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2021-08-23
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Amazon: The Market Is Overlooking This Fundamental Trend<blockquote>亚马逊：市场忽视了这一基本趋势</blockquote>
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The market seems to be focusing on the e-commerce slowdown despite having another potential trillion-dollar business hiding within the company. We are referring to Amazon's real money maker, AWS which we covered recently in a previous article. We suggest taking a look if you're interested in learning more about AWS and why we think it's a major growth catalyst for the company. In addition, we cover the main risks involved in holding Amazon's stock.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）在预测第三季度增长放缓后，最近出现了大幅回调。尽管公司内部隐藏着另一个潜在的万亿美元业务，但市场似乎正关注电子商务放缓。我们指的是亚马逊真正的赚钱者AWS，我们最近在上一篇文章中提到了它。如果您有兴趣了解有关 AWS 的更多信息，以及为什么我们认为它是该公司的主要增长催化剂，我们建议您看看。此外，我们还涵盖了持有亚马逊股票所涉及的主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> However, today's article will not be focusing on AWS. Instead, we want to talk about what the market is potentially missing from the recentearnings call. In addition, we will take a look at Amazon's new plan to open up department stores and provide an updated valuation with recent numbers.</p><p><blockquote>然而，今天的文章不会关注AWS。相反，我们想谈谈市场在最近的财报看涨期权中可能遗漏了什么。此外，我们将了解亚马逊开设百货商店的新计划，并提供最新数据的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What the Market Overlooked</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场忽略了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> This is all part of a multiyear investment cycle for us. Unit volumes, while obviously growing at lower rates off last year's large comp, continue to remain high, and we see strong demand for FBA [fulfilled by Amazon] and third-party sellers. These are the words of CFO Brian Olsavsky. The company has drastically increased its Capex spending in recent quarters.</p><p><blockquote>这都是我们多年投资周期的一部分。单位销量虽然增长率明显低于去年的大幅上涨，但继续保持高位，我们看到对 FBA（由亚马逊履行）和第三方卖家的强劲需求。这是首席财务官布莱恩·奥尔萨夫斯基的话。该公司最近几个季度大幅增加了资本支出。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eda04fe155c341aadb815b88e4de1562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"52\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Finbox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Finbox</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see from the image above, spending in the last 6 months has almost doubled compared to the same period last year. When comparing the most recent 4 quarters to the earlier 4 quarters pictured above, we can see that capital expenditures more than doubled.</p><p><blockquote>从上图可以看出，过去6个月的支出几乎比去年同期翻了一番。当将最近的 4 个季度与上图中的前 4 个季度进行比较时，我们可以看到资本支出增加了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> An interesting trend emerges when we compare the increase in capital expenditures and the revenue growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>当我们比较资本支出的增长和收入增长率时，会出现一个有趣的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf978e4997d829edb4d86aff5d90b5d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"447\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can see that Amazon's revenue growth tends to accelerate when capital expenditures are increased. Both metrics move almost in tandem with the exception of the period around 2006 where the benefits from the capital expenditures lagged a little. This makes sense because sometimes the benefits from investments might take a little longer to be realized.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，当资本支出增加时，亚马逊的收入增长往往会加速。这两个指标几乎是同步变化的，只有 2006 年左右的时期例外，当时资本支出的收益略有滞后。这是有道理的，因为有时投资的好处可能需要更长的时间才能实现。</blockquote></p><p> This trend also appears when comparing revenue growth to increases in SG&A:</p><p><blockquote>当将收入增长与 SG&A 的增长进行比较时，也会出现这种趋势：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53278401fd6a72576b4693b8782bfde3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Finbox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Finbox</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Obviously, as spending increases on facilities, the company also needs to hire new employees to operate the facilities.</p><p><blockquote>显然，随着设施支出的增加，公司也需要雇佣新员工来运营设施。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, while growth is expected to \"slow\" because of difficult comps, it's very reasonable to assume it will once again accelerate as the company invests to improve its fulfillment centers and logistics:</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管由于竞争困难，预计增长将“放缓”，但有理由假设，随着公司投资改善其履行中心和物流，增长将再次加速：</blockquote></p><p> First, we are adding a lot of capacity. If you step back, the Amazon fulfilled unit volume, so that's the units coming out of our fulfillment centers both retail and FBA have doubled in the past 2 years. And the AMZL, the delivery arm of our business, has more than doubled in that time period. So, you can see there's been very strong multiyear demand here that we're still catching up with from last year. As the CFO stated in the quote above, Amazon is still trying to catch up with the demand that it is experiencing. This also boosts our belief that revenue will accelerate after the tough comps pass. Once Amazon catches up to the demand, it'll be able to meet it more efficiently and deliver more packages resulting in higher revenues.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们正在增加大量的产能。如果你退后一步，亚马逊履行的单位量，所以这就是我们零售和FBA履行中心的单位量在过去两年中翻了一番。我们业务的交付部门 AMZL 在此期间增长了一倍多。因此，您可以看到这里的多年需求非常强劲，我们仍在追赶去年。正如首席财务官在上面的引文中所说，亚马逊仍在努力满足其正在经历的需求。这也增强了我们的信心，即在艰难的竞争结束后，收入将加速增长。一旦亚马逊赶上需求，它将能够更有效地满足需求，并交付更多的包裹，从而带来更高的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon to Open Department Stores</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊将开设百货商店</b></blockquote></p><p> After disrupting the retail industry for decades and driving some once-prominent brick-and-mortar department stores to bankruptcy, Amazon has now decided to open up its own. The company already has some physical locations which include Whole Foods and other small stores for books and groceries.</p><p><blockquote>在扰乱零售业几十年并迫使一些曾经著名的实体百货商店破产后，亚马逊现在决定开设自己的百货商店。该公司已经有一些实体店，包括全食超市和其他小型书店和杂货店。</blockquote></p><p> The new retail spaces will be around30,000 square feet, smaller than most department stores, which typically occupy about 100,000 square feet, and will offer items from top consumer brands. The stores will have a footprint similar to scaled-down formats that Nordstrom(NYSE:JWN), and other department-store chains have begun opening.</p><p><blockquote>新的零售空间将约为30,000平方英尺，小于大多数百货商店，后者通常占地约100,000平方英尺，并将提供顶级消费品牌的商品。这些商店的占地面积将类似于 Nordstrom（纽约证券交易所股票代码：JWN）和其他百货连锁店已经开始开业的缩小形式。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Some might be wondering whether or not venturing into physical locations makes sense for Amazon. We believe it does because most shopping is still done in person.</p><p><blockquote>有些人可能想知道进军实体地点对亚马逊来说是否有意义。我们相信确实如此，因为大多数购物仍然是亲自完成的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d54bb0b484ee7be14cf479e672ce6a93\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In fact, over 80% of Americans still shop in person as per the image above. E-commerce has made things much more convenient and is still expected to see strong growth in the long term. However, it's unlikely to outright kill brick-and-mortar altogether. Instead, e-commerce has raised the bar for physical stores where customer experience is now a crucial part of success. In addition, e-commerce still does have some limitations. There are times where people want or need a product right away and can't wait for it to be shipped.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，超过80%的美国人仍然亲自购物，如上图所示。电子商务让事情变得更加方便，从长远来看，预计仍将出现强劲增长。然而，它不太可能完全彻底杀死实体和砂浆。相反，电子商务提高了实体店的标准，客户体验现在是成功的关键部分。此外，电子商务仍然存在一些局限性。有时候，人们马上想要或需要一个产品，迫不及待地想让它发货。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, Amazon is sitting on a huge pile of data that gives it a great insight into what customers want at different locations. This obviously increases the chances that the stores will be successful. Although it likely won't make a significant impact on revenue anytime soon, it makes sense for Amazon to venture into this space in order to complement its online marketplace.</p><p><blockquote>此外，亚马逊坐拥大量数据，这使其能够深入了解不同地点的客户想要什么。这显然增加了商店成功的机会。尽管它可能不会很快对收入产生重大影响，但亚马逊冒险进入这一领域以补充其在线市场是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> To value Amazon, we will use a 5-year DCF with growth and margin estimates from analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们将使用 5 年期 DCF 以及分析师的增长和利润率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Our Assumptions:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们的假设：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Risk-free rate: 1.26%</li> <li>Equity risk premium: 4.7%</li> <li>Beta: 1.14</li> <li>Equity cost: 6.67%</li> <li>Tax rate: 21.00%</li> <li>Cost of debt: 1.60%</li> <li>Cost of debt after-tax: 1.26%</li> <li>Weight of equity: 93%</li> <li>Weight of debt: 7%</li> <li>WACC: 6.29%</li> <li>Perpetual growth: 2.25%</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1194b2a13f120cc88ecc999422035b14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data by Finbox</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>无风险利率：1.26%</li><li>股权风险溢价：4.7%</li><li>测试版：1.14</li><li>股权成本：6.67%</li><li>税率：21.00%</li><li>债务成本：1.60%</li><li>税后债务成本：1.26%</li><li>权益权重：93%</li><li>债务权重：7%</li><li>WACC：6.29%</li><li>永久增长：2.25%</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Finbox 数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, analysts expect revenue to continue declining over the next 5 years. However, Amazon would still have a 22.8% upside in this scenario under the current low-interest-rate market conditions. Therefore, if history is any indication, and revenue does in fact accelerate, then the upside should be even higher.</p><p><blockquote>如您所见，分析师预计未来 5 年收入将继续下降。然而，在当前的低利率市场条件下，亚马逊在这种情况下仍有22.8%的上涨空间。因此，如果历史有任何迹象表明，并且收入确实在加速增长，那么上涨空间应该会更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Although we believe the market is overlooking the impact that Amazon's increased capital expenditures tend to have, the company is still trading at a discount to its intrinsic value based on what analysts are expecting. Therefore, we remain bullish on Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我们认为市场忽视了亚马逊增加资本支出往往会产生的影响，但根据分析师的预期，该公司的交易价格仍然低于其内在价值。因此，我们仍然看好亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: The Market Is Overlooking This Fundamental Trend<blockquote>亚马逊：市场忽视了这一基本趋势</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: The Market Is Overlooking This Fundamental Trend<blockquote>亚马逊：市场忽视了这一基本趋势</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 19:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Amazon's post-earnings sell-off was an overreaction.</li> <li>Amazon has dramatically increased its capital expenditures.</li> <li>The company is trading at a discount to its intrinsic value.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d65e4b792c56411dceb22176b840272\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊财报后的抛售是一种过度反应。</li><li>亚马逊大幅增加了资本支出。</li><li>该公司的交易价格低于其内在价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has seen a hefty pullback recently after guiding for slower growth in the third quarter. The market seems to be focusing on the e-commerce slowdown despite having another potential trillion-dollar business hiding within the company. We are referring to Amazon's real money maker, AWS which we covered recently in a previous article. We suggest taking a look if you're interested in learning more about AWS and why we think it's a major growth catalyst for the company. In addition, we cover the main risks involved in holding Amazon's stock.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）在预测第三季度增长放缓后，最近出现了大幅回调。尽管公司内部隐藏着另一个潜在的万亿美元业务，但市场似乎正关注电子商务放缓。我们指的是亚马逊真正的赚钱者AWS，我们最近在上一篇文章中提到了它。如果您有兴趣了解有关 AWS 的更多信息，以及为什么我们认为它是该公司的主要增长催化剂，我们建议您看看。此外，我们还涵盖了持有亚马逊股票所涉及的主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> However, today's article will not be focusing on AWS. Instead, we want to talk about what the market is potentially missing from the recentearnings call. In addition, we will take a look at Amazon's new plan to open up department stores and provide an updated valuation with recent numbers.</p><p><blockquote>然而，今天的文章不会关注AWS。相反，我们想谈谈市场在最近的财报看涨期权中可能遗漏了什么。此外，我们将了解亚马逊开设百货商店的新计划，并提供最新数据的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What the Market Overlooked</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场忽略了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> This is all part of a multiyear investment cycle for us. Unit volumes, while obviously growing at lower rates off last year's large comp, continue to remain high, and we see strong demand for FBA [fulfilled by Amazon] and third-party sellers. These are the words of CFO Brian Olsavsky. The company has drastically increased its Capex spending in recent quarters.</p><p><blockquote>这都是我们多年投资周期的一部分。单位销量虽然增长率明显低于去年的大幅上涨，但继续保持高位，我们看到对 FBA（由亚马逊履行）和第三方卖家的强劲需求。这是首席财务官布莱恩·奥尔萨夫斯基的话。该公司最近几个季度大幅增加了资本支出。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eda04fe155c341aadb815b88e4de1562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"52\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Finbox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Finbox</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see from the image above, spending in the last 6 months has almost doubled compared to the same period last year. When comparing the most recent 4 quarters to the earlier 4 quarters pictured above, we can see that capital expenditures more than doubled.</p><p><blockquote>从上图可以看出，过去6个月的支出几乎比去年同期翻了一番。当将最近的 4 个季度与上图中的前 4 个季度进行比较时，我们可以看到资本支出增加了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> An interesting trend emerges when we compare the increase in capital expenditures and the revenue growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>当我们比较资本支出的增长和收入增长率时，会出现一个有趣的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf978e4997d829edb4d86aff5d90b5d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"447\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can see that Amazon's revenue growth tends to accelerate when capital expenditures are increased. Both metrics move almost in tandem with the exception of the period around 2006 where the benefits from the capital expenditures lagged a little. This makes sense because sometimes the benefits from investments might take a little longer to be realized.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，当资本支出增加时，亚马逊的收入增长往往会加速。这两个指标几乎是同步变化的，只有 2006 年左右的时期例外，当时资本支出的收益略有滞后。这是有道理的，因为有时投资的好处可能需要更长的时间才能实现。</blockquote></p><p> This trend also appears when comparing revenue growth to increases in SG&A:</p><p><blockquote>当将收入增长与 SG&A 的增长进行比较时，也会出现这种趋势：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53278401fd6a72576b4693b8782bfde3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Finbox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Finbox</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Obviously, as spending increases on facilities, the company also needs to hire new employees to operate the facilities.</p><p><blockquote>显然，随着设施支出的增加，公司也需要雇佣新员工来运营设施。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, while growth is expected to \"slow\" because of difficult comps, it's very reasonable to assume it will once again accelerate as the company invests to improve its fulfillment centers and logistics:</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管由于竞争困难，预计增长将“放缓”，但有理由假设，随着公司投资改善其履行中心和物流，增长将再次加速：</blockquote></p><p> First, we are adding a lot of capacity. If you step back, the Amazon fulfilled unit volume, so that's the units coming out of our fulfillment centers both retail and FBA have doubled in the past 2 years. And the AMZL, the delivery arm of our business, has more than doubled in that time period. So, you can see there's been very strong multiyear demand here that we're still catching up with from last year. As the CFO stated in the quote above, Amazon is still trying to catch up with the demand that it is experiencing. This also boosts our belief that revenue will accelerate after the tough comps pass. Once Amazon catches up to the demand, it'll be able to meet it more efficiently and deliver more packages resulting in higher revenues.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们正在增加大量的产能。如果你退后一步，亚马逊履行的单位量，所以这就是我们零售和FBA履行中心的单位量在过去两年中翻了一番。我们业务的交付部门 AMZL 在此期间增长了一倍多。因此，您可以看到这里的多年需求非常强劲，我们仍在追赶去年。正如首席财务官在上面的引文中所说，亚马逊仍在努力满足其正在经历的需求。这也增强了我们的信心，即在艰难的竞争结束后，收入将加速增长。一旦亚马逊赶上需求，它将能够更有效地满足需求，并交付更多的包裹，从而带来更高的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon to Open Department Stores</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊将开设百货商店</b></blockquote></p><p> After disrupting the retail industry for decades and driving some once-prominent brick-and-mortar department stores to bankruptcy, Amazon has now decided to open up its own. The company already has some physical locations which include Whole Foods and other small stores for books and groceries.</p><p><blockquote>在扰乱零售业几十年并迫使一些曾经著名的实体百货商店破产后，亚马逊现在决定开设自己的百货商店。该公司已经有一些实体店，包括全食超市和其他小型书店和杂货店。</blockquote></p><p> The new retail spaces will be around30,000 square feet, smaller than most department stores, which typically occupy about 100,000 square feet, and will offer items from top consumer brands. The stores will have a footprint similar to scaled-down formats that Nordstrom(NYSE:JWN), and other department-store chains have begun opening.</p><p><blockquote>新的零售空间将约为30,000平方英尺，小于大多数百货商店，后者通常占地约100,000平方英尺，并将提供顶级消费品牌的商品。这些商店的占地面积将类似于 Nordstrom（纽约证券交易所股票代码：JWN）和其他百货连锁店已经开始开业的缩小形式。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Some might be wondering whether or not venturing into physical locations makes sense for Amazon. We believe it does because most shopping is still done in person.</p><p><blockquote>有些人可能想知道进军实体地点对亚马逊来说是否有意义。我们相信确实如此，因为大多数购物仍然是亲自完成的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d54bb0b484ee7be14cf479e672ce6a93\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In fact, over 80% of Americans still shop in person as per the image above. E-commerce has made things much more convenient and is still expected to see strong growth in the long term. However, it's unlikely to outright kill brick-and-mortar altogether. Instead, e-commerce has raised the bar for physical stores where customer experience is now a crucial part of success. In addition, e-commerce still does have some limitations. There are times where people want or need a product right away and can't wait for it to be shipped.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，超过80%的美国人仍然亲自购物，如上图所示。电子商务让事情变得更加方便，从长远来看，预计仍将出现强劲增长。然而，它不太可能完全彻底杀死实体和砂浆。相反，电子商务提高了实体店的标准，客户体验现在是成功的关键部分。此外，电子商务仍然存在一些局限性。有时候，人们马上想要或需要一个产品，迫不及待地想让它发货。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, Amazon is sitting on a huge pile of data that gives it a great insight into what customers want at different locations. This obviously increases the chances that the stores will be successful. Although it likely won't make a significant impact on revenue anytime soon, it makes sense for Amazon to venture into this space in order to complement its online marketplace.</p><p><blockquote>此外，亚马逊坐拥大量数据，这使其能够深入了解不同地点的客户想要什么。这显然增加了商店成功的机会。尽管它可能不会很快对收入产生重大影响，但亚马逊冒险进入这一领域以补充其在线市场是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> To value Amazon, we will use a 5-year DCF with growth and margin estimates from analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们将使用 5 年期 DCF 以及分析师的增长和利润率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Our Assumptions:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们的假设：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Risk-free rate: 1.26%</li> <li>Equity risk premium: 4.7%</li> <li>Beta: 1.14</li> <li>Equity cost: 6.67%</li> <li>Tax rate: 21.00%</li> <li>Cost of debt: 1.60%</li> <li>Cost of debt after-tax: 1.26%</li> <li>Weight of equity: 93%</li> <li>Weight of debt: 7%</li> <li>WACC: 6.29%</li> <li>Perpetual growth: 2.25%</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1194b2a13f120cc88ecc999422035b14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data by Finbox</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>无风险利率：1.26%</li><li>股权风险溢价：4.7%</li><li>测试版：1.14</li><li>股权成本：6.67%</li><li>税率：21.00%</li><li>债务成本：1.60%</li><li>税后债务成本：1.26%</li><li>权益权重：93%</li><li>债务权重：7%</li><li>WACC：6.29%</li><li>永久增长：2.25%</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Finbox 数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, analysts expect revenue to continue declining over the next 5 years. However, Amazon would still have a 22.8% upside in this scenario under the current low-interest-rate market conditions. Therefore, if history is any indication, and revenue does in fact accelerate, then the upside should be even higher.</p><p><blockquote>如您所见，分析师预计未来 5 年收入将继续下降。然而，在当前的低利率市场条件下，亚马逊在这种情况下仍有22.8%的上涨空间。因此，如果历史有任何迹象表明，并且收入确实在加速增长，那么上涨空间应该会更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Although we believe the market is overlooking the impact that Amazon's increased capital expenditures tend to have, the company is still trading at a discount to its intrinsic value based on what analysts are expecting. Therefore, we remain bullish on Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我们认为市场忽视了亚马逊增加资本支出往往会产生的影响，但根据分析师的预期，该公司的交易价格仍然低于其内在价值。因此，我们仍然看好亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451095-amazon-market-overlooking-fundamental-trend\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451095-amazon-market-overlooking-fundamental-trend","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109287716","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon's post-earnings sell-off was an overreaction.\nAmazon has dramatically increased its capital expenditures.\nThe company is trading at a discount to its intrinsic value.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)has seen a hefty pullback recently after guiding for slower growth in the third quarter. The market seems to be focusing on the e-commerce slowdown despite having another potential trillion-dollar business hiding within the company. We are referring to Amazon's real money maker, AWS which we covered recently in a previous article. We suggest taking a look if you're interested in learning more about AWS and why we think it's a major growth catalyst for the company. In addition, we cover the main risks involved in holding Amazon's stock.\nHowever, today's article will not be focusing on AWS. Instead, we want to talk about what the market is potentially missing from the recentearnings call. In addition, we will take a look at Amazon's new plan to open up department stores and provide an updated valuation with recent numbers.\nWhat the Market Overlooked\n\n This is all part of a multiyear investment cycle for us. Unit volumes, while obviously growing at lower rates off last year's large comp, continue to remain high, and we see strong demand for FBA [fulfilled by Amazon] and third-party sellers.\n\nThese are the words of CFO Brian Olsavsky. The company has drastically increased its Capex spending in recent quarters.\nSource: Finbox\nAs you can see from the image above, spending in the last 6 months has almost doubled compared to the same period last year. When comparing the most recent 4 quarters to the earlier 4 quarters pictured above, we can see that capital expenditures more than doubled.\nAn interesting trend emerges when we compare the increase in capital expenditures and the revenue growth rate.\nData by YCharts\nWe can see that Amazon's revenue growth tends to accelerate when capital expenditures are increased. Both metrics move almost in tandem with the exception of the period around 2006 where the benefits from the capital expenditures lagged a little. This makes sense because sometimes the benefits from investments might take a little longer to be realized.\nThis trend also appears when comparing revenue growth to increases in SG&A:\nSource: Finbox\nObviously, as spending increases on facilities, the company also needs to hire new employees to operate the facilities.\nTherefore, while growth is expected to \"slow\" because of difficult comps, it's very reasonable to assume it will once again accelerate as the company invests to improve its fulfillment centers and logistics:\n\n First, we are adding a lot of capacity. If you step back, the Amazon fulfilled unit volume, so that's the units coming out of our fulfillment centers both retail and FBA have doubled in the past 2 years. And the AMZL, the delivery arm of our business, has more than doubled in that time period. So, you can see there's been very strong multiyear demand here that we're still catching up with from last year.\n\nAs the CFO stated in the quote above, Amazon is still trying to catch up with the demand that it is experiencing. This also boosts our belief that revenue will accelerate after the tough comps pass. Once Amazon catches up to the demand, it'll be able to meet it more efficiently and deliver more packages resulting in higher revenues.\nAmazon to Open Department Stores\nAfter disrupting the retail industry for decades and driving some once-prominent brick-and-mortar department stores to bankruptcy, Amazon has now decided to open up its own. The company already has some physical locations which include Whole Foods and other small stores for books and groceries.\nThe new retail spaces will be around30,000 square feet, smaller than most department stores, which typically occupy about 100,000 square feet, and will offer items from top consumer brands. The stores will have a footprint similar to scaled-down formats that Nordstrom(NYSE:JWN), and other department-store chains have begun opening.\nSome might be wondering whether or not venturing into physical locations makes sense for Amazon. We believe it does because most shopping is still done in person.\n\nIn fact, over 80% of Americans still shop in person as per the image above. E-commerce has made things much more convenient and is still expected to see strong growth in the long term. However, it's unlikely to outright kill brick-and-mortar altogether. Instead, e-commerce has raised the bar for physical stores where customer experience is now a crucial part of success. In addition, e-commerce still does have some limitations. There are times where people want or need a product right away and can't wait for it to be shipped.\nMoreover, Amazon is sitting on a huge pile of data that gives it a great insight into what customers want at different locations. This obviously increases the chances that the stores will be successful. Although it likely won't make a significant impact on revenue anytime soon, it makes sense for Amazon to venture into this space in order to complement its online marketplace.\nValuation\nTo value Amazon, we will use a 5-year DCF with growth and margin estimates from analysts.\nOur Assumptions:\n\nRisk-free rate: 1.26%\nEquity risk premium: 4.7%\nBeta: 1.14\nEquity cost: 6.67%\nTax rate: 21.00%\nCost of debt: 1.60%\nCost of debt after-tax: 1.26%\nWeight of equity: 93%\nWeight of debt: 7%\nWACC: 6.29%\nPerpetual growth: 2.25%\n\nSource: Data by Finbox\nAs you can see, analysts expect revenue to continue declining over the next 5 years. However, Amazon would still have a 22.8% upside in this scenario under the current low-interest-rate market conditions. Therefore, if history is any indication, and revenue does in fact accelerate, then the upside should be even higher.\nFinal Thoughts\nAlthough we believe the market is overlooking the impact that Amazon's increased capital expenditures tend to have, the company is still trading at a discount to its intrinsic value based on what analysts are expecting. Therefore, we remain bullish on Amazon.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":778,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/835290125"}
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