wniewnie
2021-11-03
Nice
UiPath: Buy For The Near Term, Hold For The Long Term<blockquote>UiPath：短期买入，长期持有</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
2
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":841786866,"tweetId":"841786866","gmtCreate":1635943378446,"gmtModify":1635943431163,"author":{"id":4095228411424310,"idStr":"4095228411424310","authorId":4095228411424310,"authorIdStr":"4095228411424310","name":"wniewnie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab9e48ec49e43b510444b042464b3b8d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nice</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nice</p></body></html>","text":"Nice","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841786866","repostId":1120786064,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1120786064","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634612546,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1120786064?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-19 11:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"UiPath: Buy For The Near Term, Hold For The Long Term<blockquote>UiPath：短期买入，长期持有</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120786064","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nUiPath should deliver alpha over the near term thanks to its leadership position in the RPA","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>UiPath should deliver alpha over the near term thanks to its leadership position in the RPA space. RPA space should see elevated demand from labor issues.</li> <li>Annual ramping of contracts should boost UiPath ARR which should in turn reflect positively in its price-action.</li> <li>Long-term is much less clear with high absolute and fair relative valuation combined with material execution risk.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dee1fdf98ac633e790ad107e02096867\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>piranka/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于其在 RPA 领域的领先地位，UiPath 应该会在短期内提供 alpha。RPA领域应该会因为劳动力问题而增加需求。</li><li>合同的年度增加应该会提振 UiPath ARR，这反过来会对其价格行为产生积极影响。</li><li>由于高绝对和公平的相对估值加上重大执行风险，长期前景就不太明朗了。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>piranka/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> UiPath(NYSE:PATH) is the leader of the robotic process automation (RPA) space. RPA will see increased demand in the current high-growth macro environment with labor shortage issues. UiPath is best positioned to capitalize on the opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PATH）是机器人流程自动化 (RPA) 领域的领导者。在当前劳动力短缺问题高增长的宏观环境下，RPA 的需求将会增加。UiPath 最适合抓住这个机会。</blockquote></p><p> The company is switching its focus to annual ramping which will benefit it operationally with happier customers and higher margins and inflate what matters most for investors, its annual recurring revenue (ARR).</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在将重点转向年度增长，这将使其运营受益，客户更满意，利润率更高，并提高对投资者最重要的年度经常性收入 (ARR)。</blockquote></p><p> Despite my bullishness over the short term, I’m less confident over the long. I see execution risks primarily arising from cloud transition and competitive threats. The relatively fair, but absolutely high valuation opens the door to sub-par price performance over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我在短期内看好，但从长期来看，我信心不足。我认为执行风险主要来自云迁移和竞争威胁。相对公平但绝对高的估值为长期低于标准的价格表现打开了大门。</blockquote></p><p> I recommend buying UiPath and monitoring noted issues. In the current picture, I recommend selling UiPath after increased demand from the macro catalysts is factored into the price.</p><p><blockquote>我建议购买UiPath并监控注意到的问题。在目前的情况下，我建议在宏观催化剂需求增加后出售 UiPath。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Great Macro Backdrop for RPA Demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>RPA需求的宏观背景</b></blockquote></p><p> Demand for RPA will increase over the coming years. The backbone of my macro thesis is sticky wage inflation. There is strong labor demand with many firms downsizing during the pandemic and now all trying to re-grow their workforce in tandem. The private sector is trying to accommodate the strong pent-up demand following the pandemic. The reopening demand is further fueled by unprecedented government stimulus boosting incomes. Labor supply, however, is shrinking, both over the near term with increased incomes and structurally with many forced into early retirement and others taking a sabbatical from work who are evaluating life priorities. The shortage of labor supply and rising labor demand will cause wage inflation. Rising labor costs will catalyze investments that increase labor efficiency to protect margins; labor efficiency is th ekey value proposition of RPA.</p><p><blockquote>未来几年，对RPA的需求将会增加。我的宏观论文的支柱是粘性工资通胀。劳动力需求强劲，许多公司在疫情期间裁员，现在都试图同时重新增加员工队伍。私营部门正试图满足疫情后被压抑的强劲需求。政府前所未有的增加收入的刺激措施进一步推动了重新开放的需求。然而，劳动力供应正在萎缩，无论是在短期内随着收入的增加，还是结构性的，许多人被迫提前退休，其他人在评估生活优先事项时休假。劳动力供给短缺和劳动力需求上升会造成工资通胀。劳动力成本上升将催化提高劳动效率以保护利润率的投资；劳动效率是RPA的核心价值主张。</blockquote></p><p> The demand for RPA was already very high. RPA was the fastest-growing enterprise software segment in 2020 for the third year in a row according to Gartner. The market research company expects the excellent performance to continue with double-digit growth rates through 2024. Bear in mind that the high labor demand with the reopening picture was unclear at the time of these reports (latest released May 2021) as was the wage inflation and short labor supply. I believe that RPA adoption rates will be even higher than the high expectations due to the favorable macro-backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>对RPA的需求已经非常高。根据 Gartner 的数据，2020 年 RPA 连续第三年成为增长最快的企业软件领域。该市场研究公司预计，出色的业绩将持续到 2024 年两位数的增长率。请记住，在这些报告（最新发布于2021年5月）发布时，重新开放的高劳动力需求以及工资通胀和劳动力供应短缺尚不清楚。我相信，由于有利的宏观背景，RPA的采用率将甚至高于高预期。</blockquote></p><p> Corporate investments into RPA should be further catalyzed by strong economic growth and low interest rates. These are also central pillars of my reopening macro-view. Technical stagflation is top-of-mind, but the environment is ripe for corporate investment practically. GDP growth may be technically decelerating but is still very high; interest rates and inflation may be climbing, and I expect them to climb further, but are still very low. The strong economy and low rates will increase corporate investment spend, RPA vendors will be key beneficiaries.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的经济增长和低利率应该会进一步刺激企业对RPA的投资。这些也是我重新开放宏观观点的核心支柱。技术滞胀是头等大事，但实际上企业投资的环境已经成熟。GDP增长在技术上可能正在减速，但仍然非常高；利率和通胀可能正在攀升，我预计它们会进一步攀升，但仍然很低。强劲的经济和低利率将增加企业投资支出，RPA供应商将是主要受益者。</blockquote></p><p> Business consulting firms’ RPA focus is both evidence of industry experts’ confidence in the upcoming RPA demand as well as a catalyzer to industry growth. Major professional services firms are pushing their RPA services including Accenture(NYSE:ACN),Deloitte,E&Y,PwC,Cognizant(NASDAQ:CTSH),CGI(NYSE:GIB),Tata Consulting(TCS),Infosys(NYSE:INFY),Genpact(NYSE:G) along with many others. People in the know are investing in RPA as well as investing to grow RPA.</p><p><blockquote>商业咨询公司对 RPA 的关注既是行业专家对即将到来的 RPA 需求充满信心的证明，也是行业增长的催化剂。主要的专业服务公司正在推广他们的RPA服务，包括埃森哲（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ACN）、德勤、安永、普华永道、Cognizant（纳斯达克股票代码：CTSH）、CGI（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GIB）、塔塔咨询（TCS）、印孚瑟斯（纽约证券交易所股票代码：INFY）、Genpact（纽约证券交易所股票代码：G）以及许多其他公司。知情人士正在投资RPA，也在投资发展RPA。</blockquote></p><p> <b>As the Leading RPA Vendor, UiPath has a Bright Near-Medium Term Outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>作为领先的 RPA 供应商，UiPath 拥有光明的近中期前景</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> UiPath is the undisputed leader in the RPA space. Gartner produces a Magic Quadrant for the industry (chart below) which compares market players in their ability to execute and on their vision. UiPath is above the rest with best-in-class execution ability with a complete vision. UiPath’s domination is obvious; this is its third consecutive year in the leader chair. The Forrester Wave, another trusted technology services research firm,places UiPath in the pole position on its matrix which compares current offerings, strategy, and market presence. UiPath’s leadership is reflected in its market share; UiPath has a 29% market share of the RPA space, more than double its nearest competitor. UiPath is dominating the secular growth enterprise software segment that is RPA.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath是RPA领域无可争议的领导者。Gartner为行业制作了一个魔力象限（下图），比较市场参与者的执行能力和愿景。UiPath以其一流的执行能力和完整的愿景脱颖而出。UiPath 的统治地位显而易见；这是它连续第三年担任领导职务。另一家值得信赖的技术服务研究公司 Forrester Wave 在其比较当前产品、战略和市场份额的矩阵中将 UiPath 置于领先地位。UiPath 的领先地位体现在其市场份额上；UiPath 在 RPA 领域拥有 29% 的市场份额，是其最接近的竞争对手的两倍多。UiPath在RPA这一长期增长的企业软件领域占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53eae62a5495303c0d14baf4748d3ef0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"718\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0401f457f330522fdcea2beed7b2efd4\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"619\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: The Forrester Wave as displayed on SmartBridge</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SmartBridge 上显示的 Forrester Wave</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As the spending towards RPA grows so will UiPath’s revenue. As both the technical and market share leader it should see a very large percentage of the growing RPA spend. UiPath is among the best positioned to capitalize on the macroeconomic and corporate spending dynamics of the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>随着 RPA 支出的增长，UiPath 的收入也在增长。作为技术和市场份额的领导者，它应该会看到很大一部分不断增长的RPA支出。UiPath是最有能力利用未来几个月宏观经济和企业支出动态的人之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARR is Important and ARR will Get a Boost</b></p><p><blockquote><b>ARR很重要，ARR会得到提升</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent earnings call was very informative on UiPath’s ARR strategy. The company will be focusing on annual contracts instead of long-term ones. Usually, I wouldn’t be fond of this move as it means lower revenue visibility despite the pricing advantages of short-duration contracts. But in this case, I think that it’s the right thing to do. Annual contracts drive higher ROI for UiPath customers; according to management, customers make better use of UiPath when they get as much as they need instead of front-loading robots to take advantage of better prices through discounts. This is financially favorable for UiPath as well since long-term contracts tend to include price discounts; decreasing contract duration will result in fewer discounts and higher margins for UiPath.</p><p><blockquote>最近的财报看涨期权对 UiPath 的 ARR 战略提供了很多信息。该公司将专注于年度合同，而不是长期合同。通常情况下，我不会喜欢这一举措，因为尽管短期合同具有定价优势，但这意味着收入能见度会降低。但在这种情况下，我认为这样做是正确的。年度合同为UiPath客户带来更高的投资回报率；根据管理层的说法，当客户得到他们需要的东西时，他们会更好地利用UiPath，而不是前装机器人通过折扣来利用更好的价格。这对 UiPath 来说在财务上也是有利的，因为长期合同往往包括价格折扣；合同期限的缩短将导致 UiPath 的折扣减少和利润率提高。</blockquote></p><p> Annual recurring revenue is critical for any service that offers subscriptions. This is due to the resiliency of recurring revenues; contracts are near-impossible and subscriptions are difficult to cancel in a downturn. Moreover, subscription software products have a learning curve and are difficult to churn from. Subscription revenues are highly visible and are highly valued by the market evident in the commonness of nosebleed valuations in the SaaS space. ARR will be key to watch for UiPath as self-described as their “most important metric”.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何提供订阅的服务来说，年度经常性收入都至关重要。这是由于经常性收入的弹性；在经济低迷时期，合同几乎不可能签订，订阅也很难取消。此外，订阅软件产品有一个学习曲线，很难流失。订阅收入是高度可见的，并受到市场的高度重视，这在SaaS领域流鼻血估值的普遍性中显而易见。ARR 将是值得关注的关键，因为 UiPath 自称是他们 “最重要的指标”。</blockquote></p><p> The switch to shorter-duration contracts will inflate ARR at the cost of revenue volatility.ASC 606 mandates that a percentage of revenue be recognized immediately and the rest amortized for long-term contracts. This artificially increases front-period revenues. UiPath focusing on annual ramping as opposed to long-term deals will reduce near-term revenues. However, ARR will increase as yearly amounts will increase due to lower discounts. I believe that higher ARR is what the market values and that this switch will benefit UiPath in market sentiment as well as operationally.</p><p><blockquote>转向短期合同将以收入波动为代价推高 ARR。 ASC 606 要求立即确认一定比例的收入，其余部分用于长期合同摊销。这人为地增加了前期收入。UiPath 专注于年度增长而不是长期交易，这将减少近期收入。然而，由于折扣降低，每年的金额将会增加，ARR将会增加。我相信更高的 ARR 是市场的价值，这种转变将使 UiPath 在市场情绪和运营方面受益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Take Advantage of the Current Decline</b></p><p><blockquote><b>利用当前的下跌</b></blockquote></p><p> UiPath shares declined dramatically in September to deeply below IPO levels. The drawdown is even more surprising given the excellent results the company announced which was met with an immediate ~10% fall.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath 股价在 9 月份大幅下跌，远低于 IPO 水平。鉴于该公司公布的出色业绩立即下跌了约 10%，此次下跌就更加令人惊讶了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c743698f0cef665c83ca663349c5dc9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I see two main reasons for the falling-knife-like price action in the face of excellent operating performance: weak guidance and early investors leaving the train.</p><p><blockquote>面对出色的经营业绩，我认为价格出现落刀式下跌的主要原因有两个：指导乏力和早期投资者离开列车。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> UiPath announced results that beat across the board. UiPath delivered a top-line beat of $195.5 mn in revenue vs. the consensus estimate of $186.5 coupled with an ARR growth of 60% YoY vs. 55% consensus expectations. The company delivered operating profits vs. expectations of deep losses along with almost $30 mn narrower than expected FCF burn. So why didn’t the market like the results? My guess is high expectations. I think that the guidance was low looking further into the release and prior releases. UiPath beat its ARR guidance this quarter by a whopping $23.5 mn ($726.5 mn vs. at the mid-point of $702 mn - $704 mn guidance range). However, full-year guidance was only increased by $26 mn (at the mid-point, the range increased from $850 mn - $855 mn to $876 mn - $881 mn). What the market is reading here is that the demand environment seems to be slowing in the second half of the year and that the growth may decelerate from here out.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath 公布的业绩全面超出预期。UiPath 的营收为 1.955 亿美元，而市场普遍预期为 1.865 亿美元，ARR 同比增长 60%，而市场普遍预期为 55%。该公司实现的营业利润与预期的巨额亏损相比，自由现金流消耗量比预期减少了近 3000 万美元。那么，为什么市场不喜欢结果呢？我猜是期望很高。我认为，进一步研究版本和以前的版本，指导是低的。UiPath 本季度超出其 ARR 指导高达 2350 万美元（7.265 亿美元，而指导区间为 7.02 亿美元至 7.04 亿美元）。然而，全年指导仅增加了2600万美元（在中点，范围从8.5亿美元-8.55亿美元增加到8.76亿美元-8.81亿美元）。市场在这里读到的是，下半年的需求环境似乎正在放缓，从现在开始增长可能会放缓。</blockquote></p><p> I disagree with the market. I think that the management is sandbagging the guidance and leaving itself room to overdeliver. I highly doubt that the demand for its products will decrease in this environment but only accelerate and the set-up for alpha is great over the near term.</p><p><blockquote>我不同意市场。我认为管理层正在混淆指导意见，并给自己留下超额交付的空间。我非常怀疑在这种环境下对其产品的需求会减少，但只会加速，而且在短期内，alpha 的需求会很好。</blockquote></p><p> A lot of early investors cashed out further pushing down the price. UiPath’s IPO lockup expired on the 9th of September. This can be the case with IPOs as many venture and pre-IPO investors are not able to sell their shares for a certain period.</p><p><blockquote>许多早期投资者套现，进一步压低了价格。UiPath 的 IPO 禁售期于 9 月 9 日到期。IPO 可能就是这种情况，因为许多风险投资和 IPO 前投资者在一定时期内无法出售股票。</blockquote></p><p> Now is a great time to buy with a short-term horizon. Below is a chart of UiPath’s forward revenue multiple and its share price (values on the right axis). Company multiples decreased proportionally to its share price, underlying growth remained resilient. A lot of the sellers are shaken out today and, I think, the downside from here will require concrete negative news while a return to IPO multiples will only need “some” good news. Risk-reward is skewed in the direction of the bull. With solid catalysts on the way, I think that UiPath will perform nicely over the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>现在是短期买入的好时机。下面是 UiPath 的远期收入倍数及其股价（右轴上的数值）的图表。公司市盈率与其股价成比例下降，但潜在增长保持弹性。今天很多卖家都被震撼了，我认为，从现在开始的下跌需要具体的负面消息，而恢复 IPO 倍数只需要 “一些 ”好消息。风险回报偏向牛市方向。随着固体催化剂的到来，我认为 UiPath 在未来几个月将表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1ebe0ce2030acb61150c809de27a646\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CapitalIQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CapitalIQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Competition is a Key Longer-Term Issue</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争是一个关键的长期问题</b></blockquote></p><p> I’m less certain on future returns, however. The RPA space is attracting a lot of attention from giant enterprise vendors such as Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT),Salesforce(NYSE:CRM), and ServiceNow(NYSE:NOW), in addition to many other behemoths as well as pureplay competitors (competitive landscape is available in the charts above). Although this much attention from such important companies should be construed as a bullish sign in the viability of the product, competitive threats cannot be undermined. We see clearly that UiPath is far above the rest both in terms of capabilities and in market penetration, but these advantages may not be forever. The competitors mentioned have infinite financial resources and have a much, much wider sales network than that of UiPath. If these competitors decide to prioritize RPA, the outlook could be gloomy for UiPath.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我对未来的回报不太确定。RPA 领域吸引了微软（纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT）、Salesforce（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CRM）和 ServiceNow（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NOW）等大型企业供应商的大量关注，此外还有许多其他巨头以及 pureplay 竞争对手（竞争格局可在上面的图表中找到）。尽管来自如此重要的公司的如此多的关注应该被解释为产品可行性的看涨迹象，但竞争威胁不能被削弱。我们清楚地看到，UiPath无论是在能力上还是在市场渗透率上都遥遥领先于其他公司，但这些优势可能不会永远存在。提到的竞争对手拥有无限的财力，并且拥有比UiPath广泛得多的销售网络。如果这些竞争对手决定优先考虑 RPA，UiPath 的前景可能会很黯淡。</blockquote></p><p> Increasing competition seems to be the view of industry experts as well. The Gartner report expects pricing to decrease in the coming years. This is likely the result of more similar products on the market eroding pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>竞争加剧似乎也是行业专家的观点。Gartner 报告预计未来几年定价将会下降。这很可能是市场上更多同类产品侵蚀定价权的结果。</blockquote></p><p> I see little risk over the near term. With UiPath as the leader, it should be best positioned for the upcoming high-demand environment. Many enterprises want single vendors which will be a benefit for UiPath today as if one vendor is chosen it will likely be the one with the best product offering. However, if UiPath’s technical leadership narrows, the exact opposite could be the case.</p><p><blockquote>我认为短期内风险不大。有了UiPath作为领导者，它应该在即将到来的高需求环境中处于最佳位置。许多企业想要单一供应商，这对今天的UiPath来说是一个好处，因为如果选择了一个供应商，它很可能是提供最好产品的供应商。然而，如果 UiPath 的技术领先优势缩小，情况可能恰恰相反。</blockquote></p><p> There is no reason to believe that UiPath will lose its leadership position currently. The company is investing heavily into R&D (32% of revenues over the past year) and the investment is bearing fruit with a lot of improvements/products on the horizon (document understanding, task mining, platform-agnostic capabilities, integration, and many more). However, the competition is a must-watch for UiPath investors.</p><p><blockquote>目前没有理由相信 UiPath 会失去其领导地位。该公司正在大力投资R&D（占过去一年收入的32%），投资正在结出硕果，许多改进/产品即将推出（文档理解、任务挖掘、平台无关功能、集成等等）。然而，对于 UiPath 投资者来说，这场竞争是必看的。</blockquote></p><p> This isn’t a dealbreaker as long as UiPath has the leading position, or at least until we see one or more of these enterprise software giants devoting serious resources towards the space. But the competition is still an issue as it creates execution risk; UiPath’s lunch is up for grabs if it can’t protect it.</p><p><blockquote>只要 UiPath 处于领先地位，或者至少在我们看到其中一家或多家企业软件巨头在这一领域投入大量资源之前，这就不会成为交易破坏者。但竞争仍然是一个问题，因为它会产生执行风险；如果 UiPath 不能保护它，它的午餐就会被抢走。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Industry Switch to Cloud Bears Execution Risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>行业转向云带来执行风险</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The future of the industry lies in the cloud; UiPath has a limited cloud offering.Only 2,850 out of 9,100+ UiPath customers have adopted the company’s cloud offering the Automation Cloud. With a lot of these enterprises likely using hybrid solutions, UiPath’s cloud computing capabilities lag behind its on-site solutions. As innovative as UiPath is it will likely manage the transformation, but again, this presents an additional execution risk.</p><p><blockquote>行业的未来在于云端；UiPath的云产品有限。在 9,100 多名 UiPath 客户中，只有 2,850 人采用了该公司提供的自动化云服务。由于这些企业中有很多可能使用混合解决方案，UiPath 的云计算能力落后于其现场解决方案。尽管UiPath很有创新性，但它可能会管理转换，但这又带来了额外的执行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation is the Ultimate Long-Term Worry Despite Excellent KPIs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>尽管关键绩效指标出色，但估值仍是最终的长期担忧</b></blockquote></p><p> UiPath has amazing KPIs. Its revenue and ARR growth are excellent and it's achieving this through minimal cash burn. The 144% net revenue retention rate is among the highest in the SaaS space and shows the value of the product. The space to land and expand is also growing with the number of customers rapidly increasing.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath有惊人的KPI。其收入和 ARR 增长非常出色，并且是通过最少的现金消耗实现这一目标的。144%的净收入保留率在SaaS领域名列前茅，显示了产品的价值。随着客户数量的迅速增加，落地和扩张的空间也在增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, these metrics, like the company’s leadership position, may not be permanent and may not be enough to support a lofty valuation. The entire SaaS space is extremely expensive in my opinion, and I would not consider being a long-term holder without absolute confidence. I don’t have absolute confidence in UiPath due to material execution risk, and to hold long-term I’d want to be compensated for that risk in valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这些指标，如公司的领导地位，可能不是永久性的，也可能不足以支撑高估值。在我看来，整个SaaS空间极其昂贵，如果没有绝对的信心，我不会考虑做一个长期持有者。由于执行风险很大，我对 UiPath 没有绝对的信心，如果要长期持有，我希望在估值中对这种风险进行补偿。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, a lot of the benefits of UiPath are in the price in my opinion despite the recent drawdown. Below I’ve included my data table along with an output graph comparing two-year forward multiples with expected two-year revenue growth. The chart has a high r-squared meaning that the market values the relationship. UiPath is trading in line with peers implying that it’s pretty much fairly valued even when factoring in its very high growth expectations.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，尽管最近有所下降，但在我看来，UiPath的很多好处都体现在价格上。下面，我附上了我的数据表和产出图表，将两年远期倍数与两年预期收入增长进行了比较。该图表具有很高的r平方，这意味着市场重视这种关系。UiPath 的交易价格与同行一致，这意味着即使考虑到其非常高的增长预期，它的估值也相当合理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/890bbbc5170ad5c0ca1ce941f057156b\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"656\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CapitalIQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CapitalIQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/052ee96459416e5a26793dd2a4dccc87\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I want to highlight that this comparison only justifies company valuation with respect to the SaaS space. If the SaaS space was valued like a normal industry, then I would most likely argue to buy UiPath and hold for the long-term as a quality company at a fair price. The absolute valuations are ridiculous in my opinion. The peer group average is 25x two-year forward revenues. Think about that for a minute. The Russell 3000 (represented here by iShares Russell 3000 ETF(NYSEARCA:IWV)) has a P/E ratio of 23x. This is trailing not forward. The SaaS group is trading at a higher ratio of not earnings but revenues. The space is very expensive and with rising interest rates, open to corrections. Of course, I see value and opportunity in certain SaaS plays, but I’m choosing to abstain here.</p><p><blockquote>我想强调的是，这种比较只能证明公司在SaaS领域的估值是合理的。如果SaaS领域的估值像普通行业一样，那么我很可能会主张收购UiPath，并以合理的价格作为一家优质公司长期持有。在我看来，绝对估值是荒谬的。同行群体平均水平是两年远期收入的 25 倍。想一想。Russell 3000（此处由 iShares Russell 3000 ETF（NYSEARCA:IWV）代表）的市盈率为 23 倍。这是落后而不是前进。SaaS 集团的交易比例较高，而不是收益，而是收入。这个空间非常昂贵，而且随着利率上升，很容易出现调整。当然，我看到了某些 SaaS 游戏的价值和机会，但我选择弃权。</blockquote></p><p> The issue was manifested in the recent quarter. The stock sold off despite the excellent results. Though I don’t expect to see this over the next few quarters due to the excellent demand environment, this could be a risk thereafter. Despite the recent price decrease buffering the downside over the near term, there are still very high expectations of UiPath leaving further room for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>这个问题在最近一个季度表现出来。尽管业绩优异，但股票还是被抛售了。虽然由于良好的需求环境，我预计在未来几个季度不会看到这种情况，但这可能会成为一个风险。尽管最近的价格下降缓冲了短期内的下行空间，但人们对 UiPath 的期望仍然很高，这给人们留下了进一步的失望空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Neutral in the Long-Term Despite Bullish on Short/Medium</b></p><p><blockquote><b>尽管短期/中期看涨，但长期中性</b></blockquote></p><p> UiPath is a unique software play where I am bullish over the near term, but prefer to not own over the longer. Usually, I would see drawdown risk in most of my preferred software plays over the short term, but would see the company growing into its valuation over time. Here, I see strong near-term alpha with the company delivering beyond expectations and seeing price gains towards where its been. I am much less confident in the opportunity after the RPA demand arising from corporate capital spending towards labor efficiency gets priced in which should happen over the next year.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath 是一款独特的软件，我短期内看好它，但长期内不愿持有。通常，我会看到我喜欢的大多数软件在短期内存在提款风险，但会看到该公司的估值随着时间的推移而增长。在这里，我看到了强劲的近期阿尔法，该公司的交付超出了预期，并看到价格上涨。在企业为提高劳动效率而进行的资本支出产生的 RPA 需求被定价后，我对这一机会的信心大大降低。</blockquote></p><p> I want to add a P.S. here and entertain the bull thesis. I am not an engineer. I have no competitive advantage in understanding the capabilities and advantages of software services. Thus, I can’t have confidence in my analysis (reading industry reports) of technology. If you have such capabilities and believe that UiPath has a strong competitive moat that may be difficult to replicate even with intense resource spend, then by all means be bullish over any time horizon (and please let me know in the comments).</p><p><blockquote>我想在这里加一个附言，娱乐牛市论点。我不是工程师。我在理解软件服务的能力和优势方面没有竞争优势。因此，我对自己对技术的分析（阅读行业报告）没有信心。如果您拥有这样的能力，并且相信 UiPath 拥有强大的竞争护城河，即使投入大量资源也可能难以复制，那么无论如何都要看好任何时间范围（请在评论中告诉我）。</blockquote></p><p> Rare case as would be the opposite usually. I’m not an engineer and don’t understand exact differentiators and capabilities. If there’s something UiPath does that can’t be replicated even with high resource spend, then bullish over the long-term as well (please let me know in the comments).</p><p><blockquote>罕见的情况通常是相反的。我不是工程师，不了解确切的区别和能力。如果 UiPath 做了什么即使投入大量资源也无法复制，那么从长远来看也是看好的（请在评论中告诉我）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UiPath: Buy For The Near Term, Hold For The Long Term<blockquote>UiPath：短期买入，长期持有</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUiPath: Buy For The Near Term, Hold For The Long Term<blockquote>UiPath：短期买入，长期持有</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-19 11:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>UiPath should deliver alpha over the near term thanks to its leadership position in the RPA space. RPA space should see elevated demand from labor issues.</li> <li>Annual ramping of contracts should boost UiPath ARR which should in turn reflect positively in its price-action.</li> <li>Long-term is much less clear with high absolute and fair relative valuation combined with material execution risk.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dee1fdf98ac633e790ad107e02096867\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>piranka/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于其在 RPA 领域的领先地位，UiPath 应该会在短期内提供 alpha。RPA领域应该会因为劳动力问题而增加需求。</li><li>合同的年度增加应该会提振 UiPath ARR，这反过来会对其价格行为产生积极影响。</li><li>由于高绝对和公平的相对估值加上重大执行风险，长期前景就不太明朗了。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>piranka/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> UiPath(NYSE:PATH) is the leader of the robotic process automation (RPA) space. RPA will see increased demand in the current high-growth macro environment with labor shortage issues. UiPath is best positioned to capitalize on the opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PATH）是机器人流程自动化 (RPA) 领域的领导者。在当前劳动力短缺问题高增长的宏观环境下，RPA 的需求将会增加。UiPath 最适合抓住这个机会。</blockquote></p><p> The company is switching its focus to annual ramping which will benefit it operationally with happier customers and higher margins and inflate what matters most for investors, its annual recurring revenue (ARR).</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在将重点转向年度增长，这将使其运营受益，客户更满意，利润率更高，并提高对投资者最重要的年度经常性收入 (ARR)。</blockquote></p><p> Despite my bullishness over the short term, I’m less confident over the long. I see execution risks primarily arising from cloud transition and competitive threats. The relatively fair, but absolutely high valuation opens the door to sub-par price performance over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我在短期内看好，但从长期来看，我信心不足。我认为执行风险主要来自云迁移和竞争威胁。相对公平但绝对高的估值为长期低于标准的价格表现打开了大门。</blockquote></p><p> I recommend buying UiPath and monitoring noted issues. In the current picture, I recommend selling UiPath after increased demand from the macro catalysts is factored into the price.</p><p><blockquote>我建议购买UiPath并监控注意到的问题。在目前的情况下，我建议在宏观催化剂需求增加后出售 UiPath。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Great Macro Backdrop for RPA Demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>RPA需求的宏观背景</b></blockquote></p><p> Demand for RPA will increase over the coming years. The backbone of my macro thesis is sticky wage inflation. There is strong labor demand with many firms downsizing during the pandemic and now all trying to re-grow their workforce in tandem. The private sector is trying to accommodate the strong pent-up demand following the pandemic. The reopening demand is further fueled by unprecedented government stimulus boosting incomes. Labor supply, however, is shrinking, both over the near term with increased incomes and structurally with many forced into early retirement and others taking a sabbatical from work who are evaluating life priorities. The shortage of labor supply and rising labor demand will cause wage inflation. Rising labor costs will catalyze investments that increase labor efficiency to protect margins; labor efficiency is th ekey value proposition of RPA.</p><p><blockquote>未来几年，对RPA的需求将会增加。我的宏观论文的支柱是粘性工资通胀。劳动力需求强劲，许多公司在疫情期间裁员，现在都试图同时重新增加员工队伍。私营部门正试图满足疫情后被压抑的强劲需求。政府前所未有的增加收入的刺激措施进一步推动了重新开放的需求。然而，劳动力供应正在萎缩，无论是在短期内随着收入的增加，还是结构性的，许多人被迫提前退休，其他人在评估生活优先事项时休假。劳动力供给短缺和劳动力需求上升会造成工资通胀。劳动力成本上升将催化提高劳动效率以保护利润率的投资；劳动效率是RPA的核心价值主张。</blockquote></p><p> The demand for RPA was already very high. RPA was the fastest-growing enterprise software segment in 2020 for the third year in a row according to Gartner. The market research company expects the excellent performance to continue with double-digit growth rates through 2024. Bear in mind that the high labor demand with the reopening picture was unclear at the time of these reports (latest released May 2021) as was the wage inflation and short labor supply. I believe that RPA adoption rates will be even higher than the high expectations due to the favorable macro-backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>对RPA的需求已经非常高。根据 Gartner 的数据，2020 年 RPA 连续第三年成为增长最快的企业软件领域。该市场研究公司预计，出色的业绩将持续到 2024 年两位数的增长率。请记住，在这些报告（最新发布于2021年5月）发布时，重新开放的高劳动力需求以及工资通胀和劳动力供应短缺尚不清楚。我相信，由于有利的宏观背景，RPA的采用率将甚至高于高预期。</blockquote></p><p> Corporate investments into RPA should be further catalyzed by strong economic growth and low interest rates. These are also central pillars of my reopening macro-view. Technical stagflation is top-of-mind, but the environment is ripe for corporate investment practically. GDP growth may be technically decelerating but is still very high; interest rates and inflation may be climbing, and I expect them to climb further, but are still very low. The strong economy and low rates will increase corporate investment spend, RPA vendors will be key beneficiaries.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的经济增长和低利率应该会进一步刺激企业对RPA的投资。这些也是我重新开放宏观观点的核心支柱。技术滞胀是头等大事，但实际上企业投资的环境已经成熟。GDP增长在技术上可能正在减速，但仍然非常高；利率和通胀可能正在攀升，我预计它们会进一步攀升，但仍然很低。强劲的经济和低利率将增加企业投资支出，RPA供应商将是主要受益者。</blockquote></p><p> Business consulting firms’ RPA focus is both evidence of industry experts’ confidence in the upcoming RPA demand as well as a catalyzer to industry growth. Major professional services firms are pushing their RPA services including Accenture(NYSE:ACN),Deloitte,E&Y,PwC,Cognizant(NASDAQ:CTSH),CGI(NYSE:GIB),Tata Consulting(TCS),Infosys(NYSE:INFY),Genpact(NYSE:G) along with many others. People in the know are investing in RPA as well as investing to grow RPA.</p><p><blockquote>商业咨询公司对 RPA 的关注既是行业专家对即将到来的 RPA 需求充满信心的证明，也是行业增长的催化剂。主要的专业服务公司正在推广他们的RPA服务，包括埃森哲（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ACN）、德勤、安永、普华永道、Cognizant（纳斯达克股票代码：CTSH）、CGI（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GIB）、塔塔咨询（TCS）、印孚瑟斯（纽约证券交易所股票代码：INFY）、Genpact（纽约证券交易所股票代码：G）以及许多其他公司。知情人士正在投资RPA，也在投资发展RPA。</blockquote></p><p> <b>As the Leading RPA Vendor, UiPath has a Bright Near-Medium Term Outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>作为领先的 RPA 供应商，UiPath 拥有光明的近中期前景</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> UiPath is the undisputed leader in the RPA space. Gartner produces a Magic Quadrant for the industry (chart below) which compares market players in their ability to execute and on their vision. UiPath is above the rest with best-in-class execution ability with a complete vision. UiPath’s domination is obvious; this is its third consecutive year in the leader chair. The Forrester Wave, another trusted technology services research firm,places UiPath in the pole position on its matrix which compares current offerings, strategy, and market presence. UiPath’s leadership is reflected in its market share; UiPath has a 29% market share of the RPA space, more than double its nearest competitor. UiPath is dominating the secular growth enterprise software segment that is RPA.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath是RPA领域无可争议的领导者。Gartner为行业制作了一个魔力象限（下图），比较市场参与者的执行能力和愿景。UiPath以其一流的执行能力和完整的愿景脱颖而出。UiPath 的统治地位显而易见；这是它连续第三年担任领导职务。另一家值得信赖的技术服务研究公司 Forrester Wave 在其比较当前产品、战略和市场份额的矩阵中将 UiPath 置于领先地位。UiPath 的领先地位体现在其市场份额上；UiPath 在 RPA 领域拥有 29% 的市场份额，是其最接近的竞争对手的两倍多。UiPath在RPA这一长期增长的企业软件领域占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53eae62a5495303c0d14baf4748d3ef0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"718\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0401f457f330522fdcea2beed7b2efd4\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"619\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: The Forrester Wave as displayed on SmartBridge</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SmartBridge 上显示的 Forrester Wave</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As the spending towards RPA grows so will UiPath’s revenue. As both the technical and market share leader it should see a very large percentage of the growing RPA spend. UiPath is among the best positioned to capitalize on the macroeconomic and corporate spending dynamics of the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>随着 RPA 支出的增长，UiPath 的收入也在增长。作为技术和市场份额的领导者，它应该会看到很大一部分不断增长的RPA支出。UiPath是最有能力利用未来几个月宏观经济和企业支出动态的人之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARR is Important and ARR will Get a Boost</b></p><p><blockquote><b>ARR很重要，ARR会得到提升</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent earnings call was very informative on UiPath’s ARR strategy. The company will be focusing on annual contracts instead of long-term ones. Usually, I wouldn’t be fond of this move as it means lower revenue visibility despite the pricing advantages of short-duration contracts. But in this case, I think that it’s the right thing to do. Annual contracts drive higher ROI for UiPath customers; according to management, customers make better use of UiPath when they get as much as they need instead of front-loading robots to take advantage of better prices through discounts. This is financially favorable for UiPath as well since long-term contracts tend to include price discounts; decreasing contract duration will result in fewer discounts and higher margins for UiPath.</p><p><blockquote>最近的财报看涨期权对 UiPath 的 ARR 战略提供了很多信息。该公司将专注于年度合同，而不是长期合同。通常情况下，我不会喜欢这一举措，因为尽管短期合同具有定价优势，但这意味着收入能见度会降低。但在这种情况下，我认为这样做是正确的。年度合同为UiPath客户带来更高的投资回报率；根据管理层的说法，当客户得到他们需要的东西时，他们会更好地利用UiPath，而不是前装机器人通过折扣来利用更好的价格。这对 UiPath 来说在财务上也是有利的，因为长期合同往往包括价格折扣；合同期限的缩短将导致 UiPath 的折扣减少和利润率提高。</blockquote></p><p> Annual recurring revenue is critical for any service that offers subscriptions. This is due to the resiliency of recurring revenues; contracts are near-impossible and subscriptions are difficult to cancel in a downturn. Moreover, subscription software products have a learning curve and are difficult to churn from. Subscription revenues are highly visible and are highly valued by the market evident in the commonness of nosebleed valuations in the SaaS space. ARR will be key to watch for UiPath as self-described as their “most important metric”.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何提供订阅的服务来说，年度经常性收入都至关重要。这是由于经常性收入的弹性；在经济低迷时期，合同几乎不可能签订，订阅也很难取消。此外，订阅软件产品有一个学习曲线，很难流失。订阅收入是高度可见的，并受到市场的高度重视，这在SaaS领域流鼻血估值的普遍性中显而易见。ARR 将是值得关注的关键，因为 UiPath 自称是他们 “最重要的指标”。</blockquote></p><p> The switch to shorter-duration contracts will inflate ARR at the cost of revenue volatility.ASC 606 mandates that a percentage of revenue be recognized immediately and the rest amortized for long-term contracts. This artificially increases front-period revenues. UiPath focusing on annual ramping as opposed to long-term deals will reduce near-term revenues. However, ARR will increase as yearly amounts will increase due to lower discounts. I believe that higher ARR is what the market values and that this switch will benefit UiPath in market sentiment as well as operationally.</p><p><blockquote>转向短期合同将以收入波动为代价推高 ARR。 ASC 606 要求立即确认一定比例的收入，其余部分用于长期合同摊销。这人为地增加了前期收入。UiPath 专注于年度增长而不是长期交易，这将减少近期收入。然而，由于折扣降低，每年的金额将会增加，ARR将会增加。我相信更高的 ARR 是市场的价值，这种转变将使 UiPath 在市场情绪和运营方面受益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Take Advantage of the Current Decline</b></p><p><blockquote><b>利用当前的下跌</b></blockquote></p><p> UiPath shares declined dramatically in September to deeply below IPO levels. The drawdown is even more surprising given the excellent results the company announced which was met with an immediate ~10% fall.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath 股价在 9 月份大幅下跌，远低于 IPO 水平。鉴于该公司公布的出色业绩立即下跌了约 10%，此次下跌就更加令人惊讶了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c743698f0cef665c83ca663349c5dc9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I see two main reasons for the falling-knife-like price action in the face of excellent operating performance: weak guidance and early investors leaving the train.</p><p><blockquote>面对出色的经营业绩，我认为价格出现落刀式下跌的主要原因有两个：指导乏力和早期投资者离开列车。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> UiPath announced results that beat across the board. UiPath delivered a top-line beat of $195.5 mn in revenue vs. the consensus estimate of $186.5 coupled with an ARR growth of 60% YoY vs. 55% consensus expectations. The company delivered operating profits vs. expectations of deep losses along with almost $30 mn narrower than expected FCF burn. So why didn’t the market like the results? My guess is high expectations. I think that the guidance was low looking further into the release and prior releases. UiPath beat its ARR guidance this quarter by a whopping $23.5 mn ($726.5 mn vs. at the mid-point of $702 mn - $704 mn guidance range). However, full-year guidance was only increased by $26 mn (at the mid-point, the range increased from $850 mn - $855 mn to $876 mn - $881 mn). What the market is reading here is that the demand environment seems to be slowing in the second half of the year and that the growth may decelerate from here out.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath 公布的业绩全面超出预期。UiPath 的营收为 1.955 亿美元，而市场普遍预期为 1.865 亿美元，ARR 同比增长 60%，而市场普遍预期为 55%。该公司实现的营业利润与预期的巨额亏损相比，自由现金流消耗量比预期减少了近 3000 万美元。那么，为什么市场不喜欢结果呢？我猜是期望很高。我认为，进一步研究版本和以前的版本，指导是低的。UiPath 本季度超出其 ARR 指导高达 2350 万美元（7.265 亿美元，而指导区间为 7.02 亿美元至 7.04 亿美元）。然而，全年指导仅增加了2600万美元（在中点，范围从8.5亿美元-8.55亿美元增加到8.76亿美元-8.81亿美元）。市场在这里读到的是，下半年的需求环境似乎正在放缓，从现在开始增长可能会放缓。</blockquote></p><p> I disagree with the market. I think that the management is sandbagging the guidance and leaving itself room to overdeliver. I highly doubt that the demand for its products will decrease in this environment but only accelerate and the set-up for alpha is great over the near term.</p><p><blockquote>我不同意市场。我认为管理层正在混淆指导意见，并给自己留下超额交付的空间。我非常怀疑在这种环境下对其产品的需求会减少，但只会加速，而且在短期内，alpha 的需求会很好。</blockquote></p><p> A lot of early investors cashed out further pushing down the price. UiPath’s IPO lockup expired on the 9th of September. This can be the case with IPOs as many venture and pre-IPO investors are not able to sell their shares for a certain period.</p><p><blockquote>许多早期投资者套现，进一步压低了价格。UiPath 的 IPO 禁售期于 9 月 9 日到期。IPO 可能就是这种情况，因为许多风险投资和 IPO 前投资者在一定时期内无法出售股票。</blockquote></p><p> Now is a great time to buy with a short-term horizon. Below is a chart of UiPath’s forward revenue multiple and its share price (values on the right axis). Company multiples decreased proportionally to its share price, underlying growth remained resilient. A lot of the sellers are shaken out today and, I think, the downside from here will require concrete negative news while a return to IPO multiples will only need “some” good news. Risk-reward is skewed in the direction of the bull. With solid catalysts on the way, I think that UiPath will perform nicely over the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>现在是短期买入的好时机。下面是 UiPath 的远期收入倍数及其股价（右轴上的数值）的图表。公司市盈率与其股价成比例下降，但潜在增长保持弹性。今天很多卖家都被震撼了，我认为，从现在开始的下跌需要具体的负面消息，而恢复 IPO 倍数只需要 “一些 ”好消息。风险回报偏向牛市方向。随着固体催化剂的到来，我认为 UiPath 在未来几个月将表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1ebe0ce2030acb61150c809de27a646\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CapitalIQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CapitalIQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Competition is a Key Longer-Term Issue</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争是一个关键的长期问题</b></blockquote></p><p> I’m less certain on future returns, however. The RPA space is attracting a lot of attention from giant enterprise vendors such as Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT),Salesforce(NYSE:CRM), and ServiceNow(NYSE:NOW), in addition to many other behemoths as well as pureplay competitors (competitive landscape is available in the charts above). Although this much attention from such important companies should be construed as a bullish sign in the viability of the product, competitive threats cannot be undermined. We see clearly that UiPath is far above the rest both in terms of capabilities and in market penetration, but these advantages may not be forever. The competitors mentioned have infinite financial resources and have a much, much wider sales network than that of UiPath. If these competitors decide to prioritize RPA, the outlook could be gloomy for UiPath.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我对未来的回报不太确定。RPA 领域吸引了微软（纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT）、Salesforce（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CRM）和 ServiceNow（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NOW）等大型企业供应商的大量关注，此外还有许多其他巨头以及 pureplay 竞争对手（竞争格局可在上面的图表中找到）。尽管来自如此重要的公司的如此多的关注应该被解释为产品可行性的看涨迹象，但竞争威胁不能被削弱。我们清楚地看到，UiPath无论是在能力上还是在市场渗透率上都遥遥领先于其他公司，但这些优势可能不会永远存在。提到的竞争对手拥有无限的财力，并且拥有比UiPath广泛得多的销售网络。如果这些竞争对手决定优先考虑 RPA，UiPath 的前景可能会很黯淡。</blockquote></p><p> Increasing competition seems to be the view of industry experts as well. The Gartner report expects pricing to decrease in the coming years. This is likely the result of more similar products on the market eroding pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>竞争加剧似乎也是行业专家的观点。Gartner 报告预计未来几年定价将会下降。这很可能是市场上更多同类产品侵蚀定价权的结果。</blockquote></p><p> I see little risk over the near term. With UiPath as the leader, it should be best positioned for the upcoming high-demand environment. Many enterprises want single vendors which will be a benefit for UiPath today as if one vendor is chosen it will likely be the one with the best product offering. However, if UiPath’s technical leadership narrows, the exact opposite could be the case.</p><p><blockquote>我认为短期内风险不大。有了UiPath作为领导者，它应该在即将到来的高需求环境中处于最佳位置。许多企业想要单一供应商，这对今天的UiPath来说是一个好处，因为如果选择了一个供应商，它很可能是提供最好产品的供应商。然而，如果 UiPath 的技术领先优势缩小，情况可能恰恰相反。</blockquote></p><p> There is no reason to believe that UiPath will lose its leadership position currently. The company is investing heavily into R&D (32% of revenues over the past year) and the investment is bearing fruit with a lot of improvements/products on the horizon (document understanding, task mining, platform-agnostic capabilities, integration, and many more). However, the competition is a must-watch for UiPath investors.</p><p><blockquote>目前没有理由相信 UiPath 会失去其领导地位。该公司正在大力投资R&D（占过去一年收入的32%），投资正在结出硕果，许多改进/产品即将推出（文档理解、任务挖掘、平台无关功能、集成等等）。然而，对于 UiPath 投资者来说，这场竞争是必看的。</blockquote></p><p> This isn’t a dealbreaker as long as UiPath has the leading position, or at least until we see one or more of these enterprise software giants devoting serious resources towards the space. But the competition is still an issue as it creates execution risk; UiPath’s lunch is up for grabs if it can’t protect it.</p><p><blockquote>只要 UiPath 处于领先地位，或者至少在我们看到其中一家或多家企业软件巨头在这一领域投入大量资源之前，这就不会成为交易破坏者。但竞争仍然是一个问题，因为它会产生执行风险；如果 UiPath 不能保护它，它的午餐就会被抢走。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Industry Switch to Cloud Bears Execution Risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>行业转向云带来执行风险</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The future of the industry lies in the cloud; UiPath has a limited cloud offering.Only 2,850 out of 9,100+ UiPath customers have adopted the company’s cloud offering the Automation Cloud. With a lot of these enterprises likely using hybrid solutions, UiPath’s cloud computing capabilities lag behind its on-site solutions. As innovative as UiPath is it will likely manage the transformation, but again, this presents an additional execution risk.</p><p><blockquote>行业的未来在于云端；UiPath的云产品有限。在 9,100 多名 UiPath 客户中，只有 2,850 人采用了该公司提供的自动化云服务。由于这些企业中有很多可能使用混合解决方案，UiPath 的云计算能力落后于其现场解决方案。尽管UiPath很有创新性，但它可能会管理转换，但这又带来了额外的执行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation is the Ultimate Long-Term Worry Despite Excellent KPIs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>尽管关键绩效指标出色，但估值仍是最终的长期担忧</b></blockquote></p><p> UiPath has amazing KPIs. Its revenue and ARR growth are excellent and it's achieving this through minimal cash burn. The 144% net revenue retention rate is among the highest in the SaaS space and shows the value of the product. The space to land and expand is also growing with the number of customers rapidly increasing.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath有惊人的KPI。其收入和 ARR 增长非常出色，并且是通过最少的现金消耗实现这一目标的。144%的净收入保留率在SaaS领域名列前茅，显示了产品的价值。随着客户数量的迅速增加，落地和扩张的空间也在增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, these metrics, like the company’s leadership position, may not be permanent and may not be enough to support a lofty valuation. The entire SaaS space is extremely expensive in my opinion, and I would not consider being a long-term holder without absolute confidence. I don’t have absolute confidence in UiPath due to material execution risk, and to hold long-term I’d want to be compensated for that risk in valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这些指标，如公司的领导地位，可能不是永久性的，也可能不足以支撑高估值。在我看来，整个SaaS空间极其昂贵，如果没有绝对的信心，我不会考虑做一个长期持有者。由于执行风险很大，我对 UiPath 没有绝对的信心，如果要长期持有，我希望在估值中对这种风险进行补偿。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately, a lot of the benefits of UiPath are in the price in my opinion despite the recent drawdown. Below I’ve included my data table along with an output graph comparing two-year forward multiples with expected two-year revenue growth. The chart has a high r-squared meaning that the market values the relationship. UiPath is trading in line with peers implying that it’s pretty much fairly valued even when factoring in its very high growth expectations.</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，尽管最近有所下降，但在我看来，UiPath的很多好处都体现在价格上。下面，我附上了我的数据表和产出图表，将两年远期倍数与两年预期收入增长进行了比较。该图表具有很高的r平方，这意味着市场重视这种关系。UiPath 的交易价格与同行一致，这意味着即使考虑到其非常高的增长预期，它的估值也相当合理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/890bbbc5170ad5c0ca1ce941f057156b\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"656\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CapitalIQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CapitalIQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/052ee96459416e5a26793dd2a4dccc87\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I want to highlight that this comparison only justifies company valuation with respect to the SaaS space. If the SaaS space was valued like a normal industry, then I would most likely argue to buy UiPath and hold for the long-term as a quality company at a fair price. The absolute valuations are ridiculous in my opinion. The peer group average is 25x two-year forward revenues. Think about that for a minute. The Russell 3000 (represented here by iShares Russell 3000 ETF(NYSEARCA:IWV)) has a P/E ratio of 23x. This is trailing not forward. The SaaS group is trading at a higher ratio of not earnings but revenues. The space is very expensive and with rising interest rates, open to corrections. Of course, I see value and opportunity in certain SaaS plays, but I’m choosing to abstain here.</p><p><blockquote>我想强调的是，这种比较只能证明公司在SaaS领域的估值是合理的。如果SaaS领域的估值像普通行业一样，那么我很可能会主张收购UiPath，并以合理的价格作为一家优质公司长期持有。在我看来，绝对估值是荒谬的。同行群体平均水平是两年远期收入的 25 倍。想一想。Russell 3000（此处由 iShares Russell 3000 ETF（NYSEARCA:IWV）代表）的市盈率为 23 倍。这是落后而不是前进。SaaS 集团的交易比例较高，而不是收益，而是收入。这个空间非常昂贵，而且随着利率上升，很容易出现调整。当然，我看到了某些 SaaS 游戏的价值和机会，但我选择弃权。</blockquote></p><p> The issue was manifested in the recent quarter. The stock sold off despite the excellent results. Though I don’t expect to see this over the next few quarters due to the excellent demand environment, this could be a risk thereafter. Despite the recent price decrease buffering the downside over the near term, there are still very high expectations of UiPath leaving further room for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>这个问题在最近一个季度表现出来。尽管业绩优异，但股票还是被抛售了。虽然由于良好的需求环境，我预计在未来几个季度不会看到这种情况，但这可能会成为一个风险。尽管最近的价格下降缓冲了短期内的下行空间，但人们对 UiPath 的期望仍然很高，这给人们留下了进一步的失望空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Neutral in the Long-Term Despite Bullish on Short/Medium</b></p><p><blockquote><b>尽管短期/中期看涨，但长期中性</b></blockquote></p><p> UiPath is a unique software play where I am bullish over the near term, but prefer to not own over the longer. Usually, I would see drawdown risk in most of my preferred software plays over the short term, but would see the company growing into its valuation over time. Here, I see strong near-term alpha with the company delivering beyond expectations and seeing price gains towards where its been. I am much less confident in the opportunity after the RPA demand arising from corporate capital spending towards labor efficiency gets priced in which should happen over the next year.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath 是一款独特的软件，我短期内看好它，但长期内不愿持有。通常，我会看到我喜欢的大多数软件在短期内存在提款风险，但会看到该公司的估值随着时间的推移而增长。在这里，我看到了强劲的近期阿尔法，该公司的交付超出了预期，并看到价格上涨。在企业为提高劳动效率而进行的资本支出产生的 RPA 需求被定价后，我对这一机会的信心大大降低。</blockquote></p><p> I want to add a P.S. here and entertain the bull thesis. I am not an engineer. I have no competitive advantage in understanding the capabilities and advantages of software services. Thus, I can’t have confidence in my analysis (reading industry reports) of technology. If you have such capabilities and believe that UiPath has a strong competitive moat that may be difficult to replicate even with intense resource spend, then by all means be bullish over any time horizon (and please let me know in the comments).</p><p><blockquote>我想在这里加一个附言，娱乐牛市论点。我不是工程师。我在理解软件服务的能力和优势方面没有竞争优势。因此，我对自己对技术的分析（阅读行业报告）没有信心。如果您拥有这样的能力，并且相信 UiPath 拥有强大的竞争护城河，即使投入大量资源也可能难以复制，那么无论如何都要看好任何时间范围（请在评论中告诉我）。</blockquote></p><p> Rare case as would be the opposite usually. I’m not an engineer and don’t understand exact differentiators and capabilities. If there’s something UiPath does that can’t be replicated even with high resource spend, then bullish over the long-term as well (please let me know in the comments).</p><p><blockquote>罕见的情况通常是相反的。我不是工程师，不了解确切的区别和能力。如果 UiPath 做了什么即使投入大量资源也无法复制，那么从长远来看也是看好的（请在评论中告诉我）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460444-uipath-buy-for-the-near-hold-for-the-long-term\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PATH":"UiPath"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460444-uipath-buy-for-the-near-hold-for-the-long-term","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120786064","content_text":"Summary\n\nUiPath should deliver alpha over the near term thanks to its leadership position in the RPA space. RPA space should see elevated demand from labor issues.\nAnnual ramping of contracts should boost UiPath ARR which should in turn reflect positively in its price-action.\nLong-term is much less clear with high absolute and fair relative valuation combined with material execution risk.\n\npiranka/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nUiPath(NYSE:PATH) is the leader of the robotic process automation (RPA) space. RPA will see increased demand in the current high-growth macro environment with labor shortage issues. UiPath is best positioned to capitalize on the opportunity.\nThe company is switching its focus to annual ramping which will benefit it operationally with happier customers and higher margins and inflate what matters most for investors, its annual recurring revenue (ARR).\nDespite my bullishness over the short term, I’m less confident over the long. I see execution risks primarily arising from cloud transition and competitive threats. The relatively fair, but absolutely high valuation opens the door to sub-par price performance over the long term.\nI recommend buying UiPath and monitoring noted issues. In the current picture, I recommend selling UiPath after increased demand from the macro catalysts is factored into the price.\nGreat Macro Backdrop for RPA Demand\nDemand for RPA will increase over the coming years. The backbone of my macro thesis is sticky wage inflation. There is strong labor demand with many firms downsizing during the pandemic and now all trying to re-grow their workforce in tandem. The private sector is trying to accommodate the strong pent-up demand following the pandemic. The reopening demand is further fueled by unprecedented government stimulus boosting incomes. Labor supply, however, is shrinking, both over the near term with increased incomes and structurally with many forced into early retirement and others taking a sabbatical from work who are evaluating life priorities. The shortage of labor supply and rising labor demand will cause wage inflation. Rising labor costs will catalyze investments that increase labor efficiency to protect margins; labor efficiency is th ekey value proposition of RPA.\nThe demand for RPA was already very high. RPA was the fastest-growing enterprise software segment in 2020 for the third year in a row according to Gartner. The market research company expects the excellent performance to continue with double-digit growth rates through 2024. Bear in mind that the high labor demand with the reopening picture was unclear at the time of these reports (latest released May 2021) as was the wage inflation and short labor supply. I believe that RPA adoption rates will be even higher than the high expectations due to the favorable macro-backdrop.\nCorporate investments into RPA should be further catalyzed by strong economic growth and low interest rates. These are also central pillars of my reopening macro-view. Technical stagflation is top-of-mind, but the environment is ripe for corporate investment practically. GDP growth may be technically decelerating but is still very high; interest rates and inflation may be climbing, and I expect them to climb further, but are still very low. The strong economy and low rates will increase corporate investment spend, RPA vendors will be key beneficiaries.\nBusiness consulting firms’ RPA focus is both evidence of industry experts’ confidence in the upcoming RPA demand as well as a catalyzer to industry growth. Major professional services firms are pushing their RPA services including Accenture(NYSE:ACN),Deloitte,E&Y,PwC,Cognizant(NASDAQ:CTSH),CGI(NYSE:GIB),Tata Consulting(TCS),Infosys(NYSE:INFY),Genpact(NYSE:G) along with many others. People in the know are investing in RPA as well as investing to grow RPA.\nAs the Leading RPA Vendor, UiPath has a Bright Near-Medium Term Outlook\nUiPath is the undisputed leader in the RPA space. Gartner produces a Magic Quadrant for the industry (chart below) which compares market players in their ability to execute and on their vision. UiPath is above the rest with best-in-class execution ability with a complete vision. UiPath’s domination is obvious; this is its third consecutive year in the leader chair. The Forrester Wave, another trusted technology services research firm,places UiPath in the pole position on its matrix which compares current offerings, strategy, and market presence. UiPath’s leadership is reflected in its market share; UiPath has a 29% market share of the RPA space, more than double its nearest competitor. UiPath is dominating the secular growth enterprise software segment that is RPA.\n\nSource: The Forrester Wave as displayed on SmartBridge\nAs the spending towards RPA grows so will UiPath’s revenue. As both the technical and market share leader it should see a very large percentage of the growing RPA spend. UiPath is among the best positioned to capitalize on the macroeconomic and corporate spending dynamics of the coming months.\nARR is Important and ARR will Get a Boost\nThe recent earnings call was very informative on UiPath’s ARR strategy. The company will be focusing on annual contracts instead of long-term ones. Usually, I wouldn’t be fond of this move as it means lower revenue visibility despite the pricing advantages of short-duration contracts. But in this case, I think that it’s the right thing to do. Annual contracts drive higher ROI for UiPath customers; according to management, customers make better use of UiPath when they get as much as they need instead of front-loading robots to take advantage of better prices through discounts. This is financially favorable for UiPath as well since long-term contracts tend to include price discounts; decreasing contract duration will result in fewer discounts and higher margins for UiPath.\nAnnual recurring revenue is critical for any service that offers subscriptions. This is due to the resiliency of recurring revenues; contracts are near-impossible and subscriptions are difficult to cancel in a downturn. Moreover, subscription software products have a learning curve and are difficult to churn from. Subscription revenues are highly visible and are highly valued by the market evident in the commonness of nosebleed valuations in the SaaS space. ARR will be key to watch for UiPath as self-described as their “most important metric”.\nThe switch to shorter-duration contracts will inflate ARR at the cost of revenue volatility.ASC 606 mandates that a percentage of revenue be recognized immediately and the rest amortized for long-term contracts. This artificially increases front-period revenues. UiPath focusing on annual ramping as opposed to long-term deals will reduce near-term revenues. However, ARR will increase as yearly amounts will increase due to lower discounts. I believe that higher ARR is what the market values and that this switch will benefit UiPath in market sentiment as well as operationally.\nTake Advantage of the Current Decline\nUiPath shares declined dramatically in September to deeply below IPO levels. The drawdown is even more surprising given the excellent results the company announced which was met with an immediate ~10% fall.\nSource: TradingView\nI see two main reasons for the falling-knife-like price action in the face of excellent operating performance: weak guidance and early investors leaving the train.\nUiPath announced results that beat across the board. UiPath delivered a top-line beat of $195.5 mn in revenue vs. the consensus estimate of $186.5 coupled with an ARR growth of 60% YoY vs. 55% consensus expectations. The company delivered operating profits vs. expectations of deep losses along with almost $30 mn narrower than expected FCF burn. So why didn’t the market like the results? My guess is high expectations. I think that the guidance was low looking further into the release and prior releases. UiPath beat its ARR guidance this quarter by a whopping $23.5 mn ($726.5 mn vs. at the mid-point of $702 mn - $704 mn guidance range). However, full-year guidance was only increased by $26 mn (at the mid-point, the range increased from $850 mn - $855 mn to $876 mn - $881 mn). What the market is reading here is that the demand environment seems to be slowing in the second half of the year and that the growth may decelerate from here out.\nI disagree with the market. I think that the management is sandbagging the guidance and leaving itself room to overdeliver. I highly doubt that the demand for its products will decrease in this environment but only accelerate and the set-up for alpha is great over the near term.\nA lot of early investors cashed out further pushing down the price. UiPath’s IPO lockup expired on the 9th of September. This can be the case with IPOs as many venture and pre-IPO investors are not able to sell their shares for a certain period.\nNow is a great time to buy with a short-term horizon. Below is a chart of UiPath’s forward revenue multiple and its share price (values on the right axis). Company multiples decreased proportionally to its share price, underlying growth remained resilient. A lot of the sellers are shaken out today and, I think, the downside from here will require concrete negative news while a return to IPO multiples will only need “some” good news. Risk-reward is skewed in the direction of the bull. With solid catalysts on the way, I think that UiPath will perform nicely over the coming months.\nSource: CapitalIQ\nCompetition is a Key Longer-Term Issue\nI’m less certain on future returns, however. The RPA space is attracting a lot of attention from giant enterprise vendors such as Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT),Salesforce(NYSE:CRM), and ServiceNow(NYSE:NOW), in addition to many other behemoths as well as pureplay competitors (competitive landscape is available in the charts above). Although this much attention from such important companies should be construed as a bullish sign in the viability of the product, competitive threats cannot be undermined. We see clearly that UiPath is far above the rest both in terms of capabilities and in market penetration, but these advantages may not be forever. The competitors mentioned have infinite financial resources and have a much, much wider sales network than that of UiPath. If these competitors decide to prioritize RPA, the outlook could be gloomy for UiPath.\nIncreasing competition seems to be the view of industry experts as well. The Gartner report expects pricing to decrease in the coming years. This is likely the result of more similar products on the market eroding pricing power.\nI see little risk over the near term. With UiPath as the leader, it should be best positioned for the upcoming high-demand environment. Many enterprises want single vendors which will be a benefit for UiPath today as if one vendor is chosen it will likely be the one with the best product offering. However, if UiPath’s technical leadership narrows, the exact opposite could be the case.\nThere is no reason to believe that UiPath will lose its leadership position currently. The company is investing heavily into R&D (32% of revenues over the past year) and the investment is bearing fruit with a lot of improvements/products on the horizon (document understanding, task mining, platform-agnostic capabilities, integration, and many more). However, the competition is a must-watch for UiPath investors.\nThis isn’t a dealbreaker as long as UiPath has the leading position, or at least until we see one or more of these enterprise software giants devoting serious resources towards the space. But the competition is still an issue as it creates execution risk; UiPath’s lunch is up for grabs if it can’t protect it.\nIndustry Switch to Cloud Bears Execution Risk\nThe future of the industry lies in the cloud; UiPath has a limited cloud offering.Only 2,850 out of 9,100+ UiPath customers have adopted the company’s cloud offering the Automation Cloud. With a lot of these enterprises likely using hybrid solutions, UiPath’s cloud computing capabilities lag behind its on-site solutions. As innovative as UiPath is it will likely manage the transformation, but again, this presents an additional execution risk.\nValuation is the Ultimate Long-Term Worry Despite Excellent KPIs\nUiPath has amazing KPIs. Its revenue and ARR growth are excellent and it's achieving this through minimal cash burn. The 144% net revenue retention rate is among the highest in the SaaS space and shows the value of the product. The space to land and expand is also growing with the number of customers rapidly increasing.\nHowever, these metrics, like the company’s leadership position, may not be permanent and may not be enough to support a lofty valuation. The entire SaaS space is extremely expensive in my opinion, and I would not consider being a long-term holder without absolute confidence. I don’t have absolute confidence in UiPath due to material execution risk, and to hold long-term I’d want to be compensated for that risk in valuation.\nUnfortunately, a lot of the benefits of UiPath are in the price in my opinion despite the recent drawdown. Below I’ve included my data table along with an output graph comparing two-year forward multiples with expected two-year revenue growth. The chart has a high r-squared meaning that the market values the relationship. UiPath is trading in line with peers implying that it’s pretty much fairly valued even when factoring in its very high growth expectations.\nSource: CapitalIQ\nSource: Author analysis\nI want to highlight that this comparison only justifies company valuation with respect to the SaaS space. If the SaaS space was valued like a normal industry, then I would most likely argue to buy UiPath and hold for the long-term as a quality company at a fair price. The absolute valuations are ridiculous in my opinion. The peer group average is 25x two-year forward revenues. Think about that for a minute. The Russell 3000 (represented here by iShares Russell 3000 ETF(NYSEARCA:IWV)) has a P/E ratio of 23x. This is trailing not forward. The SaaS group is trading at a higher ratio of not earnings but revenues. The space is very expensive and with rising interest rates, open to corrections. Of course, I see value and opportunity in certain SaaS plays, but I’m choosing to abstain here.\nThe issue was manifested in the recent quarter. The stock sold off despite the excellent results. Though I don’t expect to see this over the next few quarters due to the excellent demand environment, this could be a risk thereafter. Despite the recent price decrease buffering the downside over the near term, there are still very high expectations of UiPath leaving further room for disappointment.\nNeutral in the Long-Term Despite Bullish on Short/Medium\nUiPath is a unique software play where I am bullish over the near term, but prefer to not own over the longer. Usually, I would see drawdown risk in most of my preferred software plays over the short term, but would see the company growing into its valuation over time. Here, I see strong near-term alpha with the company delivering beyond expectations and seeing price gains towards where its been. I am much less confident in the opportunity after the RPA demand arising from corporate capital spending towards labor efficiency gets priced in which should happen over the next year.\nI want to add a P.S. here and entertain the bull thesis. I am not an engineer. I have no competitive advantage in understanding the capabilities and advantages of software services. Thus, I can’t have confidence in my analysis (reading industry reports) of technology. If you have such capabilities and believe that UiPath has a strong competitive moat that may be difficult to replicate even with intense resource spend, then by all means be bullish over any time horizon (and please let me know in the comments).\nRare case as would be the opposite usually. I’m not an engineer and don’t understand exact differentiators and capabilities. If there’s something UiPath does that can’t be replicated even with high resource spend, then bullish over the long-term as well (please let me know in the comments).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PATH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2995,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/841786866"}
精彩评论