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2021-08-20
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The S&P 500 hasn't fallen by at least 5% in nearly 200 sessions -- Here's what history says happens next<blockquote>标普500在近 200 个交易日中没有至少下跌 5%——历史表明接下来会发生什么</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":838522941,"tweetId":"838522941","gmtCreate":1629420338683,"gmtModify":1631888917910,"author":{"id":3581914245836452,"idStr":"3581914245836452","authorId":3581914245836452,"authorIdStr":"3581914245836452","name":"RXX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4b5a03d25bea5fa50ec0dd0a11e9e39","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":9,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Ok</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Ok</p></body></html>","text":"Ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838522941","repostId":2160982795,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2160982795","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629419419,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2160982795?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-20 08:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 hasn't fallen by at least 5% in nearly 200 sessions -- Here's what history says happens next<blockquote>标普500在近 200 个交易日中没有至少下跌 5%——历史表明接下来会发生什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2160982795","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It is the unbearable lightness of being for the S&P 500 index.\nThe broad-market measure of a basket ","content":"<p>It is the unbearable lightness of being for the S&P 500 index.</p><p><blockquote>对于标普500指数来说，这是一种难以忍受的轻盈。</blockquote></p><p> The broad-market measure of a basket of 500 U.S. stocks has been preternaturally resistant to pullbacks of late, despite concerns about the spread of the highly transmissible delta variant of COVID-19 and worries that the Federal Reserve's strategy to reduce its bond purchases may be be ill-timed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管人们担心高传染性 COVID-19 德尔塔变异毒株的传播，并担心美联储减少债券购买的策略可能不合时宜，但一篮子 500 只美国股票的大盘衡量标准最近对回调表现出了超乎寻常的抵抗力。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, the S&P 500 index has seen a largely uninterrupted ascent to such a degree that this Friday, absent a sharp sell off, will mark the 200th session without a drawdown of at least 5% from its recent peak, making the current stretch of levitation the longest such since 2016, when the market went 404 sessions without falling by at least 5% peak to trough.</p><p><blockquote>然而，标普500指数基本上不间断地上涨到如此程度，以至于本周五，如果没有大幅抛售，将标志着第200个交易日，较最近的峰值没有至少回落5%，使当前的悬浮期成为自2016年以来最长的悬浮期，当时市场经历了404个交易日，从峰值到谷值没有下跌至少5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f58e101e58fb729da9dd8c9d508adfed\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"686\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Dow Jones Market Data</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：道琼斯市场数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> It is extremely rare for the market to enjoy such a period of relative effervescence. Indeed, such lengthy stretches without a 5% pullback or better have occurred on only eight occasions in the S&P 500 index, the attached table shows.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr><tr></tr></tbody></table>市场享受到这样一段相对沸腾的时期是极其罕见的。事实上，附表显示，在标普500指数中，这种没有 5% 或更好回调的长时间走势只发生过八次。</blockquote></p><p> There clearly are reasons why the market is clambering higher in the recovery from COVID, set against a daunting wall of worry . Investors are jockeying between areas of the market that are expected to boost revenue and profit faster than the rest of the pack and those that are beaten down and might benefit from a fuller economic rebound from coronavirus.</p><p><blockquote>在令人生畏的担忧之墙面前，市场在从新冠疫情中复苏的过程中攀升显然是有原因的。投资者正在市场中那些预计将比其他领域更快地增加收入和利润的领域，以及那些受到打击并可能从冠状病毒带来的更全面的经济反弹中受益的领域。</blockquote></p><p> Buying on Monday helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index produce their 35th and 49th record all-time closing highs of 2021, respectively. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite Index stands a little over 2.5% from its record high put in on Aug. 5.</p><p><blockquote>周一的买盘帮助道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数分别创下 2021 年第 35 和第 49 个历史收盘高点。与此同时，纳斯达克综合指数较 8 月 5 日创下的历史高点略高于 2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b738ae98488d6e2b57ea0f402b068f4\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"674\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> There is, of course, a sense that the party for stocks can't last forever.</p><p><blockquote>当然，人们有一种感觉，股市派对不可能永远持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> So, how does the market tend to perform in period after such a protracted bullish run?</p><p><blockquote>那么，在经历了如此漫长的牛市之后，市场的表现如何呢？</blockquote></p><p> The data set is very small but the S&P 500 has mostly climbed on a median basis, falling 1.2% in the following year but producing a median gain of 17.6% in a two-year period and 55% in the ensuing five-year period. The mean average return is better, showing a gain of 6.5%, 27.4% and 64%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>数据集非常小，但标普500大多在中位数基础上攀升，第二年下降了1.2%，但两年内的中位数涨幅为17.6%，随后的五年内的中位数涨幅为55%。平均回报率较好，分别增长6.5%、27.4%和64%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a40e59f01623bead5c779e69ab6743\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"633\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DOW JONES MARKET DATA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>道琼斯市场数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 hasn't fallen by at least 5% in nearly 200 sessions -- Here's what history says happens next<blockquote>标普500在近 200 个交易日中没有至少下跌 5%——历史表明接下来会发生什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 hasn't fallen by at least 5% in nearly 200 sessions -- Here's what history says happens next<blockquote>标普500在近 200 个交易日中没有至少下跌 5%——历史表明接下来会发生什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-20 08:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is the unbearable lightness of being for the S&P 500 index.</p><p><blockquote>对于标普500指数来说，这是一种难以忍受的轻盈。</blockquote></p><p> The broad-market measure of a basket of 500 U.S. stocks has been preternaturally resistant to pullbacks of late, despite concerns about the spread of the highly transmissible delta variant of COVID-19 and worries that the Federal Reserve's strategy to reduce its bond purchases may be be ill-timed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管人们担心高传染性 COVID-19 德尔塔变异毒株的传播，并担心美联储减少债券购买的策略可能不合时宜，但一篮子 500 只美国股票的大盘衡量标准最近对回调表现出了超乎寻常的抵抗力。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, the S&P 500 index has seen a largely uninterrupted ascent to such a degree that this Friday, absent a sharp sell off, will mark the 200th session without a drawdown of at least 5% from its recent peak, making the current stretch of levitation the longest such since 2016, when the market went 404 sessions without falling by at least 5% peak to trough.</p><p><blockquote>然而，标普500指数基本上不间断地上涨到如此程度，以至于本周五，如果没有大幅抛售，将标志着第200个交易日，较最近的峰值没有至少回落5%，使当前的悬浮期成为自2016年以来最长的悬浮期，当时市场经历了404个交易日，从峰值到谷值没有下跌至少5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f58e101e58fb729da9dd8c9d508adfed\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"686\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Dow Jones Market Data</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：道琼斯市场数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> It is extremely rare for the market to enjoy such a period of relative effervescence. Indeed, such lengthy stretches without a 5% pullback or better have occurred on only eight occasions in the S&P 500 index, the attached table shows.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr><tr></tr></tbody></table>市场享受到这样一段相对沸腾的时期是极其罕见的。事实上，附表显示，在标普500指数中，这种没有 5% 或更好回调的长时间走势只发生过八次。</blockquote></p><p> There clearly are reasons why the market is clambering higher in the recovery from COVID, set against a daunting wall of worry . Investors are jockeying between areas of the market that are expected to boost revenue and profit faster than the rest of the pack and those that are beaten down and might benefit from a fuller economic rebound from coronavirus.</p><p><blockquote>在令人生畏的担忧之墙面前，市场在从新冠疫情中复苏的过程中攀升显然是有原因的。投资者正在市场中那些预计将比其他领域更快地增加收入和利润的领域，以及那些受到打击并可能从冠状病毒带来的更全面的经济反弹中受益的领域。</blockquote></p><p> Buying on Monday helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index produce their 35th and 49th record all-time closing highs of 2021, respectively. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite Index stands a little over 2.5% from its record high put in on Aug. 5.</p><p><blockquote>周一的买盘帮助道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数分别创下 2021 年第 35 和第 49 个历史收盘高点。与此同时，纳斯达克综合指数较 8 月 5 日创下的历史高点略高于 2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b738ae98488d6e2b57ea0f402b068f4\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"674\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> There is, of course, a sense that the party for stocks can't last forever.</p><p><blockquote>当然，人们有一种感觉，股市派对不可能永远持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> So, how does the market tend to perform in period after such a protracted bullish run?</p><p><blockquote>那么，在经历了如此漫长的牛市之后，市场的表现如何呢？</blockquote></p><p> The data set is very small but the S&P 500 has mostly climbed on a median basis, falling 1.2% in the following year but producing a median gain of 17.6% in a two-year period and 55% in the ensuing five-year period. The mean average return is better, showing a gain of 6.5%, 27.4% and 64%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>数据集非常小，但标普500大多在中位数基础上攀升，第二年下降了1.2%，但两年内的中位数涨幅为17.6%，随后的五年内的中位数涨幅为55%。平均回报率较好，分别增长6.5%、27.4%和64%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a40e59f01623bead5c779e69ab6743\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"633\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DOW JONES MARKET DATA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>道琼斯市场数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-hasnt-fallen-by-at-least-5-in-nearly-200-sessions-heres-what-history-says-happens-next-11629401149?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-hasnt-fallen-by-at-least-5-in-nearly-200-sessions-heres-what-history-says-happens-next-11629401149?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2160982795","content_text":"It is the unbearable lightness of being for the S&P 500 index.\nThe broad-market measure of a basket of 500 U.S. stocks has been preternaturally resistant to pullbacks of late, despite concerns about the spread of the highly transmissible delta variant of COVID-19 and worries that the Federal Reserve's strategy to reduce its bond purchases may be be ill-timed.\nYet, the S&P 500 index has seen a largely uninterrupted ascent to such a degree that this Friday, absent a sharp sell off, will mark the 200th session without a drawdown of at least 5% from its recent peak, making the current stretch of levitation the longest such since 2016, when the market went 404 sessions without falling by at least 5% peak to trough.\nSource: Dow Jones Market Data\n\n\n\n\n\n\nIt is extremely rare for the market to enjoy such a period of relative effervescence. Indeed, such lengthy stretches without a 5% pullback or better have occurred on only eight occasions in the S&P 500 index, the attached table shows.\nThere clearly are reasons why the market is clambering higher in the recovery from COVID, set against a daunting wall of worry . Investors are jockeying between areas of the market that are expected to boost revenue and profit faster than the rest of the pack and those that are beaten down and might benefit from a fuller economic rebound from coronavirus.\nBuying on Monday helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index produce their 35th and 49th record all-time closing highs of 2021, respectively. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite Index stands a little over 2.5% from its record high put in on Aug. 5.\n\nThere is, of course, a sense that the party for stocks can't last forever.\nSo, how does the market tend to perform in period after such a protracted bullish run?\nThe data set is very small but the S&P 500 has mostly climbed on a median basis, falling 1.2% in the following year but producing a median gain of 17.6% in a two-year period and 55% in the ensuing five-year period. The mean average return is better, showing a gain of 6.5%, 27.4% and 64%, respectively.\nDOW JONES MARKET DATA","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SDS":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"OEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2525,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/838522941"}
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