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2021-10-26

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The PC slowdown shouldn't hurt Microsoft earnings, and here's why<blockquote>个人电脑放缓应该不会损害微软的盈利，原因如下</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":852053006,"tweetId":"852053006","gmtCreate":1635226264260,"gmtModify":1635226264551,"author":{"id":3574676557290827,"idStr":"3574676557290827","authorId":3574676557290827,"authorIdStr":"3574676557290827","name":"blaCkbOx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e60934f569874a5dfc7a83e2074f311","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":15,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Nice</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Nice</body></html>","text":"Nice","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852053006","repostId":2177489964,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2177489964","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1635042148,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2177489964?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-24 10:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The PC slowdown shouldn't hurt Microsoft earnings, and here's why<blockquote>个人电脑放缓应该不会损害微软的盈利，原因如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2177489964","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Growth from Azure and other cloud products should mask over any disappointment from supply-chain iss","content":"Growth from Azure and other cloud products should mask over any disappointment from supply-chain issues affecting PC sales<blockquote>Azure 和其他云产品的增长应该会掩盖影响 PC 销售的供应链问题带来的任何失望</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/958e56d50bc03c5ef2195a2a879bec71\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Microsoft Corp. is scheduled to release fiscal first-quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday.<blockquote>微软定于周二盘后发布第一财季收益。</blockquote> The slowdown in personal computer sales due to supply-chain issues in recent months would have hurt Microsoft Corp. in past years, but the company's pivot to cloud computing and cloud software should insulate it from any earnings fallout.<blockquote>近几个月来，由于供应链问题导致个人电脑销售放缓，这可能会对微软公司造成损害，但该公司转向云计算和云软件应该会使其免受任何盈利影响。</blockquote> Microsoft&nbsp;is scheduled to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Tuesday afternoon, as it rolls out its new Windows 11 operating system and PC makers struggle to deliver new machines. While the Microsoft of Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer would have faced a lot of Wall Street pessimism if PC shipments were mangled and a new operating system was not quickly adopted, Satya Nadella's Microsoft should be just fine.<blockquote>微软定于周二下午公布第一财季收益，因为该公司将推出新的 Windows 11 操作系统，而个人电脑制造商正在努力交付新机器。如果个人电脑出货量中断，新的操作系统没有迅速采用，比尔盖茨和史蒂夫鲍尔默的微软将会面临华尔街的很多悲观情绪，但萨蒂亚纳德拉的微软应该没问题。</blockquote> That is because analysts and investors are mostly focused on Azure, Microsoft's cloud-computing answer to Amazon.com Inc.'s&nbsp;Amazon Web Services, as well as cloud-software offerings, decreasing the importance of Microsoft's PC business.<blockquote>这是因为分析师和投资者大多关注 Azure（微软对亚马逊公司 Amazon Web Services 的云计算解决方案）以及云软件产品，从而降低了微软 PC 业务的重要性。</blockquote> \"Sustained digital transformation momentum should offset the impact from mixed PC unit shipment estimates from IDC and Gartner,\" <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts wrote in a preview of the report, later adding, \"While our negative growth outlook for Windows OEM pressures our longer term earnings expectation for Microsoft, we also note Windows OEM overall represents a decreasing mix of overall Microsoft revenue and gross profit.\"<blockquote>“持续的数字化转型势头应该会抵消 IDC 和 Gartner 混合 PC 单位出货量估计的影响，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师在报告预览中写道，后来补充道：“虽然我们对 Windows OEM 的负增长前景给我们对微软的长期盈利预期带来了压力，但我们也注意到 Windows OEM 整体微软收入和毛利润的组合正在下降。”</blockquote> Azure has made sure that Windows' importance to Microsoft has decreased. The fast-growing cloud business is at the top of every analyst note about Microsoft, and analysts expect revenue to grow in the mid-40% range. (Microsoft does not disclose Azure performance except for percentage gain, despite AWS and Google&nbsp;(GOOGL) Cloud providing full revenue and operating profits for their competitive services).<blockquote>Azure 确保 Windows 对微软的重要性有所下降。快速增长的云业务是所有关于微软的分析师笔记的首要内容，分析师预计收入将增长 40% 左右。（尽管 AWS 和谷歌（GOOGL）云为其竞争服务提供了全部收入和运营利润，但微软除了百分比收益外，没有披露 Azure 的表现）。</blockquote> \"Fundamentally, ramping contribution from previously signed long-term Azure deals, continued Cloud migrations post-COVID, Microsoft's intensifying focus on Cloud verticalization and strong Microsoft 365 seat growth can sustain durable longer-term Azure growth,\" the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.<blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师写道：“从根本上说，之前签署的长期 Azure 交易、新冠疫情后持续的云迁移、微软对云垂直化的日益关注以及微软 365 席位的强劲增长可以维持 Azure 的持久长期增长。”</blockquote> There are factors that could add to Microsoft's growth as well, especially in the forecast. The $19.7 billion acquisition of health-care-focused company Nuance is expected to close before the end of the calendar year, and Microsoft recently disclosed that its cloud-based revenue would dump into the same revenue bucket as Azure.<blockquote>也有一些因素可能会促进微软的增长，尤其是在预测方面。以 197 亿美元收购专注于医疗保健的公司 Nuance 的交易预计将在今年年底前完成，微软最近透露，其基于云的收入将与 Azure 归入同一收入桶。</blockquote> While Microsoft did not disclose exactly how much that would mean, UBS analysts said in September that prior Nuance disclosures and a call they had with the company's investor relations team led them to estimate that about 46% of Nuance's revenue would be cloud-based. They estimated that would mean roughly $91 million in additional sales for Microsoft's cloud division in the fiscal second quarter, if the full quarter were to be included.<blockquote>虽然微软没有透露这到底意味着什么，但瑞银分析师在9月份表示，Nuance之前的披露以及他们与该公司投资者关系团队的看涨期权使他们估计Nuance约46%的收入将基于云。他们估计，如果包括整个季度，这将意味着微软云部门在第二财季的额外销售额约为 9100 万美元。</blockquote> Another bump could be coming in the future from increased prices for Microsoft's most popular cloud software offering, Office 365. Microsoft is increasing prices more than 10% across the board for the product, which the company described as \"the first substantive pricing update since we launched Office 365 a decade ago,\" which also gives analysts confidence that Microsoft can withstand any supply-chain pressures on the PC market.<blockquote>微软最受欢迎的云软件产品Office 365的价格上涨可能会在未来带来另一个上涨。微软将该产品的价格全面提高了10%以上，该公司将其描述为“自十年前推出Office 365以来的首次实质性定价更新”，这也让分析师相信微软能够承受PC市场的任何供应链压力。</blockquote> What to expect<blockquote>期待什么</blockquote> Earnings: Analysts on average expect Microsoft to report earnings of $2.08 a share, up from $1.82 a share a year ago. Contributors to Estimize -- a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from Wall Street analysts as well as buy-side analysts, fund managers, company executives, academics and others -- predict earnings of $2.22 a share.<blockquote>收益：分析师平均预计微软每股收益为 2.08 美元，高于一年前的每股 1.82 美元。Estimize 是一个众包平台，收集华尔街分析师以及买方分析师、基金经理、公司高管、学者和其他人的估计，其贡献者预测每股收益为 2.22 美元。</blockquote> Revenue: Analysts on average were modeling sales of $43.93 billion, which would be an improvement from $37.15 billion a year ago, after Microsoft forecast revenue of $43.3 billion to $44.2 billion. Estimize contributors expect $44.88 billion in sales.<blockquote>收入：分析师平均预测销售额为 439.3 亿美元，比一年前的 371.5 亿美元有所改善，此前微软预测收入为 433 亿美元至 442 亿美元。Estimize 贡献者预计销售额为 448.8 亿美元。</blockquote> Analyst expect $16.52 billion in sales from the \"Intelligent Cloud\" segment, after Microsoft guided for $16.4 billion to $16.65 billion; $14.67 billion in sales from the cloud-software-focused \"Productivity and Business Solutions\" segment, after a forecast of $14.5 billion to $14.75 billion; and $12.72 billion from \"More Personal Computing,\" after guidance for sales of $12.4 billion to $12.8 billion.<blockquote>分析师预计“智能云”部门的销售额为 165.2 亿美元，此前微软的预期为 164 亿美元至 166.5 亿美元；专注于云软件的“生产力和业务解决方案”部门的销售额为 146.7 亿美元，此前预测为 145 亿至 147.5 亿美元；在指导销售额为 124 亿美元至 128 亿美元之后，“更多个人计算”的收入为 127.2 亿美元。</blockquote> Stock movement: Microsoft shares have declined in the session following earnings releases in four of the past five quarters, though the last decline was only by 0.1%. The stock has increased 8.1% in the past three months and 45.2% in the past year, as the S&amp;P 500 index has grown by 4.1% and 31.6% in those periods, respectively.<blockquote>股票变动：在过去五个季度中的四个季度公布财报后，微软股价在盘中下跌，尽管上次下跌仅 0.1%。该股在过去三个月上涨了 8.1%，在过去一年上涨了 45.2%，而标普500指数在此期间分别上涨了 4.1% 和 31.6%。</blockquote> What analysts are saying<blockquote>分析师怎么说</blockquote> Analysts are in pretty universal agreement about Microsoft's current position. According to FactSet tracking, 33 out of 36 analysts rate the stock the equivalent of a buy, while the other three rate it as a hold.<blockquote>分析师们对微软目前的立场基本达成一致。根据 FactSet 跟踪，36 名分析师中有 33 名将该股评级为相当于买入，而另外三名分析师将其评级为持有。</blockquote> \"Currently trading at 27x our CY23 GAAP EPS estimates, Microsoft represents a rare combination of strong secular positioning and reasonable valuation within the software space,\" wrote the Morgan Stanley analysts, who rate the shares overweight with a price target of $331.<blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师写道：“微软目前的交易价格是我们 2023 财年 GAAP 每股收益预期的 27 倍，代表了软件领域强大的长期定位和合理估值的罕见结合。”他们将该股跑赢大盘评级为 331 美元。</blockquote> The once concern seems to be the durability of the current growth trajectory, which is why the Nuance acquisition and increased pricing of Office 365 is seen as key to the stock continuing to rise.<blockquote>曾经令人担忧的似乎是当前增长轨迹的持久性，这就是为什么 Nuance 收购和 Office 365 定价上涨被视为该股持续上涨的关键。</blockquote> \"Comps get progressively tougher throughout FY22, which should be met by Microsoft's durable growth portfolio of Azure/Security/Teams,\" wrote Jeffries analysts, who have an outperform rating and recently raised their price target to $375 from $345. \"Key items to watch are elevated expectations (Azure high 40s reported), integration with Nuance and increased security investments.\"<blockquote>杰弗里斯分析师写道：“整个 2022 财年，竞争将变得越来越艰难，微软 Azure/Security/Teams 的可持续增长产品组合应该会满足这一要求。”他们的评级为跑赢大盘，最近将目标价从 345 美元上调至 375 美元。“需要关注的关键项目是提高期望（据报道 Azure 高达 40 年代）、与 Nuance 的集成以及增加安全投资。”</blockquote> Microsoft has benefitted from the pandemic, as companies have relied on cloud-computing power and software to keep teams connected while working remotely. But Microsoft bull and Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives does not see a return to the office as a sign that the boom will end.<blockquote>微软从疫情中受益，因为公司依靠云计算能力和软件在远程工作时保持团队联系。但微软·布尔和韦德布什分析师 Daniel Ives 并不认为重返办公室是繁荣即将结束的迹象。</blockquote> \"We believe the Street's view of moderating cloud growth on the other side of this WFH cycle is contrary to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing in the field,\" Ives, with an outperform rating and $375 price target, wrote in a preview of the report. \"While we have seen the momentum of this backdrop in the last few years, we believe deal flow looks incrementally strong (Office 365/Azure combo deals in particular) heading into FY22 as we estimate that Microsoft is still only 35% through penetrating its unparalleled installed base on the cloud transition.\"<blockquote>艾夫斯在报告的预览中写道：“我们认为，华尔街关于在这个居家办公周期的另一边放缓云增长的观点与微软在该领域看到的交易活动相反。”他的评级为跑赢大盘，目标价为 375 美元。“虽然我们在过去几年中看到了这一背景的势头，但我们相信，进入 2022 财年，交易流看起来会逐渐强劲（特别是 Office 365/Azure 组合交易），因为我们估计微软仍只有 35% 通过渗透其无与伦比的安装基础云过渡。”</blockquote> Stifel analysts, with a buy rating and $325 price target, concurred.<blockquote>Stifel 分析师给予买入评级，目标价为 325 美元，对此表示同意。</blockquote> \"We continue to believe that the pandemic is forcing organizations to accelerate the pace of their cloud migrations and that Microsoft remains a key beneficiary of this modernization spend, especially around large new deal momentum, as its broad stack enables it to capture Tier 1 workloads previously out of reach,\" they wrote.<blockquote>“我们仍然相信，大流行正在迫使组织加快云迁移的步伐，而微软仍然是这种现代化支出的主要受益者，特别是在大型新交易势头方面，因为其广泛的堆栈使其能够捕获以前遥不可及的一级工作负载，”他们写道。</blockquote> The average price target on Microsoft stock as of Friday afternoon was $335.47, roughly 8.5% higher than the going rate.<blockquote>截至周五下午，微软股票的平均目标价为 335.47 美元，比现行价格高出约 8.5%。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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While the Microsoft of Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer would have faced a lot of Wall Street pessimism if PC shipments were mangled and a new operating system was not quickly adopted, Satya Nadella's Microsoft should be just fine.<blockquote>微软定于周二下午公布第一财季收益，因为该公司将推出新的 Windows 11 操作系统，而个人电脑制造商正在努力交付新机器。如果个人电脑出货量中断，新的操作系统没有迅速采用，比尔盖茨和史蒂夫鲍尔默的微软将会面临华尔街的很多悲观情绪，但萨蒂亚纳德拉的微软应该没问题。</blockquote> That is because analysts and investors are mostly focused on Azure, Microsoft's cloud-computing answer to Amazon.com Inc.'s&nbsp;Amazon Web Services, as well as cloud-software offerings, decreasing the importance of Microsoft's PC business.<blockquote>这是因为分析师和投资者大多关注 Azure（微软对亚马逊公司 Amazon Web Services 的云计算解决方案）以及云软件产品，从而降低了微软 PC 业务的重要性。</blockquote> \"Sustained digital transformation momentum should offset the impact from mixed PC unit shipment estimates from IDC and Gartner,\" <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts wrote in a preview of the report, later adding, \"While our negative growth outlook for Windows OEM pressures our longer term earnings expectation for Microsoft, we also note Windows OEM overall represents a decreasing mix of overall Microsoft revenue and gross profit.\"<blockquote>“持续的数字化转型势头应该会抵消 IDC 和 Gartner 混合 PC 单位出货量估计的影响，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师在报告预览中写道，后来补充道：“虽然我们对 Windows OEM 的负增长前景给我们对微软的长期盈利预期带来了压力，但我们也注意到 Windows OEM 整体微软收入和毛利润的组合正在下降。”</blockquote> Azure has made sure that Windows' importance to Microsoft has decreased. The fast-growing cloud business is at the top of every analyst note about Microsoft, and analysts expect revenue to grow in the mid-40% range. (Microsoft does not disclose Azure performance except for percentage gain, despite AWS and Google&nbsp;(GOOGL) Cloud providing full revenue and operating profits for their competitive services).<blockquote>Azure 确保 Windows 对微软的重要性有所下降。快速增长的云业务是所有关于微软的分析师笔记的首要内容，分析师预计收入将增长 40% 左右。（尽管 AWS 和谷歌（GOOGL）云为其竞争服务提供了全部收入和运营利润，但微软除了百分比收益外，没有披露 Azure 的表现）。</blockquote> \"Fundamentally, ramping contribution from previously signed long-term Azure deals, continued Cloud migrations post-COVID, Microsoft's intensifying focus on Cloud verticalization and strong Microsoft 365 seat growth can sustain durable longer-term Azure growth,\" the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.<blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师写道：“从根本上说，之前签署的长期 Azure 交易、新冠疫情后持续的云迁移、微软对云垂直化的日益关注以及微软 365 席位的强劲增长可以维持 Azure 的持久长期增长。”</blockquote> There are factors that could add to Microsoft's growth as well, especially in the forecast. The $19.7 billion acquisition of health-care-focused company Nuance is expected to close before the end of the calendar year, and Microsoft recently disclosed that its cloud-based revenue would dump into the same revenue bucket as Azure.<blockquote>也有一些因素可能会促进微软的增长，尤其是在预测方面。以 197 亿美元收购专注于医疗保健的公司 Nuance 的交易预计将在今年年底前完成，微软最近透露，其基于云的收入将与 Azure 归入同一收入桶。</blockquote> While Microsoft did not disclose exactly how much that would mean, UBS analysts said in September that prior Nuance disclosures and a call they had with the company's investor relations team led them to estimate that about 46% of Nuance's revenue would be cloud-based. They estimated that would mean roughly $91 million in additional sales for Microsoft's cloud division in the fiscal second quarter, if the full quarter were to be included.<blockquote>虽然微软没有透露这到底意味着什么，但瑞银分析师在9月份表示，Nuance之前的披露以及他们与该公司投资者关系团队的看涨期权使他们估计Nuance约46%的收入将基于云。他们估计，如果包括整个季度，这将意味着微软云部门在第二财季的额外销售额约为 9100 万美元。</blockquote> Another bump could be coming in the future from increased prices for Microsoft's most popular cloud software offering, Office 365. Microsoft is increasing prices more than 10% across the board for the product, which the company described as \"the first substantive pricing update since we launched Office 365 a decade ago,\" which also gives analysts confidence that Microsoft can withstand any supply-chain pressures on the PC market.<blockquote>微软最受欢迎的云软件产品Office 365的价格上涨可能会在未来带来另一个上涨。微软将该产品的价格全面提高了10%以上，该公司将其描述为“自十年前推出Office 365以来的首次实质性定价更新”，这也让分析师相信微软能够承受PC市场的任何供应链压力。</blockquote> What to expect<blockquote>期待什么</blockquote> Earnings: Analysts on average expect Microsoft to report earnings of $2.08 a share, up from $1.82 a share a year ago. Contributors to Estimize -- a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from Wall Street analysts as well as buy-side analysts, fund managers, company executives, academics and others -- predict earnings of $2.22 a share.<blockquote>收益：分析师平均预计微软每股收益为 2.08 美元，高于一年前的每股 1.82 美元。Estimize 是一个众包平台，收集华尔街分析师以及买方分析师、基金经理、公司高管、学者和其他人的估计，其贡献者预测每股收益为 2.22 美元。</blockquote> Revenue: Analysts on average were modeling sales of $43.93 billion, which would be an improvement from $37.15 billion a year ago, after Microsoft forecast revenue of $43.3 billion to $44.2 billion. Estimize contributors expect $44.88 billion in sales.<blockquote>收入：分析师平均预测销售额为 439.3 亿美元，比一年前的 371.5 亿美元有所改善，此前微软预测收入为 433 亿美元至 442 亿美元。Estimize 贡献者预计销售额为 448.8 亿美元。</blockquote> Analyst expect $16.52 billion in sales from the \"Intelligent Cloud\" segment, after Microsoft guided for $16.4 billion to $16.65 billion; $14.67 billion in sales from the cloud-software-focused \"Productivity and Business Solutions\" segment, after a forecast of $14.5 billion to $14.75 billion; and $12.72 billion from \"More Personal Computing,\" after guidance for sales of $12.4 billion to $12.8 billion.<blockquote>分析师预计“智能云”部门的销售额为 165.2 亿美元，此前微软的预期为 164 亿美元至 166.5 亿美元；专注于云软件的“生产力和业务解决方案”部门的销售额为 146.7 亿美元，此前预测为 145 亿至 147.5 亿美元；在指导销售额为 124 亿美元至 128 亿美元之后，“更多个人计算”的收入为 127.2 亿美元。</blockquote> Stock movement: Microsoft shares have declined in the session following earnings releases in four of the past five quarters, though the last decline was only by 0.1%. The stock has increased 8.1% in the past three months and 45.2% in the past year, as the S&amp;P 500 index has grown by 4.1% and 31.6% in those periods, respectively.<blockquote>股票变动：在过去五个季度中的四个季度公布财报后，微软股价在盘中下跌，尽管上次下跌仅 0.1%。该股在过去三个月上涨了 8.1%，在过去一年上涨了 45.2%，而标普500指数在此期间分别上涨了 4.1% 和 31.6%。</blockquote> What analysts are saying<blockquote>分析师怎么说</blockquote> Analysts are in pretty universal agreement about Microsoft's current position. According to FactSet tracking, 33 out of 36 analysts rate the stock the equivalent of a buy, while the other three rate it as a hold.<blockquote>分析师们对微软目前的立场基本达成一致。根据 FactSet 跟踪，36 名分析师中有 33 名将该股评级为相当于买入，而另外三名分析师将其评级为持有。</blockquote> \"Currently trading at 27x our CY23 GAAP EPS estimates, Microsoft represents a rare combination of strong secular positioning and reasonable valuation within the software space,\" wrote the Morgan Stanley analysts, who rate the shares overweight with a price target of $331.<blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师写道：“微软目前的交易价格是我们 2023 财年 GAAP 每股收益预期的 27 倍，代表了软件领域强大的长期定位和合理估值的罕见结合。”他们将该股跑赢大盘评级为 331 美元。</blockquote> The once concern seems to be the durability of the current growth trajectory, which is why the Nuance acquisition and increased pricing of Office 365 is seen as key to the stock continuing to rise.<blockquote>曾经令人担忧的似乎是当前增长轨迹的持久性，这就是为什么 Nuance 收购和 Office 365 定价上涨被视为该股持续上涨的关键。</blockquote> \"Comps get progressively tougher throughout FY22, which should be met by Microsoft's durable growth portfolio of Azure/Security/Teams,\" wrote Jeffries analysts, who have an outperform rating and recently raised their price target to $375 from $345. \"Key items to watch are elevated expectations (Azure high 40s reported), integration with Nuance and increased security investments.\"<blockquote>杰弗里斯分析师写道：“整个 2022 财年，竞争将变得越来越艰难，微软 Azure/Security/Teams 的可持续增长产品组合应该会满足这一要求。”他们的评级为跑赢大盘，最近将目标价从 345 美元上调至 375 美元。“需要关注的关键项目是提高期望（据报道 Azure 高达 40 年代）、与 Nuance 的集成以及增加安全投资。”</blockquote> Microsoft has benefitted from the pandemic, as companies have relied on cloud-computing power and software to keep teams connected while working remotely. But Microsoft bull and Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives does not see a return to the office as a sign that the boom will end.<blockquote>微软从疫情中受益，因为公司依靠云计算能力和软件在远程工作时保持团队联系。但微软·布尔和韦德布什分析师 Daniel Ives 并不认为重返办公室是繁荣即将结束的迹象。</blockquote> \"We believe the Street's view of moderating cloud growth on the other side of this WFH cycle is contrary to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing in the field,\" Ives, with an outperform rating and $375 price target, wrote in a preview of the report. \"While we have seen the momentum of this backdrop in the last few years, we believe deal flow looks incrementally strong (Office 365/Azure combo deals in particular) heading into FY22 as we estimate that Microsoft is still only 35% through penetrating its unparalleled installed base on the cloud transition.\"<blockquote>艾夫斯在报告的预览中写道：“我们认为，华尔街关于在这个居家办公周期的另一边放缓云增长的观点与微软在该领域看到的交易活动相反。”他的评级为跑赢大盘，目标价为 375 美元。“虽然我们在过去几年中看到了这一背景的势头，但我们相信，进入 2022 财年，交易流看起来会逐渐强劲（特别是 Office 365/Azure 组合交易），因为我们估计微软仍只有 35% 通过渗透其无与伦比的安装基础云过渡。”</blockquote> Stifel analysts, with a buy rating and $325 price target, concurred.<blockquote>Stifel 分析师给予买入评级，目标价为 325 美元，对此表示同意。</blockquote> \"We continue to believe that the pandemic is forcing organizations to accelerate the pace of their cloud migrations and that Microsoft remains a key beneficiary of this modernization spend, especially around large new deal momentum, as its broad stack enables it to capture Tier 1 workloads previously out of reach,\" they wrote.<blockquote>“我们仍然相信，大流行正在迫使组织加快云迁移的步伐，而微软仍然是这种现代化支出的主要受益者，特别是在大型新交易势头方面，因为其广泛的堆栈使其能够捕获以前遥不可及的一级工作负载，”他们写道。</blockquote> The average price target on Microsoft stock as of Friday afternoon was $335.47, roughly 8.5% higher than the going rate.<blockquote>截至周五下午，微软股票的平均目标价为 335.47 美元，比现行价格高出约 8.5%。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-pc-slowdown-shouldnt-hurt-microsoft-earnings-and-heres-why-11635003215?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-pc-slowdown-shouldnt-hurt-microsoft-earnings-and-heres-why-11635003215?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2177489964","content_text":"Growth from Azure and other cloud products should mask over any disappointment from supply-chain issues affecting PC sales\nMicrosoft Corp. is scheduled to release fiscal first-quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday.\nThe slowdown in personal computer sales due to supply-chain issues in recent months would have hurt Microsoft Corp. in past years, but the company's pivot to cloud computing and cloud software should insulate it from any earnings fallout.\nMicrosoft is scheduled to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Tuesday afternoon, as it rolls out its new Windows 11 operating system and PC makers struggle to deliver new machines. While the Microsoft of Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer would have faced a lot of Wall Street pessimism if PC shipments were mangled and a new operating system was not quickly adopted, Satya Nadella's Microsoft should be just fine.\nThat is because analysts and investors are mostly focused on Azure, Microsoft's cloud-computing answer to Amazon.com Inc.'s Amazon Web Services, as well as cloud-software offerings, decreasing the importance of Microsoft's PC business.\n\"Sustained digital transformation momentum should offset the impact from mixed PC unit shipment estimates from IDC and Gartner,\" Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a preview of the report, later adding, \"While our negative growth outlook for Windows OEM pressures our longer term earnings expectation for Microsoft, we also note Windows OEM overall represents a decreasing mix of overall Microsoft revenue and gross profit.\"\nAzure has made sure that Windows' importance to Microsoft has decreased. The fast-growing cloud business is at the top of every analyst note about Microsoft, and analysts expect revenue to grow in the mid-40% range. (Microsoft does not disclose Azure performance except for percentage gain, despite AWS and Google (GOOGL) Cloud providing full revenue and operating profits for their competitive services).\n\"Fundamentally, ramping contribution from previously signed long-term Azure deals, continued Cloud migrations post-COVID, Microsoft's intensifying focus on Cloud verticalization and strong Microsoft 365 seat growth can sustain durable longer-term Azure growth,\" the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.\nThere are factors that could add to Microsoft's growth as well, especially in the forecast. The $19.7 billion acquisition of health-care-focused company Nuance is expected to close before the end of the calendar year, and Microsoft recently disclosed that its cloud-based revenue would dump into the same revenue bucket as Azure.\nWhile Microsoft did not disclose exactly how much that would mean, UBS analysts said in September that prior Nuance disclosures and a call they had with the company's investor relations team led them to estimate that about 46% of Nuance's revenue would be cloud-based. They estimated that would mean roughly $91 million in additional sales for Microsoft's cloud division in the fiscal second quarter, if the full quarter were to be included.\nAnother bump could be coming in the future from increased prices for Microsoft's most popular cloud software offering, Office 365. Microsoft is increasing prices more than 10% across the board for the product, which the company described as \"the first substantive pricing update since we launched Office 365 a decade ago,\" which also gives analysts confidence that Microsoft can withstand any supply-chain pressures on the PC market.\nWhat to expect\nEarnings: Analysts on average expect Microsoft to report earnings of $2.08 a share, up from $1.82 a share a year ago. Contributors to Estimize -- a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from Wall Street analysts as well as buy-side analysts, fund managers, company executives, academics and others -- predict earnings of $2.22 a share.\nRevenue: Analysts on average were modeling sales of $43.93 billion, which would be an improvement from $37.15 billion a year ago, after Microsoft forecast revenue of $43.3 billion to $44.2 billion. Estimize contributors expect $44.88 billion in sales.\nAnalyst expect $16.52 billion in sales from the \"Intelligent Cloud\" segment, after Microsoft guided for $16.4 billion to $16.65 billion; $14.67 billion in sales from the cloud-software-focused \"Productivity and Business Solutions\" segment, after a forecast of $14.5 billion to $14.75 billion; and $12.72 billion from \"More Personal Computing,\" after guidance for sales of $12.4 billion to $12.8 billion.\nStock movement: Microsoft shares have declined in the session following earnings releases in four of the past five quarters, though the last decline was only by 0.1%. The stock has increased 8.1% in the past three months and 45.2% in the past year, as the S&P 500 index has grown by 4.1% and 31.6% in those periods, respectively.\nWhat analysts are saying\nAnalysts are in pretty universal agreement about Microsoft's current position. According to FactSet tracking, 33 out of 36 analysts rate the stock the equivalent of a buy, while the other three rate it as a hold.\n\"Currently trading at 27x our CY23 GAAP EPS estimates, Microsoft represents a rare combination of strong secular positioning and reasonable valuation within the software space,\" wrote the Morgan Stanley analysts, who rate the shares overweight with a price target of $331.\nThe once concern seems to be the durability of the current growth trajectory, which is why the Nuance acquisition and increased pricing of Office 365 is seen as key to the stock continuing to rise.\n\"Comps get progressively tougher throughout FY22, which should be met by Microsoft's durable growth portfolio of Azure/Security/Teams,\" wrote Jeffries analysts, who have an outperform rating and recently raised their price target to $375 from $345. \"Key items to watch are elevated expectations (Azure high 40s reported), integration with Nuance and increased security investments.\"\nMicrosoft has benefitted from the pandemic, as companies have relied on cloud-computing power and software to keep teams connected while working remotely. But Microsoft bull and Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives does not see a return to the office as a sign that the boom will end.\n\"We believe the Street's view of moderating cloud growth on the other side of this WFH cycle is contrary to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing in the field,\" Ives, with an outperform rating and $375 price target, wrote in a preview of the report. \"While we have seen the momentum of this backdrop in the last few years, we believe deal flow looks incrementally strong (Office 365/Azure combo deals in particular) heading into FY22 as we estimate that Microsoft is still only 35% through penetrating its unparalleled installed base on the cloud transition.\"\nStifel analysts, with a buy rating and $325 price target, concurred.\n\"We continue to believe that the pandemic is forcing organizations to accelerate the pace of their cloud migrations and that Microsoft remains a key beneficiary of this modernization spend, especially around large new deal momentum, as its broad stack enables it to capture Tier 1 workloads previously out of reach,\" they wrote.\nThe average price target on Microsoft stock as of Friday afternoon was $335.47, roughly 8.5% higher than the going rate.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3552,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/852053006"}