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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":841495360,"tweetId":"841495360","gmtCreate":1635931545193,"gmtModify":1635931590029,"author":{"id":3586548382383976,"idStr":"3586548382383976","authorId":3586548382383976,"authorIdStr":"3586548382383976","name":"CHkoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba843b95b19563199f1f1b963e7f9b2b","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>like</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>like</p></body></html>","text":"like","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841495360","repostId":1118295005,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118295005","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635929648,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118295005?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-03 16:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed's Two-Day Meeting Is About to End. What to Expect.<blockquote>美联储为期两天的会议即将结束。期待什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118295005","media":"Barrons","summary":"The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting ends today. A formal announcement about a reduction in emergen","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting ends today. A formal announcement about a reduction in emergency bond buys is a foregone conclusion; what’s not so certain is how officials will handle still-rising inflation and rising expectations for more aggressive interest-rate policy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储为期两天的会议今天结束。正式宣布减少紧急债券购买已成定局；不太确定的是，官员们将如何应对仍在上升的通胀和对更激进的利率政策的不断上升的预期。</blockquote></p><p> First, on tapering: The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy-setting arm, is widely expected to say they will this month begin tapering the $120 billion in monthly Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases launched in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, expects the first reduction of $10 billion in Treasuries and $5 billion in mortgage-backed securities to go into effect Nov. 15. That would be just after the New York Fed publishes its next schedule of monthly purchases and thus the next opportunity to implement the change, she says.</p><p><blockquote>首先，关于缩减规模： 人们普遍预计美联储的政策制定机构联邦公开市场委员会将在本月开始缩减为应对冠状病毒大流行而推出的每月 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券购买规模。Jefferies 首席经济学家 Aneta Markowska 预计，首次减持 100 亿美元国债和 50 亿美元抵押贷款支持证券将于 11 月 15 日生效。她表示，这将是在纽约联储公布下一个每月购买时间表之后，因此是实施这一变革的下一个机会。</blockquote></p><p> The bigger question, Markowska says, is whether the FOMC will keep its language about inflation being “transitory.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reiterated since the economy began to reopen that rising prices are the result of reopening bursts and supply-chain kinks, meaning inflation would be fleeting. But the data are increasingly undermining that view. A 39-year high in the quarterly Employment Cost Index, released last Friday, is one particularly worrisome development. Surging wages come as productivity is slowing; central bankers have been counting on a productivity boom to outpace and thus offset the impact of rising wages. The idea is that productivity growth would act as a shock absorber to cap overall inflation, but that assumption may not be so reliable.</p><p><blockquote>马尔科夫斯卡说，更大的问题是，联邦公开市场委员会是否会坚持其关于通胀是 “暂时性 ”的说法。自经济开始重新开放以来，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔重申，价格上涨是重新开放爆发和供应链问题的结果，这意味着通胀将转瞬即逝。但是这些数据越来越破坏了这种观点。上周五公布的季度就业成本指数创39年来新高，这是一个特别令人担忧的事态发展。随着生产力放缓，工资飙升；央行行长们一直指望生产率的繁荣能够超越速度，从而抵消工资上涨的影响。这个想法是，生产率增长将作为一个减震器来限制整体通胀，但这个假设可能不那么可靠。</blockquote></p><p> Economists are split over whether the updated FOMC statement will call inflation “transitory.” Markwoska, for her part, says she is leaning toward a “yes,” because removing it would rattle investors, unhinge the front-end of the yield curve and cause a tightening of financial conditions. “Instead, we expect the Fed to finesse the accompanying language, by acknowledging that inflation pressures have been more persistent than expected,” she says.</p><p><blockquote>对于联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的最新声明是否会将通胀看涨期权为 “暂时性 ”，经济学家们存在分歧。马克沃斯卡则表示，她倾向于 “是”，因为取消它会让投资者感到不安，扰乱收益率曲线的前端，并导致金融状况收紧。“她说：”相反，我们预计美联储将通过承认通胀压力比预期的更加持久来完善伴随的措辞。</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not the policy statement reflects a change in officials’ view of inflation, Powell is sure to field questions on the topic once his press conference starts at 2:30 p.m. ET. Markowska says he is likely to push back on early rate increase expectations, odds of which are rising given the incoming inflation data and rising consumer inflation expectations. Powell has directed investors’ attention toward the latter, given that inflation expectations are key to whether or not rising prices wind up sticking around. Expectations for ongoing price increases can affect consumer behavior, bringing demand forward and reinforcing inflation.</p><p><blockquote>无论政策声明是否反映了官员们对通胀看法的变化，鲍威尔一定会在美国东部时间下午 2:30 的新闻发布会开始后回答有关这一话题的问题。马尔科夫斯卡表示，他可能会推迟早期加息预期，鉴于即将公布的通胀数据和消费者通胀预期上升，加息的可能性正在上升。鲍威尔将投资者的注意力转向了后者，因为通胀预期是决定物价上涨是否会持续的关键。对持续价格上涨的预期会影响消费者行为，推高需求并加剧通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> At this point, the Fed is probably not comfortable with the two interest-rate increases currently priced in for next year, says Markowska. (The Fed has been emphasizing that it doesn’t plan to lift off immediately after tapering concludes, instead waiting until 2023 before raising rates). “But Powell will have to walk a very fine line,” Markowska says, “since pushing back too hard could unhinge inflation expectations but not pushing back at all could unsettle the front-end of the yield curve,” which is more rate-sensitive.</p><p><blockquote>马尔科夫斯卡表示，在这一点上，美联储可能对目前定价的明年两次加息感到不舒服。(美联储一直强调，它不打算在缩减规模结束后立即放松，而是等到2023年再加息）。“但鲍威尔将不得不走一条非常微妙的路线，”马尔科夫斯卡说，“因为过度推回可能会扰乱通胀预期，但完全不推回可能会扰乱收益率曲线的前端”，而收益率曲线对利率更加敏感。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed's Two-Day Meeting Is About to End. What to Expect.<blockquote>美联储为期两天的会议即将结束。期待什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed's Two-Day Meeting Is About to End. What to Expect.<blockquote>美联储为期两天的会议即将结束。期待什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-03 16:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting ends today. A formal announcement about a reduction in emergency bond buys is a foregone conclusion; what’s not so certain is how officials will handle still-rising inflation and rising expectations for more aggressive interest-rate policy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储为期两天的会议今天结束。正式宣布减少紧急债券购买已成定局；不太确定的是，官员们将如何应对仍在上升的通胀和对更激进的利率政策的不断上升的预期。</blockquote></p><p> First, on tapering: The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy-setting arm, is widely expected to say they will this month begin tapering the $120 billion in monthly Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases launched in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, expects the first reduction of $10 billion in Treasuries and $5 billion in mortgage-backed securities to go into effect Nov. 15. That would be just after the New York Fed publishes its next schedule of monthly purchases and thus the next opportunity to implement the change, she says.</p><p><blockquote>首先，关于缩减规模： 人们普遍预计美联储的政策制定机构联邦公开市场委员会将在本月开始缩减为应对冠状病毒大流行而推出的每月 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券购买规模。Jefferies 首席经济学家 Aneta Markowska 预计，首次减持 100 亿美元国债和 50 亿美元抵押贷款支持证券将于 11 月 15 日生效。她表示，这将是在纽约联储公布下一个每月购买时间表之后，因此是实施这一变革的下一个机会。</blockquote></p><p> The bigger question, Markowska says, is whether the FOMC will keep its language about inflation being “transitory.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reiterated since the economy began to reopen that rising prices are the result of reopening bursts and supply-chain kinks, meaning inflation would be fleeting. But the data are increasingly undermining that view. A 39-year high in the quarterly Employment Cost Index, released last Friday, is one particularly worrisome development. Surging wages come as productivity is slowing; central bankers have been counting on a productivity boom to outpace and thus offset the impact of rising wages. The idea is that productivity growth would act as a shock absorber to cap overall inflation, but that assumption may not be so reliable.</p><p><blockquote>马尔科夫斯卡说，更大的问题是，联邦公开市场委员会是否会坚持其关于通胀是 “暂时性 ”的说法。自经济开始重新开放以来，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔重申，价格上涨是重新开放爆发和供应链问题的结果，这意味着通胀将转瞬即逝。但是这些数据越来越破坏了这种观点。上周五公布的季度就业成本指数创39年来新高，这是一个特别令人担忧的事态发展。随着生产力放缓，工资飙升；央行行长们一直指望生产率的繁荣能够超越速度，从而抵消工资上涨的影响。这个想法是，生产率增长将作为一个减震器来限制整体通胀，但这个假设可能不那么可靠。</blockquote></p><p> Economists are split over whether the updated FOMC statement will call inflation “transitory.” Markwoska, for her part, says she is leaning toward a “yes,” because removing it would rattle investors, unhinge the front-end of the yield curve and cause a tightening of financial conditions. “Instead, we expect the Fed to finesse the accompanying language, by acknowledging that inflation pressures have been more persistent than expected,” she says.</p><p><blockquote>对于联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的最新声明是否会将通胀看涨期权为 “暂时性 ”，经济学家们存在分歧。马克沃斯卡则表示，她倾向于 “是”，因为取消它会让投资者感到不安，扰乱收益率曲线的前端，并导致金融状况收紧。“她说：”相反，我们预计美联储将通过承认通胀压力比预期的更加持久来完善伴随的措辞。</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not the policy statement reflects a change in officials’ view of inflation, Powell is sure to field questions on the topic once his press conference starts at 2:30 p.m. ET. Markowska says he is likely to push back on early rate increase expectations, odds of which are rising given the incoming inflation data and rising consumer inflation expectations. Powell has directed investors’ attention toward the latter, given that inflation expectations are key to whether or not rising prices wind up sticking around. Expectations for ongoing price increases can affect consumer behavior, bringing demand forward and reinforcing inflation.</p><p><blockquote>无论政策声明是否反映了官员们对通胀看法的变化，鲍威尔一定会在美国东部时间下午 2:30 的新闻发布会开始后回答有关这一话题的问题。马尔科夫斯卡表示，他可能会推迟早期加息预期，鉴于即将公布的通胀数据和消费者通胀预期上升，加息的可能性正在上升。鲍威尔将投资者的注意力转向了后者，因为通胀预期是决定物价上涨是否会持续的关键。对持续价格上涨的预期会影响消费者行为，推高需求并加剧通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> At this point, the Fed is probably not comfortable with the two interest-rate increases currently priced in for next year, says Markowska. (The Fed has been emphasizing that it doesn’t plan to lift off immediately after tapering concludes, instead waiting until 2023 before raising rates). “But Powell will have to walk a very fine line,” Markowska says, “since pushing back too hard could unhinge inflation expectations but not pushing back at all could unsettle the front-end of the yield curve,” which is more rate-sensitive.</p><p><blockquote>马尔科夫斯卡表示，在这一点上，美联储可能对目前定价的明年两次加息感到不舒服。(美联储一直强调，它不打算在缩减规模结束后立即放松，而是等到2023年再加息）。“但鲍威尔将不得不走一条非常微妙的路线，”马尔科夫斯卡说，“因为过度推回可能会扰乱通胀预期，但完全不推回可能会扰乱收益率曲线的前端”，而收益率曲线对利率更加敏感。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/is-inflation-here-to-stay-fed-today-51635925833?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/is-inflation-here-to-stay-fed-today-51635925833?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118295005","content_text":"The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting ends today. A formal announcement about a reduction in emergency bond buys is a foregone conclusion; what’s not so certain is how officials will handle still-rising inflation and rising expectations for more aggressive interest-rate policy.\nFirst, on tapering: The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy-setting arm, is widely expected to say they will this month begin tapering the $120 billion in monthly Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases launched in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, expects the first reduction of $10 billion in Treasuries and $5 billion in mortgage-backed securities to go into effect Nov. 15. That would be just after the New York Fed publishes its next schedule of monthly purchases and thus the next opportunity to implement the change, she says.\nThe bigger question, Markowska says, is whether the FOMC will keep its language about inflation being “transitory.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reiterated since the economy began to reopen that rising prices are the result of reopening bursts and supply-chain kinks, meaning inflation would be fleeting. But the data are increasingly undermining that view. A 39-year high in the quarterly Employment Cost Index, released last Friday, is one particularly worrisome development. Surging wages come as productivity is slowing; central bankers have been counting on a productivity boom to outpace and thus offset the impact of rising wages. The idea is that productivity growth would act as a shock absorber to cap overall inflation, but that assumption may not be so reliable.\nEconomists are split over whether the updated FOMC statement will call inflation “transitory.” Markwoska, for her part, says she is leaning toward a “yes,” because removing it would rattle investors, unhinge the front-end of the yield curve and cause a tightening of financial conditions. “Instead, we expect the Fed to finesse the accompanying language, by acknowledging that inflation pressures have been more persistent than expected,” she says.\nWhether or not the policy statement reflects a change in officials’ view of inflation, Powell is sure to field questions on the topic once his press conference starts at 2:30 p.m. ET. Markowska says he is likely to push back on early rate increase expectations, odds of which are rising given the incoming inflation data and rising consumer inflation expectations. Powell has directed investors’ attention toward the latter, given that inflation expectations are key to whether or not rising prices wind up sticking around. Expectations for ongoing price increases can affect consumer behavior, bringing demand forward and reinforcing inflation.\nAt this point, the Fed is probably not comfortable with the two interest-rate increases currently priced in for next year, says Markowska. (The Fed has been emphasizing that it doesn’t plan to lift off immediately after tapering concludes, instead waiting until 2023 before raising rates). “But Powell will have to walk a very fine line,” Markowska says, “since pushing back too hard could unhinge inflation expectations but not pushing back at all could unsettle the front-end of the yield curve,” which is more rate-sensitive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":969,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/841495360"}