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2021-11-01

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Treasury Set for Own Tapering With $1 Trillion in Debt Cuts Seen<blockquote>财政部准备自行缩减规模，削减1万亿美元债务</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":849178763,"tweetId":"849178763","gmtCreate":1635738575294,"gmtModify":1635738575379,"author":{"id":3575247585577854,"idStr":"3575247585577854","authorId":3575247585577854,"authorIdStr":"3575247585577854","name":"Tgbdisciple","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c099c9cab7661dd2fa5c44752e05414","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":11,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Cool</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Cool</body></html>","text":"Cool","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849178763","repostId":1159255654,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159255654","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635737498,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159255654?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-01 11:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Treasury Set for Own Tapering With $1 Trillion in Debt Cuts Seen<blockquote>财政部准备自行缩减规模，削减1万亿美元债务</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159255654","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve won’t be the only one announcing a taper on Wednesday. The Treasu","content":"(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve won’t be the only one announcing a taper on Wednesday. The Treasury Department, for the first time in more than five years, will likely unveil a scaling down of its behemoth quarterly sale of longer-term securities.<blockquote>（彭博社）——美联储不会是周三唯一宣布缩减规模的机构。美国财政部可能会在五年多来首次宣布缩减其庞大的长期证券季度销售规模。</blockquote> In time, the Treasury’s reduction in issuance of coupon-bearing debt -- notes and bonds with interest payments -- will outweigh the Fed’s zeroing out of its quantitative-easing purchases of Treasuries. It’s a dynamic that hasn’t captured sufficient attention from investors, according to Wells Fargo &amp; Co., and could help limit increases in borrowing costs as the central bank withdraws stimulus.<blockquote>随着时间的推移，财政部减少息票债务（支付利息的票据和债券）的发行将超过美联储将量化宽松购买国债的规模降至零。富国银行表示，这种动态尚未引起投资者足够的关注，但随着央行撤回刺激措施，这可能有助于限制借贷成本的上涨。</blockquote> Sales of regular coupon-bearing debt will be pared back by some $1 trillion by about the third quarter of 2022, according to a number of Wall Street banks. By comparison, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said the central bank’s $80 billion-a-month in Treasuries purchases will be completely terminated by mid-2022.<blockquote>据多家华尔街银行称，到2022年第三季度左右，常规息票债务的销售额将减少约1万亿美元。相比之下，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔曾表示，美联储每月800亿美元的国债购买将在2022年中期完全终止。</blockquote> The reductions are expected to start with auctions at the so-called quarterly refunding next week, which is forecast to total less than the record $126 billion of the past three episodes.<blockquote>预计削减将从下周所谓的季度退款拍卖开始，预计总额将低于过去三集创纪录的1260亿美元。</blockquote> While the Treasury’s exact borrowing needs will depend in part on two longer-term fiscal packages that Congress aims to enact in coming weeks, the U.S. budget deficit is now on a downward path -- making the record auction sizes put in place last year to fund pandemic relief unnecessary.<blockquote>虽然财政部的确切借款需求将部分取决于国会计划在未来几周内颁布的两项长期财政计划，但美国预算赤字目前正处于下降通道，这使得去年为疫情提供资金而实施的创纪录拍卖规模没有必要救济。</blockquote> “Under a relatively wide range of plausible outcomes for the fiscal packages being negotiated, the current auction schedule will result in substantial over-funding for Treasury,” said Praveen Korapaty, chief rates strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “And these issuance reductions will largely offset the expected loss of demand from the Fed as it tapers asset purchases.”<blockquote>高盛集团首席利率策略师普拉文·科拉帕蒂(Praveen Korapaty)表示：“根据正在谈判的财政方案相对广泛的合理结果，目前的拍卖时间表将导致财政部资金大幅过剩。”“而这些发行减少将在很大程度上抵消美联储缩减资产购买时预期的需求损失。”</blockquote> The Treasury’s Wednesday release, coming just hours before the Fed’s policy announcement, will cover details of the department’s November quarterly refunding sales. Those include 3-, 10- and 30-year debt, as well as plans for any changes in Treasuries issuance over the coming months.<blockquote>就在美联储宣布政策前几个小时，财政部周三发布的新闻稿将涵盖该部门11月份季度退款销售的细节。其中包括3年期、10年期和30年期债务，以及未来几个月国债发行发生任何变化的计划。</blockquote> Primary dealers’ expectations for the auctions center around $119 billion to $120 billion in total.<blockquote>一级交易商对拍卖总额的预期约为1190亿至1200亿美元。</blockquote> Issuance plans are expected to assume that Congress will lift the federal debt ceiling, which on the basis of currently legislated limits is likely to prevent further borrowing at some point, from as soon as early December.<blockquote>预计发行计划将假设国会最早从12月初开始提高联邦债务上限，根据目前的立法限制，这可能会在某个时候阻止进一步借款。</blockquote> “Once again, Treasury is faced with making financing projections with uncertainty over government spending,” Jefferies analysts Thomas Simons and Aneta Markowska wrote in a note. They referred to the outstanding need to boost the debt limit and the lack of clarity about any potential deficit financing tied to a $1.75 trillion social-spending bill Democrats are trying to pass.<blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师托马斯·西蒙斯(Thomas Simons)和阿内塔·马科夫斯卡(Aneta Markowska)在一份报告中写道：“财政部再次面临在政府支出不确定性的情况下做出融资预测。”他们提到了提高债务上限的突出需求，以及与民主党试图通过的1.75万亿美元社会支出法案相关的任何潜在赤字融资缺乏明确性。</blockquote> Still, dealers generally expect the Treasury to follow the advice of its borrowing committee -- a group comprising dealers, investors and other stakeholders -- which recommended in August reductions to all maturities starting in November, with heavier cuts for 7- and 20-year Treasuries.<blockquote>尽管如此，交易商普遍预计财政部将遵循其借贷委员会（一个由交易商、投资者和其他利益相关者组成的团体）的建议，该委员会在8月份建议从11月份开始削减所有期限，其中7年期和20年期国债的削减幅度更大。</blockquote> The Jefferies team expects the following:<blockquote>杰富瑞团队预计：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Refunding sales totaling $118 billion<blockquote><ul><li>退款销售额总计1180亿美元</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Reductions across maturities:<blockquote><li>跨期限减少：</li></blockquote> <ul> <li>$2 billion per month for 2-, 3-, and 5-year notes<blockquote><ul><li>2年期、3年期和5年期票据每月20亿美元</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>$3 billion per month for 7-year notes<blockquote><li>7年期票据每月30亿美元</li></blockquote></li> <li>$3 billion for 10- and 30-year new issues and reopenings<blockquote><li>30亿美元用于10年期和30年期新发行和重新开放</li></blockquote></li> <li>$4 billion for 20-year bond new issues and reopenings<blockquote><li>40亿美元用于20年期债券新发行和重新开放</li></blockquote></li> </ul></li> </ul> With the world’s biggest debt market on the cusp of a major shift in the supply-demand dynamic -- and some differences of opinions by dealers on how much each tenor is cut -- it may provide some trading opportunities for investors.<blockquote>随着全球最大的债务市场正处于供需动态重大转变的风口浪尖，交易商对每个期限削减多少存在一些意见分歧，这可能会为投资者提供一些交易机会。</blockquote> Inflation-linked debt is the one category dealers foresee Treasury continuing to increase issuance. That’s as increases of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities trailed the pace of the boost to regular, or nominal, notes and bonds over the past year and a half. Inflationary fears also have been stoking demand for TIPS.<blockquote>与通胀挂钩的债务是交易商预计财政部将继续增加发行的一类债务。这是因为在过去一年半的时间里，通胀保值国债的涨幅落后于常规或名义票据和债券的涨幅。通胀担忧也刺激了对TIPS的需求。</blockquote> What remains a wild card for issuance plans is the Treasury’s desire to rebuild an ample cash buffer, after it was forced to run down its stockpile thanks to the debt-limit strains of recent months. To do that, it will need to ramp up the supply of Treasury bills.<blockquote>发行计划的一个未知数是，由于近几个月的债务上限压力，财政部被迫耗尽库存，因此希望重建充足的现金缓冲。为此，它需要增加国库券的供应。</blockquote> The Treasury’s cash balance is about $260 billion now, having rebounded since it plunged to $47 billion on Oct. 14 -- its lowest since September 2017.<blockquote>财政部现金余额目前约为2600亿美元，自10月14日跌至470亿美元（为2017年9月以来的最低水平）以来有所反弹。</blockquote> “Bill issuance levels are very hard to pinpoint with certainty now because it’s really dependent on how fast Treasury runs out of cash and how fast the debt ceiling gets resolved,” said Jan Nevruzi, a strategist at NatWest Markets.<blockquote>NatWest Markets策略师Jan Nevruzi表示：“现在很难确定票据发行水平，因为这实际上取决于财政部现金耗尽的速度以及债务上限解决的速度。”</blockquote> NatWest’s base case is that the debt ceiling will be resolved in November or early December. That, the firm predicts, will enable the Treasury to lift net bill issuance in 2022 by about $300 billion -- bringing its cash balance back to around $800 billion.<blockquote>NatWest的基本情况是债务上限将在11月或12月初得到解决。该公司预测，这将使财政部在2022年的票据净发行量增加约3000亿美元，使其现金余额回到8000亿美元左右。</blockquote> Still, most investors will be more keenly focused on the likely inflection point of falling Treasury note and bond issuance and the potential for that dynamic to help limit any increase in borrowing costs as the Fed normalizes policy.<blockquote>尽管如此，大多数投资者将更密切地关注国债和债券发行量下降的可能拐点，以及随着美联储政策正常化，这种动态有助于限制借贷成本上升的潜力。</blockquote> “We expect Treasury supply will fall faster than the Fed’s Treasury purchases,” a team of Wells Fargo strategists including Zachary Griffiths said in a note. And “reduced Treasury supply has been receiving too little attention in the market. This should change on November 3, with the Treasury refunding to resemble a slasher movie a couple of days after Halloween,” they wrote.<blockquote>包括Zachary Griffiths在内的富国银行策略师团队在一份报告中表示：“我们预计美国国债供应的下降速度将快于美联储的国债购买量。”而且“国债供应减少在市场上受到的关注太少。这种情况应该会在11月3日改变，财政部将在万圣节后几天退款，类似于恐怖电影，”他们写道。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Treasury Set for Own Tapering With $1 Trillion in Debt Cuts Seen<blockquote>财政部准备自行缩减规模，削减1万亿美元债务</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTreasury Set for Own Tapering With $1 Trillion in Debt Cuts Seen<blockquote>财政部准备自行缩减规模，削减1万亿美元债务</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBloomberg2021-11-01 11:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve won’t be the only one announcing a taper on Wednesday. The Treasury Department, for the first time in more than five years, will likely unveil a scaling down of its behemoth quarterly sale of longer-term securities.<blockquote>（彭博社）——美联储不会是周三唯一宣布缩减规模的机构。美国财政部可能会在五年多来首次宣布缩减其庞大的长期证券季度销售规模。</blockquote> In time, the Treasury’s reduction in issuance of coupon-bearing debt -- notes and bonds with interest payments -- will outweigh the Fed’s zeroing out of its quantitative-easing purchases of Treasuries. It’s a dynamic that hasn’t captured sufficient attention from investors, according to Wells Fargo &amp; Co., and could help limit increases in borrowing costs as the central bank withdraws stimulus.<blockquote>随着时间的推移，财政部减少息票债务（支付利息的票据和债券）的发行将超过美联储将量化宽松购买国债的规模降至零。富国银行表示，这种动态尚未引起投资者足够的关注，但随着央行撤回刺激措施，这可能有助于限制借贷成本的上涨。</blockquote> Sales of regular coupon-bearing debt will be pared back by some $1 trillion by about the third quarter of 2022, according to a number of Wall Street banks. By comparison, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said the central bank’s $80 billion-a-month in Treasuries purchases will be completely terminated by mid-2022.<blockquote>据多家华尔街银行称，到2022年第三季度左右，常规息票债务的销售额将减少约1万亿美元。相比之下，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔曾表示，美联储每月800亿美元的国债购买将在2022年中期完全终止。</blockquote> The reductions are expected to start with auctions at the so-called quarterly refunding next week, which is forecast to total less than the record $126 billion of the past three episodes.<blockquote>预计削减将从下周所谓的季度退款拍卖开始，预计总额将低于过去三集创纪录的1260亿美元。</blockquote> While the Treasury’s exact borrowing needs will depend in part on two longer-term fiscal packages that Congress aims to enact in coming weeks, the U.S. budget deficit is now on a downward path -- making the record auction sizes put in place last year to fund pandemic relief unnecessary.<blockquote>虽然财政部的确切借款需求将部分取决于国会计划在未来几周内颁布的两项长期财政计划，但美国预算赤字目前正处于下降通道，这使得去年为疫情提供资金而实施的创纪录拍卖规模没有必要救济。</blockquote> “Under a relatively wide range of plausible outcomes for the fiscal packages being negotiated, the current auction schedule will result in substantial over-funding for Treasury,” said Praveen Korapaty, chief rates strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “And these issuance reductions will largely offset the expected loss of demand from the Fed as it tapers asset purchases.”<blockquote>高盛集团首席利率策略师普拉文·科拉帕蒂(Praveen Korapaty)表示：“根据正在谈判的财政方案相对广泛的合理结果，目前的拍卖时间表将导致财政部资金大幅过剩。”“而这些发行减少将在很大程度上抵消美联储缩减资产购买时预期的需求损失。”</blockquote> The Treasury’s Wednesday release, coming just hours before the Fed’s policy announcement, will cover details of the department’s November quarterly refunding sales. Those include 3-, 10- and 30-year debt, as well as plans for any changes in Treasuries issuance over the coming months.<blockquote>就在美联储宣布政策前几个小时，财政部周三发布的新闻稿将涵盖该部门11月份季度退款销售的细节。其中包括3年期、10年期和30年期债务，以及未来几个月国债发行发生任何变化的计划。</blockquote> Primary dealers’ expectations for the auctions center around $119 billion to $120 billion in total.<blockquote>一级交易商对拍卖总额的预期约为1190亿至1200亿美元。</blockquote> Issuance plans are expected to assume that Congress will lift the federal debt ceiling, which on the basis of currently legislated limits is likely to prevent further borrowing at some point, from as soon as early December.<blockquote>预计发行计划将假设国会最早从12月初开始提高联邦债务上限，根据目前的立法限制，这可能会在某个时候阻止进一步借款。</blockquote> “Once again, Treasury is faced with making financing projections with uncertainty over government spending,” Jefferies analysts Thomas Simons and Aneta Markowska wrote in a note. They referred to the outstanding need to boost the debt limit and the lack of clarity about any potential deficit financing tied to a $1.75 trillion social-spending bill Democrats are trying to pass.<blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师托马斯·西蒙斯(Thomas Simons)和阿内塔·马科夫斯卡(Aneta Markowska)在一份报告中写道：“财政部再次面临在政府支出不确定性的情况下做出融资预测。”他们提到了提高债务上限的突出需求，以及与民主党试图通过的1.75万亿美元社会支出法案相关的任何潜在赤字融资缺乏明确性。</blockquote> Still, dealers generally expect the Treasury to follow the advice of its borrowing committee -- a group comprising dealers, investors and other stakeholders -- which recommended in August reductions to all maturities starting in November, with heavier cuts for 7- and 20-year Treasuries.<blockquote>尽管如此，交易商普遍预计财政部将遵循其借贷委员会（一个由交易商、投资者和其他利益相关者组成的团体）的建议，该委员会在8月份建议从11月份开始削减所有期限，其中7年期和20年期国债的削减幅度更大。</blockquote> The Jefferies team expects the following:<blockquote>杰富瑞团队预计：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Refunding sales totaling $118 billion<blockquote><ul><li>退款销售额总计1180亿美元</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Reductions across maturities:<blockquote><li>跨期限减少：</li></blockquote> <ul> <li>$2 billion per month for 2-, 3-, and 5-year notes<blockquote><ul><li>2年期、3年期和5年期票据每月20亿美元</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>$3 billion per month for 7-year notes<blockquote><li>7年期票据每月30亿美元</li></blockquote></li> <li>$3 billion for 10- and 30-year new issues and reopenings<blockquote><li>30亿美元用于10年期和30年期新发行和重新开放</li></blockquote></li> <li>$4 billion for 20-year bond new issues and reopenings<blockquote><li>40亿美元用于20年期债券新发行和重新开放</li></blockquote></li> </ul></li> </ul> With the world’s biggest debt market on the cusp of a major shift in the supply-demand dynamic -- and some differences of opinions by dealers on how much each tenor is cut -- it may provide some trading opportunities for investors.<blockquote>随着全球最大的债务市场正处于供需动态重大转变的风口浪尖，交易商对每个期限削减多少存在一些意见分歧，这可能会为投资者提供一些交易机会。</blockquote> Inflation-linked debt is the one category dealers foresee Treasury continuing to increase issuance. That’s as increases of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities trailed the pace of the boost to regular, or nominal, notes and bonds over the past year and a half. Inflationary fears also have been stoking demand for TIPS.<blockquote>与通胀挂钩的债务是交易商预计财政部将继续增加发行的一类债务。这是因为在过去一年半的时间里，通胀保值国债的涨幅落后于常规或名义票据和债券的涨幅。通胀担忧也刺激了对TIPS的需求。</blockquote> What remains a wild card for issuance plans is the Treasury’s desire to rebuild an ample cash buffer, after it was forced to run down its stockpile thanks to the debt-limit strains of recent months. To do that, it will need to ramp up the supply of Treasury bills.<blockquote>发行计划的一个未知数是，由于近几个月的债务上限压力，财政部被迫耗尽库存，因此希望重建充足的现金缓冲。为此，它需要增加国库券的供应。</blockquote> The Treasury’s cash balance is about $260 billion now, having rebounded since it plunged to $47 billion on Oct. 14 -- its lowest since September 2017.<blockquote>财政部现金余额目前约为2600亿美元，自10月14日跌至470亿美元（为2017年9月以来的最低水平）以来有所反弹。</blockquote> “Bill issuance levels are very hard to pinpoint with certainty now because it’s really dependent on how fast Treasury runs out of cash and how fast the debt ceiling gets resolved,” said Jan Nevruzi, a strategist at NatWest Markets.<blockquote>NatWest Markets策略师Jan Nevruzi表示：“现在很难确定票据发行水平，因为这实际上取决于财政部现金耗尽的速度以及债务上限解决的速度。”</blockquote> NatWest’s base case is that the debt ceiling will be resolved in November or early December. That, the firm predicts, will enable the Treasury to lift net bill issuance in 2022 by about $300 billion -- bringing its cash balance back to around $800 billion.<blockquote>NatWest的基本情况是债务上限将在11月或12月初得到解决。该公司预测，这将使财政部在2022年的票据净发行量增加约3000亿美元，使其现金余额回到8000亿美元左右。</blockquote> Still, most investors will be more keenly focused on the likely inflection point of falling Treasury note and bond issuance and the potential for that dynamic to help limit any increase in borrowing costs as the Fed normalizes policy.<blockquote>尽管如此，大多数投资者将更密切地关注国债和债券发行量下降的可能拐点，以及随着美联储政策正常化，这种动态有助于限制借贷成本上升的潜力。</blockquote> “We expect Treasury supply will fall faster than the Fed’s Treasury purchases,” a team of Wells Fargo strategists including Zachary Griffiths said in a note. And “reduced Treasury supply has been receiving too little attention in the market. This should change on November 3, with the Treasury refunding to resemble a slasher movie a couple of days after Halloween,” they wrote.<blockquote>包括Zachary Griffiths在内的富国银行策略师团队在一份报告中表示：“我们预计美国国债供应的下降速度将快于美联储的国债购买量。”而且“国债供应减少在市场上受到的关注太少。这种情况应该会在11月3日改变，财政部将在万圣节后几天退款，类似于恐怖电影，”他们写道。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-set-own-tapering-1-220001044.html\">Bloomberg</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-set-own-tapering-1-220001044.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159255654","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve won’t be the only one announcing a taper on Wednesday. The Treasury Department, for the first time in more than five years, will likely unveil a scaling down of its behemoth quarterly sale of longer-term securities.\nIn time, the Treasury’s reduction in issuance of coupon-bearing debt -- notes and bonds with interest payments -- will outweigh the Fed’s zeroing out of its quantitative-easing purchases of Treasuries. It’s a dynamic that hasn’t captured sufficient attention from investors, according to Wells Fargo & Co., and could help limit increases in borrowing costs as the central bank withdraws stimulus.\nSales of regular coupon-bearing debt will be pared back by some $1 trillion by about the third quarter of 2022, according to a number of Wall Street banks. By comparison, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said the central bank’s $80 billion-a-month in Treasuries purchases will be completely terminated by mid-2022.\nThe reductions are expected to start with auctions at the so-called quarterly refunding next week, which is forecast to total less than the record $126 billion of the past three episodes.\nWhile the Treasury’s exact borrowing needs will depend in part on two longer-term fiscal packages that Congress aims to enact in coming weeks, the U.S. budget deficit is now on a downward path -- making the record auction sizes put in place last year to fund pandemic relief unnecessary.\n“Under a relatively wide range of plausible outcomes for the fiscal packages being negotiated, the current auction schedule will result in substantial over-funding for Treasury,” said Praveen Korapaty, chief rates strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “And these issuance reductions will largely offset the expected loss of demand from the Fed as it tapers asset purchases.”\nThe Treasury’s Wednesday release, coming just hours before the Fed’s policy announcement, will cover details of the department’s November quarterly refunding sales. Those include 3-, 10- and 30-year debt, as well as plans for any changes in Treasuries issuance over the coming months.\nPrimary dealers’ expectations for the auctions center around $119 billion to $120 billion in total.\nIssuance plans are expected to assume that Congress will lift the federal debt ceiling, which on the basis of currently legislated limits is likely to prevent further borrowing at some point, from as soon as early December.\n“Once again, Treasury is faced with making financing projections with uncertainty over government spending,” Jefferies analysts Thomas Simons and Aneta Markowska wrote in a note. They referred to the outstanding need to boost the debt limit and the lack of clarity about any potential deficit financing tied to a $1.75 trillion social-spending bill Democrats are trying to pass.\nStill, dealers generally expect the Treasury to follow the advice of its borrowing committee -- a group comprising dealers, investors and other stakeholders -- which recommended in August reductions to all maturities starting in November, with heavier cuts for 7- and 20-year Treasuries.\nThe Jefferies team expects the following:\n\nRefunding sales totaling $118 billion\nReductions across maturities:\n\n$2 billion per month for 2-, 3-, and 5-year notes\n$3 billion per month for 7-year notes\n$3 billion for 10- and 30-year new issues and reopenings\n$4 billion for 20-year bond new issues and reopenings\n\n\nWith the world’s biggest debt market on the cusp of a major shift in the supply-demand dynamic -- and some differences of opinions by dealers on how much each tenor is cut -- it may provide some trading opportunities for investors.\nInflation-linked debt is the one category dealers foresee Treasury continuing to increase issuance. That’s as increases of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities trailed the pace of the boost to regular, or nominal, notes and bonds over the past year and a half. Inflationary fears also have been stoking demand for TIPS.\nWhat remains a wild card for issuance plans is the Treasury’s desire to rebuild an ample cash buffer, after it was forced to run down its stockpile thanks to the debt-limit strains of recent months. To do that, it will need to ramp up the supply of Treasury bills.\nThe Treasury’s cash balance is about $260 billion now, having rebounded since it plunged to $47 billion on Oct. 14 -- its lowest since September 2017.\n“Bill issuance levels are very hard to pinpoint with certainty now because it’s really dependent on how fast Treasury runs out of cash and how fast the debt ceiling gets resolved,” said Jan Nevruzi, a strategist at NatWest Markets.\nNatWest’s base case is that the debt ceiling will be resolved in November or early December. That, the firm predicts, will enable the Treasury to lift net bill issuance in 2022 by about $300 billion -- bringing its cash balance back to around $800 billion.\nStill, most investors will be more keenly focused on the likely inflection point of falling Treasury note and bond issuance and the potential for that dynamic to help limit any increase in borrowing costs as the Fed normalizes policy.\n“We expect Treasury supply will fall faster than the Fed’s Treasury purchases,” a team of Wells Fargo strategists including Zachary Griffiths said in a note. And “reduced Treasury supply has been receiving too little attention in the market. This should change on November 3, with the Treasury refunding to resemble a slasher movie a couple of days after Halloween,” they wrote.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":449,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/849178763"}