon ease, but not for the reason Corporate America hopes. China is facing severe shortages of energy commodities going into winter, and they're already curtailing manufacturing, which has already impacted Apple. Morgan Stanley came out with a note that said they think Apple will gain market share from this because competitors will have even worse problems with the supply chain. I'd push back on this because Apple is a consumer discretionary company.\nNobody needs an iPhone, so if customers wait five years to replace their phones instead of three years, Apple simply loses the revenue. This is to say nothing about shortages of other products, like the Apple Watch. It's possible Apple could use its supply chain muscle to fight through and save Christmas, but I think this situation is such a perfect storm that Apple's record earnings will probably be peaked for the cycle. If Apple sounds the alarm on inflation and the supply chain in their quarterly earnings call on Thursday, it would have implications not only for Apple, but for the global economy as well. I'd much rather own a company like Union Pacific (UNP) here than Apple, given how much of a battle the supply chain is going to be.\niPhone Demand & Services Revenue\nOn the plus side, demand for iPhones seems like it will be fairly resilient. Over the years, Apple has been successful in turning the iPhone from something that affluent consumers would shell out $600-$700 for to something that anyone can pay a small monthly subscription to have. To put this in economic terms, there's a lot of consumer surplus with the iPhone. As such, I'd expect iPhone demand to hold up pretty well, even in the face of consumers having less disposable income with stimulus unwinding and higher prices. The devil, of course, will be in Apple's ability to supply demand. One threat to Apple's growth projections is government intervention, however.\n\nAntitrust concerns. Apple's services revenue growth is especially vulnerable to antitrust action. Apple charges Google (GOOG) over $1 billion per month to be the default search engine on iPhone. Additionally, Apple has a monopoly over the App Store, essentially controlling what apps are allowed to go on iPhones and taking a cut. Apple faces antitrust lawsuits all the time in the US and Europe. Apple's latest surge in services growth will likely be driven by advertising revenue, which benefitted from Apple's privacy changes. These revenue sources are all great for Apple in a vacuum, but the problem is whether the market is pricing Apple stock like all of these revenue sources will see perpetual growth when there is actually political, legal, and economic pushback against them. The question then becomes whether Apple's valuation makes sense in the context of these headwinds to growth.\nRight to repair is potentially a bigger long-term problem for Apple, which has relied on planned obsolescence and rapidly changing technology to coax consumers to upgrade. For example, increasing competition in the automobile market means that cars are now lasting longer, which is better for consumers. If government regulation and/or competition forces Apple to build more durable products, then iPhone sales are not going to sustain themselves at their current pace.\n\nA Side Note: Apple 5G Market Share\nTo oversimplify things, 3G allowed cellphones to send pictures in the 2000s and 4G made iPhones fast enough to watch and send videos in the 2010s. Now 5G is supposed to bringfaster internet to iPhones, with the most obvious use case being watching streaming TV like Netflix (NFLX) or live sports from your phone with minimal interruption. The ultimate goal for 5G is for it to be faster than WiFi, which would be disruptive and a win for consumers. The new iPhones also have a great camera, which is a plus.\n5G hasn't really proved that much so far besides being a corporate buzzword you hear in AT&T and Verizon's saturation of TV advertising, but it will be interesting to see how the technology continues to develop. Apple is dominating the market share for 5G phones with nearly 30% share, nearly twice the share of their closest competitor. I wouldn't extrapolate this to assume that Apple will make huge market share gains for the broader market, but it's a clear positive for the stock.\nWill people rush en masse to buy a new iPhone because it's faster than the old one? I doubt it, but it should provide a tailwind for the stock.\nIs Apple Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nI don't particularly like the risk/reward of buying AAPL stock before earnings here. I've previously modeled about 7% annual returns for investors buying Apple at current prices– the present price implies about the same return. Once my largest holding, the increase in the price of AAPL since late 2019 has far outrun the actual capabilities of the business. I'd rate AAPL a hold here, with moderate long-run returns expected and some downside risk in the short-run from the ongoing supply chain chaos. Apple is expected to earn $5.63 in 2022, which would break its all-time record likely to be set when FY 2021 is reported on Thursday. With inflationary/supply chain pressures mounting and stimulus unwinding, I think the FY 2022 earnings estimates are probably a bit too optimistic for AAPL stock, and as such, the risk/reward isn't favorable at this time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":625,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["PW"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/852773816"}
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