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2021-08-25

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This Might Be the Most Important Metric If You Own Apple Stock<blockquote>如果您拥有苹果股票，这可能是最重要的指标</blockquote>

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For one thing, he thinks Street estimates for next year are simply too high. Hall projects revenue for the September 2021 fiscal year of $371.7 billion, about $5 billion above the Street consensus, and up 35% from fiscal 2020. But he sees fiscal 2022 revenue falling 4% to $356.5 billion, a projection $23 billion below the Street consensus at $379.5 billion.<blockquote>但霍尔对苹果（股票代码：AAPL）的前景仍有一些担忧，这反映在他 140 美元的目标价上，比最近的价格低约 10 美元。首先，他认为华尔街对明年的预期实在太高了。霍尔预计 2021 年 9 月财年的收入为 3717 亿美元，比华尔街共识高出约 50 亿美元，比 2020 财年增长 35%。但他预计 2022 财年收入将下降 4%，至 3565 亿美元，比华尔街共识的 3795 亿美元低 230 亿美元。</blockquote> Hall provided some insights on this thinking in a new research note on Tuesday, with a particular focus on Apple’s ability to drive up average revenue per user. Hall writes that his broad view of Apple has been that stable revenue per user combined with “maximized” global user penetration is likely to result in slowing overall revenue growth, a view reflected in his fiscal 2022 forecast.<blockquote>霍尔在周二的一份新研究报告中对这种想法提出了一些见解，特别关注苹果提高每用户平均收入的能力。霍尔写道，他对苹果的大致看法是，稳定的每用户收入加上 “最大化 ”的全球用户渗透率可能会导致整体收入增长放缓，这一观点反映在他的 2022 财年预测中。</blockquote> But he noted that Covid provided multiple boosts to Apple’s ARPU, which he estimates will increase 21% over the two-year period through the end of 2021. (That reflects his estimate of 19% growth in ARPU in calendar 2021, after 2% growth in 2020.) The impressive growth stems from both surging&nbsp;iPhone, Mac, iPad and Wearables revenue, as well as strong services revenue, due in part to accelerated downloads from the App Store.<blockquote>但他指出，Covid 为苹果的 ARPU 带来了多重提升，他估计在截至 2021 年底的两年期间，ARPU 将增长 21%。（这反映了他对 2021 年 ARPU 增长 19% 的估计，而 2020 年增长了 2%。）令人印象深刻的增长源于 iPhone、Mac、iPad 和可穿戴设备收入的飙升，以及强劲的服务收入，部分原因是 App Store 的下载速度加快。</blockquote> But he sees that pattern reversing as spending patterns return to normal over time as the pandemic ebbs.<blockquote>但他认为，随着疫情的消退，支出模式随着时间的推移恢复正常，这种模式将会逆转。</blockquote> Hall concedes that it is hard to predict Apple user behavior in the short run. Covid has created some tough comps for Apple, driven by pull-forward in hardware demand, above-average App Store spending and a demonstrated preference for high-end versions of the iPhone and other hardware. He also says investors need to factor in high levels of consumer savings and the increasing value of Apple’s products, as well as more flexible work and study behavior. But he nonetheless thinks that in the long run, Apple will either need to drive up ARPU or accelerate subscriber growth trends to keep revenue growth above GDP growth.<blockquote>霍尔承认，短期内很难预测苹果用户的行为。在硬件需求的推动、高于平均水平的应用商店支出以及对高端版本 iPhone 和其他硬件的明显偏好的推动下，Covid 为苹果带来了一些艰难的竞争。他还表示，投资者需要考虑到消费者的高水平储蓄和苹果产品不断增长的价值，以及更灵活的工作和学习行为。但他仍然认为，从长远来看，苹果要么需要提高 ARPU，要么需要加速用户增长趋势，以保持收入增长高于 GDP 增长。</blockquote> For calendar 2022, Hall sees average revenue per user dropping about 12% on a year-over-year basis – due in large part to an expected moderation of hardware sales. He projects iPhone revenue will fall 12% in 2022, following 37% growth in 2021, with units down 3% and average selling prices down 9%. He sees 2022 revenue declines of 9% in Macs and 8% in iPads. And he sees services revenue growth moderating to 6%, from 24% growth in 2021, with a recovery in ad spending partially offsetting tough comparisons for the App Store.<blockquote>对于 2022 年日历，Hall 预计每用户平均收入将同比下降约 12%，这在很大程度上是由于硬件销售预期放缓。他预计，继 2021 年增长 37% 之后，2022 年 iPhone 收入将下降 12%，销量下降 3%，平均售价下降 9%。他预计 2022 年 Mac 收入将下降 9%，iPad 收入将下降 8%。他预计服务收入增长将从 2021 年的 24% 放缓至 6%，广告支出的复苏部分抵消了 App Store 的艰难比较。</blockquote> Hall also makes the case that investors would be better off looking at ARPU trends than trying to discern unit volumes, particularly given the company has not actually provided product unit data since the end of fiscal 2018. He thinks given the lack of hard data on units, “the data sources many investors rely on to forecast Apple’s revenue over time have become less accurate.”<blockquote>霍尔还认为，投资者最好关注 ARPU 趋势，而不是试图辨别单位数量，特别是考虑到该公司自 2018 财年末以来实际上没有提供产品单位数据。他认为，由于缺乏单位的硬数据，“随着时间的推移，许多投资者用来预测苹果收入的数据来源已经变得不那么准确了”。</blockquote> Apple shares are down a few pennies on Tuesday at $149.62, about $2 below their all-time intraday high at $151.68.<blockquote>苹果股价周二下跌几美分，至 149.62 美元，比盘中历史高点 151.68 美元低约 2 美元。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Might Be the Most Important Metric If You Own Apple Stock<blockquote>如果您拥有苹果股票，这可能是最重要的指标</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Might Be the Most Important Metric If You Own Apple Stock<blockquote>如果您拥有苹果股票，这可能是最重要的指标</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-08-25 15:23\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nBack in April, Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall backed away from his long-term bearish stance on Apple shares, raising his rating to Hold from Sell, and conceding that his previous view that iPhone sales would disappoint during the pandemic was “clearly wrong.” He also conceded at the time that both Mac and iPad sales had materially outperformed his forecasts.<blockquote>早在今年 4 月，高盛分析师罗德-霍尔（Rod Hall）就放弃了对苹果股票的长期看跌立场，将评级从卖出上调至持有，并承认他之前认为 iPhone 在大流行病期间销量会令人失望的观点 “显然是错误的”。他当时还承认，Mac 和 iPad 的销量都大大超出了他的预测。</blockquote> But Hall still has some concerns about the outlook for Apple (ticker: AAPL), as reflected in his $140 target price, about $10 below the recent price. For one thing, he thinks Street estimates for next year are simply too high. Hall projects revenue for the September 2021 fiscal year of $371.7 billion, about $5 billion above the Street consensus, and up 35% from fiscal 2020. But he sees fiscal 2022 revenue falling 4% to $356.5 billion, a projection $23 billion below the Street consensus at $379.5 billion.<blockquote>但霍尔对苹果（股票代码：AAPL）的前景仍有一些担忧，这反映在他 140 美元的目标价上，比最近的价格低约 10 美元。首先，他认为华尔街对明年的预期实在太高了。霍尔预计 2021 年 9 月财年的收入为 3717 亿美元，比华尔街共识高出约 50 亿美元，比 2020 财年增长 35%。但他预计 2022 财年收入将下降 4%，至 3565 亿美元，比华尔街共识的 3795 亿美元低 230 亿美元。</blockquote> Hall provided some insights on this thinking in a new research note on Tuesday, with a particular focus on Apple’s ability to drive up average revenue per user. Hall writes that his broad view of Apple has been that stable revenue per user combined with “maximized” global user penetration is likely to result in slowing overall revenue growth, a view reflected in his fiscal 2022 forecast.<blockquote>霍尔在周二的一份新研究报告中对这种想法提出了一些见解，特别关注苹果提高每用户平均收入的能力。霍尔写道，他对苹果的大致看法是，稳定的每用户收入加上 “最大化 ”的全球用户渗透率可能会导致整体收入增长放缓，这一观点反映在他的 2022 财年预测中。</blockquote> But he noted that Covid provided multiple boosts to Apple’s ARPU, which he estimates will increase 21% over the two-year period through the end of 2021. (That reflects his estimate of 19% growth in ARPU in calendar 2021, after 2% growth in 2020.) The impressive growth stems from both surging&nbsp;iPhone, Mac, iPad and Wearables revenue, as well as strong services revenue, due in part to accelerated downloads from the App Store.<blockquote>但他指出，Covid 为苹果的 ARPU 带来了多重提升，他估计在截至 2021 年底的两年期间，ARPU 将增长 21%。（这反映了他对 2021 年 ARPU 增长 19% 的估计，而 2020 年增长了 2%。）令人印象深刻的增长源于 iPhone、Mac、iPad 和可穿戴设备收入的飙升，以及强劲的服务收入，部分原因是 App Store 的下载速度加快。</blockquote> But he sees that pattern reversing as spending patterns return to normal over time as the pandemic ebbs.<blockquote>但他认为，随着疫情的消退，支出模式随着时间的推移恢复正常，这种模式将会逆转。</blockquote> Hall concedes that it is hard to predict Apple user behavior in the short run. Covid has created some tough comps for Apple, driven by pull-forward in hardware demand, above-average App Store spending and a demonstrated preference for high-end versions of the iPhone and other hardware. He also says investors need to factor in high levels of consumer savings and the increasing value of Apple’s products, as well as more flexible work and study behavior. But he nonetheless thinks that in the long run, Apple will either need to drive up ARPU or accelerate subscriber growth trends to keep revenue growth above GDP growth.<blockquote>霍尔承认，短期内很难预测苹果用户的行为。在硬件需求的推动、高于平均水平的应用商店支出以及对高端版本 iPhone 和其他硬件的明显偏好的推动下，Covid 为苹果带来了一些艰难的竞争。他还表示，投资者需要考虑到消费者的高水平储蓄和苹果产品不断增长的价值，以及更灵活的工作和学习行为。但他仍然认为，从长远来看，苹果要么需要提高 ARPU，要么需要加速用户增长趋势，以保持收入增长高于 GDP 增长。</blockquote> For calendar 2022, Hall sees average revenue per user dropping about 12% on a year-over-year basis – due in large part to an expected moderation of hardware sales. He projects iPhone revenue will fall 12% in 2022, following 37% growth in 2021, with units down 3% and average selling prices down 9%. He sees 2022 revenue declines of 9% in Macs and 8% in iPads. And he sees services revenue growth moderating to 6%, from 24% growth in 2021, with a recovery in ad spending partially offsetting tough comparisons for the App Store.<blockquote>对于 2022 年日历，Hall 预计每用户平均收入将同比下降约 12%，这在很大程度上是由于硬件销售预期放缓。他预计，继 2021 年增长 37% 之后，2022 年 iPhone 收入将下降 12%，销量下降 3%，平均售价下降 9%。他预计 2022 年 Mac 收入将下降 9%，iPad 收入将下降 8%。他预计服务收入增长将从 2021 年的 24% 放缓至 6%，广告支出的复苏部分抵消了 App Store 的艰难比较。</blockquote> Hall also makes the case that investors would be better off looking at ARPU trends than trying to discern unit volumes, particularly given the company has not actually provided product unit data since the end of fiscal 2018. He thinks given the lack of hard data on units, “the data sources many investors rely on to forecast Apple’s revenue over time have become less accurate.”<blockquote>霍尔还认为，投资者最好关注 ARPU 趋势，而不是试图辨别单位数量，特别是考虑到该公司自 2018 财年末以来实际上没有提供产品单位数据。他认为，由于缺乏单位的硬数据，“随着时间的推移，许多投资者用来预测苹果收入的数据来源已经变得不那么准确了”。</blockquote> Apple shares are down a few pennies on Tuesday at $149.62, about $2 below their all-time intraday high at $151.68.<blockquote>苹果股价周二下跌几美分，至 149.62 美元，比盘中历史高点 151.68 美元低约 2 美元。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-price-arpu-51629835473?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_1\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-price-arpu-51629835473?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125218103","content_text":"Back in April, Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall backed away from his long-term bearish stance on Apple shares, raising his rating to Hold from Sell, and conceding that his previous view that iPhone sales would disappoint during the pandemic was “clearly wrong.” He also conceded at the time that both Mac and iPad sales had materially outperformed his forecasts.\nBut Hall still has some concerns about the outlook for Apple (ticker: AAPL), as reflected in his $140 target price, about $10 below the recent price. For one thing, he thinks Street estimates for next year are simply too high. Hall projects revenue for the September 2021 fiscal year of $371.7 billion, about $5 billion above the Street consensus, and up 35% from fiscal 2020. But he sees fiscal 2022 revenue falling 4% to $356.5 billion, a projection $23 billion below the Street consensus at $379.5 billion.\nHall provided some insights on this thinking in a new research note on Tuesday, with a particular focus on Apple’s ability to drive up average revenue per user. Hall writes that his broad view of Apple has been that stable revenue per user combined with “maximized” global user penetration is likely to result in slowing overall revenue growth, a view reflected in his fiscal 2022 forecast.\nBut he noted that Covid provided multiple boosts to Apple’s ARPU, which he estimates will increase 21% over the two-year period through the end of 2021. (That reflects his estimate of 19% growth in ARPU in calendar 2021, after 2% growth in 2020.) The impressive growth stems from both surging iPhone, Mac, iPad and Wearables revenue, as well as strong services revenue, due in part to accelerated downloads from the App Store.\nBut he sees that pattern reversing as spending patterns return to normal over time as the pandemic ebbs.\nHall concedes that it is hard to predict Apple user behavior in the short run. Covid has created some tough comps for Apple, driven by pull-forward in hardware demand, above-average App Store spending and a demonstrated preference for high-end versions of the iPhone and other hardware. He also says investors need to factor in high levels of consumer savings and the increasing value of Apple’s products, as well as more flexible work and study behavior. But he nonetheless thinks that in the long run, Apple will either need to drive up ARPU or accelerate subscriber growth trends to keep revenue growth above GDP growth.\nFor calendar 2022, Hall sees average revenue per user dropping about 12% on a year-over-year basis – due in large part to an expected moderation of hardware sales. He projects iPhone revenue will fall 12% in 2022, following 37% growth in 2021, with units down 3% and average selling prices down 9%. He sees 2022 revenue declines of 9% in Macs and 8% in iPads. And he sees services revenue growth moderating to 6%, from 24% growth in 2021, with a recovery in ad spending partially offsetting tough comparisons for the App Store.\nHall also makes the case that investors would be better off looking at ARPU trends than trying to discern unit volumes, particularly given the company has not actually provided product unit data since the end of fiscal 2018. He thinks given the lack of hard data on units, “the data sources many investors rely on to forecast Apple’s revenue over time have become less accurate.”\nApple shares are down a few pennies on Tuesday at $149.62, about $2 below their all-time intraday high at $151.68.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":545,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":13,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/837859361"}