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2021-08-15

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Where Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后普拉格能源会在哪里？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":830022082,"tweetId":"830022082","gmtCreate":1628994905046,"gmtModify":1633688100889,"author":{"id":3582015941678991,"idStr":"3582015941678991","authorId":3582015941678991,"authorIdStr":"3582015941678991","name":"MG8000","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae04462881ae84bc3e097956d467e328","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Cool</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Cool</body></html>","text":"Cool","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830022082","repostId":1133270372,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133270372","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628988501,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133270372?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 08:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后普拉格能源会在哪里？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133270372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPlug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.\nIt serves low-ri","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Plug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.</li> <li>It serves low-risk customers and has a strong position in its industry.</li> <li>Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth, and investors should consider what actual per-share returns might look like before deploying money at current valuations.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fa1aea5535d99338f385c168062b218\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Fokusiert/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>普拉格能源活跃于一个有吸引力的行业，拥有巨大的增长动力。</li><li>它服务于低风险客户，在行业中拥有强大的地位。</li><li>股票的定价取决于未来的增长，投资者在以当前估值部署资金之前应该考虑实际的每股回报率。</li></ul>Focusion/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG) is active in a high-growth industry, which translates into a strong long-term business growth outlook, as long as the company can capitalize on its goals and management executes well. The company is, however, not profitable yet, and the path to meaningful net profits holds some uncertainties still. Taking a longer-term view, we can expect that Plug Power will generate positive net profits despite the fact that shares are valuing the company at a relatively high current valuation. From a risk-reward standpoint, there may be better picks available, though, despite the fact that I believe that shares will trade materially higher in 2031.<blockquote>普拉格能源公司 (PLUG) 活跃于高增长行业，只要公司能够实现其目标并且管理层执行良好，这就会转化为强劲的长期业务增长前景。然而，该公司尚未盈利，实现有意义的净利润之路仍存在一些不确定性。从长远来看，我们可以预计普拉格能源将产生正净利润，尽管该公司的股票目前估值相对较高。不过，从风险回报的角度来看，可能会有更好的选择，尽管我相信 2031 年股票交易将大幅走高。</blockquote> Plug Power Stock Price<blockquote>普拉格能源股价</blockquote> Plug Power, Inc. has seen its share price move up and down violently over the last year:<blockquote>普拉格能源公司的股价在过去一年里剧烈上下波动：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d940297249151eddcccf6440d20ef031\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Shares trade 130% higher than 12 months ago, but at the same time, shares trade at just one-third of the all-time high today. In early 2021, shares exploded upwards at a time when other renewable/new energy and related stocks, including EV plays, benefited from massive investor enthusiasm. Since then, enthusiasm seems to have cooled, and shares have reverted back to the $20s. At current prices, Plug Power, Inc. is valued at $16 billion based on a diluted share count of a little less than 600 million. Analysts are pretty bullish on the stock right now, as the consensus price target of $41 implies an upside potential of around 50% from current prices throughout the next year. It should be noted, however, that the analyst consensus price target has been lowered in recent months, and may continue to be lowered going forward. Due to non-existent profits PLUG can't be valued on an earnings basis, but shares trade for around 30x this year's revenue, which is quite expensive.<blockquote>股价比 12 个月前上涨了 130%，但与此同时，今天的股价仅为历史高点的三分之一。2021年初，当其他可再生能源/新能源及相关股票（包括电动汽车）受益于投资者的巨大热情时，股价爆炸式上涨。此后，热情似乎已经冷却，股价已回到20美元左右。按当前价格计算，普拉格能源公司的估值为 160 亿美元，按稀释后略低于 6 亿股计算。分析师目前相当看好该股，因为 41 美元的一致目标价意味着明年全年较当前价格上涨约 50%。但需要注意的是，分析师一致的目标价近几个月来有所下调，未来可能会继续下调。由于不存在利润，PLUG 无法根据盈利进行估值，但股票交易价格约为今年收入的 30 倍，这相当昂贵。</blockquote> Plug Power Stock Prediction<blockquote>普拉格能源股票预测</blockquote> Plug Power, Inc. is active in an absolute growth industry, as hydrogen fuel cells will see huge demand growth in coming years as they allow for an environmentally friendly alternative to other fuels. Plug Power, as a turnkey provider in a market leadership position for this technology, is well-positioned to capitalize on this megatrend. Through a network of global partnerships, including with Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP), Plug Power is working on growing the green hydrogen industryglobally:<blockquote>普拉格能源公司活跃于一个绝对增长的行业，因为氢燃料电池在未来几年将出现巨大的需求增长，因为它们提供了其他燃料的环保替代品。普拉格能源作为该技术市场领先地位的交钥匙提供商，完全有能力利用这一大趋势。通过包括 Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP) 在内的全球合作伙伴网络，普拉格能源正在致力于在全球发展绿色氢产业：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a8e3b57882e429c9eace431bd1f541\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Plug Power presentation<blockquote>资料来源：普拉格能源介绍</blockquote> Plug Power's green hydrogen can be used for powering trucks, busses, and other vehicles, while the company is also providing environmentally friendly alternatives to diesel generators in the megawatt scale range that can be used by utilities, for example. The company is, on top of that, also working on other ventures that are not ready to be commercialized yet, such as powering aircraft with hydrogen. Plug Power will have at least 5 hydrogen plants running in the US in 2024, i.e. three years from now, with more projects being in the pipeline both in the US and in overseas markets such as Europe.<blockquote>Plug Power 的绿色氢可用于为卡车、公共汽车和其他车辆提供动力，同时该公司还提供兆瓦级柴油发电机的环保替代品，可供公用事业公司使用。除此之外，该公司还在开展其他尚未准备好商业化的项目，例如用氢气为飞机提供动力。到 2024 年（即三年后），普拉格能源将在美国运营至少 5 座氢工厂，美国和欧洲等海外市场还有更多项目正在筹备中。</blockquote> 80% of Plug Power's customers are what the company calls blue chip customers, which includes companies such as Amazon (AMZN). These companies are oftentimes highly inclined to improve their CO2 footprint in order to receive better ESG ratings, and at the same time, these are low-risk customers as their strong balance sheets and cash flows mean that the risk of liquidity or solvency issues is negligible. Overall, Plug Power thus works with attractive counterparts, and their financial firepower means that Plug Power is not forced to sell its products at bargain prices, which is why the company has been able to generate relatively attractive product gross margins in the 30s in recent quarters.<blockquote>Plug Power 80%的客户是评级公司的蓝筹股客户，其中包括亚马逊（AMZN）等公司。这些公司通常非常倾向于改善其二氧化碳足迹，以获得更好的ESG评级，同时，这些公司是低风险客户，因为其强劲的资产负债表和现金流意味着流动性或偿付能力问题的风险可以忽略不计。总体而言，普拉格能源因此与有吸引力的同行合作，他们的财务火力意味着普拉格能源不会被迫以便宜的价格销售其产品，这就是为什么该公司能够在最近几个季度产生相对有吸引力的产品毛利率 30 多岁。</blockquote> Due to the still relatively small scale of the company, Plug Power is not profitable on a net basis or operating basis, however. The company's operating expenses, relative to the revenues that Plug Power generates, are still too high for now. This should, however, change over time, as operating leverage and improving product margins should allow Plug Power to grow gross profits relative to operating expenses, which will result in improving profitability. Analysts are currently predicting positive net profits for fiscal 2024, or three years from now. It would, of course, be better if Plug Power had hit that point already, but for long-term oriented investors, two more years of negative profits will not be a disaster.<blockquote>然而，由于该公司的规模仍然相对较小，普拉格能源在净额基础上或在经营基础上都没有盈利。相对于普拉格能源产生的收入，该公司的运营费用目前仍然过高。然而，随着时间的推移，这种情况应该会发生变化，因为运营杠杆和提高产品利润率应该会使普拉格能源相对于运营费用增加毛利润，这将提高盈利能力。分析师目前预测 2024 财年（即三年后）净利润为正。当然，如果普拉格能源已经达到这一点，那就更好了，但对于长期导向的投资者来说，再两年的负利润不会是一场灾难。</blockquote> When investing in a company such as Plug Power, the very near term is not too relevant, but what matters more is the longer-term potential of the company to grow its revenue and profits. Through the combination of ESG tailwinds, massive market growth, and its market leadership position, Plug Power seems to be well-positioned to grow its revenue for many years to come:<blockquote>投资普拉格能源这样的公司时，近期并不太重要，但更重要的是公司增加收入和利润的长期潜力。通过 ESG 顺风、巨大的市场增长及其市场领先地位的结合，普拉格能源似乎处于有利地位，可以在未来许多年内增加收入：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d6f0576ba51f219d85b18d90ccaf6f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"628\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source:Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> Analysts are currently predicting that revenues will grow at 50%+ a year over the next three years, while growth is forecasted to remain almost 30% through at least 2030, which equates to a highly attractive long-term growth outlook. There are, of course, no guarantees that this will indeed happen, as some risks to the business model remain. The company is not profitable yet, thus funding of future growth projects could theoretically become a problem. On top of that, it is possible that other players with deep pockets will try to disrupt the market or gain market share. The risk of that is, I believe, due to Plug Power's leadership position, not very large. But should the market become more competitive, non-profitable Plug Power might run into problems if it were to run into market share fights that could pressure margins.<blockquote>分析师目前预测，未来三年收入将以每年50%以上的速度增长，而至少到2030年，增长率预计将保持在近30%，这相当于极具吸引力的长期增长前景。当然，不能保证这种情况真的会发生，因为商业模式仍然存在一些风险。该公司尚未盈利，因此理论上未来增长项目的资金可能会成为一个问题。最重要的是，其他财力雄厚的参与者可能会试图扰乱市场或获得市场份额。我认为，由于 Plug Power 的领导地位，这样做的风险并不是很大。但如果市场竞争变得更加激烈，如果非盈利的普拉格能源陷入市场份额争夺战，可能会给利润率带来压力，那么它可能会遇到问题。</blockquote> Some execution risks do thus remain for sure, and investors shouldn't see the above growth projections as crystal-clear forecasts that are infallible. Instead, however, the above predictions showcase what a base-case scenario could look like, and actual results might be better or worse than that. Overall, it can be said that the longer-term outlook for Plug Power's business is excellent, as the company should be able to grow at an attractive pace for many years to come, as investors, companies, and consumers put more and more emphasis on a smaller carbon footprint. Obvious growth prospects for an industry do not, however, automatically translate into share price gains. Those that bought shares of Cisco (CSCO) at the highs during the dot.com bubble, for example, are still in the red today, 22 years later, despite the massive growth the business has experienced in that time frame. Valuations should be considered as well, and Plug Power is far from cheap today.<blockquote>因此，一些执行风险确实仍然存在，投资者不应将上述增长预测视为绝对正确的清晰预测。然而，相反，上述预测展示了基本情况可能是什么样子，实际结果可能比这更好或更差。总体而言，可以说 Plug Power 业务的长期前景非常好，因为随着投资者、公司和消费者越来越重视减少碳足迹，该公司应该能够在未来许多年以有吸引力的速度增长。然而，一个行业明显的增长前景并不会自动转化为股价上涨。例如，那些在互联网泡沫期间在高点购买思科 (CSCO) 股票的人，尽管该业务在此期间经历了巨大的增长，但 22 年后的今天仍然处于亏损状态。估值也应该考虑在内，而且今天的普拉格能源远非便宜。</blockquote> Plug Power Stock Forecast For 2030<blockquote>2030 年普拉格能源股票预测</blockquote> Today, Plug Power is trading for around 32x this year's expected revenue. If that was an earnings multiple, the stock still wouldn't be especially cheap, relative to how the average company is valued. At more than 30x sales, shares do seem very expensive. When we consider PLUG's growth outlook over the coming decade, that is relativized to some degree, but I believe that shares are still trading above fair value.<blockquote>如今，普拉格能源的交易价格约为今年预期收入的 32 倍。如果这是一个市盈率，相对于公司的平均估值，这只股票仍然不会特别便宜。销售额超过 30 倍，股票确实看起来非常昂贵。当我们考虑 PLUG 未来十年的增长前景时，这在某种程度上是相对的，但我相信股价仍然高于公允价值。</blockquote> If the analyst consensus estimate for 2030's revenues is correct, at $10.5 billion, then shares are trading at around 1.5x 2030's revenue right now. Many industrial names are trading for 1x to 2x this year's revenue right now, which indicates how much future growth is priced into PLUG's stock already. One can, of course, argue that PLUG's growth outlook in 2030 is likely still better than that of the average company today, as it seems very much possible for PLUG to grow at a double-digit rate well beyond 2030. But still, shares upside for PLUG's shares is not too great over the coming decade, I believe.<blockquote>如果分析师对 2030 年收入的一致估计是正确的，即 105 亿美元，那么目前股价的交易价格约为 2030 年收入的 1.5 倍。许多工业公司目前的交易价格是今年收入的 1 倍到 2 倍，这表明 PLUG 股票的未来增长已经有多大。当然，有人可能会说，PLUG 2030 年的增长前景可能仍然好于当今的普通公司，因为 PLUG 似乎很有可能在 2030 年之后以两位数的速度增长。但我相信，未来十年 PLUG 股价的上涨空间不会太大。</blockquote> If PLUG were to trade at a still relatively steep 3.5x revenue in 2030, this gets us to a market cap estimate of around $37billion, or roughly 2.3x as much as today. PLUG's share count will, however, not stay unchanged over the next decade, which is why returns on a per-share basis will be lower than that. If we assume that the share count climbs by just 2% a year, 2030's share count will stand at a little above 700 million. At a $37 billion market capitalization, each individual stock would then trade at around $53, which would mean a return of ~100% from today. On an annual basis, this would equate to returns of 8%. 8% annual returns are far from bad, but many things have to go right for that to happen -- PLUG has to execute well, deliver on growth projects, and avoid massive share issuance. When we also consider that this estimate requires a still rather high 3.5x sales multiple in 2030, then those returns are not great enough to warrant a buy rating, I believe. It would be different of 8% returns could come from a very de-risked blue chip with very low uncertainties, but that is not the case here. For reference, if PLUG executes well and hits growth estimates, but its shares trade for 2.5x sales in 2030, then the share price, assuming 2% annual dilution, would be $37, which would equate to just 4% annual returns. PLUG's share count has risen by around 50% over the last year alone, and even though I don't expect similar dilution in coming years, it is at least possible for PLUG's share count to rise by significantly more than 2% a year, which would pressure returns further.<blockquote>如果 PLUG 在 2030 年的交易价格仍然相对较高，为 3.5 倍，那么我们的市值估计约为 370 亿美元，大约是今天的 2.3 倍。然而，PLUG 的股票数量在未来十年内不会保持不变，这就是为什么每股回报率将低于此。如果我们假设股票数量每年仅增长2%，那么2030年的股票数量将略高于7亿股。市值为 370 亿美元，每只个股的交易价格约为 53 美元，这意味着从今天开始回报率约为 100%。按年计算，这相当于8%的回报率。8% 的年回报率远非坏事，但要实现这一目标，许多事情必须顺利进行——PLUG 必须执行良好，交付增长项目，并避免大规模发行股票。当我们还考虑到这一估计需要 2030 年仍然相当高的 3.5 倍销售倍数时，我认为这些回报还不足以保证买入评级。8% 的回报可能来自风险非常低、不确定性非常低的蓝筹股，这将是不同的，但这里的情况并非如此。作为参考，如果 PLUG 表现良好并达到增长预期，但其股票交易价格为 2030 年销售额的 2.5 倍，那么假设年稀释 2%，股价将为 37 美元，这相当于仅 4% 的年回报率。仅去年一年，PLUG 的股票数量就增加了约 50%，尽管我预计未来几年不会出现类似的稀释，但 PLUG 的股票数量至少有可能每年大幅增加 2% 以上，这将进一步给回报带来压力。</blockquote> Overall, I do not believe that investors will lose money with PLUG over the next decade or more. But I also do not believe that investors will see very attractive returns in that time frame, despite the fact that Plug Power's underlying business growth outlook is highly attractive. Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth already, and I believe that returns in the sub-10% range can also be generated through lower-risk investments, with less volatile stocks.<blockquote>总体而言，我认为投资者在未来十年或更长时间内不会因 PLUG 而亏损。但我也不相信投资者会在这段时间内看到非常有吸引力的回报，尽管 Plug Power 的基本业务增长前景非常有吸引力。股票的定价已经体现在未来的大幅增长中，我相信通过低风险投资、波动性较小的股票也可以产生低于 10% 范围内的回报。</blockquote> Conclusion: Where Could Plug Power Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>结论：10年后普拉格能源会在哪里？</blockquote> One can't know that today, but we can make educated guesses. According to may scenarios laid out above, PLUG could trade at $37-$55 in 2030, factoring in another year of growth, we could end up at $40-$60 in 2031, I believe -- if many things go right. In case there are major hiccups with growth projects, or if the share count rises more than expected, these estimates may be too high.<blockquote>今天人们无法知道这一点，但我们可以做出有根据的猜测。根据上述 5 月份的情景，PLUG 在 2030 年的交易价格可能为 37-55 美元，考虑到又一年的增长，我相信，如果很多事情进展顺利，我们在 2031 年的交易价格可能会达到 40-60 美元。如果增长项目出现重大问题，或者股份数量增长超过预期，这些估计可能会过高。</blockquote> Overall, I believe that there is considerable long-term upside potential for PLUG's shares, but expected returns in the mid-to-high-single digits range are not gigantic, and the same returns can be generated through more mature, less volatile investments with fewer uncertainties and less execution risk. I thus do think that PLUG is not a buy right here, even though I like the company's growth prospects and its position in an attractive industry.<blockquote>总体而言，我认为 PLUG 股票具有相当大的长期上涨潜力，但中高个位数范围内的预期回报并不巨大，并且可以通过更成熟、波动性较小、不确定性较小的投资产生相同的回报和较低的执行风险。因此，我确实认为 PLUG 不值得在这里购买，尽管我喜欢该公司的增长前景及其在有吸引力的行业中的地位。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后普拉格能源会在哪里？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后普拉格能源会在哪里？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-08-15 08:48\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Plug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.</li> <li>It serves low-risk customers and has a strong position in its industry.</li> <li>Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth, and investors should consider what actual per-share returns might look like before deploying money at current valuations.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fa1aea5535d99338f385c168062b218\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Fokusiert/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>普拉格能源活跃于一个有吸引力的行业，拥有巨大的增长动力。</li><li>它服务于低风险客户，在行业中拥有强大的地位。</li><li>股票的定价取决于未来的增长，投资者在以当前估值部署资金之前应该考虑实际的每股回报率。</li></ul>Focusion/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG) is active in a high-growth industry, which translates into a strong long-term business growth outlook, as long as the company can capitalize on its goals and management executes well. The company is, however, not profitable yet, and the path to meaningful net profits holds some uncertainties still. Taking a longer-term view, we can expect that Plug Power will generate positive net profits despite the fact that shares are valuing the company at a relatively high current valuation. From a risk-reward standpoint, there may be better picks available, though, despite the fact that I believe that shares will trade materially higher in 2031.<blockquote>普拉格能源公司 (PLUG) 活跃于高增长行业，只要公司能够实现其目标并且管理层执行良好，这就会转化为强劲的长期业务增长前景。然而，该公司尚未盈利，实现有意义的净利润之路仍存在一些不确定性。从长远来看，我们可以预计普拉格能源将产生正净利润，尽管该公司的股票目前估值相对较高。不过，从风险回报的角度来看，可能会有更好的选择，尽管我相信 2031 年股票交易将大幅走高。</blockquote> Plug Power Stock Price<blockquote>普拉格能源股价</blockquote> Plug Power, Inc. has seen its share price move up and down violently over the last year:<blockquote>普拉格能源公司的股价在过去一年里剧烈上下波动：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d940297249151eddcccf6440d20ef031\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Shares trade 130% higher than 12 months ago, but at the same time, shares trade at just one-third of the all-time high today. In early 2021, shares exploded upwards at a time when other renewable/new energy and related stocks, including EV plays, benefited from massive investor enthusiasm. Since then, enthusiasm seems to have cooled, and shares have reverted back to the $20s. At current prices, Plug Power, Inc. is valued at $16 billion based on a diluted share count of a little less than 600 million. Analysts are pretty bullish on the stock right now, as the consensus price target of $41 implies an upside potential of around 50% from current prices throughout the next year. It should be noted, however, that the analyst consensus price target has been lowered in recent months, and may continue to be lowered going forward. Due to non-existent profits PLUG can't be valued on an earnings basis, but shares trade for around 30x this year's revenue, which is quite expensive.<blockquote>股价比 12 个月前上涨了 130%，但与此同时，今天的股价仅为历史高点的三分之一。2021年初，当其他可再生能源/新能源及相关股票（包括电动汽车）受益于投资者的巨大热情时，股价爆炸式上涨。此后，热情似乎已经冷却，股价已回到20美元左右。按当前价格计算，普拉格能源公司的估值为 160 亿美元，按稀释后略低于 6 亿股计算。分析师目前相当看好该股，因为 41 美元的一致目标价意味着明年全年较当前价格上涨约 50%。但需要注意的是，分析师一致的目标价近几个月来有所下调，未来可能会继续下调。由于不存在利润，PLUG 无法根据盈利进行估值，但股票交易价格约为今年收入的 30 倍，这相当昂贵。</blockquote> Plug Power Stock Prediction<blockquote>普拉格能源股票预测</blockquote> Plug Power, Inc. is active in an absolute growth industry, as hydrogen fuel cells will see huge demand growth in coming years as they allow for an environmentally friendly alternative to other fuels. Plug Power, as a turnkey provider in a market leadership position for this technology, is well-positioned to capitalize on this megatrend. Through a network of global partnerships, including with Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP), Plug Power is working on growing the green hydrogen industryglobally:<blockquote>普拉格能源公司活跃于一个绝对增长的行业，因为氢燃料电池在未来几年将出现巨大的需求增长，因为它们提供了其他燃料的环保替代品。普拉格能源作为该技术市场领先地位的交钥匙提供商，完全有能力利用这一大趋势。通过包括 Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP) 在内的全球合作伙伴网络，普拉格能源正在致力于在全球发展绿色氢产业：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a8e3b57882e429c9eace431bd1f541\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Plug Power presentation<blockquote>资料来源：普拉格能源介绍</blockquote> Plug Power's green hydrogen can be used for powering trucks, busses, and other vehicles, while the company is also providing environmentally friendly alternatives to diesel generators in the megawatt scale range that can be used by utilities, for example. The company is, on top of that, also working on other ventures that are not ready to be commercialized yet, such as powering aircraft with hydrogen. Plug Power will have at least 5 hydrogen plants running in the US in 2024, i.e. three years from now, with more projects being in the pipeline both in the US and in overseas markets such as Europe.<blockquote>Plug Power 的绿色氢可用于为卡车、公共汽车和其他车辆提供动力，同时该公司还提供兆瓦级柴油发电机的环保替代品，可供公用事业公司使用。除此之外，该公司还在开展其他尚未准备好商业化的项目，例如用氢气为飞机提供动力。到 2024 年（即三年后），普拉格能源将在美国运营至少 5 座氢工厂，美国和欧洲等海外市场还有更多项目正在筹备中。</blockquote> 80% of Plug Power's customers are what the company calls blue chip customers, which includes companies such as Amazon (AMZN). These companies are oftentimes highly inclined to improve their CO2 footprint in order to receive better ESG ratings, and at the same time, these are low-risk customers as their strong balance sheets and cash flows mean that the risk of liquidity or solvency issues is negligible. Overall, Plug Power thus works with attractive counterparts, and their financial firepower means that Plug Power is not forced to sell its products at bargain prices, which is why the company has been able to generate relatively attractive product gross margins in the 30s in recent quarters.<blockquote>Plug Power 80%的客户是评级公司的蓝筹股客户，其中包括亚马逊（AMZN）等公司。这些公司通常非常倾向于改善其二氧化碳足迹，以获得更好的ESG评级，同时，这些公司是低风险客户，因为其强劲的资产负债表和现金流意味着流动性或偿付能力问题的风险可以忽略不计。总体而言，普拉格能源因此与有吸引力的同行合作，他们的财务火力意味着普拉格能源不会被迫以便宜的价格销售其产品，这就是为什么该公司能够在最近几个季度产生相对有吸引力的产品毛利率 30 多岁。</blockquote> Due to the still relatively small scale of the company, Plug Power is not profitable on a net basis or operating basis, however. The company's operating expenses, relative to the revenues that Plug Power generates, are still too high for now. This should, however, change over time, as operating leverage and improving product margins should allow Plug Power to grow gross profits relative to operating expenses, which will result in improving profitability. Analysts are currently predicting positive net profits for fiscal 2024, or three years from now. It would, of course, be better if Plug Power had hit that point already, but for long-term oriented investors, two more years of negative profits will not be a disaster.<blockquote>然而，由于该公司的规模仍然相对较小，普拉格能源在净额基础上或在经营基础上都没有盈利。相对于普拉格能源产生的收入，该公司的运营费用目前仍然过高。然而，随着时间的推移，这种情况应该会发生变化，因为运营杠杆和提高产品利润率应该会使普拉格能源相对于运营费用增加毛利润，这将提高盈利能力。分析师目前预测 2024 财年（即三年后）净利润为正。当然，如果普拉格能源已经达到这一点，那就更好了，但对于长期导向的投资者来说，再两年的负利润不会是一场灾难。</blockquote> When investing in a company such as Plug Power, the very near term is not too relevant, but what matters more is the longer-term potential of the company to grow its revenue and profits. Through the combination of ESG tailwinds, massive market growth, and its market leadership position, Plug Power seems to be well-positioned to grow its revenue for many years to come:<blockquote>投资普拉格能源这样的公司时，近期并不太重要，但更重要的是公司增加收入和利润的长期潜力。通过 ESG 顺风、巨大的市场增长及其市场领先地位的结合，普拉格能源似乎处于有利地位，可以在未来许多年内增加收入：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d6f0576ba51f219d85b18d90ccaf6f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"628\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source:Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> Analysts are currently predicting that revenues will grow at 50%+ a year over the next three years, while growth is forecasted to remain almost 30% through at least 2030, which equates to a highly attractive long-term growth outlook. There are, of course, no guarantees that this will indeed happen, as some risks to the business model remain. The company is not profitable yet, thus funding of future growth projects could theoretically become a problem. On top of that, it is possible that other players with deep pockets will try to disrupt the market or gain market share. The risk of that is, I believe, due to Plug Power's leadership position, not very large. But should the market become more competitive, non-profitable Plug Power might run into problems if it were to run into market share fights that could pressure margins.<blockquote>分析师目前预测，未来三年收入将以每年50%以上的速度增长，而至少到2030年，增长率预计将保持在近30%，这相当于极具吸引力的长期增长前景。当然，不能保证这种情况真的会发生，因为商业模式仍然存在一些风险。该公司尚未盈利，因此理论上未来增长项目的资金可能会成为一个问题。最重要的是，其他财力雄厚的参与者可能会试图扰乱市场或获得市场份额。我认为，由于 Plug Power 的领导地位，这样做的风险并不是很大。但如果市场竞争变得更加激烈，如果非盈利的普拉格能源陷入市场份额争夺战，可能会给利润率带来压力，那么它可能会遇到问题。</blockquote> Some execution risks do thus remain for sure, and investors shouldn't see the above growth projections as crystal-clear forecasts that are infallible. Instead, however, the above predictions showcase what a base-case scenario could look like, and actual results might be better or worse than that. Overall, it can be said that the longer-term outlook for Plug Power's business is excellent, as the company should be able to grow at an attractive pace for many years to come, as investors, companies, and consumers put more and more emphasis on a smaller carbon footprint. Obvious growth prospects for an industry do not, however, automatically translate into share price gains. Those that bought shares of Cisco (CSCO) at the highs during the dot.com bubble, for example, are still in the red today, 22 years later, despite the massive growth the business has experienced in that time frame. Valuations should be considered as well, and Plug Power is far from cheap today.<blockquote>因此，一些执行风险确实仍然存在，投资者不应将上述增长预测视为绝对正确的清晰预测。然而，相反，上述预测展示了基本情况可能是什么样子，实际结果可能比这更好或更差。总体而言，可以说 Plug Power 业务的长期前景非常好，因为随着投资者、公司和消费者越来越重视减少碳足迹，该公司应该能够在未来许多年以有吸引力的速度增长。然而，一个行业明显的增长前景并不会自动转化为股价上涨。例如，那些在互联网泡沫期间在高点购买思科 (CSCO) 股票的人，尽管该业务在此期间经历了巨大的增长，但 22 年后的今天仍然处于亏损状态。估值也应该考虑在内，而且今天的普拉格能源远非便宜。</blockquote> Plug Power Stock Forecast For 2030<blockquote>2030 年普拉格能源股票预测</blockquote> Today, Plug Power is trading for around 32x this year's expected revenue. If that was an earnings multiple, the stock still wouldn't be especially cheap, relative to how the average company is valued. At more than 30x sales, shares do seem very expensive. When we consider PLUG's growth outlook over the coming decade, that is relativized to some degree, but I believe that shares are still trading above fair value.<blockquote>如今，普拉格能源的交易价格约为今年预期收入的 32 倍。如果这是一个市盈率，相对于公司的平均估值，这只股票仍然不会特别便宜。销售额超过 30 倍，股票确实看起来非常昂贵。当我们考虑 PLUG 未来十年的增长前景时，这在某种程度上是相对的，但我相信股价仍然高于公允价值。</blockquote> If the analyst consensus estimate for 2030's revenues is correct, at $10.5 billion, then shares are trading at around 1.5x 2030's revenue right now. Many industrial names are trading for 1x to 2x this year's revenue right now, which indicates how much future growth is priced into PLUG's stock already. One can, of course, argue that PLUG's growth outlook in 2030 is likely still better than that of the average company today, as it seems very much possible for PLUG to grow at a double-digit rate well beyond 2030. But still, shares upside for PLUG's shares is not too great over the coming decade, I believe.<blockquote>如果分析师对 2030 年收入的一致估计是正确的，即 105 亿美元，那么目前股价的交易价格约为 2030 年收入的 1.5 倍。许多工业公司目前的交易价格是今年收入的 1 倍到 2 倍，这表明 PLUG 股票的未来增长已经有多大。当然，有人可能会说，PLUG 2030 年的增长前景可能仍然好于当今的普通公司，因为 PLUG 似乎很有可能在 2030 年之后以两位数的速度增长。但我相信，未来十年 PLUG 股价的上涨空间不会太大。</blockquote> If PLUG were to trade at a still relatively steep 3.5x revenue in 2030, this gets us to a market cap estimate of around $37billion, or roughly 2.3x as much as today. PLUG's share count will, however, not stay unchanged over the next decade, which is why returns on a per-share basis will be lower than that. If we assume that the share count climbs by just 2% a year, 2030's share count will stand at a little above 700 million. At a $37 billion market capitalization, each individual stock would then trade at around $53, which would mean a return of ~100% from today. On an annual basis, this would equate to returns of 8%. 8% annual returns are far from bad, but many things have to go right for that to happen -- PLUG has to execute well, deliver on growth projects, and avoid massive share issuance. When we also consider that this estimate requires a still rather high 3.5x sales multiple in 2030, then those returns are not great enough to warrant a buy rating, I believe. It would be different of 8% returns could come from a very de-risked blue chip with very low uncertainties, but that is not the case here. For reference, if PLUG executes well and hits growth estimates, but its shares trade for 2.5x sales in 2030, then the share price, assuming 2% annual dilution, would be $37, which would equate to just 4% annual returns. PLUG's share count has risen by around 50% over the last year alone, and even though I don't expect similar dilution in coming years, it is at least possible for PLUG's share count to rise by significantly more than 2% a year, which would pressure returns further.<blockquote>如果 PLUG 在 2030 年的交易价格仍然相对较高，为 3.5 倍，那么我们的市值估计约为 370 亿美元，大约是今天的 2.3 倍。然而，PLUG 的股票数量在未来十年内不会保持不变，这就是为什么每股回报率将低于此。如果我们假设股票数量每年仅增长2%，那么2030年的股票数量将略高于7亿股。市值为 370 亿美元，每只个股的交易价格约为 53 美元，这意味着从今天开始回报率约为 100%。按年计算，这相当于8%的回报率。8% 的年回报率远非坏事，但要实现这一目标，许多事情必须顺利进行——PLUG 必须执行良好，交付增长项目，并避免大规模发行股票。当我们还考虑到这一估计需要 2030 年仍然相当高的 3.5 倍销售倍数时，我认为这些回报还不足以保证买入评级。8% 的回报可能来自风险非常低、不确定性非常低的蓝筹股，这将是不同的，但这里的情况并非如此。作为参考，如果 PLUG 表现良好并达到增长预期，但其股票交易价格为 2030 年销售额的 2.5 倍，那么假设年稀释 2%，股价将为 37 美元，这相当于仅 4% 的年回报率。仅去年一年，PLUG 的股票数量就增加了约 50%，尽管我预计未来几年不会出现类似的稀释，但 PLUG 的股票数量至少有可能每年大幅增加 2% 以上，这将进一步给回报带来压力。</blockquote> Overall, I do not believe that investors will lose money with PLUG over the next decade or more. But I also do not believe that investors will see very attractive returns in that time frame, despite the fact that Plug Power's underlying business growth outlook is highly attractive. Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth already, and I believe that returns in the sub-10% range can also be generated through lower-risk investments, with less volatile stocks.<blockquote>总体而言，我认为投资者在未来十年或更长时间内不会因 PLUG 而亏损。但我也不相信投资者会在这段时间内看到非常有吸引力的回报，尽管 Plug Power 的基本业务增长前景非常有吸引力。股票的定价已经体现在未来的大幅增长中，我相信通过低风险投资、波动性较小的股票也可以产生低于 10% 范围内的回报。</blockquote> Conclusion: Where Could Plug Power Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>结论：10年后普拉格能源会在哪里？</blockquote> One can't know that today, but we can make educated guesses. According to may scenarios laid out above, PLUG could trade at $37-$55 in 2030, factoring in another year of growth, we could end up at $40-$60 in 2031, I believe -- if many things go right. In case there are major hiccups with growth projects, or if the share count rises more than expected, these estimates may be too high.<blockquote>今天人们无法知道这一点，但我们可以做出有根据的猜测。根据上述 5 月份的情景，PLUG 在 2030 年的交易价格可能为 37-55 美元，考虑到又一年的增长，我相信，如果很多事情进展顺利，我们在 2031 年的交易价格可能会达到 40-60 美元。如果增长项目出现重大问题，或者股份数量增长超过预期，这些估计可能会过高。</blockquote> Overall, I believe that there is considerable long-term upside potential for PLUG's shares, but expected returns in the mid-to-high-single digits range are not gigantic, and the same returns can be generated through more mature, less volatile investments with fewer uncertainties and less execution risk. I thus do think that PLUG is not a buy right here, even though I like the company's growth prospects and its position in an attractive industry.<blockquote>总体而言，我认为 PLUG 股票具有相当大的长期上涨潜力，但中高个位数范围内的预期回报并不巨大，并且可以通过更成熟、波动性较小、不确定性较小的投资产生相同的回报和较低的执行风险。因此，我确实认为 PLUG 不值得在这里购买，尽管我喜欢该公司的增长前景及其在有吸引力的行业中的地位。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449266-plug-power-stock-in-10-years\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449266-plug-power-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133270372","content_text":"Summary\n\nPlug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.\nIt serves low-risk customers and has a strong position in its industry.\nShares are pricing in a lot of future growth, and investors should consider what actual per-share returns might look like before deploying money at current valuations.\n\nFokusiert/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nPlug Power, Inc. (PLUG) is active in a high-growth industry, which translates into a strong long-term business growth outlook, as long as the company can capitalize on its goals and management executes well. The company is, however, not profitable yet, and the path to meaningful net profits holds some uncertainties still. Taking a longer-term view, we can expect that Plug Power will generate positive net profits despite the fact that shares are valuing the company at a relatively high current valuation. From a risk-reward standpoint, there may be better picks available, though, despite the fact that I believe that shares will trade materially higher in 2031.\nPlug Power Stock Price\nPlug Power, Inc. has seen its share price move up and down violently over the last year:\nData by YCharts\nShares trade 130% higher than 12 months ago, but at the same time, shares trade at just one-third of the all-time high today. In early 2021, shares exploded upwards at a time when other renewable/new energy and related stocks, including EV plays, benefited from massive investor enthusiasm. Since then, enthusiasm seems to have cooled, and shares have reverted back to the $20s. At current prices, Plug Power, Inc. is valued at $16 billion based on a diluted share count of a little less than 600 million. Analysts are pretty bullish on the stock right now, as the consensus price target of $41 implies an upside potential of around 50% from current prices throughout the next year. It should be noted, however, that the analyst consensus price target has been lowered in recent months, and may continue to be lowered going forward. Due to non-existent profits PLUG can't be valued on an earnings basis, but shares trade for around 30x this year's revenue, which is quite expensive.\nPlug Power Stock Prediction\nPlug Power, Inc. is active in an absolute growth industry, as hydrogen fuel cells will see huge demand growth in coming years as they allow for an environmentally friendly alternative to other fuels. Plug Power, as a turnkey provider in a market leadership position for this technology, is well-positioned to capitalize on this megatrend. Through a network of global partnerships, including with Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP), Plug Power is working on growing the green hydrogen industryglobally:\nSource: Plug Power presentation\nPlug Power's green hydrogen can be used for powering trucks, busses, and other vehicles, while the company is also providing environmentally friendly alternatives to diesel generators in the megawatt scale range that can be used by utilities, for example. The company is, on top of that, also working on other ventures that are not ready to be commercialized yet, such as powering aircraft with hydrogen. Plug Power will have at least 5 hydrogen plants running in the US in 2024, i.e. three years from now, with more projects being in the pipeline both in the US and in overseas markets such as Europe.\n80% of Plug Power's customers are what the company calls blue chip customers, which includes companies such as Amazon (AMZN). These companies are oftentimes highly inclined to improve their CO2 footprint in order to receive better ESG ratings, and at the same time, these are low-risk customers as their strong balance sheets and cash flows mean that the risk of liquidity or solvency issues is negligible. Overall, Plug Power thus works with attractive counterparts, and their financial firepower means that Plug Power is not forced to sell its products at bargain prices, which is why the company has been able to generate relatively attractive product gross margins in the 30s in recent quarters.\nDue to the still relatively small scale of the company, Plug Power is not profitable on a net basis or operating basis, however. The company's operating expenses, relative to the revenues that Plug Power generates, are still too high for now. This should, however, change over time, as operating leverage and improving product margins should allow Plug Power to grow gross profits relative to operating expenses, which will result in improving profitability. Analysts are currently predicting positive net profits for fiscal 2024, or three years from now. It would, of course, be better if Plug Power had hit that point already, but for long-term oriented investors, two more years of negative profits will not be a disaster.\nWhen investing in a company such as Plug Power, the very near term is not too relevant, but what matters more is the longer-term potential of the company to grow its revenue and profits. Through the combination of ESG tailwinds, massive market growth, and its market leadership position, Plug Power seems to be well-positioned to grow its revenue for many years to come:\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nAnalysts are currently predicting that revenues will grow at 50%+ a year over the next three years, while growth is forecasted to remain almost 30% through at least 2030, which equates to a highly attractive long-term growth outlook. There are, of course, no guarantees that this will indeed happen, as some risks to the business model remain. The company is not profitable yet, thus funding of future growth projects could theoretically become a problem. On top of that, it is possible that other players with deep pockets will try to disrupt the market or gain market share. The risk of that is, I believe, due to Plug Power's leadership position, not very large. But should the market become more competitive, non-profitable Plug Power might run into problems if it were to run into market share fights that could pressure margins.\nSome execution risks do thus remain for sure, and investors shouldn't see the above growth projections as crystal-clear forecasts that are infallible. Instead, however, the above predictions showcase what a base-case scenario could look like, and actual results might be better or worse than that. Overall, it can be said that the longer-term outlook for Plug Power's business is excellent, as the company should be able to grow at an attractive pace for many years to come, as investors, companies, and consumers put more and more emphasis on a smaller carbon footprint. Obvious growth prospects for an industry do not, however, automatically translate into share price gains. Those that bought shares of Cisco (CSCO) at the highs during the dot.com bubble, for example, are still in the red today, 22 years later, despite the massive growth the business has experienced in that time frame. Valuations should be considered as well, and Plug Power is far from cheap today.\nPlug Power Stock Forecast For 2030\nToday, Plug Power is trading for around 32x this year's expected revenue. If that was an earnings multiple, the stock still wouldn't be especially cheap, relative to how the average company is valued. At more than 30x sales, shares do seem very expensive. When we consider PLUG's growth outlook over the coming decade, that is relativized to some degree, but I believe that shares are still trading above fair value.\nIf the analyst consensus estimate for 2030's revenues is correct, at $10.5 billion, then shares are trading at around 1.5x 2030's revenue right now. Many industrial names are trading for 1x to 2x this year's revenue right now, which indicates how much future growth is priced into PLUG's stock already. One can, of course, argue that PLUG's growth outlook in 2030 is likely still better than that of the average company today, as it seems very much possible for PLUG to grow at a double-digit rate well beyond 2030. But still, shares upside for PLUG's shares is not too great over the coming decade, I believe.\nIf PLUG were to trade at a still relatively steep 3.5x revenue in 2030, this gets us to a market cap estimate of around $37billion, or roughly 2.3x as much as today. PLUG's share count will, however, not stay unchanged over the next decade, which is why returns on a per-share basis will be lower than that. If we assume that the share count climbs by just 2% a year, 2030's share count will stand at a little above 700 million. At a $37 billion market capitalization, each individual stock would then trade at around $53, which would mean a return of ~100% from today. On an annual basis, this would equate to returns of 8%. 8% annual returns are far from bad, but many things have to go right for that to happen -- PLUG has to execute well, deliver on growth projects, and avoid massive share issuance. When we also consider that this estimate requires a still rather high 3.5x sales multiple in 2030, then those returns are not great enough to warrant a buy rating, I believe. It would be different of 8% returns could come from a very de-risked blue chip with very low uncertainties, but that is not the case here. For reference, if PLUG executes well and hits growth estimates, but its shares trade for 2.5x sales in 2030, then the share price, assuming 2% annual dilution, would be $37, which would equate to just 4% annual returns. PLUG's share count has risen by around 50% over the last year alone, and even though I don't expect similar dilution in coming years, it is at least possible for PLUG's share count to rise by significantly more than 2% a year, which would pressure returns further.\nOverall, I do not believe that investors will lose money with PLUG over the next decade or more. But I also do not believe that investors will see very attractive returns in that time frame, despite the fact that Plug Power's underlying business growth outlook is highly attractive. Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth already, and I believe that returns in the sub-10% range can also be generated through lower-risk investments, with less volatile stocks.\nConclusion: Where Could Plug Power Be In 10 Years?\nOne can't know that today, but we can make educated guesses. According to may scenarios laid out above, PLUG could trade at $37-$55 in 2030, factoring in another year of growth, we could end up at $40-$60 in 2031, I believe -- if many things go right. In case there are major hiccups with growth projects, or if the share count rises more than expected, these estimates may be too high.\nOverall, I believe that there is considerable long-term upside potential for PLUG's shares, but expected returns in the mid-to-high-single digits range are not gigantic, and the same returns can be generated through more mature, less volatile investments with fewer uncertainties and less execution risk. I thus do think that PLUG is not a buy right here, even though I like the company's growth prospects and its position in an attractive industry.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLUG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2936,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/830022082"}