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2021-11-04
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Why the Fed’s long-awaited taper announcement isn’t rattling the stock market<blockquote>为什么美联储期待已久的缩减规模公告没有扰乱股市</blockquote>
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Thanks","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848637218","repostId":1166645174,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166645174","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635993522,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1166645174?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-04 10:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the Fed’s long-awaited taper announcement isn’t rattling the stock market<blockquote>为什么美联储期待已久的缩减规模公告没有扰乱股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166645174","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Stock-market investors took the Federal Reserve’s decision Wednesday to begin tapering its monthly b","content":"<p>Stock-market investors took the Federal Reserve’s decision Wednesday to begin tapering its monthly bond purchases without a hitch, erasing early losses to see the Dow Jones Industrial Average, +0.29%, S&P 500 index, +0.65% and Nasdaq Composite, +1.04% score a fourth consecutive round of record closes.</p><p><blockquote>股市投资者周三顺利接受了美联储开始缩减每月债券购买规模的决定，道琼斯工业平均指数（+0.29%）、标普500指数（+0.65%）和纳斯达克综合指数（+1.04%）连续第四轮创下收盘纪录。</blockquote></p><p> “This taper was probably the best telegraphed or advertised move in monetary policy history,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley-National, in a phone interview. That’s in contrast to 2013, when the Fed’s signal that it planned to begin scaling back an earlier asset-buying program sparked a messy bond market selloff that sent ripples through other markets.</p><p><blockquote>“B Riley-National 首席市场策略师阿特-霍根（Art Hogan）在接受电话采访时说：”这次缩减规模可能是货币政策历史上最好的电报或广告举措。这与2013年形成鲜明对比，当时美联储发出计划开始缩减早期资产购买计划的信号，引发了一场混乱的债券市场抛售，并在其他市场产生了连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed effectively spent months signaling that a tapering would come, a move that appeared to take the sting out of the announcement. Instead, the focus for investors is on a disconnect between the Fed and market participants on the outlook on interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>美联储实际上花了几个月的时间发出缩减规模的信号，此举似乎消除了声明的刺痛。相反，投资者关注的是美联储和市场参与者在利率前景上的脱节。</blockquote></p><p> For his part, Powell gave some pushback to rising market expectations that rates will begin to rise in mid-2022, just after the Fed fully winds down its asset buying program if it sticks to the pace it outlined Wednesday. Powell said the Fed could be “patient” in raising rates. The Fed’s policy statement said officials still expect inflation pressures to prove “transitory,” adding language explaining why.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔则对市场不断上升的预期进行了一些反击，即如果美联储坚持周三概述的步伐，利率将在 2022 年中期开始上升，就在美联储完全结束其资产购买计划之后。鲍威尔表示，美联储可能会 “耐心”加息。美联储的政策声明称，官员们仍预计通胀压力将被证明是 “暂时的”，并补充了解释原因的语言。</blockquote></p><p> But Powell also acknowledged that labor market improvements could proceed at a pace fast enough to justify rate increases by the second half of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>但鲍威尔也承认，劳动力市场的改善速度可能会足够快，足以证明到 2022 年下半年加息是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> “Having started to probe whether central banks really can look through elevated pressures, today’s focus was always going to be on how much, if at all, Powell pushed back on market expectations for early and multiple hikes,” said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors, in a note.</p><p><blockquote>“信安全球投资者公司（Principal Global Investors）首席策略师西玛-沙阿（Seema Shah）在一份报告中说：”在开始探究各国央行是否真的能够应对不断上升的压力之后，今天的焦点始终是鲍威尔在多大程度上（如果有的话）打压了市场对提前加息和多次加息的预期。</blockquote></p><p> “In the event, Powell maintained some flexibility by emphasizing the uncertain path for the economy — essentially sitting on both sides of the wall,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”在这种情况下，鲍威尔通过强调经济的不确定道路来保持一定的灵活性--基本上是坐在墙的两边。</blockquote></p><p> For now, stock-market investors aren’t sweating rising expectations for rate increases, which have contributed to a flattening of the Treasury yield curve.</p><p><blockquote>目前，股市投资者并不担心加息预期上升，这导致国债收益率曲线趋平。</blockquote></p><p> That makes sense, said equity analysts at Wells Fargo Securities, in a note.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行证券的股票分析师在一份报告中表示，这是有道理的。</blockquote></p><p> They don’t expect the Fed to be aggressive in hiking rates because today’s inflation pressures are due largely to supply-side bottlenecks and other problems, rather than overly loose monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>他们预计美联储不会积极加息，因为今天的通胀压力主要是由于供应侧瓶颈和其他问题造成的，而不是过度宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> “Therefore, addressing inflation will require time, not monetary tools. We believe this is the concept that the market is latching onto, and why the equity market is rallying,” they wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“因此，解决通货膨胀问题需要时间，而不是货币工具。我们认为，这是市场正在抓住的概念，也是股市反弹的原因，”他们写道。</blockquote></p><p> The disconnect between the Fed and markets on rates remained on display. Traders continued to price in some chance of anywhere from one to four rate increases by the end of 2022, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.</p><p><blockquote>美联储与市场在利率问题上的脱节依然存在。根据芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具，交易员继续估计到 2022 年底加息一到四次的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> That could set the stage for rough sailing over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，这可能会为艰难的航行埋下伏笔。</blockquote></p><p> “I still think we will see the yield curve flatten and the dollar rise, thus tightening financial conditions over time, which will act as a headwind to stocks, said Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management</p><p><blockquote>“莫特资本管理公司创始人迈克尔-克莱默（Michael Kramer）表示：“我仍然认为，我们将看到收益率曲线趋平，美元升值，从而随着时间的推移收紧金融状况，这将对股市构成阻力。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the Fed’s long-awaited taper announcement isn’t rattling the stock market<blockquote>为什么美联储期待已久的缩减规模公告没有扰乱股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the Fed’s long-awaited taper announcement isn’t rattling the stock market<blockquote>为什么美联储期待已久的缩减规模公告没有扰乱股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-04 10:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stock-market investors took the Federal Reserve’s decision Wednesday to begin tapering its monthly bond purchases without a hitch, erasing early losses to see the Dow Jones Industrial Average, +0.29%, S&P 500 index, +0.65% and Nasdaq Composite, +1.04% score a fourth consecutive round of record closes.</p><p><blockquote>股市投资者周三顺利接受了美联储开始缩减每月债券购买规模的决定，道琼斯工业平均指数（+0.29%）、标普500指数（+0.65%）和纳斯达克综合指数（+1.04%）连续第四轮创下收盘纪录。</blockquote></p><p> “This taper was probably the best telegraphed or advertised move in monetary policy history,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley-National, in a phone interview. That’s in contrast to 2013, when the Fed’s signal that it planned to begin scaling back an earlier asset-buying program sparked a messy bond market selloff that sent ripples through other markets.</p><p><blockquote>“B Riley-National 首席市场策略师阿特-霍根（Art Hogan）在接受电话采访时说：”这次缩减规模可能是货币政策历史上最好的电报或广告举措。这与2013年形成鲜明对比，当时美联储发出计划开始缩减早期资产购买计划的信号，引发了一场混乱的债券市场抛售，并在其他市场产生了连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed effectively spent months signaling that a tapering would come, a move that appeared to take the sting out of the announcement. Instead, the focus for investors is on a disconnect between the Fed and market participants on the outlook on interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>美联储实际上花了几个月的时间发出缩减规模的信号，此举似乎消除了声明的刺痛。相反，投资者关注的是美联储和市场参与者在利率前景上的脱节。</blockquote></p><p> For his part, Powell gave some pushback to rising market expectations that rates will begin to rise in mid-2022, just after the Fed fully winds down its asset buying program if it sticks to the pace it outlined Wednesday. Powell said the Fed could be “patient” in raising rates. The Fed’s policy statement said officials still expect inflation pressures to prove “transitory,” adding language explaining why.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔则对市场不断上升的预期进行了一些反击，即如果美联储坚持周三概述的步伐，利率将在 2022 年中期开始上升，就在美联储完全结束其资产购买计划之后。鲍威尔表示，美联储可能会 “耐心”加息。美联储的政策声明称，官员们仍预计通胀压力将被证明是 “暂时的”，并补充了解释原因的语言。</blockquote></p><p> But Powell also acknowledged that labor market improvements could proceed at a pace fast enough to justify rate increases by the second half of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>但鲍威尔也承认，劳动力市场的改善速度可能会足够快，足以证明到 2022 年下半年加息是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> “Having started to probe whether central banks really can look through elevated pressures, today’s focus was always going to be on how much, if at all, Powell pushed back on market expectations for early and multiple hikes,” said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors, in a note.</p><p><blockquote>“信安全球投资者公司（Principal Global Investors）首席策略师西玛-沙阿（Seema Shah）在一份报告中说：”在开始探究各国央行是否真的能够应对不断上升的压力之后，今天的焦点始终是鲍威尔在多大程度上（如果有的话）打压了市场对提前加息和多次加息的预期。</blockquote></p><p> “In the event, Powell maintained some flexibility by emphasizing the uncertain path for the economy — essentially sitting on both sides of the wall,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”在这种情况下，鲍威尔通过强调经济的不确定道路来保持一定的灵活性--基本上是坐在墙的两边。</blockquote></p><p> For now, stock-market investors aren’t sweating rising expectations for rate increases, which have contributed to a flattening of the Treasury yield curve.</p><p><blockquote>目前，股市投资者并不担心加息预期上升，这导致国债收益率曲线趋平。</blockquote></p><p> That makes sense, said equity analysts at Wells Fargo Securities, in a note.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行证券的股票分析师在一份报告中表示，这是有道理的。</blockquote></p><p> They don’t expect the Fed to be aggressive in hiking rates because today’s inflation pressures are due largely to supply-side bottlenecks and other problems, rather than overly loose monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>他们预计美联储不会积极加息，因为今天的通胀压力主要是由于供应侧瓶颈和其他问题造成的，而不是过度宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> “Therefore, addressing inflation will require time, not monetary tools. We believe this is the concept that the market is latching onto, and why the equity market is rallying,” they wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“因此，解决通货膨胀问题需要时间，而不是货币工具。我们认为，这是市场正在抓住的概念，也是股市反弹的原因，”他们写道。</blockquote></p><p> The disconnect between the Fed and markets on rates remained on display. Traders continued to price in some chance of anywhere from one to four rate increases by the end of 2022, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.</p><p><blockquote>美联储与市场在利率问题上的脱节依然存在。根据芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具，交易员继续估计到 2022 年底加息一到四次的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> That could set the stage for rough sailing over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，这可能会为艰难的航行埋下伏笔。</blockquote></p><p> “I still think we will see the yield curve flatten and the dollar rise, thus tightening financial conditions over time, which will act as a headwind to stocks, said Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management</p><p><blockquote>“莫特资本管理公司创始人迈克尔-克莱默（Michael Kramer）表示：“我仍然认为，我们将看到收益率曲线趋平，美元升值，从而随着时间的推移收紧金融状况，这将对股市构成阻力。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-feds-long-awaited-taper-announcement-isnt-rattling-the-stock-market-11635972130?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-feds-long-awaited-taper-announcement-isnt-rattling-the-stock-market-11635972130?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1166645174","content_text":"Stock-market investors took the Federal Reserve’s decision Wednesday to begin tapering its monthly bond purchases without a hitch, erasing early losses to see the Dow Jones Industrial Average, +0.29%, S&P 500 index, +0.65% and Nasdaq Composite, +1.04% score a fourth consecutive round of record closes.\n“This taper was probably the best telegraphed or advertised move in monetary policy history,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley-National, in a phone interview. That’s in contrast to 2013, when the Fed’s signal that it planned to begin scaling back an earlier asset-buying program sparked a messy bond market selloff that sent ripples through other markets.\nThe Fed effectively spent months signaling that a tapering would come, a move that appeared to take the sting out of the announcement. Instead, the focus for investors is on a disconnect between the Fed and market participants on the outlook on interest rates.\nFor his part, Powell gave some pushback to rising market expectations that rates will begin to rise in mid-2022, just after the Fed fully winds down its asset buying program if it sticks to the pace it outlined Wednesday. Powell said the Fed could be “patient” in raising rates. The Fed’s policy statement said officials still expect inflation pressures to prove “transitory,” adding language explaining why.\nBut Powell also acknowledged that labor market improvements could proceed at a pace fast enough to justify rate increases by the second half of 2022.\n“Having started to probe whether central banks really can look through elevated pressures, today’s focus was always going to be on how much, if at all, Powell pushed back on market expectations for early and multiple hikes,” said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors, in a note.\n“In the event, Powell maintained some flexibility by emphasizing the uncertain path for the economy — essentially sitting on both sides of the wall,” she said.\nFor now, stock-market investors aren’t sweating rising expectations for rate increases, which have contributed to a flattening of the Treasury yield curve.\nThat makes sense, said equity analysts at Wells Fargo Securities, in a note.\nThey don’t expect the Fed to be aggressive in hiking rates because today’s inflation pressures are due largely to supply-side bottlenecks and other problems, rather than overly loose monetary policy.\n“Therefore, addressing inflation will require time, not monetary tools. We believe this is the concept that the market is latching onto, and why the equity market is rallying,” they wrote.\nThe disconnect between the Fed and markets on rates remained on display. Traders continued to price in some chance of anywhere from one to four rate increases by the end of 2022, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.\nThat could set the stage for rough sailing over the long term.\n“I still think we will see the yield curve flatten and the dollar rise, thus tightening financial conditions over time, which will act as a headwind to stocks, said Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3494,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":21,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/848637218"}
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