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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":829584294,"tweetId":"829584294","gmtCreate":1633527527685,"gmtModify":1633527562090,"author":{"id":3527303552443900,"idStr":"3527303552443900","authorId":3527303552443900,"authorIdStr":"3527303552443900","name":"458fd99c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":50,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Gg</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Gg</body></html>","text":"Gg","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829584294","repostId":1168850593,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168850593","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633526214,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168850593?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 21:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Usually Gain in the Fourth Quarter. Why This One Is Off to a Bad Start.<blockquote>股票通常在第四季度上涨。为什么这部电影开局不利。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168850593","media":"Barron's","summary":"October marks the start of the fourth quarter, often a strong three months for the stock market. But","content":"October marks the start of the fourth quarter, often a strong three months for the stock market. But this one is off to a shaky start—a warning that investors shouldn’t ignore about what the rest of the year might bring.<blockquote>十月标志着第四季度的开始，通常是股市强劲的三个月。但今年的开局并不稳定--投资者不应忽视今年剩余时间可能带来的情况这一警告。</blockquote> The red flag isn’t a red herring: TheS&amp;P 500has risen for 79% of fourth quarters since 1950, according to strategists at commercial bank Truist. The average move was 4% in gains.<blockquote>危险信号不是转移注意力： 据商业银行 Truist 的策略师称，自 1950 年以来，标准普尔 500 指数在第四季度上涨了 79%。平均涨幅为 4%。</blockquote> But on Monday, the start of October’s first full trading weekthe S&amp;P 500 was selling off—like it did for much of September. The index ended the day down 1.3%.<blockquote>但在周一，10 月份第一个完整交易周开始时，标普500出现了抛售--就像 9 月份的大部分时间一样。该指数收盘下跌1.3%。</blockquote> The reasons why are many, but let’s start with a little more history.<blockquote>原因有很多，但让我们从更多的历史开始。</blockquote> After a bad September—the S&amp;P 500 was down 5% last month—a bad October usually follows. The index has gained in just 54% of Octobers.&nbsp;On average, a down September translates to an October loss of 0.4%, according to Bank of America.<blockquote>糟糕的 9 月份（标普500上个月下跌了 5%）之后，糟糕的 10 月份通常会随之而来。该指数在 10 月份仅上涨了 54%。根据美国银行的数据，平均而言，9 月份的下跌相当于 10 月份下跌 0.4%。</blockquote> Then, there’s the hard reality that the market is due for a correction—a drop of 10% or more. Before last week, the S&amp;P 500 hadn’t closed more than 5% below its all-time closing highin a year.<blockquote>此外，还有一个残酷的现实，那就是市场将出现调整--下跌 10% 或更多。在上周之前，标普500的收盘价比一年来的历史收盘高点低不超过 5%。</blockquote> “I do not think we have seen the bottom yet in stocks,” writes Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial. “While September’s stock market declines were uncomfortable, they were far from a traditional 10% market correction.”<blockquote>“ZEGA Financial 首席执行官 Jay Pestrichelli 写道：”我认为我们还没有看到股市的底部。“虽然 9 月份的股市下跌令人不安，但与传统的 10% 的市场回调相去甚远。”</blockquote> Now consider the risks to economic and corporate fundamentals lurking in the background.<blockquote>现在考虑一下潜伏在背景中的经济和企业基本面风险。</blockquote> Inflation isn’t going away. Higher material and labor costs—driven in part by supply shortages—aredenting profit marginsfor some companies. For the broader market, rising prices have increasedthe likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates next year.If the Fed does hike rates, the economy could grow more slowly, especially since inflation is already eating into economic demand.<blockquote>通货膨胀不会消失。材料和劳动力成本上升（部分原因是供应短缺）正在蚕食一些公司的利润率。对于大盘而言，物价上涨增加了美联储明年提高短期利率的可能性。如果美联储确实加息，经济增长可能会更慢，特别是因为通货膨胀已经侵蚀了经济需求。</blockquote> “Inflation really is picking up and they [the Fed] can’t just let inflation run rampant,” says David Miller co-founder and chief investment officer of Catalyst Capital Advisors. “Markets are generally concerned until there’s a clear picture about what the Fed’s actually going to do.”<blockquote>“Catalyst Capital Advisors 联合创始人兼首席投资官大卫-米勒（David Miller）说：”通胀确实在回升，他们（美联储）不能让通胀肆虐。“在美联储实际要做什么之前，市场普遍感到担忧。”</blockquote> Lastly, beware of rising long-dated bond yields. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled that the central bank probably will begin “tapering,” or reducing its monthly bond buying before the end of the year.<blockquote>最后，谨防长期债券收益率上升。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）已表示，美联储可能会在年底前开始 “缩减规模 ”或减少每月债券购买量。</blockquote> Less money moving into the bond market reduces bond prices and lifts their yields. That makes future profits less valuable. Already, the average forward one-year earnings multiple on the S&amp;P 500 is at 20 times, lower than the 22 times it had hit earlier in the year.<blockquote>进入债券市场的资金减少会降低债券价格并提高收益率。这使得未来利润的价值降低。标普500的平均远期一年市盈率已经为 20 倍，低于今年早些时候的 22 倍。</blockquote> So the takeaway? Let history be a guide—and let the dust settle on the fundamental risks.<blockquote>那么外卖呢？让历史成为指南——让根本风险尘埃落定。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Usually Gain in the Fourth Quarter. Why This One Is Off to a Bad Start.<blockquote>股票通常在第四季度上涨。为什么这部电影开局不利。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Usually Gain in the Fourth Quarter. Why This One Is Off to a Bad Start.<blockquote>股票通常在第四季度上涨。为什么这部电影开局不利。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-10-06 21:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOctober marks the start of the fourth quarter, often a strong three months for the stock market. But this one is off to a shaky start—a warning that investors shouldn’t ignore about what the rest of the year might bring.<blockquote>十月标志着第四季度的开始，通常是股市强劲的三个月。但今年的开局并不稳定--投资者不应忽视今年剩余时间可能带来的情况这一警告。</blockquote> The red flag isn’t a red herring: TheS&amp;P 500has risen for 79% of fourth quarters since 1950, according to strategists at commercial bank Truist. The average move was 4% in gains.<blockquote>危险信号不是转移注意力： 据商业银行 Truist 的策略师称，自 1950 年以来，标准普尔 500 指数在第四季度上涨了 79%。平均涨幅为 4%。</blockquote> But on Monday, the start of October’s first full trading weekthe S&amp;P 500 was selling off—like it did for much of September. The index ended the day down 1.3%.<blockquote>但在周一，10 月份第一个完整交易周开始时，标普500出现了抛售--就像 9 月份的大部分时间一样。该指数收盘下跌1.3%。</blockquote> The reasons why are many, but let’s start with a little more history.<blockquote>原因有很多，但让我们从更多的历史开始。</blockquote> After a bad September—the S&amp;P 500 was down 5% last month—a bad October usually follows. The index has gained in just 54% of Octobers.&nbsp;On average, a down September translates to an October loss of 0.4%, according to Bank of America.<blockquote>糟糕的 9 月份（标普500上个月下跌了 5%）之后，糟糕的 10 月份通常会随之而来。该指数在 10 月份仅上涨了 54%。根据美国银行的数据，平均而言，9 月份的下跌相当于 10 月份下跌 0.4%。</blockquote> Then, there’s the hard reality that the market is due for a correction—a drop of 10% or more. Before last week, the S&amp;P 500 hadn’t closed more than 5% below its all-time closing highin a year.<blockquote>此外，还有一个残酷的现实，那就是市场将出现调整--下跌 10% 或更多。在上周之前，标普500的收盘价比一年来的历史收盘高点低不超过 5%。</blockquote> “I do not think we have seen the bottom yet in stocks,” writes Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial. “While September’s stock market declines were uncomfortable, they were far from a traditional 10% market correction.”<blockquote>“ZEGA Financial 首席执行官 Jay Pestrichelli 写道：”我认为我们还没有看到股市的底部。“虽然 9 月份的股市下跌令人不安，但与传统的 10% 的市场回调相去甚远。”</blockquote> Now consider the risks to economic and corporate fundamentals lurking in the background.<blockquote>现在考虑一下潜伏在背景中的经济和企业基本面风险。</blockquote> Inflation isn’t going away. Higher material and labor costs—driven in part by supply shortages—aredenting profit marginsfor some companies. For the broader market, rising prices have increasedthe likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates next year.If the Fed does hike rates, the economy could grow more slowly, especially since inflation is already eating into economic demand.<blockquote>通货膨胀不会消失。材料和劳动力成本上升（部分原因是供应短缺）正在蚕食一些公司的利润率。对于大盘而言，物价上涨增加了美联储明年提高短期利率的可能性。如果美联储确实加息，经济增长可能会更慢，特别是因为通货膨胀已经侵蚀了经济需求。</blockquote> “Inflation really is picking up and they [the Fed] can’t just let inflation run rampant,” says David Miller co-founder and chief investment officer of Catalyst Capital Advisors. “Markets are generally concerned until there’s a clear picture about what the Fed’s actually going to do.”<blockquote>“Catalyst Capital Advisors 联合创始人兼首席投资官大卫-米勒（David Miller）说：”通胀确实在回升，他们（美联储）不能让通胀肆虐。“在美联储实际要做什么之前，市场普遍感到担忧。”</blockquote> Lastly, beware of rising long-dated bond yields. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled that the central bank probably will begin “tapering,” or reducing its monthly bond buying before the end of the year.<blockquote>最后，谨防长期债券收益率上升。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）已表示，美联储可能会在年底前开始 “缩减规模 ”或减少每月债券购买量。</blockquote> Less money moving into the bond market reduces bond prices and lifts their yields. That makes future profits less valuable. Already, the average forward one-year earnings multiple on the S&amp;P 500 is at 20 times, lower than the 22 times it had hit earlier in the year.<blockquote>进入债券市场的资金减少会降低债券价格并提高收益率。这使得未来利润的价值降低。标普500的平均远期一年市盈率已经为 20 倍，低于今年早些时候的 22 倍。</blockquote> So the takeaway? Let history be a guide—and let the dust settle on the fundamental risks.<blockquote>那么外卖呢？让历史成为指南——让根本风险尘埃落定。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-outlook-fourth-quarter-51633380291?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-outlook-fourth-quarter-51633380291?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168850593","content_text":"October marks the start of the fourth quarter, often a strong three months for the stock market. But this one is off to a shaky start—a warning that investors shouldn’t ignore about what the rest of the year might bring.\nThe red flag isn’t a red herring: TheS&P 500has risen for 79% of fourth quarters since 1950, according to strategists at commercial bank Truist. The average move was 4% in gains.\nBut on Monday, the start of October’s first full trading weekthe S&P 500 was selling off—like it did for much of September. The index ended the day down 1.3%.\nThe reasons why are many, but let’s start with a little more history.\nAfter a bad September—the S&P 500 was down 5% last month—a bad October usually follows. The index has gained in just 54% of Octobers. On average, a down September translates to an October loss of 0.4%, according to Bank of America.\nThen, there’s the hard reality that the market is due for a correction—a drop of 10% or more. Before last week, the S&P 500 hadn’t closed more than 5% below its all-time closing highin a year.\n“I do not think we have seen the bottom yet in stocks,” writes Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial. “While September’s stock market declines were uncomfortable, they were far from a traditional 10% market correction.”\nNow consider the risks to economic and corporate fundamentals lurking in the background.\nInflation isn’t going away. Higher material and labor costs—driven in part by supply shortages—aredenting profit marginsfor some companies. For the broader market, rising prices have increasedthe likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates next year.If the Fed does hike rates, the economy could grow more slowly, especially since inflation is already eating into economic demand.\n“Inflation really is picking up and they [the Fed] can’t just let inflation run rampant,” says David Miller co-founder and chief investment officer of Catalyst Capital Advisors. “Markets are generally concerned until there’s a clear picture about what the Fed’s actually going to do.”\nLastly, beware of rising long-dated bond yields. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled that the central bank probably will begin “tapering,” or reducing its monthly bond buying before the end of the year.\nLess money moving into the bond market reduces bond prices and lifts their yields. That makes future profits less valuable. Already, the average forward one-year earnings multiple on the S&P 500 is at 20 times, lower than the 22 times it had hit earlier in the year.\nSo the takeaway? Let history be a guide—and let the dust settle on the fundamental risks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":581,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/829584294"}