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2021-10-18
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Peloton: A Battleground Stock Nearing A Crucial Moment<blockquote>Peloton：接近关键时刻的战场股票</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":827775636,"tweetId":"827775636","gmtCreate":1634529309215,"gmtModify":1634529309487,"author":{"id":3583641915640836,"idStr":"3583641915640836","authorId":3583641915640836,"authorIdStr":"3583641915640836","name":"4872be6","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":12,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Comment </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Comment </p></body></html>","text":"Comment","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827775636","repostId":1100450732,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100450732","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634527185,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100450732?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-18 11:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Peloton: A Battleground Stock Nearing A Crucial Moment<blockquote>Peloton：接近关键时刻的战场股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100450732","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPTON surprised with poor guidance for FQ1 while keeping full year guidance high, reflecting","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>PTON surprised with poor guidance for FQ1 while keeping full year guidance high, reflecting what would be a string of very high growth quarters.</li> <li>Multiple outlets for growth exist - a unique deal with UNH could boost interest levels, and international and commercial could offer compelling growth.</li> <li>Just as many headwinds remain, with the company facing increased logistics expenses, weakened margins, large cash outflows, and more.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff90f9d488e3dc0a05a65ac162a9726\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael Loccisano/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PTON对第一季度的糟糕指导感到惊讶，同时将全年指导保持在较高水平，这反映了一系列非常高增长的季度。</li><li>存在多种增长渠道——与UNH的独特交易可以提高兴趣水平，国际和商业可以提供引人注目的增长。</li><li>尽管许多不利因素仍然存在，该公司面临物流费用增加、利润率下降、大量现金流出等问题。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>迈克尔·洛奇萨诺/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Peloton's(NASDAQ:PTON)fiscal 2022 is shaping up to be a crucial year, with the stock deep in battleground territory. The company surprised with a wider than expected loss last quarter while simultaneously dropping its FQ1 guidance by 20% to $800 million and marking full-year revenues at $5.4 billion, reflecting what the connected fitness manufacturer is expecting to be a strong end to the year, offsetting revenue weakness early on from lowered Bike pricing. The company has faced its share of challenges of the course of the past year, but is still looking ahead towards more growth in revenues and subscribers, although increased losses and other headwinds are on watch.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton（纳斯达克股票代码：PTON）的2022财年将是关键的一年，该股深陷战场。该公司上季度亏损超出预期，令人惊讶，同时将第一季度指引下调20%至8亿美元，全年收入为54亿美元，反映出这家互联健身制造商预计今年年底将表现强劲，抵消了自行车定价降低导致的早期收入疲软。该公司在过去一年中面临着挑战，但仍期待收入和用户的进一步增长，尽管亏损增加和其他不利因素正在受到关注。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Moving Along With Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>随着增长而前进</b></blockquote></p><p> One of Peloton's biggest challenges through the pandemic has been meeting demand, with the company seeing significant backlogs and delays - this had served as a headwind to growth, with supply chain inefficiencies limiting shipments and order-to-delivery times and ultimately revenues. The company noted that it has restored order-to-delivery times to pre-pandemic levels, with large investments in its supply chain paying off on that front. Peloton is moving forward with plans for its first US factory, with the investment allowing the company to \"diversify [its] manufacturing footprint, provide additional capacity to support [its] growth, drive production efficiencies through automation and scale, and accelerate [its] speed-to-market.\" Production is expected to begin in 2023.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton在疫情期间面临的最大挑战之一是满足需求，该公司面临大量积压和延误——这成为增长的阻力，供应链效率低下限制了发货和订单到交付时间，并最终限制了收入。该公司指出，它已经将订单到交付的时间恢复到了大流行前的水平，对其供应链的大量投资在这方面得到了回报。Peloton正在推进其第一家美国工厂的计划，这项投资使该公司能够“使[其]制造足迹多样化，提供额外的产能来支持[其]增长，通过自动化和规模化提高生产效率，并加速[其]上市速度。”预计将于2023年开始生产。</blockquote></p><p> Boosting manufacturing capacity can help drive hardware unit sales, demand contingent, which in turn can boost subscriber numbers, where Peloton is seeing strong growth. Connected fitness subscribers rose 114% y/y, with guidance pointing to ~86% y/y growth for FQ1, and digital subscribers rose 176% y/y to 874K, with rising free-trial volumes and improving conversion rates. What's key for Peloton is keeping high growth rates in subscribers and high engagement, two important metrics for sustainability of a subscription-plus-hardware model.</p><p><blockquote>提高制造能力有助于推动硬件单位销售和需求，从而增加用户数量，Peloton在这方面取得了强劲增长。互联健身用户同比增长114%，指引显示第一季度同比增长约86%，数字用户同比增长176%至874K，免费试用量不断增加，转化率不断提高。Peloton的关键是保持用户的高增长率和高参与度，这是订阅加硬件模式可持续性的两个重要指标。</blockquote></p><p> Peloton recently made an interesting move that could boost members and help engagement trends. The company announced a tie up with UnitedHealth (UNH), offering members a free Peloton digital subscription ($155 value), and for members who already have a Peloton and/or digital subscription, that value can be applied as a credit.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton最近采取了一项有趣的举措，可以增加会员并有助于参与趋势。该公司宣布与UnitedHealth(UNH)合作，为会员提供免费的Peloton数字订阅（价值155美元），对于已经拥有Peloton和/或数字订阅的会员，该价值可以用作积分。</blockquote></p><p> It's enhancing the value proposition for both companies - insurance members get an added perk that they do or do not have to use, while Peloton gets exposure to millions of new potential customers that it could possibly upsell to. While these customers aren't paying directly for the service, rather receiving it through an insurance plan, it provides a massive base to which Peloton could acquire customers at little to no cost.</p><p><blockquote>它增强了两家公司的价值主张——保险会员可以获得他们必须或不必使用的额外福利，而Peloton则可以接触到数百万新的潜在客户，并可能向其追加销售。虽然这些客户不直接为服务付费，而是通过保险计划获得服务，但它提供了一个庞大的基础，Peloton可以以很少甚至没有成本的方式获得客户。</blockquote></p><p> The benefits to Peloton could be quite large if it leads to ~1% of UNH's ~50 million covered members becoming interested in the company's products, or ~0.05% actually buying a Peloton product - that could be around $50 million in revenues at the 0.05% figure. While it's purely an estimate, the lack of expenses to tap into such a large customer base and activate new digital subscribers provides a large opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>如果UNH约5000万覆盖会员中约1%对该公司的产品感兴趣，或者约0.05%实际购买Peloton产品，那么Peloton的好处可能会相当大——按0.05%计算，收入可能约为5000万美元。虽然这纯粹是一个估计，但缺乏利用如此庞大的客户群和激活新的数字用户的费用提供了一个巨大的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/607c2c7fa4c793a6846a949c536c4211\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic from Peloton</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来自Peloton</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some of Peloton's key metrics shown above reflect the trends in engagement and growth - revenues dipped q/q for the first time, alongside a dip in workouts, while subscriber number and revenue growth continued. Peloton pointed the finger at seasonal trends, improving weather and consumer mobility - the bigger question raised here is that demand is simply weakening that home fitness is a fad - the biggest questions surrounding the bear case.</p><p><blockquote>上面显示的Peloton的一些关键指标反映了参与度和增长的趋势——收入首次环比下降，锻炼次数也有所下降，而订户数量和收入继续增长。Peloton将矛头指向季节性趋势、天气改善和消费者流动性——这里提出的更大问题是，需求只是在减弱，家庭健身是一种时尚——这是围绕熊市的最大问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While quarterly and average workouts dipped, engagement trends are still solid, with workout diversification improving. Cycling workouts remain the majority, just under 60%, but new categories are growing quickly, with Peloton noting that \"Connected Fitness Strength workouts grew 256% year-on-year and now represent 18% of the total mix, up from 13% in fiscal 2020.\" Gains in strength, floor and yoga reinforce the proposition that Peloton provides unique value to its users and keeps them engaged across multiple different workout disciplines.</p><p><blockquote>虽然季度和平均锻炼次数有所下降，但参与度趋势仍然稳定，锻炼多样化有所改善。自行车锻炼仍然是大多数，略低于60%，但新类别正在快速增长，Peloton指出，“互联健身力量锻炼同比增长256%，目前占总组合的18%，高于2020财年的13%。”力量、自由体操和瑜伽的进步强化了Peloton为用户提供独特价值并让他们参与多个不同锻炼项目的主张。</blockquote></p><p> While Peloton has been labeled as another fitness fad, it's showing improving workout mix across all disciplines, pointing to strength in engagement aided by over 90% 12-month retention. The first two quarters of the current fiscal year will provide more clarity and insight into workouts and average workout statistics, and to how engagement is evolving.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Peloton被贴上了另一种健身时尚的标签，但它显示出所有学科的锻炼组合都在改善，表明超过90%的12个月保留率有助于参与度。本财年的前两个季度将更清晰、更深入地了解锻炼和平均锻炼统计数据，以及参与度的发展情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4956d56e03034c6018f94d8837f7ba48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"254\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic from Peloton</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来自Peloton</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Other catalysts include Precor's acquisition aiding growth outlets in commercial streams, such as hotels, additional hardware/machines, and international expansion. Commercial outlets could unlock bulk orders of Peloton's machines, while unveiling new hardware products like a rower can spur demand with existing customers and other interested customers. International expansion could be one of the largest long-term drivers, with the geographic segment barely contributing 11% of revenues, with penetration much lower than the domestic market. The UK and rest of Europe provide compelling growth outlets over the next few years for both hardware and subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>其他催化剂包括Precor的收购有助于商业渠道的增长，例如酒店、额外的硬件/机器和国际扩张。商业网点可以解锁Peloton机器的批量订单，而推出赛艇等新硬件产品可以刺激现有客户和其他感兴趣的客户的需求。国际扩张可能是最大的长期驱动力之一，地理细分市场仅贡献了11%的收入，渗透率远低于国内市场。英国和欧洲其他国家在未来几年为硬件和用户提供了引人注目的增长渠道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Running Towards Trouble</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奔向麻烦</b></blockquote></p><p> Although Peloton is making strides with growth and pushing forward with subscription revenues (to 30% in Q4 while FY totaled 21.7%, up from 19.9% the prior year), the company is facing some margin pressures and a weakening balance sheet as it works to boost growth.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Peloton在增长和订阅收入方面取得了长足的进步（第四季度达到30%，而财年总收入为21.7%，高于上一年的19.9%），但该公司在努力促进增长时面临着一些利润压力和资产负债表疲软。</blockquote></p><p> The prior quarter saw the Connected Fitness segment suffer a sharp gross margin decline, by 33.7 percentage points to 11.6% - Peloton attributed this to Tread recalls, increased logistics expenses, and lower pricing mix. Peloton recently released the all new Tread, and announced a $400 price cut on the Bike to \"maximize the number of Peloton Bikes, Treads, and future products in households.\" However, this move is likely another hard headwind for margins to deal with, given that pricing has already proven to be detrimental to margins.</p><p><blockquote>上一季度，互联健身领域的毛利率大幅下降33.7个百分点至11.6%——Peloton将此归因于胎面召回、物流费用增加和定价组合降低。Peloton最近发布了全新胎面，并宣布自行车降价400美元，以“最大限度地增加家庭中Peloton自行车、胎面和未来产品的数量”。然而，鉴于定价已经被证明对利润率不利，这一举措可能是利润率需要应对的另一个困难阻力。</blockquote></p><p> Logistics expenses again are likely to cut into margins, as global shipping rates have only just started to fall after spiking and remaining quite high during Peloton's fiscal quarter. Container shortages and port congestion have hurt numerous retailers, and Peloton's manufacturing concentration in Taiwan exposes it to those heightened shipping costs.Rates soaring to far over $10,000 for cross-Pacific routes are likely to have a big impact on Peloton's revenues as ~90% stem from North America.</p><p><blockquote>物流费用可能会再次削减利润率，因为全球运费在Peloton财年飙升并保持相当高的水平后才刚刚开始下降。集装箱短缺和港口拥堵损害了众多零售商，而Peloton的制造集中在台湾，使其面临运输成本上升的风险。跨太平洋航线的运价飙升至远超过10,000美元，可能会对Peloton的收入产生重大影响，因为约90%来自北美。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, Peloton is seeing large cash outflows, about $600 million in Q4. The company is stepping up investments to build out capacity, but at a time when revenues are facing a bit of a crunch sequentially and as margins are taking a large hit. FQ1 is projected to post approximately $285 million negative EBITDA, and likely another substantial cash outflow. Adjusted EBITDA profitability is expected to come by FY23, with the gap narrowing with a strong 2H '22 driven by Bike demand.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Peloton还出现大量现金流出，第四季度约为6亿美元。该公司正在加大投资以扩大产能，但此时收入连续面临一些紧缩，利润率也受到了很大打击。第一季度预计将出现约2.85亿美元的负EBITDA，并且可能再次出现大量现金流出。调整后的EBITDA盈利能力预计将来自2023财年，随着自行车需求的强劲推动，22年下半年的差距将缩小。</blockquote></p><p> Other issues arise within Peloton's guidance - while it's guiding some strong take rates for the Bike and new Tread, is that guidance achievable? For FQ1, guidance sits at $800 million, while for the full year, guidance sits at $5.4 billion; this is projecting q/q growth rates nearly on par with the heart of the pandemic, over 30%, for three straight quarters. The main question here - will volumes be able to offset price cuts, and will subscription and apparel revenue be enough to meet guidance? Peloton has a lot to prove through Q1 and the end of the year, leaving itself a tough mountain to climb to reach these lofty goals.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton的指导中还出现了其他问题——虽然它指导了自行车和新胎面的一些强劲采用率，但这种指导可以实现吗？第一季度的指导为8亿美元，而全年的指导为54亿美元；预计环比增长率几乎与疫情中心持平，连续三个季度超过30%。这里的主要问题是——销量能否抵消降价，订阅和服装收入是否足以满足指导？通过第一季度和今年年底，Peloton需要证明很多东西，为自己留下了一座艰难的山来实现这些崇高的目标。</blockquote></p><p> Peloton has come under fire from requiring users to have a paying All-Access membership to use the Bike or Tread, as users simply are not able to run or bike without paying that $39/mo fee. Equipment pricing is already at the higher end of the industry average, and while pricing is decreasing, the extra monthly subscription adds up quickly.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton因要求用户拥有付费的All-Access会员才能使用自行车或Tread而受到抨击，因为用户如果不支付每月39美元的费用，就无法跑步或骑自行车。设备定价已经处于行业平均水平的高端，虽然定价正在下降，但额外的每月订阅量正在迅速增加。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The commercial growth story does raise additional questions. Peloton has built its model by creating a unique user experience, and to translate an individual user experience to a commercial setting could be difficult. The payoff to a commercial enterprise, for example a hotel, could be limited due to usage - how often are those gyms frequented, how long are workouts, what type of travelers frequent the gym, etc - is it worth the cost to pick Peloton over a cheaper alternative, and what exactly would those enterprises gain? Peloton has been decreasing prices to make products more available for everyone, but it does not provide a drastically compelling value proposition to back up that price point for commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>商业增长的故事确实提出了更多的问题。Peloton通过创造独特的用户体验来建立其模型，将个人用户体验转化为商业环境可能很困难。商业企业（例如酒店）的回报可能会因使用情况而受到限制——这些健身房经常光顾的频率、锻炼的时间、什么类型的旅行者经常光顾健身房等——是否值得选择Peloton而不是更便宜的替代品，这些企业到底会获得什么？Peloton一直在降低价格，以使每个人都能更容易地获得产品，但它并没有提供非常令人信服的价值主张来支持商业用途的价格点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Battleground</b></p><p><blockquote><b>战场</b></blockquote></p><p> Peloton offers numerous reasons for both bulls and bears to set up camp, with the stock quickly becoming a battleground as growth and struggles come to a head. Large cash outflows, questionably strong guidance and execution risk, logistics expenses, margin pressures, sequentially weak revenues, ability to continue rapidly growing subscribers, holes in the commercial growth outlook, and competitive forces (such as that from Nautilus (NLS), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Fitbit(NASDAQ:GOOG)(GOOGL) and more) offer multiple compelling reasons to see extra downside to a valuation just under 5x FY22's projected sales.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton为多头和空头提供了众多扎营的理由，随着增长和挣扎达到紧要关头，该股很快成为战场。大量现金流出、可疑的强劲指导和执行风险、物流费用、利润压力、收入连续疲软、用户继续快速增长的能力、商业增长前景的漏洞以及竞争力量（例如Nautilus(NLS)、苹果(AAPL)、Amazon(AMZN)、Fitbit（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）（GOOGL）等）提供了多种令人信服的理由，让我们看到估值略低于2022财年预计销售额5倍的额外下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, Peloton could still be in the early innings of gaining ground in connected fitness - the company can push out more products, more workout disciplines, a health and wellness segment, or find growth in commercial areas, tremendous opportunities internationally, and strong recurring high-margin subscription revenues. If Peloton can reach annual guidance, it's setting itself up for high rates of successive growth, which can help prove that the pandemic was not a one-time surge, and the model is here to stay.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，Peloton可能仍处于互联健身领域取得进展的早期阶段——该公司可以推出更多产品、更多锻炼项目、健康和保健领域，或者在商业领域找到增长、国际上的巨大机会，以及强劲的经常性高利润订阅收入。如果Peloton能够达到年度指导，它将为自己的高连续增长率做好准备，这有助于证明疫情不是一次性激增，并且该模式将继续存在。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, the company is at the beginning of a very important year, with high targets that would lessen fears of dissipating growth, and multiple headwinds that could in fact limit such growth. Neither bull nor bear case substantially outweigh the other, and as such, shares are rated at neutral.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，该公司正处于非常重要的一年的开始，其高目标将减轻对增长消失的担忧，而多重不利因素实际上可能会限制这种增长。牛市和熊市的情况都没有明显超过对方，因此，股票评级为中性。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Peloton: A Battleground Stock Nearing A Crucial Moment<blockquote>Peloton：接近关键时刻的战场股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPeloton: A Battleground Stock Nearing A Crucial Moment<blockquote>Peloton：接近关键时刻的战场股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-18 11:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>PTON surprised with poor guidance for FQ1 while keeping full year guidance high, reflecting what would be a string of very high growth quarters.</li> <li>Multiple outlets for growth exist - a unique deal with UNH could boost interest levels, and international and commercial could offer compelling growth.</li> <li>Just as many headwinds remain, with the company facing increased logistics expenses, weakened margins, large cash outflows, and more.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff90f9d488e3dc0a05a65ac162a9726\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael Loccisano/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PTON对第一季度的糟糕指导感到惊讶，同时将全年指导保持在较高水平，这反映了一系列非常高增长的季度。</li><li>存在多种增长渠道——与UNH的独特交易可以提高兴趣水平，国际和商业可以提供引人注目的增长。</li><li>尽管许多不利因素仍然存在，该公司面临物流费用增加、利润率下降、大量现金流出等问题。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>迈克尔·洛奇萨诺/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Peloton's(NASDAQ:PTON)fiscal 2022 is shaping up to be a crucial year, with the stock deep in battleground territory. The company surprised with a wider than expected loss last quarter while simultaneously dropping its FQ1 guidance by 20% to $800 million and marking full-year revenues at $5.4 billion, reflecting what the connected fitness manufacturer is expecting to be a strong end to the year, offsetting revenue weakness early on from lowered Bike pricing. The company has faced its share of challenges of the course of the past year, but is still looking ahead towards more growth in revenues and subscribers, although increased losses and other headwinds are on watch.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton（纳斯达克股票代码：PTON）的2022财年将是关键的一年，该股深陷战场。该公司上季度亏损超出预期，令人惊讶，同时将第一季度指引下调20%至8亿美元，全年收入为54亿美元，反映出这家互联健身制造商预计今年年底将表现强劲，抵消了自行车定价降低导致的早期收入疲软。该公司在过去一年中面临着挑战，但仍期待收入和用户的进一步增长，尽管亏损增加和其他不利因素正在受到关注。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Moving Along With Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>随着增长而前进</b></blockquote></p><p> One of Peloton's biggest challenges through the pandemic has been meeting demand, with the company seeing significant backlogs and delays - this had served as a headwind to growth, with supply chain inefficiencies limiting shipments and order-to-delivery times and ultimately revenues. The company noted that it has restored order-to-delivery times to pre-pandemic levels, with large investments in its supply chain paying off on that front. Peloton is moving forward with plans for its first US factory, with the investment allowing the company to \"diversify [its] manufacturing footprint, provide additional capacity to support [its] growth, drive production efficiencies through automation and scale, and accelerate [its] speed-to-market.\" Production is expected to begin in 2023.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton在疫情期间面临的最大挑战之一是满足需求，该公司面临大量积压和延误——这成为增长的阻力，供应链效率低下限制了发货和订单到交付时间，并最终限制了收入。该公司指出，它已经将订单到交付的时间恢复到了大流行前的水平，对其供应链的大量投资在这方面得到了回报。Peloton正在推进其第一家美国工厂的计划，这项投资使该公司能够“使[其]制造足迹多样化，提供额外的产能来支持[其]增长，通过自动化和规模化提高生产效率，并加速[其]上市速度。”预计将于2023年开始生产。</blockquote></p><p> Boosting manufacturing capacity can help drive hardware unit sales, demand contingent, which in turn can boost subscriber numbers, where Peloton is seeing strong growth. Connected fitness subscribers rose 114% y/y, with guidance pointing to ~86% y/y growth for FQ1, and digital subscribers rose 176% y/y to 874K, with rising free-trial volumes and improving conversion rates. What's key for Peloton is keeping high growth rates in subscribers and high engagement, two important metrics for sustainability of a subscription-plus-hardware model.</p><p><blockquote>提高制造能力有助于推动硬件单位销售和需求，从而增加用户数量，Peloton在这方面取得了强劲增长。互联健身用户同比增长114%，指引显示第一季度同比增长约86%，数字用户同比增长176%至874K，免费试用量不断增加，转化率不断提高。Peloton的关键是保持用户的高增长率和高参与度，这是订阅加硬件模式可持续性的两个重要指标。</blockquote></p><p> Peloton recently made an interesting move that could boost members and help engagement trends. The company announced a tie up with UnitedHealth (UNH), offering members a free Peloton digital subscription ($155 value), and for members who already have a Peloton and/or digital subscription, that value can be applied as a credit.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton最近采取了一项有趣的举措，可以增加会员并有助于参与趋势。该公司宣布与UnitedHealth(UNH)合作，为会员提供免费的Peloton数字订阅（价值155美元），对于已经拥有Peloton和/或数字订阅的会员，该价值可以用作积分。</blockquote></p><p> It's enhancing the value proposition for both companies - insurance members get an added perk that they do or do not have to use, while Peloton gets exposure to millions of new potential customers that it could possibly upsell to. While these customers aren't paying directly for the service, rather receiving it through an insurance plan, it provides a massive base to which Peloton could acquire customers at little to no cost.</p><p><blockquote>它增强了两家公司的价值主张——保险会员可以获得他们必须或不必使用的额外福利，而Peloton则可以接触到数百万新的潜在客户，并可能向其追加销售。虽然这些客户不直接为服务付费，而是通过保险计划获得服务，但它提供了一个庞大的基础，Peloton可以以很少甚至没有成本的方式获得客户。</blockquote></p><p> The benefits to Peloton could be quite large if it leads to ~1% of UNH's ~50 million covered members becoming interested in the company's products, or ~0.05% actually buying a Peloton product - that could be around $50 million in revenues at the 0.05% figure. While it's purely an estimate, the lack of expenses to tap into such a large customer base and activate new digital subscribers provides a large opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>如果UNH约5000万覆盖会员中约1%对该公司的产品感兴趣，或者约0.05%实际购买Peloton产品，那么Peloton的好处可能会相当大——按0.05%计算，收入可能约为5000万美元。虽然这纯粹是一个估计，但缺乏利用如此庞大的客户群和激活新的数字用户的费用提供了一个巨大的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/607c2c7fa4c793a6846a949c536c4211\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic from Peloton</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来自Peloton</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some of Peloton's key metrics shown above reflect the trends in engagement and growth - revenues dipped q/q for the first time, alongside a dip in workouts, while subscriber number and revenue growth continued. Peloton pointed the finger at seasonal trends, improving weather and consumer mobility - the bigger question raised here is that demand is simply weakening that home fitness is a fad - the biggest questions surrounding the bear case.</p><p><blockquote>上面显示的Peloton的一些关键指标反映了参与度和增长的趋势——收入首次环比下降，锻炼次数也有所下降，而订户数量和收入继续增长。Peloton将矛头指向季节性趋势、天气改善和消费者流动性——这里提出的更大问题是，需求只是在减弱，家庭健身是一种时尚——这是围绕熊市的最大问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While quarterly and average workouts dipped, engagement trends are still solid, with workout diversification improving. Cycling workouts remain the majority, just under 60%, but new categories are growing quickly, with Peloton noting that \"Connected Fitness Strength workouts grew 256% year-on-year and now represent 18% of the total mix, up from 13% in fiscal 2020.\" Gains in strength, floor and yoga reinforce the proposition that Peloton provides unique value to its users and keeps them engaged across multiple different workout disciplines.</p><p><blockquote>虽然季度和平均锻炼次数有所下降，但参与度趋势仍然稳定，锻炼多样化有所改善。自行车锻炼仍然是大多数，略低于60%，但新类别正在快速增长，Peloton指出，“互联健身力量锻炼同比增长256%，目前占总组合的18%，高于2020财年的13%。”力量、自由体操和瑜伽的进步强化了Peloton为用户提供独特价值并让他们参与多个不同锻炼项目的主张。</blockquote></p><p> While Peloton has been labeled as another fitness fad, it's showing improving workout mix across all disciplines, pointing to strength in engagement aided by over 90% 12-month retention. The first two quarters of the current fiscal year will provide more clarity and insight into workouts and average workout statistics, and to how engagement is evolving.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Peloton被贴上了另一种健身时尚的标签，但它显示出所有学科的锻炼组合都在改善，表明超过90%的12个月保留率有助于参与度。本财年的前两个季度将更清晰、更深入地了解锻炼和平均锻炼统计数据，以及参与度的发展情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4956d56e03034c6018f94d8837f7ba48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"254\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Graphic from Peloton</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来自Peloton</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Other catalysts include Precor's acquisition aiding growth outlets in commercial streams, such as hotels, additional hardware/machines, and international expansion. Commercial outlets could unlock bulk orders of Peloton's machines, while unveiling new hardware products like a rower can spur demand with existing customers and other interested customers. International expansion could be one of the largest long-term drivers, with the geographic segment barely contributing 11% of revenues, with penetration much lower than the domestic market. The UK and rest of Europe provide compelling growth outlets over the next few years for both hardware and subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>其他催化剂包括Precor的收购有助于商业渠道的增长，例如酒店、额外的硬件/机器和国际扩张。商业网点可以解锁Peloton机器的批量订单，而推出赛艇等新硬件产品可以刺激现有客户和其他感兴趣的客户的需求。国际扩张可能是最大的长期驱动力之一，地理细分市场仅贡献了11%的收入，渗透率远低于国内市场。英国和欧洲其他国家在未来几年为硬件和用户提供了引人注目的增长渠道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Running Towards Trouble</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奔向麻烦</b></blockquote></p><p> Although Peloton is making strides with growth and pushing forward with subscription revenues (to 30% in Q4 while FY totaled 21.7%, up from 19.9% the prior year), the company is facing some margin pressures and a weakening balance sheet as it works to boost growth.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Peloton在增长和订阅收入方面取得了长足的进步（第四季度达到30%，而财年总收入为21.7%，高于上一年的19.9%），但该公司在努力促进增长时面临着一些利润压力和资产负债表疲软。</blockquote></p><p> The prior quarter saw the Connected Fitness segment suffer a sharp gross margin decline, by 33.7 percentage points to 11.6% - Peloton attributed this to Tread recalls, increased logistics expenses, and lower pricing mix. Peloton recently released the all new Tread, and announced a $400 price cut on the Bike to \"maximize the number of Peloton Bikes, Treads, and future products in households.\" However, this move is likely another hard headwind for margins to deal with, given that pricing has already proven to be detrimental to margins.</p><p><blockquote>上一季度，互联健身领域的毛利率大幅下降33.7个百分点至11.6%——Peloton将此归因于胎面召回、物流费用增加和定价组合降低。Peloton最近发布了全新胎面，并宣布自行车降价400美元，以“最大限度地增加家庭中Peloton自行车、胎面和未来产品的数量”。然而，鉴于定价已经被证明对利润率不利，这一举措可能是利润率需要应对的另一个困难阻力。</blockquote></p><p> Logistics expenses again are likely to cut into margins, as global shipping rates have only just started to fall after spiking and remaining quite high during Peloton's fiscal quarter. Container shortages and port congestion have hurt numerous retailers, and Peloton's manufacturing concentration in Taiwan exposes it to those heightened shipping costs.Rates soaring to far over $10,000 for cross-Pacific routes are likely to have a big impact on Peloton's revenues as ~90% stem from North America.</p><p><blockquote>物流费用可能会再次削减利润率，因为全球运费在Peloton财年飙升并保持相当高的水平后才刚刚开始下降。集装箱短缺和港口拥堵损害了众多零售商，而Peloton的制造集中在台湾，使其面临运输成本上升的风险。跨太平洋航线的运价飙升至远超过10,000美元，可能会对Peloton的收入产生重大影响，因为约90%来自北美。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, Peloton is seeing large cash outflows, about $600 million in Q4. The company is stepping up investments to build out capacity, but at a time when revenues are facing a bit of a crunch sequentially and as margins are taking a large hit. FQ1 is projected to post approximately $285 million negative EBITDA, and likely another substantial cash outflow. Adjusted EBITDA profitability is expected to come by FY23, with the gap narrowing with a strong 2H '22 driven by Bike demand.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Peloton还出现大量现金流出，第四季度约为6亿美元。该公司正在加大投资以扩大产能，但此时收入连续面临一些紧缩，利润率也受到了很大打击。第一季度预计将出现约2.85亿美元的负EBITDA，并且可能再次出现大量现金流出。调整后的EBITDA盈利能力预计将来自2023财年，随着自行车需求的强劲推动，22年下半年的差距将缩小。</blockquote></p><p> Other issues arise within Peloton's guidance - while it's guiding some strong take rates for the Bike and new Tread, is that guidance achievable? For FQ1, guidance sits at $800 million, while for the full year, guidance sits at $5.4 billion; this is projecting q/q growth rates nearly on par with the heart of the pandemic, over 30%, for three straight quarters. The main question here - will volumes be able to offset price cuts, and will subscription and apparel revenue be enough to meet guidance? Peloton has a lot to prove through Q1 and the end of the year, leaving itself a tough mountain to climb to reach these lofty goals.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton的指导中还出现了其他问题——虽然它指导了自行车和新胎面的一些强劲采用率，但这种指导可以实现吗？第一季度的指导为8亿美元，而全年的指导为54亿美元；预计环比增长率几乎与疫情中心持平，连续三个季度超过30%。这里的主要问题是——销量能否抵消降价，订阅和服装收入是否足以满足指导？通过第一季度和今年年底，Peloton需要证明很多东西，为自己留下了一座艰难的山来实现这些崇高的目标。</blockquote></p><p> Peloton has come under fire from requiring users to have a paying All-Access membership to use the Bike or Tread, as users simply are not able to run or bike without paying that $39/mo fee. Equipment pricing is already at the higher end of the industry average, and while pricing is decreasing, the extra monthly subscription adds up quickly.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton因要求用户拥有付费的All-Access会员才能使用自行车或Tread而受到抨击，因为用户如果不支付每月39美元的费用，就无法跑步或骑自行车。设备定价已经处于行业平均水平的高端，虽然定价正在下降，但额外的每月订阅量正在迅速增加。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The commercial growth story does raise additional questions. Peloton has built its model by creating a unique user experience, and to translate an individual user experience to a commercial setting could be difficult. The payoff to a commercial enterprise, for example a hotel, could be limited due to usage - how often are those gyms frequented, how long are workouts, what type of travelers frequent the gym, etc - is it worth the cost to pick Peloton over a cheaper alternative, and what exactly would those enterprises gain? Peloton has been decreasing prices to make products more available for everyone, but it does not provide a drastically compelling value proposition to back up that price point for commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>商业增长的故事确实提出了更多的问题。Peloton通过创造独特的用户体验来建立其模型，将个人用户体验转化为商业环境可能很困难。商业企业（例如酒店）的回报可能会因使用情况而受到限制——这些健身房经常光顾的频率、锻炼的时间、什么类型的旅行者经常光顾健身房等——是否值得选择Peloton而不是更便宜的替代品，这些企业到底会获得什么？Peloton一直在降低价格，以使每个人都能更容易地获得产品，但它并没有提供非常令人信服的价值主张来支持商业用途的价格点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Battleground</b></p><p><blockquote><b>战场</b></blockquote></p><p> Peloton offers numerous reasons for both bulls and bears to set up camp, with the stock quickly becoming a battleground as growth and struggles come to a head. Large cash outflows, questionably strong guidance and execution risk, logistics expenses, margin pressures, sequentially weak revenues, ability to continue rapidly growing subscribers, holes in the commercial growth outlook, and competitive forces (such as that from Nautilus (NLS), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Fitbit(NASDAQ:GOOG)(GOOGL) and more) offer multiple compelling reasons to see extra downside to a valuation just under 5x FY22's projected sales.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton为多头和空头提供了众多扎营的理由，随着增长和挣扎达到紧要关头，该股很快成为战场。大量现金流出、可疑的强劲指导和执行风险、物流费用、利润压力、收入连续疲软、用户继续快速增长的能力、商业增长前景的漏洞以及竞争力量（例如Nautilus(NLS)、苹果(AAPL)、Amazon(AMZN)、Fitbit（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）（GOOGL）等）提供了多种令人信服的理由，让我们看到估值略低于2022财年预计销售额5倍的额外下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, Peloton could still be in the early innings of gaining ground in connected fitness - the company can push out more products, more workout disciplines, a health and wellness segment, or find growth in commercial areas, tremendous opportunities internationally, and strong recurring high-margin subscription revenues. If Peloton can reach annual guidance, it's setting itself up for high rates of successive growth, which can help prove that the pandemic was not a one-time surge, and the model is here to stay.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，Peloton可能仍处于互联健身领域取得进展的早期阶段——该公司可以推出更多产品、更多锻炼项目、健康和保健领域，或者在商业领域找到增长、国际上的巨大机会，以及强劲的经常性高利润订阅收入。如果Peloton能够达到年度指导，它将为自己的高连续增长率做好准备，这有助于证明疫情不是一次性激增，并且该模式将继续存在。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, the company is at the beginning of a very important year, with high targets that would lessen fears of dissipating growth, and multiple headwinds that could in fact limit such growth. Neither bull nor bear case substantially outweigh the other, and as such, shares are rated at neutral.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，该公司正处于非常重要的一年的开始，其高目标将减轻对增长消失的担忧，而多重不利因素实际上可能会限制这种增长。牛市和熊市的情况都没有明显超过对方，因此，股票评级为中性。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460195-peloton-pton-battleground-stock-crucial-moment\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460195-peloton-pton-battleground-stock-crucial-moment","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100450732","content_text":"Summary\n\nPTON surprised with poor guidance for FQ1 while keeping full year guidance high, reflecting what would be a string of very high growth quarters.\nMultiple outlets for growth exist - a unique deal with UNH could boost interest levels, and international and commercial could offer compelling growth.\nJust as many headwinds remain, with the company facing increased logistics expenses, weakened margins, large cash outflows, and more.\n\nMichael Loccisano/Getty Images News\nPeloton's(NASDAQ:PTON)fiscal 2022 is shaping up to be a crucial year, with the stock deep in battleground territory. The company surprised with a wider than expected loss last quarter while simultaneously dropping its FQ1 guidance by 20% to $800 million and marking full-year revenues at $5.4 billion, reflecting what the connected fitness manufacturer is expecting to be a strong end to the year, offsetting revenue weakness early on from lowered Bike pricing. The company has faced its share of challenges of the course of the past year, but is still looking ahead towards more growth in revenues and subscribers, although increased losses and other headwinds are on watch.\nMoving Along With Growth\nOne of Peloton's biggest challenges through the pandemic has been meeting demand, with the company seeing significant backlogs and delays - this had served as a headwind to growth, with supply chain inefficiencies limiting shipments and order-to-delivery times and ultimately revenues. The company noted that it has restored order-to-delivery times to pre-pandemic levels, with large investments in its supply chain paying off on that front. Peloton is moving forward with plans for its first US factory, with the investment allowing the company to \"diversify [its] manufacturing footprint, provide additional capacity to support [its] growth, drive production efficiencies through automation and scale, and accelerate [its] speed-to-market.\" Production is expected to begin in 2023.\nBoosting manufacturing capacity can help drive hardware unit sales, demand contingent, which in turn can boost subscriber numbers, where Peloton is seeing strong growth. Connected fitness subscribers rose 114% y/y, with guidance pointing to ~86% y/y growth for FQ1, and digital subscribers rose 176% y/y to 874K, with rising free-trial volumes and improving conversion rates. What's key for Peloton is keeping high growth rates in subscribers and high engagement, two important metrics for sustainability of a subscription-plus-hardware model.\nPeloton recently made an interesting move that could boost members and help engagement trends. The company announced a tie up with UnitedHealth (UNH), offering members a free Peloton digital subscription ($155 value), and for members who already have a Peloton and/or digital subscription, that value can be applied as a credit.\nIt's enhancing the value proposition for both companies - insurance members get an added perk that they do or do not have to use, while Peloton gets exposure to millions of new potential customers that it could possibly upsell to. While these customers aren't paying directly for the service, rather receiving it through an insurance plan, it provides a massive base to which Peloton could acquire customers at little to no cost.\nThe benefits to Peloton could be quite large if it leads to ~1% of UNH's ~50 million covered members becoming interested in the company's products, or ~0.05% actually buying a Peloton product - that could be around $50 million in revenues at the 0.05% figure. While it's purely an estimate, the lack of expenses to tap into such a large customer base and activate new digital subscribers provides a large opportunity.\nGraphic from Peloton\nSome of Peloton's key metrics shown above reflect the trends in engagement and growth - revenues dipped q/q for the first time, alongside a dip in workouts, while subscriber number and revenue growth continued. Peloton pointed the finger at seasonal trends, improving weather and consumer mobility - the bigger question raised here is that demand is simply weakening that home fitness is a fad - the biggest questions surrounding the bear case.\nWhile quarterly and average workouts dipped, engagement trends are still solid, with workout diversification improving. Cycling workouts remain the majority, just under 60%, but new categories are growing quickly, with Peloton noting that \"Connected Fitness Strength workouts grew 256% year-on-year and now represent 18% of the total mix, up from 13% in fiscal 2020.\" Gains in strength, floor and yoga reinforce the proposition that Peloton provides unique value to its users and keeps them engaged across multiple different workout disciplines.\nWhile Peloton has been labeled as another fitness fad, it's showing improving workout mix across all disciplines, pointing to strength in engagement aided by over 90% 12-month retention. The first two quarters of the current fiscal year will provide more clarity and insight into workouts and average workout statistics, and to how engagement is evolving.\nGraphic from Peloton\nOther catalysts include Precor's acquisition aiding growth outlets in commercial streams, such as hotels, additional hardware/machines, and international expansion. Commercial outlets could unlock bulk orders of Peloton's machines, while unveiling new hardware products like a rower can spur demand with existing customers and other interested customers. International expansion could be one of the largest long-term drivers, with the geographic segment barely contributing 11% of revenues, with penetration much lower than the domestic market. The UK and rest of Europe provide compelling growth outlets over the next few years for both hardware and subscribers.\nRunning Towards Trouble\nAlthough Peloton is making strides with growth and pushing forward with subscription revenues (to 30% in Q4 while FY totaled 21.7%, up from 19.9% the prior year), the company is facing some margin pressures and a weakening balance sheet as it works to boost growth.\nThe prior quarter saw the Connected Fitness segment suffer a sharp gross margin decline, by 33.7 percentage points to 11.6% - Peloton attributed this to Tread recalls, increased logistics expenses, and lower pricing mix. Peloton recently released the all new Tread, and announced a $400 price cut on the Bike to \"maximize the number of Peloton Bikes, Treads, and future products in households.\" However, this move is likely another hard headwind for margins to deal with, given that pricing has already proven to be detrimental to margins.\nLogistics expenses again are likely to cut into margins, as global shipping rates have only just started to fall after spiking and remaining quite high during Peloton's fiscal quarter. Container shortages and port congestion have hurt numerous retailers, and Peloton's manufacturing concentration in Taiwan exposes it to those heightened shipping costs.Rates soaring to far over $10,000 for cross-Pacific routes are likely to have a big impact on Peloton's revenues as ~90% stem from North America.\nIn addition, Peloton is seeing large cash outflows, about $600 million in Q4. The company is stepping up investments to build out capacity, but at a time when revenues are facing a bit of a crunch sequentially and as margins are taking a large hit. FQ1 is projected to post approximately $285 million negative EBITDA, and likely another substantial cash outflow. Adjusted EBITDA profitability is expected to come by FY23, with the gap narrowing with a strong 2H '22 driven by Bike demand.\nOther issues arise within Peloton's guidance - while it's guiding some strong take rates for the Bike and new Tread, is that guidance achievable? For FQ1, guidance sits at $800 million, while for the full year, guidance sits at $5.4 billion; this is projecting q/q growth rates nearly on par with the heart of the pandemic, over 30%, for three straight quarters. The main question here - will volumes be able to offset price cuts, and will subscription and apparel revenue be enough to meet guidance? Peloton has a lot to prove through Q1 and the end of the year, leaving itself a tough mountain to climb to reach these lofty goals.\nPeloton has come under fire from requiring users to have a paying All-Access membership to use the Bike or Tread, as users simply are not able to run or bike without paying that $39/mo fee. Equipment pricing is already at the higher end of the industry average, and while pricing is decreasing, the extra monthly subscription adds up quickly.\nThe commercial growth story does raise additional questions. Peloton has built its model by creating a unique user experience, and to translate an individual user experience to a commercial setting could be difficult. The payoff to a commercial enterprise, for example a hotel, could be limited due to usage - how often are those gyms frequented, how long are workouts, what type of travelers frequent the gym, etc - is it worth the cost to pick Peloton over a cheaper alternative, and what exactly would those enterprises gain? Peloton has been decreasing prices to make products more available for everyone, but it does not provide a drastically compelling value proposition to back up that price point for commercial use.\nA Battleground\nPeloton offers numerous reasons for both bulls and bears to set up camp, with the stock quickly becoming a battleground as growth and struggles come to a head. Large cash outflows, questionably strong guidance and execution risk, logistics expenses, margin pressures, sequentially weak revenues, ability to continue rapidly growing subscribers, holes in the commercial growth outlook, and competitive forces (such as that from Nautilus (NLS), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Fitbit(NASDAQ:GOOG)(GOOGL) and more) offer multiple compelling reasons to see extra downside to a valuation just under 5x FY22's projected sales.\nOn the other hand, Peloton could still be in the early innings of gaining ground in connected fitness - the company can push out more products, more workout disciplines, a health and wellness segment, or find growth in commercial areas, tremendous opportunities internationally, and strong recurring high-margin subscription revenues. If Peloton can reach annual guidance, it's setting itself up for high rates of successive growth, which can help prove that the pandemic was not a one-time surge, and the model is here to stay.\nOverall, the company is at the beginning of a very important year, with high targets that would lessen fears of dissipating growth, and multiple headwinds that could in fact limit such growth. Neither bull nor bear case substantially outweigh the other, and as such, shares are rated at neutral.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PTON":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":709,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/827775636"}
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