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2021-11-02

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Palantir: What Growth Could Mean For Price In 2025 And Beyond<blockquote>Palantir：增长对 2025 年及以后的价格意味着什么</blockquote>

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What's growth really mean for Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)investors in 2022, 2023, 2024 and beyond? This is more difficult to answer than it might appear on the surface but all will be revealed.<blockquote>真的很简单。2022 年、2023 年、2024 年及以后的增长对 Palantir（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）投资者来说到底意味着什么？这比表面上看起来更难回答，但一切都会水落石出。</blockquote> Here's how the article will play out.<blockquote>以下是这篇文章的内容。</blockquote> <ul> <li>First, I look at PLTR's early growth from $10 to $25 or so today. I don't expect the same year-over-year growth, but PLTR investors today could still do very well.</li> <li>Second, I review PLTR's growth assumptions once again showing how 30% growth per year is too probably too modest. I still believe PLTR is sandbagging.</li> <li>Third, I show how leverage on PLTR using long-dated options probably isn't going to greatly accelerate investor gains over the next 2-3 years. That's not to say options are bad, but LEAPS don't look sexy here.</li> <li>Lastly, I explain how many shares are needed right now to reach $1 million in PLTR stock by the end of 2025, given rational growth models. This is not \"get rich quick\" at all, but instead it's meant to be an intriguing way to frame future growth for any investor.</li> </ul> Past Performance Won't Get You There<blockquote><ul><li>首先，我看一下 PLTR 从 10 美元到今天 25 美元左右的早期增长。我预计不会出现同样的同比增长，但 PLTR 投资者今天仍然可以做得很好。</li><li>其次，我再次回顾了 PLTR 的增长假设，表明每年 30% 的增长可能过于温和。我仍然相信PLTR是沙袋。</li><li>第三，我展示了使用长期期权对 PLTR 的杠杆可能不会在未来 2-3 年内大大加速投资者的收益。这并不是说选择不好，但跳跃在这里看起来并不性感。</li><li>最后，我解释了考虑到理性增长模型，到 2025 年底，PLTR 股票需要多少股才能达到 100 万美元。这根本不是“快速致富”，而是为了成为任何投资者规划未来增长的一种有趣方式。</li></ul>过去的表现不会让你到达那里</blockquote> Let's start with a basic approach. Here's how PLTR looks thus far:<blockquote>让我们从基本方法开始。以下是 PLTR 到目前为止的样子：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae3bb5915890ce620bdb3015a49df9b2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> In one year, PLTR has gone up 155% going from $10 on September 30th, 2020 through $25.88 on October 29th, 2021. (I'm seeing $26.47 right now.)<blockquote>一年内，PLTR 从 2020 年 9 月 30 日的 10 美元上涨至 2021 年 10 月 29 日的 25.88 美元，上涨了 155%。（我现在看到 26.47 美元。）</blockquote> Although I don't expect similar results going forward, we can roughly estimate how things would look. It's been about 400 days since PLTR's DPO. Therefore, very grossly speaking, PLTR is gaining about 0.23% per day compounded. I did that fast, and very back-of-napkin, but it's still fun and interesting, if not ridiculous. Here's how things would look now if you bought at the DPO:<blockquote>虽然我预计未来不会有类似的结果，但我们可以大致估计事情会是什么样子。距离PLTR的DPO已经过去了大约400天。因此，粗略地说，PLTR 每天复合上涨约 0.23%。我做得很快，而且非常事后，但它仍然很有趣，如果不是荒谬的话。如果您在 DPO 购买，现在的情况如下：</blockquote> <ul> <li>10 shares at DPO for $100 = $250</li> <li>100 shares at DPO for $1,000 = $2,500</li> <li>1,000 shares at DPO for $10,000 = $25,000</li> <li>10,000 shares at DPO for $100,000 = $250,000</li> </ul> In other words, even with $100K invested you would not yet be a PLTR millionaire. How many more days at 0.23% would it take to reach $1 million in PLTR stock in this case? Here's the math:<blockquote><ul><li>DPO 10 股，100 美元 = 250 美元</li><li>DPO 100 股，1,000 美元 = 2,500 美元</li><li>1,000 股 DPO 股票，10,000 美元 = 25,000 美元</li><li>DPO 的 10,000 股股票，价格为 100,000 美元 = 250,000 美元</li></ul>换句话说，即使投资了10万美元，你也不会成为PLTR百万富翁。在这种情况下，0.23% 的 PLTR 股票还需要多少天才能达到 100 万美元？数学如下：</blockquote> <ul> <li>10 shares at DPO = 4,000 days (about 11 years)</li> <li>100 shares at DPO = 3,000 days (about 8 years)</li> <li>1,000 shares at DPO = 2,000 days (about 5.5 years)</li> <li>10,000 shares at DPO = 1,000 days (about 2.5 years)</li> </ul> Of course, this is mostly absurd. Getting 150% returns per year is outlandish and it would have required buying right at the DPO for $10 per share. Plus, you'd need to keep getting 150% per year. Also, it would require zero selling. And, much more. Although this is all fun, it's unrealistic for most investors.<blockquote><ul><li>10 股 DPO = 4,000 天（约 11 年）</li><li>DPO 时 100 股 = 3,000 天（约 8 年）</li><li>1,000 股 DPO = 2,000 天（约 5.5 年）</li><li>10,000股DPO=1,000天（约2.5年）</li></ul>当然，这大多是荒谬的。每年获得 150% 的回报率是古怪的，而且需要在 DPO 以每股 10 美元的价格购买。另外，你需要继续每年获得150%。此外，它需要零销售。还有更多。虽然这一切都很有趣，但对大多数投资者来说这是不现实的。</blockquote> So, the first big point is that even starting with a lot of money and lot of shares,very few investors are hitting $1 million with PLTR right now. And, even with robust assumptions, it'll take many more years to hit the big goal. Therefore, patience is required. There's no way around the math.<blockquote>所以，第一个要点是，即使一开始有很多钱和很多股票，目前很少有投资者通过 PLTR 达到 100 万美元.而且，即使有可靠的假设，实现这个大目标也需要很多年的时间。因此，需要耐心。没有办法绕过数学。</blockquote> More Reasonable Assumptions<blockquote>更合理的假设</blockquote> For a moment, let's review one basic ratio.<blockquote>让我们回顾一下一个基本比率。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03d62686c7b3057066e9993cc4c676c3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Squinting a bit, you can see that PLTR's average price-to-sales ratio is about 28. Next, here are several more mature software companies, plus PayPal(NASDAQ:PYPL), CrowdStrike(NASDAQ:CRWD)and Snowflake(NYSE:SNOW)for a bit of fun, and added perspective.<blockquote>稍微眯起眼睛，可以看到PLTR的平均市销率约为28。接下来，这里有几家更成熟的软件公司，加上PayPal（纳斯达克股票代码：PYPL）、CrowdStrike（纳斯达克股票代码：CRWD）和雪花（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SNOW），以获得一点乐趣并增加视角。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b5712325a7823b3bfb18b559201dbcc\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Not surprisingly, SNOW still has a much higher P/S ratio than PLTR. That's been the case for a while. And, CRWD is quite a bit higher. Then, naturally, all the older and bigger software companies I've shown here have significantly lower P/S ratios.Maturity acts like gravity, pulling P/S down.<blockquote>毫不奇怪，SNOW 的市盈率仍然比 PLTR 高得多。这种情况已经持续了一段时间。而且，CRWD要高得多。然后，很自然地，我在这里展示的所有老牌和大型软件公司的市盈率都明显较低。成熟度就像重力一样，拉低市盈率。</blockquote> However, with PLTR, I could easily see the P/S hold around 28 for the next several years as long as strong growth is maintained. In fact, we could see the P/S grow upwards to 40-50, or perhaps higher. On the other hand, it could drop down into the 18-22 range. Of course, anything is possible but I'm trying to establish some guardrails.<blockquote>然而，有了PLTR，只要保持强劲增长，我很容易看到未来几年市盈率保持在28左右。事实上，我们可以看到市盈率上升到40-50，甚至更高。另一方面，它可能会下降到18-22的范围。当然，一切皆有可能，但我正试图建立一些护栏。</blockquote> Here's why this matters:<blockquote>这就是为什么这很重要：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1c90ea898fbbebcb6c5d7e728153db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: PLTR Q2 Earnings Slides<blockquote>资料来源：PLTR 第二季度收益幻灯片</blockquote> If revenue growth holds at 30% and price holds with respect to those sales, as the ratios indicate at this point, then we can do a bit of extrapolation. In other words, assuming 30% share price increases year over year isn't too crazy. Here's how that looks, assuming we start with a price of $25 right now:<blockquote>如果收入增长保持在30%，价格相对于这些销售保持不变，正如此时的比率所示，那么我们可以做一点推断。换句话说，假设股价同比上涨30%并不算太疯狂。假设我们现在从 25 美元的价格开始，情况如下：</blockquote> <ul> <li>2022 = $32.50</li> <li>2023 = $42.25</li> <li>2024 = $54.93</li> <li>2025 = $71.40</li> </ul> But, here's the rub. I think that maybe PLTR is sandbagging. I wrote an article all about this with a&nbsp;ton of interesting proof.<blockquote><ul><li>2022=$32.50</li><li>2023=$42.25</li><li>2024=$54.93</li><li>2025=$71.40</li></ul>但是，问题来了。我想也许PLTR是沙袋。我写了一篇关于这个的文章，里面有一大堆有趣的证据。</blockquote> In fact, 40% growth might also be too conservative, and according to my projections, PLTR is actually quite capable of 50% CAGR through 2025. For reference:Palantir Is Sandbagging Growth Projections.<blockquote>事实上，40%的增长也可能过于保守，根据我的预测，到2025年，PLTR实际上完全有能力实现50%的CAGR。供参考：Palantir 正在沙袋增长预测。</blockquote> Now, stick with me. Because at this point, we're moving from 30%, to a much higher set of numbers.<blockquote>现在，跟着我。因为在这一点上，我们正在从30%走向一个更高的数字。</blockquote> Follow The Math<blockquote>遵循数学</blockquote> I ran some numbers back in that article back in June 2021 when PLTR was trading a little bit lower, at $24. Here are those projections:<blockquote>我在 2021 年 6 月的那篇文章中回顾了一些数字，当时 PLTR 的交易价格略低，为 24 美元。以下是这些预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>2022 = $34 (40% growth)</li> <li>2023 = $47 (40% growth)</li> <li>2024 = $66 (40% growth)</li> <li>2025 = $92 (40% growth)</li> </ul> Then...<blockquote><ul><li>2022 年 = 34 美元（增长 40%）</li><li>2023 年 = 47 美元（增长 40%）</li><li>2024 年 = 66 美元（增长 40%）</li><li>2025 年 = 92 美元（增长 40%）</li></ul>然后……...</blockquote> <ul> <li>2022 = $36 (50% growth)</li> <li>2023 = $54 (50% growth)</li> <li>2024 = $81 (50% growth)</li> <li>2025 = $122 (50% growth)</li> </ul> Again, for reference:Palantir Is Sandbagging Growth Projections. The math tells us that if PLTR is expecting $4 billion in revenue by 2025, then it's got to grow way above 30%. So,going way above $100 is perfectly rational.<blockquote><ul><li>2022 年 = 36 美元（增长 50%）</li><li>2023 年 = 54 美元（增长 50%）</li><li>2024 年 = 81 美元（增长 50%）</li><li>2025 年 = 122 美元（增长 50%）</li></ul>再次供参考：Palantir 正在对增长预测进行打包。数学告诉我们，如果 PLTR 预计到 2025 年收入将达到 40 亿美元，那么它的增长率必须远远超过 30%。所以，远高于100美元是完全合理的。</blockquote> Therefore, in 2025, being a PLTR millionaire would require just under 11,000 shares assuming 40% growth and hitting $92. Being a PLTR millionaire would require about 8,200 shares assuming 50% growth and hitting $122 per share.<blockquote>因此，到 2025 年，假设增长 40% 并达到 92 美元，成为 PLTR 百万富翁只需要不到 11,000 股股票。假设增长 50% 并达到每股 122 美元，成为 PLTR 百万富翁需要大约 8,200 股股票。</blockquote> Getting your hands on 11,000 shares right now at $26 would set you back $286K and 8,200 shares would cost you about $213K. Roughly speaking, you'd need $200-300K of PLTR, depending on your assumptions, and then how things actually work out.<blockquote>现在以 26 美元的价格购买 11,000 股股票将花费您 28.6 万美元，而 8,200 股股票将花费您约 21.3 万美元。粗略地说，你需要200-30万美元的PLTR，这取决于你的假设，以及事情的实际结果。</blockquote> Obviously, you can run your own numbers for your own portfolio from this point. The frameworks are simple, but clear. While I don't expect any kind of smooth growth from here, I do expect tremendous and growing strength over the coming 3-5 years, let alone the next 8-10 years.<blockquote>显然，从这一点开始，您可以为自己的投资组合运行自己的数字。这些框架很简单，但很清晰。虽然我不指望这里会有任何平稳的增长，但我确实预计在未来3-5年，更不用说未来8-10年了，会有巨大的增长实力。</blockquote> With a substantial \"down payment\" becoming a PLTR millionaire isn't impossible, but that's not exact the point. Instead, it's to consider the tremendous growth in PLTR itself, but also the share price along the way. Even a modest amount of PLTR could turn into a handsome pile; thank you, growth.<blockquote>有了一大笔“首付”，成为PLTR百万富翁并非不可能，但这并不是重点。相反，要考虑PLTR本身的巨大增长，还要考虑一路上的股价。即使是适量的PLTR也可以变成一堆漂亮的东西；谢谢你，成长。</blockquote> Is Leverage Worth It?<blockquote>杠杆值得吗？</blockquote> Maybe we could use options to&nbsp;exploit leverage:<blockquote>也许我们可以使用选项来利用杠杆：</blockquote> Options can provide leverage. This means an option buyer can pay a relatively small premium for market exposure in relation to the contract value (usually 100 shares of the underlying stock). An investor can see large percentage gains from comparatively small, favorable percentage moves in the underlying product. Just remember the key risk if you're buying options:<blockquote>期权可以提供杠杆。这意味着期权买方可以为相对于合约价值（通常是 100 股标的股票）的市场敞口支付相对较小的溢价。投资者可以从基础产品相对较小、有利的百分比变动中看到较大的百分比收益。如果您购买期权，请记住关键风险：</blockquote> Leverage also has downside implications. If the underlying stock price does not rise or fall as anticipated during the lifetime of the option, leverage could magnify the investment's percentage loss. Options offer their owners a predetermined, set risk. However, if the owner's options expire with no value, this loss can be the entire amount of the premium paid for the option. [Emphasis: Author's] And, depending on your belief or \"faith\" in PLTR's growth, you could use long dated options or \"LEAPS\" to become wealthy with PLTR.<blockquote>杠杆也有负面影响。如果标的股票价格在期权有效期内没有按预期上涨或下跌，杠杆可能会放大投资的百分比损失。期权为其所有者提供了预定的、设定的风险。但是，如果所有者的期权到期时没有价值，则该损失可能是为期权支付的全部权利金.[强调：作者]而且，根据您对 PLTR 增长的信念或“信念”，您可以使用长期以来的选择或“飞跃”通过 PLTR 致富。</blockquote> For example, we can easily go out all the way to early 2024:<blockquote>例如，我们可以轻松地一路走到 2024 年初：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd29dee567adf170dd52396e1525bf0\" tg-width=\"397\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade<blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券</blockquote> Assuming you could buy PLTR LEAPs for $4.75 with a strike price of $40, then you could potentially do quite well if PLTR's growth numbers play out.<blockquote>假设您可以以 4.75 美元的价格购买 PLTR LEAPs，执行价格为 40 美元，那么如果 PLTR 的增长数据发挥作用，您可能会做得很好。</blockquote> With 40% share price growth, PLTR would hit $47 by the end of 2023. And, with 50% growth, PLTR would hit $54 by the end of 2023.<blockquote>随着股价增长 40%，PLTR 到 2023 年底将达到 47 美元。而且，随着 50% 的增长，到 2023 年底，PLTR 将达到 54 美元。</blockquote> At a glance that sounds good,but it's not fantastic. I don't even really have to run the numbers because at a glance you can see that you'd maybe 2x to 3x your money invested right now using PLTR LEAPS with a $40 strike.<blockquote>乍一看不错，但这并不奇妙.我甚至不需要真正运行数字，因为一眼就能看出，使用 40 美元的 PLTR LEAPS，您现在投资的资金可能会增加 2 到 3 倍。</blockquote> Instead, maybe we'd want to look more closely at the $27 strike, for example:<blockquote>相反，也许我们想更仔细地研究一下 27 美元的行情，例如：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca9ccabc791d1c116f6cda58e4dcf606\" tg-width=\"397\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade<blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券</blockquote> At this point, assuming $8 for each PLTR Jan 2024 LEAP with a $27 strike, we're looking at $12 assuming gains per LEAP with 40% growth. Furthermore, we're look at about $19 gains per LEAP with 50% growth.<blockquote>此时，假设 2024 年 1 月 PLTR 每次上涨 8 美元，执行价格为 27 美元，那么假设每次上涨的收益为 40%，我们预计将达到 12 美元。此外，我们预计每次跳跃收益约为 19 美元，增长率为 50%。</blockquote> To be clear, what I'm doing is adding the $8 LEAP cost and the $27 strike price. That's $35. Then, I'm taking $47 which assumes 40% growth, and subtracting to get the difference, which is $12. And, I'm taking the $54 which assumes 50% growth, and subtracting the same way to get $19. Nothing too fancy here, and no complicated math. Either way,it falls short again.<blockquote>需要明确的是，我所做的是加上 8 美元的跳跃成本和 27 美元的执行价格。那是35美元。然后，我取47美元，假设增长40%，减去差额，即12美元。而且，我取54美元，假设增长50%，用同样的方法减去19美元。这里没有太花哨的东西，也没有复杂的数学。不管怎样，又不够了.</blockquote> Putting $8 in maybe gets us 1.5x to 2.5x returns in about 2 years. Of course, it could be more like 3x, or even maybe a bit higher. However, buying and holding is likely to generate similar gains,with less risk.<blockquote>投入 8 美元可能会在大约 2 年内获得 1.5 倍至 2.5 倍的回报。当然，它可能更像3倍，甚至可能更高一点。然而，买入和持有可能产生类似的收益，风险较小.</blockquote> The message is this. The options market is smart, and forward looking. And, in this case, it's basically letting us know that PLTR's growth is likely to be in the 40-50% range, as I've explained above. The deeper lesson is to have patience with PLTR common equity. The growth is there and leverage won't accelerate gains without adding too much risk.<blockquote>信息是这样的。期权市场是聪明且具有前瞻性的。而且，在这种情况下，它基本上让我们知道 PLTR 的增长可能在 40-50% 范围内，正如我上面解释的那样。更深层次的教训是对 PLTR 普通股要有耐心。增长是存在的，杠杆不会在不增加太多风险的情况下加速收益。</blockquote> At this point in time, I'm not investing in PLTR LEAPS. Buying and holding, with strong growth tailwinds is plenty good enough for most investors. Or, at a minimum, buying PLTR and holding is good enough for my portfolio.<blockquote>目前，我不会投资 PLTR LEAPS。对于大多数投资者来说，强劲的增长顺风买入并持有已经足够好了。或者，至少，购买 PLTR 并持有对于我的投资组合来说已经足够好了。</blockquote> Wrap Up<blockquote>包装</blockquote> First, I looked at PLTR's early growth from $10 to $25 or so today. I'm not expecting 150% gains every year, however. That's far too greedy and besides, the uncertainty around PLTR is slowly fading, thereby stabilizing things quite a bit. In part, this is what's holding PLTR in the $22 to $28 range, I believe. The burn off of uncertainty has built a floor, or trading zone. I'm confident this floor will move upwards in 2022.<blockquote>首先，我看了 PLTR 从 10 美元到今天 25 美元左右的早期增长情况。然而，我预计每年不会有 150% 的涨幅。这太贪婪了，而且，PLTR 周围的不确定性正在慢慢消退，从而稳定了局势。我相信，在某种程度上，这就是 PLTR 维持在 22 至 28 美元区间的原因。不确定性的燃烧已经建立了一个底部或交易区。我相信这层楼会在2022年上升。</blockquote> Second, I reviewed PLTR's growth assumptions once again, showing how 30% growth per year is too probably too modest. Instead, it's looking like we'll see more like 40-50% per year for the next 3-5 years. Furthermore, assuming there's not a collapse in the P/S ratio, investors could enjoy 40-50% capital gains per year, although it might be quite lumpy along the way. If this is true, then hitting $90 to $120 in 2025 is rational.<blockquote>其次，我再次回顾了 PLTR 的增长假设，表明每年 30% 的增长可能过于温和。相反，看起来在接下来的3-5年里，我们每年会看到40-50%的增长。此外，假设市盈率没有崩溃，投资者每年可以享受40-50%的资本收益，尽管一路上可能会相当不稳定。如果这是真的，那么2025年达到90美元到120美元是合理的。</blockquote> As a quick sidebar, I can see PLTR hitting somewhere between $65 to $85 by the end of 2023, along the way. If PLTR can show concrete growth, and if they can taper&nbsp;stock-based compensation, this seems quite plausible.<blockquote>作为一个快速侧栏，我可以看到 PLTR 到 2023 年底将达到 65 美元至 85 美元之间。如果PLTR能够显示出具体的增长，并且如果他们能够逐步减少基于股票的薪酬，这似乎是相当合理的。</blockquote> Third, I've used long-dated options and some rough math to show that using leverage on PLTR in the market probably isn't going to greatly accelerate gains over 2-3 years. However, even it does work out, the risk to capital goes up. While there are some times where options work well, e.g.,selling PLTR puts, using LEAPS right now doesn't look favorable enough. Better to buy and hold, in most cases.<blockquote>第三，我使用了长期期权和一些粗略的数学计算来表明，在市场上使用 PLTR 的杠杆可能不会在 2-3 年内大幅加速收益。然而，即使成功了，资本风险也会上升。虽然有时期权效果很好，例如出售 PLTR 看跌期权，但现在使用 LEAPS 看起来不够有利。在大多数情况下，最好买入并持有。</blockquote> As another sidebar, I enjoyed looking at PLTR LEAPS, which gives investors some added confidence in PLTR's growth over the next 2-3 years. The options market is rather intelligent as a wisdom of the crowds prediction model. I'm seeing an optimistic \"thumbs up\" right now.Growth Stock Renegadesubscribers got an extra special view of this phenomenon, I might add.<blockquote>作为另一个侧边栏，我喜欢关注 PLTR LEAPS，这让投资者对 PLTR 未来 2-3 年的增长更有信心。期权市场是相当聪明的人群预测模型。我现在看到了一个乐观的“竖起大拇指”。成长股叛徒我可以补充一点，订户对这种现象有了额外的特殊看法。</blockquote> And lastly, as a fun exercise, I've shown that you'd likely need 8,000 to 12,000 shares, and 40-50% CAGR on those shares, to reach $1 million. That would require setting aside $200-300K, and waiting patiently until 2025. Maybe that's acceptable, and maybe not, but at least you have a framework now to understand the potential. That's the real point.<blockquote>最后，作为一个有趣的练习，我已经表明，你可能需要8,000到12,000股股票，以及这些股票40-50%的CAGR，才能达到100万美元。这需要拨出 20-30 万美元，并耐心等到 2025 年。也许这是可以接受的，也许不是，但至少你现在有一个框架来理解潜力。这才是真正的重点。</blockquote> Obviously, you can take all of this data plus the growth rates and come to your own conclusions. What I know is that my confidence in PLTR is still quite high and I continue to maintain my bullish position.<blockquote>显然，你可以把所有这些数据加上增长率，得出自己的结论。我所知道的是，我对PLTR的信心仍然相当高，我继续维持看涨立场。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: What Growth Could Mean For Price In 2025 And Beyond<blockquote>Palantir：增长对 2025 年及以后的价格意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: What Growth Could Mean For Price In 2025 And Beyond<blockquote>Palantir：增长对 2025 年及以后的价格意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeekingAlpha2021-11-02 22:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>First, I look at PLTR's early growth from $10 to $25 or so today.</li> <li>Second, I review PLTR's growth assumptions once again showing how 30% growth per year is probably too modest.</li> <li>Third, I show how leverage on PLTR using long-dated options probably isn't going to greatly accelerate investor gains over the next 2-3 years.</li> <li>Fourth, I explain how many shares are needed right now to reach $1 million in PLTR stock by the end of 2025, given rational growth models.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/914f43b37e64c3a5067eb0b621b8686c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">KevinHyde/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>首先，我看一下 PLTR 从 10 美元到今天 25 美元左右的早期增长。</li><li>其次，我再次回顾了 PLTR 的增长假设，表明每年 30% 的增长可能过于温和。</li><li>第三，我展示了使用长期期权对 PLTR 的杠杆可能不会在未来 2-3 年内大大加速投资者的收益。</li><li>第四，我解释了考虑到理性增长模型，到 2025 年底，PLTR 股票需要多少股才能达到 100 万美元。</li></ul>凯文·海德/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Background<blockquote>背景</blockquote> It's very simple really. What's growth really mean for Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)investors in 2022, 2023, 2024 and beyond? This is more difficult to answer than it might appear on the surface but all will be revealed.<blockquote>真的很简单。2022 年、2023 年、2024 年及以后的增长对 Palantir（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）投资者来说到底意味着什么？这比表面上看起来更难回答，但一切都会水落石出。</blockquote> Here's how the article will play out.<blockquote>以下是这篇文章的内容。</blockquote> <ul> <li>First, I look at PLTR's early growth from $10 to $25 or so today. I don't expect the same year-over-year growth, but PLTR investors today could still do very well.</li> <li>Second, I review PLTR's growth assumptions once again showing how 30% growth per year is too probably too modest. I still believe PLTR is sandbagging.</li> <li>Third, I show how leverage on PLTR using long-dated options probably isn't going to greatly accelerate investor gains over the next 2-3 years. That's not to say options are bad, but LEAPS don't look sexy here.</li> <li>Lastly, I explain how many shares are needed right now to reach $1 million in PLTR stock by the end of 2025, given rational growth models. This is not \"get rich quick\" at all, but instead it's meant to be an intriguing way to frame future growth for any investor.</li> </ul> Past Performance Won't Get You There<blockquote><ul><li>首先，我看一下 PLTR 从 10 美元到今天 25 美元左右的早期增长。我预计不会出现同样的同比增长，但 PLTR 投资者今天仍然可以做得很好。</li><li>其次，我再次回顾了 PLTR 的增长假设，表明每年 30% 的增长可能过于温和。我仍然相信PLTR是沙袋。</li><li>第三，我展示了使用长期期权对 PLTR 的杠杆可能不会在未来 2-3 年内大大加速投资者的收益。这并不是说选择不好，但跳跃在这里看起来并不性感。</li><li>最后，我解释了考虑到理性增长模型，到 2025 年底，PLTR 股票需要多少股才能达到 100 万美元。这根本不是“快速致富”，而是为了成为任何投资者规划未来增长的一种有趣方式。</li></ul>过去的表现不会让你到达那里</blockquote> Let's start with a basic approach. Here's how PLTR looks thus far:<blockquote>让我们从基本方法开始。以下是 PLTR 到目前为止的样子：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae3bb5915890ce620bdb3015a49df9b2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> In one year, PLTR has gone up 155% going from $10 on September 30th, 2020 through $25.88 on October 29th, 2021. (I'm seeing $26.47 right now.)<blockquote>一年内，PLTR 从 2020 年 9 月 30 日的 10 美元上涨至 2021 年 10 月 29 日的 25.88 美元，上涨了 155%。（我现在看到 26.47 美元。）</blockquote> Although I don't expect similar results going forward, we can roughly estimate how things would look. It's been about 400 days since PLTR's DPO. Therefore, very grossly speaking, PLTR is gaining about 0.23% per day compounded. I did that fast, and very back-of-napkin, but it's still fun and interesting, if not ridiculous. Here's how things would look now if you bought at the DPO:<blockquote>虽然我预计未来不会有类似的结果，但我们可以大致估计事情会是什么样子。距离PLTR的DPO已经过去了大约400天。因此，粗略地说，PLTR 每天复合上涨约 0.23%。我做得很快，而且非常事后，但它仍然很有趣，如果不是荒谬的话。如果您在 DPO 购买，现在的情况如下：</blockquote> <ul> <li>10 shares at DPO for $100 = $250</li> <li>100 shares at DPO for $1,000 = $2,500</li> <li>1,000 shares at DPO for $10,000 = $25,000</li> <li>10,000 shares at DPO for $100,000 = $250,000</li> </ul> In other words, even with $100K invested you would not yet be a PLTR millionaire. How many more days at 0.23% would it take to reach $1 million in PLTR stock in this case? Here's the math:<blockquote><ul><li>DPO 10 股，100 美元 = 250 美元</li><li>DPO 100 股，1,000 美元 = 2,500 美元</li><li>1,000 股 DPO 股票，10,000 美元 = 25,000 美元</li><li>DPO 的 10,000 股股票，价格为 100,000 美元 = 250,000 美元</li></ul>换句话说，即使投资了10万美元，你也不会成为PLTR百万富翁。在这种情况下，0.23% 的 PLTR 股票还需要多少天才能达到 100 万美元？数学如下：</blockquote> <ul> <li>10 shares at DPO = 4,000 days (about 11 years)</li> <li>100 shares at DPO = 3,000 days (about 8 years)</li> <li>1,000 shares at DPO = 2,000 days (about 5.5 years)</li> <li>10,000 shares at DPO = 1,000 days (about 2.5 years)</li> </ul> Of course, this is mostly absurd. Getting 150% returns per year is outlandish and it would have required buying right at the DPO for $10 per share. Plus, you'd need to keep getting 150% per year. Also, it would require zero selling. And, much more. Although this is all fun, it's unrealistic for most investors.<blockquote><ul><li>10 股 DPO = 4,000 天（约 11 年）</li><li>DPO 时 100 股 = 3,000 天（约 8 年）</li><li>1,000 股 DPO = 2,000 天（约 5.5 年）</li><li>10,000股DPO=1,000天（约2.5年）</li></ul>当然，这大多是荒谬的。每年获得 150% 的回报率是古怪的，而且需要在 DPO 以每股 10 美元的价格购买。另外，你需要继续每年获得150%。此外，它需要零销售。还有更多。虽然这一切都很有趣，但对大多数投资者来说这是不现实的。</blockquote> So, the first big point is that even starting with a lot of money and lot of shares,very few investors are hitting $1 million with PLTR right now. And, even with robust assumptions, it'll take many more years to hit the big goal. Therefore, patience is required. There's no way around the math.<blockquote>所以，第一个要点是，即使一开始有很多钱和很多股票，目前很少有投资者通过 PLTR 达到 100 万美元.而且，即使有可靠的假设，实现这个大目标也需要很多年的时间。因此，需要耐心。没有办法绕过数学。</blockquote> More Reasonable Assumptions<blockquote>更合理的假设</blockquote> For a moment, let's review one basic ratio.<blockquote>让我们回顾一下一个基本比率。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03d62686c7b3057066e9993cc4c676c3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Squinting a bit, you can see that PLTR's average price-to-sales ratio is about 28. Next, here are several more mature software companies, plus PayPal(NASDAQ:PYPL), CrowdStrike(NASDAQ:CRWD)and Snowflake(NYSE:SNOW)for a bit of fun, and added perspective.<blockquote>稍微眯起眼睛，可以看到PLTR的平均市销率约为28。接下来，这里有几家更成熟的软件公司，加上PayPal（纳斯达克股票代码：PYPL）、CrowdStrike（纳斯达克股票代码：CRWD）和雪花（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SNOW），以获得一点乐趣并增加视角。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b5712325a7823b3bfb18b559201dbcc\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"535\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Not surprisingly, SNOW still has a much higher P/S ratio than PLTR. That's been the case for a while. And, CRWD is quite a bit higher. Then, naturally, all the older and bigger software companies I've shown here have significantly lower P/S ratios.Maturity acts like gravity, pulling P/S down.<blockquote>毫不奇怪，SNOW 的市盈率仍然比 PLTR 高得多。这种情况已经持续了一段时间。而且，CRWD要高得多。然后，很自然地，我在这里展示的所有老牌和大型软件公司的市盈率都明显较低。成熟度就像重力一样，拉低市盈率。</blockquote> However, with PLTR, I could easily see the P/S hold around 28 for the next several years as long as strong growth is maintained. In fact, we could see the P/S grow upwards to 40-50, or perhaps higher. On the other hand, it could drop down into the 18-22 range. Of course, anything is possible but I'm trying to establish some guardrails.<blockquote>然而，有了PLTR，只要保持强劲增长，我很容易看到未来几年市盈率保持在28左右。事实上，我们可以看到市盈率上升到40-50，甚至更高。另一方面，它可能会下降到18-22的范围。当然，一切皆有可能，但我正试图建立一些护栏。</blockquote> Here's why this matters:<blockquote>这就是为什么这很重要：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1c90ea898fbbebcb6c5d7e728153db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: PLTR Q2 Earnings Slides<blockquote>资料来源：PLTR 第二季度收益幻灯片</blockquote> If revenue growth holds at 30% and price holds with respect to those sales, as the ratios indicate at this point, then we can do a bit of extrapolation. In other words, assuming 30% share price increases year over year isn't too crazy. Here's how that looks, assuming we start with a price of $25 right now:<blockquote>如果收入增长保持在30%，价格相对于这些销售保持不变，正如此时的比率所示，那么我们可以做一点推断。换句话说，假设股价同比上涨30%并不算太疯狂。假设我们现在从 25 美元的价格开始，情况如下：</blockquote> <ul> <li>2022 = $32.50</li> <li>2023 = $42.25</li> <li>2024 = $54.93</li> <li>2025 = $71.40</li> </ul> But, here's the rub. I think that maybe PLTR is sandbagging. I wrote an article all about this with a&nbsp;ton of interesting proof.<blockquote><ul><li>2022=$32.50</li><li>2023=$42.25</li><li>2024=$54.93</li><li>2025=$71.40</li></ul>但是，问题来了。我想也许PLTR是沙袋。我写了一篇关于这个的文章，里面有一大堆有趣的证据。</blockquote> In fact, 40% growth might also be too conservative, and according to my projections, PLTR is actually quite capable of 50% CAGR through 2025. For reference:Palantir Is Sandbagging Growth Projections.<blockquote>事实上，40%的增长也可能过于保守，根据我的预测，到2025年，PLTR实际上完全有能力实现50%的CAGR。供参考：Palantir 正在沙袋增长预测。</blockquote> Now, stick with me. Because at this point, we're moving from 30%, to a much higher set of numbers.<blockquote>现在，跟着我。因为在这一点上，我们正在从30%走向一个更高的数字。</blockquote> Follow The Math<blockquote>遵循数学</blockquote> I ran some numbers back in that article back in June 2021 when PLTR was trading a little bit lower, at $24. Here are those projections:<blockquote>我在 2021 年 6 月的那篇文章中回顾了一些数字，当时 PLTR 的交易价格略低，为 24 美元。以下是这些预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>2022 = $34 (40% growth)</li> <li>2023 = $47 (40% growth)</li> <li>2024 = $66 (40% growth)</li> <li>2025 = $92 (40% growth)</li> </ul> Then...<blockquote><ul><li>2022 年 = 34 美元（增长 40%）</li><li>2023 年 = 47 美元（增长 40%）</li><li>2024 年 = 66 美元（增长 40%）</li><li>2025 年 = 92 美元（增长 40%）</li></ul>然后……...</blockquote> <ul> <li>2022 = $36 (50% growth)</li> <li>2023 = $54 (50% growth)</li> <li>2024 = $81 (50% growth)</li> <li>2025 = $122 (50% growth)</li> </ul> Again, for reference:Palantir Is Sandbagging Growth Projections. The math tells us that if PLTR is expecting $4 billion in revenue by 2025, then it's got to grow way above 30%. So,going way above $100 is perfectly rational.<blockquote><ul><li>2022 年 = 36 美元（增长 50%）</li><li>2023 年 = 54 美元（增长 50%）</li><li>2024 年 = 81 美元（增长 50%）</li><li>2025 年 = 122 美元（增长 50%）</li></ul>再次供参考：Palantir 正在对增长预测进行打包。数学告诉我们，如果 PLTR 预计到 2025 年收入将达到 40 亿美元，那么它的增长率必须远远超过 30%。所以，远高于100美元是完全合理的。</blockquote> Therefore, in 2025, being a PLTR millionaire would require just under 11,000 shares assuming 40% growth and hitting $92. Being a PLTR millionaire would require about 8,200 shares assuming 50% growth and hitting $122 per share.<blockquote>因此，到 2025 年，假设增长 40% 并达到 92 美元，成为 PLTR 百万富翁只需要不到 11,000 股股票。假设增长 50% 并达到每股 122 美元，成为 PLTR 百万富翁需要大约 8,200 股股票。</blockquote> Getting your hands on 11,000 shares right now at $26 would set you back $286K and 8,200 shares would cost you about $213K. Roughly speaking, you'd need $200-300K of PLTR, depending on your assumptions, and then how things actually work out.<blockquote>现在以 26 美元的价格购买 11,000 股股票将花费您 28.6 万美元，而 8,200 股股票将花费您约 21.3 万美元。粗略地说，你需要200-30万美元的PLTR，这取决于你的假设，以及事情的实际结果。</blockquote> Obviously, you can run your own numbers for your own portfolio from this point. The frameworks are simple, but clear. While I don't expect any kind of smooth growth from here, I do expect tremendous and growing strength over the coming 3-5 years, let alone the next 8-10 years.<blockquote>显然，从这一点开始，您可以为自己的投资组合运行自己的数字。这些框架很简单，但很清晰。虽然我不指望这里会有任何平稳的增长，但我确实预计在未来3-5年，更不用说未来8-10年了，会有巨大的增长实力。</blockquote> With a substantial \"down payment\" becoming a PLTR millionaire isn't impossible, but that's not exact the point. Instead, it's to consider the tremendous growth in PLTR itself, but also the share price along the way. Even a modest amount of PLTR could turn into a handsome pile; thank you, growth.<blockquote>有了一大笔“首付”，成为PLTR百万富翁并非不可能，但这并不是重点。相反，要考虑PLTR本身的巨大增长，还要考虑一路上的股价。即使是适量的PLTR也可以变成一堆漂亮的东西；谢谢你，成长。</blockquote> Is Leverage Worth It?<blockquote>杠杆值得吗？</blockquote> Maybe we could use options to&nbsp;exploit leverage:<blockquote>也许我们可以使用选项来利用杠杆：</blockquote> Options can provide leverage. This means an option buyer can pay a relatively small premium for market exposure in relation to the contract value (usually 100 shares of the underlying stock). An investor can see large percentage gains from comparatively small, favorable percentage moves in the underlying product. Just remember the key risk if you're buying options:<blockquote>期权可以提供杠杆。这意味着期权买方可以为相对于合约价值（通常是 100 股标的股票）的市场敞口支付相对较小的溢价。投资者可以从基础产品相对较小、有利的百分比变动中看到较大的百分比收益。如果您购买期权，请记住关键风险：</blockquote> Leverage also has downside implications. If the underlying stock price does not rise or fall as anticipated during the lifetime of the option, leverage could magnify the investment's percentage loss. Options offer their owners a predetermined, set risk. However, if the owner's options expire with no value, this loss can be the entire amount of the premium paid for the option. [Emphasis: Author's] And, depending on your belief or \"faith\" in PLTR's growth, you could use long dated options or \"LEAPS\" to become wealthy with PLTR.<blockquote>杠杆也有负面影响。如果标的股票价格在期权有效期内没有按预期上涨或下跌，杠杆可能会放大投资的百分比损失。期权为其所有者提供了预定的、设定的风险。但是，如果所有者的期权到期时没有价值，则该损失可能是为期权支付的全部权利金.[强调：作者]而且，根据您对 PLTR 增长的信念或“信念”，您可以使用长期以来的选择或“飞跃”通过 PLTR 致富。</blockquote> For example, we can easily go out all the way to early 2024:<blockquote>例如，我们可以轻松地一路走到 2024 年初：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd29dee567adf170dd52396e1525bf0\" tg-width=\"397\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade<blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券</blockquote> Assuming you could buy PLTR LEAPs for $4.75 with a strike price of $40, then you could potentially do quite well if PLTR's growth numbers play out.<blockquote>假设您可以以 4.75 美元的价格购买 PLTR LEAPs，执行价格为 40 美元，那么如果 PLTR 的增长数据发挥作用，您可能会做得很好。</blockquote> With 40% share price growth, PLTR would hit $47 by the end of 2023. And, with 50% growth, PLTR would hit $54 by the end of 2023.<blockquote>随着股价增长 40%，PLTR 到 2023 年底将达到 47 美元。而且，随着 50% 的增长，到 2023 年底，PLTR 将达到 54 美元。</blockquote> At a glance that sounds good,but it's not fantastic. I don't even really have to run the numbers because at a glance you can see that you'd maybe 2x to 3x your money invested right now using PLTR LEAPS with a $40 strike.<blockquote>乍一看不错，但这并不奇妙.我甚至不需要真正运行数字，因为一眼就能看出，使用 40 美元的 PLTR LEAPS，您现在投资的资金可能会增加 2 到 3 倍。</blockquote> Instead, maybe we'd want to look more closely at the $27 strike, for example:<blockquote>相反，也许我们想更仔细地研究一下 27 美元的行情，例如：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca9ccabc791d1c116f6cda58e4dcf606\" tg-width=\"397\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade<blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券</blockquote> At this point, assuming $8 for each PLTR Jan 2024 LEAP with a $27 strike, we're looking at $12 assuming gains per LEAP with 40% growth. Furthermore, we're look at about $19 gains per LEAP with 50% growth.<blockquote>此时，假设 2024 年 1 月 PLTR 每次上涨 8 美元，执行价格为 27 美元，那么假设每次上涨的收益为 40%，我们预计将达到 12 美元。此外，我们预计每次跳跃收益约为 19 美元，增长率为 50%。</blockquote> To be clear, what I'm doing is adding the $8 LEAP cost and the $27 strike price. That's $35. Then, I'm taking $47 which assumes 40% growth, and subtracting to get the difference, which is $12. And, I'm taking the $54 which assumes 50% growth, and subtracting the same way to get $19. Nothing too fancy here, and no complicated math. Either way,it falls short again.<blockquote>需要明确的是，我所做的是加上 8 美元的跳跃成本和 27 美元的执行价格。那是35美元。然后，我取47美元，假设增长40%，减去差额，即12美元。而且，我取54美元，假设增长50%，用同样的方法减去19美元。这里没有太花哨的东西，也没有复杂的数学。不管怎样，又不够了.</blockquote> Putting $8 in maybe gets us 1.5x to 2.5x returns in about 2 years. Of course, it could be more like 3x, or even maybe a bit higher. However, buying and holding is likely to generate similar gains,with less risk.<blockquote>投入 8 美元可能会在大约 2 年内获得 1.5 倍至 2.5 倍的回报。当然，它可能更像3倍，甚至可能更高一点。然而，买入和持有可能产生类似的收益，风险较小.</blockquote> The message is this. The options market is smart, and forward looking. And, in this case, it's basically letting us know that PLTR's growth is likely to be in the 40-50% range, as I've explained above. The deeper lesson is to have patience with PLTR common equity. The growth is there and leverage won't accelerate gains without adding too much risk.<blockquote>信息是这样的。期权市场是聪明且具有前瞻性的。而且，在这种情况下，它基本上让我们知道 PLTR 的增长可能在 40-50% 范围内，正如我上面解释的那样。更深层次的教训是对 PLTR 普通股要有耐心。增长是存在的，杠杆不会在不增加太多风险的情况下加速收益。</blockquote> At this point in time, I'm not investing in PLTR LEAPS. Buying and holding, with strong growth tailwinds is plenty good enough for most investors. Or, at a minimum, buying PLTR and holding is good enough for my portfolio.<blockquote>目前，我不会投资 PLTR LEAPS。对于大多数投资者来说，强劲的增长顺风买入并持有已经足够好了。或者，至少，购买 PLTR 并持有对于我的投资组合来说已经足够好了。</blockquote> Wrap Up<blockquote>包装</blockquote> First, I looked at PLTR's early growth from $10 to $25 or so today. I'm not expecting 150% gains every year, however. That's far too greedy and besides, the uncertainty around PLTR is slowly fading, thereby stabilizing things quite a bit. In part, this is what's holding PLTR in the $22 to $28 range, I believe. The burn off of uncertainty has built a floor, or trading zone. I'm confident this floor will move upwards in 2022.<blockquote>首先，我看了 PLTR 从 10 美元到今天 25 美元左右的早期增长情况。然而，我预计每年不会有 150% 的涨幅。这太贪婪了，而且，PLTR 周围的不确定性正在慢慢消退，从而稳定了局势。我相信，在某种程度上，这就是 PLTR 维持在 22 至 28 美元区间的原因。不确定性的燃烧已经建立了一个底部或交易区。我相信这层楼会在2022年上升。</blockquote> Second, I reviewed PLTR's growth assumptions once again, showing how 30% growth per year is too probably too modest. Instead, it's looking like we'll see more like 40-50% per year for the next 3-5 years. Furthermore, assuming there's not a collapse in the P/S ratio, investors could enjoy 40-50% capital gains per year, although it might be quite lumpy along the way. If this is true, then hitting $90 to $120 in 2025 is rational.<blockquote>其次，我再次回顾了 PLTR 的增长假设，表明每年 30% 的增长可能过于温和。相反，看起来在接下来的3-5年里，我们每年会看到40-50%的增长。此外，假设市盈率没有崩溃，投资者每年可以享受40-50%的资本收益，尽管一路上可能会相当不稳定。如果这是真的，那么2025年达到90美元到120美元是合理的。</blockquote> As a quick sidebar, I can see PLTR hitting somewhere between $65 to $85 by the end of 2023, along the way. If PLTR can show concrete growth, and if they can taper&nbsp;stock-based compensation, this seems quite plausible.<blockquote>作为一个快速侧栏，我可以看到 PLTR 到 2023 年底将达到 65 美元至 85 美元之间。如果PLTR能够显示出具体的增长，并且如果他们能够逐步减少基于股票的薪酬，这似乎是相当合理的。</blockquote> Third, I've used long-dated options and some rough math to show that using leverage on PLTR in the market probably isn't going to greatly accelerate gains over 2-3 years. However, even it does work out, the risk to capital goes up. While there are some times where options work well, e.g.,selling PLTR puts, using LEAPS right now doesn't look favorable enough. Better to buy and hold, in most cases.<blockquote>第三，我使用了长期期权和一些粗略的数学计算来表明，在市场上使用 PLTR 的杠杆可能不会在 2-3 年内大幅加速收益。然而，即使成功了，资本风险也会上升。虽然有时期权效果很好，例如出售 PLTR 看跌期权，但现在使用 LEAPS 看起来不够有利。在大多数情况下，最好买入并持有。</blockquote> As another sidebar, I enjoyed looking at PLTR LEAPS, which gives investors some added confidence in PLTR's growth over the next 2-3 years. The options market is rather intelligent as a wisdom of the crowds prediction model. I'm seeing an optimistic \"thumbs up\" right now.Growth Stock Renegadesubscribers got an extra special view of this phenomenon, I might add.<blockquote>作为另一个侧边栏，我喜欢关注 PLTR LEAPS，这让投资者对 PLTR 未来 2-3 年的增长更有信心。期权市场是相当聪明的人群预测模型。我现在看到了一个乐观的“竖起大拇指”。成长股叛徒我可以补充一点，订户对这种现象有了额外的特殊看法。</blockquote> And lastly, as a fun exercise, I've shown that you'd likely need 8,000 to 12,000 shares, and 40-50% CAGR on those shares, to reach $1 million. That would require setting aside $200-300K, and waiting patiently until 2025. Maybe that's acceptable, and maybe not, but at least you have a framework now to understand the potential. That's the real point.<blockquote>最后，作为一个有趣的练习，我已经表明，你可能需要8,000到12,000股股票，以及这些股票40-50%的CAGR，才能达到100万美元。这需要拨出 20-30 万美元，并耐心等到 2025 年。也许这是可以接受的，也许不是，但至少你现在有一个框架来理解潜力。这才是真正的重点。</blockquote> Obviously, you can take all of this data plus the growth rates and come to your own conclusions. What I know is that my confidence in PLTR is still quite high and I continue to maintain my bullish position.<blockquote>显然，你可以把所有这些数据加上增长率，得出自己的结论。我所知道的是，我对PLTR的信心仍然相当高，我继续维持看涨立场。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464239-palantir-what-growth-could-mean-for-price-in-2025-and-beyond\">SeekingAlpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4464239-palantir-what-growth-could-mean-for-price-in-2025-and-beyond","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117726029","content_text":"Summary\n\nFirst, I look at PLTR's early growth from $10 to $25 or so today.\nSecond, I review PLTR's growth assumptions once again showing how 30% growth per year is probably too modest.\nThird, I show how leverage on PLTR using long-dated options probably isn't going to greatly accelerate investor gains over the next 2-3 years.\nFourth, I explain how many shares are needed right now to reach $1 million in PLTR stock by the end of 2025, given rational growth models.\n\nKevinHyde/iStock via Getty Images\nBackground\nIt's very simple really. What's growth really mean for Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)investors in 2022, 2023, 2024 and beyond? This is more difficult to answer than it might appear on the surface but all will be revealed.\nHere's how the article will play out.\n\nFirst, I look at PLTR's early growth from $10 to $25 or so today. I don't expect the same year-over-year growth, but PLTR investors today could still do very well.\nSecond, I review PLTR's growth assumptions once again showing how 30% growth per year is too probably too modest. I still believe PLTR is sandbagging.\nThird, I show how leverage on PLTR using long-dated options probably isn't going to greatly accelerate investor gains over the next 2-3 years. That's not to say options are bad, but LEAPS don't look sexy here.\nLastly, I explain how many shares are needed right now to reach $1 million in PLTR stock by the end of 2025, given rational growth models. This is not \"get rich quick\" at all, but instead it's meant to be an intriguing way to frame future growth for any investor.\n\nPast Performance Won't Get You There\nLet's start with a basic approach. Here's how PLTR looks thus far:\n\nIn one year, PLTR has gone up 155% going from $10 on September 30th, 2020 through $25.88 on October 29th, 2021. (I'm seeing $26.47 right now.)\nAlthough I don't expect similar results going forward, we can roughly estimate how things would look. It's been about 400 days since PLTR's DPO. Therefore, very grossly speaking, PLTR is gaining about 0.23% per day compounded. I did that fast, and very back-of-napkin, but it's still fun and interesting, if not ridiculous. Here's how things would look now if you bought at the DPO:\n\n10 shares at DPO for $100 = $250\n100 shares at DPO for $1,000 = $2,500\n1,000 shares at DPO for $10,000 = $25,000\n10,000 shares at DPO for $100,000 = $250,000\n\nIn other words, even with $100K invested you would not yet be a PLTR millionaire. How many more days at 0.23% would it take to reach $1 million in PLTR stock in this case? Here's the math:\n\n10 shares at DPO = 4,000 days (about 11 years)\n100 shares at DPO = 3,000 days (about 8 years)\n1,000 shares at DPO = 2,000 days (about 5.5 years)\n10,000 shares at DPO = 1,000 days (about 2.5 years)\n\nOf course, this is mostly absurd. Getting 150% returns per year is outlandish and it would have required buying right at the DPO for $10 per share. Plus, you'd need to keep getting 150% per year. Also, it would require zero selling. And, much more. Although this is all fun, it's unrealistic for most investors.\nSo, the first big point is that even starting with a lot of money and lot of shares,very few investors are hitting $1 million with PLTR right now. And, even with robust assumptions, it'll take many more years to hit the big goal. Therefore, patience is required. There's no way around the math.\nMore Reasonable Assumptions\nFor a moment, let's review one basic ratio.\n\nSquinting a bit, you can see that PLTR's average price-to-sales ratio is about 28. Next, here are several more mature software companies, plus PayPal(NASDAQ:PYPL), CrowdStrike(NASDAQ:CRWD)and Snowflake(NYSE:SNOW)for a bit of fun, and added perspective.\n\nNot surprisingly, SNOW still has a much higher P/S ratio than PLTR. That's been the case for a while. And, CRWD is quite a bit higher. Then, naturally, all the older and bigger software companies I've shown here have significantly lower P/S ratios.Maturity acts like gravity, pulling P/S down.\nHowever, with PLTR, I could easily see the P/S hold around 28 for the next several years as long as strong growth is maintained. In fact, we could see the P/S grow upwards to 40-50, or perhaps higher. On the other hand, it could drop down into the 18-22 range. Of course, anything is possible but I'm trying to establish some guardrails.\nHere's why this matters:\nSource: PLTR Q2 Earnings Slides\nIf revenue growth holds at 30% and price holds with respect to those sales, as the ratios indicate at this point, then we can do a bit of extrapolation. In other words, assuming 30% share price increases year over year isn't too crazy. Here's how that looks, assuming we start with a price of $25 right now:\n\n2022 = $32.50\n2023 = $42.25\n2024 = $54.93\n2025 = $71.40\n\nBut, here's the rub. I think that maybe PLTR is sandbagging. I wrote an article all about this with a ton of interesting proof.\nIn fact, 40% growth might also be too conservative, and according to my projections, PLTR is actually quite capable of 50% CAGR through 2025. For reference:Palantir Is Sandbagging Growth Projections.\nNow, stick with me. Because at this point, we're moving from 30%, to a much higher set of numbers.\nFollow The Math\nI ran some numbers back in that article back in June 2021 when PLTR was trading a little bit lower, at $24. Here are those projections:\n\n2022 = $34 (40% growth)\n2023 = $47 (40% growth)\n2024 = $66 (40% growth)\n2025 = $92 (40% growth)\n\nThen...\n\n2022 = $36 (50% growth)\n2023 = $54 (50% growth)\n2024 = $81 (50% growth)\n2025 = $122 (50% growth)\n\nAgain, for reference:Palantir Is Sandbagging Growth Projections. The math tells us that if PLTR is expecting $4 billion in revenue by 2025, then it's got to grow way above 30%. So,going way above $100 is perfectly rational.\nTherefore, in 2025, being a PLTR millionaire would require just under 11,000 shares assuming 40% growth and hitting $92. Being a PLTR millionaire would require about 8,200 shares assuming 50% growth and hitting $122 per share.\nGetting your hands on 11,000 shares right now at $26 would set you back $286K and 8,200 shares would cost you about $213K. Roughly speaking, you'd need $200-300K of PLTR, depending on your assumptions, and then how things actually work out.\nObviously, you can run your own numbers for your own portfolio from this point. The frameworks are simple, but clear. While I don't expect any kind of smooth growth from here, I do expect tremendous and growing strength over the coming 3-5 years, let alone the next 8-10 years.\nWith a substantial \"down payment\" becoming a PLTR millionaire isn't impossible, but that's not exact the point. Instead, it's to consider the tremendous growth in PLTR itself, but also the share price along the way. Even a modest amount of PLTR could turn into a handsome pile; thank you, growth.\nIs Leverage Worth It?\nMaybe we could use options to exploit leverage:\n\n Options can provide leverage. This means an option buyer can pay a relatively small premium for market exposure in relation to the contract value (usually 100 shares of the underlying stock). An investor can see large percentage gains from comparatively small, favorable percentage moves in the underlying product.\n\nJust remember the key risk if you're buying options:\n\n Leverage also has downside implications. If the underlying stock price does not rise or fall as anticipated during the lifetime of the option, leverage could magnify the investment's percentage loss. Options offer their owners a predetermined, set risk.\n However, if the owner's options expire with no value, this loss can be the entire amount of the premium paid for the option. [Emphasis: Author's]\n\nAnd, depending on your belief or \"faith\" in PLTR's growth, you could use long dated options or \"LEAPS\" to become wealthy with PLTR.\nFor example, we can easily go out all the way to early 2024:\nSource: TD Ameritrade\nAssuming you could buy PLTR LEAPs for $4.75 with a strike price of $40, then you could potentially do quite well if PLTR's growth numbers play out.\nWith 40% share price growth, PLTR would hit $47 by the end of 2023. And, with 50% growth, PLTR would hit $54 by the end of 2023.\nAt a glance that sounds good,but it's not fantastic. I don't even really have to run the numbers because at a glance you can see that you'd maybe 2x to 3x your money invested right now using PLTR LEAPS with a $40 strike.\nInstead, maybe we'd want to look more closely at the $27 strike, for example:\nSource: TD Ameritrade\nAt this point, assuming $8 for each PLTR Jan 2024 LEAP with a $27 strike, we're looking at $12 assuming gains per LEAP with 40% growth. Furthermore, we're look at about $19 gains per LEAP with 50% growth.\nTo be clear, what I'm doing is adding the $8 LEAP cost and the $27 strike price. That's $35. Then, I'm taking $47 which assumes 40% growth, and subtracting to get the difference, which is $12. And, I'm taking the $54 which assumes 50% growth, and subtracting the same way to get $19. Nothing too fancy here, and no complicated math. Either way,it falls short again.\nPutting $8 in maybe gets us 1.5x to 2.5x returns in about 2 years. Of course, it could be more like 3x, or even maybe a bit higher. However, buying and holding is likely to generate similar gains,with less risk.\nThe message is this. The options market is smart, and forward looking. And, in this case, it's basically letting us know that PLTR's growth is likely to be in the 40-50% range, as I've explained above. The deeper lesson is to have patience with PLTR common equity. The growth is there and leverage won't accelerate gains without adding too much risk.\nAt this point in time, I'm not investing in PLTR LEAPS. Buying and holding, with strong growth tailwinds is plenty good enough for most investors. Or, at a minimum, buying PLTR and holding is good enough for my portfolio.\nWrap Up\nFirst, I looked at PLTR's early growth from $10 to $25 or so today. I'm not expecting 150% gains every year, however. That's far too greedy and besides, the uncertainty around PLTR is slowly fading, thereby stabilizing things quite a bit. In part, this is what's holding PLTR in the $22 to $28 range, I believe. The burn off of uncertainty has built a floor, or trading zone. I'm confident this floor will move upwards in 2022.\nSecond, I reviewed PLTR's growth assumptions once again, showing how 30% growth per year is too probably too modest. Instead, it's looking like we'll see more like 40-50% per year for the next 3-5 years. Furthermore, assuming there's not a collapse in the P/S ratio, investors could enjoy 40-50% capital gains per year, although it might be quite lumpy along the way. If this is true, then hitting $90 to $120 in 2025 is rational.\nAs a quick sidebar, I can see PLTR hitting somewhere between $65 to $85 by the end of 2023, along the way. If PLTR can show concrete growth, and if they can taper stock-based compensation, this seems quite plausible.\nThird, I've used long-dated options and some rough math to show that using leverage on PLTR in the market probably isn't going to greatly accelerate gains over 2-3 years. However, even it does work out, the risk to capital goes up. While there are some times where options work well, e.g.,selling PLTR puts, using LEAPS right now doesn't look favorable enough. Better to buy and hold, in most cases.\nAs another sidebar, I enjoyed looking at PLTR LEAPS, which gives investors some added confidence in PLTR's growth over the next 2-3 years. The options market is rather intelligent as a wisdom of the crowds prediction model. I'm seeing an optimistic \"thumbs up\" right now.Growth Stock Renegadesubscribers got an extra special view of this phenomenon, I might add.\nAnd lastly, as a fun exercise, I've shown that you'd likely need 8,000 to 12,000 shares, and 40-50% CAGR on those shares, to reach $1 million. That would require setting aside $200-300K, and waiting patiently until 2025. Maybe that's acceptable, and maybe not, but at least you have a framework now to understand the potential. That's the real point.\nObviously, you can take all of this data plus the growth rates and come to your own conclusions. What I know is that my confidence in PLTR is still quite high and I continue to maintain my bullish position.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2830,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":36,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/841059296"}