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2021-11-04

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He predicted Dow 36,000 in 1999. Now, it's finally here<blockquote>他预测1999年道琼斯指数将达到36,000点。现在，它终于来了</blockquote>

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Now, it's finally here<blockquote>他预测1999年道琼斯指数将达到36,000点。现在，它终于来了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109707217","media":"CNN Business","summary":"London (CNN Business)Journalist James Glassman and economist Kevin Hassett wrote in late 1999 that t","content":"London (CNN Business)Journalist James Glassman and economist Kevin Hassett wrote in late 1999 that the Dow Jones Industrial Average could hit 36,000 as soon as 2005.<blockquote>伦敦（CNN商业）记者詹姆斯·格拉斯曼和经济学家凯文·哈塞特在1999年末写道，道琼斯工业平均指数最快可能在2005年触及36,000点。</blockquote> That prediction in their book, \"Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market\" did not come true. The dot-com bubble popped, sending markets into a tailspin. The comeback in 2006 and 2007 was cut off by the global financial crisis and Great Recession.<blockquote>他们在《道指36,000点：从即将到来的股市上涨中获利的新策略》一书中的预测没有实现。互联网泡沫破裂，市场陷入混乱。2006年和2007年的卷土重来被全球金融危机和大衰退打断。</blockquote> But the rally in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic has finally delivered. On Tuesday, the Dow closed above 36,000 for the first time ever, propelled by unprecedented levels of government and central bank stimulus and enthusiasm about corporate earnings.<blockquote>但Covid-19大流行后的反弹终于实现了。周二，受政府和央行前所未有的刺激措施以及对企业盈利的热情推动，道琼斯指数有史以来首次收于36,000点上方。</blockquote> The rebound has been sharp and quick. The Dow passed the 35,000 mark for the first time in July.<blockquote>反弹又快又猛。道指7月首次突破35,000点大关。</blockquote> \"This is yet another reminder for investors how far we've come the past 20 months,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial. \"In fact, 2021 is the only year in history to hit six separate 1,000 milestone levels.\"<blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick表示：“这再次提醒投资者我们在过去20个月里取得了多大的进步。”“事实上，2021年是历史上唯一一年达到六个单独的1000里程碑水平。”</blockquote> Hassett, who served as a senior economic adviser to President Donald Trump, doesn't see the book as a forecasting miss. Instead, he told me, its central thesis has held up well.<blockquote>曾担任唐纳德·特朗普总统高级经济顾问的哈塞特并不认为这本书是一个预测失误。相反，他告诉我，它的中心论点站得住脚。</blockquote> We chatted by email about the milestone and his reflections. The following conversation has been condensed and lightly edited for clarity.<blockquote>我们通过电子邮件聊了聊这个里程碑和他的想法。为了清晰起见，以下对话经过了浓缩和轻微编辑。</blockquote> Why did it take longer than you expected for the Dow to cross the 36,000 threshold?<blockquote>为什么道指突破36,000点关口的时间比您预期的要长？</blockquote> KH: The book was always about the case for holding stocks for long periods in order to reduce risk. Our first piece on this, and the book, always made it clear that nobody can predict stock movements in the short run. But over longer periods, prices go up. Many were arguing that the huge gains of the 1990s made it too late for ordinary investors to join the party. We said it was not, if they could commit to the long run.<blockquote>KH：这本书总是关于长期持有股票以降低风险的案例。我们在这方面的第一篇文章和这本书总是明确表示，没有人能够预测短期内的股票走势。但从长远来看，价格会上涨。许多人认为，20世纪90年代的巨大收益让普通投资者入党为时已晚。我们说不是，如果他们能长期承诺的话。</blockquote> You wrote in 1999 that stocks weren't as risky as investors believed and were undervalued. Do you still think that's true?<blockquote>你在1999年写道，股票并不像投资者认为的那样有风险，而且被低估了。你还认为那是真的吗？</blockquote> KH: The data since have confirmed patterns that have been clear back to the early 1800s. In the long run, the risks associated with holding stocks decline.<blockquote>KH：此后的数据证实了可以追溯到19世纪早期的模式。从长远来看，与持有股票相关的风险下降。</blockquote> Which of the book's arguments do you think have held up best?<blockquote>你认为这本书的哪一个论点最站得住脚？</blockquote> KH: The average return on equity since the book came out has been almost exactly what we assumed.<blockquote>KH：自这本书出版以来，平均股本回报率几乎与我们的假设完全一致。</blockquote> And the worst?<blockquote>最糟糕的是什么？</blockquote> KH: We expected interest rates to be higher, and never anticipated quantitative easing. In some sense, this is good news for stock investors going forward. The equity premium is still healthy, so expected returns on stocks over the next two decades are still higher than for bonds.<blockquote>KH：我们预计利率会更高，但从未预计会出现量化宽松。从某种意义上说，这对未来的股票投资者来说是个好消息。股权溢价仍然健康，因此未来二十年股票的预期回报仍高于债券。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>He predicted Dow 36,000 in 1999. 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Now, it's finally here<blockquote>他预测1999年道琼斯指数将达到36,000点。现在，它终于来了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nCNN Business2021-11-04 13:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nLondon (CNN Business)Journalist James Glassman and economist Kevin Hassett wrote in late 1999 that the Dow Jones Industrial Average could hit 36,000 as soon as 2005.<blockquote>伦敦（CNN商业）记者詹姆斯·格拉斯曼和经济学家凯文·哈塞特在1999年末写道，道琼斯工业平均指数最快可能在2005年触及36,000点。</blockquote> That prediction in their book, \"Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market\" did not come true. The dot-com bubble popped, sending markets into a tailspin. The comeback in 2006 and 2007 was cut off by the global financial crisis and Great Recession.<blockquote>他们在《道指36,000点：从即将到来的股市上涨中获利的新策略》一书中的预测没有实现。互联网泡沫破裂，市场陷入混乱。2006年和2007年的卷土重来被全球金融危机和大衰退打断。</blockquote> But the rally in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic has finally delivered. On Tuesday, the Dow closed above 36,000 for the first time ever, propelled by unprecedented levels of government and central bank stimulus and enthusiasm about corporate earnings.<blockquote>但Covid-19大流行后的反弹终于实现了。周二，受政府和央行前所未有的刺激措施以及对企业盈利的热情推动，道琼斯指数有史以来首次收于36,000点上方。</blockquote> The rebound has been sharp and quick. The Dow passed the 35,000 mark for the first time in July.<blockquote>反弹又快又猛。道指7月首次突破35,000点大关。</blockquote> \"This is yet another reminder for investors how far we've come the past 20 months,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial. \"In fact, 2021 is the only year in history to hit six separate 1,000 milestone levels.\"<blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick表示：“这再次提醒投资者我们在过去20个月里取得了多大的进步。”“事实上，2021年是历史上唯一一年达到六个单独的1000里程碑水平。”</blockquote> Hassett, who served as a senior economic adviser to President Donald Trump, doesn't see the book as a forecasting miss. Instead, he told me, its central thesis has held up well.<blockquote>曾担任唐纳德·特朗普总统高级经济顾问的哈塞特并不认为这本书是一个预测失误。相反，他告诉我，它的中心论点站得住脚。</blockquote> We chatted by email about the milestone and his reflections. The following conversation has been condensed and lightly edited for clarity.<blockquote>我们通过电子邮件聊了聊这个里程碑和他的想法。为了清晰起见，以下对话经过了浓缩和轻微编辑。</blockquote> Why did it take longer than you expected for the Dow to cross the 36,000 threshold?<blockquote>为什么道指突破36,000点关口的时间比您预期的要长？</blockquote> KH: The book was always about the case for holding stocks for long periods in order to reduce risk. Our first piece on this, and the book, always made it clear that nobody can predict stock movements in the short run. But over longer periods, prices go up. Many were arguing that the huge gains of the 1990s made it too late for ordinary investors to join the party. We said it was not, if they could commit to the long run.<blockquote>KH：这本书总是关于长期持有股票以降低风险的案例。我们在这方面的第一篇文章和这本书总是明确表示，没有人能够预测短期内的股票走势。但从长远来看，价格会上涨。许多人认为，20世纪90年代的巨大收益让普通投资者入党为时已晚。我们说不是，如果他们能长期承诺的话。</blockquote> You wrote in 1999 that stocks weren't as risky as investors believed and were undervalued. Do you still think that's true?<blockquote>你在1999年写道，股票并不像投资者认为的那样有风险，而且被低估了。你还认为那是真的吗？</blockquote> KH: The data since have confirmed patterns that have been clear back to the early 1800s. In the long run, the risks associated with holding stocks decline.<blockquote>KH：此后的数据证实了可以追溯到19世纪早期的模式。从长远来看，与持有股票相关的风险下降。</blockquote> Which of the book's arguments do you think have held up best?<blockquote>你认为这本书的哪一个论点最站得住脚？</blockquote> KH: The average return on equity since the book came out has been almost exactly what we assumed.<blockquote>KH：自这本书出版以来，平均股本回报率几乎与我们的假设完全一致。</blockquote> And the worst?<blockquote>最糟糕的是什么？</blockquote> KH: We expected interest rates to be higher, and never anticipated quantitative easing. In some sense, this is good news for stock investors going forward. The equity premium is still healthy, so expected returns on stocks over the next two decades are still higher than for bonds.<blockquote>KH：我们预计利率会更高，但从未预计会出现量化宽松。从某种意义上说，这对未来的股票投资者来说是个好消息。股权溢价仍然健康，因此未来二十年股票的预期回报仍高于债券。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/03/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">CNN Business</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/03/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109707217","content_text":"London (CNN Business)Journalist James Glassman and economist Kevin Hassett wrote in late 1999 that the Dow Jones Industrial Average could hit 36,000 as soon as 2005.\nThat prediction in their book, \"Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market\" did not come true. The dot-com bubble popped, sending markets into a tailspin. The comeback in 2006 and 2007 was cut off by the global financial crisis and Great Recession.\nBut the rally in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic has finally delivered. On Tuesday, the Dow closed above 36,000 for the first time ever, propelled by unprecedented levels of government and central bank stimulus and enthusiasm about corporate earnings.\nThe rebound has been sharp and quick. The Dow passed the 35,000 mark for the first time in July.\n\"This is yet another reminder for investors how far we've come the past 20 months,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial. \"In fact, 2021 is the only year in history to hit six separate 1,000 milestone levels.\"\nHassett, who served as a senior economic adviser to President Donald Trump, doesn't see the book as a forecasting miss. Instead, he told me, its central thesis has held up well.\nWe chatted by email about the milestone and his reflections. The following conversation has been condensed and lightly edited for clarity.\nWhy did it take longer than you expected for the Dow to cross the 36,000 threshold?\nKH: The book was always about the case for holding stocks for long periods in order to reduce risk. Our first piece on this, and the book, always made it clear that nobody can predict stock movements in the short run. But over longer periods, prices go up. Many were arguing that the huge gains of the 1990s made it too late for ordinary investors to join the party. We said it was not, if they could commit to the long run.\nYou wrote in 1999 that stocks weren't as risky as investors believed and were undervalued. Do you still think that's true?\nKH: The data since have confirmed patterns that have been clear back to the early 1800s. In the long run, the risks associated with holding stocks decline.\nWhich of the book's arguments do you think have held up best?\nKH: The average return on equity since the book came out has been almost exactly what we assumed.\nAnd the worst?\nKH: We expected interest rates to be higher, and never anticipated quantitative easing. In some sense, this is good news for stock investors going forward. The equity premium is still healthy, so expected returns on stocks over the next two decades are still higher than for bonds.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3031,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/848252670"}