Tygress
2021-11-03
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NIO: Hop On For 100% Upside Potential<blockquote>蔚来：抓住100%的上涨潜力</blockquote>
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(NIO) is one of the fastest Chinese EV companies, with ambitious plans to expand globally. However, recent production figures for October have been unimpressive, sending the stock back under $40/share. But this does not change the long-term prospects of the company. I believe NIO’s shares could easily double in the next 12 months based on my valuation.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国发展最快的电动汽车公司之一，有着雄心勃勃的全球扩张计划。然而，最近10月份的产量数据并不令人印象深刻，使该股回到40美元/股以下。但这并不能改变公司的长期前景。根据我的估值，我相信蔚来的股价在未来12个月内很容易翻倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Short-term headwinds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短期不利因素</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. just reported its deliveries for October,leaving investors anything but pleased. Overall, the company delivered 3,6677 vehicles, which was down 27.5% YoY. Though these headline numbers are disappointing, they are not the result of a slump in demand, as much as what I consider to be temporary headwinds. NIO cited “restructuring and manufacturing of upgrade lines” as the main reasons behind the decrease in deliveries. This does seem like a compelling argument, especially when we consider that new orders reached an all-time high in October.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来刚刚公布了10月份的交付量，这让投资者一点也不高兴。总体而言，该公司交付了3,667 7辆汽车，同比下降27.5%。尽管这些总体数字令人失望，但它们并不是需求下滑的结果，而是我认为暂时的不利因素。蔚来将“重组和升级生产线的制造”列为交付量下降的主要原因。这看起来确实是一个令人信服的论点，尤其是当我们考虑到10月份新订单达到历史新高时。</blockquote></p><p> So the real question would be, how much of an impact will these manufacturing upgrades have? Will we see them affect next month's numbers? And is there more that the company might not be telling us?</p><p><blockquote>因此，真正的问题是，这些制造业升级会产生多大的影响？我们会看到它们影响下个月的数字吗？还有什么公司可能没有告诉我们的吗？</blockquote></p><p> It is important to point out that, whatever happened to NIO in the last month, seems to be an isolated event. Rivals like Li Auto (LI) and XPeng Inc. (XPEV) delivered month-on-month increases.Though chip shortages and'' supply constraints” have surely had an impact on all these companies, NIO’s rivals seem to have fared better. Having said that, I do believe NIO will overcome these short-term headwinds, and still holds the most promise looking forward.</p><p><blockquote>必须指出的是，无论蔚来上个月发生了什么，似乎都是一个孤立的事件。理想汽车（LI）和小鹏汽车（XPEV）等竞争对手环比增长。尽管芯片短缺和“供应限制”肯定对所有这些公司产生了影响，但蔚来的竞争对手似乎表现得更好。话虽如此，我确实相信蔚来将克服这些短期阻力，并且仍然充满希望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long-term tailwinds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>长期顺风</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite the poor monthly results, the long-term prospects of NIO remain attractive, nothing has changed there. The issue of manufacturing has been widely discussed since NIO doesn’t have its production facilities yet. However, back in May,NIO renewed its agreement with Jianghuai Automobile Group Co (JAC). Through this agreement, NIO expects to double its production, up to 240,000 units per year from now to 2024.</p><p><blockquote>尽管月度业绩不佳，但蔚来的长期前景仍然有吸引力，那里没有任何变化。由于蔚来还没有生产设施，制造问题一直被广泛讨论。然而，早在5月份，蔚来就与江淮汽车集团有限公司（JAC）续签了协议。通过这项协议，蔚来预计从现在到2024年将其产量翻一番，达到每年24万辆。</blockquote></p><p> More importantly though, NIO has even more ambitious plans in the future, since the company will be spearheading the construction of the Neo Park, an industrial cluster for EVs based in the city of Hefei.</p><p><blockquote>但更重要的是，蔚来未来还有更雄心勃勃的计划，因为该公司将牵头建设位于合肥市的电动汽车产业集群Neo Park。</blockquote></p><p> Neo Park in the capital of Anhui province will have production capacities for one million electric cars and 100 GWh of batteries per year on an area of 11.3 square kilometres, as well as research and development facilities, according to Chinese media reports on the start of construction. More than 50,000 jobs are planned, including more than 10,000 in research and development. The initial investment is 50 billion yuan (about 6.4 billion euros). Source:Electrive.com</p><p><blockquote>据中国媒体关于开工建设的报道，位于安徽省省会的Neo园区占地11.3平方公里，将拥有每年100万辆电动汽车和100 GWh电池的生产能力，以及研发设施。计划创造5万多个就业岗位，其中研发岗位1万多个。首期投资500亿元人民币（约合64亿欧元）。资料来源：Electrive.com</blockquote></p><p> For these reasons, I am not concerned when it comes to NIO’s long-term production capabilities.</p><p><blockquote>出于这些原因，我并不担心蔚来的长期生产能力。</blockquote></p><p> The other significant tailwind for NIO is its impending international expansion. NIO is already doing very well in China, as new orders are still holding strong even in October. It is true though that NIO faces intense competition in this area, few of the up and coming Chinese EV companies have any current plans for international expansion, which NIO does.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的另一个重要推动力是其即将到来的国际扩张。蔚来在中国的表现已经非常好，即使在10月份，新订单仍然强劲。诚然，尽管蔚来在这一领域面临着激烈的竞争，但很少有新兴的中国电动汽车公司像蔚来那样有任何国际扩张计划。</blockquote></p><p> NIO launched its ES8 in Norway one month ago, on the 1st of October, and this might also be partly behind the recent slowdown in production. NIO has shifted its focus towards this region, as it seeks to get a foot into Europe’s largest EV market. NIO has also brought its “lifestyle brand” to Norway, opening up a NIO House in Oslo, and partnering up with two local artists, Anette Moi and Sandra Blikas, to launch its NIO Norway collection. The company plans to expand from Oslo and have 20 NIO Power stations in Oslo by the end of 2022. Though these are ambitious plans, it's important to note that revenues and sales from Norway are not expected to be sizable during this first phase.</p><p><blockquote>一个月前，即10月1日，蔚来在挪威推出了ES8，这可能也是最近挪威产量放缓的部分原因。蔚来已将重点转向该地区，寻求进军欧洲最大的电动汽车市场。蔚来还将其“生活方式品牌”带到了挪威，在奥斯陆开设了一家蔚来之家，并与两位当地艺术家Anette Moi和Sandra Blikas合作推出了其蔚来挪威系列。该公司计划从奥斯陆开始扩张，到2022年底在奥斯陆拥有20座蔚来发电站。尽管这些都是雄心勃勃的计划，但值得注意的是，在第一阶段，来自挪威的收入和销售额预计不会很大。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding the delivery in Norway, we believe for this year, the contribution is not going to be that significant because our priority is to make sure we can ensure high user satisfaction in the Norway market by building our brand, expanding our sales and service network. Source:William Bin Li, CEO, NIO Q2 2021 earnings conference call</p><p><blockquote>关于在挪威的交付，我们相信今年的贡献不会那么大，因为我们的首要任务是通过建立我们的品牌、扩大我们的销售和服务网络来确保挪威市场的高用户满意度。资料来源：蔚来首席执行官William Bin Li 2021年第二季度收益电话会议</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately though, NIO is laying the groundwork for prolonged long-term success, growing both its brand and production capacity.</p><p><blockquote>但最终，蔚来正在为长期成功奠定基础，发展其品牌和产能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO is a fast-growing company in the EV sector, and while high revenue growth is expected, profitability is still far away. With that said, I believe the most adequate way to value such a company is by utilising a Price/Sales ratio. Using current analyst estimates from Seeking Alpha, and assuming a future rate of dilution and multiple, we can arrive at a target price for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是电动汽车领域一家快速增长的公司，虽然预计收入将实现高增长，但盈利仍遥遥无期。也就是说，我认为对这样一家公司进行估值最合适的方法是利用市销率。使用Seeking Alpha当前分析师的估计，并假设未来的稀释率和倍数，我们可以得出蔚来的目标价格。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a669b2529a958cabb360b2325d1781a2\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"612\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let’s take the year 2023, which has estimates by 20 analysts, giving us a reasonable margin of safety. Estimates for 2023 range from $10,66B to $17,61B. I’ll use a conservative middle range number of $14B. December 2022 is about 2 years away, so we should also take into account some share dilution. Let’s assume a generous 6% rate of dilution, putting NIO’s outstanding shares close to 2B. Assuming a P/S ratio of 12, slightly below today’s, we would achieve a target price of $84/share. This is over twice today’s price, a 100% possible gain in slightly over two years.</p><p><blockquote>以2023年为例，20位分析师对2023年进行了预测，为我们提供了合理的安全边际。2023年的预测范围为$10, 66B至$17, 61B。我将使用保守的中值140亿美元。距离2022年12月还有2年左右的时间，所以我们也应该考虑到一些股份稀释。让我们假设6%的稀释率，使蔚来的流通股接近2B。假设市盈率为12，略低于今天，我们将实现84美元/股的目标价。这是今天价格的两倍多，在两年多一点的时间里可能会上涨100%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Although I am bullish on NIO and the EV sector, there are important risk factors that we must take into account.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我看好蔚来和电动汽车行业，但我们必须考虑一些重要的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> For starters, there is the persistent threat of chip shortages. CNBC recently reported that the shortage could last until 2023, which would certainly put a dampener on worldwide production.</p><p><blockquote>首先，芯片短缺的威胁持续存在。CNBC最近报道称，短缺可能会持续到2023年，这肯定会抑制全球生产。</blockquote></p><p> Another important but less discussed issue, though, is the fact that large quantities of lithium are required to produce the batteries that power EVs. In the last year, lithium prices have more than quadrupled, and this may become an issue moving forward. Higher lithium prices will either limit production or hurt margins, neither of which is a good outcome for EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>然而，另一个重要但较少讨论的问题是，生产电动汽车动力电池需要大量锂。去年，锂价上涨了四倍多，这可能会成为未来的一个问题。锂价上涨要么会限制产量，要么会损害利润率，这对电动汽车制造商来说都不是一个好结果。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, NIO, together with other Chinese EV companies, may faces the threat of regulation. </p><p><blockquote>最后，蔚来和其他中国电动汽车公司可能面临监管的威胁。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, NIO is at these prices one of my highest conviction plays. $40/share is a great place to accumulate given the increased interest by both investors and consumers in the EV space. NIO is my favourite company both home and abroad, given its growth plans and a strong emphasis on building brand value. The current headwinds will be temporary, and growth will resume soon.</p><p><blockquote>总之，在这些价格上，《蔚来》是我最坚信的戏剧之一。鉴于投资者和消费者对电动汽车领域的兴趣不断增加，40美元/股是一个很好的积累空间。鉴于其增长计划和对建立品牌价值的高度重视，蔚来是我在国内外最喜欢的公司。目前的不利因素将是暂时的，增长将很快恢复。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: Hop On For 100% Upside Potential<blockquote>蔚来：抓住100%的上涨潜力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: Hop On For 100% Upside Potential<blockquote>蔚来：抓住100%的上涨潜力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-03 17:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>NIO released disappointing October deliveries, despite strong demand.</li> <li>Though there are short-term headwinds, NIO's long-term growth prospects continue to be good.</li> <li>I estimate the stock could double in price in the next 2 years.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0953fe30e0f3f44b551e2b2196bc0a4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sezeryadigar/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管需求强劲，蔚来公布的10月份交付量令人失望。</li><li>尽管存在短期阻力，但蔚来的长期增长前景仍然良好。</li><li>我估计该股的价格在未来两年内可能会翻倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Sezeryadigar/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Thesis Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文摘要</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NIO) is one of the fastest Chinese EV companies, with ambitious plans to expand globally. However, recent production figures for October have been unimpressive, sending the stock back under $40/share. But this does not change the long-term prospects of the company. I believe NIO’s shares could easily double in the next 12 months based on my valuation.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国发展最快的电动汽车公司之一，有着雄心勃勃的全球扩张计划。然而，最近10月份的产量数据并不令人印象深刻，使该股回到40美元/股以下。但这并不能改变公司的长期前景。根据我的估值，我相信蔚来的股价在未来12个月内很容易翻倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Short-term headwinds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短期不利因素</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. just reported its deliveries for October,leaving investors anything but pleased. Overall, the company delivered 3,6677 vehicles, which was down 27.5% YoY. Though these headline numbers are disappointing, they are not the result of a slump in demand, as much as what I consider to be temporary headwinds. NIO cited “restructuring and manufacturing of upgrade lines” as the main reasons behind the decrease in deliveries. This does seem like a compelling argument, especially when we consider that new orders reached an all-time high in October.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来刚刚公布了10月份的交付量，这让投资者一点也不高兴。总体而言，该公司交付了3,667 7辆汽车，同比下降27.5%。尽管这些总体数字令人失望，但它们并不是需求下滑的结果，而是我认为暂时的不利因素。蔚来将“重组和升级生产线的制造”列为交付量下降的主要原因。这看起来确实是一个令人信服的论点，尤其是当我们考虑到10月份新订单达到历史新高时。</blockquote></p><p> So the real question would be, how much of an impact will these manufacturing upgrades have? Will we see them affect next month's numbers? And is there more that the company might not be telling us?</p><p><blockquote>因此，真正的问题是，这些制造业升级会产生多大的影响？我们会看到它们影响下个月的数字吗？还有什么公司可能没有告诉我们的吗？</blockquote></p><p> It is important to point out that, whatever happened to NIO in the last month, seems to be an isolated event. Rivals like Li Auto (LI) and XPeng Inc. (XPEV) delivered month-on-month increases.Though chip shortages and'' supply constraints” have surely had an impact on all these companies, NIO’s rivals seem to have fared better. Having said that, I do believe NIO will overcome these short-term headwinds, and still holds the most promise looking forward.</p><p><blockquote>必须指出的是，无论蔚来上个月发生了什么，似乎都是一个孤立的事件。理想汽车（LI）和小鹏汽车（XPEV）等竞争对手环比增长。尽管芯片短缺和“供应限制”肯定对所有这些公司产生了影响，但蔚来的竞争对手似乎表现得更好。话虽如此，我确实相信蔚来将克服这些短期阻力，并且仍然充满希望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long-term tailwinds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>长期顺风</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite the poor monthly results, the long-term prospects of NIO remain attractive, nothing has changed there. The issue of manufacturing has been widely discussed since NIO doesn’t have its production facilities yet. However, back in May,NIO renewed its agreement with Jianghuai Automobile Group Co (JAC). Through this agreement, NIO expects to double its production, up to 240,000 units per year from now to 2024.</p><p><blockquote>尽管月度业绩不佳，但蔚来的长期前景仍然有吸引力，那里没有任何变化。由于蔚来还没有生产设施，制造问题一直被广泛讨论。然而，早在5月份，蔚来就与江淮汽车集团有限公司（JAC）续签了协议。通过这项协议，蔚来预计从现在到2024年将其产量翻一番，达到每年24万辆。</blockquote></p><p> More importantly though, NIO has even more ambitious plans in the future, since the company will be spearheading the construction of the Neo Park, an industrial cluster for EVs based in the city of Hefei.</p><p><blockquote>但更重要的是，蔚来未来还有更雄心勃勃的计划，因为该公司将牵头建设位于合肥市的电动汽车产业集群Neo Park。</blockquote></p><p> Neo Park in the capital of Anhui province will have production capacities for one million electric cars and 100 GWh of batteries per year on an area of 11.3 square kilometres, as well as research and development facilities, according to Chinese media reports on the start of construction. More than 50,000 jobs are planned, including more than 10,000 in research and development. The initial investment is 50 billion yuan (about 6.4 billion euros). Source:Electrive.com</p><p><blockquote>据中国媒体关于开工建设的报道，位于安徽省省会的Neo园区占地11.3平方公里，将拥有每年100万辆电动汽车和100 GWh电池的生产能力，以及研发设施。计划创造5万多个就业岗位，其中研发岗位1万多个。首期投资500亿元人民币（约合64亿欧元）。资料来源：Electrive.com</blockquote></p><p> For these reasons, I am not concerned when it comes to NIO’s long-term production capabilities.</p><p><blockquote>出于这些原因，我并不担心蔚来的长期生产能力。</blockquote></p><p> The other significant tailwind for NIO is its impending international expansion. NIO is already doing very well in China, as new orders are still holding strong even in October. It is true though that NIO faces intense competition in this area, few of the up and coming Chinese EV companies have any current plans for international expansion, which NIO does.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的另一个重要推动力是其即将到来的国际扩张。蔚来在中国的表现已经非常好，即使在10月份，新订单仍然强劲。诚然，尽管蔚来在这一领域面临着激烈的竞争，但很少有新兴的中国电动汽车公司像蔚来那样有任何国际扩张计划。</blockquote></p><p> NIO launched its ES8 in Norway one month ago, on the 1st of October, and this might also be partly behind the recent slowdown in production. NIO has shifted its focus towards this region, as it seeks to get a foot into Europe’s largest EV market. NIO has also brought its “lifestyle brand” to Norway, opening up a NIO House in Oslo, and partnering up with two local artists, Anette Moi and Sandra Blikas, to launch its NIO Norway collection. The company plans to expand from Oslo and have 20 NIO Power stations in Oslo by the end of 2022. Though these are ambitious plans, it's important to note that revenues and sales from Norway are not expected to be sizable during this first phase.</p><p><blockquote>一个月前，即10月1日，蔚来在挪威推出了ES8，这可能也是最近挪威产量放缓的部分原因。蔚来已将重点转向该地区，寻求进军欧洲最大的电动汽车市场。蔚来还将其“生活方式品牌”带到了挪威，在奥斯陆开设了一家蔚来之家，并与两位当地艺术家Anette Moi和Sandra Blikas合作推出了其蔚来挪威系列。该公司计划从奥斯陆开始扩张，到2022年底在奥斯陆拥有20座蔚来发电站。尽管这些都是雄心勃勃的计划，但值得注意的是，在第一阶段，来自挪威的收入和销售额预计不会很大。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding the delivery in Norway, we believe for this year, the contribution is not going to be that significant because our priority is to make sure we can ensure high user satisfaction in the Norway market by building our brand, expanding our sales and service network. Source:William Bin Li, CEO, NIO Q2 2021 earnings conference call</p><p><blockquote>关于在挪威的交付，我们相信今年的贡献不会那么大，因为我们的首要任务是通过建立我们的品牌、扩大我们的销售和服务网络来确保挪威市场的高用户满意度。资料来源：蔚来首席执行官William Bin Li 2021年第二季度收益电话会议</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately though, NIO is laying the groundwork for prolonged long-term success, growing both its brand and production capacity.</p><p><blockquote>但最终，蔚来正在为长期成功奠定基础，发展其品牌和产能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO is a fast-growing company in the EV sector, and while high revenue growth is expected, profitability is still far away. With that said, I believe the most adequate way to value such a company is by utilising a Price/Sales ratio. Using current analyst estimates from Seeking Alpha, and assuming a future rate of dilution and multiple, we can arrive at a target price for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是电动汽车领域一家快速增长的公司，虽然预计收入将实现高增长，但盈利仍遥遥无期。也就是说，我认为对这样一家公司进行估值最合适的方法是利用市销率。使用Seeking Alpha当前分析师的估计，并假设未来的稀释率和倍数，我们可以得出蔚来的目标价格。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a669b2529a958cabb360b2325d1781a2\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"612\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let’s take the year 2023, which has estimates by 20 analysts, giving us a reasonable margin of safety. Estimates for 2023 range from $10,66B to $17,61B. I’ll use a conservative middle range number of $14B. December 2022 is about 2 years away, so we should also take into account some share dilution. Let’s assume a generous 6% rate of dilution, putting NIO’s outstanding shares close to 2B. Assuming a P/S ratio of 12, slightly below today’s, we would achieve a target price of $84/share. This is over twice today’s price, a 100% possible gain in slightly over two years.</p><p><blockquote>以2023年为例，20位分析师对2023年进行了预测，为我们提供了合理的安全边际。2023年的预测范围为$10, 66B至$17, 61B。我将使用保守的中值140亿美元。距离2022年12月还有2年左右的时间，所以我们也应该考虑到一些股份稀释。让我们假设6%的稀释率，使蔚来的流通股接近2B。假设市盈率为12，略低于今天，我们将实现84美元/股的目标价。这是今天价格的两倍多，在两年多一点的时间里可能会上涨100%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Although I am bullish on NIO and the EV sector, there are important risk factors that we must take into account.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我看好蔚来和电动汽车行业，但我们必须考虑一些重要的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> For starters, there is the persistent threat of chip shortages. CNBC recently reported that the shortage could last until 2023, which would certainly put a dampener on worldwide production.</p><p><blockquote>首先，芯片短缺的威胁持续存在。CNBC最近报道称，短缺可能会持续到2023年，这肯定会抑制全球生产。</blockquote></p><p> Another important but less discussed issue, though, is the fact that large quantities of lithium are required to produce the batteries that power EVs. In the last year, lithium prices have more than quadrupled, and this may become an issue moving forward. Higher lithium prices will either limit production or hurt margins, neither of which is a good outcome for EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>然而，另一个重要但较少讨论的问题是，生产电动汽车动力电池需要大量锂。去年，锂价上涨了四倍多，这可能会成为未来的一个问题。锂价上涨要么会限制产量，要么会损害利润率，这对电动汽车制造商来说都不是一个好结果。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, NIO, together with other Chinese EV companies, may faces the threat of regulation. </p><p><blockquote>最后，蔚来和其他中国电动汽车公司可能面临监管的威胁。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, NIO is at these prices one of my highest conviction plays. $40/share is a great place to accumulate given the increased interest by both investors and consumers in the EV space. NIO is my favourite company both home and abroad, given its growth plans and a strong emphasis on building brand value. The current headwinds will be temporary, and growth will resume soon.</p><p><blockquote>总之，在这些价格上，《蔚来》是我最坚信的戏剧之一。鉴于投资者和消费者对电动汽车领域的兴趣不断增加，40美元/股是一个很好的积累空间。鉴于其增长计划和对建立品牌价值的高度重视，蔚来是我在国内外最喜欢的公司。目前的不利因素将是暂时的，增长将很快恢复。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464339-nio-hop-on-for-100-percent-upside-potential\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464339-nio-hop-on-for-100-percent-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194982054","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO released disappointing October deliveries, despite strong demand.\nThough there are short-term headwinds, NIO's long-term growth prospects continue to be good.\nI estimate the stock could double in price in the next 2 years.\n\nSezeryadigar/E+ via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nNIO Inc. (NIO) is one of the fastest Chinese EV companies, with ambitious plans to expand globally. However, recent production figures for October have been unimpressive, sending the stock back under $40/share. But this does not change the long-term prospects of the company. I believe NIO’s shares could easily double in the next 12 months based on my valuation.\nShort-term headwinds\nNIO Inc. just reported its deliveries for October,leaving investors anything but pleased. Overall, the company delivered 3,6677 vehicles, which was down 27.5% YoY. Though these headline numbers are disappointing, they are not the result of a slump in demand, as much as what I consider to be temporary headwinds. NIO cited “restructuring and manufacturing of upgrade lines” as the main reasons behind the decrease in deliveries. This does seem like a compelling argument, especially when we consider that new orders reached an all-time high in October.\nSo the real question would be, how much of an impact will these manufacturing upgrades have? Will we see them affect next month's numbers? And is there more that the company might not be telling us?\nIt is important to point out that, whatever happened to NIO in the last month, seems to be an isolated event. Rivals like Li Auto (LI) and XPeng Inc. (XPEV) delivered month-on-month increases.Though chip shortages and'' supply constraints” have surely had an impact on all these companies, NIO’s rivals seem to have fared better. Having said that, I do believe NIO will overcome these short-term headwinds, and still holds the most promise looking forward.\nLong-term tailwinds\nDespite the poor monthly results, the long-term prospects of NIO remain attractive, nothing has changed there. The issue of manufacturing has been widely discussed since NIO doesn’t have its production facilities yet. However, back in May,NIO renewed its agreement with Jianghuai Automobile Group Co (JAC). Through this agreement, NIO expects to double its production, up to 240,000 units per year from now to 2024.\nMore importantly though, NIO has even more ambitious plans in the future, since the company will be spearheading the construction of the Neo Park, an industrial cluster for EVs based in the city of Hefei.\n\n Neo Park in the capital of Anhui province will have production capacities for one million electric cars and 100 GWh of batteries per year on an area of 11.3 square kilometres, as well as research and development facilities, according to Chinese media reports on the start of construction. More than 50,000 jobs are planned, including more than 10,000 in research and development. The initial investment is 50 billion yuan (about 6.4 billion euros).\n\nSource:Electrive.com\nFor these reasons, I am not concerned when it comes to NIO’s long-term production capabilities.\nThe other significant tailwind for NIO is its impending international expansion. NIO is already doing very well in China, as new orders are still holding strong even in October. It is true though that NIO faces intense competition in this area, few of the up and coming Chinese EV companies have any current plans for international expansion, which NIO does.\nNIO launched its ES8 in Norway one month ago, on the 1st of October, and this might also be partly behind the recent slowdown in production. NIO has shifted its focus towards this region, as it seeks to get a foot into Europe’s largest EV market. NIO has also brought its “lifestyle brand” to Norway, opening up a NIO House in Oslo, and partnering up with two local artists, Anette Moi and Sandra Blikas, to launch its NIO Norway collection. The company plans to expand from Oslo and have 20 NIO Power stations in Oslo by the end of 2022. Though these are ambitious plans, it's important to note that revenues and sales from Norway are not expected to be sizable during this first phase.\n\n Regarding the delivery in Norway, we believe for this year, the contribution is not going to be that significant because our priority is to make sure we can ensure high user satisfaction in the Norway market by building our brand, expanding our sales and service network.\n\nSource:William Bin Li, CEO, NIO Q2 2021 earnings conference call\nUltimately though, NIO is laying the groundwork for prolonged long-term success, growing both its brand and production capacity.\nValuation\nNIO is a fast-growing company in the EV sector, and while high revenue growth is expected, profitability is still far away. With that said, I believe the most adequate way to value such a company is by utilising a Price/Sales ratio. Using current analyst estimates from Seeking Alpha, and assuming a future rate of dilution and multiple, we can arrive at a target price for NIO.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLet’s take the year 2023, which has estimates by 20 analysts, giving us a reasonable margin of safety. Estimates for 2023 range from $10,66B to $17,61B. I’ll use a conservative middle range number of $14B. December 2022 is about 2 years away, so we should also take into account some share dilution. Let’s assume a generous 6% rate of dilution, putting NIO’s outstanding shares close to 2B. Assuming a P/S ratio of 12, slightly below today’s, we would achieve a target price of $84/share. This is over twice today’s price, a 100% possible gain in slightly over two years.\nRisks\nAlthough I am bullish on NIO and the EV sector, there are important risk factors that we must take into account.\nFor starters, there is the persistent threat of chip shortages. CNBC recently reported that the shortage could last until 2023, which would certainly put a dampener on worldwide production.\nAnother important but less discussed issue, though, is the fact that large quantities of lithium are required to produce the batteries that power EVs. In the last year, lithium prices have more than quadrupled, and this may become an issue moving forward. Higher lithium prices will either limit production or hurt margins, neither of which is a good outcome for EV makers.\nLastly, NIO, together with other Chinese EV companies, may faces the threat of regulation. \nTakeaway\nIn conclusion, NIO is at these prices one of my highest conviction plays. $40/share is a great place to accumulate given the increased interest by both investors and consumers in the EV space. NIO is my favourite company both home and abroad, given its growth plans and a strong emphasis on building brand value. The current headwinds will be temporary, and growth will resume soon.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2318,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/841443981"}
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