Hahahahahaha as usual. HODL an_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-08-17

Hahahahahaha as usual. HODL and HODL

3 High-Flying Stocks That May Fall 53% to 84%, According to Wall Street<blockquote>华尔街称 3 只飞涨的股票可能下跌 53% 至 84%</blockquote>

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HODL and HODL","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839147451","repostId":1137437693,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137437693","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629116844,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1137437693?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-16 20:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 High-Flying Stocks That May Fall 53% to 84%, According to Wall Street<blockquote>华尔街称 3 只飞涨的股票可能下跌 53% 至 84%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137437693","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Analysts expect these soaring stocks to come crashing back to Earth.\n\nKey Points\n\nThe pandemic and/o","content":" Analysts expect these soaring stocks to come crashing back to Earth. Key Points<blockquote>分析师预计这些飙升的股票将重回地球。要点</blockquote> <ul> <li>The pandemic and/or short squeezes have treated these three companies very well in 2021.</li> <li>Though Wall Street's price targets can often be taken with a grain of salt, these are likely on point.</li> </ul> It's a great time to be an investor. In the close to 17 months since the widely followed&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">S&amp;P 500</a> bottomed out during the coronavirus crash in March 2020, the index has doubled in value. Time and again, patience begets profits on Wall Street.<blockquote><ul><li>疫情和/或空头挤压在2021年对这三家公司很好。</li><li>尽管华尔街的价格目标往往可以持怀疑态度，但这些目标可能是正确的。</li></ul>现在是成为投资者的好时机。在随后的近17个月里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">标普500</a>该指数在 2020 年 3 月冠状病毒崩盘期间触底，但其价值已翻了一番。耐心一次又一次地在华尔街带来利润。</blockquote> However, it's also common knowledge that not every stock is going to be a winner. According to Wall Street analysts and investment firms, there are three high-flying stocks that could lose anywhere from 53% to 84% of their value over the coming year, based on the consensus price target for each company.<blockquote>然而，众所周知，并非每只股票都会成为赢家。根据华尔街分析师和投资公司的说法，根据每家公司的一致目标价，有三只飞涨的股票在未来一年可能会损失 53% 至 84% 的价值。</blockquote> Moderna: Implied downside of 53%<blockquote>Moderna：隐含下跌 53%</blockquote> First up is skyrocketing&nbsp;biotech stock&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna, Inc.</a>, which has gained almost 1,900% since the beginning of 2020. Even after pulling back more than 20% from its intraday high last week, Moderna's share price would have to fall by another 53% just to hit the consensus price target of $184.92.<blockquote>首先上涨的是飙升的生物技术股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">现代公司。</a>自2020年初以来增长了近1,900%。即使从上周盘中高点回落超过 20%，Moderna 的股价仍需再下跌 53%，才能达到 184.92 美元的共识目标价。</blockquote> As you can probably guess, the reason Moderna has ascended to the heavens is the success of its emergency-use authorized (EUA) coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine, mRNA-1273. In clinical trials, Moderna's vaccine candidate led to a vaccine efficacy (VE) of about 94%. With the exception of the&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>/BioNTech&nbsp;vaccine, which presented with a 95% VE, no other EUA vaccines have come close on the efficacy front.<blockquote>正如您可能猜到的那样，Moderna 一飞冲天的原因是其紧急使用授权 (EUA) 冠状病毒疾病 2019 (COVID-19) 疫苗 mRNA-1273 的成功。在临床试验中，Moderna的候选疫苗导致约94%的疫苗效力（VE）。除了 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>/生物技术疫苗的VE为95%，没有其他EUA疫苗在功效方面能与之媲美。</blockquote> The rise of the COVID-19 delta variant has been another major boon for Moderna. The transmissibility of delta has lifted vaccination rates in a number of developed countries, and it encouraged the U.S. Food and Drug Administration toauthorize a booster shotfor those people with compromised immune systems.<blockquote>新冠肺炎德尔塔变异毒株的崛起是 Moderna 的另一大福音。delta的传播性提高了许多发达国家的疫苗接种率，这鼓励了美国。美国食品和药物管理局授权为免疫系统受损的人注射加强针。</blockquote> Ultimately, Moderna's skyrocketing share price appears to indicate that things could worsen before they get better on the COVID-19 front, and that booster shots will offer a beefier stream of revenue than once predicted.<blockquote>最终，Moderna 飙升的股价似乎表明，在 COVID-19 方面好转之前，情况可能会变得更糟，而加强注射将提供比曾经预测的更强大的收入流。</blockquote> However, the issue with Moderna's valuation is twofold. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFBC\">First</a>, competition for COVID-19 vaccinations is increasing, not decreasing.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a>&nbsp;is a good bet to receive EUA within the coming months, and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson &amp; Johnson</a> shouldn't have any trouble ramping up production of its single-dose vaccine. We'reprobably looking at Moderna's peak revenue year in 2021.<blockquote>然而，Moderna 的估值存在双重问题。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFBC\">第一</a>新冠肺炎疫苗接种的竞争正在加剧，而不是减少。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">诺瓦瓦克斯</a>在未来几个月内收到 EUA 是一个不错的选择，并且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">强生公司</a>增加单剂疫苗的产量应该不会有任何问题。我们“应受谴责地展望 Moderna 2021 年的收入高峰年”。</blockquote> The other issue is mRNA-1273 is Moderna's only marketable drug. A $157 billion market cap based on a single therapy that may or may not have staying powersounds very risky.<blockquote>另一个问题是mRNA-1273是Moderna唯一上市的药物。基于单一疗法的 1570 亿美元市值可能会也可能不会留下 powersounds，风险很大。</blockquote> Dillard's: Implied downside of 55%<blockquote>迪拉德的：隐含下跌 55%</blockquote> The next high-flying stock might come as a bit of a surprise... department store chain&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDS\">Dillard's</a>. Shares of Dillard's hit an all-time closing high of $196 on Friday, Aug. 13, pushing its market cap north of $4 billion. But according to analysts, which have a consensus price target of $87.33 on the company, this department store could be hitting the clearance rack with a 55% haircut over the next year.<blockquote>下一只飞涨的股票可能会有点令人惊讶……百货连锁店<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDS\">迪拉德的</a>. 8 月 13 日星期五，迪拉德的股价创下 196 美元的历史收盘新高，将其市值推至 40 亿美元以上。但据分析师称，该公司的一致目标价为 87.33 美元，这家百货商店明年可能会降价 55%。</blockquote> If you're wondering why Dillard's stock is up 625% over the trailing year, itsoperating performance would be a good place to start. The company drastically cut costs in the wake of the pandemic, strongly pushed direct-to-consumer sales, and has tightly managed its inventory. Without these burdensome overhead costs, profits have absolutely skyrocketed over the past two quarters as pent-up demand encouraged consumers to get out of their homes and into retail stores.<blockquote>如果您想知道为什么 Dillard 的股价在过去一年中上涨了 625%，那么它的运营业绩将是一个很好的开始。该公司在大流行后大幅削减成本，大力推动直接面向消费者的销售，并严格管理库存。如果没有这些繁重的管理费用，利润在过去两个季度绝对飙升，因为被压抑的需求鼓励消费者走出家门，进入零售店。</blockquote> Dillard's has done a good job of attempting to boost shareholder value, too. In the 26 weeks, ended July 31, the company repurchased about 1.4 million shares totaling $171 million. This may not sound like a lot, but it reduced the company's outstanding share count by more than 6%.<blockquote>迪拉德在提高股东价值方面也做得很好。在截至 7 月 31 日的 26 周内，该公司回购了约 140 万股股票，总计 1.71 亿美元。这听起来可能不多，但它使公司的流通股数量减少了 6% 以上。</blockquote> It's also worth pointing out that Dillard's has a relatively small tradable float, and it's been a fairly heavily short-sold stock. This combination made it the perfect target for a short squeeze.<blockquote>还值得指出的是，Dillard's 的可交易流通量相对较小，而且它是一只被大量卖空的股票。这种组合使其成为做空的完美目标。</blockquote> Despite all these positives, it's important for investors to recognize that retail department stores are generally slow-growing and cyclical. Even though Dillard's year-over-year comparisons are lights-out impressive, its 26-week retail sales for 2021 are only 1% higher than its 26-week retail sales for the comparable period in 2019. Further, comparable-store sales are only 4% higher in 2021 compared to 2019. While gross margin is notably higher, this has more to do with cost-cutting than significant sales traction.<blockquote>尽管有这些积极因素，但投资者必须认识到零售百货商店通常增长缓慢且具有周期性。尽管迪拉德的同比比较令人印象深刻，但其 2021 年 26 周零售额仅比 2019 年同期的 26 周零售额高出 1%。此外，与2019年相比，2021年可比商店销售额仅增长4%。虽然毛利率明显较高，但这更多地与成本削减有关，而不是显着的销售牵引力。</blockquote> Though Dillard's might defy Wall Street for a bit longer than expected, history suggestsit has no chance to keep up this pace. More than likely, Wall Street's price target will eventually become a reality.<blockquote>尽管迪拉德的挑战华尔街的时间可能比预期的要长一点，但历史表明它没有机会跟上这个步伐。华尔街的价格目标很可能最终会成为现实。</blockquote> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a>: Implied downside of 84%<blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>：隐含下行 84%</blockquote> Sporting the most potential downside, according to Wall Street's consensus price target, is movie theater stock&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a>. Although it's one of the year's top-performing stocks, AMC would need to decline by 84% from its current share price to hit the consensus target of $5.25 a share.<blockquote>根据华尔街的一致目标价，电影院股票最具潜在下跌空间<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>尽管它是今年表现最好的股票之一，但 AMC 需要从当前股价下跌 84%，才能达到每股 5.25 美元的共识目标。</blockquote> AMC received a huge boost in January, when the company was able to save itself from bankruptcy by issuing common stock and debt. Short-sellers who'd been betting on additional downside in the company were caught off-guard by AMC's capital raise, which effected a viciousshort squeeze.<blockquote>一月份，AMC 获得了巨大的提振，当时该公司能够通过发行普通股和债务避免破产。一直押注该公司进一步下跌的卖空者对 AMC 的融资感到措手不及，这导致了恶性的空头挤压。</blockquote> Today, AMC's impassioned retail investors share the same goal -- i.e., to see another short squeeze take place. As of July 30, 85.85 million shares were held short, representing almost 17% of the float.<blockquote>如今，AMC 热情洋溢的散户投资者有着相同的目标——即看到另一次空头挤压发生。截至7月30日，8585万股被做空，占流通股的近17%。</blockquote> The problem for AMC and its retail investors is that fundamentals always matter, and AMC's operating performance and balance sheet arenothing short of a horror movie. While having increased capacity in its theaters drove sequential quarterly sales higher in the second quarter, it doesn't excuse the fact that AMC has burned through $576.5 million in cash over the past six months or that it's a long way from being profitable.<blockquote>AMC 及其散户投资者面临的问题是，基本面始终很重要，而 AMC 的经营业绩和资产负债表简直就是一部恐怖电影。虽然影院容量的增加推动了第二季度季度销售额的环比增长，但这并不能成为 AMC 在过去六个月中消耗了 5.765 亿美元现金或距离盈利还有很长的路要走的事实的借口。</blockquote> The balance sheet is a bigger concern. AMC ended June with $5.5 billion in corporate borrowing and had an additional $420 million in deferred rent that needs to be paid. With the company effectively maxing out its share issuances, AMC will be forced to rely on its $1.81 billion in cash and $212 million revolving credit facility to make good on its rent obligations and pay off its debt. With its 2026 and 2027 bonds going for 58% and 62% of par value, the clear implication from bondholders isthere's concern AMC won't remain solvent.<blockquote>资产负债表是一个更大的问题。截至 6 月底，AMC 拥有 55 亿美元的企业借款，并且还有 4.2 亿美元的递延租金需要支付。随着该公司实际上将股票发行规模扩大，AMC 将被迫依靠其 18.1 亿美元现金和 2.12 亿美元循环信贷额度来履行租金义务并偿还债务。由于其 2026 年和 2027 年债券的面值分别为 58% 和 62%，债券持有人明确表示担心 AMC 将无法保持偿付能力。</blockquote> The icing on the cake is we'vewitnessed theatrical exclusivity dwindle. For instance, AMC's agreement with&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&amp;T Inc</a>'s Warner Bros. offers only a 45-day exclusivity window, which is down from the traditional 75-day to 90-day period of exclusivity prior to the pandemic.<blockquote>锦上添花的是，我们目睹了戏剧排他性的减少。例如，AMC 与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">美国电话电报公司</a>华纳兄弟仅提供 45 天的独家时间，低于大流行前传统的 75 天至 90 天的独家时间。</blockquote> It may take longer than 12 months, but AMC does look to beheaded back to its February low.<blockquote>这可能需要超过 12 个月的时间，但 AMC 确实有望重返 2 月份的低点。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 High-Flying Stocks That May Fall 53% to 84%, According to Wall Street<blockquote>华尔街称 3 只飞涨的股票可能下跌 53% 至 84%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 High-Flying Stocks That May Fall 53% to 84%, According to Wall Street<blockquote>华尔街称 3 只飞涨的股票可能下跌 53% 至 84%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMotley Fool2021-08-16 20:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Analysts expect these soaring stocks to come crashing back to Earth. Key Points<blockquote>分析师预计这些飙升的股票将重回地球。要点</blockquote> <ul> <li>The pandemic and/or short squeezes have treated these three companies very well in 2021.</li> <li>Though Wall Street's price targets can often be taken with a grain of salt, these are likely on point.</li> </ul> It's a great time to be an investor. In the close to 17 months since the widely followed&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">S&amp;P 500</a> bottomed out during the coronavirus crash in March 2020, the index has doubled in value. Time and again, patience begets profits on Wall Street.<blockquote><ul><li>疫情和/或空头挤压在2021年对这三家公司很好。</li><li>尽管华尔街的价格目标往往可以持怀疑态度，但这些目标可能是正确的。</li></ul>现在是成为投资者的好时机。在随后的近17个月里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">标普500</a>该指数在 2020 年 3 月冠状病毒崩盘期间触底，但其价值已翻了一番。耐心一次又一次地在华尔街带来利润。</blockquote> However, it's also common knowledge that not every stock is going to be a winner. According to Wall Street analysts and investment firms, there are three high-flying stocks that could lose anywhere from 53% to 84% of their value over the coming year, based on the consensus price target for each company.<blockquote>然而，众所周知，并非每只股票都会成为赢家。根据华尔街分析师和投资公司的说法，根据每家公司的一致目标价，有三只飞涨的股票在未来一年可能会损失 53% 至 84% 的价值。</blockquote> Moderna: Implied downside of 53%<blockquote>Moderna：隐含下跌 53%</blockquote> First up is skyrocketing&nbsp;biotech stock&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna, Inc.</a>, which has gained almost 1,900% since the beginning of 2020. Even after pulling back more than 20% from its intraday high last week, Moderna's share price would have to fall by another 53% just to hit the consensus price target of $184.92.<blockquote>首先上涨的是飙升的生物技术股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">现代公司。</a>自2020年初以来增长了近1,900%。即使从上周盘中高点回落超过 20%，Moderna 的股价仍需再下跌 53%，才能达到 184.92 美元的共识目标价。</blockquote> As you can probably guess, the reason Moderna has ascended to the heavens is the success of its emergency-use authorized (EUA) coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine, mRNA-1273. In clinical trials, Moderna's vaccine candidate led to a vaccine efficacy (VE) of about 94%. With the exception of the&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>/BioNTech&nbsp;vaccine, which presented with a 95% VE, no other EUA vaccines have come close on the efficacy front.<blockquote>正如您可能猜到的那样，Moderna 一飞冲天的原因是其紧急使用授权 (EUA) 冠状病毒疾病 2019 (COVID-19) 疫苗 mRNA-1273 的成功。在临床试验中，Moderna的候选疫苗导致约94%的疫苗效力（VE）。除了 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>/生物技术疫苗的VE为95%，没有其他EUA疫苗在功效方面能与之媲美。</blockquote> The rise of the COVID-19 delta variant has been another major boon for Moderna. The transmissibility of delta has lifted vaccination rates in a number of developed countries, and it encouraged the U.S. Food and Drug Administration toauthorize a booster shotfor those people with compromised immune systems.<blockquote>新冠肺炎德尔塔变异毒株的崛起是 Moderna 的另一大福音。delta的传播性提高了许多发达国家的疫苗接种率，这鼓励了美国。美国食品和药物管理局授权为免疫系统受损的人注射加强针。</blockquote> Ultimately, Moderna's skyrocketing share price appears to indicate that things could worsen before they get better on the COVID-19 front, and that booster shots will offer a beefier stream of revenue than once predicted.<blockquote>最终，Moderna 飙升的股价似乎表明，在 COVID-19 方面好转之前，情况可能会变得更糟，而加强注射将提供比曾经预测的更强大的收入流。</blockquote> However, the issue with Moderna's valuation is twofold. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFBC\">First</a>, competition for COVID-19 vaccinations is increasing, not decreasing.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a>&nbsp;is a good bet to receive EUA within the coming months, and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson &amp; Johnson</a> shouldn't have any trouble ramping up production of its single-dose vaccine. We'reprobably looking at Moderna's peak revenue year in 2021.<blockquote>然而，Moderna 的估值存在双重问题。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFBC\">第一</a>新冠肺炎疫苗接种的竞争正在加剧，而不是减少。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">诺瓦瓦克斯</a>在未来几个月内收到 EUA 是一个不错的选择，并且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">强生公司</a>增加单剂疫苗的产量应该不会有任何问题。我们“应受谴责地展望 Moderna 2021 年的收入高峰年”。</blockquote> The other issue is mRNA-1273 is Moderna's only marketable drug. A $157 billion market cap based on a single therapy that may or may not have staying powersounds very risky.<blockquote>另一个问题是mRNA-1273是Moderna唯一上市的药物。基于单一疗法的 1570 亿美元市值可能会也可能不会留下 powersounds，风险很大。</blockquote> Dillard's: Implied downside of 55%<blockquote>迪拉德的：隐含下跌 55%</blockquote> The next high-flying stock might come as a bit of a surprise... department store chain&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDS\">Dillard's</a>. Shares of Dillard's hit an all-time closing high of $196 on Friday, Aug. 13, pushing its market cap north of $4 billion. But according to analysts, which have a consensus price target of $87.33 on the company, this department store could be hitting the clearance rack with a 55% haircut over the next year.<blockquote>下一只飞涨的股票可能会有点令人惊讶……百货连锁店<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDS\">迪拉德的</a>. 8 月 13 日星期五，迪拉德的股价创下 196 美元的历史收盘新高，将其市值推至 40 亿美元以上。但据分析师称，该公司的一致目标价为 87.33 美元，这家百货商店明年可能会降价 55%。</blockquote> If you're wondering why Dillard's stock is up 625% over the trailing year, itsoperating performance would be a good place to start. The company drastically cut costs in the wake of the pandemic, strongly pushed direct-to-consumer sales, and has tightly managed its inventory. Without these burdensome overhead costs, profits have absolutely skyrocketed over the past two quarters as pent-up demand encouraged consumers to get out of their homes and into retail stores.<blockquote>如果您想知道为什么 Dillard 的股价在过去一年中上涨了 625%，那么它的运营业绩将是一个很好的开始。该公司在大流行后大幅削减成本，大力推动直接面向消费者的销售，并严格管理库存。如果没有这些繁重的管理费用，利润在过去两个季度绝对飙升，因为被压抑的需求鼓励消费者走出家门，进入零售店。</blockquote> Dillard's has done a good job of attempting to boost shareholder value, too. In the 26 weeks, ended July 31, the company repurchased about 1.4 million shares totaling $171 million. This may not sound like a lot, but it reduced the company's outstanding share count by more than 6%.<blockquote>迪拉德在提高股东价值方面也做得很好。在截至 7 月 31 日的 26 周内，该公司回购了约 140 万股股票，总计 1.71 亿美元。这听起来可能不多，但它使公司的流通股数量减少了 6% 以上。</blockquote> It's also worth pointing out that Dillard's has a relatively small tradable float, and it's been a fairly heavily short-sold stock. This combination made it the perfect target for a short squeeze.<blockquote>还值得指出的是，Dillard's 的可交易流通量相对较小，而且它是一只被大量卖空的股票。这种组合使其成为做空的完美目标。</blockquote> Despite all these positives, it's important for investors to recognize that retail department stores are generally slow-growing and cyclical. Even though Dillard's year-over-year comparisons are lights-out impressive, its 26-week retail sales for 2021 are only 1% higher than its 26-week retail sales for the comparable period in 2019. Further, comparable-store sales are only 4% higher in 2021 compared to 2019. While gross margin is notably higher, this has more to do with cost-cutting than significant sales traction.<blockquote>尽管有这些积极因素，但投资者必须认识到零售百货商店通常增长缓慢且具有周期性。尽管迪拉德的同比比较令人印象深刻，但其 2021 年 26 周零售额仅比 2019 年同期的 26 周零售额高出 1%。此外，与2019年相比，2021年可比商店销售额仅增长4%。虽然毛利率明显较高，但这更多地与成本削减有关，而不是显着的销售牵引力。</blockquote> Though Dillard's might defy Wall Street for a bit longer than expected, history suggestsit has no chance to keep up this pace. More than likely, Wall Street's price target will eventually become a reality.<blockquote>尽管迪拉德的挑战华尔街的时间可能比预期的要长一点，但历史表明它没有机会跟上这个步伐。华尔街的价格目标很可能最终会成为现实。</blockquote> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a>: Implied downside of 84%<blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>：隐含下行 84%</blockquote> Sporting the most potential downside, according to Wall Street's consensus price target, is movie theater stock&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a>. Although it's one of the year's top-performing stocks, AMC would need to decline by 84% from its current share price to hit the consensus target of $5.25 a share.<blockquote>根据华尔街的一致目标价，电影院股票最具潜在下跌空间<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>尽管它是今年表现最好的股票之一，但 AMC 需要从当前股价下跌 84%，才能达到每股 5.25 美元的共识目标。</blockquote> AMC received a huge boost in January, when the company was able to save itself from bankruptcy by issuing common stock and debt. Short-sellers who'd been betting on additional downside in the company were caught off-guard by AMC's capital raise, which effected a viciousshort squeeze.<blockquote>一月份，AMC 获得了巨大的提振，当时该公司能够通过发行普通股和债务避免破产。一直押注该公司进一步下跌的卖空者对 AMC 的融资感到措手不及，这导致了恶性的空头挤压。</blockquote> Today, AMC's impassioned retail investors share the same goal -- i.e., to see another short squeeze take place. As of July 30, 85.85 million shares were held short, representing almost 17% of the float.<blockquote>如今，AMC 热情洋溢的散户投资者有着相同的目标——即看到另一次空头挤压发生。截至7月30日，8585万股被做空，占流通股的近17%。</blockquote> The problem for AMC and its retail investors is that fundamentals always matter, and AMC's operating performance and balance sheet arenothing short of a horror movie. While having increased capacity in its theaters drove sequential quarterly sales higher in the second quarter, it doesn't excuse the fact that AMC has burned through $576.5 million in cash over the past six months or that it's a long way from being profitable.<blockquote>AMC 及其散户投资者面临的问题是，基本面始终很重要，而 AMC 的经营业绩和资产负债表简直就是一部恐怖电影。虽然影院容量的增加推动了第二季度季度销售额的环比增长，但这并不能成为 AMC 在过去六个月中消耗了 5.765 亿美元现金或距离盈利还有很长的路要走的事实的借口。</blockquote> The balance sheet is a bigger concern. AMC ended June with $5.5 billion in corporate borrowing and had an additional $420 million in deferred rent that needs to be paid. With the company effectively maxing out its share issuances, AMC will be forced to rely on its $1.81 billion in cash and $212 million revolving credit facility to make good on its rent obligations and pay off its debt. With its 2026 and 2027 bonds going for 58% and 62% of par value, the clear implication from bondholders isthere's concern AMC won't remain solvent.<blockquote>资产负债表是一个更大的问题。截至 6 月底，AMC 拥有 55 亿美元的企业借款，并且还有 4.2 亿美元的递延租金需要支付。随着该公司实际上将股票发行规模扩大，AMC 将被迫依靠其 18.1 亿美元现金和 2.12 亿美元循环信贷额度来履行租金义务并偿还债务。由于其 2026 年和 2027 年债券的面值分别为 58% 和 62%，债券持有人明确表示担心 AMC 将无法保持偿付能力。</blockquote> The icing on the cake is we'vewitnessed theatrical exclusivity dwindle. For instance, AMC's agreement with&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&amp;T Inc</a>'s Warner Bros. offers only a 45-day exclusivity window, which is down from the traditional 75-day to 90-day period of exclusivity prior to the pandemic.<blockquote>锦上添花的是，我们目睹了戏剧排他性的减少。例如，AMC 与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">美国电话电报公司</a>华纳兄弟仅提供 45 天的独家时间，低于大流行前传统的 75 天至 90 天的独家时间。</blockquote> It may take longer than 12 months, but AMC does look to beheaded back to its February low.<blockquote>这可能需要超过 12 个月的时间，但 AMC 确实有望重返 2 月份的低点。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/16/3-high-flying-stocks-may-fall-53-to-84-wall-street/\">Motley Fool</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","JNJ":"强生",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AMC":"AMC院线","DDS":"狄乐百货"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/16/3-high-flying-stocks-may-fall-53-to-84-wall-street/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137437693","content_text":"Analysts expect these soaring stocks to come crashing back to Earth.\n\nKey Points\n\nThe pandemic and/or short squeezes have treated these three companies very well in 2021.\nThough Wall Street's price targets can often be taken with a grain of salt, these are likely on point.\n\nIt's a great time to be an investor. In the close to 17 months since the widely followed S&P 500 bottomed out during the coronavirus crash in March 2020, the index has doubled in value. Time and again, patience begets profits on Wall Street.\nHowever, it's also common knowledge that not every stock is going to be a winner. According to Wall Street analysts and investment firms, there are three high-flying stocks that could lose anywhere from 53% to 84% of their value over the coming year, based on the consensus price target for each company.\nModerna: Implied downside of 53%\nFirst up is skyrocketing biotech stock Moderna, Inc., which has gained almost 1,900% since the beginning of 2020. Even after pulling back more than 20% from its intraday high last week, Moderna's share price would have to fall by another 53% just to hit the consensus price target of $184.92.\nAs you can probably guess, the reason Moderna has ascended to the heavens is the success of its emergency-use authorized (EUA) coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine, mRNA-1273. In clinical trials, Moderna's vaccine candidate led to a vaccine efficacy (VE) of about 94%. With the exception of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, which presented with a 95% VE, no other EUA vaccines have come close on the efficacy front.\nThe rise of the COVID-19 delta variant has been another major boon for Moderna. The transmissibility of delta has lifted vaccination rates in a number of developed countries, and it encouraged the U.S. Food and Drug Administration toauthorize a booster shotfor those people with compromised immune systems.\nUltimately, Moderna's skyrocketing share price appears to indicate that things could worsen before they get better on the COVID-19 front, and that booster shots will offer a beefier stream of revenue than once predicted.\nHowever, the issue with Moderna's valuation is twofold. First, competition for COVID-19 vaccinations is increasing, not decreasing. Novavax is a good bet to receive EUA within the coming months, and Johnson & Johnson shouldn't have any trouble ramping up production of its single-dose vaccine. We'reprobably looking at Moderna's peak revenue year in 2021.\nThe other issue is mRNA-1273 is Moderna's only marketable drug. A $157 billion market cap based on a single therapy that may or may not have staying powersounds very risky.\nDillard's: Implied downside of 55%\nThe next high-flying stock might come as a bit of a surprise... department store chain Dillard's. Shares of Dillard's hit an all-time closing high of $196 on Friday, Aug. 13, pushing its market cap north of $4 billion. But according to analysts, which have a consensus price target of $87.33 on the company, this department store could be hitting the clearance rack with a 55% haircut over the next year.\nIf you're wondering why Dillard's stock is up 625% over the trailing year, itsoperating performance would be a good place to start. The company drastically cut costs in the wake of the pandemic, strongly pushed direct-to-consumer sales, and has tightly managed its inventory. Without these burdensome overhead costs, profits have absolutely skyrocketed over the past two quarters as pent-up demand encouraged consumers to get out of their homes and into retail stores.\nDillard's has done a good job of attempting to boost shareholder value, too. In the 26 weeks, ended July 31, the company repurchased about 1.4 million shares totaling $171 million. This may not sound like a lot, but it reduced the company's outstanding share count by more than 6%.\nIt's also worth pointing out that Dillard's has a relatively small tradable float, and it's been a fairly heavily short-sold stock. This combination made it the perfect target for a short squeeze.\nDespite all these positives, it's important for investors to recognize that retail department stores are generally slow-growing and cyclical. Even though Dillard's year-over-year comparisons are lights-out impressive, its 26-week retail sales for 2021 are only 1% higher than its 26-week retail sales for the comparable period in 2019. Further, comparable-store sales are only 4% higher in 2021 compared to 2019. While gross margin is notably higher, this has more to do with cost-cutting than significant sales traction.\nThough Dillard's might defy Wall Street for a bit longer than expected, history suggestsit has no chance to keep up this pace. More than likely, Wall Street's price target will eventually become a reality.\nAMC Entertainment: Implied downside of 84%\nSporting the most potential downside, according to Wall Street's consensus price target, is movie theater stock AMC Entertainment. Although it's one of the year's top-performing stocks, AMC would need to decline by 84% from its current share price to hit the consensus target of $5.25 a share.\nAMC received a huge boost in January, when the company was able to save itself from bankruptcy by issuing common stock and debt. Short-sellers who'd been betting on additional downside in the company were caught off-guard by AMC's capital raise, which effected a viciousshort squeeze.\nToday, AMC's impassioned retail investors share the same goal -- i.e., to see another short squeeze take place. As of July 30, 85.85 million shares were held short, representing almost 17% of the float.\nThe problem for AMC and its retail investors is that fundamentals always matter, and AMC's operating performance and balance sheet arenothing short of a horror movie. While having increased capacity in its theaters drove sequential quarterly sales higher in the second quarter, it doesn't excuse the fact that AMC has burned through $576.5 million in cash over the past six months or that it's a long way from being profitable.\nThe balance sheet is a bigger concern. AMC ended June with $5.5 billion in corporate borrowing and had an additional $420 million in deferred rent that needs to be paid. With the company effectively maxing out its share issuances, AMC will be forced to rely on its $1.81 billion in cash and $212 million revolving credit facility to make good on its rent obligations and pay off its debt. With its 2026 and 2027 bonds going for 58% and 62% of par value, the clear implication from bondholders isthere's concern AMC won't remain solvent.\nThe icing on the cake is we'vewitnessed theatrical exclusivity dwindle. For instance, AMC's agreement with AT&T Inc's Warner Bros. offers only a 45-day exclusivity window, which is down from the traditional 75-day to 90-day period of exclusivity prior to the pandemic.\nIt may take longer than 12 months, but AMC does look to beheaded back to its February low.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRNA":0.9,"JNJ":0.9,"AMC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DDS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2882,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":31,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/839147451"}