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2021-08-17
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'Bubble-like behavior' unlikely to destabilize the stock market, but JPMorgan says value will prove a 'cushion' as yields rise<blockquote>“类似泡沫的行为”不太可能破坏股市稳定，但摩根大通表示，随着收益率上升，价值将成为“缓冲”</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":839288524,"tweetId":"839288524","gmtCreate":1629161311368,"gmtModify":1633686949162,"author":{"id":3586246426804465,"idStr":"3586246426804465","authorId":3586246426804465,"authorIdStr":"3586246426804465","name":"Frisbee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d1d7567b89f270a9a9c4d752dc00fa0","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":18,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>ok</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>ok</p></body></html>","text":"ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839288524","repostId":2160220098,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2160220098","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629159632,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2160220098?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 08:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Bubble-like behavior' unlikely to destabilize the stock market, but JPMorgan says value will prove a 'cushion' as yields rise<blockquote>“类似泡沫的行为”不太可能破坏股市稳定，但摩根大通表示，随着收益率上升，价值将成为“缓冲”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2160220098","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'We continue to believe that bond yields are too low,' say JPMorgan strategists\nA JPMorgan poll of c","content":"<p>'We continue to believe that bond yields are too low,' say JPMorgan strategists</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，我们仍然认为债券收益率太低</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7180fc01ce33a5924bb391b44e7627bf\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"678\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A JPMorgan poll of clients found that almost half expect the S&P 500 to rise to 4,600 by the end of this year.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根大通对客户的调查发现，近一半的客户预计标普500到今年年底将升至4,600家。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Bond yields and cyclical bets in equities probably bottomed this month and are on their way up for the rest of 2021, with rising rates and pockets of \"bubble-like behavior\" unlikely to destabilize the stock market , according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. report.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase&Co.)表示，债券收益率和股市周期性押注可能在本月触底，并在2021年剩余时间内上升，利率上升和一些“泡沫状行为”不太可能破坏股市稳定。报告。</blockquote></p><p> The bank's market strategists said in a note Monday that they remain bullish on stocks despite \"upward pressure on yields\" and \"mini 'bubble' areas such as SPACs sentiment, but the indexes remained near record highs.</p><p><blockquote>该行市场策略师周一在一份报告中表示，尽管“收益率面临上行压力”和“SPAC情绪等迷你‘泡沫’领域”，但他们仍看好股市，但指数仍接近历史高位。</blockquote></p><p> \"Moderately higher yields shouldn't challenge equity valuations,\" the JPMorgan strategists said in the report. \"Our preference for value stocks would provide a cushion as they would likely outperform in a rising yield environment.\"</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通策略师在报告中表示：“适度较高的收益率不应挑战股票估值。”“我们对价值股的偏好将提供缓冲，因为它们可能会在收益率上升的环境中跑赢大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> A poll of JPMorgan clients last week found that 48% of investors expect the S&P 500 to rise to 4,600 at the end of this year, with 26% expecting the index to be trading at 4,400, the report shows. The index closed up 0.3% Monday at around 4,479.</p><p><blockquote>报告显示，上周对摩根大通客户的一项民意调查发现，48%的投资者预计标普500将在今年年底升至4600点，26%的投资者预计该指数将在4400点交投。该指数周一收盘上涨0.3%，至4,479点左右。</blockquote></p><p> As for bonds, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note , which closed as low as 1.17% in early August, was trading around 1.26% on Monday afternoon. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.</p><p><blockquote>债券方面，8月初收低至1.17%的10年期国债收益率周一下午交投于1.26%左右。债券收益率和价格走势相反。</blockquote></p><p> \"We continue to believe that bond yields are too low and recommend aggressive bond underweights and value equity overweights in our trade recommendations,\" the JPMorgan analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师表示：“我们仍然认为债券收益率太低，并在交易建议中建议大幅减持债券并增持价值股。”</blockquote></p><p> They estimated that yields of the \"Global Agg\" bond index could rise nearly 0.50 percentage points this year amid a deterioration in the global balance between demand and supply.</p><p><blockquote>他们估计，在全球供需平衡恶化的情况下，“全球Agg”债券指数的收益率今年可能会上升近0.50个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> While \"mechanically higher real yields would shrink the equity risk premium,\" they wrote that \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> needs to factor in large real yield increases of more than 100bp from current levels to start becoming concerned about equity valuations.\"</p><p><blockquote>虽然“机械上更高的实际收益率会缩小股票风险溢价”，但他们写道“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>需要考虑实际收益率较当前水平大幅上涨超过100个基点，才能开始关注股票估值。”</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, value stocks, as measured by the Russell 1000 Value index, have also risen from this month's closing low in early August, FactSet data show. The gauge was up by less than 0.1% Monday afternoon, while the Russell 1000 Growth index was up 0.2% on the day.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，FactSet数据显示，以罗素1000价值指数衡量的价值股也从8月初的本月收盘低点上涨。该指数周一下午上涨不到0.1%，而罗素1000增长指数当天上涨0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> The JPMorgan strategists said they are particularly bullish on cyclicals and value stocks, partly because of the strong earnings that companies have reported for the second quarter as well as \"signs of receding risk from the delta variant\" of the coronavirus in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，他们特别看好周期性股票和价值股，部分原因是企业公布的第二季度盈利强劲，以及美国冠状病毒“德尔塔变异毒株风险消退的迹象”。</blockquote></p><p> \"On the COVID-19 delta variant we have argued that low mortality in vaccinated countries should help investors look through this--likely last--wave,\" they wrote. \"It appears that investors are waiting for the inflection in U.S. cases, and we believe this is days away.\"</p><p><blockquote>他们写道：“在COVID-19德尔塔变异毒株上，我们认为接种疫苗国家的低死亡率应该有助于投资者度过这一波（可能是最后一波）。”“投资者似乎正在等待美国病例的拐点，我们认为这还需要几天的时间。”</blockquote></p><p> While the strategists view the delta wave as an \"overstated risk,\" they expect an \"amplification of geopolitical and political risks\" next year, according to the report.</p><p><blockquote>报告称，虽然策略师认为三角洲浪潮是一种“被夸大的风险”，但他们预计明年“地缘政治和政治风险将放大”。</blockquote></p><p> Other market concerns include sectors with \"bubble-like behavior,\" the JPMorgan strategists said, citing equities tied to COVID-19 lockdowns, renewable energy, electrical vehicles and crypto, as well as \"hypergrowth\" and innovation stocks.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，其他市场担忧包括具有“类似泡沫行为”的行业，他们引用了与COVID-19封锁、可再生能源、电动汽车和加密货币相关的股票，以及“高速增长”和创新股票。</blockquote></p><p> \"We believe that there will be another leg lower in sectors that exhibited bubble-like behavior since the onset of the pandemic,\" they said. \"But we don't think these segments are significant enough to destabilize the whole market.\"</p><p><blockquote>他们表示：“我们认为，自大流行爆发以来表现出泡沫行为的行业将再次走低。”“但我们认为这些细分市场的重要性不足以破坏整个市场的稳定。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'Bubble-like behavior' unlikely to destabilize the stock market, but JPMorgan says value will prove a 'cushion' as yields rise<blockquote>“类似泡沫的行为”不太可能破坏股市稳定，但摩根大通表示，随着收益率上升，价值将成为“缓冲”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Bubble-like behavior' unlikely to destabilize the stock market, but JPMorgan says value will prove a 'cushion' as yields rise<blockquote>“类似泡沫的行为”不太可能破坏股市稳定，但摩根大通表示，随着收益率上升，价值将成为“缓冲”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-17 08:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>'We continue to believe that bond yields are too low,' say JPMorgan strategists</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，我们仍然认为债券收益率太低</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7180fc01ce33a5924bb391b44e7627bf\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"678\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A JPMorgan poll of clients found that almost half expect the S&P 500 to rise to 4,600 by the end of this year.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根大通对客户的调查发现，近一半的客户预计标普500到今年年底将升至4,600家。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Bond yields and cyclical bets in equities probably bottomed this month and are on their way up for the rest of 2021, with rising rates and pockets of \"bubble-like behavior\" unlikely to destabilize the stock market , according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. report.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase&Co.)表示，债券收益率和股市周期性押注可能在本月触底，并在2021年剩余时间内上升，利率上升和一些“泡沫状行为”不太可能破坏股市稳定。报告。</blockquote></p><p> The bank's market strategists said in a note Monday that they remain bullish on stocks despite \"upward pressure on yields\" and \"mini 'bubble' areas such as SPACs sentiment, but the indexes remained near record highs.</p><p><blockquote>该行市场策略师周一在一份报告中表示，尽管“收益率面临上行压力”和“SPAC情绪等迷你‘泡沫’领域”，但他们仍看好股市，但指数仍接近历史高位。</blockquote></p><p> \"Moderately higher yields shouldn't challenge equity valuations,\" the JPMorgan strategists said in the report. \"Our preference for value stocks would provide a cushion as they would likely outperform in a rising yield environment.\"</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通策略师在报告中表示：“适度较高的收益率不应挑战股票估值。”“我们对价值股的偏好将提供缓冲，因为它们可能会在收益率上升的环境中跑赢大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> A poll of JPMorgan clients last week found that 48% of investors expect the S&P 500 to rise to 4,600 at the end of this year, with 26% expecting the index to be trading at 4,400, the report shows. The index closed up 0.3% Monday at around 4,479.</p><p><blockquote>报告显示，上周对摩根大通客户的一项民意调查发现，48%的投资者预计标普500将在今年年底升至4600点，26%的投资者预计该指数将在4400点交投。该指数周一收盘上涨0.3%，至4,479点左右。</blockquote></p><p> As for bonds, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note , which closed as low as 1.17% in early August, was trading around 1.26% on Monday afternoon. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.</p><p><blockquote>债券方面，8月初收低至1.17%的10年期国债收益率周一下午交投于1.26%左右。债券收益率和价格走势相反。</blockquote></p><p> \"We continue to believe that bond yields are too low and recommend aggressive bond underweights and value equity overweights in our trade recommendations,\" the JPMorgan analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师表示：“我们仍然认为债券收益率太低，并在交易建议中建议大幅减持债券并增持价值股。”</blockquote></p><p> They estimated that yields of the \"Global Agg\" bond index could rise nearly 0.50 percentage points this year amid a deterioration in the global balance between demand and supply.</p><p><blockquote>他们估计，在全球供需平衡恶化的情况下，“全球Agg”债券指数的收益率今年可能会上升近0.50个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> While \"mechanically higher real yields would shrink the equity risk premium,\" they wrote that \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> needs to factor in large real yield increases of more than 100bp from current levels to start becoming concerned about equity valuations.\"</p><p><blockquote>虽然“机械上更高的实际收益率会缩小股票风险溢价”，但他们写道“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>需要考虑实际收益率较当前水平大幅上涨超过100个基点，才能开始关注股票估值。”</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, value stocks, as measured by the Russell 1000 Value index, have also risen from this month's closing low in early August, FactSet data show. The gauge was up by less than 0.1% Monday afternoon, while the Russell 1000 Growth index was up 0.2% on the day.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，FactSet数据显示，以罗素1000价值指数衡量的价值股也从8月初的本月收盘低点上涨。该指数周一下午上涨不到0.1%，而罗素1000增长指数当天上涨0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> The JPMorgan strategists said they are particularly bullish on cyclicals and value stocks, partly because of the strong earnings that companies have reported for the second quarter as well as \"signs of receding risk from the delta variant\" of the coronavirus in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，他们特别看好周期性股票和价值股，部分原因是企业公布的第二季度盈利强劲，以及美国冠状病毒“德尔塔变异毒株风险消退的迹象”。</blockquote></p><p> \"On the COVID-19 delta variant we have argued that low mortality in vaccinated countries should help investors look through this--likely last--wave,\" they wrote. \"It appears that investors are waiting for the inflection in U.S. cases, and we believe this is days away.\"</p><p><blockquote>他们写道：“在COVID-19德尔塔变异毒株上，我们认为接种疫苗国家的低死亡率应该有助于投资者度过这一波（可能是最后一波）。”“投资者似乎正在等待美国病例的拐点，我们认为这还需要几天的时间。”</blockquote></p><p> While the strategists view the delta wave as an \"overstated risk,\" they expect an \"amplification of geopolitical and political risks\" next year, according to the report.</p><p><blockquote>报告称，虽然策略师认为三角洲浪潮是一种“被夸大的风险”，但他们预计明年“地缘政治和政治风险将放大”。</blockquote></p><p> Other market concerns include sectors with \"bubble-like behavior,\" the JPMorgan strategists said, citing equities tied to COVID-19 lockdowns, renewable energy, electrical vehicles and crypto, as well as \"hypergrowth\" and innovation stocks.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，其他市场担忧包括具有“类似泡沫行为”的行业，他们引用了与COVID-19封锁、可再生能源、电动汽车和加密货币相关的股票，以及“高速增长”和创新股票。</blockquote></p><p> \"We believe that there will be another leg lower in sectors that exhibited bubble-like behavior since the onset of the pandemic,\" they said. \"But we don't think these segments are significant enough to destabilize the whole market.\"</p><p><blockquote>他们表示：“我们认为，自大流行爆发以来表现出泡沫行为的行业将再次走低。”“但我们认为这些细分市场的重要性不足以破坏整个市场的稳定。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bubble-like-behavior-unlikely-to-destabilize-the-stock-market-but-jpmorgan-says-value-will-prove-a-cushion-as-yields-rise-11629145396?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bubble-like-behavior-unlikely-to-destabilize-the-stock-market-but-jpmorgan-says-value-will-prove-a-cushion-as-yields-rise-11629145396?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2160220098","content_text":"'We continue to believe that bond yields are too low,' say JPMorgan strategists\nA JPMorgan poll of clients found that almost half expect the S&P 500 to rise to 4,600 by the end of this year.\nBond yields and cyclical bets in equities probably bottomed this month and are on their way up for the rest of 2021, with rising rates and pockets of \"bubble-like behavior\" unlikely to destabilize the stock market , according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. report.\nThe bank's market strategists said in a note Monday that they remain bullish on stocks despite \"upward pressure on yields\" and \"mini 'bubble' areas such as SPACs sentiment, but the indexes remained near record highs.\n\"Moderately higher yields shouldn't challenge equity valuations,\" the JPMorgan strategists said in the report. \"Our preference for value stocks would provide a cushion as they would likely outperform in a rising yield environment.\"\nA poll of JPMorgan clients last week found that 48% of investors expect the S&P 500 to rise to 4,600 at the end of this year, with 26% expecting the index to be trading at 4,400, the report shows. The index closed up 0.3% Monday at around 4,479.\nAs for bonds, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note , which closed as low as 1.17% in early August, was trading around 1.26% on Monday afternoon. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.\n\"We continue to believe that bond yields are too low and recommend aggressive bond underweights and value equity overweights in our trade recommendations,\" the JPMorgan analysts said.\nThey estimated that yields of the \"Global Agg\" bond index could rise nearly 0.50 percentage points this year amid a deterioration in the global balance between demand and supply.\nWhile \"mechanically higher real yields would shrink the equity risk premium,\" they wrote that \"one needs to factor in large real yield increases of more than 100bp from current levels to start becoming concerned about equity valuations.\"\nMeanwhile, value stocks, as measured by the Russell 1000 Value index, have also risen from this month's closing low in early August, FactSet data show. The gauge was up by less than 0.1% Monday afternoon, while the Russell 1000 Growth index was up 0.2% on the day.\nThe JPMorgan strategists said they are particularly bullish on cyclicals and value stocks, partly because of the strong earnings that companies have reported for the second quarter as well as \"signs of receding risk from the delta variant\" of the coronavirus in the U.S.\n\"On the COVID-19 delta variant we have argued that low mortality in vaccinated countries should help investors look through this--likely last--wave,\" they wrote. \"It appears that investors are waiting for the inflection in U.S. cases, and we believe this is days away.\"\nWhile the strategists view the delta wave as an \"overstated risk,\" they expect an \"amplification of geopolitical and political risks\" next year, according to the report.\nOther market concerns include sectors with \"bubble-like behavior,\" the JPMorgan strategists said, citing equities tied to COVID-19 lockdowns, renewable energy, electrical vehicles and crypto, as well as \"hypergrowth\" and innovation stocks.\n\"We believe that there will be another leg lower in sectors that exhibited bubble-like behavior since the onset of the pandemic,\" they said. \"But we don't think these segments are significant enough to destabilize the whole market.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":646,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/839288524"}
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