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2021-10-13

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Another Earnings Season Is Here. What to Expect This Time.<blockquote>又一个财报季来了。这次会发生什么。</blockquote>

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What to Expect This Time.<blockquote>又一个财报季来了。这次会发生什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160581040","media":"Barrons","summary":"Earnings season kicks off this week—and it may take some unusually impressive results for stocks to ","content":"Earnings season kicks off this week—and it may take some unusually impressive results for stocks to rise after them.<blockquote>财报季将于本周拉开帷幕，随后股市可能需要一些异常令人印象深刻的业绩才能上涨。</blockquote> Reports from&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;companies have been trickling in—only 21 companies in the index had reported through Monday—but this week marks the beginning of what is known as earnings season. Investors will hear from&nbsp;Delta Air Lines&nbsp;(DAL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a>&nbsp;(WBA), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH), plus, banking heavyweights JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (JPM), Bank of America(BAC). It will provide a view of how businesses performed during the third quarter of 2021, and offer a glimpse into coming quarters as well.<blockquote>标普500公司的报告不断涌入——截至周一，该指数中只有 21 家公司发布了报告——但本周标志着财报季的开始。投资者将听取达美航空公司 (DAL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">沃尔格林博姿联盟</a>(WBA)、联合健康集团 (UNH)，以及银行业巨头摩根大通 (JPM)、美国银行 (BAC)。它将提供2021年第三季度企业表现的视图，并提供未来几个季度的一瞥。</blockquote> Analysts are forecasting aggregate earnings per share on the S&amp;P 500 to grow 24.5%, according to S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. Some of the most economically sensitive sectors are still expecting the largest rebound in EPS, as last year’s third quarter was still ravaged by partial lockdowns. S&amp;P 500 industrial and material companies are expected to see 73% and 90% year-over-year growth, respectively, with energy expected to go from losses to profits. Two of the slowest growing sectors will be the traditionally non-volatile and highly stable consumer staples and utility sectors, expected to see EPS grow 3% and fall 2.9%, respectively.<blockquote>根据 S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence 的数据，分析师预测标普500的每股总收益将增长 24.5%。由于去年第三季度仍受到部分封锁的影响，一些对经济最敏感的行业仍有望实现每股收益的最大反弹。标普500工业和材料公司预计将分别实现73%和90%的同比增长，能源公司预计将扭亏为盈。增长最慢的两个行业将是传统上不波动且高度稳定的必需消费品和公用事业行业，预计每股收益将分别增长 3% 和下降 2.9%。</blockquote> No matter the predicted growth, companies need to post big earnings beats in order for their shares to gain much. The S&amp;P 500 has already risen 17.9% this year, as companies benefited from the unprecedented reopening following Covid-19 shutdowns and trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus. As a result, valuations already reflect a large earnings stream, with the average S&amp;P 500 stock trading at around 20.5 times 12-month forward earnings estimates, above the long-term average in the mid-teens. For the market to live up to those valuations, the index needs to beat expectations by at least 10% in order to rally into year-end, writes Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek.<blockquote>无论预测的增长如何，公司都需要公布大幅盈利，才能让股价大幅上涨。今年标普500已经上涨了 17.9%，因为企业受益于 Covid-19 关闭和数万亿美元财政刺激后前所未有的重新开放。因此，估值已经反映了大量的收益流，标普500股票的平均交易价格约为 12 个月远期收益预期的 20.5 倍，高于 15 岁左右的长期平均水平。DataTrek 联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯 (Nicholas Colas) 写道，为了让市场达到这些估值，该指数需要超出预期至少 10%，才能在年底反弹。</blockquote> That won’t be easy. Nike (NKE) and FedEx (FDX), for example, posted mixed results as supply chain constraints and rising costs ate into sales and profit margins, causing the stocks to fall 6% and 9%, respectively, the trading day after their earnings reports. The size of earnings beats from early reporters has been shrinking as well. So far, early reporters have topped earnings forecasts by just 4%, well below the 23.2% and 15.5% during the second quarter in 2020 and 2021.<blockquote>这并不容易。例如，耐克 (NKE) 和联邦快递 (FDX) 公布的业绩好坏参半，因为供应链限制和成本上升侵蚀了销售额和利润率，导致股价在财报发布后的交易日分别下跌 6% 和 9%。早期记者的盈利规模也在缩小。到目前为止，早期记者仅比预期高出 4%，远低于 2020 年和 2021 年第二季度的 23.2% 和 15.5%。</blockquote> “We believe that economic headwinds will mitigate the benefits from pricing power and operating leverage, leading to less robust surprises in the third quarter,” writes Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse.<blockquote>“瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）首席美国股票策略师乔纳森-戈卢布（Jonathan Golub）写道：”我们认为，经济逆风将削弱定价权和运营杠杆带来的好处，导致第三季度的意外情况不那么强劲。</blockquote> Earnings estimates have begun to reflect those headwinds. Third-quarter forecasts have fallen about 0.8% since the beginning of September. That may not seem like much, but if companies say they expect more difficulty accessing supplies and that higher costs are persisting, analysts could revise 2022 estimates lower. “This sets up the first earnings season in the recovery where earnings risk clearly exists,” writes Tavis McCourt, institutional equity strategist at Raymond James.<blockquote>盈利预测已经开始反映这些不利因素。自9月初以来，第三季度预测已下降约0.8%。这看起来可能不多，但如果企业表示预计获取供应将更加困难，并且成本持续上涨，分析师可能会下调 2022 年的预期。“雷蒙德-詹姆斯公司（Raymond James）机构股票策略师塔维斯-麦考特（Tavis McCourt）写道：”这标志着经济复苏中第一个明显存在盈利风险的财报季。</blockquote> The good news? The S&amp;P 500 is down 3.8% from its Sept. 2 all-time high, so there’s a chance that some of the earnings risks are already reflected in the market.<blockquote>好消息？标普500比 9 月 2 日的历史高点下跌了 3.8%，因此部分盈利风险有可能已经反映在市场上。</blockquote> The question is whether it’s enough.<blockquote>问题是这是否足够。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Another Earnings Season Is Here. What to Expect This Time.<blockquote>又一个财报季来了。这次会发生什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnother Earnings Season Is Here. What to Expect This Time.<blockquote>又一个财报季来了。这次会发生什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-10-12 20:35\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nEarnings season kicks off this week—and it may take some unusually impressive results for stocks to rise after them.<blockquote>财报季将于本周拉开帷幕，随后股市可能需要一些异常令人印象深刻的业绩才能上涨。</blockquote> Reports from&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;companies have been trickling in—only 21 companies in the index had reported through Monday—but this week marks the beginning of what is known as earnings season. Investors will hear from&nbsp;Delta Air Lines&nbsp;(DAL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a>&nbsp;(WBA), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH), plus, banking heavyweights JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (JPM), Bank of America(BAC). It will provide a view of how businesses performed during the third quarter of 2021, and offer a glimpse into coming quarters as well.<blockquote>标普500公司的报告不断涌入——截至周一，该指数中只有 21 家公司发布了报告——但本周标志着财报季的开始。投资者将听取达美航空公司 (DAL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">沃尔格林博姿联盟</a>(WBA)、联合健康集团 (UNH)，以及银行业巨头摩根大通 (JPM)、美国银行 (BAC)。它将提供2021年第三季度企业表现的视图，并提供未来几个季度的一瞥。</blockquote> Analysts are forecasting aggregate earnings per share on the S&amp;P 500 to grow 24.5%, according to S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. Some of the most economically sensitive sectors are still expecting the largest rebound in EPS, as last year’s third quarter was still ravaged by partial lockdowns. S&amp;P 500 industrial and material companies are expected to see 73% and 90% year-over-year growth, respectively, with energy expected to go from losses to profits. Two of the slowest growing sectors will be the traditionally non-volatile and highly stable consumer staples and utility sectors, expected to see EPS grow 3% and fall 2.9%, respectively.<blockquote>根据 S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence 的数据，分析师预测标普500的每股总收益将增长 24.5%。由于去年第三季度仍受到部分封锁的影响，一些对经济最敏感的行业仍有望实现每股收益的最大反弹。标普500工业和材料公司预计将分别实现73%和90%的同比增长，能源公司预计将扭亏为盈。增长最慢的两个行业将是传统上不波动且高度稳定的必需消费品和公用事业行业，预计每股收益将分别增长 3% 和下降 2.9%。</blockquote> No matter the predicted growth, companies need to post big earnings beats in order for their shares to gain much. The S&amp;P 500 has already risen 17.9% this year, as companies benefited from the unprecedented reopening following Covid-19 shutdowns and trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus. As a result, valuations already reflect a large earnings stream, with the average S&amp;P 500 stock trading at around 20.5 times 12-month forward earnings estimates, above the long-term average in the mid-teens. For the market to live up to those valuations, the index needs to beat expectations by at least 10% in order to rally into year-end, writes Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek.<blockquote>无论预测的增长如何，公司都需要公布大幅盈利，才能让股价大幅上涨。今年标普500已经上涨了 17.9%，因为企业受益于 Covid-19 关闭和数万亿美元财政刺激后前所未有的重新开放。因此，估值已经反映了大量的收益流，标普500股票的平均交易价格约为 12 个月远期收益预期的 20.5 倍，高于 15 岁左右的长期平均水平。DataTrek 联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯 (Nicholas Colas) 写道，为了让市场达到这些估值，该指数需要超出预期至少 10%，才能在年底反弹。</blockquote> That won’t be easy. Nike (NKE) and FedEx (FDX), for example, posted mixed results as supply chain constraints and rising costs ate into sales and profit margins, causing the stocks to fall 6% and 9%, respectively, the trading day after their earnings reports. The size of earnings beats from early reporters has been shrinking as well. So far, early reporters have topped earnings forecasts by just 4%, well below the 23.2% and 15.5% during the second quarter in 2020 and 2021.<blockquote>这并不容易。例如，耐克 (NKE) 和联邦快递 (FDX) 公布的业绩好坏参半，因为供应链限制和成本上升侵蚀了销售额和利润率，导致股价在财报发布后的交易日分别下跌 6% 和 9%。早期记者的盈利规模也在缩小。到目前为止，早期记者仅比预期高出 4%，远低于 2020 年和 2021 年第二季度的 23.2% 和 15.5%。</blockquote> “We believe that economic headwinds will mitigate the benefits from pricing power and operating leverage, leading to less robust surprises in the third quarter,” writes Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse.<blockquote>“瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）首席美国股票策略师乔纳森-戈卢布（Jonathan Golub）写道：”我们认为，经济逆风将削弱定价权和运营杠杆带来的好处，导致第三季度的意外情况不那么强劲。</blockquote> Earnings estimates have begun to reflect those headwinds. Third-quarter forecasts have fallen about 0.8% since the beginning of September. That may not seem like much, but if companies say they expect more difficulty accessing supplies and that higher costs are persisting, analysts could revise 2022 estimates lower. “This sets up the first earnings season in the recovery where earnings risk clearly exists,” writes Tavis McCourt, institutional equity strategist at Raymond James.<blockquote>盈利预测已经开始反映这些不利因素。自9月初以来，第三季度预测已下降约0.8%。这看起来可能不多，但如果企业表示预计获取供应将更加困难，并且成本持续上涨，分析师可能会下调 2022 年的预期。“雷蒙德-詹姆斯公司（Raymond James）机构股票策略师塔维斯-麦考特（Tavis McCourt）写道：”这标志着经济复苏中第一个明显存在盈利风险的财报季。</blockquote> The good news? The S&amp;P 500 is down 3.8% from its Sept. 2 all-time high, so there’s a chance that some of the earnings risks are already reflected in the market.<blockquote>好消息？标普500比 9 月 2 日的历史高点下跌了 3.8%，因此部分盈利风险有可能已经反映在市场上。</blockquote> The question is whether it’s enough.<blockquote>问题是这是否足够。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-earnings-season-preview-51633995452?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-earnings-season-preview-51633995452?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160581040","content_text":"Earnings season kicks off this week—and it may take some unusually impressive results for stocks to rise after them.\nReports from S&P 500 companies have been trickling in—only 21 companies in the index had reported through Monday—but this week marks the beginning of what is known as earnings season. Investors will hear from Delta Air Lines (DAL),Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH), plus, banking heavyweights JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Bank of America(BAC). It will provide a view of how businesses performed during the third quarter of 2021, and offer a glimpse into coming quarters as well.\nAnalysts are forecasting aggregate earnings per share on the S&P 500 to grow 24.5%, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Some of the most economically sensitive sectors are still expecting the largest rebound in EPS, as last year’s third quarter was still ravaged by partial lockdowns. S&P 500 industrial and material companies are expected to see 73% and 90% year-over-year growth, respectively, with energy expected to go from losses to profits. Two of the slowest growing sectors will be the traditionally non-volatile and highly stable consumer staples and utility sectors, expected to see EPS grow 3% and fall 2.9%, respectively.\nNo matter the predicted growth, companies need to post big earnings beats in order for their shares to gain much. The S&P 500 has already risen 17.9% this year, as companies benefited from the unprecedented reopening following Covid-19 shutdowns and trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus. As a result, valuations already reflect a large earnings stream, with the average S&P 500 stock trading at around 20.5 times 12-month forward earnings estimates, above the long-term average in the mid-teens. For the market to live up to those valuations, the index needs to beat expectations by at least 10% in order to rally into year-end, writes Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek.\nThat won’t be easy. Nike (NKE) and FedEx (FDX), for example, posted mixed results as supply chain constraints and rising costs ate into sales and profit margins, causing the stocks to fall 6% and 9%, respectively, the trading day after their earnings reports. The size of earnings beats from early reporters has been shrinking as well. So far, early reporters have topped earnings forecasts by just 4%, well below the 23.2% and 15.5% during the second quarter in 2020 and 2021.\n“We believe that economic headwinds will mitigate the benefits from pricing power and operating leverage, leading to less robust surprises in the third quarter,” writes Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse.\nEarnings estimates have begun to reflect those headwinds. Third-quarter forecasts have fallen about 0.8% since the beginning of September. That may not seem like much, but if companies say they expect more difficulty accessing supplies and that higher costs are persisting, analysts could revise 2022 estimates lower. “This sets up the first earnings season in the recovery where earnings risk clearly exists,” writes Tavis McCourt, institutional equity strategist at Raymond James.\nThe good news? The S&P 500 is down 3.8% from its Sept. 2 all-time high, so there’s a chance that some of the earnings risks are already reflected in the market.\nThe question is whether it’s enough.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1166,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/826725818"}