Something is brewing_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-08-19

Something is brewing

Investors compare 2021 stock-market rally to the pre-crash summer of 1987 — should they?<blockquote>投资者将 2021 年股市反弹与 1987 年崩盘前的夏天进行比较——他们应该这样做吗？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":831512151,"tweetId":"831512151","gmtCreate":1629334740473,"gmtModify":1631892066259,"author":{"id":3576051682201625,"idStr":"3576051682201625","authorId":3576051682201625,"authorIdStr":"3576051682201625","name":"alexseahwj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5104c5b64b63b0070c1793ca39d077ba","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":7,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Something is brewing</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Something is brewing</body></html>","text":"Something is brewing","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831512151","repostId":1161930198,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161930198","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629331022,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161930198?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-19 07:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors compare 2021 stock-market rally to the pre-crash summer of 1987 — should they?<blockquote>投资者将 2021 年股市反弹与 1987 年崩盘前的夏天进行比较——他们应该这样做吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161930198","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘Strength often begets strength,’ but there’s no guarantee\n'Wall Street' in the pre-working from hom","content":"‘Strength often begets strength,’ but there’s no guarantee<blockquote>力量往往会产生力量，但这并不能保证</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d3b6031d3c2b32047dfe87035791cad\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"708\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">'Wall Street' in the pre-working from home era. EVERETT COLLECTION<blockquote>在家工作前时代的“华尔街”。埃弗雷特收藏</blockquote> Some investors are drawing parallels between the stock market’s 2021 climb and the pattern seen in 1987, a year that saw a seemingly relentless rally completely undone by the “Black Monday” crash in October, but there are some important differences, analysts note.<blockquote>分析师指出，一些投资者将 2021 年的股市攀升与 1987 年的模式相提并论，1987 年看似无情的反弹被 10 月份的 “黑色星期一 ”崩盘彻底摧毁，但两者之间存在一些重要差异。</blockquote> Granted, the comparison does feel appropriate, at least on the surface, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Wednesday note.<blockquote>DataTrek Research 联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯 (Nicholas Colas) 在周三的一份报告中表示，诚然，这种比较确实感觉合适，至少从表面上看是这样。</blockquote> “Everyone, from plugged-in hedge-fund managers to retail investors, is making money. The movie ‘Wall Street’ debuted in late 1987 and, while this decade’s Bud Fox may be working from home, the overall societal vibe is similar.”<blockquote>“从插电式对冲基金经理到散户投资者，每个人都在赚钱。电影《华尔街》于 1987 年底首映，虽然这十年的巴德-福克斯可能在家工作，但整体社会氛围是相似的。”</blockquote> But the comparison doesn’t look so apt when comparing the year-to-date performances of the S&amp;P 500 index,he said. The large-cap benchmark was up 36% through Aug. 17, 1987, versus just 18% for the same period in 2021.<blockquote>但他说，在比较标普500指数今年迄今的表现时，这种比较看起来并不那么恰当。截至 1987 年 8 月 17 日，大盘股基准指数上涨了 36%，而 2021 年同期仅上涨了 18%。</blockquote> As for the two years prior, 1985 and 1986 saw S&amp;P 500 total returns of 31% and 18%, respectively, matching up identically with returns in 2019 and 2020 which Colas acknowledged is a bit “spooky.” However, he maintained, the 2021 rally is still a “pale comparison” to what was going on in 1987.<blockquote>至于前两年，1985 年和 1986 年标普500的总回报率分别为 31% 和 18%，与 2019 年和 2020 年的回报率完全相同，科拉斯承认这有点 “怪异”。不过，他坚持认为，2021 年的集会与 1987 年的集会 “相形见绌”。</blockquote> Stocks were&nbsp;mostly lower&nbsp;on Wednesday, a day after the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;each snapped a five-session streak of record finishes.<blockquote>周三股市大多走低，一天前，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数均打破了连续五个交易日的历史新高。</blockquote> Meanwhile, analysts at Bespoke Investment Group this week pointed out that the S&amp;P 500 is on pace to set a record for, well, records. Tuesday’s all-time closing high was not only the fifth in a row, it was also the 49th of 2021. That puts the index on track for 78 closing highs this year, which would edge out the record 77 seen in 1995.<blockquote>与此同时，Bespoke Investment Group 的分析师本周指出，标普500有望创下纪录。周二的历史收盘高点不仅是连续第五个，也是 2021 年的第 49 个。这使得该指数今年有望创下 78 个收盘高点，超越 1995 年创下的 77 个收盘高点。</blockquote> It’s no sure thing, the Bespoke analysts cautioned, noting that even a 5% pullback could eat into the ability to maintain a record-breaking pace. They noted that since 1950, there have been five years where the S&amp;P 500 had more than 40 record highs through Aug. 16, and while both 1995 and 1964 were the leaders in those years, years like 1987, 1997, and 1998 also had more than 40 record highs at this point in the year, and none of them finished the year with more than 50.<blockquote>Bespoke 分析师提醒说，这还不是板上钉钉的事，他们指出，即使回调 5%，也可能侵蚀保持破纪录速度的能力。他们指出，自 1950 年以来，截至 8 月 16 日，标普500有五年创下了 40 多个历史新高，虽然 1995 年和 1964 年都是这些年中的佼佼者，但 1987 年、1997 年和 1998 年等年份在这一年中的这个时候也创下了 40 多个历史新高，而且没有一个年末的历史新高超过 50 个。</blockquote> But more important, what does such a rapid pace of closing highs mean for full-year performance? It’s mostly positive, as one would suspect, though there are exceptions, including, of course, 1987 (see table below).<blockquote>但更重要的是，如此快速的收盘高点对全年业绩意味着什么？正如人们所怀疑的那样，它大多是积极的，尽管也有例外，当然包括 1987 年（见下表）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/981c0baa3da755be710dba80091eb0fd\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"647\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">BESPOKE INVESTMENT GROUP<blockquote>定制投资组</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500’s year-to-date gain is very similar to the median and average return of the five prior years in the table, the analysts noted.<blockquote>分析师指出，标普500今年迄今为止的收益与表格中前五年的中位数和平均回报率非常相似。</blockquote> “Looking ahead, the median rest of year performance for the index from the close on 8/16 through year-end was a gain of 7.7% with positive returns four out of five times and more than doubling the average rest of year performance for all years since 1950,” they wrote, noting that “the one exception was in 1987 and it was a doozy.”<blockquote>“他们写道：”展望未来，从 8 月 16 日收盘到年底，该指数的年终表现中位数上涨了 7.7%，五分之四的正回报率是 1950 年以来所有年份的年终平均表现的两倍多，并指出 “唯一的例外是 1987 年，那是一次惊人的经历”。</blockquote> So what should investors make of it all?<blockquote>那么投资者应该如何看待这一切呢？</blockquote> The Bespoke analysts noted that the usual caveats apply — there’s no guarantee and past performance isn’t indicative of future results — but the data does underline the observation that “strength often begets strength in the market.”<blockquote>定制分析师指出，通常的注意事项是适用的--没有任何保证，过去的表现也不能代表未来的结果--但数据确实强调了 “市场的实力往往会催生实力 ”的观察。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors compare 2021 stock-market rally to the pre-crash summer of 1987 — should they?<blockquote>投资者将 2021 年股市反弹与 1987 年崩盘前的夏天进行比较——他们应该这样做吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-08-19 07:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n‘Strength often begets strength,’ but there’s no guarantee<blockquote>力量往往会产生力量，但这并不能保证</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d3b6031d3c2b32047dfe87035791cad\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"708\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">'Wall Street' in the pre-working from home era. EVERETT COLLECTION<blockquote>在家工作前时代的“华尔街”。埃弗雷特收藏</blockquote> Some investors are drawing parallels between the stock market’s 2021 climb and the pattern seen in 1987, a year that saw a seemingly relentless rally completely undone by the “Black Monday” crash in October, but there are some important differences, analysts note.<blockquote>分析师指出，一些投资者将 2021 年的股市攀升与 1987 年的模式相提并论，1987 年看似无情的反弹被 10 月份的 “黑色星期一 ”崩盘彻底摧毁，但两者之间存在一些重要差异。</blockquote> Granted, the comparison does feel appropriate, at least on the surface, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Wednesday note.<blockquote>DataTrek Research 联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯 (Nicholas Colas) 在周三的一份报告中表示，诚然，这种比较确实感觉合适，至少从表面上看是这样。</blockquote> “Everyone, from plugged-in hedge-fund managers to retail investors, is making money. The movie ‘Wall Street’ debuted in late 1987 and, while this decade’s Bud Fox may be working from home, the overall societal vibe is similar.”<blockquote>“从插电式对冲基金经理到散户投资者，每个人都在赚钱。电影《华尔街》于 1987 年底首映，虽然这十年的巴德-福克斯可能在家工作，但整体社会氛围是相似的。”</blockquote> But the comparison doesn’t look so apt when comparing the year-to-date performances of the S&amp;P 500 index,he said. The large-cap benchmark was up 36% through Aug. 17, 1987, versus just 18% for the same period in 2021.<blockquote>但他说，在比较标普500指数今年迄今的表现时，这种比较看起来并不那么恰当。截至 1987 年 8 月 17 日，大盘股基准指数上涨了 36%，而 2021 年同期仅上涨了 18%。</blockquote> As for the two years prior, 1985 and 1986 saw S&amp;P 500 total returns of 31% and 18%, respectively, matching up identically with returns in 2019 and 2020 which Colas acknowledged is a bit “spooky.” However, he maintained, the 2021 rally is still a “pale comparison” to what was going on in 1987.<blockquote>至于前两年，1985 年和 1986 年标普500的总回报率分别为 31% 和 18%，与 2019 年和 2020 年的回报率完全相同，科拉斯承认这有点 “怪异”。不过，他坚持认为，2021 年的集会与 1987 年的集会 “相形见绌”。</blockquote> Stocks were&nbsp;mostly lower&nbsp;on Wednesday, a day after the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;each snapped a five-session streak of record finishes.<blockquote>周三股市大多走低，一天前，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数均打破了连续五个交易日的历史新高。</blockquote> Meanwhile, analysts at Bespoke Investment Group this week pointed out that the S&amp;P 500 is on pace to set a record for, well, records. Tuesday’s all-time closing high was not only the fifth in a row, it was also the 49th of 2021. That puts the index on track for 78 closing highs this year, which would edge out the record 77 seen in 1995.<blockquote>与此同时，Bespoke Investment Group 的分析师本周指出，标普500有望创下纪录。周二的历史收盘高点不仅是连续第五个，也是 2021 年的第 49 个。这使得该指数今年有望创下 78 个收盘高点，超越 1995 年创下的 77 个收盘高点。</blockquote> It’s no sure thing, the Bespoke analysts cautioned, noting that even a 5% pullback could eat into the ability to maintain a record-breaking pace. They noted that since 1950, there have been five years where the S&amp;P 500 had more than 40 record highs through Aug. 16, and while both 1995 and 1964 were the leaders in those years, years like 1987, 1997, and 1998 also had more than 40 record highs at this point in the year, and none of them finished the year with more than 50.<blockquote>Bespoke 分析师提醒说，这还不是板上钉钉的事，他们指出，即使回调 5%，也可能侵蚀保持破纪录速度的能力。他们指出，自 1950 年以来，截至 8 月 16 日，标普500有五年创下了 40 多个历史新高，虽然 1995 年和 1964 年都是这些年中的佼佼者，但 1987 年、1997 年和 1998 年等年份在这一年中的这个时候也创下了 40 多个历史新高，而且没有一个年末的历史新高超过 50 个。</blockquote> But more important, what does such a rapid pace of closing highs mean for full-year performance? It’s mostly positive, as one would suspect, though there are exceptions, including, of course, 1987 (see table below).<blockquote>但更重要的是，如此快速的收盘高点对全年业绩意味着什么？正如人们所怀疑的那样，它大多是积极的，尽管也有例外，当然包括 1987 年（见下表）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/981c0baa3da755be710dba80091eb0fd\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"647\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">BESPOKE INVESTMENT GROUP<blockquote>定制投资组</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500’s year-to-date gain is very similar to the median and average return of the five prior years in the table, the analysts noted.<blockquote>分析师指出，标普500今年迄今为止的收益与表格中前五年的中位数和平均回报率非常相似。</blockquote> “Looking ahead, the median rest of year performance for the index from the close on 8/16 through year-end was a gain of 7.7% with positive returns four out of five times and more than doubling the average rest of year performance for all years since 1950,” they wrote, noting that “the one exception was in 1987 and it was a doozy.”<blockquote>“他们写道：”展望未来，从 8 月 16 日收盘到年底，该指数的年终表现中位数上涨了 7.7%，五分之四的正回报率是 1950 年以来所有年份的年终平均表现的两倍多，并指出 “唯一的例外是 1987 年，那是一次惊人的经历”。</blockquote> So what should investors make of it all?<blockquote>那么投资者应该如何看待这一切呢？</blockquote> The Bespoke analysts noted that the usual caveats apply — there’s no guarantee and past performance isn’t indicative of future results — but the data does underline the observation that “strength often begets strength in the market.”<blockquote>定制分析师指出，通常的注意事项是适用的--没有任何保证，过去的表现也不能代表未来的结果--但数据确实强调了 “市场的实力往往会催生实力 ”的观察。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-comparing-the-2021-stock-market-to-the-summer-of-1987-should-they-11629301481?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-comparing-the-2021-stock-market-to-the-summer-of-1987-should-they-11629301481?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161930198","content_text":"‘Strength often begets strength,’ but there’s no guarantee\n'Wall Street' in the pre-working from home era. EVERETT COLLECTION\nSome investors are drawing parallels between the stock market’s 2021 climb and the pattern seen in 1987, a year that saw a seemingly relentless rally completely undone by the “Black Monday” crash in October, but there are some important differences, analysts note.\nGranted, the comparison does feel appropriate, at least on the surface, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Wednesday note.\n“Everyone, from plugged-in hedge-fund managers to retail investors, is making money. The movie ‘Wall Street’ debuted in late 1987 and, while this decade’s Bud Fox may be working from home, the overall societal vibe is similar.”\nBut the comparison doesn’t look so apt when comparing the year-to-date performances of the S&P 500 index,he said. The large-cap benchmark was up 36% through Aug. 17, 1987, versus just 18% for the same period in 2021.\nAs for the two years prior, 1985 and 1986 saw S&P 500 total returns of 31% and 18%, respectively, matching up identically with returns in 2019 and 2020 which Colas acknowledged is a bit “spooky.” However, he maintained, the 2021 rally is still a “pale comparison” to what was going on in 1987.\nStocks were mostly lower on Wednesday, a day after the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average each snapped a five-session streak of record finishes.\nMeanwhile, analysts at Bespoke Investment Group this week pointed out that the S&P 500 is on pace to set a record for, well, records. Tuesday’s all-time closing high was not only the fifth in a row, it was also the 49th of 2021. That puts the index on track for 78 closing highs this year, which would edge out the record 77 seen in 1995.\nIt’s no sure thing, the Bespoke analysts cautioned, noting that even a 5% pullback could eat into the ability to maintain a record-breaking pace. They noted that since 1950, there have been five years where the S&P 500 had more than 40 record highs through Aug. 16, and while both 1995 and 1964 were the leaders in those years, years like 1987, 1997, and 1998 also had more than 40 record highs at this point in the year, and none of them finished the year with more than 50.\nBut more important, what does such a rapid pace of closing highs mean for full-year performance? It’s mostly positive, as one would suspect, though there are exceptions, including, of course, 1987 (see table below).\nBESPOKE INVESTMENT GROUP\nThe S&P 500’s year-to-date gain is very similar to the median and average return of the five prior years in the table, the analysts noted.\n“Looking ahead, the median rest of year performance for the index from the close on 8/16 through year-end was a gain of 7.7% with positive returns four out of five times and more than doubling the average rest of year performance for all years since 1950,” they wrote, noting that “the one exception was in 1987 and it was a doozy.”\nSo what should investors make of it all?\nThe Bespoke analysts noted that the usual caveats apply — there’s no guarantee and past performance isn’t indicative of future results — but the data does underline the observation that “strength often begets strength in the market.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":817,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":18,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/831512151"}