SharkRider
2021-08-24
Wow! It may be undervalued, but I cannot bring myself to even consider purchasing the stock.
Berkshire Hathaway Remains Undervalued<blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司仍被低估</blockquote>
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It may be undervalued, but I cannot bring myself to even consider purchasing the stock.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834418927","repostId":1147501136,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147501136","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629817852,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147501136?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-24 23:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Berkshire Hathaway Remains Undervalued<blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司仍被低估</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147501136","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nCEO Warren Buffett has bought back a large number of shares in 2020 in the first half of 20","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>CEO Warren Buffett has bought back a large number of shares in 2020 in the first half of 2021.</li> <li>First half 2021 pre-tax operating earnings for manufacturing and service/retailing are up nicely over the first half of 2020.</li> <li>The stock portfolio is now in excess of $300 billion!</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b1ec40867d5f48e0522635854570624\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>RiverNorthPhotography/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特已在2021年上半年回购了大量2020年股票。</li><li>2021年上半年制造业和服务业/零售业的税前营业收入较2020年上半年大幅增长。</li><li>股票投资组合现已超过3000亿美元！</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RiverNorthPhotography/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> My thesis is that Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)is undervalued. CEO Warren Buffett has been taking advantage of this by buying back shares. He repurchased the equivalent of 80,998 “A” shares in 2020 which increased the ownership for existing shareholders by 5.2%. In the first half of this year, the 2Q2110-Qcash flow statement shows $12.6 billion in buybacks which is more than the $6.7 billion they spent in the first half of 2020. In some ways CEO Buffett can be reticent in terms of vocalizing things when the stock is cheap; his buyback actions speak louder than his words.</p><p><blockquote>我的论点是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BRK.B）被低估。首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特一直在利用这一点回购股票。彼于二零二零年购回等值80,998股“A”股，使现有股东的所有权增加5.2%。今年上半年，2Q2110-Q现金流量表显示回购金额为126亿美元，高于2020年上半年的67亿美元。在某些方面，当股价便宜时，首席执行官巴菲特可能会保持沉默；他的回购行动胜于雄辩。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the 2Q21 10-Q balance sheet, the first 5 lines are a big part of our valuation estimate:</p><p><blockquote>看看2021年第二季度10-Q资产负债表，前5行是我们估值估计的重要组成部分：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8aafe372259b0d3a4c58271edd28993\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"772\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: 2Q21 10-Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2021年第二季度10-Q</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>BNSF $115 Billion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>BNSF 1150亿美元</b></blockquote></p><p> BNSF has many similarities to Union Pacific(NYSE:UNP)including the approximate level of debt to enterprise value. The 2Q21 Union Pacific10-Qshows 652,122,933 shares outstanding as of July 16, 2021. Their share price for June 30, 2021 was $219.93 implying a June 30th market cap of $143.4 billion. I believe the market cap of BNSF is at least 80% of Union Pacific’s or $115 billion.</p><p><blockquote>BNSF与联合太平洋公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：UNP）有许多相似之处，包括债务与企业价值的大致水平。截至2021年7月16日，2021年第二季度联合太平洋10-Q显示已发行股票652,122,933股。他们2021年6月30日的股价为219.93美元，这意味着6月30日的市值为1434亿美元。我相信BNSF的市值至少是联合太平洋公司的80%，即1150亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Berkshire Hathaway Energy (“BHE”) $48.6 Billion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>伯克希尔哈撒韦能源公司（“BHE”）486亿美元</b></blockquote></p><p> We can use the prices at which BHE was repurchased for a valuation estimate but that information is getting dated. Per the BHE 2Q2110-Q, the last batch was during the first half of 2020 when 180,358 shares were repurchased for $126 million implying a share price of $698.61. The BHE 2Q21 10-Q shows 76,368,874 shares outstanding as of August 5, 2021, implying a market cap of $53.4 billion if the price from the first half of 2020 is still sound.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以使用BHE被回购的价格进行估值估计，但该信息已经过时。根据BHE 2Q2110-Q，最后一批是在2020年上半年，当时以1.26亿美元的价格回购了180,358股，这意味着股价为698.61美元。BHE 2021年第二季度10-Q显示，截至2021年8月5日，已发行股票为76,368,874股，如果2020年上半年的价格仍然合理，这意味着市值为534亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire’s 2Q21 10-Q says they own 91.1% meaning non-controlling interests own the rest. In other words, Berkshire owns $48.6 billion and non-controlling interests own $4.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Berkshire的2021年第二季度10-Q表示，他们拥有91.1%的股份，这意味着非控股权益拥有其余股份。换句话说，伯克希尔拥有486亿美元，非控股权益拥有48亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Other Non-Insurance Subsidiaries $195 Billion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他非保险子公司1950亿美元</b></blockquote></p><p> The 2Q21 10-Q breaks down revenue and pre-tax earnings under Note 23, Business segment data:</p><p><blockquote>2021年第二季度10-Q在附注23“业务部门数据”中细分了收入和税前收益：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Image Source: 2Q21 10-Q</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图片来源：2021年第二季度10-Q</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f01f33ed3856e8b1eff604acc2ebe65\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"522\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: 2Q21 10-Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2021年第二季度10-Q</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I like to use a pre-tax earnings multiple of 13 times for manufacturing, McLane and service/retailing. Their 1H21 pre-tax earnings were $5.2 billion, $0.2 billion and $2.1 billion, respectively. These numbers are a huge improvement over the first half of 2020! Summing them up and annualizing gives us $15 billion. Applying a multiple of 13 times brings us to $195 billion.</p><p><blockquote>我喜欢对制造业、麦克莱恩和服务/零售业使用13倍的税前市盈率。他们2021年上半年的税前收益分别为52亿美元、2亿美元和21亿美元。这些数字比2020年上半年有了巨大的进步！将它们相加并按年计算，我们将获得150亿美元。应用13倍的倍数，我们得到1950亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Cash, T-bills & Fixed Maturities $161.2 Billion</p><p><blockquote>现金、国库券和固定期限债券1,612亿美元</blockquote></p><p> This is the sum of the first 3 lines on the balance sheet which are $38.9 billion in cash and equivalents plus $101.8 billion in T-bills plus $20.5 billion in fixed maturities.</p><p><blockquote>这是资产负债表上前3行的总和，即389亿美元现金及等价物加上1,018亿美元国库券加上205亿美元固定期限债券。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks $307.9 Billion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股票3079亿美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Per the 4th line in the balance sheet, we have $307.9 billion in stocks. Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)is by far the biggest part of this portfolio. The13Fthrough June 2021 shows $121.5 billion in Apple stock.</p><p><blockquote>根据资产负债表的第四行，我们有3079亿美元的股票。苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）是迄今为止该投资组合中最大的部分。截至2021年6月的13F显示苹果股票价值1215亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Equity Method Investments $16.5 Billion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>权益法投资165亿美元</b></blockquote></p><p> The 5th line of the balance sheet shows $16.5 billion here. Note 5, Equity method investments, on the 2020 10-K showed that the carrying value of $13.3 billion for Kraft Heinz(NASDAQ:KHC)on the balance sheet was $2 billion higher than the fair value of $11.3 billion. However note 5 on the 2Q21 10-Q shows that the fair value went up to the same range as the carrying value so we don’t need to make any adjustments here.</p><p><blockquote>资产负债表的第五行显示165亿美元。2020年10-K的附注5“权益法投资”显示，卡夫亨氏（纳斯达克：KHC）在资产负债表上的账面价值为133亿美元，比公允价值113亿美元高出20亿美元。然而，2021年第二季度10-Q上的注释5显示，公允价值上升到与账面价值相同的范围，因此我们不需要在这里进行任何调整。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Deferred Tax Liability $(27) Billion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>递延税项负债(27)十亿美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Note 18, Income taxes, isn’t as detailed on the 10-Qs as on the 10-Ks. I’m sticking with the $27 billion net investment tax liability estimate used in my February 2021article.</p><p><blockquote>注18，所得税，在10-Q中不像在10-K中那样详细。我坚持2021年2月文章中使用的270亿美元净投资纳税义务估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Non-Controlling Interests $(3.6) Billion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>非控股权益(36亿)美元</b></blockquote></p><p> The balance sheet shows $8.4 billion in non-controlling interests but we attributed $4.8 billion to BHE investors. As such, there is another $3.6 billion or so of non-controlling interests outside of BHE.</p><p><blockquote>资产负债表显示非控股权益为84亿美元，但我们将48亿美元归因于BHE投资者。因此，BHE之外还有约36亿美元的非控股权益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Other Considerations $0</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他考虑因素$0</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> I treat the insurance operations and the float liability as a wash. I can see why fastidious accountants aren’t crazy about this but I don’t think it makes a huge difference to the overall valuation whether or not these are broken out separately.</p><p><blockquote>我把保险业务和浮动负债视为一种浪费。我可以理解为什么挑剔的会计师对此并不着迷，但我认为无论这些是否单独细分，这对整体估值都不会产生巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Chart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值图</b></blockquote></p><p> The 2Q21 says that on an equivalent Class A common stock basis, there were 1,511,229 shares outstanding as of June 30, 2021:</p><p><blockquote>2021年第二季度表示，截至2021年6月30日，按同等A类普通股计算，已发行股票为1,511,229股：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81717a4c648c5027fde69b68d33cf46f\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"695\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c490184d538a90c0980d497e3b964523\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"584\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> Here is a more visual interpretation:</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>下面是一个更直观的解读：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0183d76b73ebb2503f940ca5c3eec85\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"558\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: Author’s spreadsheet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：作者电子表格</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Of course the above chart is somewhere near the middle of my range. Rather than thinking about a valuation of $814 billion exactly, I think it could be approximately $50 billion higher or lower such that my range with round numbers to the nearest $5 billion is about $765 billion to $865 billion.</p><p><blockquote>当然，上面的图表在我的范围的中间附近。我没有准确地考虑8140亿美元的估值，而是认为它可能会高或低约500亿美元，因此我的整数范围约为7650亿美元至8650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Given the August 23rd (BRK.A) share price of $425,000, and the 1,511,229 class A share equivalents, the implied market cap is $642 billion. Seeing as the market cap is well below my valuation range, I think the stock is priced very reasonably for long-term investors.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于8月23日(BRK.A)股价为425,000美元，A类股等价物为1,511,229股，隐含市值为6,420亿美元。鉴于市值远低于我的估值范围，我认为该股的定价对于长期投资者来说非常合理。</blockquote></p><p> Some think it will be calamitous when CEO Buffett retires but he has built the company with a stable architecture that should hold up well for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>一些人认为首席执行官巴菲特退休后将是灾难性的，但他已经建立了一个稳定的架构，应该会在未来几年保持良好。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Berkshire Hathaway Remains Undervalued<blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司仍被低估</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBerkshire Hathaway Remains Undervalued<blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司仍被低估</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-24 23:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>CEO Warren Buffett has bought back a large number of shares in 2020 in the first half of 2021.</li> <li>First half 2021 pre-tax operating earnings for manufacturing and service/retailing are up nicely over the first half of 2020.</li> <li>The stock portfolio is now in excess of $300 billion!</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b1ec40867d5f48e0522635854570624\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>RiverNorthPhotography/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特已在2021年上半年回购了大量2020年股票。</li><li>2021年上半年制造业和服务业/零售业的税前营业收入较2020年上半年大幅增长。</li><li>股票投资组合现已超过3000亿美元！</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RiverNorthPhotography/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> My thesis is that Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)is undervalued. CEO Warren Buffett has been taking advantage of this by buying back shares. He repurchased the equivalent of 80,998 “A” shares in 2020 which increased the ownership for existing shareholders by 5.2%. In the first half of this year, the 2Q2110-Qcash flow statement shows $12.6 billion in buybacks which is more than the $6.7 billion they spent in the first half of 2020. In some ways CEO Buffett can be reticent in terms of vocalizing things when the stock is cheap; his buyback actions speak louder than his words.</p><p><blockquote>我的论点是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BRK.B）被低估。首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特一直在利用这一点回购股票。彼于二零二零年购回等值80,998股“A”股，使现有股东的所有权增加5.2%。今年上半年，2Q2110-Q现金流量表显示回购金额为126亿美元，高于2020年上半年的67亿美元。在某些方面，当股价便宜时，首席执行官巴菲特可能会保持沉默；他的回购行动胜于雄辩。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the 2Q21 10-Q balance sheet, the first 5 lines are a big part of our valuation estimate:</p><p><blockquote>看看2021年第二季度10-Q资产负债表，前5行是我们估值估计的重要组成部分：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8aafe372259b0d3a4c58271edd28993\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"772\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: 2Q21 10-Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2021年第二季度10-Q</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>BNSF $115 Billion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>BNSF 1150亿美元</b></blockquote></p><p> BNSF has many similarities to Union Pacific(NYSE:UNP)including the approximate level of debt to enterprise value. The 2Q21 Union Pacific10-Qshows 652,122,933 shares outstanding as of July 16, 2021. Their share price for June 30, 2021 was $219.93 implying a June 30th market cap of $143.4 billion. I believe the market cap of BNSF is at least 80% of Union Pacific’s or $115 billion.</p><p><blockquote>BNSF与联合太平洋公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：UNP）有许多相似之处，包括债务与企业价值的大致水平。截至2021年7月16日，2021年第二季度联合太平洋10-Q显示已发行股票652,122,933股。他们2021年6月30日的股价为219.93美元，这意味着6月30日的市值为1434亿美元。我相信BNSF的市值至少是联合太平洋公司的80%，即1150亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Berkshire Hathaway Energy (“BHE”) $48.6 Billion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>伯克希尔哈撒韦能源公司（“BHE”）486亿美元</b></blockquote></p><p> We can use the prices at which BHE was repurchased for a valuation estimate but that information is getting dated. Per the BHE 2Q2110-Q, the last batch was during the first half of 2020 when 180,358 shares were repurchased for $126 million implying a share price of $698.61. The BHE 2Q21 10-Q shows 76,368,874 shares outstanding as of August 5, 2021, implying a market cap of $53.4 billion if the price from the first half of 2020 is still sound.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以使用BHE被回购的价格进行估值估计，但该信息已经过时。根据BHE 2Q2110-Q，最后一批是在2020年上半年，当时以1.26亿美元的价格回购了180,358股，这意味着股价为698.61美元。BHE 2021年第二季度10-Q显示，截至2021年8月5日，已发行股票为76,368,874股，如果2020年上半年的价格仍然合理，这意味着市值为534亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire’s 2Q21 10-Q says they own 91.1% meaning non-controlling interests own the rest. In other words, Berkshire owns $48.6 billion and non-controlling interests own $4.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Berkshire的2021年第二季度10-Q表示，他们拥有91.1%的股份，这意味着非控股权益拥有其余股份。换句话说，伯克希尔拥有486亿美元，非控股权益拥有48亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Other Non-Insurance Subsidiaries $195 Billion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他非保险子公司1950亿美元</b></blockquote></p><p> The 2Q21 10-Q breaks down revenue and pre-tax earnings under Note 23, Business segment data:</p><p><blockquote>2021年第二季度10-Q在附注23“业务部门数据”中细分了收入和税前收益：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Image Source: 2Q21 10-Q</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图片来源：2021年第二季度10-Q</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f01f33ed3856e8b1eff604acc2ebe65\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"522\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: 2Q21 10-Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：2021年第二季度10-Q</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I like to use a pre-tax earnings multiple of 13 times for manufacturing, McLane and service/retailing. Their 1H21 pre-tax earnings were $5.2 billion, $0.2 billion and $2.1 billion, respectively. These numbers are a huge improvement over the first half of 2020! Summing them up and annualizing gives us $15 billion. Applying a multiple of 13 times brings us to $195 billion.</p><p><blockquote>我喜欢对制造业、麦克莱恩和服务/零售业使用13倍的税前市盈率。他们2021年上半年的税前收益分别为52亿美元、2亿美元和21亿美元。这些数字比2020年上半年有了巨大的进步！将它们相加并按年计算，我们将获得150亿美元。应用13倍的倍数，我们得到1950亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Cash, T-bills & Fixed Maturities $161.2 Billion</p><p><blockquote>现金、国库券和固定期限债券1,612亿美元</blockquote></p><p> This is the sum of the first 3 lines on the balance sheet which are $38.9 billion in cash and equivalents plus $101.8 billion in T-bills plus $20.5 billion in fixed maturities.</p><p><blockquote>这是资产负债表上前3行的总和，即389亿美元现金及等价物加上1,018亿美元国库券加上205亿美元固定期限债券。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks $307.9 Billion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股票3079亿美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Per the 4th line in the balance sheet, we have $307.9 billion in stocks. Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)is by far the biggest part of this portfolio. The13Fthrough June 2021 shows $121.5 billion in Apple stock.</p><p><blockquote>根据资产负债表的第四行，我们有3079亿美元的股票。苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）是迄今为止该投资组合中最大的部分。截至2021年6月的13F显示苹果股票价值1215亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Equity Method Investments $16.5 Billion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>权益法投资165亿美元</b></blockquote></p><p> The 5th line of the balance sheet shows $16.5 billion here. Note 5, Equity method investments, on the 2020 10-K showed that the carrying value of $13.3 billion for Kraft Heinz(NASDAQ:KHC)on the balance sheet was $2 billion higher than the fair value of $11.3 billion. However note 5 on the 2Q21 10-Q shows that the fair value went up to the same range as the carrying value so we don’t need to make any adjustments here.</p><p><blockquote>资产负债表的第五行显示165亿美元。2020年10-K的附注5“权益法投资”显示，卡夫亨氏（纳斯达克：KHC）在资产负债表上的账面价值为133亿美元，比公允价值113亿美元高出20亿美元。然而，2021年第二季度10-Q上的注释5显示，公允价值上升到与账面价值相同的范围，因此我们不需要在这里进行任何调整。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Deferred Tax Liability $(27) Billion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>递延税项负债(27)十亿美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Note 18, Income taxes, isn’t as detailed on the 10-Qs as on the 10-Ks. I’m sticking with the $27 billion net investment tax liability estimate used in my February 2021article.</p><p><blockquote>注18，所得税，在10-Q中不像在10-K中那样详细。我坚持2021年2月文章中使用的270亿美元净投资纳税义务估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Non-Controlling Interests $(3.6) Billion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>非控股权益(36亿)美元</b></blockquote></p><p> The balance sheet shows $8.4 billion in non-controlling interests but we attributed $4.8 billion to BHE investors. As such, there is another $3.6 billion or so of non-controlling interests outside of BHE.</p><p><blockquote>资产负债表显示非控股权益为84亿美元，但我们将48亿美元归因于BHE投资者。因此，BHE之外还有约36亿美元的非控股权益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Other Considerations $0</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他考虑因素$0</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> I treat the insurance operations and the float liability as a wash. I can see why fastidious accountants aren’t crazy about this but I don’t think it makes a huge difference to the overall valuation whether or not these are broken out separately.</p><p><blockquote>我把保险业务和浮动负债视为一种浪费。我可以理解为什么挑剔的会计师对此并不着迷，但我认为无论这些是否单独细分，这对整体估值都不会产生巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Chart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值图</b></blockquote></p><p> The 2Q21 says that on an equivalent Class A common stock basis, there were 1,511,229 shares outstanding as of June 30, 2021:</p><p><blockquote>2021年第二季度表示，截至2021年6月30日，按同等A类普通股计算，已发行股票为1,511,229股：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81717a4c648c5027fde69b68d33cf46f\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"695\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c490184d538a90c0980d497e3b964523\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"584\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> Here is a more visual interpretation:</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>下面是一个更直观的解读：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0183d76b73ebb2503f940ca5c3eec85\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"558\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image Source: Author’s spreadsheet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：作者电子表格</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Of course the above chart is somewhere near the middle of my range. Rather than thinking about a valuation of $814 billion exactly, I think it could be approximately $50 billion higher or lower such that my range with round numbers to the nearest $5 billion is about $765 billion to $865 billion.</p><p><blockquote>当然，上面的图表在我的范围的中间附近。我没有准确地考虑8140亿美元的估值，而是认为它可能会高或低约500亿美元，因此我的整数范围约为7650亿美元至8650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Given the August 23rd (BRK.A) share price of $425,000, and the 1,511,229 class A share equivalents, the implied market cap is $642 billion. Seeing as the market cap is well below my valuation range, I think the stock is priced very reasonably for long-term investors.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于8月23日(BRK.A)股价为425,000美元，A类股等价物为1,511,229股，隐含市值为6,420亿美元。鉴于市值远低于我的估值范围，我认为该股的定价对于长期投资者来说非常合理。</blockquote></p><p> Some think it will be calamitous when CEO Buffett retires but he has built the company with a stable architecture that should hold up well for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>一些人认为首席执行官巴菲特退休后将是灾难性的，但他已经建立了一个稳定的架构，应该会在未来几年保持良好。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451491-berkshire-hathaway-remains-undervalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451491-berkshire-hathaway-remains-undervalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147501136","content_text":"Summary\n\nCEO Warren Buffett has bought back a large number of shares in 2020 in the first half of 2021.\nFirst half 2021 pre-tax operating earnings for manufacturing and service/retailing are up nicely over the first half of 2020.\nThe stock portfolio is now in excess of $300 billion!\n\nRiverNorthPhotography/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nMy thesis is that Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)is undervalued. CEO Warren Buffett has been taking advantage of this by buying back shares. He repurchased the equivalent of 80,998 “A” shares in 2020 which increased the ownership for existing shareholders by 5.2%. In the first half of this year, the 2Q2110-Qcash flow statement shows $12.6 billion in buybacks which is more than the $6.7 billion they spent in the first half of 2020. In some ways CEO Buffett can be reticent in terms of vocalizing things when the stock is cheap; his buyback actions speak louder than his words.\nLooking at the 2Q21 10-Q balance sheet, the first 5 lines are a big part of our valuation estimate:\nImage Source: 2Q21 10-Q\nBNSF $115 Billion\nBNSF has many similarities to Union Pacific(NYSE:UNP)including the approximate level of debt to enterprise value. The 2Q21 Union Pacific10-Qshows 652,122,933 shares outstanding as of July 16, 2021. Their share price for June 30, 2021 was $219.93 implying a June 30th market cap of $143.4 billion. I believe the market cap of BNSF is at least 80% of Union Pacific’s or $115 billion.\nBerkshire Hathaway Energy (“BHE”) $48.6 Billion\nWe can use the prices at which BHE was repurchased for a valuation estimate but that information is getting dated. Per the BHE 2Q2110-Q, the last batch was during the first half of 2020 when 180,358 shares were repurchased for $126 million implying a share price of $698.61. The BHE 2Q21 10-Q shows 76,368,874 shares outstanding as of August 5, 2021, implying a market cap of $53.4 billion if the price from the first half of 2020 is still sound.\nBerkshire’s 2Q21 10-Q says they own 91.1% meaning non-controlling interests own the rest. In other words, Berkshire owns $48.6 billion and non-controlling interests own $4.8 billion.\nOther Non-Insurance Subsidiaries $195 Billion\nThe 2Q21 10-Q breaks down revenue and pre-tax earnings under Note 23, Business segment data:\nImage Source: 2Q21 10-Q\nImage Source: 2Q21 10-Q\nI like to use a pre-tax earnings multiple of 13 times for manufacturing, McLane and service/retailing. Their 1H21 pre-tax earnings were $5.2 billion, $0.2 billion and $2.1 billion, respectively. These numbers are a huge improvement over the first half of 2020! Summing them up and annualizing gives us $15 billion. Applying a multiple of 13 times brings us to $195 billion.\nCash, T-bills & Fixed Maturities $161.2 Billion\nThis is the sum of the first 3 lines on the balance sheet which are $38.9 billion in cash and equivalents plus $101.8 billion in T-bills plus $20.5 billion in fixed maturities.\nStocks $307.9 Billion\nPer the 4th line in the balance sheet, we have $307.9 billion in stocks. Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)is by far the biggest part of this portfolio. The13Fthrough June 2021 shows $121.5 billion in Apple stock.\nEquity Method Investments $16.5 Billion\nThe 5th line of the balance sheet shows $16.5 billion here. Note 5, Equity method investments, on the 2020 10-K showed that the carrying value of $13.3 billion for Kraft Heinz(NASDAQ:KHC)on the balance sheet was $2 billion higher than the fair value of $11.3 billion. However note 5 on the 2Q21 10-Q shows that the fair value went up to the same range as the carrying value so we don’t need to make any adjustments here.\nDeferred Tax Liability $(27) Billion\nNote 18, Income taxes, isn’t as detailed on the 10-Qs as on the 10-Ks. I’m sticking with the $27 billion net investment tax liability estimate used in my February 2021article.\nNon-Controlling Interests $(3.6) Billion\nThe balance sheet shows $8.4 billion in non-controlling interests but we attributed $4.8 billion to BHE investors. As such, there is another $3.6 billion or so of non-controlling interests outside of BHE.\nOther Considerations $0\nI treat the insurance operations and the float liability as a wash. I can see why fastidious accountants aren’t crazy about this but I don’t think it makes a huge difference to the overall valuation whether or not these are broken out separately.\nValuation Chart\nThe 2Q21 says that on an equivalent Class A common stock basis, there were 1,511,229 shares outstanding as of June 30, 2021:\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nHere is a more visual interpretation:\nImage Source: Author’s spreadsheet\nOf course the above chart is somewhere near the middle of my range. Rather than thinking about a valuation of $814 billion exactly, I think it could be approximately $50 billion higher or lower such that my range with round numbers to the nearest $5 billion is about $765 billion to $865 billion.\nGiven the August 23rd (BRK.A) share price of $425,000, and the 1,511,229 class A share equivalents, the implied market cap is $642 billion. Seeing as the market cap is well below my valuation range, I think the stock is priced very reasonably for long-term investors.\nSome think it will be calamitous when CEO Buffett retires but he has built the company with a stable architecture that should hold up well for years to come.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1817,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":77,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/834418927"}
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