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2021-10-31

oh dear, time to exit my trades until January 2022

Top Wall Street Strategist Sees a Fast 10% Q4 Correction Coming<blockquote>华尔街顶级策略师预计第四季度将出现10%的快速调整</blockquote>

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KYHBKO
2021-10-31
KYHBKO
如果你的投资很好，没有必要匆忙退出基本原理

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Most investors a","content":"A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors are well aware of the FAANG stocks, which are the massive tech monsters that rule the market. In addition, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the acronyms used to describe the constant rise in the stock markets, especially when the “buy the dip” crowd takes control after sizable selling, is FOMO, or fear of missing out.<blockquote>在金融界，大量的首字母缩略词用于各种各样的项目。大多数投资者都很清楚FAANG股票，它们是统治市场的大型科技巨头。此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>FOMO是用来描述股市持续上涨的首字母缩略词之一，尤其是当“逢低买入”人群在大量抛售后控制局面时。</blockquote> One of the very newest acronyms to hit the market speak lexicon is TINA. That stands for “there is no alternative,” which is an explanation for the constant ascent of the stock market. Basically what it means is that, due to very low yields on bonds and cash, especially with mounting inflation, owning stocks (especially those that pay solid and predictable dividends) is the only way to stay ahead of the game.<blockquote>TINA是最新进入市场词汇的首字母缩略词之一。这代表“别无选择”，这是对股市不断上涨的解释。基本上，这意味着，由于债券和现金的收益率非常低，特别是在通货膨胀加剧的情况下，持有股票（尤其是那些支付稳定且可预测股息的股票）是保持领先地位的唯一途径。</blockquote> If any one equity strategist across Wall Street has been right on the money over the past few years, it is Stifel’s head of Institutional Equity Strategy, Barry Bannister, and he is advising clients that we could be poised to have a TINA trap sell-off. We have covered his outstanding and prescient calls for years, and generally when he talks, we listen. Those who did so at the height of the sell-off in 2020 posted some massive gains.<blockquote>如果说过去几年华尔街有哪一位股票策略师是正确的，那就是Stifel的机构股票策略主管巴里·班尼斯特(Barry Bannister)，他向客户建议，我们可能会遭遇TINA陷阱抛售。多年来，我们一直在报道他杰出而有先见之明的评级，通常当他讲话时，我们会倾听。那些在2020年抛售最严重的时候这样做的人取得了一些巨大的收益。</blockquote> On March 19, 2020, just four short days before the final surge of selling and investor capitulation on March 23, Bannister and his team dropped a prediction for a relief rally that would carry the S&amp;P 500 to the 2,750 level by April 30. On March 23, the index hit an intraday low of 2,191, and it closed at 2,237.<blockquote>2020年3月19日，就在3月23日抛售和投资者投降最后激增的短短四天前，班尼斯特和他的团队放弃了对缓解性反弹的预测，该反弹将使标普500在4月30日之前升至2,750点。3月23日，该指数盘中最低触及2191点，收盘于2237点。</blockquote> We covered that incredibly bold prediction then, and while some were very skeptical of the call, Bannister made the prerequisite financial media rounds at the time giving his firm’s rationale for the prediction. In early April of 2020 as a surge of alarming news on the COVID-19 pandemic flooded the airwaves, Stifel came out and defended the call, telling clients to stand their ground. In the middle of April, as the rest of Wall Street was finally on board, Stifel raised the end-of-April target to 2,950. On April 30, in line with the laser-like call from Stifel, the S&amp;P 500 closed at 2,912 after hitting an intraday high of 2,930 and after trading to 2,950 level the day before. In late May of 2020, Stifel once again raised the price target on the S&amp;P 500 to 3,250 by August 30.<blockquote>我们当时报道了这一令人难以置信的大胆预测，虽然有些人对看涨期权非常怀疑，但班尼斯特当时在金融媒体上发表了先决条件，给出了他的公司做出这一预测的理由。2020年4月初，随着有关COVID-19大流行的令人震惊的消息充斥电视广播，Stifel站出来为看涨期权辩护，告诉客户坚持自己的立场。4月中旬，随着华尔街其他人终于加入进来，Stifel将4月底的目标上调至2,950点。4月30日，与Stifel激光般的看涨期权一致，标普500在触及2930点的盘中高点并在前一天交易至2950点后收于2912点。2020年5月下旬，Stifel再次将标普500的目标价上调至8月30日的3,250点。</blockquote> Once again, Bannister sees storm clouds on the horizon, and with good reason. Everything from stocks to gold, Treasury debt and oil and have been pushed higher. This is a result of a unique combination of the FOMO worries and the TINA mentality. In a new research report, Bannister and his team feel that a lightning-fast 10% correction could occur in the remaining months of the fourth quarter. The report noted this:<blockquote>班尼斯特又一次看到了地平线上的乌云，这是有充分理由的。从股票到黄金、国债和石油，一切都被推高。这是FOMO担忧和TINA心态独特结合的结果。在一份新的研究报告中，班尼斯特和他的团队认为，第四季度剩余几个月可能会出现闪电般的10%修正。报告指出：</blockquote> Near-term in the fourth quarter of 2021, we note that equal-weighted cyclicals vs. defensives are very near the point at which P/E-driven S&amp;P 500 corrections occur, and we see downside equating to the S&amp;P 500 falling from 4,535 currently to ~4,000 (prior view 3,800), around a 10% correction in the fourth quarter as we see mid-cycle risks. Our target and concerns are based on slowing global liquidity and tighter financial conditions with a gradual but unwavering Fed exit (especially after the Fed Chair is named). Sure, the Fed-inflated TINA trade “There is No Alternative” (to stocks) exists, but everyone goes into the boxing ring “with a plan” to buy-the-dip…until they get hit with a double-digit correction. Looking out to mid-2022 through 2025, we observe that value vs. growth tracks the S&amp;P 500 divided by commodity index ratio, which soared in 2020 (favored growth stocks), fell in 2021 (favors value) and may bounce in mid-2022 (after the S&amp;P 500 corrects) favoring growth, post-dip. We also show that despite the Quantitative Easing taper the S&amp;P 500 could hit 5,200 by Jun-2022 (TINA’s last gasp?). Moreover, we see no actual bear market, which would be a 20% or more decline until fed funds is 1% (4 rate hikes), which fed funds futures indicate does not occur until 2024. <blockquote>近期在2021年第四季度，我们注意到等权重周期性股票与防御性股票非常接近市盈率驱动的标普500修正发生的点，我们认为下行相当于标普500从目前的4,535点下跌至约4,000点（之前的观点为3,800点），由于我们看到了中期周期风险，第四季度的修正约为10%。我们的目标和担忧基于全球流动性放缓和金融状况收紧，美联储将逐步但坚定不移地退出（尤其是在美联储主席任命之后）。当然，美联储膨胀的TINA交易“别无选择”（股票）是存在的，但每个人都“带着一个计划”进入拳击场，以逢低买入……直到他们受到两位数的修正。展望2022年中期至2025年，我们观察到价值与增长遵循标普500除以大宗商品指数比率，该比率在2020年飙升（青睐成长股），在2021年下跌（青睐价值股），并可能在2022年中期反弹（标普500修正后）有利于增长，下跌后。我们还表明，尽管量化宽松缩减，到2022年6月，标普500仍可能达到5,200（TINA的最后一口气？）.此外，我们没有看到真正的熊市，在联邦基金利率达到1%（加息4次）之前，熊市将下跌20%或更多，联邦基金期货表明这种情况要到2024年才会发生。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1620372341666","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top Wall Street Strategist Sees a Fast 10% Q4 Correction Coming<blockquote>华尔街顶级策略师预计第四季度将出现10%的快速调整</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop Wall Street Strategist Sees a Fast 10% Q4 Correction Coming<blockquote>华尔街顶级策略师预计第四季度将出现10%的快速调整</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n24/7 wall street2021-10-30 15:32\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors are well aware of the FAANG stocks, which are the massive tech monsters that rule the market. In addition, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the acronyms used to describe the constant rise in the stock markets, especially when the “buy the dip” crowd takes control after sizable selling, is FOMO, or fear of missing out.<blockquote>在金融界，大量的首字母缩略词用于各种各样的项目。大多数投资者都很清楚FAANG股票，它们是统治市场的大型科技巨头。此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>FOMO是用来描述股市持续上涨的首字母缩略词之一，尤其是当“逢低买入”人群在大量抛售后控制局面时。</blockquote> One of the very newest acronyms to hit the market speak lexicon is TINA. That stands for “there is no alternative,” which is an explanation for the constant ascent of the stock market. Basically what it means is that, due to very low yields on bonds and cash, especially with mounting inflation, owning stocks (especially those that pay solid and predictable dividends) is the only way to stay ahead of the game.<blockquote>TINA是最新进入市场词汇的首字母缩略词之一。这代表“别无选择”，这是对股市不断上涨的解释。基本上，这意味着，由于债券和现金的收益率非常低，特别是在通货膨胀加剧的情况下，持有股票（尤其是那些支付稳定且可预测股息的股票）是保持领先地位的唯一途径。</blockquote> If any one equity strategist across Wall Street has been right on the money over the past few years, it is Stifel’s head of Institutional Equity Strategy, Barry Bannister, and he is advising clients that we could be poised to have a TINA trap sell-off. We have covered his outstanding and prescient calls for years, and generally when he talks, we listen. Those who did so at the height of the sell-off in 2020 posted some massive gains.<blockquote>如果说过去几年华尔街有哪一位股票策略师是正确的，那就是Stifel的机构股票策略主管巴里·班尼斯特(Barry Bannister)，他向客户建议，我们可能会遭遇TINA陷阱抛售。多年来，我们一直在报道他杰出而有先见之明的评级，通常当他讲话时，我们会倾听。那些在2020年抛售最严重的时候这样做的人取得了一些巨大的收益。</blockquote> On March 19, 2020, just four short days before the final surge of selling and investor capitulation on March 23, Bannister and his team dropped a prediction for a relief rally that would carry the S&amp;P 500 to the 2,750 level by April 30. On March 23, the index hit an intraday low of 2,191, and it closed at 2,237.<blockquote>2020年3月19日，就在3月23日抛售和投资者投降最后激增的短短四天前，班尼斯特和他的团队放弃了对缓解性反弹的预测，该反弹将使标普500在4月30日之前升至2,750点。3月23日，该指数盘中最低触及2191点，收盘于2237点。</blockquote> We covered that incredibly bold prediction then, and while some were very skeptical of the call, Bannister made the prerequisite financial media rounds at the time giving his firm’s rationale for the prediction. In early April of 2020 as a surge of alarming news on the COVID-19 pandemic flooded the airwaves, Stifel came out and defended the call, telling clients to stand their ground. In the middle of April, as the rest of Wall Street was finally on board, Stifel raised the end-of-April target to 2,950. On April 30, in line with the laser-like call from Stifel, the S&amp;P 500 closed at 2,912 after hitting an intraday high of 2,930 and after trading to 2,950 level the day before. In late May of 2020, Stifel once again raised the price target on the S&amp;P 500 to 3,250 by August 30.<blockquote>我们当时报道了这一令人难以置信的大胆预测，虽然有些人对看涨期权非常怀疑，但班尼斯特当时在金融媒体上发表了先决条件，给出了他的公司做出这一预测的理由。2020年4月初，随着有关COVID-19大流行的令人震惊的消息充斥电视广播，Stifel站出来为看涨期权辩护，告诉客户坚持自己的立场。4月中旬，随着华尔街其他人终于加入进来，Stifel将4月底的目标上调至2,950点。4月30日，与Stifel激光般的看涨期权一致，标普500在触及2930点的盘中高点并在前一天交易至2950点后收于2912点。2020年5月下旬，Stifel再次将标普500的目标价上调至8月30日的3,250点。</blockquote> Once again, Bannister sees storm clouds on the horizon, and with good reason. Everything from stocks to gold, Treasury debt and oil and have been pushed higher. This is a result of a unique combination of the FOMO worries and the TINA mentality. In a new research report, Bannister and his team feel that a lightning-fast 10% correction could occur in the remaining months of the fourth quarter. The report noted this:<blockquote>班尼斯特又一次看到了地平线上的乌云，这是有充分理由的。从股票到黄金、国债和石油，一切都被推高。这是FOMO担忧和TINA心态独特结合的结果。在一份新的研究报告中，班尼斯特和他的团队认为，第四季度剩余几个月可能会出现闪电般的10%修正。报告指出：</blockquote> Near-term in the fourth quarter of 2021, we note that equal-weighted cyclicals vs. defensives are very near the point at which P/E-driven S&amp;P 500 corrections occur, and we see downside equating to the S&amp;P 500 falling from 4,535 currently to ~4,000 (prior view 3,800), around a 10% correction in the fourth quarter as we see mid-cycle risks. Our target and concerns are based on slowing global liquidity and tighter financial conditions with a gradual but unwavering Fed exit (especially after the Fed Chair is named). Sure, the Fed-inflated TINA trade “There is No Alternative” (to stocks) exists, but everyone goes into the boxing ring “with a plan” to buy-the-dip…until they get hit with a double-digit correction. Looking out to mid-2022 through 2025, we observe that value vs. growth tracks the S&amp;P 500 divided by commodity index ratio, which soared in 2020 (favored growth stocks), fell in 2021 (favors value) and may bounce in mid-2022 (after the S&amp;P 500 corrects) favoring growth, post-dip. We also show that despite the Quantitative Easing taper the S&amp;P 500 could hit 5,200 by Jun-2022 (TINA’s last gasp?). Moreover, we see no actual bear market, which would be a 20% or more decline until fed funds is 1% (4 rate hikes), which fed funds futures indicate does not occur until 2024. <blockquote>近期在2021年第四季度，我们注意到等权重周期性股票与防御性股票非常接近市盈率驱动的标普500修正发生的点，我们认为下行相当于标普500从目前的4,535点下跌至约4,000点（之前的观点为3,800点），由于我们看到了中期周期风险，第四季度的修正约为10%。我们的目标和担忧基于全球流动性放缓和金融状况收紧，美联储将逐步但坚定不移地退出（尤其是在美联储主席任命之后）。当然，美联储膨胀的TINA交易“别无选择”（股票）是存在的，但每个人都“带着一个计划”进入拳击场，以逢低买入……直到他们受到两位数的修正。展望2022年中期至2025年，我们观察到价值与增长遵循标普500除以大宗商品指数比率，该比率在2020年飙升（青睐成长股），在2021年下跌（青睐价值股），并可能在2022年中期反弹（标普500修正后）有利于增长，下跌后。我们还表明，尽管量化宽松缩减，到2022年6月，标普500仍可能达到5,200（TINA的最后一口气？）.此外，我们没有看到真正的熊市，在联邦基金利率达到1%（加息4次）之前，熊市将下跌20%或更多，联邦基金期货表明这种情况要到2024年才会发生。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://247wallst.com/investing/2021/10/29/top-wall-street-strategist-sees-a-fast-10-q4-correction-coming/\">24/7 wall street</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://247wallst.com/investing/2021/10/29/top-wall-street-strategist-sees-a-fast-10-q4-correction-coming/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130019043","content_text":"A plethora of acronyms are used in the financial world for a wide variety of items. Most investors are well aware of the FAANG stocks, which are the massive tech monsters that rule the market. In addition, one of the acronyms used to describe the constant rise in the stock markets, especially when the “buy the dip” crowd takes control after sizable selling, is FOMO, or fear of missing out.\nOne of the very newest acronyms to hit the market speak lexicon is TINA. That stands for “there is no alternative,” which is an explanation for the constant ascent of the stock market. Basically what it means is that, due to very low yields on bonds and cash, especially with mounting inflation, owning stocks (especially those that pay solid and predictable dividends) is the only way to stay ahead of the game.\nIf any one equity strategist across Wall Street has been right on the money over the past few years, it is Stifel’s head of Institutional Equity Strategy, Barry Bannister, and he is advising clients that we could be poised to have a TINA trap sell-off. We have covered his outstanding and prescient calls for years, and generally when he talks, we listen. Those who did so at the height of the sell-off in 2020 posted some massive gains.\nOn March 19, 2020, just four short days before the final surge of selling and investor capitulation on March 23, Bannister and his team dropped a prediction for a relief rally that would carry the S&P 500 to the 2,750 level by April 30. On March 23, the index hit an intraday low of 2,191, and it closed at 2,237.\nWe covered that incredibly bold prediction then, and while some were very skeptical of the call, Bannister made the prerequisite financial media rounds at the time giving his firm’s rationale for the prediction. In early April of 2020 as a surge of alarming news on the COVID-19 pandemic flooded the airwaves, Stifel came out and defended the call, telling clients to stand their ground. In the middle of April, as the rest of Wall Street was finally on board, Stifel raised the end-of-April target to 2,950. On April 30, in line with the laser-like call from Stifel, the S&P 500 closed at 2,912 after hitting an intraday high of 2,930 and after trading to 2,950 level the day before. In late May of 2020, Stifel once again raised the price target on the S&P 500 to 3,250 by August 30.\nOnce again, Bannister sees storm clouds on the horizon, and with good reason. Everything from stocks to gold, Treasury debt and oil and have been pushed higher. This is a result of a unique combination of the FOMO worries and the TINA mentality. In a new research report, Bannister and his team feel that a lightning-fast 10% correction could occur in the remaining months of the fourth quarter. The report noted this:\n\n Near-term in the fourth quarter of 2021, we note that equal-weighted cyclicals vs. defensives are very near the point at which P/E-driven S&P 500 corrections occur, and we see downside equating to the S&P 500 falling from 4,535 currently to ~4,000 (prior view 3,800), around a 10% correction in the fourth quarter as we see mid-cycle risks.\n\n\n Our target and concerns are based on slowing global liquidity and tighter financial conditions with a gradual but unwavering Fed exit (especially after the Fed Chair is named). Sure, the Fed-inflated TINA trade “There is No Alternative” (to stocks) exists, but everyone goes into the boxing ring “with a plan” to buy-the-dip…until they get hit with a double-digit correction.\n\n\n Looking out to mid-2022 through 2025, we observe that value vs. growth tracks the S&P 500 divided by commodity index ratio, which soared in 2020 (favored growth stocks), fell in 2021 (favors value) and may bounce in mid-2022 (after the S&P 500 corrects) favoring growth, post-dip. We also show that despite the Quantitative Easing taper the S&P 500 could hit 5,200 by Jun-2022 (TINA’s last gasp?). Moreover, we see no actual bear market, which would be a 20% or more decline until fed funds is 1% (4 rate hikes), which fed funds futures indicate does not occur until 2024.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":878,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":41,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":6390008,"commentId":"6390008","gmtCreate":1635634799805,"gmtModify":1635634799805,"authorId":3574381076586256,"author":{"id":3574381076586256,"idStr":"3574381076586256","authorId":3574381076586256,"name":"KYHBKO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3bcbc7f9a10836dea92afc94bf39b5b","vip":2,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":840833520,"objectIdStr":"840833520","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"如果你的投资很好，没有必要匆忙退出基本原理","text":"如果你的投资很好，没有必要匆忙退出基本原理","html":"如果你的投资很好，没有必要匆忙退出基本原理","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/840833520"}