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2021-08-17

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JPMorgan Lists The Bull And Bear Cases For Markets<blockquote>摩根大通列出了市场的牛市和熊市案例</blockquote>

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all are above Street consensus</li> <li>Accelerating buybacks– As of 8/6/21 there were $477bn of announced buybacks, implying $800bn annualized number which would trail only 2018 in $-volume and exceed 2019’s $702bn</li> <li>Improving COVID environment–this will boost Consumer spending and job growth; JPM cites Marko Kolanovic' view that the effective reproduction number (Rt) is declining in 40 of 50 states</li> <li>More stimulus– the most likely is infrastructure,which could be $550bn or ~$4T</li> <li>China growth reboot– China may decide to add more fiscal &amp; monetary stimulus helping boost RoW</li> <li>Improved labor markets– this would also have positive, direct impacts on GDP.</li> </ol> BEAR CASE:<blockquote><ol><li>盈利势头-摩根大通首席股票策略师于2011年7月20日将2021年每股收益预期上调至205美元、2022年230美元和2023年250美元；一切都超出了街头共识</li><li>加速回购-截至2011年8月6日，已宣布的回购金额为4770亿美元，这意味着年化数字为8000亿美元，仅落后于2018年，超过2019年的7020亿美元</li><li>改善COVID环境-这将促进消费者支出和就业增长；摩根大通援引Marko Kolanovic的观点，即50个州中有40个州的有效繁殖数量(Rt)正在下降</li><li>更多刺激-最有可能的是基础设施，可能是5500亿美元或约4T美元</li><li>中国增长重启-中国可能决定增加更多财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助提振RoW</li><li>改善劳动力市场-这也将对国内生产总值产生积极的直接影响。</li></ol>熊案例：</blockquote> <ol> <li>COVID expands/mutates– JPM says that there is evidence that Delta-variant is more harmful on children than other strains and the under 18 year old hospitalization rate is the highest of the pandemic (WaPo); given children under 12 are ineligible for vaccines JPM believes that \"we may see lockdowns reinstated to protect kids\"</li> <li>Online schooling– A move to delay or cancel in-person learning is market negative given the impacts on the labor market, spending without stimulus, and sentiment;</li> <li>Fed policy mistake– The bank believes that at this stage, it would be too early for the Fed to announce tapering which could mean that unemployment does not reach February 2020 levels as financial conditions tighten;</li> <li>China’s COVID-Zero policy hurts global growth– the shutdown of the world’s 3rd busiest port in China in response to one positive case triggering global delays include at the Port of Los Angeles but generally the policy has led most economists to downgrade growth.</li> <li>Government Shutdown– US fiscal policy has been a tailwind throughout the pandemic but the fighting surrounding infra and the debt ceiling could lead to another shutdown according to JPM; the 2011 shutdown led to a US credit downgrade on 8/5/11 triggering a 1.29% decline in the SPX in Aug/Sept with the 10Y yield falling from 2.40% on 8/4 to 1.92% on 9/30</li> </ol> RISKS:<blockquote><ol><li>COVID扩大/变异-JPM表示，有证据表明Delta变种对儿童的危害比其他毒株更大，18岁以下的住院率是疫情中最高的（WaPo）；鉴于12岁以下儿童没有资格接种疫苗，摩根大通认为“我们可能会看到恢复封锁以保护儿童\"</li><li>在线学校教育-考虑到对劳动力市场、无刺激支出和情绪的影响，推迟或取消面对面学习的举措对市场不利；</li><li>美联储政策失误-该行认为，在现阶段，美联储宣布缩减规模还为时过早，这可能意味着随着金融状况收紧，失业率不会达到2020年2月的水平；</li><li>中国的零新冠政策损害了全球增长-中国关闭了世界第三繁忙的港口，以应对洛杉矶港等引发全球延误的积极案例，但总体而言，该政策导致大多数经济学家下调了增长评级。</li><li>政府关门-摩根大通表示，美国财政政策在整个疫情期间一直是顺风车，但围绕基础设施和债务上限的斗争可能会导致另一次政府关门；2011年政府关门导致美国信用评级于2011年8月5日下调，引发SPX指数在8月/9月下跌1.29%，10年期收益率从8月4日的2.40%跌至9月30日的1.92%</li></ol>风险：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Geopolitics– the top risk is the situation in Afghanistan which could spill across the region potentially bringing American/Allied, Chinese, or Russian, forces to the region or a prolonged basis; at best this is a humanitarian crisis that triggers waves of refugees;</li> <li>US Consumer fails to boost the economy– while much focus has been on stimulus and savings rates, one hidden source of level is the proliferation of Buy Now, Pay Later (“BNPL”) that grew from $9.5bn in 2019 to $19bn in 2020 (CNBC) and may grow exponentially from here given new entrants like Apple and M&amp;A. There is evidence that BNPL represents hidden leverage and thus could mute the impact of normalizing savings rates and/or become a new source of economy-wide credit risk.</li> <li>Rates/USD– a surge in yields, a plunge in dollars, or inflation expectations jumping materially could drive volatility into Equity markets; and,</li> <li>Financial conditions– could become a headwind, stalling growth.</li> </ol><blockquote><ol><li>地缘政治学-最大的风险是阿富汗局势，它可能蔓延到整个地区，有可能将美国/盟国、中国或俄罗斯的部队带到该地区或长期驻扎；这充其量是一场引发难民潮的人道主义危机；</li><li>美国消费者未能提振经济-虽然很多焦点都集中在刺激和储蓄率上，但水平的一个隐藏来源是先买后付（“BNPL”）的激增，从2019年的95亿美元增长到2020年的190亿美元（CNBC），并且可能会呈指数级增长考虑到苹果和并购等新进入者，从这里开始。有证据表明，BNPL代表着隐性杠杆，因此可能会削弱储蓄率正常化的影响和/或成为整个经济信用风险的新来源。</li><li>费率/美元-收益率飙升、美元暴跌或通胀预期大幅跃升可能会导致股市波动；并且，</li><li>财务状况-可能成为阻力，阻碍增长。</li></ol></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Lists The Bull And Bear Cases For Markets<blockquote>摩根大通列出了市场的牛市和熊市案例</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Lists The Bull And Bear Cases For Markets<blockquote>摩根大通列出了市场的牛市和熊市案例</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-08-17 17:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWith most banks publishing mea culpas (seeGoldmanandMorgan Stanley) for failing to predict the meltup in the market that has now pushed the S&amp;P 100% higher from the pandemic bottom in March 2020 and is trading at a new all time high as of this moment, this morning JPMorgan - which has been one of the most vocally bullish banks even if it has called for outperformance of value stocks which have lost their mojo in the past 3 months as the reflation case was abandoned by markets - published its Bull and Bear Cases, including several key risks that the bank's strategist believe will define markets for the next few months.<blockquote>随着大多数银行因未能预测市场崩溃而道歉（见高盛和摩根士丹利），市场崩溃已将标准普尔指数从2020年3月的大流行底部推高100%，目前交易价格创下历史新高，今天上午摩根大通（JPMorgan）一直是最积极乐观的银行之一，尽管它呼吁价值股表现优异，但由于通货再膨胀案例被市场放弃，这些股票在过去3个月中失去了魔力——发布了牛市和熊市案例，包括该行策略师认为将定义未来几个月市场的几个关键风险。</blockquote> BULL CASE:<blockquote>牛市案例：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Earnings momentum– JPM's chief equity strategist increased his EPS estimates on 7/20/21 to $205 for 2021, $230for 2022, and $250 for 2023; all are above Street consensus</li> <li>Accelerating buybacks– As of 8/6/21 there were $477bn of announced buybacks, implying $800bn annualized number which would trail only 2018 in $-volume and exceed 2019’s $702bn</li> <li>Improving COVID environment–this will boost Consumer spending and job growth; JPM cites Marko Kolanovic' view that the effective reproduction number (Rt) is declining in 40 of 50 states</li> <li>More stimulus– the most likely is infrastructure,which could be $550bn or ~$4T</li> <li>China growth reboot– China may decide to add more fiscal &amp; monetary stimulus helping boost RoW</li> <li>Improved labor markets– this would also have positive, direct impacts on GDP.</li> </ol> BEAR CASE:<blockquote><ol><li>盈利势头-摩根大通首席股票策略师于2011年7月20日将2021年每股收益预期上调至205美元、2022年230美元和2023年250美元；一切都超出了街头共识</li><li>加速回购-截至2011年8月6日，已宣布的回购金额为4770亿美元，这意味着年化数字为8000亿美元，仅落后于2018年，超过2019年的7020亿美元</li><li>改善COVID环境-这将促进消费者支出和就业增长；摩根大通援引Marko Kolanovic的观点，即50个州中有40个州的有效繁殖数量(Rt)正在下降</li><li>更多刺激-最有可能的是基础设施，可能是5500亿美元或约4T美元</li><li>中国增长重启-中国可能决定增加更多财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助提振RoW</li><li>改善劳动力市场-这也将对国内生产总值产生积极的直接影响。</li></ol>熊案例：</blockquote> <ol> <li>COVID expands/mutates– JPM says that there is evidence that Delta-variant is more harmful on children than other strains and the under 18 year old hospitalization rate is the highest of the pandemic (WaPo); given children under 12 are ineligible for vaccines JPM believes that \"we may see lockdowns reinstated to protect kids\"</li> <li>Online schooling– A move to delay or cancel in-person learning is market negative given the impacts on the labor market, spending without stimulus, and sentiment;</li> <li>Fed policy mistake– The bank believes that at this stage, it would be too early for the Fed to announce tapering which could mean that unemployment does not reach February 2020 levels as financial conditions tighten;</li> <li>China’s COVID-Zero policy hurts global growth– the shutdown of the world’s 3rd busiest port in China in response to one positive case triggering global delays include at the Port of Los Angeles but generally the policy has led most economists to downgrade growth.</li> <li>Government Shutdown– US fiscal policy has been a tailwind throughout the pandemic but the fighting surrounding infra and the debt ceiling could lead to another shutdown according to JPM; the 2011 shutdown led to a US credit downgrade on 8/5/11 triggering a 1.29% decline in the SPX in Aug/Sept with the 10Y yield falling from 2.40% on 8/4 to 1.92% on 9/30</li> </ol> RISKS:<blockquote><ol><li>COVID扩大/变异-JPM表示，有证据表明Delta变种对儿童的危害比其他毒株更大，18岁以下的住院率是疫情中最高的（WaPo）；鉴于12岁以下儿童没有资格接种疫苗，摩根大通认为“我们可能会看到恢复封锁以保护儿童\"</li><li>在线学校教育-考虑到对劳动力市场、无刺激支出和情绪的影响，推迟或取消面对面学习的举措对市场不利；</li><li>美联储政策失误-该行认为，在现阶段，美联储宣布缩减规模还为时过早，这可能意味着随着金融状况收紧，失业率不会达到2020年2月的水平；</li><li>中国的零新冠政策损害了全球增长-中国关闭了世界第三繁忙的港口，以应对洛杉矶港等引发全球延误的积极案例，但总体而言，该政策导致大多数经济学家下调了增长评级。</li><li>政府关门-摩根大通表示，美国财政政策在整个疫情期间一直是顺风车，但围绕基础设施和债务上限的斗争可能会导致另一次政府关门；2011年政府关门导致美国信用评级于2011年8月5日下调，引发SPX指数在8月/9月下跌1.29%，10年期收益率从8月4日的2.40%跌至9月30日的1.92%</li></ol>风险：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Geopolitics– the top risk is the situation in Afghanistan which could spill across the region potentially bringing American/Allied, Chinese, or Russian, forces to the region or a prolonged basis; at best this is a humanitarian crisis that triggers waves of refugees;</li> <li>US Consumer fails to boost the economy– while much focus has been on stimulus and savings rates, one hidden source of level is the proliferation of Buy Now, Pay Later (“BNPL”) that grew from $9.5bn in 2019 to $19bn in 2020 (CNBC) and may grow exponentially from here given new entrants like Apple and M&amp;A. There is evidence that BNPL represents hidden leverage and thus could mute the impact of normalizing savings rates and/or become a new source of economy-wide credit risk.</li> <li>Rates/USD– a surge in yields, a plunge in dollars, or inflation expectations jumping materially could drive volatility into Equity markets; and,</li> <li>Financial conditions– could become a headwind, stalling growth.</li> </ol><blockquote><ol><li>地缘政治学-最大的风险是阿富汗局势，它可能蔓延到整个地区，有可能将美国/盟国、中国或俄罗斯的部队带到该地区或长期驻扎；这充其量是一场引发难民潮的人道主义危机；</li><li>美国消费者未能提振经济-虽然很多焦点都集中在刺激和储蓄率上，但水平的一个隐藏来源是先买后付（“BNPL”）的激增，从2019年的95亿美元增长到2020年的190亿美元（CNBC），并且可能会呈指数级增长考虑到苹果和并购等新进入者，从这里开始。有证据表明，BNPL代表着隐性杠杆，因此可能会削弱储蓄率正常化的影响和/或成为整个经济信用风险的新来源。</li><li>费率/美元-收益率飙升、美元暴跌或通胀预期大幅跃升可能会导致股市波动；并且，</li><li>财务状况-可能成为阻力，阻碍增长。</li></ol></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-lists-bull-and-bear-cases-markets\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-lists-bull-and-bear-cases-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123297263","content_text":"With most banks publishing mea culpas (seeGoldmanandMorgan Stanley) for failing to predict the meltup in the market that has now pushed the S&P 100% higher from the pandemic bottom in March 2020 and is trading at a new all time high as of this moment, this morning JPMorgan - which has been one of the most vocally bullish banks even if it has called for outperformance of value stocks which have lost their mojo in the past 3 months as the reflation case was abandoned by markets - published its Bull and Bear Cases, including several key risks that the bank's strategist believe will define markets for the next few months.\nBULL CASE:\n\nEarnings momentum– JPM's chief equity strategist increased his EPS estimates on 7/20/21 to $205 for 2021, $230for 2022, and $250 for 2023; all are above Street consensus\nAccelerating buybacks– As of 8/6/21 there were $477bn of announced buybacks, implying $800bn annualized number which would trail only 2018 in $-volume and exceed 2019’s $702bn\nImproving COVID environment–this will boost Consumer spending and job growth; JPM cites Marko Kolanovic' view that the effective reproduction number (Rt) is declining in 40 of 50 states\nMore stimulus– the most likely is infrastructure,which could be $550bn or ~$4T\nChina growth reboot– China may decide to add more fiscal & monetary stimulus helping boost RoW\nImproved labor markets– this would also have positive, direct impacts on GDP.\n\nBEAR CASE:\n\nCOVID expands/mutates– JPM says that there is evidence that Delta-variant is more harmful on children than other strains and the under 18 year old hospitalization rate is the highest of the pandemic (WaPo); given children under 12 are ineligible for vaccines JPM believes that \"we may see lockdowns reinstated to protect kids\"\nOnline schooling– A move to delay or cancel in-person learning is market negative given the impacts on the labor market, spending without stimulus, and sentiment;\nFed policy mistake– The bank believes that at this stage, it would be too early for the Fed to announce tapering which could mean that unemployment does not reach February 2020 levels as financial conditions tighten;\nChina’s COVID-Zero policy hurts global growth– the shutdown of the world’s 3rd busiest port in China in response to one positive case triggering global delays include at the Port of Los Angeles but generally the policy has led most economists to downgrade growth.\nGovernment Shutdown– US fiscal policy has been a tailwind throughout the pandemic but the fighting surrounding infra and the debt ceiling could lead to another shutdown according to JPM; the 2011 shutdown led to a US credit downgrade on 8/5/11 triggering a 1.29% decline in the SPX in Aug/Sept with the 10Y yield falling from 2.40% on 8/4 to 1.92% on 9/30\n\nRISKS:\n\nGeopolitics– the top risk is the situation in Afghanistan which could spill across the region potentially bringing American/Allied, Chinese, or Russian, forces to the region or a prolonged basis; at best this is a humanitarian crisis that triggers waves of refugees;\nUS Consumer fails to boost the economy– while much focus has been on stimulus and savings rates, one hidden source of level is the proliferation of Buy Now, Pay Later (“BNPL”) that grew from $9.5bn in 2019 to $19bn in 2020 (CNBC) and may grow exponentially from here given new entrants like Apple and M&A. There is evidence that BNPL represents hidden leverage and thus could mute the impact of normalizing savings rates and/or become a new source of economy-wide credit risk.\nRates/USD– a surge in yields, a plunge in dollars, or inflation expectations jumping materially could drive volatility into Equity markets; and,\nFinancial conditions– could become a headwind, stalling growth.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":723,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/833908735"}