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2021-08-25
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This Might Be the Most Important Metric If You Own Apple Stock<blockquote>如果您持有苹果股票，这可能是最重要的指标</blockquote>
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For one thing, he thinks Street estimates for next year are simply too high. Hall projects revenue for the September 2021 fiscal year of $371.7 billion, about $5 billion above the Street consensus, and up 35% from fiscal 2020. But he sees fiscal 2022 revenue falling 4% to $356.5 billion, a projection $23 billion below the Street consensus at $379.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但霍尔对苹果（股票代码：AAPL）的前景仍有一些担忧，这反映在他140美元的目标价上，比近期价格低约10美元。一方面，他认为华尔街对明年的预期实在太高了。霍尔预计2021年9月财年的收入为3717亿美元，比华尔街共识高出约50亿美元，比2020财年增长35%。但他预计2022财年收入将下降4%，至3565亿美元，比华尔街普遍预期的3795亿美元低230亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Hall provided some insights on this thinking in a new research note on Tuesday, with a particular focus on Apple’s ability to drive up average revenue per user. Hall writes that his broad view of Apple has been that stable revenue per user combined with “maximized” global user penetration is likely to result in slowing overall revenue growth, a view reflected in his fiscal 2022 forecast.</p><p><blockquote>霍尔在周二的一份新研究报告中就这一想法提供了一些见解，特别关注苹果提高每用户平均收入的能力。霍尔写道，他对苹果的总体看法是，稳定的每用户收入加上“最大化”的全球用户渗透率可能会导致整体收入增长放缓，这一观点反映在他的2022财年预测中。</blockquote></p><p> But he noted that Covid provided multiple boosts to Apple’s ARPU, which he estimates will increase 21% over the two-year period through the end of 2021. (That reflects his estimate of 19% growth in ARPU in calendar 2021, after 2% growth in 2020.) The impressive growth stems from both surging iPhone, Mac, iPad and Wearables revenue, as well as strong services revenue, due in part to accelerated downloads from the App Store.</p><p><blockquote>但他指出，新冠疫情为苹果的ARPU带来了多重提振，他估计到2021年底的两年内ARPU将增长21%。（这反映了他对2021年ARPU增长19%的估计，而2020年增长了2%。）令人印象深刻的增长源于iPhone、Mac、iPad和可穿戴设备收入的飙升，以及强劲的服务收入，部分原因是App Store的下载速度加快。</blockquote></p><p> But he sees that pattern reversing as spending patterns return to normal over time as the pandemic ebbs.</p><p><blockquote>但他认为，随着时间的推移，随着疫情的消退，支出模式将恢复正常，这种模式将会逆转。</blockquote></p><p> Hall concedes that it is hard to predict Apple user behavior in the short run. Covid has created some tough comps for Apple, driven by pull-forward in hardware demand, above-average App Store spending and a demonstrated preference for high-end versions of the iPhone and other hardware. He also says investors need to factor in high levels of consumer savings and the increasing value of Apple’s products, as well as more flexible work and study behavior. But he nonetheless thinks that in the long run, Apple will either need to drive up ARPU or accelerate subscriber growth trends to keep revenue growth above GDP growth.</p><p><blockquote>霍尔承认，短期内很难预测苹果用户的行为。由于硬件需求的拉动、高于平均水平的应用商店支出以及对高端版本iPhone和其他硬件的明显偏好，新冠疫情给苹果带来了一些严峻的挑战。他还表示，投资者需要考虑高水平的消费者储蓄和苹果产品价值的增加，以及更灵活的工作和学习行为。但他仍然认为，从长远来看，苹果要么需要提高ARPU，要么需要加速用户增长趋势，以保持收入增长高于GDP增长。</blockquote></p><p> For calendar 2022, Hall sees average revenue per user dropping about 12% on a year-over-year basis – due in large part to an expected moderation of hardware sales. He projects iPhone revenue will fall 12% in 2022, following 37% growth in 2021, with units down 3% and average selling prices down 9%. He sees 2022 revenue declines of 9% in Macs and 8% in iPads. And he sees services revenue growth moderating to 6%, from 24% growth in 2021, with a recovery in ad spending partially offsetting tough comparisons for the App Store.</p><p><blockquote>Hall预计2022年每用户平均收入将同比下降约12%，这在很大程度上是由于硬件销售预期放缓。他预计iPhone收入继2021年增长37%后，2022年将下降12%，销量下降3%，平均售价下降9%。他预计2022年Mac收入将下降9%，iPad收入将下降8%。他预计服务收入增长将从2021年的24%放缓至6%，广告支出的复苏部分抵消了App Store的艰难比较。</blockquote></p><p> Hall also makes the case that investors would be better off looking at ARPU trends than trying to discern unit volumes, particularly given the company has not actually provided product unit data since the end of fiscal 2018. He thinks given the lack of hard data on units, “the data sources many investors rely on to forecast Apple’s revenue over time have become less accurate.”</p><p><blockquote>霍尔还表示，投资者最好关注ARPU趋势，而不是试图辨别单位数量，特别是考虑到该公司自2018财年末以来实际上没有提供产品单位数据。他认为，鉴于缺乏单位硬数据，“许多投资者用来预测苹果收入的数据来源已经变得不太准确。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple shares are down a few pennies on Tuesday at $149.62, about $2 below their all-time intraday high at $151.68.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周二下跌几美分，至149.62美元，比历史盘中高点151.68美元低约2美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Might Be the Most Important Metric If You Own Apple Stock<blockquote>如果您持有苹果股票，这可能是最重要的指标</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Might Be the Most Important Metric If You Own Apple Stock<blockquote>如果您持有苹果股票，这可能是最重要的指标</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-25 15:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Back in April, Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall backed away from his long-term bearish stance on Apple shares, raising his rating to Hold from Sell, and conceding that his previous view that iPhone sales would disappoint during the pandemic was “clearly wrong.” He also conceded at the time that both Mac and iPad sales had materially outperformed his forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>早在4月份，高盛分析师Rod Hall就放弃了对苹果股票的长期看跌立场，将其评级从卖出上调至持有，并承认他之前关于iPhone销量将在疫情期间令人失望的观点“显然是错误的”。他当时还承认，Mac和iPad的销量都大大超出了他的预测。</blockquote></p><p> But Hall still has some concerns about the outlook for Apple (ticker: AAPL), as reflected in his $140 target price, about $10 below the recent price. For one thing, he thinks Street estimates for next year are simply too high. Hall projects revenue for the September 2021 fiscal year of $371.7 billion, about $5 billion above the Street consensus, and up 35% from fiscal 2020. But he sees fiscal 2022 revenue falling 4% to $356.5 billion, a projection $23 billion below the Street consensus at $379.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但霍尔对苹果（股票代码：AAPL）的前景仍有一些担忧，这反映在他140美元的目标价上，比近期价格低约10美元。一方面，他认为华尔街对明年的预期实在太高了。霍尔预计2021年9月财年的收入为3717亿美元，比华尔街共识高出约50亿美元，比2020财年增长35%。但他预计2022财年收入将下降4%，至3565亿美元，比华尔街普遍预期的3795亿美元低230亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Hall provided some insights on this thinking in a new research note on Tuesday, with a particular focus on Apple’s ability to drive up average revenue per user. Hall writes that his broad view of Apple has been that stable revenue per user combined with “maximized” global user penetration is likely to result in slowing overall revenue growth, a view reflected in his fiscal 2022 forecast.</p><p><blockquote>霍尔在周二的一份新研究报告中就这一想法提供了一些见解，特别关注苹果提高每用户平均收入的能力。霍尔写道，他对苹果的总体看法是，稳定的每用户收入加上“最大化”的全球用户渗透率可能会导致整体收入增长放缓，这一观点反映在他的2022财年预测中。</blockquote></p><p> But he noted that Covid provided multiple boosts to Apple’s ARPU, which he estimates will increase 21% over the two-year period through the end of 2021. (That reflects his estimate of 19% growth in ARPU in calendar 2021, after 2% growth in 2020.) The impressive growth stems from both surging iPhone, Mac, iPad and Wearables revenue, as well as strong services revenue, due in part to accelerated downloads from the App Store.</p><p><blockquote>但他指出，新冠疫情为苹果的ARPU带来了多重提振，他估计到2021年底的两年内ARPU将增长21%。（这反映了他对2021年ARPU增长19%的估计，而2020年增长了2%。）令人印象深刻的增长源于iPhone、Mac、iPad和可穿戴设备收入的飙升，以及强劲的服务收入，部分原因是App Store的下载速度加快。</blockquote></p><p> But he sees that pattern reversing as spending patterns return to normal over time as the pandemic ebbs.</p><p><blockquote>但他认为，随着时间的推移，随着疫情的消退，支出模式将恢复正常，这种模式将会逆转。</blockquote></p><p> Hall concedes that it is hard to predict Apple user behavior in the short run. Covid has created some tough comps for Apple, driven by pull-forward in hardware demand, above-average App Store spending and a demonstrated preference for high-end versions of the iPhone and other hardware. He also says investors need to factor in high levels of consumer savings and the increasing value of Apple’s products, as well as more flexible work and study behavior. But he nonetheless thinks that in the long run, Apple will either need to drive up ARPU or accelerate subscriber growth trends to keep revenue growth above GDP growth.</p><p><blockquote>霍尔承认，短期内很难预测苹果用户的行为。由于硬件需求的拉动、高于平均水平的应用商店支出以及对高端版本iPhone和其他硬件的明显偏好，新冠疫情给苹果带来了一些严峻的挑战。他还表示，投资者需要考虑高水平的消费者储蓄和苹果产品价值的增加，以及更灵活的工作和学习行为。但他仍然认为，从长远来看，苹果要么需要提高ARPU，要么需要加速用户增长趋势，以保持收入增长高于GDP增长。</blockquote></p><p> For calendar 2022, Hall sees average revenue per user dropping about 12% on a year-over-year basis – due in large part to an expected moderation of hardware sales. He projects iPhone revenue will fall 12% in 2022, following 37% growth in 2021, with units down 3% and average selling prices down 9%. He sees 2022 revenue declines of 9% in Macs and 8% in iPads. And he sees services revenue growth moderating to 6%, from 24% growth in 2021, with a recovery in ad spending partially offsetting tough comparisons for the App Store.</p><p><blockquote>Hall预计2022年每用户平均收入将同比下降约12%，这在很大程度上是由于硬件销售预期放缓。他预计iPhone收入继2021年增长37%后，2022年将下降12%，销量下降3%，平均售价下降9%。他预计2022年Mac收入将下降9%，iPad收入将下降8%。他预计服务收入增长将从2021年的24%放缓至6%，广告支出的复苏部分抵消了App Store的艰难比较。</blockquote></p><p> Hall also makes the case that investors would be better off looking at ARPU trends than trying to discern unit volumes, particularly given the company has not actually provided product unit data since the end of fiscal 2018. He thinks given the lack of hard data on units, “the data sources many investors rely on to forecast Apple’s revenue over time have become less accurate.”</p><p><blockquote>霍尔还表示，投资者最好关注ARPU趋势，而不是试图辨别单位数量，特别是考虑到该公司自2018财年末以来实际上没有提供产品单位数据。他认为，鉴于缺乏单位硬数据，“许多投资者用来预测苹果收入的数据来源已经变得不太准确。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple shares are down a few pennies on Tuesday at $149.62, about $2 below their all-time intraday high at $151.68.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周二下跌几美分，至149.62美元，比历史盘中高点151.68美元低约2美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-price-arpu-51629835473?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-price-arpu-51629835473?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125218103","content_text":"Back in April, Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall backed away from his long-term bearish stance on Apple shares, raising his rating to Hold from Sell, and conceding that his previous view that iPhone sales would disappoint during the pandemic was “clearly wrong.” He also conceded at the time that both Mac and iPad sales had materially outperformed his forecasts.\nBut Hall still has some concerns about the outlook for Apple (ticker: AAPL), as reflected in his $140 target price, about $10 below the recent price. For one thing, he thinks Street estimates for next year are simply too high. Hall projects revenue for the September 2021 fiscal year of $371.7 billion, about $5 billion above the Street consensus, and up 35% from fiscal 2020. But he sees fiscal 2022 revenue falling 4% to $356.5 billion, a projection $23 billion below the Street consensus at $379.5 billion.\nHall provided some insights on this thinking in a new research note on Tuesday, with a particular focus on Apple’s ability to drive up average revenue per user. Hall writes that his broad view of Apple has been that stable revenue per user combined with “maximized” global user penetration is likely to result in slowing overall revenue growth, a view reflected in his fiscal 2022 forecast.\nBut he noted that Covid provided multiple boosts to Apple’s ARPU, which he estimates will increase 21% over the two-year period through the end of 2021. (That reflects his estimate of 19% growth in ARPU in calendar 2021, after 2% growth in 2020.) The impressive growth stems from both surging iPhone, Mac, iPad and Wearables revenue, as well as strong services revenue, due in part to accelerated downloads from the App Store.\nBut he sees that pattern reversing as spending patterns return to normal over time as the pandemic ebbs.\nHall concedes that it is hard to predict Apple user behavior in the short run. Covid has created some tough comps for Apple, driven by pull-forward in hardware demand, above-average App Store spending and a demonstrated preference for high-end versions of the iPhone and other hardware. He also says investors need to factor in high levels of consumer savings and the increasing value of Apple’s products, as well as more flexible work and study behavior. But he nonetheless thinks that in the long run, Apple will either need to drive up ARPU or accelerate subscriber growth trends to keep revenue growth above GDP growth.\nFor calendar 2022, Hall sees average revenue per user dropping about 12% on a year-over-year basis – due in large part to an expected moderation of hardware sales. He projects iPhone revenue will fall 12% in 2022, following 37% growth in 2021, with units down 3% and average selling prices down 9%. He sees 2022 revenue declines of 9% in Macs and 8% in iPads. And he sees services revenue growth moderating to 6%, from 24% growth in 2021, with a recovery in ad spending partially offsetting tough comparisons for the App Store.\nHall also makes the case that investors would be better off looking at ARPU trends than trying to discern unit volumes, particularly given the company has not actually provided product unit data since the end of fiscal 2018. He thinks given the lack of hard data on units, “the data sources many investors rely on to forecast Apple’s revenue over time have become less accurate.”\nApple shares are down a few pennies on Tuesday at $149.62, about $2 below their all-time intraday high at $151.68.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":503,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/837844117"}
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