Juvie
2021-10-19
always a good time
Is Tesla Stock A Buy Or Sell Before Upcoming Earnings?<blockquote>在即将发布的财报之前，特斯拉股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>
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However, the sentiment-driven uptick is expected to dial back towards the high-$700 to $800 level shortly after to reflect Tesla's renewed intrinsic value on improved fundamentals.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05ae7d88ff7a98961733633ea30e5503\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1101\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本月早些时候，特斯拉公布第三季度全球交付量为 241,300 辆，创下了电动汽车巨头的纪录。</li><li>这些数据为好于预期的第三季度盈利结果奠定了基础，该结果预计将在几天内发布。</li><li>投资者对这一消息做出了积极反应，该股在过去一周突破了 800 美元大关。</li><li>在特斯拉即将发布第三季度财务业绩之前，股价可能会保持高位。然而，情绪驱动的上涨预计将在不久后回落至 700 美元至 800 美元的高位，以反映特斯拉因基本面改善而更新的内在价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla's(NASDAQ:TSLA)stockhas been on a steady uptrend since May, gaining almost 50% as rising global electric vehicle (“EV”) demand continues to underpin record-setting sales growth for the automaker. Tesla’s recent release of record-setting deliveries of 241,300 vehicles worldwide for the third quarter has gotten investors eyeing better-than-expected results at the upcoming earnings call. Paired with an overall improvement in market sentiment following recent reports of bottoming initial unemployment benefit claims and slowing producer price increases, which have assuaged fears of inflation eroding economic recovery, the stock has been further catapulted past the $800 mark with strong upward momentum over the past week.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）的股价自 5 月份以来一直处于稳步上升趋势，随着全球电动汽车 (“EV”) 需求的增长继续支撑该汽车制造商创纪录的销售增长，股价上涨了近 50%。特斯拉最近公布的第三季度全球交付量达到创纪录的 24.13 万辆，这让投资者开始关注即将举行的财报看涨期权好于预期的业绩。最近有报道称首次申请失业救济人数触底，生产者价格上涨放缓，市场情绪整体改善，缓解了对通胀侵蚀经济复苏的担忧，该股在过去一周以强劲的上涨势头进一步突破 800 美元大关。</blockquote></p><p> The stock will likely continue to benefit from an immediate boost considering improved investor sentiment stemming from expectations for upbeat results at the upcoming earnings call. But despite a strong quarter that points to a continued competitive advantage in managing ongoing operational pressures from supply chain constraints and accelerating global EV demand, the stock’s current price levels are already reflective of the company’s projected intrinsic value. While Tesla continues to improve from a fundamental point of view with continued outperforming sales across the board, new material catalysts would be required to sustain further expansion from a valuation standpoint. On this basis, we remain hold-rated on the stock ahead of Tesla’s upcoming earnings release, with a revised 12-month price target of $806.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到投资者对即将举行的财报看涨期权乐观结果的预期改善了投资者情绪，该股可能会继续受益于即将到来的提振。不过，尽管本季度表现强劲，表明在管理供应链限制和全球电动汽车需求加速带来的持续运营压力方面继续具有竞争优势，但该股目前的价格水平已经反映了公司的预计内在价值。虽然从基本面来看，特斯拉持续向好，销售持续全面跑赢大盘，但从估值角度来看，需要新材料催化剂来维持进一步扩张。在此基础上，在特斯拉即将发布的财报之前，我们维持对该股的持有评级，修订后的 12 个月目标价为 806 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Better-Than-Expected Q3 Delivery Volumes and What It Implies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度交付量好于预期及其意味着什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite a severely constrained supply of semiconductors and other supply chain chaos like congested ports, Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in the third quarter. The quarter marks Tesla’s best one yet, while also surpassing the average consensus estimate and Tesla guide for global deliveries of 223,677 vehicles and 221,952 vehicles, respectively. The results were a testament to Tesla’s exceptional handling of the ongoing chip supply crisis and logistical constraints, which continue to be a major overhang on the automotive sector. Even Volkswagen, one of Tesla’s strongest competitors, has openly complimented on the EV maker’s ability in leveraging proprietary software it had developed to enable compatibility with different suppliers’ chips as an “impressive” mean in navigating swiftly through the crisis.</p><p><blockquote>尽管半导体供应严重受限，港口拥堵等其他供应链混乱，特斯拉第三季度在全球交付了241,300辆汽车。本季度是特斯拉迄今为止最好的一个季度，同时也超过了全球交付量的平均共识估计值和特斯拉指南，分别为 223,677 辆和 221,952 辆。这一结果证明了特斯拉对持续存在的芯片供应危机和物流限制的出色处理，而这些问题仍然是汽车行业的一大突出问题。就连特斯拉最强劲的竞争对手之一大众汽车也公开称赞这家电动汽车制造商能够利用其开发的专有软件与不同供应商的芯片兼容，这是迅速度过危机的 “令人印象深刻 ”手段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Improved China Sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>改善中国销售</b></blockquote></p><p> Of the 241,300 vehicles delivered, more than 73,000 vehicles were attributable to local sales in China. Tesla delivered 56,006 vehicles produced from its Shanghai manufacturing plant in the month of September alone, with only 3,853 of which were exported to Europe. The results are a turnaround from depressed second quarter and July sales in the largest and fastest-growing EV market in the world, following a slew of negative press ranging from the April protest at the Shanghai Auto Show to the June recall of almost every Tesla vehicle sold in China due to a flaw in the vehicles’ active cruise control feature. It is also a sign that Tesla has been and continues to be doing just fine, if not even better, in satisfying robust demand from the Chinese market, despite rising competition from domestic peers like NIO (NYSE:NIO),Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) and XPeng (NYSE:XPEV).</p><p><blockquote>在交付的241,300辆汽车中，超过73,000辆来自中国本地销售。仅 9 月份，特斯拉上海制造厂生产的汽车就交付了 56,006 辆，其中只有 3,853 辆出口到欧洲。在这个全球最大、增长最快的电动汽车市场，第二季度和 7 月份销量低迷的情况出现了转机。在此之前，从 4 月份上海车展上的抗议活动到 6 月份几乎所有在华销售的特斯拉汽车都因车辆的主动巡航控制功能存在缺陷而被召回，一系列负面新闻纷至沓来。这也表明，尽管来自蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）、理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）等国内同行的竞争日益激烈，但特斯拉在满足中国市场的强劲需求方面一直并将继续做得很好，甚至更好。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With China’s new car sales down 17% in September and 13% in the entire third quarter due to a prolonged lack of chips, Tesla’s record-setting deliveries in the region further corroborates its strength in keeping related impacts at bay and under control. Although Elon Musk has continued to blame the “global shortage of chips and ships” as the biggest roadblock to maintaining sales growth of more than 50%, Tesla has fared the best amongst its peers, which will likely continue to reel from supply bottlenecks through to the end of 2022. The China Machinery Industry Federation has recently estimated two million fewer vehicles produced in China this year. The same narrative applies on the global sale, with a recently revised estimate on the quantified impact of ongoing chip supply shortages for the global automotive sector jumping to $210 billion, equivalent to 7.7 million fewer vehicles produced compared to a previous forecast of 3.9 million vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>由于长期缺乏芯片，中国 9 月份新车销量下降了 17%，整个第三季度下降了 13%，特斯拉在该地区创纪录的交付量进一步证实了其在控制相关影响方面的实力。尽管埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）继续指责 “全球芯片和船舶短缺 ”是维持 50% 以上销售增长的最大障碍，但特斯拉在同行中表现最好，很可能会继续摆脱供应瓶颈，直到 2022 年底。中国机械工业联合会最近估计，今年中国汽车产量将减少200万辆。同样的说法也适用于全球销售，最近修订的对全球汽车行业持续芯片供应短缺的量化影响的估计跃升至 2100 亿美元，相当于比之前预测的 390 万辆减少了 770 万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> <b>High-Margin Model 3/Y Sales Leading the Way</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高利润 Model 3/Y 销量领先</b></blockquote></p><p> As a pioneer and leader of the industry, Tesla remains a closely watched gauge for global EV adoption rates. Model 3 and Model Y sales accounted for more than 96% of third quarter deliveries. As the lower priced, higher-margin models, the Model 3 and Model Y were made to better appeal to mass market demand. The China-made Model Y boasts a competitive price tag of under $53,000, but earns a profit margin of close to 30% for Tesla, while the industry average hovers at only 8% to 10%. And now, with Model 3 and Model Y sales leading the way, not only do Tesla’s fundamentals benefit from better margins, but the trend also underpins rapid global EV adoption and robust demand for new energy vehicles around the world. This further corroborates the promising growth trajectory of Tesla’s core vehicle sales unit from a fundamental standpoint.</p><p><blockquote>作为该行业的先驱和领导者，特斯拉仍然是全球电动汽车采用率备受关注的指标。Model 3 和 Model Y 销量占第三季度交付量的 96% 以上。作为价格较低、利润较高的车型，Model 3 和 Model Y 旨在更好地吸引大众市场需求。中国制造的Model Y拥有不到53,000美元的有竞争力的价格，但特斯拉的利润率接近30%，而行业平均水平仅为8%至10%。现在，随着 Model 3 和 Model Y 的销量领先，特斯拉的基本面不仅受益于更高的利润率，而且这一趋势也支撑了全球电动汽车的快速普及和全球对新能源汽车的强劲需求。这从基本面上进一步印证了特斯拉核心汽车销售部门的良好增长轨迹。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revised Revenue Projections on an Improved Vehicle Sales Outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>由于汽车销售前景改善，修订了收入预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Adjusting our previous forecast for Tesla’s better-than-expected vehicle sales outlook for the rest of the year, considering milder impacts from global supply chain constraints and improved global EV demand, our base case projections estimate total automotive revenues of $44.5 billion by the end of the year. Meanwhile, we have maintained the long-term growth assumption for Tesla’s automotive sales at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 20.1% towards $170.4 billion in revenues by 2030, which is consistent with current market expectations on global EV demand going into the next decade. The growth assumption also takes into consideration Tesla’s expanded production capacity with the new Berlin and Texas manufacturing plants coming online later this year to satisfy the continued surge of demand for EVs. The Berlin plant, in particular, is expected to be gamechanger for the EV maker’s presence in Europe. Tesla’s Shanghai manufacturing facility currently supplies some of the highly demanded Model 3/Y vehicles sold in Europe. But as demand from both the Chinese and European markets continue to surge, the Berlin plant will play a critical role in alleviating any supply bottlenecks and/or logistics challenges pertaining to China exports considering expensive shipping costs and lengthened delivery times from increasingly congested ports. Tesla’s Gigafactory in Berlin is expected to come online as soon as next month, and aims to ramp production capacity up to anywhere between 5,000 and 10,000 vehicles per week by the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到全球供应链限制和全球电动汽车需求改善带来的温和影响，调整了我们之前对特斯拉今年剩余时间汽车销售前景好于预期的预测，我们的基本案例预测预计到今年年底汽车总收入将达到 445 亿美元。与此同时，我们维持了特斯拉汽车销量的长期增长假设，即到 2030 年，复合年增长率 (“CAGR”) 为 20.1%，到 2030 年，收入将达到 1,704 亿美元，这与当前市场对未来十年全球电动汽车需求的预期一致。增长假设还考虑到了特斯拉扩大的产能，新的柏林和德克萨斯制造工厂将于今年晚些时候投产，以满足电动汽车需求的持续增长。尤其是柏林工厂，预计将改变这家电动汽车制造商在欧洲的业务。特斯拉上海制造工厂目前供应一些在欧洲销售的需求量很大的 Model 3/Y 汽车。但随着中国和欧洲市场的需求持续增长，柏林工厂将在缓解与中国出口相关的任何供应瓶颈和/或物流挑战方面发挥关键作用，考虑到昂贵的运输成本和日益拥挤的港口交货时间延长。特斯拉位于柏林的超级工厂预计最快将于下月投产，目标是到明年年底将产能提高到每周 5000 至 10000 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eadc84e6814f5684c9241c1cc0cd380d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, service revenues are expected to grow accordingly as well, considering they are primarily generated from after-sales vehicle services. Our base case forecast projects $4.0 billion by the end of the year, with growth towards $15.0 billion by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，考虑到服务收入主要来自售后服务，预计服务收入也会相应增长。我们的基本案例预测预计到今年年底将达到 40 亿美元，到本十年末将增长至 150 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242db85aead4054611f1bbcbc00d6c04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"271\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Our previous forecast for energy generation and storage revenues remains unchanged, considering Tesla’s continued strategy in prioritizing vehicle productions over energy generation and storage productions in the event of constrained resources:</p><p><blockquote>考虑到特斯拉在资源有限的情况下将汽车生产置于能源发电和存储生产之上的持续战略，我们之前对能源发电和存储收入的预测保持不变：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “Well, by the same token, if we're prioritizing vehicle production, if there's a shortage of cell upward from some reason then we will throttle down Megapack and Powerwall production. So that it could be something's got to give, basically.”Elon Musk,Q2 Earnings Call Energy generation and storage revenues are expected to total $3.1 billion by the end of the year, and further advance at a CAGR of 8.9% towards $4.7 billion by 2030. The growth assumption applied reflects continued pent-up demand for the Megapack, which has already sold out until next year, and the Powerwall, which continues to accumulate a backlog of orders.</p><p><blockquote>“同样，如果我们优先考虑汽车生产，如果由于某种原因导致电池短缺，那么我们就会降低 Megapack 和 Powerwall 的产量。这样，基本上就可以做出一些贡献了。”埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk），第二季度财报 看涨期权能源发电和存储收入预计到今年年底将达到 31 亿美元，到 2030 年将以 8.9% 的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到 47 亿美元。所应用的增长假设反映了对 Megapack 和 Powerwall 的持续被压抑的需求，Megapack 已经售罄到明年，Powerwall 的持续积压订单。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8bffd547eb5b70da9a3346e474cd264\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, by maintaining the projected cost structure unchanged from our previous coverage, our revised forecast on Tesla’s total earnings come to $4.0 billion by the end of the year, which represents close to a four-fold increase from 2020. The bottom line is expected to further advance towards $15.3 billion by the end of the decade as production and deliveries continue to ramp up across Tesla’s core vehicle sales business, and energy generation and storage systems sales unit.</p><p><blockquote>最后，通过保持我们之前报道的预计成本结构不变，我们对特斯拉今年年底总收入的修订预测将达到 40 亿美元，比 2020 年增长近四倍。随着特斯拉核心汽车销售业务以及能源发电和存储系统销售部门的生产和交付量持续增长，预计到本十年末，利润将进一步达到 153 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d5d9e6c27ac07963cba69d733c04ac2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Projections:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i. 基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79112498dff0283b72ce0abbd583e41a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>TSLA Stock Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉股票估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e61463f7f99b1028ae14f666a0a40a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Consistent with recent developments regarding Tesla’s improved fundamentals from softer supply chain impacts and recovering China sales, we have upped our 12-month price target for the stock to $805.20. Considering our price target approximates Tesla’s current share price levels, we remain hold-rated on the stock ahead of its upcoming earnings release.</p><p><blockquote>最近，由于供应链影响减弱和中国销售复苏，特斯拉基本面有所改善，因此我们将该股的 12 个月目标价上调至 805.20 美元。考虑到我们的目标价与特斯拉目前的股价水平相近，在即将发布的财报之前，我们仍维持对该股的持有评级。</blockquote></p><p> The price target is derived from a discounted cash flow analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the forecasted financial information analyzed in earlier sections. The key valuation assumptions applied in the analysis, which includes the exit multiple and WACC used to discount projected future earnings, remain unchanged from our previous coverage. An exit multiple of 73.2x is applied to reflect Tesla’s continued leadership within the industry, as well as its growth prospects compared to industry peers. A WACC of 10.1% is applied to discount Tesla’s projected free cash flows in the valuation analysis, which takes into consideration the company’s current risk profile given its continued reduction of leverage with growing cash flows generated from operations.</p><p><blockquote>价格目标乃根据十年离散期间的贴现现金流量分析，结合前面章节分析的预测财务资料得出。分析中应用的主要估值假设（包括用于贴现预计未来收益的退出倍数和 WACC）与我们之前的覆盖范围保持不变。73.2 倍的退出倍数反映了特斯拉在行业内的持续领导地位，以及与行业同行相比的增长前景。在估值分析中，10.1% 的 WACC 用于贴现特斯拉的预计自由现金流，该分析考虑了公司当前的风险状况，因为随着运营产生的现金流不断增长，杠杆率不断降低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估值分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31d7c6ee0f8aa921cdb246f73fd5197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>ii.敏感性分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94665f6f0d97a11544d25abc5a893de6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"185\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite a big quarter for the EV maker, nothing material has changed from a valuation perspective. Tesla is already one of the largest automakers by market cap, which inches close to the total size of the most reputable legacy automakers in the U.S. and Europe combined. Yet, Tesla’s ranking by vehicle sales volume sits at 18th place, which indicates that any improvements to its fundamentals from existing operations, ranging from car sales and related add-on services, to energy generation and storage solutions including its Supercharging network, have already been priced into its current valuation. On this basis, new material catalysts would be required to catapult Tesla’s already sky-high valuation to newer heights. And one of these material changing catalysts would likely include the ultimate rollout of level 4 and level 5 full autonomous driving technology and robotaxis, which continues to be delayed and hampered with increasing regulatory scrutiny.</p><p><blockquote>尽管这家电动汽车制造商的季度业绩很大，但从估值角度来看，没有任何实质性变化。按市值计算，特斯拉已经是最大的汽车制造商之一，接近美国最负盛名的传统汽车制造商的总规模。和欧洲的总和。然而，特斯拉的汽车销量排名第 18 位，这表明其基本面的任何改善，从现有业务（从汽车销售和相关附加服务到包括超级充电网络在内的能源生产和存储解决方案），都已计入其当前估值。在此基础上，需要新的材料催化剂将特斯拉已经天价的估值推向新的高度。这些材料变化催化剂之一可能包括 4 级和 5 级全自动驾驶技术以及 robotaxis 的最终推出，但随着监管审查的增加，这将继续被推迟和阻碍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Musk had originally committed to the commercial deployment of Tesla robotaxis by the end of 2020. Yet, only an advanced “Autopilot” driver-assistance system and a beta version of its “full self-driving” (“FSD”) have been released so far, with the latter being limited to a selective group of users that have metspecific driving behaviour requirements. Meanwhile, others in the race to autonomous mobility, including Alphabet’s Waymo, GM’s Cruise, and Intel’s Mobileye, have already launched, or slated to launch within the next 12 months, pilot programs across the U.S., Europe and Israel. The delays have been further exacerbated by increasing regulatory scrutiny over the safety and effectiveness of Tesla’s self-driving technology. In the latest turn of events regarding the NHTSA’s ongoing probe on whether Tesla’s Autopilot is defective following reports of multiple crashes involving emergency vehicles, the regulatory agency has demanded a legal and technical explanation from the EV maker on how and why an over-the-air update is sufficient to patch the fix as opposed to a recall. The NHTSA currently requires an official recall notice be filed to the agency by automakers looking to patch over-the-air updates as a mean to mitigate software defects that could pose a risk to vehicle safety. Tesla has also been requested by the regulatory body to provide details on its timeline for the commercial roll out of FSD, as well as the list of buyers of the $10,000 add-on service. Considering the series of high profile regulatory scrutiny over Tesla’s full self-driving technology, it remains unclear on how soon the EV maker can achieve its robotaxi aspirations, which makes the extension of even higher valuation prospects a difficult decision to justify at the moment.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克最初承诺在2020年底前实现特斯拉机器人出租车的商业部署。然而，到目前为止，只发布了先进的“自动驾驶”驾驶辅助系统及其“全自动驾驶”（“FSD”）的测试版，后者仅限于具有特定驾驶行为要求的选择性用户群体。与此同时，包括Alphabet的 Waymo、通用汽车的 Cruise 和英特尔的 Mobileye 在内的其他自动驾驶汽车公司已经在美国、欧洲和以色列启动或计划在未来 12 个月内启动试点项目。监管机构对特斯拉自动驾驶技术安全性和有效性的审查日益严格，进一步加剧了延误。在接到多起涉及应急车辆的撞车事故报告后，美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）正在对特斯拉的自动驾驶仪是否存在缺陷进行调查，该监管机构要求这家电动汽车制造商做出法律和技术解释，说明空中更新如何以及为什么足以修补问题，而不是召回。NHTSA 目前要求希望修补无线更新的汽车制造商向该机构提交正式召回通知，以减轻可能对车辆安全构成风险的软件缺陷。监管机构还要求特斯拉提供 FSD 商业推广时间表的详细信息，以及 10,000 美元附加服务的买家名单。考虑到监管机构对特斯拉全自动驾驶技术的一系列备受瞩目的审查，这家电动汽车制造商多久能实现其机器人出租车的愿望仍不明朗，这使得延长更高的估值前景目前很难做出合理的决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s stock price is likely to remain elevated in the immediate term as the company’s earnings release for Q3 draws near. Better-than-expected delivery volumes amidst a dire situation across the broader automotive sector due to overhanging supply chain constraints have boosted investors’ expectations for another round of record-setting earnings from Tesla this quarter. Yet, the sentiment is expected to moderate as soon as the actual financial results are out, driving the stock price back towards the high-$700 to $800 level considering it is already being traded at levels as if strong fundamentals have been priced in. As such, our stance remains neutral on the stock ahead of its upcoming release of third quarter results.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉第三季度财报的临近，该公司的股价在短期内可能会保持高位。由于供应链限制悬而未决，整个汽车行业形势严峻，但交付量好于预期，这提高了投资者对特斯拉本季度新一轮创纪录盈利的预期。然而，一旦实际财务业绩公布，市场情绪预计将有所缓和，考虑到股价已经处于强劲基本面已被消化的水平，股价将回到 700 至 800 美元的高位。因此，在即将发布的第三季度业绩之前，我们对该股的立场保持中立。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Tesla Stock A Buy Or Sell Before Upcoming Earnings?<blockquote>在即将发布的财报之前，特斯拉股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Tesla Stock A Buy Or Sell Before Upcoming Earnings?<blockquote>在即将发布的财报之前，特斯拉股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-19 10:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Earlier this month, Tesla released Q3 global delivery volumes of 241,300 vehicles, a record for the electric vehicle titan.</li> <li>The figures set stage for better-than-expected Q3 earnings results, which is slated for release in a couple of days.</li> <li>Investors have responded positively to the news, catapulting the stock past the $800 mark over the past week.</li> <li>The stock price will likely remain elevated ahead of Tesla's upcoming release of Q3 financial results. However, the sentiment-driven uptick is expected to dial back towards the high-$700 to $800 level shortly after to reflect Tesla's renewed intrinsic value on improved fundamentals.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05ae7d88ff7a98961733633ea30e5503\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1101\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本月早些时候，特斯拉公布第三季度全球交付量为 241,300 辆，创下了电动汽车巨头的纪录。</li><li>这些数据为好于预期的第三季度盈利结果奠定了基础，该结果预计将在几天内发布。</li><li>投资者对这一消息做出了积极反应，该股在过去一周突破了 800 美元大关。</li><li>在特斯拉即将发布第三季度财务业绩之前，股价可能会保持高位。然而，情绪驱动的上涨预计将在不久后回落至 700 美元至 800 美元的高位，以反映特斯拉因基本面改善而更新的内在价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla's(NASDAQ:TSLA)stockhas been on a steady uptrend since May, gaining almost 50% as rising global electric vehicle (“EV”) demand continues to underpin record-setting sales growth for the automaker. Tesla’s recent release of record-setting deliveries of 241,300 vehicles worldwide for the third quarter has gotten investors eyeing better-than-expected results at the upcoming earnings call. Paired with an overall improvement in market sentiment following recent reports of bottoming initial unemployment benefit claims and slowing producer price increases, which have assuaged fears of inflation eroding economic recovery, the stock has been further catapulted past the $800 mark with strong upward momentum over the past week.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）的股价自 5 月份以来一直处于稳步上升趋势，随着全球电动汽车 (“EV”) 需求的增长继续支撑该汽车制造商创纪录的销售增长，股价上涨了近 50%。特斯拉最近公布的第三季度全球交付量达到创纪录的 24.13 万辆，这让投资者开始关注即将举行的财报看涨期权好于预期的业绩。最近有报道称首次申请失业救济人数触底，生产者价格上涨放缓，市场情绪整体改善，缓解了对通胀侵蚀经济复苏的担忧，该股在过去一周以强劲的上涨势头进一步突破 800 美元大关。</blockquote></p><p> The stock will likely continue to benefit from an immediate boost considering improved investor sentiment stemming from expectations for upbeat results at the upcoming earnings call. But despite a strong quarter that points to a continued competitive advantage in managing ongoing operational pressures from supply chain constraints and accelerating global EV demand, the stock’s current price levels are already reflective of the company’s projected intrinsic value. While Tesla continues to improve from a fundamental point of view with continued outperforming sales across the board, new material catalysts would be required to sustain further expansion from a valuation standpoint. On this basis, we remain hold-rated on the stock ahead of Tesla’s upcoming earnings release, with a revised 12-month price target of $806.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到投资者对即将举行的财报看涨期权乐观结果的预期改善了投资者情绪，该股可能会继续受益于即将到来的提振。不过，尽管本季度表现强劲，表明在管理供应链限制和全球电动汽车需求加速带来的持续运营压力方面继续具有竞争优势，但该股目前的价格水平已经反映了公司的预计内在价值。虽然从基本面来看，特斯拉持续向好，销售持续全面跑赢大盘，但从估值角度来看，需要新材料催化剂来维持进一步扩张。在此基础上，在特斯拉即将发布的财报之前，我们维持对该股的持有评级，修订后的 12 个月目标价为 806 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Better-Than-Expected Q3 Delivery Volumes and What It Implies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度交付量好于预期及其意味着什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite a severely constrained supply of semiconductors and other supply chain chaos like congested ports, Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in the third quarter. The quarter marks Tesla’s best one yet, while also surpassing the average consensus estimate and Tesla guide for global deliveries of 223,677 vehicles and 221,952 vehicles, respectively. The results were a testament to Tesla’s exceptional handling of the ongoing chip supply crisis and logistical constraints, which continue to be a major overhang on the automotive sector. Even Volkswagen, one of Tesla’s strongest competitors, has openly complimented on the EV maker’s ability in leveraging proprietary software it had developed to enable compatibility with different suppliers’ chips as an “impressive” mean in navigating swiftly through the crisis.</p><p><blockquote>尽管半导体供应严重受限，港口拥堵等其他供应链混乱，特斯拉第三季度在全球交付了241,300辆汽车。本季度是特斯拉迄今为止最好的一个季度，同时也超过了全球交付量的平均共识估计值和特斯拉指南，分别为 223,677 辆和 221,952 辆。这一结果证明了特斯拉对持续存在的芯片供应危机和物流限制的出色处理，而这些问题仍然是汽车行业的一大突出问题。就连特斯拉最强劲的竞争对手之一大众汽车也公开称赞这家电动汽车制造商能够利用其开发的专有软件与不同供应商的芯片兼容，这是迅速度过危机的 “令人印象深刻 ”手段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Improved China Sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>改善中国销售</b></blockquote></p><p> Of the 241,300 vehicles delivered, more than 73,000 vehicles were attributable to local sales in China. Tesla delivered 56,006 vehicles produced from its Shanghai manufacturing plant in the month of September alone, with only 3,853 of which were exported to Europe. The results are a turnaround from depressed second quarter and July sales in the largest and fastest-growing EV market in the world, following a slew of negative press ranging from the April protest at the Shanghai Auto Show to the June recall of almost every Tesla vehicle sold in China due to a flaw in the vehicles’ active cruise control feature. It is also a sign that Tesla has been and continues to be doing just fine, if not even better, in satisfying robust demand from the Chinese market, despite rising competition from domestic peers like NIO (NYSE:NIO),Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) and XPeng (NYSE:XPEV).</p><p><blockquote>在交付的241,300辆汽车中，超过73,000辆来自中国本地销售。仅 9 月份，特斯拉上海制造厂生产的汽车就交付了 56,006 辆，其中只有 3,853 辆出口到欧洲。在这个全球最大、增长最快的电动汽车市场，第二季度和 7 月份销量低迷的情况出现了转机。在此之前，从 4 月份上海车展上的抗议活动到 6 月份几乎所有在华销售的特斯拉汽车都因车辆的主动巡航控制功能存在缺陷而被召回，一系列负面新闻纷至沓来。这也表明，尽管来自蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）、理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）等国内同行的竞争日益激烈，但特斯拉在满足中国市场的强劲需求方面一直并将继续做得很好，甚至更好。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With China’s new car sales down 17% in September and 13% in the entire third quarter due to a prolonged lack of chips, Tesla’s record-setting deliveries in the region further corroborates its strength in keeping related impacts at bay and under control. Although Elon Musk has continued to blame the “global shortage of chips and ships” as the biggest roadblock to maintaining sales growth of more than 50%, Tesla has fared the best amongst its peers, which will likely continue to reel from supply bottlenecks through to the end of 2022. The China Machinery Industry Federation has recently estimated two million fewer vehicles produced in China this year. The same narrative applies on the global sale, with a recently revised estimate on the quantified impact of ongoing chip supply shortages for the global automotive sector jumping to $210 billion, equivalent to 7.7 million fewer vehicles produced compared to a previous forecast of 3.9 million vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>由于长期缺乏芯片，中国 9 月份新车销量下降了 17%，整个第三季度下降了 13%，特斯拉在该地区创纪录的交付量进一步证实了其在控制相关影响方面的实力。尽管埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）继续指责 “全球芯片和船舶短缺 ”是维持 50% 以上销售增长的最大障碍，但特斯拉在同行中表现最好，很可能会继续摆脱供应瓶颈，直到 2022 年底。中国机械工业联合会最近估计，今年中国汽车产量将减少200万辆。同样的说法也适用于全球销售，最近修订的对全球汽车行业持续芯片供应短缺的量化影响的估计跃升至 2100 亿美元，相当于比之前预测的 390 万辆减少了 770 万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> <b>High-Margin Model 3/Y Sales Leading the Way</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高利润 Model 3/Y 销量领先</b></blockquote></p><p> As a pioneer and leader of the industry, Tesla remains a closely watched gauge for global EV adoption rates. Model 3 and Model Y sales accounted for more than 96% of third quarter deliveries. As the lower priced, higher-margin models, the Model 3 and Model Y were made to better appeal to mass market demand. The China-made Model Y boasts a competitive price tag of under $53,000, but earns a profit margin of close to 30% for Tesla, while the industry average hovers at only 8% to 10%. And now, with Model 3 and Model Y sales leading the way, not only do Tesla’s fundamentals benefit from better margins, but the trend also underpins rapid global EV adoption and robust demand for new energy vehicles around the world. This further corroborates the promising growth trajectory of Tesla’s core vehicle sales unit from a fundamental standpoint.</p><p><blockquote>作为该行业的先驱和领导者，特斯拉仍然是全球电动汽车采用率备受关注的指标。Model 3 和 Model Y 销量占第三季度交付量的 96% 以上。作为价格较低、利润较高的车型，Model 3 和 Model Y 旨在更好地吸引大众市场需求。中国制造的Model Y拥有不到53,000美元的有竞争力的价格，但特斯拉的利润率接近30%，而行业平均水平仅为8%至10%。现在，随着 Model 3 和 Model Y 的销量领先，特斯拉的基本面不仅受益于更高的利润率，而且这一趋势也支撑了全球电动汽车的快速普及和全球对新能源汽车的强劲需求。这从基本面上进一步印证了特斯拉核心汽车销售部门的良好增长轨迹。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revised Revenue Projections on an Improved Vehicle Sales Outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>由于汽车销售前景改善，修订了收入预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Adjusting our previous forecast for Tesla’s better-than-expected vehicle sales outlook for the rest of the year, considering milder impacts from global supply chain constraints and improved global EV demand, our base case projections estimate total automotive revenues of $44.5 billion by the end of the year. Meanwhile, we have maintained the long-term growth assumption for Tesla’s automotive sales at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 20.1% towards $170.4 billion in revenues by 2030, which is consistent with current market expectations on global EV demand going into the next decade. The growth assumption also takes into consideration Tesla’s expanded production capacity with the new Berlin and Texas manufacturing plants coming online later this year to satisfy the continued surge of demand for EVs. The Berlin plant, in particular, is expected to be gamechanger for the EV maker’s presence in Europe. Tesla’s Shanghai manufacturing facility currently supplies some of the highly demanded Model 3/Y vehicles sold in Europe. But as demand from both the Chinese and European markets continue to surge, the Berlin plant will play a critical role in alleviating any supply bottlenecks and/or logistics challenges pertaining to China exports considering expensive shipping costs and lengthened delivery times from increasingly congested ports. Tesla’s Gigafactory in Berlin is expected to come online as soon as next month, and aims to ramp production capacity up to anywhere between 5,000 and 10,000 vehicles per week by the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到全球供应链限制和全球电动汽车需求改善带来的温和影响，调整了我们之前对特斯拉今年剩余时间汽车销售前景好于预期的预测，我们的基本案例预测预计到今年年底汽车总收入将达到 445 亿美元。与此同时，我们维持了特斯拉汽车销量的长期增长假设，即到 2030 年，复合年增长率 (“CAGR”) 为 20.1%，到 2030 年，收入将达到 1,704 亿美元，这与当前市场对未来十年全球电动汽车需求的预期一致。增长假设还考虑到了特斯拉扩大的产能，新的柏林和德克萨斯制造工厂将于今年晚些时候投产，以满足电动汽车需求的持续增长。尤其是柏林工厂，预计将改变这家电动汽车制造商在欧洲的业务。特斯拉上海制造工厂目前供应一些在欧洲销售的需求量很大的 Model 3/Y 汽车。但随着中国和欧洲市场的需求持续增长，柏林工厂将在缓解与中国出口相关的任何供应瓶颈和/或物流挑战方面发挥关键作用，考虑到昂贵的运输成本和日益拥挤的港口交货时间延长。特斯拉位于柏林的超级工厂预计最快将于下月投产，目标是到明年年底将产能提高到每周 5000 至 10000 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eadc84e6814f5684c9241c1cc0cd380d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, service revenues are expected to grow accordingly as well, considering they are primarily generated from after-sales vehicle services. Our base case forecast projects $4.0 billion by the end of the year, with growth towards $15.0 billion by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，考虑到服务收入主要来自售后服务，预计服务收入也会相应增长。我们的基本案例预测预计到今年年底将达到 40 亿美元，到本十年末将增长至 150 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242db85aead4054611f1bbcbc00d6c04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"271\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Our previous forecast for energy generation and storage revenues remains unchanged, considering Tesla’s continued strategy in prioritizing vehicle productions over energy generation and storage productions in the event of constrained resources:</p><p><blockquote>考虑到特斯拉在资源有限的情况下将汽车生产置于能源发电和存储生产之上的持续战略，我们之前对能源发电和存储收入的预测保持不变：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “Well, by the same token, if we're prioritizing vehicle production, if there's a shortage of cell upward from some reason then we will throttle down Megapack and Powerwall production. So that it could be something's got to give, basically.”Elon Musk,Q2 Earnings Call Energy generation and storage revenues are expected to total $3.1 billion by the end of the year, and further advance at a CAGR of 8.9% towards $4.7 billion by 2030. The growth assumption applied reflects continued pent-up demand for the Megapack, which has already sold out until next year, and the Powerwall, which continues to accumulate a backlog of orders.</p><p><blockquote>“同样，如果我们优先考虑汽车生产，如果由于某种原因导致电池短缺，那么我们就会降低 Megapack 和 Powerwall 的产量。这样，基本上就可以做出一些贡献了。”埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk），第二季度财报 看涨期权能源发电和存储收入预计到今年年底将达到 31 亿美元，到 2030 年将以 8.9% 的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到 47 亿美元。所应用的增长假设反映了对 Megapack 和 Powerwall 的持续被压抑的需求，Megapack 已经售罄到明年，Powerwall 的持续积压订单。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8bffd547eb5b70da9a3346e474cd264\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, by maintaining the projected cost structure unchanged from our previous coverage, our revised forecast on Tesla’s total earnings come to $4.0 billion by the end of the year, which represents close to a four-fold increase from 2020. The bottom line is expected to further advance towards $15.3 billion by the end of the decade as production and deliveries continue to ramp up across Tesla’s core vehicle sales business, and energy generation and storage systems sales unit.</p><p><blockquote>最后，通过保持我们之前报道的预计成本结构不变，我们对特斯拉今年年底总收入的修订预测将达到 40 亿美元，比 2020 年增长近四倍。随着特斯拉核心汽车销售业务以及能源发电和存储系统销售部门的生产和交付量持续增长，预计到本十年末，利润将进一步达到 153 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d5d9e6c27ac07963cba69d733c04ac2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Projections:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i. 基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79112498dff0283b72ce0abbd583e41a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>TSLA Stock Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉股票估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e61463f7f99b1028ae14f666a0a40a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Consistent with recent developments regarding Tesla’s improved fundamentals from softer supply chain impacts and recovering China sales, we have upped our 12-month price target for the stock to $805.20. Considering our price target approximates Tesla’s current share price levels, we remain hold-rated on the stock ahead of its upcoming earnings release.</p><p><blockquote>最近，由于供应链影响减弱和中国销售复苏，特斯拉基本面有所改善，因此我们将该股的 12 个月目标价上调至 805.20 美元。考虑到我们的目标价与特斯拉目前的股价水平相近，在即将发布的财报之前，我们仍维持对该股的持有评级。</blockquote></p><p> The price target is derived from a discounted cash flow analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the forecasted financial information analyzed in earlier sections. The key valuation assumptions applied in the analysis, which includes the exit multiple and WACC used to discount projected future earnings, remain unchanged from our previous coverage. An exit multiple of 73.2x is applied to reflect Tesla’s continued leadership within the industry, as well as its growth prospects compared to industry peers. A WACC of 10.1% is applied to discount Tesla’s projected free cash flows in the valuation analysis, which takes into consideration the company’s current risk profile given its continued reduction of leverage with growing cash flows generated from operations.</p><p><blockquote>价格目标乃根据十年离散期间的贴现现金流量分析，结合前面章节分析的预测财务资料得出。分析中应用的主要估值假设（包括用于贴现预计未来收益的退出倍数和 WACC）与我们之前的覆盖范围保持不变。73.2 倍的退出倍数反映了特斯拉在行业内的持续领导地位，以及与行业同行相比的增长前景。在估值分析中，10.1% 的 WACC 用于贴现特斯拉的预计自由现金流，该分析考虑了公司当前的风险状况，因为随着运营产生的现金流不断增长，杠杆率不断降低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估值分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31d7c6ee0f8aa921cdb246f73fd5197\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>ii.敏感性分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94665f6f0d97a11544d25abc5a893de6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"185\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite a big quarter for the EV maker, nothing material has changed from a valuation perspective. Tesla is already one of the largest automakers by market cap, which inches close to the total size of the most reputable legacy automakers in the U.S. and Europe combined. Yet, Tesla’s ranking by vehicle sales volume sits at 18th place, which indicates that any improvements to its fundamentals from existing operations, ranging from car sales and related add-on services, to energy generation and storage solutions including its Supercharging network, have already been priced into its current valuation. On this basis, new material catalysts would be required to catapult Tesla’s already sky-high valuation to newer heights. And one of these material changing catalysts would likely include the ultimate rollout of level 4 and level 5 full autonomous driving technology and robotaxis, which continues to be delayed and hampered with increasing regulatory scrutiny.</p><p><blockquote>尽管这家电动汽车制造商的季度业绩很大，但从估值角度来看，没有任何实质性变化。按市值计算，特斯拉已经是最大的汽车制造商之一，接近美国最负盛名的传统汽车制造商的总规模。和欧洲的总和。然而，特斯拉的汽车销量排名第 18 位，这表明其基本面的任何改善，从现有业务（从汽车销售和相关附加服务到包括超级充电网络在内的能源生产和存储解决方案），都已计入其当前估值。在此基础上，需要新的材料催化剂将特斯拉已经天价的估值推向新的高度。这些材料变化催化剂之一可能包括 4 级和 5 级全自动驾驶技术以及 robotaxis 的最终推出，但随着监管审查的增加，这将继续被推迟和阻碍。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Musk had originally committed to the commercial deployment of Tesla robotaxis by the end of 2020. Yet, only an advanced “Autopilot” driver-assistance system and a beta version of its “full self-driving” (“FSD”) have been released so far, with the latter being limited to a selective group of users that have metspecific driving behaviour requirements. Meanwhile, others in the race to autonomous mobility, including Alphabet’s Waymo, GM’s Cruise, and Intel’s Mobileye, have already launched, or slated to launch within the next 12 months, pilot programs across the U.S., Europe and Israel. The delays have been further exacerbated by increasing regulatory scrutiny over the safety and effectiveness of Tesla’s self-driving technology. In the latest turn of events regarding the NHTSA’s ongoing probe on whether Tesla’s Autopilot is defective following reports of multiple crashes involving emergency vehicles, the regulatory agency has demanded a legal and technical explanation from the EV maker on how and why an over-the-air update is sufficient to patch the fix as opposed to a recall. The NHTSA currently requires an official recall notice be filed to the agency by automakers looking to patch over-the-air updates as a mean to mitigate software defects that could pose a risk to vehicle safety. Tesla has also been requested by the regulatory body to provide details on its timeline for the commercial roll out of FSD, as well as the list of buyers of the $10,000 add-on service. Considering the series of high profile regulatory scrutiny over Tesla’s full self-driving technology, it remains unclear on how soon the EV maker can achieve its robotaxi aspirations, which makes the extension of even higher valuation prospects a difficult decision to justify at the moment.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克最初承诺在2020年底前实现特斯拉机器人出租车的商业部署。然而，到目前为止，只发布了先进的“自动驾驶”驾驶辅助系统及其“全自动驾驶”（“FSD”）的测试版，后者仅限于具有特定驾驶行为要求的选择性用户群体。与此同时，包括Alphabet的 Waymo、通用汽车的 Cruise 和英特尔的 Mobileye 在内的其他自动驾驶汽车公司已经在美国、欧洲和以色列启动或计划在未来 12 个月内启动试点项目。监管机构对特斯拉自动驾驶技术安全性和有效性的审查日益严格，进一步加剧了延误。在接到多起涉及应急车辆的撞车事故报告后，美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）正在对特斯拉的自动驾驶仪是否存在缺陷进行调查，该监管机构要求这家电动汽车制造商做出法律和技术解释，说明空中更新如何以及为什么足以修补问题，而不是召回。NHTSA 目前要求希望修补无线更新的汽车制造商向该机构提交正式召回通知，以减轻可能对车辆安全构成风险的软件缺陷。监管机构还要求特斯拉提供 FSD 商业推广时间表的详细信息，以及 10,000 美元附加服务的买家名单。考虑到监管机构对特斯拉全自动驾驶技术的一系列备受瞩目的审查，这家电动汽车制造商多久能实现其机器人出租车的愿望仍不明朗，这使得延长更高的估值前景目前很难做出合理的决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s stock price is likely to remain elevated in the immediate term as the company’s earnings release for Q3 draws near. Better-than-expected delivery volumes amidst a dire situation across the broader automotive sector due to overhanging supply chain constraints have boosted investors’ expectations for another round of record-setting earnings from Tesla this quarter. Yet, the sentiment is expected to moderate as soon as the actual financial results are out, driving the stock price back towards the high-$700 to $800 level considering it is already being traded at levels as if strong fundamentals have been priced in. As such, our stance remains neutral on the stock ahead of its upcoming release of third quarter results.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉第三季度财报的临近，该公司的股价在短期内可能会保持高位。由于供应链限制悬而未决，整个汽车行业形势严峻，但交付量好于预期，这提高了投资者对特斯拉本季度新一轮创纪录盈利的预期。然而，一旦实际财务业绩公布，市场情绪预计将有所缓和，考虑到股价已经处于强劲基本面已被消化的水平，股价将回到 700 至 800 美元的高位。因此，在即将发布的第三季度业绩之前，我们对该股的立场保持中立。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460453-tesla-stock-buy-sell-upcoming-earnings\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460453-tesla-stock-buy-sell-upcoming-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122978319","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarlier this month, Tesla released Q3 global delivery volumes of 241,300 vehicles, a record for the electric vehicle titan.\nThe figures set stage for better-than-expected Q3 earnings results, which is slated for release in a couple of days.\nInvestors have responded positively to the news, catapulting the stock past the $800 mark over the past week.\nThe stock price will likely remain elevated ahead of Tesla's upcoming release of Q3 financial results. However, the sentiment-driven uptick is expected to dial back towards the high-$700 to $800 level shortly after to reflect Tesla's renewed intrinsic value on improved fundamentals.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nTesla's(NASDAQ:TSLA)stockhas been on a steady uptrend since May, gaining almost 50% as rising global electric vehicle (“EV”) demand continues to underpin record-setting sales growth for the automaker. Tesla’s recent release of record-setting deliveries of 241,300 vehicles worldwide for the third quarter has gotten investors eyeing better-than-expected results at the upcoming earnings call. Paired with an overall improvement in market sentiment following recent reports of bottoming initial unemployment benefit claims and slowing producer price increases, which have assuaged fears of inflation eroding economic recovery, the stock has been further catapulted past the $800 mark with strong upward momentum over the past week.\nThe stock will likely continue to benefit from an immediate boost considering improved investor sentiment stemming from expectations for upbeat results at the upcoming earnings call. But despite a strong quarter that points to a continued competitive advantage in managing ongoing operational pressures from supply chain constraints and accelerating global EV demand, the stock’s current price levels are already reflective of the company’s projected intrinsic value. While Tesla continues to improve from a fundamental point of view with continued outperforming sales across the board, new material catalysts would be required to sustain further expansion from a valuation standpoint. On this basis, we remain hold-rated on the stock ahead of Tesla’s upcoming earnings release, with a revised 12-month price target of $806.\nBetter-Than-Expected Q3 Delivery Volumes and What It Implies\nDespite a severely constrained supply of semiconductors and other supply chain chaos like congested ports, Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in the third quarter. The quarter marks Tesla’s best one yet, while also surpassing the average consensus estimate and Tesla guide for global deliveries of 223,677 vehicles and 221,952 vehicles, respectively. The results were a testament to Tesla’s exceptional handling of the ongoing chip supply crisis and logistical constraints, which continue to be a major overhang on the automotive sector. Even Volkswagen, one of Tesla’s strongest competitors, has openly complimented on the EV maker’s ability in leveraging proprietary software it had developed to enable compatibility with different suppliers’ chips as an “impressive” mean in navigating swiftly through the crisis.\nImproved China Sales\nOf the 241,300 vehicles delivered, more than 73,000 vehicles were attributable to local sales in China. Tesla delivered 56,006 vehicles produced from its Shanghai manufacturing plant in the month of September alone, with only 3,853 of which were exported to Europe. The results are a turnaround from depressed second quarter and July sales in the largest and fastest-growing EV market in the world, following a slew of negative press ranging from the April protest at the Shanghai Auto Show to the June recall of almost every Tesla vehicle sold in China due to a flaw in the vehicles’ active cruise control feature. It is also a sign that Tesla has been and continues to be doing just fine, if not even better, in satisfying robust demand from the Chinese market, despite rising competition from domestic peers like NIO (NYSE:NIO),Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) and XPeng (NYSE:XPEV).\nWith China’s new car sales down 17% in September and 13% in the entire third quarter due to a prolonged lack of chips, Tesla’s record-setting deliveries in the region further corroborates its strength in keeping related impacts at bay and under control. Although Elon Musk has continued to blame the “global shortage of chips and ships” as the biggest roadblock to maintaining sales growth of more than 50%, Tesla has fared the best amongst its peers, which will likely continue to reel from supply bottlenecks through to the end of 2022. The China Machinery Industry Federation has recently estimated two million fewer vehicles produced in China this year. The same narrative applies on the global sale, with a recently revised estimate on the quantified impact of ongoing chip supply shortages for the global automotive sector jumping to $210 billion, equivalent to 7.7 million fewer vehicles produced compared to a previous forecast of 3.9 million vehicles.\nHigh-Margin Model 3/Y Sales Leading the Way\nAs a pioneer and leader of the industry, Tesla remains a closely watched gauge for global EV adoption rates. Model 3 and Model Y sales accounted for more than 96% of third quarter deliveries. As the lower priced, higher-margin models, the Model 3 and Model Y were made to better appeal to mass market demand. The China-made Model Y boasts a competitive price tag of under $53,000, but earns a profit margin of close to 30% for Tesla, while the industry average hovers at only 8% to 10%. And now, with Model 3 and Model Y sales leading the way, not only do Tesla’s fundamentals benefit from better margins, but the trend also underpins rapid global EV adoption and robust demand for new energy vehicles around the world. This further corroborates the promising growth trajectory of Tesla’s core vehicle sales unit from a fundamental standpoint.\nRevised Revenue Projections on an Improved Vehicle Sales Outlook\nAdjusting our previous forecast for Tesla’s better-than-expected vehicle sales outlook for the rest of the year, considering milder impacts from global supply chain constraints and improved global EV demand, our base case projections estimate total automotive revenues of $44.5 billion by the end of the year. Meanwhile, we have maintained the long-term growth assumption for Tesla’s automotive sales at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 20.1% towards $170.4 billion in revenues by 2030, which is consistent with current market expectations on global EV demand going into the next decade. The growth assumption also takes into consideration Tesla’s expanded production capacity with the new Berlin and Texas manufacturing plants coming online later this year to satisfy the continued surge of demand for EVs. The Berlin plant, in particular, is expected to be gamechanger for the EV maker’s presence in Europe. Tesla’s Shanghai manufacturing facility currently supplies some of the highly demanded Model 3/Y vehicles sold in Europe. But as demand from both the Chinese and European markets continue to surge, the Berlin plant will play a critical role in alleviating any supply bottlenecks and/or logistics challenges pertaining to China exports considering expensive shipping costs and lengthened delivery times from increasingly congested ports. Tesla’s Gigafactory in Berlin is expected to come online as soon as next month, and aims to ramp production capacity up to anywhere between 5,000 and 10,000 vehicles per week by the end of next year.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts\nOn the other hand, service revenues are expected to grow accordingly as well, considering they are primarily generated from after-sales vehicle services. Our base case forecast projects $4.0 billion by the end of the year, with growth towards $15.0 billion by the end of the decade.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nOur previous forecast for energy generation and storage revenues remains unchanged, considering Tesla’s continued strategy in prioritizing vehicle productions over energy generation and storage productions in the event of constrained resources:\n\n “Well, by the same token, if we're prioritizing vehicle production, if there's a shortage of cell upward from some reason then we will throttle down Megapack and Powerwall production. So that it could be something's got to give, basically.”Elon Musk,Q2 Earnings Call\n\nEnergy generation and storage revenues are expected to total $3.1 billion by the end of the year, and further advance at a CAGR of 8.9% towards $4.7 billion by 2030. The growth assumption applied reflects continued pent-up demand for the Megapack, which has already sold out until next year, and the Powerwall, which continues to accumulate a backlog of orders.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nLastly, by maintaining the projected cost structure unchanged from our previous coverage, our revised forecast on Tesla’s total earnings come to $4.0 billion by the end of the year, which represents close to a four-fold increase from 2020. The bottom line is expected to further advance towards $15.3 billion by the end of the decade as production and deliveries continue to ramp up across Tesla’s core vehicle sales business, and energy generation and storage systems sales unit.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts.\nTSLA Stock Valuation\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConsistent with recent developments regarding Tesla’s improved fundamentals from softer supply chain impacts and recovering China sales, we have upped our 12-month price target for the stock to $805.20. Considering our price target approximates Tesla’s current share price levels, we remain hold-rated on the stock ahead of its upcoming earnings release.\nThe price target is derived from a discounted cash flow analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the forecasted financial information analyzed in earlier sections. The key valuation assumptions applied in the analysis, which includes the exit multiple and WACC used to discount projected future earnings, remain unchanged from our previous coverage. An exit multiple of 73.2x is applied to reflect Tesla’s continued leadership within the industry, as well as its growth prospects compared to industry peers. A WACC of 10.1% is applied to discount Tesla’s projected free cash flows in the valuation analysis, which takes into consideration the company’s current risk profile given its continued reduction of leverage with growing cash flows generated from operations.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nii. Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nDespite a big quarter for the EV maker, nothing material has changed from a valuation perspective. Tesla is already one of the largest automakers by market cap, which inches close to the total size of the most reputable legacy automakers in the U.S. and Europe combined. Yet, Tesla’s ranking by vehicle sales volume sits at 18th place, which indicates that any improvements to its fundamentals from existing operations, ranging from car sales and related add-on services, to energy generation and storage solutions including its Supercharging network, have already been priced into its current valuation. On this basis, new material catalysts would be required to catapult Tesla’s already sky-high valuation to newer heights. And one of these material changing catalysts would likely include the ultimate rollout of level 4 and level 5 full autonomous driving technology and robotaxis, which continues to be delayed and hampered with increasing regulatory scrutiny.\nMusk had originally committed to the commercial deployment of Tesla robotaxis by the end of 2020. Yet, only an advanced “Autopilot” driver-assistance system and a beta version of its “full self-driving” (“FSD”) have been released so far, with the latter being limited to a selective group of users that have metspecific driving behaviour requirements. Meanwhile, others in the race to autonomous mobility, including Alphabet’s Waymo, GM’s Cruise, and Intel’s Mobileye, have already launched, or slated to launch within the next 12 months, pilot programs across the U.S., Europe and Israel. The delays have been further exacerbated by increasing regulatory scrutiny over the safety and effectiveness of Tesla’s self-driving technology. In the latest turn of events regarding the NHTSA’s ongoing probe on whether Tesla’s Autopilot is defective following reports of multiple crashes involving emergency vehicles, the regulatory agency has demanded a legal and technical explanation from the EV maker on how and why an over-the-air update is sufficient to patch the fix as opposed to a recall. The NHTSA currently requires an official recall notice be filed to the agency by automakers looking to patch over-the-air updates as a mean to mitigate software defects that could pose a risk to vehicle safety. Tesla has also been requested by the regulatory body to provide details on its timeline for the commercial roll out of FSD, as well as the list of buyers of the $10,000 add-on service. Considering the series of high profile regulatory scrutiny over Tesla’s full self-driving technology, it remains unclear on how soon the EV maker can achieve its robotaxi aspirations, which makes the extension of even higher valuation prospects a difficult decision to justify at the moment.\nConclusion\nTesla’s stock price is likely to remain elevated in the immediate term as the company’s earnings release for Q3 draws near. Better-than-expected delivery volumes amidst a dire situation across the broader automotive sector due to overhanging supply chain constraints have boosted investors’ expectations for another round of record-setting earnings from Tesla this quarter. Yet, the sentiment is expected to moderate as soon as the actual financial results are out, driving the stock price back towards the high-$700 to $800 level considering it is already being traded at levels as if strong fundamentals have been priced in. As such, our stance remains neutral on the stock ahead of its upcoming release of third quarter results.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2444,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":15,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/850573504"}
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