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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":841256874,"tweetId":"841256874","gmtCreate":1635917996861,"gmtModify":1635917996915,"author":{"id":4094793078288150,"idStr":"4094793078288150","authorId":4094793078288150,"authorIdStr":"4094793078288150","name":"beanbun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>ok</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>ok</p></body></html>","text":"ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841256874","repostId":1105545673,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105545673","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635911832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105545673?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-03 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 things to watch for when Fed meets Wednesday<blockquote>美联储周三会议时需要注意的 5 件事</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105545673","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"The headlines of the story about Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting have already been writte","content":"<p>The headlines of the story about Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting have already been written. The devil, as they say, will be in the details.</p><p><blockquote>关于周三美联储政策会议的报道标题已经写好了。俗话说，细节决定成败。</blockquote></p><p> On the likely news, it is a “foregone conclusion” the Fed will announce Wednesday that a tapering of asset purchases will begin later this month, according to Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays.</p><p><blockquote>巴克莱银行（Barclays）首席美国经济学家迈克尔-加彭（Michael Gapen）表示，美联储将于周三宣布将于本月晚些时候开始缩减资产购买规模，这已成定局。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed has indicated the pace of reduction in its bond buying program is likely to be $15 billion per month. This means that the current pace of $120 billion in monthly asset purchases will end completely in the middle of next year.</p><p><blockquote>美联储表示，其债券购买计划的削减速度可能为每月150亿美元。这意味着目前每月1200亿美元的资产购买速度将在明年年中彻底结束。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s a look at what else economists and investors will be watching for when the Fed concludes the two-day meeting on Wednesday. The Fed will release a statement at 2 p.m. Eastern and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern.</p><p><blockquote>以下是美联储周三结束为期两天的会议时，经济学家和投资者还会关注哪些方面。美联储将于下午2点发表声明。东部和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于东部时间下午 2:30 举行新闻发布会。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Transitory inflation</h4> A lot has been written about Powell’s view that inflation is “transitory,” which doesn’t mean it will quickly reverse. Instead, it means that within a reasonable timeline, inflation will revert to its 2% target,” says Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisers.</p><p><blockquote><h4>暂时性通货膨胀</h4>关于鲍威尔的观点，即通货膨胀是 “暂时的 ”，这并不意味着通货膨胀会很快逆转，已经有很多文章发表了。相反，这意味着在合理的时间表内，通胀率将恢复到2%的目标，”SGH Macro Advisers首席美国经济学家Tim Duy说。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s statement in September said that “inflation is elevated, largely reflecting transitory factors.” and economists are divided over whether it will be included in the statement released Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>美联储9月份的声明称，“通胀上升，主要反映了暂时性因素”。经济学家对是否将其纳入周三发布的声明存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at BofA , thinks this key sentence will be edited so that it says “partly” reflecting transitory factors or a sentence is added about signs of more persistent inflation.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行美国经济主管米歇尔-迈耶（Michelle Meyer）认为，这一关键句子将被编辑，使其 “部分 ”反映暂时性因素，或者增加一句关于通胀持续迹象的句子。</blockquote></p><p> Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities, thinks the Fed will stick with the “largely reflecting transitory factors” language. This will imply no rush for interest rate hikes, he said.</p><p><blockquote>道明证券（TD Securities）首席美国宏观策略师吉姆-奥沙利文（Jim O'Sullivan）认为，美联储将坚持 “在很大程度上反映暂时性因素 ”的措辞。他说，这将意味着不会急于加息。</blockquote></p><p> The underpinnings of the “transitory” prediction are staring to “lose its luster,” said said Steve Friedman, senior macroeconomist at MacKay Shields, in an email. Inflation is looking more broad based, with shelter costs and a broader range of goods and services now registering price increases, he said.</p><p><blockquote>麦凯希尔兹公司（MacKay Shields）高级宏观经济学家史蒂夫-弗里德曼（Steve Friedman）在一封电子邮件中说，“暂时 ”预测的基础即将 “失去光泽”。他说，通货膨胀的基础越来越广泛，住房成本以及更广泛的商品和服务现在都出现了价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge,the personal consumption expenditure price index,rose at a 4.4% annual pace in October, the fastest pace in thirty years. In addition, wages had the largest quarterly increasessince the early 1990s.</p><p><blockquote>美联储最喜欢的通胀指标--个人消费支出价格指数--10月份年增长率为4.4%，为30年来最快。此外，工资出现了自 20 世纪 90 年代初以来最大的季度增幅。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Rate hikes</h4> Powell is likely to emphasize again that the decision to taper is independent from the decision to lift rates. But markets won’t pay much attention to those efforts, said Gapen of Barclays, in an note.</p><p><blockquote><h4>加息</h4>鲍威尔可能会再次强调，缩减规模的决定独立于加息的决定。但巴克莱银行的 Gapen 在一份报告中说，市场不会太关注这些努力。</blockquote></p><p> Markets continue to price in about two quarter-point rate hikes in 2022 and see the Fed transitioning quickly from ending asset purchases to raising short-term interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>市场继续消化 2022 年约两次加息 25 个百分点，并看到美联储迅速从结束资产购买过渡到提高短期利率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c920b4b538ee54a770dabde94f3a140b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In September, the Fed was evenly split over whether to raise rates next near and many Fed officials have signaled they want to end tapering in case rate hikes are needed, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，9 月份，美联储在近期是否加息的问题上存在势均力敌的分歧，许多美联储官员已表示，如果需要加息，他们希望结束缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> Michael Gregory, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto said he expects “we’ll still come away with the impression that the chances of liftoff later next year have moved much higher than the 50-50 odds portrayed by last meeting’s dot-plot.”</p><p><blockquote>多伦多蒙特利尔银行资本市场公司副首席经济学家迈克尔-格雷戈里（Michael Gregory）说，他预计 “我们仍然会得到这样的印象：明年晚些时候起飞的几率比上次会议的点阵图所描绘的 50-50 赔率要高得多”。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Balance sheet</h4> In 2016, some economists argued that the Fed should start to actually shrink its balance sheet before it raises interest rates. The central bank didn’t follow that approach but the argument is resurfacing again, said Mark Cabana, rates strategist at BofA Securities. Some Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, have signaled a willingness for an early move to shrink the balance sheet, which has risen to $8.6 trillion from $4.4 trillion prior to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote><h4>资产负债表</h4>2016年，一些经济学家认为，美联储在加息之前应该开始实际缩表。美国银行证券（BofA Securities）利率策略师马克-卡巴纳（Mark Cabana）说，央行没有采取这种做法，但这一论点又重新浮出水面。包括圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德在内的一些美联储官员已表示愿意尽早采取行动缩减资产负债表，资产负债表已从大流行前的 4.4 万亿美元升至 8.6 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Cabana said his base case is that the Fed follows the approach of the last cycle in 2017-2019 and moves to reduce the balance sheet once its benchmark rate is above 1%, which he pencils in to happen in the fourth quarter of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>卡巴纳表示，他的基本观点是，美联储遵循 2017-2019 年上一个周期的做法，一旦基准利率高于 1%，就会采取行动缩减资产负债表，他预计这将在 2023 年第四季度发生。</blockquote></p><p> But there are rising odds for an earlier move – in early 2023 – to shrink the balance sheet as it would be a more passive policy tightening that gives the labor market longer to heal. he said.</p><p><blockquote>但在 2023 年初提前收缩资产负债表的可能性越来越大，因为这将是一种更加被动的政策紧缩，会让劳动力市场有更长的时间来恢复。他说。</blockquote></p><p> To shrink the balance sheet, the Fed doesn’t have to sell securities that it holds. It can just let them mature and not reinvest the proceeds.</p><p><blockquote>要缩小资产负债表，美联储不必出售其持有的证券。它可以让它们成熟，而不是将收益再投资。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <h4>Ethics concern</h4> Powell is going to be asked about ethics concerns related to Fed officials trading for their personal accounts during the pandemic. Last month, the Fed announcednew rules to restrict trading by top officials.Two regional Fed presidents left their positions after their trading behavior in 2020 was criticized. Some progressive Democrats have questioned some of Powell’s own investment decisions, as well as decisions by his No. 2, Vice Chairman Richard Clarida. “We expect the Fed Chair to take time to explain the new procedures and push back against the perceptions that Fed officials were engaged in a form of self-dealing,” Gapen said.</p><p><blockquote><h4>伦理关注</h4>鲍威尔将被问及与美联储官员在疫情期间交易个人账户相关的道德问题。上个月，美联储宣布了限制高级官员交易的新规则。两位地区联储主席在2020年的交易行为受到批评后离职。一些进步民主党人质疑鲍威尔本人的一些投资决策，以及他的二号副主席理查德-克拉里达（Richard Clarida）的决策。“加彭说：”我们希望美联储主席花时间解释新程序，并反击美联储官员参与某种形式的自我交易的看法。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Second term for Powell</h4> Powell’s term as Fed chair ends early next year and some economists believe that Powell’s hands are tied as long as President Joe Biden hasn’t acted to reappoint him.</p><p><blockquote><h4>鲍威尔连任</h4>鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于明年初结束，一些经济学家认为，只要乔-拜登总统不采取行动重新任命鲍威尔，鲍威尔就会束手无策。</blockquote></p><p> “He cannot start to be Mr. Tough Guy [on inflation] as long as his reappointment is hanging in the balance,” said Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics. He added the Fed is under “kind of crazy pressure” from progressives. “I think that’s a really big complication for policy right now.”</p><p><blockquote>“粮农组织经济学首席经济学家罗伯特-布鲁斯卡（Robert Brusca）说：”只要他的连任悬而未决，他就不能开始成为（通胀问题上的）硬汉先生。他补充说，美联储正受到来自进步人士的 “疯狂压力”。“我认为这对现在的政策来说是一个很大的复杂问题”。</blockquote></p><p> At his last press conference in September, Powell demurred from making any statement on the matter. “I think the phrase goes – I have nothing for you on that today. Sorry, I’m just focused on my job,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>在9月份的最后一次新闻发布会上，鲍威尔拒绝就此事发表任何声明。“我觉得这句话是--我今天没什么可说的。对不起，我只是专注于我的工作，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 things to watch for when Fed meets Wednesday<blockquote>美联储周三会议时需要注意的 5 件事</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 things to watch for when Fed meets Wednesday<blockquote>美联储周三会议时需要注意的 5 件事</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-03 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The headlines of the story about Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting have already been written. The devil, as they say, will be in the details.</p><p><blockquote>关于周三美联储政策会议的报道标题已经写好了。俗话说，细节决定成败。</blockquote></p><p> On the likely news, it is a “foregone conclusion” the Fed will announce Wednesday that a tapering of asset purchases will begin later this month, according to Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays.</p><p><blockquote>巴克莱银行（Barclays）首席美国经济学家迈克尔-加彭（Michael Gapen）表示，美联储将于周三宣布将于本月晚些时候开始缩减资产购买规模，这已成定局。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed has indicated the pace of reduction in its bond buying program is likely to be $15 billion per month. This means that the current pace of $120 billion in monthly asset purchases will end completely in the middle of next year.</p><p><blockquote>美联储表示，其债券购买计划的削减速度可能为每月150亿美元。这意味着目前每月1200亿美元的资产购买速度将在明年年中彻底结束。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s a look at what else economists and investors will be watching for when the Fed concludes the two-day meeting on Wednesday. The Fed will release a statement at 2 p.m. Eastern and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern.</p><p><blockquote>以下是美联储周三结束为期两天的会议时，经济学家和投资者还会关注哪些方面。美联储将于下午2点发表声明。东部和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于东部时间下午 2:30 举行新闻发布会。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Transitory inflation</h4> A lot has been written about Powell’s view that inflation is “transitory,” which doesn’t mean it will quickly reverse. Instead, it means that within a reasonable timeline, inflation will revert to its 2% target,” says Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisers.</p><p><blockquote><h4>暂时性通货膨胀</h4>关于鲍威尔的观点，即通货膨胀是 “暂时的 ”，这并不意味着通货膨胀会很快逆转，已经有很多文章发表了。相反，这意味着在合理的时间表内，通胀率将恢复到2%的目标，”SGH Macro Advisers首席美国经济学家Tim Duy说。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s statement in September said that “inflation is elevated, largely reflecting transitory factors.” and economists are divided over whether it will be included in the statement released Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>美联储9月份的声明称，“通胀上升，主要反映了暂时性因素”。经济学家对是否将其纳入周三发布的声明存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at BofA , thinks this key sentence will be edited so that it says “partly” reflecting transitory factors or a sentence is added about signs of more persistent inflation.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行美国经济主管米歇尔-迈耶（Michelle Meyer）认为，这一关键句子将被编辑，使其 “部分 ”反映暂时性因素，或者增加一句关于通胀持续迹象的句子。</blockquote></p><p> Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities, thinks the Fed will stick with the “largely reflecting transitory factors” language. This will imply no rush for interest rate hikes, he said.</p><p><blockquote>道明证券（TD Securities）首席美国宏观策略师吉姆-奥沙利文（Jim O'Sullivan）认为，美联储将坚持 “在很大程度上反映暂时性因素 ”的措辞。他说，这将意味着不会急于加息。</blockquote></p><p> The underpinnings of the “transitory” prediction are staring to “lose its luster,” said said Steve Friedman, senior macroeconomist at MacKay Shields, in an email. Inflation is looking more broad based, with shelter costs and a broader range of goods and services now registering price increases, he said.</p><p><blockquote>麦凯希尔兹公司（MacKay Shields）高级宏观经济学家史蒂夫-弗里德曼（Steve Friedman）在一封电子邮件中说，“暂时 ”预测的基础即将 “失去光泽”。他说，通货膨胀的基础越来越广泛，住房成本以及更广泛的商品和服务现在都出现了价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge,the personal consumption expenditure price index,rose at a 4.4% annual pace in October, the fastest pace in thirty years. In addition, wages had the largest quarterly increasessince the early 1990s.</p><p><blockquote>美联储最喜欢的通胀指标--个人消费支出价格指数--10月份年增长率为4.4%，为30年来最快。此外，工资出现了自 20 世纪 90 年代初以来最大的季度增幅。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Rate hikes</h4> Powell is likely to emphasize again that the decision to taper is independent from the decision to lift rates. But markets won’t pay much attention to those efforts, said Gapen of Barclays, in an note.</p><p><blockquote><h4>加息</h4>鲍威尔可能会再次强调，缩减规模的决定独立于加息的决定。但巴克莱银行的 Gapen 在一份报告中说，市场不会太关注这些努力。</blockquote></p><p> Markets continue to price in about two quarter-point rate hikes in 2022 and see the Fed transitioning quickly from ending asset purchases to raising short-term interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>市场继续消化 2022 年约两次加息 25 个百分点，并看到美联储迅速从结束资产购买过渡到提高短期利率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c920b4b538ee54a770dabde94f3a140b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In September, the Fed was evenly split over whether to raise rates next near and many Fed officials have signaled they want to end tapering in case rate hikes are needed, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，9 月份，美联储在近期是否加息的问题上存在势均力敌的分歧，许多美联储官员已表示，如果需要加息，他们希望结束缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> Michael Gregory, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto said he expects “we’ll still come away with the impression that the chances of liftoff later next year have moved much higher than the 50-50 odds portrayed by last meeting’s dot-plot.”</p><p><blockquote>多伦多蒙特利尔银行资本市场公司副首席经济学家迈克尔-格雷戈里（Michael Gregory）说，他预计 “我们仍然会得到这样的印象：明年晚些时候起飞的几率比上次会议的点阵图所描绘的 50-50 赔率要高得多”。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Balance sheet</h4> In 2016, some economists argued that the Fed should start to actually shrink its balance sheet before it raises interest rates. The central bank didn’t follow that approach but the argument is resurfacing again, said Mark Cabana, rates strategist at BofA Securities. Some Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, have signaled a willingness for an early move to shrink the balance sheet, which has risen to $8.6 trillion from $4.4 trillion prior to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote><h4>资产负债表</h4>2016年，一些经济学家认为，美联储在加息之前应该开始实际缩表。美国银行证券（BofA Securities）利率策略师马克-卡巴纳（Mark Cabana）说，央行没有采取这种做法，但这一论点又重新浮出水面。包括圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德在内的一些美联储官员已表示愿意尽早采取行动缩减资产负债表，资产负债表已从大流行前的 4.4 万亿美元升至 8.6 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Cabana said his base case is that the Fed follows the approach of the last cycle in 2017-2019 and moves to reduce the balance sheet once its benchmark rate is above 1%, which he pencils in to happen in the fourth quarter of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>卡巴纳表示，他的基本观点是，美联储遵循 2017-2019 年上一个周期的做法，一旦基准利率高于 1%，就会采取行动缩减资产负债表，他预计这将在 2023 年第四季度发生。</blockquote></p><p> But there are rising odds for an earlier move – in early 2023 – to shrink the balance sheet as it would be a more passive policy tightening that gives the labor market longer to heal. he said.</p><p><blockquote>但在 2023 年初提前收缩资产负债表的可能性越来越大，因为这将是一种更加被动的政策紧缩，会让劳动力市场有更长的时间来恢复。他说。</blockquote></p><p> To shrink the balance sheet, the Fed doesn’t have to sell securities that it holds. It can just let them mature and not reinvest the proceeds.</p><p><blockquote>要缩小资产负债表，美联储不必出售其持有的证券。它可以让它们成熟，而不是将收益再投资。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <h4>Ethics concern</h4> Powell is going to be asked about ethics concerns related to Fed officials trading for their personal accounts during the pandemic. Last month, the Fed announcednew rules to restrict trading by top officials.Two regional Fed presidents left their positions after their trading behavior in 2020 was criticized. Some progressive Democrats have questioned some of Powell’s own investment decisions, as well as decisions by his No. 2, Vice Chairman Richard Clarida. “We expect the Fed Chair to take time to explain the new procedures and push back against the perceptions that Fed officials were engaged in a form of self-dealing,” Gapen said.</p><p><blockquote><h4>伦理关注</h4>鲍威尔将被问及与美联储官员在疫情期间交易个人账户相关的道德问题。上个月，美联储宣布了限制高级官员交易的新规则。两位地区联储主席在2020年的交易行为受到批评后离职。一些进步民主党人质疑鲍威尔本人的一些投资决策，以及他的二号副主席理查德-克拉里达（Richard Clarida）的决策。“加彭说：”我们希望美联储主席花时间解释新程序，并反击美联储官员参与某种形式的自我交易的看法。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Second term for Powell</h4> Powell’s term as Fed chair ends early next year and some economists believe that Powell’s hands are tied as long as President Joe Biden hasn’t acted to reappoint him.</p><p><blockquote><h4>鲍威尔连任</h4>鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于明年初结束，一些经济学家认为，只要乔-拜登总统不采取行动重新任命鲍威尔，鲍威尔就会束手无策。</blockquote></p><p> “He cannot start to be Mr. Tough Guy [on inflation] as long as his reappointment is hanging in the balance,” said Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics. He added the Fed is under “kind of crazy pressure” from progressives. “I think that’s a really big complication for policy right now.”</p><p><blockquote>“粮农组织经济学首席经济学家罗伯特-布鲁斯卡（Robert Brusca）说：”只要他的连任悬而未决，他就不能开始成为（通胀问题上的）硬汉先生。他补充说，美联储正受到来自进步人士的 “疯狂压力”。“我认为这对现在的政策来说是一个很大的复杂问题”。</blockquote></p><p> At his last press conference in September, Powell demurred from making any statement on the matter. “I think the phrase goes – I have nothing for you on that today. Sorry, I’m just focused on my job,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>在9月份的最后一次新闻发布会上，鲍威尔拒绝就此事发表任何声明。“我觉得这句话是--我今天没什么可说的。对不起，我只是专注于我的工作，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-things-to-watch-for-when-fed-meets-wednesday-11635878287?siteid=yhoof2\">Marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-things-to-watch-for-when-fed-meets-wednesday-11635878287?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1105545673","content_text":"The headlines of the story about Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting have already been written. The devil, as they say, will be in the details.\nOn the likely news, it is a “foregone conclusion” the Fed will announce Wednesday that a tapering of asset purchases will begin later this month, according to Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays.\nThe Fed has indicated the pace of reduction in its bond buying program is likely to be $15 billion per month. This means that the current pace of $120 billion in monthly asset purchases will end completely in the middle of next year.\nHere’s a look at what else economists and investors will be watching for when the Fed concludes the two-day meeting on Wednesday. The Fed will release a statement at 2 p.m. Eastern and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern.\nTransitory inflation\nA lot has been written about Powell’s view that inflation is “transitory,” which doesn’t mean it will quickly reverse. Instead, it means that within a reasonable timeline, inflation will revert to its 2% target,” says Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisers.\nThe Fed’s statement in September said that “inflation is elevated, largely reflecting transitory factors.” and economists are divided over whether it will be included in the statement released Wednesday.\nMichelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at BofA , thinks this key sentence will be edited so that it says “partly” reflecting transitory factors or a sentence is added about signs of more persistent inflation.\nJim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities, thinks the Fed will stick with the “largely reflecting transitory factors” language. This will imply no rush for interest rate hikes, he said.\nThe underpinnings of the “transitory” prediction are staring to “lose its luster,” said said Steve Friedman, senior macroeconomist at MacKay Shields, in an email. Inflation is looking more broad based, with shelter costs and a broader range of goods and services now registering price increases, he said.\nThe Fed’s favorite inflation gauge,the personal consumption expenditure price index,rose at a 4.4% annual pace in October, the fastest pace in thirty years. In addition, wages had the largest quarterly increasessince the early 1990s.\nRate hikes\nPowell is likely to emphasize again that the decision to taper is independent from the decision to lift rates. But markets won’t pay much attention to those efforts, said Gapen of Barclays, in an note.\nMarkets continue to price in about two quarter-point rate hikes in 2022 and see the Fed transitioning quickly from ending asset purchases to raising short-term interest rates.\n\nIn September, the Fed was evenly split over whether to raise rates next near and many Fed officials have signaled they want to end tapering in case rate hikes are needed, he said.\nMichael Gregory, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto said he expects “we’ll still come away with the impression that the chances of liftoff later next year have moved much higher than the 50-50 odds portrayed by last meeting’s dot-plot.”\nBalance sheet\nIn 2016, some economists argued that the Fed should start to actually shrink its balance sheet before it raises interest rates. The central bank didn’t follow that approach but the argument is resurfacing again, said Mark Cabana, rates strategist at BofA Securities. Some Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, have signaled a willingness for an early move to shrink the balance sheet, which has risen to $8.6 trillion from $4.4 trillion prior to the pandemic.\nCabana said his base case is that the Fed follows the approach of the last cycle in 2017-2019 and moves to reduce the balance sheet once its benchmark rate is above 1%, which he pencils in to happen in the fourth quarter of 2023.\nBut there are rising odds for an earlier move – in early 2023 – to shrink the balance sheet as it would be a more passive policy tightening that gives the labor market longer to heal. he said.\nTo shrink the balance sheet, the Fed doesn’t have to sell securities that it holds. It can just let them mature and not reinvest the proceeds.\nEthics concern\nPowell is going to be asked about ethics concerns related to Fed officials trading for their personal accounts during the pandemic. Last month, the Fed announcednew rules to restrict trading by top officials.Two regional Fed presidents left their positions after their trading behavior in 2020 was criticized. Some progressive Democrats have questioned some of Powell’s own investment decisions, as well as decisions by his No. 2, Vice Chairman Richard Clarida. “We expect the Fed Chair to take time to explain the new procedures and push back against the perceptions that Fed officials were engaged in a form of self-dealing,” Gapen said.\nSecond term for Powell\nPowell’s term as Fed chair ends early next year and some economists believe that Powell’s hands are tied as long as President Joe Biden hasn’t acted to reappoint him.\n“He cannot start to be Mr. Tough Guy [on inflation] as long as his reappointment is hanging in the balance,” said Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics. He added the Fed is under “kind of crazy pressure” from progressives. “I think that’s a really big complication for policy right now.”\nAt his last press conference in September, Powell demurred from making any statement on the matter. “I think the phrase goes – I have nothing for you on that today. Sorry, I’m just focused on my job,” he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":914,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/841256874"}