Sooner or _老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-11-02

Sooner or later have to stop bond buying

Fed's bond-buying timeline: roaring entry, boring exit?<blockquote>美联储的债券购买时间表：咆哮的进入，无聊的退出？</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":843451300,"tweetId":"843451300","gmtCreate":1635853123232,"gmtModify":1635853123232,"author":{"id":4087275030265320,"idStr":"4087275030265320","authorId":4087275030265320,"authorIdStr":"4087275030265320","name":"Cyberkien","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cf0950785302dba9fc6bb16c8df76ac","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Sooner or later have to stop bond buying&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Sooner or later have to stop bond buying&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Sooner or later have to stop bond buying","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843451300","repostId":1172727273,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172727273","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635848521,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172727273?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-02 18:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed's bond-buying timeline: roaring entry, boring exit?<blockquote>美联储的债券购买时间表：咆哮的进入，无聊的退出？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172727273","media":"Reuters","summary":"It is hardly a secret by now that the Federal Reserve is going to reduce its support for the U.S. ec","content":"It is hardly a secret by now that the Federal Reserve is going to reduce its support for the U.S. economy soon: starting this month it will likely begin to pare its monthly asset purchases by $15 billion each month until ending them by mid-2022.<blockquote>美联储将很快减少对美国经济的支持，这已不是什么秘密：从本月开始，美联储可能会开始每月削减 150 亿美元的资产购买，直到 2022 年中期结束。</blockquote> That, at least, is the roadmap suggested by the Fed's post-meeting statements, minutes of its meetings, and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. It is expected to be spelled out when this week's policy meeting wraps up Wednesday, although officials may keep options open for speeding or slowing the taper to suit economic needs.<blockquote>至少，这是美联储会后声明、会议纪要以及美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的讲话所暗示的路线图。预计将在本周的政策会议周三结束时详细说明，尽管官员们可能会保留加快或放缓缩减规模以适应经济需求的选择。</blockquote> But overall, the Fed has telegraphed what Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker says will be a \"boring\" exit from what is now $120 billion in monthly bond buys.<blockquote>但总体而言，美联储已表示，费城联储主席帕特里克·哈克 (Patrick Harker) 表示，退出目前每月 1200 亿美元的债券购买规模将是“无聊”的。</blockquote> That is despite the fact that the reductions this time will proceed at about twice the pace as the last time the Fed ended a bond-buying program, in 2014.<blockquote>尽管这次的减产速度将是美联储上次在 2014 年结束债券购买计划的两倍左右。</blockquote> It is also a stark contrast to March of 2020, when U.S. authorities were first shutting down parts of the economy to prevent the spread of COVID-19. In response the Fed abruptly cut interest rates to zero, rolled out a raft of emergency lending programs, and began hoovering up trillions in Treasuries and mortgage-backed bonds.<blockquote>这也与2020年3月形成鲜明对比，当时美国当局首次关闭部分经济以防止新冠肺炎的传播。作为回应，美联储突然将利率降至零，推出了一系列紧急贷款计划，并开始筹集数万亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持债券。</blockquote> The bond-buying is credited with helping stabilize the financial system and, later, to bolster demand and foster a faster recovery from the sharpest downturn in decades.<blockquote>债券购买被认为有助于稳定金融体系，并随后提振需求，促进经济从几十年来最严重的衰退中更快复苏。</blockquote> More recently some Fed policymakers have questioned its effectiveness and even raised the alarm over its potential harms amid an economy marked by rising inflation and too much demand relative to pandemic-constrained supply. They all agree it should be pared back soon, minutes from the Fed's last meeting show.<blockquote>最近，一些美联储政策制定者质疑其有效性，甚至对其潜在危害发出警报，因为经济通胀上升，需求相对于疫情限制的供应过多。美联储上次会议纪要显示，他们都同意应该很快削减。</blockquote> Here is a look back at the arc of the Fed's pandemic bond-buying program - what policymakers said, what the central bank did, and what's likely to lie ahead.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/068d6c0e281ed2ae076d291ca2359a7c\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">A CRACK, AND THEN THE FLOODGATES<blockquote>以下是美联储大流行债券购买计划的回顾——政策制定者说了什么，央行做了什么，以及未来可能会发生什么。裂缝，然后是水闸</blockquote> Fed Chair Powell issued a terse and unusual statement Feb. 28, 2020, as stock markets plunged amid reports of the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus. The Fed, he said, is \"closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook\" and \"will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.\"<blockquote>2020年2月28日，美联储主席鲍威尔发表了一份简洁而不同寻常的声明，因为有报道称新型冠状病毒迅速蔓延，股市暴跌。他表示，美联储正在“密切关注事态发展及其对经济前景的影响”，并“将使用我们的工具并采取适当行动来支持经济”。</blockquote> Three days later policymakers cut interest rates by half a percentage point. On March 15, they slashed the rate to near-zero, where it has stayed since, and promised to buy \"at least\" $500 billion of Treasuries and $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities in coming months. Eight days later they shifted to an open-ended pledge to continue buying \"in the amounts needed\" to smooth markets and aid in monetary policy transmission.<blockquote>三天后，政策制定者将利率下调了半个百分点。3月15日，他们将利率削减至接近于零，并承诺在未来几个月购买“至少”5000亿美元的美国国债和2000亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。八天后，他们转而承诺继续“按所需数量”购买，以平滑市场并帮助货币政策传导。</blockquote> By the end of April and the two-month recession, the Fed's weekly accountings show they had added $1.4 trillion of Treasuries, and $234 billion of mortgage-backed securities. The central bank's balance sheet stood at $6.7 trillion, up from $4.4 trillion before the pandemic.<blockquote>到4月底和为期两个月的衰退时，美联储的每周会计显示，他们增加了1.4万亿美元的美国国债和2340亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。央行的资产负债表为6.7万亿美元，高于大流行前的4.4万亿美元。</blockquote> THE STEADY STREAM<blockquote>稳定流</blockquote> By June 2020, the Fed's bond-buying had settled into a slower rhythm: $80 billion in Treasuries and $40 billion in housing-backed bonds each month, Powell noted at his regular news conference. In its statement the Fed promised \"over coming months\" to continue to buy bonds \"at least at the current pace\" to sustain smooth markets and help transmit monetary policy. In September it kept that language and added that the purchases would \"help foster accommodative financial conditions\" and keep credit flowing to households and businesses.<blockquote>鲍威尔在例行新闻发布会上指出，到 2020 年 6 月，美联储的债券购买节奏已经放缓：每月购买 800 亿美元的国债和 400 亿美元的住房支持债券。美联储在声明中承诺“未来几个月”将继续“至少以目前的速度”购买债券，以维持市场平稳并帮助传导货币政策。9月份，它保留了这一措辞，并补充说，这些购买将“有助于营造宽松的金融环境”，并保持信贷流向家庭和企业。</blockquote> SETTING THE TEST FOR TAPER<blockquote>设置锥度测试</blockquote> In December 2020, with its balance sheet at $7.4 trillion, the Fed started the clock on the end to its bond buying, promising to keep up the $120 billion a month pace \"until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.\"<blockquote>2020 年 12 月，美联储的资产负债表规模为 7.4 万亿美元，开始结束债券购买，承诺保持每月 1200 亿美元的速度，“直到委员会的最大就业和价格稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展。”</blockquote> This language remained unchanged for the statements issued in January, March, April and June of this year.<blockquote>今年1月、3月、4月和6月发表的声明，这一语言保持不变。</blockquote> NEARING THE BAR FOR TAPER<blockquote>接近锥度杆</blockquote> July's statement acknowledged that \"the economy has made progress toward these goals,\" and in August Powell said the bar had been met for inflation, and \"clear progress\" had been made toward maximum employment; it could, he said, be appropriate to start reducing bond buying this year. In its September post-meeting statement the Fed went further: \"if progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted.\" Powell went still further in the news conference that followed, saying the employment test is \"all but met\" and \"we could easily move ahead at the next meeting,\" with policymakers supporting a pace of reduction that \"will put us having completed our taper around the middle of next year.\"<blockquote>7 月份的声明承认“经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展”，8 月份鲍威尔表示通胀门槛已经达到，并且在实现最大就业方面取得了“明显进展”；他说，今年开始减少债券购买可能是合适的。美联储在 9 月份会后声明中进一步表示：“如果进展继续大致如预期，委员会判断可能很快就需要放缓资产购买步伐。”鲍威尔在随后的新闻发布会上走得更远，他表示就业测试“几乎已经达到”，“我们可以在下次会议上轻松推进”，政策制定者支持削减开支的步伐，“这将使我们在明年年中左右完成缩减规模。”</blockquote> TAPER TIME<blockquote>锥度时间</blockquote> \"I do think it's time to taper.\" That's how Powell put it on Oct. 22, leaving little doubt for the outcome of this week's meeting. Minutes from the September meeting showed policymakers thought reducing Treasury securities purchases by $10 billion each month and mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion each month would be \"straightforward and appropriate.\" At that pace, if the taper begins in November, purchases would be phased out completely by June. On Oct. 27 the Fed's balance sheet stood at $8.6 trillion; at the expected tapering pace, it will be just over $9 trillion when the program ends, twice its pre-pandemic size.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63cf407bfdb81b8eaa23baf1d03d068d\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">WHAT'S NEXT?<blockquote>“我确实认为是时候缩减规模了。”鲍威尔在 10 月 22 日就是这么说的，对本周会议的结果毫无疑问。9 月份会议纪要显示，政策制定者认为每月减少 100 亿美元的国债购买和每月减少 50 亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券购买将是“直接且适当的”。按照这个速度，如果 11 月开始缩减购买量，到 6 月将完全停止购买。10月27日，美联储的资产负债表为8.6万亿美元；按照预期的缩减速度，该计划结束时将略高于 9 万亿美元，是大流行前规模的两倍。下一步是什么？</blockquote> At some point the Fed is expected to take the next step back to monetary policy normalcy by raising rates, although policymakers are currently divided on whether that will happen in 2022 or 2023.<blockquote>预计美联储将在某个时候采取下一步措施，通过加息回归货币政策常态，尽管政策制定者目前对这是否会在 2022 年或 2023 年发生存在分歧。</blockquote> As for the fate of the balance sheet, even less is known. Fed Governor Christopher Waller says the Fed should let its balance sheet shrink over the next few years by letting maturing securities roll off, rather than use the proceeds to buy replacements as it did for years after it ended its post-financial crisis bond-buying program. It's unclear how widely his view is shared at the Fed.<blockquote>至于资产负债表的命运，则更是无人知晓。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒表示，美联储应该通过让到期证券滚存来让资产负债表在未来几年缩水，而不是像金融危机后结束债券购买计划后的几年那样，用所得款项购买替代品。目前尚不清楚他的观点在美联储有多广泛认同。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed's bond-buying timeline: roaring entry, boring exit?<blockquote>美联储的债券购买时间表：咆哮的进入，无聊的退出？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed's bond-buying timeline: roaring entry, boring exit?<blockquote>美联储的债券购买时间表：咆哮的进入，无聊的退出？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nReuters2021-11-02 18:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIt is hardly a secret by now that the Federal Reserve is going to reduce its support for the U.S. economy soon: starting this month it will likely begin to pare its monthly asset purchases by $15 billion each month until ending them by mid-2022.<blockquote>美联储将很快减少对美国经济的支持，这已不是什么秘密：从本月开始，美联储可能会开始每月削减 150 亿美元的资产购买，直到 2022 年中期结束。</blockquote> That, at least, is the roadmap suggested by the Fed's post-meeting statements, minutes of its meetings, and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. It is expected to be spelled out when this week's policy meeting wraps up Wednesday, although officials may keep options open for speeding or slowing the taper to suit economic needs.<blockquote>至少，这是美联储会后声明、会议纪要以及美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的讲话所暗示的路线图。预计将在本周的政策会议周三结束时详细说明，尽管官员们可能会保留加快或放缓缩减规模以适应经济需求的选择。</blockquote> But overall, the Fed has telegraphed what Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker says will be a \"boring\" exit from what is now $120 billion in monthly bond buys.<blockquote>但总体而言，美联储已表示，费城联储主席帕特里克·哈克 (Patrick Harker) 表示，退出目前每月 1200 亿美元的债券购买规模将是“无聊”的。</blockquote> That is despite the fact that the reductions this time will proceed at about twice the pace as the last time the Fed ended a bond-buying program, in 2014.<blockquote>尽管这次的减产速度将是美联储上次在 2014 年结束债券购买计划的两倍左右。</blockquote> It is also a stark contrast to March of 2020, when U.S. authorities were first shutting down parts of the economy to prevent the spread of COVID-19. In response the Fed abruptly cut interest rates to zero, rolled out a raft of emergency lending programs, and began hoovering up trillions in Treasuries and mortgage-backed bonds.<blockquote>这也与2020年3月形成鲜明对比，当时美国当局首次关闭部分经济以防止新冠肺炎的传播。作为回应，美联储突然将利率降至零，推出了一系列紧急贷款计划，并开始筹集数万亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持债券。</blockquote> The bond-buying is credited with helping stabilize the financial system and, later, to bolster demand and foster a faster recovery from the sharpest downturn in decades.<blockquote>债券购买被认为有助于稳定金融体系，并随后提振需求，促进经济从几十年来最严重的衰退中更快复苏。</blockquote> More recently some Fed policymakers have questioned its effectiveness and even raised the alarm over its potential harms amid an economy marked by rising inflation and too much demand relative to pandemic-constrained supply. They all agree it should be pared back soon, minutes from the Fed's last meeting show.<blockquote>最近，一些美联储政策制定者质疑其有效性，甚至对其潜在危害发出警报，因为经济通胀上升，需求相对于疫情限制的供应过多。美联储上次会议纪要显示，他们都同意应该很快削减。</blockquote> Here is a look back at the arc of the Fed's pandemic bond-buying program - what policymakers said, what the central bank did, and what's likely to lie ahead.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/068d6c0e281ed2ae076d291ca2359a7c\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">A CRACK, AND THEN THE FLOODGATES<blockquote>以下是美联储大流行债券购买计划的回顾——政策制定者说了什么，央行做了什么，以及未来可能会发生什么。裂缝，然后是水闸</blockquote> Fed Chair Powell issued a terse and unusual statement Feb. 28, 2020, as stock markets plunged amid reports of the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus. The Fed, he said, is \"closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook\" and \"will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.\"<blockquote>2020年2月28日，美联储主席鲍威尔发表了一份简洁而不同寻常的声明，因为有报道称新型冠状病毒迅速蔓延，股市暴跌。他表示，美联储正在“密切关注事态发展及其对经济前景的影响”，并“将使用我们的工具并采取适当行动来支持经济”。</blockquote> Three days later policymakers cut interest rates by half a percentage point. On March 15, they slashed the rate to near-zero, where it has stayed since, and promised to buy \"at least\" $500 billion of Treasuries and $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities in coming months. Eight days later they shifted to an open-ended pledge to continue buying \"in the amounts needed\" to smooth markets and aid in monetary policy transmission.<blockquote>三天后，政策制定者将利率下调了半个百分点。3月15日，他们将利率削减至接近于零，并承诺在未来几个月购买“至少”5000亿美元的美国国债和2000亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。八天后，他们转而承诺继续“按所需数量”购买，以平滑市场并帮助货币政策传导。</blockquote> By the end of April and the two-month recession, the Fed's weekly accountings show they had added $1.4 trillion of Treasuries, and $234 billion of mortgage-backed securities. The central bank's balance sheet stood at $6.7 trillion, up from $4.4 trillion before the pandemic.<blockquote>到4月底和为期两个月的衰退时，美联储的每周会计显示，他们增加了1.4万亿美元的美国国债和2340亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。央行的资产负债表为6.7万亿美元，高于大流行前的4.4万亿美元。</blockquote> THE STEADY STREAM<blockquote>稳定流</blockquote> By June 2020, the Fed's bond-buying had settled into a slower rhythm: $80 billion in Treasuries and $40 billion in housing-backed bonds each month, Powell noted at his regular news conference. In its statement the Fed promised \"over coming months\" to continue to buy bonds \"at least at the current pace\" to sustain smooth markets and help transmit monetary policy. In September it kept that language and added that the purchases would \"help foster accommodative financial conditions\" and keep credit flowing to households and businesses.<blockquote>鲍威尔在例行新闻发布会上指出，到 2020 年 6 月，美联储的债券购买节奏已经放缓：每月购买 800 亿美元的国债和 400 亿美元的住房支持债券。美联储在声明中承诺“未来几个月”将继续“至少以目前的速度”购买债券，以维持市场平稳并帮助传导货币政策。9月份，它保留了这一措辞，并补充说，这些购买将“有助于营造宽松的金融环境”，并保持信贷流向家庭和企业。</blockquote> SETTING THE TEST FOR TAPER<blockquote>设置锥度测试</blockquote> In December 2020, with its balance sheet at $7.4 trillion, the Fed started the clock on the end to its bond buying, promising to keep up the $120 billion a month pace \"until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.\"<blockquote>2020 年 12 月，美联储的资产负债表规模为 7.4 万亿美元，开始结束债券购买，承诺保持每月 1200 亿美元的速度，“直到委员会的最大就业和价格稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展。”</blockquote> This language remained unchanged for the statements issued in January, March, April and June of this year.<blockquote>今年1月、3月、4月和6月发表的声明，这一语言保持不变。</blockquote> NEARING THE BAR FOR TAPER<blockquote>接近锥度杆</blockquote> July's statement acknowledged that \"the economy has made progress toward these goals,\" and in August Powell said the bar had been met for inflation, and \"clear progress\" had been made toward maximum employment; it could, he said, be appropriate to start reducing bond buying this year. In its September post-meeting statement the Fed went further: \"if progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted.\" Powell went still further in the news conference that followed, saying the employment test is \"all but met\" and \"we could easily move ahead at the next meeting,\" with policymakers supporting a pace of reduction that \"will put us having completed our taper around the middle of next year.\"<blockquote>7 月份的声明承认“经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展”，8 月份鲍威尔表示通胀门槛已经达到，并且在实现最大就业方面取得了“明显进展”；他说，今年开始减少债券购买可能是合适的。美联储在 9 月份会后声明中进一步表示：“如果进展继续大致如预期，委员会判断可能很快就需要放缓资产购买步伐。”鲍威尔在随后的新闻发布会上走得更远，他表示就业测试“几乎已经达到”，“我们可以在下次会议上轻松推进”，政策制定者支持削减开支的步伐，“这将使我们在明年年中左右完成缩减规模。”</blockquote> TAPER TIME<blockquote>锥度时间</blockquote> \"I do think it's time to taper.\" That's how Powell put it on Oct. 22, leaving little doubt for the outcome of this week's meeting. Minutes from the September meeting showed policymakers thought reducing Treasury securities purchases by $10 billion each month and mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion each month would be \"straightforward and appropriate.\" At that pace, if the taper begins in November, purchases would be phased out completely by June. On Oct. 27 the Fed's balance sheet stood at $8.6 trillion; at the expected tapering pace, it will be just over $9 trillion when the program ends, twice its pre-pandemic size.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63cf407bfdb81b8eaa23baf1d03d068d\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">WHAT'S NEXT?<blockquote>“我确实认为是时候缩减规模了。”鲍威尔在 10 月 22 日就是这么说的，对本周会议的结果毫无疑问。9 月份会议纪要显示，政策制定者认为每月减少 100 亿美元的国债购买和每月减少 50 亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券购买将是“直接且适当的”。按照这个速度，如果 11 月开始缩减购买量，到 6 月将完全停止购买。10月27日，美联储的资产负债表为8.6万亿美元；按照预期的缩减速度，该计划结束时将略高于 9 万亿美元，是大流行前规模的两倍。下一步是什么？</blockquote> At some point the Fed is expected to take the next step back to monetary policy normalcy by raising rates, although policymakers are currently divided on whether that will happen in 2022 or 2023.<blockquote>预计美联储将在某个时候采取下一步措施，通过加息回归货币政策常态，尽管政策制定者目前对这是否会在 2022 年或 2023 年发生存在分歧。</blockquote> As for the fate of the balance sheet, even less is known. Fed Governor Christopher Waller says the Fed should let its balance sheet shrink over the next few years by letting maturing securities roll off, rather than use the proceeds to buy replacements as it did for years after it ended its post-financial crisis bond-buying program. It's unclear how widely his view is shared at the Fed.<blockquote>至于资产负债表的命运，则更是无人知晓。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒表示，美联储应该通过让到期证券滚存来让资产负债表在未来几年缩水，而不是像金融危机后结束债券购买计划后的几年那样，用所得款项购买替代品。目前尚不清楚他的观点在美联储有多广泛认同。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-bond-buying-timeline-roaring-entry-boring-exit-2021-11-02/\">Reuters</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-bond-buying-timeline-roaring-entry-boring-exit-2021-11-02/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172727273","content_text":"It is hardly a secret by now that the Federal Reserve is going to reduce its support for the U.S. economy soon: starting this month it will likely begin to pare its monthly asset purchases by $15 billion each month until ending them by mid-2022.\nThat, at least, is the roadmap suggested by the Fed's post-meeting statements, minutes of its meetings, and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. It is expected to be spelled out when this week's policy meeting wraps up Wednesday, although officials may keep options open for speeding or slowing the taper to suit economic needs.\nBut overall, the Fed has telegraphed what Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker says will be a \"boring\" exit from what is now $120 billion in monthly bond buys.\nThat is despite the fact that the reductions this time will proceed at about twice the pace as the last time the Fed ended a bond-buying program, in 2014.\nIt is also a stark contrast to March of 2020, when U.S. authorities were first shutting down parts of the economy to prevent the spread of COVID-19. In response the Fed abruptly cut interest rates to zero, rolled out a raft of emergency lending programs, and began hoovering up trillions in Treasuries and mortgage-backed bonds.\nThe bond-buying is credited with helping stabilize the financial system and, later, to bolster demand and foster a faster recovery from the sharpest downturn in decades.\nMore recently some Fed policymakers have questioned its effectiveness and even raised the alarm over its potential harms amid an economy marked by rising inflation and too much demand relative to pandemic-constrained supply. They all agree it should be pared back soon, minutes from the Fed's last meeting show.\nHere is a look back at the arc of the Fed's pandemic bond-buying program - what policymakers said, what the central bank did, and what's likely to lie ahead.A CRACK, AND THEN THE FLOODGATES\nFed Chair Powell issued a terse and unusual statement Feb. 28, 2020, as stock markets plunged amid reports of the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus. The Fed, he said, is \"closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook\" and \"will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.\"\nThree days later policymakers cut interest rates by half a percentage point. On March 15, they slashed the rate to near-zero, where it has stayed since, and promised to buy \"at least\" $500 billion of Treasuries and $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities in coming months. Eight days later they shifted to an open-ended pledge to continue buying \"in the amounts needed\" to smooth markets and aid in monetary policy transmission.\nBy the end of April and the two-month recession, the Fed's weekly accountings show they had added $1.4 trillion of Treasuries, and $234 billion of mortgage-backed securities. The central bank's balance sheet stood at $6.7 trillion, up from $4.4 trillion before the pandemic.\nTHE STEADY STREAM\nBy June 2020, the Fed's bond-buying had settled into a slower rhythm: $80 billion in Treasuries and $40 billion in housing-backed bonds each month, Powell noted at his regular news conference. In its statement the Fed promised \"over coming months\" to continue to buy bonds \"at least at the current pace\" to sustain smooth markets and help transmit monetary policy. In September it kept that language and added that the purchases would \"help foster accommodative financial conditions\" and keep credit flowing to households and businesses.\nSETTING THE TEST FOR TAPER\nIn December 2020, with its balance sheet at $7.4 trillion, the Fed started the clock on the end to its bond buying, promising to keep up the $120 billion a month pace \"until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.\"\nThis language remained unchanged for the statements issued in January, March, April and June of this year.\nNEARING THE BAR FOR TAPER\nJuly's statement acknowledged that \"the economy has made progress toward these goals,\" and in August Powell said the bar had been met for inflation, and \"clear progress\" had been made toward maximum employment; it could, he said, be appropriate to start reducing bond buying this year. In its September post-meeting statement the Fed went further: \"if progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted.\" Powell went still further in the news conference that followed, saying the employment test is \"all but met\" and \"we could easily move ahead at the next meeting,\" with policymakers supporting a pace of reduction that \"will put us having completed our taper around the middle of next year.\"\nTAPER TIME\n\"I do think it's time to taper.\" That's how Powell put it on Oct. 22, leaving little doubt for the outcome of this week's meeting. Minutes from the September meeting showed policymakers thought reducing Treasury securities purchases by $10 billion each month and mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion each month would be \"straightforward and appropriate.\" At that pace, if the taper begins in November, purchases would be phased out completely by June. On Oct. 27 the Fed's balance sheet stood at $8.6 trillion; at the expected tapering pace, it will be just over $9 trillion when the program ends, twice its pre-pandemic size.WHAT'S NEXT?\nAt some point the Fed is expected to take the next step back to monetary policy normalcy by raising rates, although policymakers are currently divided on whether that will happen in 2022 or 2023.\nAs for the fate of the balance sheet, even less is known. Fed Governor Christopher Waller says the Fed should let its balance sheet shrink over the next few years by letting maturing securities roll off, rather than use the proceeds to buy replacements as it did for years after it ended its post-financial crisis bond-buying program. It's unclear how widely his view is shared at the Fed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3710,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":33,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/843451300"}