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2021-08-23
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Why the Federal Reserve Canceling Its In-Person Jackson Hole Retreat Matters<blockquote>为什么美联储取消杰克逊霍尔亲自务虚会很重要</blockquote>
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The move comes as infections rise nationwide and after Teton County, Wyo., where dozens of central bankers, policymakers and economists normally gather for the event, changed its transmission risk level to “high.”</p><p><blockquote>堪萨斯城联邦储备银行在其网站上的一份声明中表示，“由于最近Covid-19健康风险水平上升”，其年度经济政策会议将于8月27日星期五虚拟召开。此举出台之际，全国范围内的感染人数不断上升，怀俄明州提顿县（通常有数十名央行行长、政策制定者和经济学家聚集在那里参加活动）将其传播风险级别改为“高”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s decision to cancel its own in-person event is representative of a broader pullback in economic activity as virus concerns mount. Fresh data from the Transportation Security Administration show a slowdown in travel, with the number of people passing through TSA checkpoints down 10% on Friday from a recent high in mid-July. Meanwhile, data from restaurant-booker OpenTable reflect a renewed decline in reservations. Economists at Oxford Economics say their recovery tracker, a mashup of about two dozen indicators, has stalled as consumers become more cautious and overall mobility declines.</p><p><blockquote>美联储取消自己的现场活动的决定代表了随着对病毒的担忧加剧，经济活动将出现更广泛的回落。运输安全管理局的最新数据显示，旅行放缓，周五通过TSA检查站的人数较7月中旬的近期高点下降了10%。与此同时，餐厅预订商OpenTable的数据反映出预订量再次下降。牛津经济研究院的经济学家表示，随着消费者变得更加谨慎和整体流动性下降，他们的复苏跟踪系统（由大约两打指标组成）已经陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s decision is also a real-time reflection of how officials view the economy’s biggest wildcard. Since the pandemic’s onset, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the path of the economy will depend on the course of the virus.In his press conference last Wednesday, he said successive Covid waves have had diminishing economic impact, but he acknowledged the risk posed by the Delta variant and future mutations.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的决定也实时反映了官员们如何看待经济最大的通配符。自疫情爆发以来，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，经济的发展轨迹将取决于病毒的进程。在上周三的新闻发布会上，他表示，连续的新冠疫情对经济的影响正在减弱，但他承认德尔塔变异毒株和未来突变带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> “As long as Covid is running loose out there, as long as there’s time and space for the development of new strains, no one’s really finally safe,” Powell said, noting that any pull back in activity, from indoor dining to school openings, may weigh on the economy. “We don’t have a strong sense of how that might work out, so we’ll just be monitoring it carefully,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔说：“只要新冠病毒在那里蔓延，只要有时间和空间来开发新毒株，没有人会真正安全。”他指出，从室内餐饮到学校开学，任何活动的减少都可能会给经济带来压力。“我们不太清楚这可能会如何发展，所以我们只会仔细监控，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> The shift to a virtual symposium is having an effect, if small, on the local economy. Cory Carlson, regional director of marketing at the Four Seasons Resort and Residences in Jackson Hole, said his hotel has had a slew of cancellations due to the Fed’s change of plans. “This definitely has a short-term impact on the local economy,” he says, adding that the event typically brings a swarm of symposium attendees and journalists conducting interviews and broadcasting speeches. A desk worker at the Parkway Inn of Jackson Hole, meanwhile, said guests pulled reservations early last week as Covid cases swung higher.</p><p><blockquote>向虚拟研讨会的转变对当地经济产生了影响，尽管很小。杰克逊霍尔四季度假村和住宅的区域营销总监科里·卡尔森表示，由于美联储改变计划，他的酒店已有大量取消预订。“这肯定会对当地经济产生短期影响，”他说，并补充说，该活动通常会吸引大量研讨会与会者和记者进行采访和广播演讲。与此同时，杰克逊霍尔百汇酒店(Parkway Inn)的一名前台工作人员表示，随着Covid病例激增，上周早些时候，客人取消了预订。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time,the change of plans gives investors a dovish clue ahead of Powell’s speech on Friday morning.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在鲍威尔周五上午发表讲话之前，计划的改变给了投资者一个鸽派线索。</blockquote></p><p> Investors and economists across Wall Street have for months had an eye toward the Jackson Hole summit for an update on the Fed’s plans to begin winding down the emergency bond-buying program it launched in response to the pandemic. Minutes released last week from the Fed’s July meeting showed officials started debating when and how to taper the $120 billion in monthly Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases, though officials were split on when to begin reducing those purchases and how aggressively they should do so.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来，华尔街的投资者和经济学家一直在关注杰克逊霍尔峰会，以了解美联储计划开始逐步减少为应对疫情而推出的紧急债券购买计划的最新情况。上周公布的美联储7月会议纪要显示，官员们开始讨论何时以及如何缩减每月1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券购买量，尽管官员们在何时开始减少这些购买量以及应该以多大的力度上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> It is now clear that in the weeks since the July policy meeting, officials have grown more skittish about the recovery. Central bankers already inclined to delay purchase reductions are likely to argue increasing infections and hospitalization rates warrant further patience, while those on the fence have a reason to join the dovish camp.Even Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan–the first official to publicly say the Fed should start cutting asset purchases sooner than later–recently said he may change his view if the Delta variant stalls the economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>现在很明显，自7月政策会议以来的几周里，官员们对经济复苏变得更加不安。已经倾向于推迟削减购买的央行行长可能会辩称，不断上升的感染率和住院率值得进一步保持耐心，而那些持观望态度的人有理由加入鸽派阵营。就连达拉斯联储主席Robert Kaplan——第一位公开表示美联储应尽早开始削减资产购买的官员——最近也表示，如果德尔塔变异毒株阻碍经济复苏，他可能会改变观点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard to argue rising Covid cases aren’t already affecting the recovery when policy makers themselves are scrapping travel plans. Investors worried about an official September taper announcement should find some relief in the Fed’s choice to hold a virtual Jackson Hole–though the flipside is a bearish message, inadvertent or otherwise, on the state of the economy itself.</p><p><blockquote>当政策制定者自己取消旅行计划时，很难说新冠病例的增加没有影响经济复苏。担心9月份正式宣布缩减规模的投资者应该会从美联储选择持有虚拟杰克逊洞中找到一些缓解——尽管另一方面是对经济本身状况的看跌信息，无论是无意还是无意。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the Federal Reserve Canceling Its In-Person Jackson Hole Retreat Matters<blockquote>为什么美联储取消杰克逊霍尔亲自务虚会很重要</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the Federal Reserve Canceling Its In-Person Jackson Hole Retreat Matters<blockquote>为什么美联储取消杰克逊霍尔亲自务虚会很重要</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 15:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When the Federal Reserve on Friday scrapped in-person plans for its Jackson Hole symposium, it sent a signal investors should heed.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储周五取消杰克逊霍尔研讨会的亲自计划时，它发出了投资者应该注意的信号。</blockquote></p><p> “Due to the recently-elevated Covid-19 health risk level,” the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank said in a statement on its website, its annual economic policy conference will convene virtually on Friday, August 27. The move comes as infections rise nationwide and after Teton County, Wyo., where dozens of central bankers, policymakers and economists normally gather for the event, changed its transmission risk level to “high.”</p><p><blockquote>堪萨斯城联邦储备银行在其网站上的一份声明中表示，“由于最近Covid-19健康风险水平上升”，其年度经济政策会议将于8月27日星期五虚拟召开。此举出台之际，全国范围内的感染人数不断上升，怀俄明州提顿县（通常有数十名央行行长、政策制定者和经济学家聚集在那里参加活动）将其传播风险级别改为“高”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s decision to cancel its own in-person event is representative of a broader pullback in economic activity as virus concerns mount. Fresh data from the Transportation Security Administration show a slowdown in travel, with the number of people passing through TSA checkpoints down 10% on Friday from a recent high in mid-July. Meanwhile, data from restaurant-booker OpenTable reflect a renewed decline in reservations. Economists at Oxford Economics say their recovery tracker, a mashup of about two dozen indicators, has stalled as consumers become more cautious and overall mobility declines.</p><p><blockquote>美联储取消自己的现场活动的决定代表了随着对病毒的担忧加剧，经济活动将出现更广泛的回落。运输安全管理局的最新数据显示，旅行放缓，周五通过TSA检查站的人数较7月中旬的近期高点下降了10%。与此同时，餐厅预订商OpenTable的数据反映出预订量再次下降。牛津经济研究院的经济学家表示，随着消费者变得更加谨慎和整体流动性下降，他们的复苏跟踪系统（由大约两打指标组成）已经陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s decision is also a real-time reflection of how officials view the economy’s biggest wildcard. Since the pandemic’s onset, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the path of the economy will depend on the course of the virus.In his press conference last Wednesday, he said successive Covid waves have had diminishing economic impact, but he acknowledged the risk posed by the Delta variant and future mutations.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的决定也实时反映了官员们如何看待经济最大的通配符。自疫情爆发以来，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，经济的发展轨迹将取决于病毒的进程。在上周三的新闻发布会上，他表示，连续的新冠疫情对经济的影响正在减弱，但他承认德尔塔变异毒株和未来突变带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> “As long as Covid is running loose out there, as long as there’s time and space for the development of new strains, no one’s really finally safe,” Powell said, noting that any pull back in activity, from indoor dining to school openings, may weigh on the economy. “We don’t have a strong sense of how that might work out, so we’ll just be monitoring it carefully,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔说：“只要新冠病毒在那里蔓延，只要有时间和空间来开发新毒株，没有人会真正安全。”他指出，从室内餐饮到学校开学，任何活动的减少都可能会给经济带来压力。“我们不太清楚这可能会如何发展，所以我们只会仔细监控，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> The shift to a virtual symposium is having an effect, if small, on the local economy. Cory Carlson, regional director of marketing at the Four Seasons Resort and Residences in Jackson Hole, said his hotel has had a slew of cancellations due to the Fed’s change of plans. “This definitely has a short-term impact on the local economy,” he says, adding that the event typically brings a swarm of symposium attendees and journalists conducting interviews and broadcasting speeches. A desk worker at the Parkway Inn of Jackson Hole, meanwhile, said guests pulled reservations early last week as Covid cases swung higher.</p><p><blockquote>向虚拟研讨会的转变对当地经济产生了影响，尽管很小。杰克逊霍尔四季度假村和住宅的区域营销总监科里·卡尔森表示，由于美联储改变计划，他的酒店已有大量取消预订。“这肯定会对当地经济产生短期影响，”他说，并补充说，该活动通常会吸引大量研讨会与会者和记者进行采访和广播演讲。与此同时，杰克逊霍尔百汇酒店(Parkway Inn)的一名前台工作人员表示，随着Covid病例激增，上周早些时候，客人取消了预订。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time,the change of plans gives investors a dovish clue ahead of Powell’s speech on Friday morning.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在鲍威尔周五上午发表讲话之前，计划的改变给了投资者一个鸽派线索。</blockquote></p><p> Investors and economists across Wall Street have for months had an eye toward the Jackson Hole summit for an update on the Fed’s plans to begin winding down the emergency bond-buying program it launched in response to the pandemic. Minutes released last week from the Fed’s July meeting showed officials started debating when and how to taper the $120 billion in monthly Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases, though officials were split on when to begin reducing those purchases and how aggressively they should do so.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来，华尔街的投资者和经济学家一直在关注杰克逊霍尔峰会，以了解美联储计划开始逐步减少为应对疫情而推出的紧急债券购买计划的最新情况。上周公布的美联储7月会议纪要显示，官员们开始讨论何时以及如何缩减每月1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券购买量，尽管官员们在何时开始减少这些购买量以及应该以多大的力度上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> It is now clear that in the weeks since the July policy meeting, officials have grown more skittish about the recovery. Central bankers already inclined to delay purchase reductions are likely to argue increasing infections and hospitalization rates warrant further patience, while those on the fence have a reason to join the dovish camp.Even Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan–the first official to publicly say the Fed should start cutting asset purchases sooner than later–recently said he may change his view if the Delta variant stalls the economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>现在很明显，自7月政策会议以来的几周里，官员们对经济复苏变得更加不安。已经倾向于推迟削减购买的央行行长可能会辩称，不断上升的感染率和住院率值得进一步保持耐心，而那些持观望态度的人有理由加入鸽派阵营。就连达拉斯联储主席Robert Kaplan——第一位公开表示美联储应尽早开始削减资产购买的官员——最近也表示，如果德尔塔变异毒株阻碍经济复苏，他可能会改变观点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard to argue rising Covid cases aren’t already affecting the recovery when policy makers themselves are scrapping travel plans. Investors worried about an official September taper announcement should find some relief in the Fed’s choice to hold a virtual Jackson Hole–though the flipside is a bearish message, inadvertent or otherwise, on the state of the economy itself.</p><p><blockquote>当政策制定者自己取消旅行计划时，很难说新冠病例的增加没有影响经济复苏。担心9月份正式宣布缩减规模的投资者应该会从美联储选择持有虚拟杰克逊洞中找到一些缓解——尽管另一方面是对经济本身状况的看跌信息，无论是无意还是无意。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/federal-reserve-jackson-hole-retreat-51629577071?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/federal-reserve-jackson-hole-retreat-51629577071?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192946234","content_text":"When the Federal Reserve on Friday scrapped in-person plans for its Jackson Hole symposium, it sent a signal investors should heed.\n“Due to the recently-elevated Covid-19 health risk level,” the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank said in a statement on its website, its annual economic policy conference will convene virtually on Friday, August 27. The move comes as infections rise nationwide and after Teton County, Wyo., where dozens of central bankers, policymakers and economists normally gather for the event, changed its transmission risk level to “high.”\nThe Fed’s decision to cancel its own in-person event is representative of a broader pullback in economic activity as virus concerns mount. Fresh data from the Transportation Security Administration show a slowdown in travel, with the number of people passing through TSA checkpoints down 10% on Friday from a recent high in mid-July. Meanwhile, data from restaurant-booker OpenTable reflect a renewed decline in reservations. Economists at Oxford Economics say their recovery tracker, a mashup of about two dozen indicators, has stalled as consumers become more cautious and overall mobility declines.\nThe Fed’s decision is also a real-time reflection of how officials view the economy’s biggest wildcard. Since the pandemic’s onset, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the path of the economy will depend on the course of the virus.In his press conference last Wednesday, he said successive Covid waves have had diminishing economic impact, but he acknowledged the risk posed by the Delta variant and future mutations.\n\n“As long as Covid is running loose out there, as long as there’s time and space for the development of new strains, no one’s really finally safe,” Powell said, noting that any pull back in activity, from indoor dining to school openings, may weigh on the economy. “We don’t have a strong sense of how that might work out, so we’ll just be monitoring it carefully,” he said.\nThe shift to a virtual symposium is having an effect, if small, on the local economy. Cory Carlson, regional director of marketing at the Four Seasons Resort and Residences in Jackson Hole, said his hotel has had a slew of cancellations due to the Fed’s change of plans. “This definitely has a short-term impact on the local economy,” he says, adding that the event typically brings a swarm of symposium attendees and journalists conducting interviews and broadcasting speeches. A desk worker at the Parkway Inn of Jackson Hole, meanwhile, said guests pulled reservations early last week as Covid cases swung higher.\nAt the same time,the change of plans gives investors a dovish clue ahead of Powell’s speech on Friday morning.\nInvestors and economists across Wall Street have for months had an eye toward the Jackson Hole summit for an update on the Fed’s plans to begin winding down the emergency bond-buying program it launched in response to the pandemic. Minutes released last week from the Fed’s July meeting showed officials started debating when and how to taper the $120 billion in monthly Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases, though officials were split on when to begin reducing those purchases and how aggressively they should do so.\nIt is now clear that in the weeks since the July policy meeting, officials have grown more skittish about the recovery. Central bankers already inclined to delay purchase reductions are likely to argue increasing infections and hospitalization rates warrant further patience, while those on the fence have a reason to join the dovish camp.Even Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan–the first official to publicly say the Fed should start cutting asset purchases sooner than later–recently said he may change his view if the Delta variant stalls the economic recovery.\nIt’s hard to argue rising Covid cases aren’t already affecting the recovery when policy makers themselves are scrapping travel plans. Investors worried about an official September taper announcement should find some relief in the Fed’s choice to hold a virtual Jackson Hole–though the flipside is a bearish message, inadvertent or otherwise, on the state of the economy itself.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2898,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/835879528"}
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