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2021-11-01

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Apple: Great Reset<blockquote>苹果：大重置</blockquote>

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The company benefitted substantially from the COVID lockdowns pushing workers and students into buying technology gadgets for the home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;remains Neutral on the stock until the market has reset exceptions on Apple to the reality of a slow growth behemoth.<blockquote>在公布了令人非常失望的 9 月份季度业绩后，苹果（AAPL）投资者现在必须重新看待这家科技巨头。该公司从新冠疫情封锁中受益匪浅，迫使工人和学生为家庭购买科技产品。我的投资论点对该股保持中立，直到市场将苹果的例外情况重置为增长缓慢的庞然大物的现实。</blockquote> Normalization Reset<blockquote>归一化复位</blockquote> Despite wide knowledge that revenues were pulled forward during the last FY, 5G iPhones were pushed into the year and supply chain issues will constrain current results, the average analyst is still very bullish on Apple. Even with all of these acknowledged headwinds, the stock still trades near all-time highs around $150.<blockquote>尽管众所周知，上一财年的收入有所提升，5G iPhone 被推迟到今年，供应链问题将限制当前的业绩，但普通分析师仍然非常看好苹果。即使存在所有这些公认的不利因素，该股的交易价格仍接近 150 美元左右的历史高点。</blockquote> For FQ4'21, Apple&nbsp;missed analyst&nbsp;revenue targets by a wide $1.6 billion for the first quarterly miss since 2017. The tech giant saw most Product categories miss estimates, but the main issue with iPhone revenues missing the consensus $68.7 billion target by a large $3.6 billion. Most important, the quarter was already the last one with massive pulled forward revenues combined with the 5G iPhone benefit, as the big miss still corresponded with revenue growing 29%.<blockquote>2021 年第四季度，苹果与分析师收入目标相差 16 亿美元，这是自 2017 年以来的首次季度未达标。这家科技巨头的大多数产品类别都没有达到预期，但主要问题是 iPhone 收入比共识的 687 亿美元目标差了 36 亿美元。最重要的是，本季度已经是最后一个收入大幅提前以及 5G iPhone 优势的季度，因为大失误仍然对应于收入增长 29%。</blockquote> The quarterly revenues were even impacted by supply constraints hitting the September quarter numbers. Per CFO Luca Maestri on the&nbsp;FQ4'21 earnings call, the impact will be far higher in the current quarter:<blockquote>季度收入甚至受到 9 月份季度数据的供应限制的影响。根据首席财务官 Luca Maestri 在 2021 年第四季度盈利看涨期权中的说法，本季度的影响将大得多：</blockquote> As we mentioned earlier, during the September quarter, supply constraints impacted our revenue by around $6 billion. We estimate the impact from supply constraints will be larger during the December quarter. Despite this challenge, we are seeing high demands for our products and expect to achieve very solid year-over-year revenue growth and to set a new revenue record during the December quarter. Now, this revenue pushed out into FY22 does help results going forward. Apple would've had a far higher hurdle this year with the September quarter results being a massive blowout number reaching topping $89 billion. The company would've reported FY21 sales of $372 billion and those $6 billion in sales wouldn't help the FY22 results. The actual results for the year would be much closer to breakeven at $373 billion compared to the forecasts for nearly 4% growth.<blockquote>正如我们之前提到的，在 9 月份季度，供应限制影响了我们约 60 亿美元的收入。我们预计 12 月份季度供应限制的影响将会更大。尽管面临这一挑战，我们仍然看到对我们产品的高需求，并预计在 12 月份季度实现非常稳健的收入同比增长，并创下新的收入记录。现在，这笔收入推入 2022 财年确实有助于未来的业绩。苹果今年将面临更高的障碍，9 月份季度业绩将是一个巨大的井喷数字，达到 890 亿美元。该公司报告的 2021 财年销售额为 3720 亿美元，而这 60 亿美元的销售额无助于 2022 财年的业绩。与近4%的增长预测相比，今年的实际业绩将更接近收支平衡，达到3730亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9996ab9668ee4c5755ead167b0c9298\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"94\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: SA earnings estimates<blockquote>资料来源：SA 盈利预测</blockquote> Even still, the forecast is for a strong December quarter followed my miserable quarterly numbers in at least the March and June quarters. Anyone looking at a 10-year revenue chart for Apple will quickly recognize the massive revenue pulled froward. Apple already has a history of volatile revenues due iPhone product cycles with a period of 25% growth around the FY15 iPhone launch followed by negative growth in FY16. The pattern was again repeated in FY19 where Apple reported limited growth the year after the FY18 iPhone boost.<blockquote>即便如此，继我至少在 3 月和 6 月季度糟糕的季度数据之后，预测 12 月季度将表现强劲。任何查看苹果 10 年收入图表的人都会很快认识到巨大的收入。由于 iPhone 产品周期，苹果的收入已经出现了不稳定的历史，2015 财年 iPhone 推出前后增长了 25%，随后在 2016 财年出现负增长。这种模式在2019财年再次重演，苹果在2018财年iPhone增长后的一年报告增长有限。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d963de5212388f8f6d23a3e42607704d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> The 5G iPhone cycle was already expected to boost FY21 revenues and the COVID revenue pulled forward just exacerbated the normal cycles. The tech giant has shifted to Services in order to cut out the volatility from Product sales, but COVID actually made services somewhat volatile as well.<blockquote>5G iPhone周期已经预计将提振21财年的收入，而COVID收入的提前只是加剧了正常周期。这家科技巨头已经转向服务业，以消除产品销售的波动性，但COVID实际上也使服务业有些波动。</blockquote> Apple just reported a quarter where Services revenues grew a surprisingly strong 26%. Unfortunately though, Services revenues were the second largest bucket, but the amount was only 22% of total sales. And this was a quarter when supply constraints held back Product revenues by $6 billion, yet Services still didn't dictate the business path.<blockquote>苹果刚刚公布了一个季度的服务收入增长了令人惊讶的 26%。不幸的是，服务收入是第二大桶，但金额仅占总销售额的22%。本季度，供应限制使产品收入减少了 60 亿美元，但服务仍然没有决定业务路径。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52425199d9af0fa3e56fd0136ec9fc3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Apple FQ4'21 earnings release<blockquote>资料来源：苹果 2021 年第四季度财报发布</blockquote> The recent App Store court ruling on payments is even forecast to impact Services growth going forward. Apple faces lower growth for App Store revenue with the inclusion of alternative payment methods in apps and the company already reducing fees for some apps.<blockquote>最近App Store法院关于支付的裁决甚至预计会影响未来的服务增长。由于应用程序中包含替代支付方式，并且该公司已经降低了一些应用程序的费用，苹果面临着应用商店收入增长放缓的问题。</blockquote> Wildly Bullish<blockquote>疯狂看涨</blockquote> Despite all of these issues with the reset of the business, analysts are uniformly bullish on the stock. According toTipRanksdata where only analyst ratings updated in the last 3 months are included, 19 analysts have Buy ratings and only 6 analysts have Hold ratings. No analysts have maintained a Sell rating on Apple during this period.<blockquote>尽管业务重置存在所有这些问题，但分析师一致看好该股。根据提示排名仅包括过去 3 个月更新的分析师评级的数据，19 位分析师给予买入评级，只有 6 位分析师给予持有评级。在此期间，没有分析师维持苹果的卖出评级。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635b6f7189a55f916fb18f2d1a413dc8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TipRanks<blockquote>资料来源：TipRanks</blockquote> Now that Apple has missed quarterly revenue targets and reset the strong holiday quarter to include sizable supply disruptions, analysts are wildly bullish with the stock still trading at 26x FY22 EPS estimates at $5.67. Even the analyst community hasn't outlined a scenario where Apple generates premium growth rates going forward, so the disconnect is odd.<blockquote>现在苹果未能实现季度收入目标，并将强劲的假日季度重置为包括大规模的供应中断，分析师非常看好该股的交易价格仍为 22 财年每股收益预期的 26 倍，为 5.67 美元。即使是分析师界也没有概述苹果未来产生溢价增长率的情景，因此这种脱节很奇怪。</blockquote> The average analyst target of nearly $169 would offer 13% upside and leave the stock at nearly 30x FY22 EPS targets. An investor shouldn't take accept this limited return forecast considering the weak revenue growth picture could reset the stock multiple 20% lower or more. The risk/reward scenario isn't very rewarding for Apple at $150 when a 20% dip leaves the stock still trading at 21x FY22 EPS forecasts and the upside is predicted at only 13%.<blockquote>分析师近 169 美元的平均目标将提供 13% 的上涨空间，使该股达到 2022 财年每股收益目标的近 30 倍。考虑到疲软的收入增长可能会使股票倍数重置 20% 或更多，投资者不应接受这种有限的回报预测。对于 150 美元的苹果来说，风险/回报情景并不是很有回报，因为 20% 的下跌使得该股仍以 22 财年每股收益预测的 21 倍进行交易，而上涨空间预计仅为 13%。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> The key investor takeaway is that while Apple remains a market leader, the company is now going through the normal cyclical revenue dips from a Product focused business. The COVID lockdowns pulled forward revenues more than normal leading to what amounts as a great reset in FY22. Investors should avoid the stock at $150 with the downside risk larger than any upside potential in the next year or more.<blockquote>投资者的主要收获是，虽然苹果仍然是市场领导者，但该公司目前正在经历以产品为中心的业务的正常周期性收入下降。COVID封锁导致收入比正常情况下更多，导致2022财年的收入大幅重置。投资者应回避 150 美元的股票，因为下行风险大于未来一年或更长时间的任何上行潜力。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Great Reset<blockquote>苹果：大重置</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Great Reset<blockquote>苹果：大重置</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-11-01 21:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Apple missed revenue estimates for FQ4'21 and faces major headwinds to growth going forward.</li> <li>The tech giant expects supply chain issues to lead to a greater than $6 billion impact to December quarter revenues.</li> <li>Analysts forecast minimal revenue growth over the next 3 years, as Apple faces the typical weak Product cycles combined with massive sales pulled forward into FY21.</li> <li>The stock trades at a stretched forward PE ratio of 26x while even very bullish analysts only forecast 13% upside leading to a mismatched risk/reward scenario.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd5b8fd99a0523d96bf052afd8c1b37\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>苹果未能达到 2021 年第四季度的收入预期，未来增长面临重大阻力。</li><li>这家科技巨头预计供应链问题将对 12 月份季度收入造成超过 60 亿美元的影响。</li><li>分析师预测未来 3 年收入增长将微乎其微，因为苹果面临典型的疲软产品周期，加上 2021 财年的大规模销售。</li><li>该股的远期市盈率为 26 倍，而即使是非常乐观的分析师也只预测 13% 的上涨空间，导致风险/回报不匹配。</li></ul>Nikada/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</blockquote> After reporting a highly disappointing September quarter,Apple(AAPL) investors now have to reset their view on the tech giant. The company benefitted substantially from the COVID lockdowns pushing workers and students into buying technology gadgets for the home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;remains Neutral on the stock until the market has reset exceptions on Apple to the reality of a slow growth behemoth.<blockquote>在公布了令人非常失望的 9 月份季度业绩后，苹果（AAPL）投资者现在必须重新看待这家科技巨头。该公司从新冠疫情封锁中受益匪浅，迫使工人和学生为家庭购买科技产品。我的投资论点对该股保持中立，直到市场将苹果的例外情况重置为增长缓慢的庞然大物的现实。</blockquote> Normalization Reset<blockquote>归一化复位</blockquote> Despite wide knowledge that revenues were pulled forward during the last FY, 5G iPhones were pushed into the year and supply chain issues will constrain current results, the average analyst is still very bullish on Apple. Even with all of these acknowledged headwinds, the stock still trades near all-time highs around $150.<blockquote>尽管众所周知，上一财年的收入有所提升，5G iPhone 被推迟到今年，供应链问题将限制当前的业绩，但普通分析师仍然非常看好苹果。即使存在所有这些公认的不利因素，该股的交易价格仍接近 150 美元左右的历史高点。</blockquote> For FQ4'21, Apple&nbsp;missed analyst&nbsp;revenue targets by a wide $1.6 billion for the first quarterly miss since 2017. The tech giant saw most Product categories miss estimates, but the main issue with iPhone revenues missing the consensus $68.7 billion target by a large $3.6 billion. Most important, the quarter was already the last one with massive pulled forward revenues combined with the 5G iPhone benefit, as the big miss still corresponded with revenue growing 29%.<blockquote>2021 年第四季度，苹果与分析师收入目标相差 16 亿美元，这是自 2017 年以来的首次季度未达标。这家科技巨头的大多数产品类别都没有达到预期，但主要问题是 iPhone 收入比共识的 687 亿美元目标差了 36 亿美元。最重要的是，本季度已经是最后一个收入大幅提前以及 5G iPhone 优势的季度，因为大失误仍然对应于收入增长 29%。</blockquote> The quarterly revenues were even impacted by supply constraints hitting the September quarter numbers. Per CFO Luca Maestri on the&nbsp;FQ4'21 earnings call, the impact will be far higher in the current quarter:<blockquote>季度收入甚至受到 9 月份季度数据的供应限制的影响。根据首席财务官 Luca Maestri 在 2021 年第四季度盈利看涨期权中的说法，本季度的影响将大得多：</blockquote> As we mentioned earlier, during the September quarter, supply constraints impacted our revenue by around $6 billion. We estimate the impact from supply constraints will be larger during the December quarter. Despite this challenge, we are seeing high demands for our products and expect to achieve very solid year-over-year revenue growth and to set a new revenue record during the December quarter. Now, this revenue pushed out into FY22 does help results going forward. Apple would've had a far higher hurdle this year with the September quarter results being a massive blowout number reaching topping $89 billion. The company would've reported FY21 sales of $372 billion and those $6 billion in sales wouldn't help the FY22 results. The actual results for the year would be much closer to breakeven at $373 billion compared to the forecasts for nearly 4% growth.<blockquote>正如我们之前提到的，在 9 月份季度，供应限制影响了我们约 60 亿美元的收入。我们预计 12 月份季度供应限制的影响将会更大。尽管面临这一挑战，我们仍然看到对我们产品的高需求，并预计在 12 月份季度实现非常稳健的收入同比增长，并创下新的收入记录。现在，这笔收入推入 2022 财年确实有助于未来的业绩。苹果今年将面临更高的障碍，9 月份季度业绩将是一个巨大的井喷数字，达到 890 亿美元。该公司报告的 2021 财年销售额为 3720 亿美元，而这 60 亿美元的销售额无助于 2022 财年的业绩。与近4%的增长预测相比，今年的实际业绩将更接近收支平衡，达到3730亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9996ab9668ee4c5755ead167b0c9298\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"94\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: SA earnings estimates<blockquote>资料来源：SA 盈利预测</blockquote> Even still, the forecast is for a strong December quarter followed my miserable quarterly numbers in at least the March and June quarters. Anyone looking at a 10-year revenue chart for Apple will quickly recognize the massive revenue pulled froward. Apple already has a history of volatile revenues due iPhone product cycles with a period of 25% growth around the FY15 iPhone launch followed by negative growth in FY16. The pattern was again repeated in FY19 where Apple reported limited growth the year after the FY18 iPhone boost.<blockquote>即便如此，继我至少在 3 月和 6 月季度糟糕的季度数据之后，预测 12 月季度将表现强劲。任何查看苹果 10 年收入图表的人都会很快认识到巨大的收入。由于 iPhone 产品周期，苹果的收入已经出现了不稳定的历史，2015 财年 iPhone 推出前后增长了 25%，随后在 2016 财年出现负增长。这种模式在2019财年再次重演，苹果在2018财年iPhone增长后的一年报告增长有限。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d963de5212388f8f6d23a3e42607704d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> The 5G iPhone cycle was already expected to boost FY21 revenues and the COVID revenue pulled forward just exacerbated the normal cycles. The tech giant has shifted to Services in order to cut out the volatility from Product sales, but COVID actually made services somewhat volatile as well.<blockquote>5G iPhone周期已经预计将提振21财年的收入，而COVID收入的提前只是加剧了正常周期。这家科技巨头已经转向服务业，以消除产品销售的波动性，但COVID实际上也使服务业有些波动。</blockquote> Apple just reported a quarter where Services revenues grew a surprisingly strong 26%. Unfortunately though, Services revenues were the second largest bucket, but the amount was only 22% of total sales. And this was a quarter when supply constraints held back Product revenues by $6 billion, yet Services still didn't dictate the business path.<blockquote>苹果刚刚公布了一个季度的服务收入增长了令人惊讶的 26%。不幸的是，服务收入是第二大桶，但金额仅占总销售额的22%。本季度，供应限制使产品收入减少了 60 亿美元，但服务仍然没有决定业务路径。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52425199d9af0fa3e56fd0136ec9fc3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"141\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Apple FQ4'21 earnings release<blockquote>资料来源：苹果 2021 年第四季度财报发布</blockquote> The recent App Store court ruling on payments is even forecast to impact Services growth going forward. Apple faces lower growth for App Store revenue with the inclusion of alternative payment methods in apps and the company already reducing fees for some apps.<blockquote>最近App Store法院关于支付的裁决甚至预计会影响未来的服务增长。由于应用程序中包含替代支付方式，并且该公司已经降低了一些应用程序的费用，苹果面临着应用商店收入增长放缓的问题。</blockquote> Wildly Bullish<blockquote>疯狂看涨</blockquote> Despite all of these issues with the reset of the business, analysts are uniformly bullish on the stock. According toTipRanksdata where only analyst ratings updated in the last 3 months are included, 19 analysts have Buy ratings and only 6 analysts have Hold ratings. No analysts have maintained a Sell rating on Apple during this period.<blockquote>尽管业务重置存在所有这些问题，但分析师一致看好该股。根据提示排名仅包括过去 3 个月更新的分析师评级的数据，19 位分析师给予买入评级，只有 6 位分析师给予持有评级。在此期间，没有分析师维持苹果的卖出评级。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635b6f7189a55f916fb18f2d1a413dc8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TipRanks<blockquote>资料来源：TipRanks</blockquote> Now that Apple has missed quarterly revenue targets and reset the strong holiday quarter to include sizable supply disruptions, analysts are wildly bullish with the stock still trading at 26x FY22 EPS estimates at $5.67. Even the analyst community hasn't outlined a scenario where Apple generates premium growth rates going forward, so the disconnect is odd.<blockquote>现在苹果未能实现季度收入目标，并将强劲的假日季度重置为包括大规模的供应中断，分析师非常看好该股的交易价格仍为 22 财年每股收益预期的 26 倍，为 5.67 美元。即使是分析师界也没有概述苹果未来产生溢价增长率的情景，因此这种脱节很奇怪。</blockquote> The average analyst target of nearly $169 would offer 13% upside and leave the stock at nearly 30x FY22 EPS targets. An investor shouldn't take accept this limited return forecast considering the weak revenue growth picture could reset the stock multiple 20% lower or more. The risk/reward scenario isn't very rewarding for Apple at $150 when a 20% dip leaves the stock still trading at 21x FY22 EPS forecasts and the upside is predicted at only 13%.<blockquote>分析师近 169 美元的平均目标将提供 13% 的上涨空间，使该股达到 2022 财年每股收益目标的近 30 倍。考虑到疲软的收入增长可能会使股票倍数重置 20% 或更多，投资者不应接受这种有限的回报预测。对于 150 美元的苹果来说，风险/回报情景并不是很有回报，因为 20% 的下跌使得该股仍以 22 财年每股收益预测的 21 倍进行交易，而上涨空间预计仅为 13%。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> The key investor takeaway is that while Apple remains a market leader, the company is now going through the normal cyclical revenue dips from a Product focused business. The COVID lockdowns pulled forward revenues more than normal leading to what amounts as a great reset in FY22. Investors should avoid the stock at $150 with the downside risk larger than any upside potential in the next year or more.<blockquote>投资者的主要收获是，虽然苹果仍然是市场领导者，但该公司目前正在经历以产品为中心的业务的正常周期性收入下降。COVID封锁导致收入比正常情况下更多，导致2022财年的收入大幅重置。投资者应回避 150 美元的股票，因为下行风险大于未来一年或更长时间的任何上行潜力。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4463955-apple-great-reset\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4463955-apple-great-reset","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176397702","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple missed revenue estimates for FQ4'21 and faces major headwinds to growth going forward.\nThe tech giant expects supply chain issues to lead to a greater than $6 billion impact to December quarter revenues.\nAnalysts forecast minimal revenue growth over the next 3 years, as Apple faces the typical weak Product cycles combined with massive sales pulled forward into FY21.\nThe stock trades at a stretched forward PE ratio of 26x while even very bullish analysts only forecast 13% upside leading to a mismatched risk/reward scenario.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nAfter reporting a highly disappointing September quarter,Apple(AAPL) investors now have to reset their view on the tech giant. The company benefitted substantially from the COVID lockdowns pushing workers and students into buying technology gadgets for the home. My investment thesis remains Neutral on the stock until the market has reset exceptions on Apple to the reality of a slow growth behemoth.\nNormalization Reset\nDespite wide knowledge that revenues were pulled forward during the last FY, 5G iPhones were pushed into the year and supply chain issues will constrain current results, the average analyst is still very bullish on Apple. Even with all of these acknowledged headwinds, the stock still trades near all-time highs around $150.\nFor FQ4'21, Apple missed analyst revenue targets by a wide $1.6 billion for the first quarterly miss since 2017. The tech giant saw most Product categories miss estimates, but the main issue with iPhone revenues missing the consensus $68.7 billion target by a large $3.6 billion. Most important, the quarter was already the last one with massive pulled forward revenues combined with the 5G iPhone benefit, as the big miss still corresponded with revenue growing 29%.\nThe quarterly revenues were even impacted by supply constraints hitting the September quarter numbers. Per CFO Luca Maestri on the FQ4'21 earnings call, the impact will be far higher in the current quarter:\n\n As we mentioned earlier, during the September quarter, supply constraints impacted our revenue by around $6 billion. We estimate the impact from supply constraints will be larger during the December quarter. Despite this challenge, we are seeing high demands for our products and expect to achieve very solid year-over-year revenue growth and to set a new revenue record during the December quarter.\n\nNow, this revenue pushed out into FY22 does help results going forward. Apple would've had a far higher hurdle this year with the September quarter results being a massive blowout number reaching topping $89 billion. The company would've reported FY21 sales of $372 billion and those $6 billion in sales wouldn't help the FY22 results. The actual results for the year would be much closer to breakeven at $373 billion compared to the forecasts for nearly 4% growth.\nSource: SA earnings estimates\nEven still, the forecast is for a strong December quarter followed my miserable quarterly numbers in at least the March and June quarters. Anyone looking at a 10-year revenue chart for Apple will quickly recognize the massive revenue pulled froward. Apple already has a history of volatile revenues due iPhone product cycles with a period of 25% growth around the FY15 iPhone launch followed by negative growth in FY16. The pattern was again repeated in FY19 where Apple reported limited growth the year after the FY18 iPhone boost.\nData by YCharts\nThe 5G iPhone cycle was already expected to boost FY21 revenues and the COVID revenue pulled forward just exacerbated the normal cycles. The tech giant has shifted to Services in order to cut out the volatility from Product sales, but COVID actually made services somewhat volatile as well.\nApple just reported a quarter where Services revenues grew a surprisingly strong 26%. Unfortunately though, Services revenues were the second largest bucket, but the amount was only 22% of total sales. And this was a quarter when supply constraints held back Product revenues by $6 billion, yet Services still didn't dictate the business path.\nSource: Apple FQ4'21 earnings release\nThe recent App Store court ruling on payments is even forecast to impact Services growth going forward. Apple faces lower growth for App Store revenue with the inclusion of alternative payment methods in apps and the company already reducing fees for some apps.\nWildly Bullish\nDespite all of these issues with the reset of the business, analysts are uniformly bullish on the stock. According toTipRanksdata where only analyst ratings updated in the last 3 months are included, 19 analysts have Buy ratings and only 6 analysts have Hold ratings. No analysts have maintained a Sell rating on Apple during this period.\nSource: TipRanks\nNow that Apple has missed quarterly revenue targets and reset the strong holiday quarter to include sizable supply disruptions, analysts are wildly bullish with the stock still trading at 26x FY22 EPS estimates at $5.67. Even the analyst community hasn't outlined a scenario where Apple generates premium growth rates going forward, so the disconnect is odd.\nThe average analyst target of nearly $169 would offer 13% upside and leave the stock at nearly 30x FY22 EPS targets. An investor shouldn't take accept this limited return forecast considering the weak revenue growth picture could reset the stock multiple 20% lower or more. The risk/reward scenario isn't very rewarding for Apple at $150 when a 20% dip leaves the stock still trading at 21x FY22 EPS forecasts and the upside is predicted at only 13%.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that while Apple remains a market leader, the company is now going through the normal cyclical revenue dips from a Product focused business. The COVID lockdowns pulled forward revenues more than normal leading to what amounts as a great reset in FY22. Investors should avoid the stock at $150 with the downside risk larger than any upside potential in the next year or more.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2419,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/849716769"}