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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":841234433,"tweetId":"841234433","gmtCreate":1635913727447,"gmtModify":1635913727447,"author":{"id":4089861821723520,"idStr":"4089861821723520","authorId":4089861821723520,"authorIdStr":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":7,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>ok</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>ok</body></html>","text":"ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841234433","repostId":1175618425,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175618425","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635910485,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175618425?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-03 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Real-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司即将实行实际利率清算</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175618425","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 20","content":"(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.<blockquote>（彭博社）——大型科技股可能会面临自 2020 年 4 月以来最严重的债券波动，但一群华尔街策略师警告称，实际利率飙升最终可能会将它们从历史高点推下。</blockquote> With the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.<blockquote>由于美联储可能在本周宣布削减大流行病刺激措施，富国银行证券（Wells Fargo Securities）是最新一家警告称，经通胀调整后的收益率 “急剧 ”上升的可能性越来越大。这可能会给昂贵的科技股带来痛苦，特别是考虑到它们与国债市场阴谋的密切联系。</blockquote> “Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>“克里斯托弗-哈维（Christopher Harvey）领导的团队在周二的一份报告中写道：”我们在科技股上的看涨期权交易可能会面临风险，尤其是在'高辛烷值'的股票上。</blockquote> Hand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.<blockquote>华尔街对债券市场对科技股的威胁感到焦虑并不是什么新鲜事。这次的不同之处在于，国债周转达到了极端。最近几周，市场衍生的通胀预期有所上升，而名义收益率尚未变动得那么快，导致实际利率跌至历史低点附近。这目前正在推动科技股的估值，但逆转可能会引发无序的波动。</blockquote> “The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”<blockquote>“富国银行的报告称：”美联储预计将于本周宣布缩减规模，这可能会催化实际利率的重大方向性变化。“我们相信，最终的真实/盈亏平衡回归将是急剧的”。</blockquote> For now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.<blockquote>目前，科技股似乎与其他所有股票一起上涨。纳斯达克100指数、标普500指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000指数周二均创下历史新高。</blockquote> When real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.<blockquote>当实际收益率跌至谷底时，未来利润会以较低的利率贴现，从而推高被认为能够在未来几年增长收益的股票的估值。这就是为什么低利率提振了量化看涨期权成长股的原因，特斯拉公司或 Netflix Inc.</blockquote> All that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.<blockquote>所有这些都帮助纳斯达克 100 指数在本季度表现出色，富国银行自己的一篮子 “不惜一切代价增长 ”股票跃升 13%，再创新高。</blockquote> While tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.<blockquote>尽管科技股在过去十年中主导了低通胀世界，但其最近的反弹是在对消费者价格增长日益担忧的背景下发生的。随着盈亏平衡利率的上升，随着生活成本上涨而上涨的法国兴业银行一篮子股票刚刚创下了自二月份以来最好的一个月。</blockquote> Wells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.<blockquote>富国银行并不是唯一一家对大型科技公司的前景发出警报的公司。上次美联储开始撤回刺激措施时，就在其资产负债表再次扩张之前，实际利率开始大幅上升。摩根士丹利财富管理公司（Morgan Stanley Wealth Management）首席投资官丽莎-沙莱特（Lisa Shalett）上周警告说，鉴于目前这些收益率如此之低，“对于在主要指数中占据主导地位的大型成长型股票等长期资产来说，重估可能即将到来”。</blockquote> Over at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.<blockquote>瑞银资产管理公司(UBS Asset Management)策略师卢克·卡瓦(Luke Kawa)表示，尽管押注即将到来的货币紧缩政策，但实际收益率仍然很低，因为交易员预计美联储最终会改变方针，否则经济会因此下滑。但与此同时，他表示，实际利率也可能上升，以反映更快的增长和通胀。后一种情况有利于顺周期的股票敞口，但不利于市场的整体估值。</blockquote> “If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>“盛宝银行（Saxo Bank）股票策略主管彼得-加恩里（Peter Garnry）在周二的一份报告中写道：”如果世界正在进入一个通货膨胀率持续走高的世界，而名义收益率突然反映出这一点，那么全球股票估值将被重置到较低水平，导致股市大幅下跌。</blockquote> To many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?<blockquote>因此，对于华尔街的许多人来说，科技投资受制于宏观看涨期权。世界是否正走向一个有弹性的增长、更快的通胀和更紧缩的美联储政策时期，或者商业周期是否会在供应链瓶颈和刺激措施减少的压力下陷入停滞？</blockquote> That conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.<blockquote>这个难题在债券市场无处不在。虽然收益率曲线的短端因预期美联储采取行动而变得陡峭，但长端则因增长担忧而急剧变平。</blockquote> Meanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&amp;P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.<blockquote>与此同时，一种由期权衍生的国债波动性指标最近飙升至 2020 年 4 月以来的最高点，而标普500的等值波动性则徘徊在去年崩盘前以来的最低点附近。这表明固定收益市场可能正在向股市发出令人担忧的预兆。</blockquote> “From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利财富公司的沙莱特写道：”从现在开始，我们将进入周期中期调整，随着预期的重新调整和政策的正常化，涨幅将有所放缓。“10%-15% 的修正可能性正在增加。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Real-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司即将实行实际利率清算</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReal-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司即将实行实际利率清算</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBloomberg2021-11-03 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.<blockquote>（彭博社）——大型科技股可能会面临自 2020 年 4 月以来最严重的债券波动，但一群华尔街策略师警告称，实际利率飙升最终可能会将它们从历史高点推下。</blockquote> With the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.<blockquote>由于美联储可能在本周宣布削减大流行病刺激措施，富国银行证券（Wells Fargo Securities）是最新一家警告称，经通胀调整后的收益率 “急剧 ”上升的可能性越来越大。这可能会给昂贵的科技股带来痛苦，特别是考虑到它们与国债市场阴谋的密切联系。</blockquote> “Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>“克里斯托弗-哈维（Christopher Harvey）领导的团队在周二的一份报告中写道：”我们在科技股上的看涨期权交易可能会面临风险，尤其是在'高辛烷值'的股票上。</blockquote> Hand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.<blockquote>华尔街对债券市场对科技股的威胁感到焦虑并不是什么新鲜事。这次的不同之处在于，国债周转达到了极端。最近几周，市场衍生的通胀预期有所上升，而名义收益率尚未变动得那么快，导致实际利率跌至历史低点附近。这目前正在推动科技股的估值，但逆转可能会引发无序的波动。</blockquote> “The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”<blockquote>“富国银行的报告称：”美联储预计将于本周宣布缩减规模，这可能会催化实际利率的重大方向性变化。“我们相信，最终的真实/盈亏平衡回归将是急剧的”。</blockquote> For now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.<blockquote>目前，科技股似乎与其他所有股票一起上涨。纳斯达克100指数、标普500指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000指数周二均创下历史新高。</blockquote> When real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.<blockquote>当实际收益率跌至谷底时，未来利润会以较低的利率贴现，从而推高被认为能够在未来几年增长收益的股票的估值。这就是为什么低利率提振了量化看涨期权成长股的原因，特斯拉公司或 Netflix Inc.</blockquote> All that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.<blockquote>所有这些都帮助纳斯达克 100 指数在本季度表现出色，富国银行自己的一篮子 “不惜一切代价增长 ”股票跃升 13%，再创新高。</blockquote> While tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.<blockquote>尽管科技股在过去十年中主导了低通胀世界，但其最近的反弹是在对消费者价格增长日益担忧的背景下发生的。随着盈亏平衡利率的上升，随着生活成本上涨而上涨的法国兴业银行一篮子股票刚刚创下了自二月份以来最好的一个月。</blockquote> Wells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.<blockquote>富国银行并不是唯一一家对大型科技公司的前景发出警报的公司。上次美联储开始撤回刺激措施时，就在其资产负债表再次扩张之前，实际利率开始大幅上升。摩根士丹利财富管理公司（Morgan Stanley Wealth Management）首席投资官丽莎-沙莱特（Lisa Shalett）上周警告说，鉴于目前这些收益率如此之低，“对于在主要指数中占据主导地位的大型成长型股票等长期资产来说，重估可能即将到来”。</blockquote> Over at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.<blockquote>瑞银资产管理公司(UBS Asset Management)策略师卢克·卡瓦(Luke Kawa)表示，尽管押注即将到来的货币紧缩政策，但实际收益率仍然很低，因为交易员预计美联储最终会改变方针，否则经济会因此下滑。但与此同时，他表示，实际利率也可能上升，以反映更快的增长和通胀。后一种情况有利于顺周期的股票敞口，但不利于市场的整体估值。</blockquote> “If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>“盛宝银行（Saxo Bank）股票策略主管彼得-加恩里（Peter Garnry）在周二的一份报告中写道：”如果世界正在进入一个通货膨胀率持续走高的世界，而名义收益率突然反映出这一点，那么全球股票估值将被重置到较低水平，导致股市大幅下跌。</blockquote> To many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?<blockquote>因此，对于华尔街的许多人来说，科技投资受制于宏观看涨期权。世界是否正走向一个有弹性的增长、更快的通胀和更紧缩的美联储政策时期，或者商业周期是否会在供应链瓶颈和刺激措施减少的压力下陷入停滞？</blockquote> That conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.<blockquote>这个难题在债券市场无处不在。虽然收益率曲线的短端因预期美联储采取行动而变得陡峭，但长端则因增长担忧而急剧变平。</blockquote> Meanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&amp;P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.<blockquote>与此同时，一种由期权衍生的国债波动性指标最近飙升至 2020 年 4 月以来的最高点，而标普500的等值波动性则徘徊在去年崩盘前以来的最低点附近。这表明固定收益市场可能正在向股市发出令人担忧的预兆。</blockquote> “From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利财富公司的沙莱特写道：”从现在开始，我们将进入周期中期调整，随着预期的重新调整和政策的正常化，涨幅将有所放缓。“10%-15% 的修正可能性正在增加。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-rate-reckoning-coming-big-141233636.html\">Bloomberg</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WFC":"富国银行"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-rate-reckoning-coming-big-141233636.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175618425","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.\nWith the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.\n“Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.\nHand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.\n“The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”\nFor now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.\nWhen real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.\nAll that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.\nWhile tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.\nWells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.\nOver at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.\n“If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.\nTo many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?\nThat conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.\nMeanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.\n“From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WFC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1214,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/841234433"}