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2021-08-16

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Fed Officials Weigh Ending Asset Purchases by Mid-2022<blockquote>美联储官员考虑在 2022 年中期结束资产购买</blockquote>

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Federal Reserve officials are nearing agreement to begin scaling back their easy money policies in about three months if the economic recovery continues, with some pushing to end their asset-purchase program by the middle of next year.<blockquote>如果通胀居高不下、失业率迅速下降，尽快减少债券购买可以为加息提供更大的灵活性。如果经济复苏持续，美联储官员即将同意在大约三个月内开始缩减宽松货币政策，一些官员正在推动在明年年中结束资产购买计划。</blockquote> In recent interviews and public statements, several have advocated for this timetable, which would enable them to raise interest rates sooner than currently anticipated if the economy makes rapid progress toward their goals.<blockquote>在最近的采访和公开声明中，一些人主张这一时间表，如果经济在实现其目标方面取得快速进展，这将使他们能够比目前预期的更早加息。</blockquote> The central bank last December said it would continue the current pace of bond purchases until officials concluded they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of 2% average inflation and robust employment.<blockquote>央行去年 12 月表示，将继续保持目前的债券购买速度，直到官员们得出结论，他们在实现平均通胀率 2% 和强劲就业的目标方面取得了 “实质性的进一步进展”。</blockquote> Officials at their July 27-28 meetingdeliberated on two important questions: when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them. The Fed is set to release on Wednesday minutes of the meeting that could provide further clues about those discussions.<blockquote>官员们在 7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议上讨论了两个重要问题：何时开始削减每月购买的 800 亿美元国债和 400 亿美元抵押贷款证券，以及如何快速减少或缩减这些资产。美联储将于周三公布会议纪要，这可能会提供有关这些讨论的进一步线索。</blockquote> The answers are important to financial markets because Fed officials have said they would prefer to conclude the bond-buying program before considering when to raise interest rates from near-zero. At their June 15-16 policy meeting, 13 of 18 Fed officials projected they would raise rates by the end of 2023; seven expected to do so by the end of 2022.<blockquote>这些答案对金融市场很重要，因为美联储官员表示，他们宁愿在考虑何时从接近于零的利率上调之前结束债券购买计划。在 6 月 15 日至 16 日的政策会议上，18 名美联储官员中有 13 名预计将在 2023 年底前加息；预计到 2022 年底将有 7 家这样做。</blockquote> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a July 28 news conference that the Fed was still “a ways away from considering raising interest rates. It’s not something that is on our radar screen right now.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在 7 月 28 日的新闻发布会上表示，美联储 “距离考虑加息还有一段路要走。这不是我们现在考虑的事情”。</blockquote> A recent run ofstrong hiring reportshave strengthened the case for the Fed to announce at its next meeting, Sept. 21-22, its intentions to start tapering, potentially as soon as its following meeting in November.<blockquote>最近一系列强劲的招聘报告加强了美联储在 9 月 21 日至 22 日的下次会议上宣布打算开始缩减规模的理由，可能最早在 11 月的下次会议上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf5a9a0b2244055076f521102b5b4a\" tg-width=\"317\" tg-height=\"412\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">“I do expect we are going to be at the point where we’ve seen substantial further progress…probably later this year,” said Chicago Fed President Charles Evans in avirtual roundtable with reporterslast week.<blockquote>“芝加哥联储主席查尔斯-埃文斯（Charles Evans）上周在与记者的虚拟圆桌会议上说：”我确实预计，我们将看到实质性的进一步进展.可能在今年晚些时候。</blockquote> Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said in an interview he expected to see by the Sept. 21-22 meeting enough job growth to meet the criteria for reducing bond purchases. “That would set up some time this fall a possible tapering that is dependent on the Delta variant and other variants not slowing down the labor market substantially,” he said in an interview last week. Mr. Rosengren said he hopes that if strong economic growth continues, “we’re done with the tapering program…towards the middle of next year.”<blockquote>波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦在接受采访时表示，他预计到 9 月 21 日至 22 日将看到足够的就业增长，以满足减少债券购买的标准。“他在上周接受采访时说：”这将为今年秋季某个时候可能的缩减开工奠定基础，这取决于德尔塔变异毒株和其他不会大幅减缓劳动力市场的变数。罗森格伦先生说，他希望如果经济继续强劲增长，“我们将在明年年中完成缩减计划”。</blockquote> The Fed wound down its previous bond-buying program very gradually, reducing its purchases over the course of 10 months. But in December 2013, when it announced that it would soon start that process, the economy was weaker, with higher unemployment and low inflation.<blockquote>美联储非常逐步地结束了之前的债券购买计划，在 10 个月内减少了购买量。但在2013年12月，当它宣布将很快启动这一进程时，经济更加疲软，失业率更高，通货膨胀率更低。</blockquote> Officials had another reason for caution back then because they were stunned by a surge in long-term Treasury yields, dubbed the “taper tantrum,” that occurred in the middle of 2013, after then-Chair Ben Bernanke suggested they might soon reduce their asset purchases.<blockquote>当时的官员们还有另一个谨慎的理由，因为他们对 2013 年年中发生的长期国债收益率飙升感到震惊，当时时任主席本-伯南克（Ben Bernanke）暗示他们可能很快就会减少资产购买。</blockquote> The Fed now finds itself in a very different position. The economy is growing rapidly. Unemployment is much lower, at 5.4% in July.Inflation is much hotter. And bond yields have tumbled this year even as the central bank has discussed plans to reduce bond purchases.<blockquote>美联储现在发现自己处于一个非常不同的位置。经济正在快速增长。失业率要低得多，7 月份为 5.4%。通货膨胀要高得多。尽管央行讨论了减少债券购买的计划，但今年债券收益率仍大幅下降。</blockquote> The asset purchases aim to stimulate the economy by holding down long-term interest rates to spur borrowing and spending. Mr. Rosengren pointed to recentsurges in home pricesas evidence that the program may be nearing a point of diminishing returns. “If you can’t get housing materials and you can’t get construction workers to come back on site, but we do increase demand for housing, then it doesn’t do much for our employment mandate—but it does increase housing prices more than it otherwise would,” he said.<blockquote>资产购买旨在通过压低长期利率来刺激借贷和支出来刺激经济。罗森格伦指出，最近房价飙升证明该计划可能正接近回报递减的临界点。“他说：”如果你得不到住房材料，也得不到建筑工人重返工地，但我们确实增加了住房需求，那么这对我们的就业任务并没有多大帮助，但它确实比其他情况下提高了房价。</blockquote> Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan agreed. “These purchases are very well designed to stimulate demand, but we don’t have a demand problem,” he said in an interview. “In the aftermath of the Great Recession, we did. So I don’t want to use the playbook from 2009 to 2013.”<blockquote>达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰对此表示同意。“他在接受采访时说：”这些采购旨在刺激需求，但我们没有需求问题。“在大衰退之后，我们做到了。因此，我不想沿用 2009 年至 2013 年的剧本。”</blockquote> Some other officials have argued for more patience. Fed governor Lael Brainard indicated last month she wanted to see September hiring data, which won’t be available until early October, before deciding. That would hold off any tapering until no sooner than the Fed’s Nov. 2-3 meeting.<blockquote>其他一些官员主张更有耐心。美联储理事莱尔-布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）上个月表示，她希望看到9月份的招聘数据，而9月份的招聘数据要到10月初才能公布，然后再做决定。这将使任何缩减规模都推迟到美联储 11 月 2 日至 3 日的会议。</blockquote> San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in an interview last week she thinks the economy should support “beginning to taper later this year, or maybe next.” Labor markets are “really strong—getting stronger,” she said.<blockquote>旧金山联储主席玛丽-戴利（Mary Daly）上周在接受采访时表示，她认为经济应该支持 “今年晚些时候，或者明年开始缩减规模”。她说，劳动力市场 “非常强劲，而且越来越强劲”。</blockquote> Ms. Daly said it was too soon to say how the Fed should reduce the purchases. “Those things haven’t been decided,” she said.<blockquote>戴利表示，现在说美联储应该如何减少购买量还为时过早。“她说：”这些事情还没有决定。</blockquote> Likewise, Mr. Evans didn’t say how soon he thought the Fed would need to wind down its purchases. He expects inflation to fall back to 2% by the end of next year, which would argue for less urgency to withdraw monetary stimulus.<blockquote>同样，埃文斯先生也没有透露他认为美联储需要多久结束购买。他预计明年年底通胀率将回落至2%，这将证明撤回货币刺激的紧迫性有所降低。</blockquote> “My own outlook is, we’re gonna be more challenged in getting inflation to confidently stay up in the 2% or 2.1% or 2.2%” range, he said. “If others had more confidence that inflation was going to be higher on a sustainable basis, then that…quicker tapering could be the right path.”<blockquote>“他说：”我自己的展望是，我们将面临更大的挑战，要让通胀率自信地保持在 2%、2.1% 或 2.2% 的范围内。“如果其他人对通胀率会在可持续的基础上走高更有信心，那么.更快地缩减通胀率可能是正确的道路”。</blockquote> Fed officials have yet to decidewhether to reduce their purchasesof Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities at the same pace.<blockquote>美联储官员尚未决定是否以同样的速度减少对美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的购买。</blockquote> Mr. Rosengren said he would prefer to reduce them monthly by equal quantities. Because the Fed is buying twice as many Treasurys as mortgage-backed securities, that would result in mortgage-bond purchases ending in half the time as Treasury purchases.<blockquote>罗森格伦先生说，他更愿意每月减少等量的数量。由于美联储购买的国债数量是抵押贷款支持证券的两倍，这将导致抵押贷款债券购买的结束时间是国债购买的一半。</blockquote> Mr. Kaplan said he favors reducing the purchases of both types of bonds over the course of eight months, or by $10 billion for Treasurys and $5 billion for mortgage-backed securities a month. “That strikes me as the most prudent course: start soon, and go gradually, and for me, gradually means eight months,” he said.<blockquote>卡普兰表示，他赞成在八个月内减少购买这两种债券，即每月减少购买100亿美元的国债和50亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。“他说：”在我看来，这是最谨慎的做法：尽快开始，循序渐进，对我来说，循序渐进意味着八个月。</blockquote> St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he wants to start paring assets in October and conclude the program by March, reducing the purchases of Treasurys by $20 billion a month and mortgage bonds by $10 billion a month. Fed governor Christopher Waller has outlined a similar preference.<blockquote>圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德表示，他希望从10月份开始削减资产，并在3月份结束该计划，每月减少200亿美元的国债购买，每月减少100亿美元的抵押贷款债券购买。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒也概述了类似的偏好。</blockquote> Even though “that would be a fairly rapid pullout of the asset-purchase program,” Mr. Bullard said in an interview last week that he thought it would give the Fed more flexibility to determine whether to raise rates later next year. “I don’t want to have to move too rapidly [to raise rates] because it can be very disruptive, so I think that the pace I’m suggesting would give us a lot more optionality in 2022 if we needed to use it.”<blockquote>尽管 “这将是资产购买计划相当迅速的退出”，但布拉德先生在上周接受采访时表示，他认为这将使美联储有更大的灵活性来决定是否在明年晚些时候加息。“我不想采取太快的行动（提高利率），因为这可能会造成很大的破坏性，所以我认为，如果我们需要在 2022 年使用它，我建议的速度会给我们更多的选择。”</blockquote> Mr. Kaplan said by reducing asset purchases sooner, the Fed might be able to wait longer before it has to raise interest rates. “By getting a more appropriate stance of monetary policy now or soon, it might actually allow you to be more flexible and be more patient on how you adjust the federal-funds rate down the road,” he said.<blockquote>卡普兰表示，通过尽快减少资产购买，美联储可能能够在不得不加息之前等待更长时间。“他说：”通过现在或不久采取更合适的货币政策立场，实际上可能会让你在今后如何调整联邦基金利率方面更加灵活和耐心。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Officials Weigh Ending Asset Purchases by Mid-2022<blockquote>美联储官员考虑在 2022 年中期结束资产购买</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Officials Weigh Ending Asset Purchases by Mid-2022<blockquote>美联储官员考虑在 2022 年中期结束资产购买</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nThe Wall Street Journal2021-08-16 20:48\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Reducing bond buying sooner could provide more flexibility to raise interest rates if inflation stays high and unemployment falls rapidly. Federal Reserve officials are nearing agreement to begin scaling back their easy money policies in about three months if the economic recovery continues, with some pushing to end their asset-purchase program by the middle of next year.<blockquote>如果通胀居高不下、失业率迅速下降，尽快减少债券购买可以为加息提供更大的灵活性。如果经济复苏持续，美联储官员即将同意在大约三个月内开始缩减宽松货币政策，一些官员正在推动在明年年中结束资产购买计划。</blockquote> In recent interviews and public statements, several have advocated for this timetable, which would enable them to raise interest rates sooner than currently anticipated if the economy makes rapid progress toward their goals.<blockquote>在最近的采访和公开声明中，一些人主张这一时间表，如果经济在实现其目标方面取得快速进展，这将使他们能够比目前预期的更早加息。</blockquote> The central bank last December said it would continue the current pace of bond purchases until officials concluded they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of 2% average inflation and robust employment.<blockquote>央行去年 12 月表示，将继续保持目前的债券购买速度，直到官员们得出结论，他们在实现平均通胀率 2% 和强劲就业的目标方面取得了 “实质性的进一步进展”。</blockquote> Officials at their July 27-28 meetingdeliberated on two important questions: when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them. The Fed is set to release on Wednesday minutes of the meeting that could provide further clues about those discussions.<blockquote>官员们在 7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议上讨论了两个重要问题：何时开始削减每月购买的 800 亿美元国债和 400 亿美元抵押贷款证券，以及如何快速减少或缩减这些资产。美联储将于周三公布会议纪要，这可能会提供有关这些讨论的进一步线索。</blockquote> The answers are important to financial markets because Fed officials have said they would prefer to conclude the bond-buying program before considering when to raise interest rates from near-zero. At their June 15-16 policy meeting, 13 of 18 Fed officials projected they would raise rates by the end of 2023; seven expected to do so by the end of 2022.<blockquote>这些答案对金融市场很重要，因为美联储官员表示，他们宁愿在考虑何时从接近于零的利率上调之前结束债券购买计划。在 6 月 15 日至 16 日的政策会议上，18 名美联储官员中有 13 名预计将在 2023 年底前加息；预计到 2022 年底将有 7 家这样做。</blockquote> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a July 28 news conference that the Fed was still “a ways away from considering raising interest rates. It’s not something that is on our radar screen right now.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在 7 月 28 日的新闻发布会上表示，美联储 “距离考虑加息还有一段路要走。这不是我们现在考虑的事情”。</blockquote> A recent run ofstrong hiring reportshave strengthened the case for the Fed to announce at its next meeting, Sept. 21-22, its intentions to start tapering, potentially as soon as its following meeting in November.<blockquote>最近一系列强劲的招聘报告加强了美联储在 9 月 21 日至 22 日的下次会议上宣布打算开始缩减规模的理由，可能最早在 11 月的下次会议上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf5a9a0b2244055076f521102b5b4a\" tg-width=\"317\" tg-height=\"412\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">“I do expect we are going to be at the point where we’ve seen substantial further progress…probably later this year,” said Chicago Fed President Charles Evans in avirtual roundtable with reporterslast week.<blockquote>“芝加哥联储主席查尔斯-埃文斯（Charles Evans）上周在与记者的虚拟圆桌会议上说：”我确实预计，我们将看到实质性的进一步进展.可能在今年晚些时候。</blockquote> Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said in an interview he expected to see by the Sept. 21-22 meeting enough job growth to meet the criteria for reducing bond purchases. “That would set up some time this fall a possible tapering that is dependent on the Delta variant and other variants not slowing down the labor market substantially,” he said in an interview last week. Mr. Rosengren said he hopes that if strong economic growth continues, “we’re done with the tapering program…towards the middle of next year.”<blockquote>波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦在接受采访时表示，他预计到 9 月 21 日至 22 日将看到足够的就业增长，以满足减少债券购买的标准。“他在上周接受采访时说：”这将为今年秋季某个时候可能的缩减开工奠定基础，这取决于德尔塔变异毒株和其他不会大幅减缓劳动力市场的变数。罗森格伦先生说，他希望如果经济继续强劲增长，“我们将在明年年中完成缩减计划”。</blockquote> The Fed wound down its previous bond-buying program very gradually, reducing its purchases over the course of 10 months. But in December 2013, when it announced that it would soon start that process, the economy was weaker, with higher unemployment and low inflation.<blockquote>美联储非常逐步地结束了之前的债券购买计划，在 10 个月内减少了购买量。但在2013年12月，当它宣布将很快启动这一进程时，经济更加疲软，失业率更高，通货膨胀率更低。</blockquote> Officials had another reason for caution back then because they were stunned by a surge in long-term Treasury yields, dubbed the “taper tantrum,” that occurred in the middle of 2013, after then-Chair Ben Bernanke suggested they might soon reduce their asset purchases.<blockquote>当时的官员们还有另一个谨慎的理由，因为他们对 2013 年年中发生的长期国债收益率飙升感到震惊，当时时任主席本-伯南克（Ben Bernanke）暗示他们可能很快就会减少资产购买。</blockquote> The Fed now finds itself in a very different position. The economy is growing rapidly. Unemployment is much lower, at 5.4% in July.Inflation is much hotter. And bond yields have tumbled this year even as the central bank has discussed plans to reduce bond purchases.<blockquote>美联储现在发现自己处于一个非常不同的位置。经济正在快速增长。失业率要低得多，7 月份为 5.4%。通货膨胀要高得多。尽管央行讨论了减少债券购买的计划，但今年债券收益率仍大幅下降。</blockquote> The asset purchases aim to stimulate the economy by holding down long-term interest rates to spur borrowing and spending. Mr. Rosengren pointed to recentsurges in home pricesas evidence that the program may be nearing a point of diminishing returns. “If you can’t get housing materials and you can’t get construction workers to come back on site, but we do increase demand for housing, then it doesn’t do much for our employment mandate—but it does increase housing prices more than it otherwise would,” he said.<blockquote>资产购买旨在通过压低长期利率来刺激借贷和支出来刺激经济。罗森格伦指出，最近房价飙升证明该计划可能正接近回报递减的临界点。“他说：”如果你得不到住房材料，也得不到建筑工人重返工地，但我们确实增加了住房需求，那么这对我们的就业任务并没有多大帮助，但它确实比其他情况下提高了房价。</blockquote> Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan agreed. “These purchases are very well designed to stimulate demand, but we don’t have a demand problem,” he said in an interview. “In the aftermath of the Great Recession, we did. So I don’t want to use the playbook from 2009 to 2013.”<blockquote>达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰对此表示同意。“他在接受采访时说：”这些采购旨在刺激需求，但我们没有需求问题。“在大衰退之后，我们做到了。因此，我不想沿用 2009 年至 2013 年的剧本。”</blockquote> Some other officials have argued for more patience. Fed governor Lael Brainard indicated last month she wanted to see September hiring data, which won’t be available until early October, before deciding. That would hold off any tapering until no sooner than the Fed’s Nov. 2-3 meeting.<blockquote>其他一些官员主张更有耐心。美联储理事莱尔-布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）上个月表示，她希望看到9月份的招聘数据，而9月份的招聘数据要到10月初才能公布，然后再做决定。这将使任何缩减规模都推迟到美联储 11 月 2 日至 3 日的会议。</blockquote> San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in an interview last week she thinks the economy should support “beginning to taper later this year, or maybe next.” Labor markets are “really strong—getting stronger,” she said.<blockquote>旧金山联储主席玛丽-戴利（Mary Daly）上周在接受采访时表示，她认为经济应该支持 “今年晚些时候，或者明年开始缩减规模”。她说，劳动力市场 “非常强劲，而且越来越强劲”。</blockquote> Ms. Daly said it was too soon to say how the Fed should reduce the purchases. “Those things haven’t been decided,” she said.<blockquote>戴利表示，现在说美联储应该如何减少购买量还为时过早。“她说：”这些事情还没有决定。</blockquote> Likewise, Mr. Evans didn’t say how soon he thought the Fed would need to wind down its purchases. He expects inflation to fall back to 2% by the end of next year, which would argue for less urgency to withdraw monetary stimulus.<blockquote>同样，埃文斯先生也没有透露他认为美联储需要多久结束购买。他预计明年年底通胀率将回落至2%，这将证明撤回货币刺激的紧迫性有所降低。</blockquote> “My own outlook is, we’re gonna be more challenged in getting inflation to confidently stay up in the 2% or 2.1% or 2.2%” range, he said. “If others had more confidence that inflation was going to be higher on a sustainable basis, then that…quicker tapering could be the right path.”<blockquote>“他说：”我自己的展望是，我们将面临更大的挑战，要让通胀率自信地保持在 2%、2.1% 或 2.2% 的范围内。“如果其他人对通胀率会在可持续的基础上走高更有信心，那么.更快地缩减通胀率可能是正确的道路”。</blockquote> Fed officials have yet to decidewhether to reduce their purchasesof Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities at the same pace.<blockquote>美联储官员尚未决定是否以同样的速度减少对美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的购买。</blockquote> Mr. Rosengren said he would prefer to reduce them monthly by equal quantities. Because the Fed is buying twice as many Treasurys as mortgage-backed securities, that would result in mortgage-bond purchases ending in half the time as Treasury purchases.<blockquote>罗森格伦先生说，他更愿意每月减少等量的数量。由于美联储购买的国债数量是抵押贷款支持证券的两倍，这将导致抵押贷款债券购买的结束时间是国债购买的一半。</blockquote> Mr. Kaplan said he favors reducing the purchases of both types of bonds over the course of eight months, or by $10 billion for Treasurys and $5 billion for mortgage-backed securities a month. “That strikes me as the most prudent course: start soon, and go gradually, and for me, gradually means eight months,” he said.<blockquote>卡普兰表示，他赞成在八个月内减少购买这两种债券，即每月减少购买100亿美元的国债和50亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。“他说：”在我看来，这是最谨慎的做法：尽快开始，循序渐进，对我来说，循序渐进意味着八个月。</blockquote> St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he wants to start paring assets in October and conclude the program by March, reducing the purchases of Treasurys by $20 billion a month and mortgage bonds by $10 billion a month. Fed governor Christopher Waller has outlined a similar preference.<blockquote>圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德表示，他希望从10月份开始削减资产，并在3月份结束该计划，每月减少200亿美元的国债购买，每月减少100亿美元的抵押贷款债券购买。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒也概述了类似的偏好。</blockquote> Even though “that would be a fairly rapid pullout of the asset-purchase program,” Mr. Bullard said in an interview last week that he thought it would give the Fed more flexibility to determine whether to raise rates later next year. “I don’t want to have to move too rapidly [to raise rates] because it can be very disruptive, so I think that the pace I’m suggesting would give us a lot more optionality in 2022 if we needed to use it.”<blockquote>尽管 “这将是资产购买计划相当迅速的退出”，但布拉德先生在上周接受采访时表示，他认为这将使美联储有更大的灵活性来决定是否在明年晚些时候加息。“我不想采取太快的行动（提高利率），因为这可能会造成很大的破坏性，所以我认为，如果我们需要在 2022 年使用它，我建议的速度会给我们更多的选择。”</blockquote> Mr. Kaplan said by reducing asset purchases sooner, the Fed might be able to wait longer before it has to raise interest rates. “By getting a more appropriate stance of monetary policy now or soon, it might actually allow you to be more flexible and be more patient on how you adjust the federal-funds rate down the road,” he said.<blockquote>卡普兰表示，通过尽快减少资产购买，美联储可能能够在不得不加息之前等待更长时间。“他说：”通过现在或不久采取更合适的货币政策立场，实际上可能会让你在今后如何调整联邦基金利率方面更加灵活和耐心。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-officials-weigh-ending-asset-purchases-by-mid-2022-11629106200\">The Wall Street Journal</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-officials-weigh-ending-asset-purchases-by-mid-2022-11629106200","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165935172","content_text":"Reducing bond buying sooner could provide more flexibility to raise interest rates if inflation stays high and unemployment falls rapidly.\n\nFederal Reserve officials are nearing agreement to begin scaling back their easy money policies in about three months if the economic recovery continues, with some pushing to end their asset-purchase program by the middle of next year.\nIn recent interviews and public statements, several have advocated for this timetable, which would enable them to raise interest rates sooner than currently anticipated if the economy makes rapid progress toward their goals.\nThe central bank last December said it would continue the current pace of bond purchases until officials concluded they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of 2% average inflation and robust employment.\nOfficials at their July 27-28 meetingdeliberated on two important questions: when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them. The Fed is set to release on Wednesday minutes of the meeting that could provide further clues about those discussions.\nThe answers are important to financial markets because Fed officials have said they would prefer to conclude the bond-buying program before considering when to raise interest rates from near-zero. At their June 15-16 policy meeting, 13 of 18 Fed officials projected they would raise rates by the end of 2023; seven expected to do so by the end of 2022.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a July 28 news conference that the Fed was still “a ways away from considering raising interest rates. It’s not something that is on our radar screen right now.”\nA recent run ofstrong hiring reportshave strengthened the case for the Fed to announce at its next meeting, Sept. 21-22, its intentions to start tapering, potentially as soon as its following meeting in November.\n“I do expect we are going to be at the point where we’ve seen substantial further progress…probably later this year,” said Chicago Fed President Charles Evans in avirtual roundtable with reporterslast week.\nBoston Fed President Eric Rosengren said in an interview he expected to see by the Sept. 21-22 meeting enough job growth to meet the criteria for reducing bond purchases. “That would set up some time this fall a possible tapering that is dependent on the Delta variant and other variants not slowing down the labor market substantially,” he said in an interview last week. Mr. Rosengren said he hopes that if strong economic growth continues, “we’re done with the tapering program…towards the middle of next year.”\nThe Fed wound down its previous bond-buying program very gradually, reducing its purchases over the course of 10 months. But in December 2013, when it announced that it would soon start that process, the economy was weaker, with higher unemployment and low inflation.\nOfficials had another reason for caution back then because they were stunned by a surge in long-term Treasury yields, dubbed the “taper tantrum,” that occurred in the middle of 2013, after then-Chair Ben Bernanke suggested they might soon reduce their asset purchases.\nThe Fed now finds itself in a very different position. The economy is growing rapidly. Unemployment is much lower, at 5.4% in July.Inflation is much hotter. And bond yields have tumbled this year even as the central bank has discussed plans to reduce bond purchases.\nThe asset purchases aim to stimulate the economy by holding down long-term interest rates to spur borrowing and spending. Mr. Rosengren pointed to recentsurges in home pricesas evidence that the program may be nearing a point of diminishing returns. “If you can’t get housing materials and you can’t get construction workers to come back on site, but we do increase demand for housing, then it doesn’t do much for our employment mandate—but it does increase housing prices more than it otherwise would,” he said.\nDallas Fed President Robert Kaplan agreed. “These purchases are very well designed to stimulate demand, but we don’t have a demand problem,” he said in an interview. “In the aftermath of the Great Recession, we did. So I don’t want to use the playbook from 2009 to 2013.”\nSome other officials have argued for more patience. Fed governor Lael Brainard indicated last month she wanted to see September hiring data, which won’t be available until early October, before deciding. That would hold off any tapering until no sooner than the Fed’s Nov. 2-3 meeting.\nSan Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in an interview last week she thinks the economy should support “beginning to taper later this year, or maybe next.” Labor markets are “really strong—getting stronger,” she said.\nMs. Daly said it was too soon to say how the Fed should reduce the purchases. “Those things haven’t been decided,” she said.\nLikewise, Mr. Evans didn’t say how soon he thought the Fed would need to wind down its purchases. He expects inflation to fall back to 2% by the end of next year, which would argue for less urgency to withdraw monetary stimulus.\n“My own outlook is, we’re gonna be more challenged in getting inflation to confidently stay up in the 2% or 2.1% or 2.2%” range, he said. “If others had more confidence that inflation was going to be higher on a sustainable basis, then that…quicker tapering could be the right path.”\nFed officials have yet to decidewhether to reduce their purchasesof Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities at the same pace.\nMr. Rosengren said he would prefer to reduce them monthly by equal quantities. Because the Fed is buying twice as many Treasurys as mortgage-backed securities, that would result in mortgage-bond purchases ending in half the time as Treasury purchases.\nMr. Kaplan said he favors reducing the purchases of both types of bonds over the course of eight months, or by $10 billion for Treasurys and $5 billion for mortgage-backed securities a month. “That strikes me as the most prudent course: start soon, and go gradually, and for me, gradually means eight months,” he said.\nSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he wants to start paring assets in October and conclude the program by March, reducing the purchases of Treasurys by $20 billion a month and mortgage bonds by $10 billion a month. Fed governor Christopher Waller has outlined a similar preference.\nEven though “that would be a fairly rapid pullout of the asset-purchase program,” Mr. Bullard said in an interview last week that he thought it would give the Fed more flexibility to determine whether to raise rates later next year. “I don’t want to have to move too rapidly [to raise rates] because it can be very disruptive, so I think that the pace I’m suggesting would give us a lot more optionality in 2022 if we needed to use it.”\nMr. Kaplan said by reducing asset purchases sooner, the Fed might be able to wait longer before it has to raise interest rates. “By getting a more appropriate stance of monetary policy now or soon, it might actually allow you to be more flexible and be more patient on how you adjust the federal-funds rate down the road,” he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1489,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/839303503"}