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2021-10-12

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Earnings are headed for an all-time high, if supply-chain and staffing woes don't get in the way<blockquote>如果供应链和人员问题不妨碍，盈利将创历史新高</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":826505037,"tweetId":"826505037","gmtCreate":1634032984985,"gmtModify":1634033072772,"author":{"id":3572914809308233,"idStr":"3572914809308233","authorId":3572914809308233,"authorIdStr":"3572914809308233","name":"raidou","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d897c7c5c5ab650d7cee80180e68677f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":60,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Test</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Test</body></html>","text":"Test","highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826505037","repostId":2174186940,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2174186940","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1634030423,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2174186940?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 17:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Earnings are headed for an all-time high, if supply-chain and staffing woes don't get in the way<blockquote>如果供应链和人员问题不妨碍，盈利将创历史新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2174186940","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"EarningsWatch: After the first half produced more profit than the S&P 500 had ever seen in a six-mon","content":"EarningsWatch: After the first half produced more profit than the S&amp;P 500 had ever seen in a six-month period, expectations for the most profitable year ever face questions amid current difficulties<blockquote>盈利观察：上半年的利润超过了标普500六个月以来的最高水平，但在当前的困难中，有史以来最赚钱的一年的预期面临着质疑</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15819c7944ca6be45c3e529c11e5934a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto<blockquote>MarketWatch 照片插图/iStockphoto</blockquote> Corporate earnings reached a record in the first half of 2021, and analysts expect that the rest of the year will add up to yet another record-breaker.<blockquote>2021年上半年企业盈利创下历史新高，分析师预计今年剩余时间将再创历史新高。</blockquote> There are some concerns about that path, however. Namely, the issues that industries are experiencing as staffing shortages impact the supply chain, which could hurt the ability of retailers to get enough goods to sell to consumers this holiday season.<blockquote>然而，人们对这条道路有一些担忧。也就是说，各行业因人员短缺而面临的问题影响了供应链，这可能会损害零售商在这个假期获得足够商品出售给消费者的能力。</blockquote> As earnings season kicks off this week, analysts expect that S&amp;P 500 earnings will increase 27.6% year over year, which seems strong until you compare it with the two previous quarters -- earnings increased 52.8% in the first quarter and 92.4% in the second quarter, as companies lapped the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Those two quarters produced the largest net income on record for a six-month period, according to Dow Jones Market Data, which has records dating back to 2008.<blockquote>随着本周财报季的开始，分析师预计标普500的盈利将同比增长 27.6%，在与前两个季度进行比较之前，这似乎很强劲——第一季度盈利增长了 52.8%，第二季度增长了 92.4%，随着公司迎来了 COVID-19 大流行的开始。根据道琼斯市场数据，这两个季度产生了六个月以来有记录以来最大的净利润，该数据的记录可以追溯到 2008 年。</blockquote> Expectations are for the second half -- which is typically bigger, thanks to back-to-school and holiday shopping -- to produce the biggest profit for the year as well. But companies are starting to get nervous about the supply-chain issues that have popped up and could get in the way of continued earnings power.<blockquote>预计下半年（由于返校和假日购物，下半年通常会更大）也将产生今年最大的利润。但企业开始对出现的供应链问题感到紧张，这些问题可能会阻碍持续的盈利能力。</blockquote> So far this young earnings season, 21 companies have reported third-quarter earnings, and nearly three-fourths of them -- 15 of the 21 -- have mentioned negative effects of supply-chain disruptions in their earnings calls, FactSet Senior Earnings Analyst John Butters wrote in a note Friday. Just behind, with 14 of the 21, was staffing issues and labor costs, which are believed to be at the heart of the supply-chain issues.<blockquote>FactSet 高级收益分析师 John Butters 在周五的一份报告中写道，到目前为止，已有 21 家公司公布了第三季度收益，其中近四分之三（21 家公司中的 15 家）在其收益评级中提到了供应链中断的负面影响。紧随其后的是人员配备问题和劳动力成本，21 个问题中有 14 个，这被认为是供应链问题的核心。</blockquote> Those issues could show up in many places, including lost revenue from the inability to obtain goods and services to sell to consumers or companies, but also in the costs that companies must bear. For instance, large retailers such as Walmart Inc., Target Corp., Home Depot Inc.&nbsp;and Costco Wholesale Corp.&nbsp;have taken to chartering their own ships to ensure supply, which will show up in their costs and could cut into profit.<blockquote>这些问题可能出现在许多地方，包括因无法获得商品和服务出售给消费者或公司而造成的收入损失，以及公司必须承担的成本。例如，沃尔玛公司、塔吉特公司、家得宝公司和好市多批发公司等大型零售商已经开始租用自己的船只来确保供应，这将反映在他们的成本中，并可能削减利润。</blockquote> For investors, the prospect of supply-chain and staffing issues getting in the way of an earnings beat is not a small matter. The S&amp;P 500 is trading well ahead of its five- and 10-year average for forward price-to-earnings, as Butters pointed out, with a forward P/E of 20.5, though that number is at one of its lowest points of the past 18 months.<blockquote>对于投资者来说，供应链和人员问题阻碍盈利增长的前景不是一件小事。正如巴特斯指出的那样，标普500的远期市盈率远远领先于 5 年和 10 年平均水平，远期市盈率为 20.5，尽管该数字处于过去 18 个月的最低点之一。</blockquote> Butters pointed out the still elevated P/E ratio is partly because investors expect companies to beat on earnings, as they have historically. During the past five years, actual earnings for the S&amp;P 500 have outpaced expected earnings by 8.4% on average, leading the earnings growth rate to top the expected rate by an average of 7.2% throughout the earnings season. Those numbers have exploded higher in the past five quarters, however, as concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic have failed to show up in corporate earnings results, with outperformance in that period hitting 19.1% on average, according to Butters.<blockquote>巴特斯指出，市盈率仍然较高，部分原因是投资者预计公司将像历史上那样实现盈利。过去五年，标普500的实际盈利平均超出预期盈利8.4%，整个财报季的盈利增长率平均超出预期7.2%。然而，巴特斯表示，由于对 COVID-19 大流行的担忧未能反映在企业盈利结果中，这些数字在过去五个季度中飙升，同期的平均表现达到 19.1%。</blockquote> DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote in a Monday morning research note that companies will have to come closer to the second number than the first to see any gains for stocks in the coming months.<blockquote>DataTrek Research 联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯 (Nicholas Colas) 在周一上午的一份研究报告中写道，未来几个月，公司必须接近第二个数字而不是第一个数字，才能看到股票上涨。</blockquote> \"The companies of the S&amp;P 500 need to beat by an aggregate 10 percentage points this quarter, or we've almost certainly seen the highs on U.S. equity markets for the year,\" he wrote.<blockquote>他写道：“标普500公司本季度总共需要超过 10 个百分点，否则我们几乎肯定会看到美国股市今年的高点。”</blockquote> The flood of reports really kicks off this week, with banks and other early reports.<blockquote>大量报告真正在本周拉开帷幕，银行和其他早期报告纷至沓来。</blockquote> The number(s) to watch<blockquote>要观看的数字</blockquote> \"Investors would do well to view per-share earnings carefully, because banks have been shifting loan loss reserves that they built up in the early days of the COVID pandemic to their bottom line as the economy has improved,\" Gelsi wrote. \"This practice allows banks to operate within regulatory boundaries around loan loss reserves, while providing a lift to beat their quarterly EPS estimates.\"<blockquote>盖尔西写道：“投资者最好仔细查看每股收益，因为随着经济的改善，银行一直在将新冠疫情初期积累的贷款损失准备金转移到其底线。”“这种做法使银行能够在贷款损失准备金周围的监管范围内运营，同时提供了超出季度每股收益预期的动力。”</blockquote> <ul> <li>Banks’ lending activity. MarketWatch reporter Steve Gelsi cautioned investors against getting excited for big earnings totals from the big banks in their reports this week.</li> </ul> <blockquote><ul><li>银行的贷款活动。MarketWatch 记者 Steve Gelsi 在本周的报告中警告投资者不要对大银行的巨额盈利总额感到兴奋。</li></ul></blockquote> Earnings from the financial sector are expected to grow more than 17% in the third quarter, while sales are expected to increase at half that rate, 7.5%. The banking subsector specifically is only expected to show sales growth of 1.6%, while profit is expected to rise 22.8%, according to FactSet.<blockquote>第三季度金融业盈利预计将增长 17% 以上，而销售额预计将增长一半，即 7.5%。FactSet 的数据显示，具体而言，银行业的销售额预计仅增长 1.6%，而利润预计将增长 22.8%。</blockquote> Bank stocks were pretty sedentary in the third quarter, as investor figured out the trick. To find another leg higher, banks are going to have to prove they can still win loan business that is getting siphoned off by some of the next-generation financial-technology players in the market. Look for figures and commentary on that dynamic as the season plays out.<blockquote>随着投资者发现诀窍，银行股在第三季度相当稳定。为了找到另一条更高的腿，银行必须证明他们仍然可以赢得贷款业务，而贷款业务正被市场上的一些下一代金融科技参与者抽走。随着赛季的进行，寻找关于这种动态的数据和评论。</blockquote> The calls to put on your calendar<blockquote>放在日历上的评级</blockquote> <ul> <li>JB Hunt and Fastenal. While not typically the most exciting company to track, trucking company J.B. Hunt Transfer Services Inc. is the type of player you will need to watch this season to understand the depth and length of the current supply-chain woes.</li> </ul> <blockquote><ul><li>JB亨特和紧固件。虽然卡车运输公司J.B.通常不是最令人兴奋的公司。Hunt Transfer Services Inc.是你本赛季需要关注的类型，以了解当前供应链困境的深度和长度。</li></ul></blockquote> The trucking industry has been on an extreme uptick as the goods coming into ports need to move across continents, but staffing issues have become a larger concern, as has the longevity of the increase.<blockquote>随着进入港口的货物需要跨越各大洲运输，卡车运输业一直在急剧上升，但人员配备问题已成为一个更大的问题，增长的持续时间也是如此。</blockquote> \"Investor sentiment is increasingly of the belief that every record quarter that passes brings the trucking upturn one quarter closer to peaking and the inevitable downturn; yet, that important inflection point keeps getting pushed to the right, with the stronger-for-longer freight backdrop showing no end in sight,\" Evercore ISI analysts wrote last week.<blockquote>“投资者越来越相信，每个创纪录的季度过去都会使卡车运输的好转更接近一个季度的峰值和不可避免的低迷；然而，随着货运背景的增强，这个重要的拐点不断被推向右侧。长期看不到尽头，”Evercore ISI 分析师上周写道。</blockquote> Look for earnings from JB Hunt on Friday morning for more insight.<blockquote>请关注周五上午 JB Hunt 的财报，了解更多信息。</blockquote> <ul> <li>Delta. Delta Air Lines Inc.&nbsp;will be the first airline to report this quarter, and could be a harbinger of things to come this holiday travel season. As MarketWatch explained in-depth about this earnings season, the good numbers shared in recent months by companies in specific sectors — especially travel — should be taken with a very large grain of salt due to the potential dangers ahead. Pay close attention with Delta reports Wednesday morning for signs on other airlines and the travel industry as a whole.</li> </ul> <blockquote><ul><li>三角洲。达美航空公司（Delta Air Lines Inc.）将是本季度第一家发布报告的航空公司，这可能是这个假日旅游季节即将到来的事情的先兆。正如 MarketWatch 对本财报季的深入解释一样，由于未来存在潜在危险，特定行业（尤其是旅游业）的公司近几个月来分享的良好数据应该持怀疑态度。请密切关注达美航空周三上午的报告，了解其他航空公司和整个旅游业的迹象。</li></ul></blockquote> This week in earnings<blockquote>本周收益</blockquote> Four of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average components are on track to report this week, while 18 S&amp;P 500 companies are expected to reveal numbers. Outside of the major indexes, keep an eye out for Alcoa Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">$(AA)$</a>, which used to matter a lot more than it does now.<blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数 30 只成分股中有 4 只有望于本周发布报告，而 18 家标普500公司预计将公布数据。除了主要指数之外，请关注美国铝业公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">$(AA)$</a>这曾经比现在重要得多。</blockquote> Dow Jones Industrial Average reports: JP Morgan Chase &amp; Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">$(JPM)$</a> (Wednesday); <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA.AU\">$(WBA.AU)$</a> and UnitedHealth Group Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">$(UNH)$</a> (Thursday); Goldman Sachs Group Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">$(GS)$</a> (Friday)<blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数报告：摩根大通公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">$(摩根大通)$</a>（星期三）；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">沃尔格林博姿联盟</a>公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA.AU\">$(WBA.AU)$</a>和联合健康集团公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">$(UNH)$</a>（星期四）；高盛集团公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">$(GS)$</a>（星期五）</blockquote> S&amp;P 500 reports<blockquote>标普500报告</blockquote> Tuesday: Fastenal Corp.<blockquote>星期二：紧固件公司</blockquote> Wednesday: BlackRock Inc., Delta, First Republic Bank, JPMorgan<blockquote>星期三：贝莱德公司、达美航空、第一共和银行、摩根大通</blockquote> Thursday: $Bank of America Corp(BAC-N)$., $Citigroup Inc(C-N)$., Domino's Pizza, Inc., <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>, UnitedHealth Group, U.S. Bancorp, Walgreens, Wells Fargo &amp; Co.<blockquote>星期四：$美国银行(BAC-N)$.、$花旗集团(C-N)$.、达美乐披萨公司，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>、联合健康集团、合众银行、沃尔格林、富国银行。</blockquote> Friday: Goldman Sachs, J.B. Hunt, PNC Financial Services Group Inc., Prologis Inc., <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TFC\">Truist Financial Corp</a>.<blockquote>星期五：高盛，J.B。亨特、PNC金融服务集团公司、普洛斯公司、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TFC\">Truist金融公司</a>.</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Earnings are headed for an all-time high, if supply-chain and staffing woes don't get in the way<blockquote>如果供应链和人员问题不妨碍，盈利将创历史新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEarnings are headed for an all-time high, if supply-chain and staffing woes don't get in the way<blockquote>如果供应链和人员问题不妨碍，盈利将创历史新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-10-12 17:20\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nEarningsWatch: After the first half produced more profit than the S&amp;P 500 had ever seen in a six-month period, expectations for the most profitable year ever face questions amid current difficulties<blockquote>盈利观察：上半年的利润超过了标普500六个月以来的最高水平，但在当前的困难中，有史以来最赚钱的一年的预期面临着质疑</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15819c7944ca6be45c3e529c11e5934a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto<blockquote>MarketWatch 照片插图/iStockphoto</blockquote> Corporate earnings reached a record in the first half of 2021, and analysts expect that the rest of the year will add up to yet another record-breaker.<blockquote>2021年上半年企业盈利创下历史新高，分析师预计今年剩余时间将再创历史新高。</blockquote> There are some concerns about that path, however. Namely, the issues that industries are experiencing as staffing shortages impact the supply chain, which could hurt the ability of retailers to get enough goods to sell to consumers this holiday season.<blockquote>然而，人们对这条道路有一些担忧。也就是说，各行业因人员短缺而面临的问题影响了供应链，这可能会损害零售商在这个假期获得足够商品出售给消费者的能力。</blockquote> As earnings season kicks off this week, analysts expect that S&amp;P 500 earnings will increase 27.6% year over year, which seems strong until you compare it with the two previous quarters -- earnings increased 52.8% in the first quarter and 92.4% in the second quarter, as companies lapped the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Those two quarters produced the largest net income on record for a six-month period, according to Dow Jones Market Data, which has records dating back to 2008.<blockquote>随着本周财报季的开始，分析师预计标普500的盈利将同比增长 27.6%，在与前两个季度进行比较之前，这似乎很强劲——第一季度盈利增长了 52.8%，第二季度增长了 92.4%，随着公司迎来了 COVID-19 大流行的开始。根据道琼斯市场数据，这两个季度产生了六个月以来有记录以来最大的净利润，该数据的记录可以追溯到 2008 年。</blockquote> Expectations are for the second half -- which is typically bigger, thanks to back-to-school and holiday shopping -- to produce the biggest profit for the year as well. But companies are starting to get nervous about the supply-chain issues that have popped up and could get in the way of continued earnings power.<blockquote>预计下半年（由于返校和假日购物，下半年通常会更大）也将产生今年最大的利润。但企业开始对出现的供应链问题感到紧张，这些问题可能会阻碍持续的盈利能力。</blockquote> So far this young earnings season, 21 companies have reported third-quarter earnings, and nearly three-fourths of them -- 15 of the 21 -- have mentioned negative effects of supply-chain disruptions in their earnings calls, FactSet Senior Earnings Analyst John Butters wrote in a note Friday. Just behind, with 14 of the 21, was staffing issues and labor costs, which are believed to be at the heart of the supply-chain issues.<blockquote>FactSet 高级收益分析师 John Butters 在周五的一份报告中写道，到目前为止，已有 21 家公司公布了第三季度收益，其中近四分之三（21 家公司中的 15 家）在其收益评级中提到了供应链中断的负面影响。紧随其后的是人员配备问题和劳动力成本，21 个问题中有 14 个，这被认为是供应链问题的核心。</blockquote> Those issues could show up in many places, including lost revenue from the inability to obtain goods and services to sell to consumers or companies, but also in the costs that companies must bear. For instance, large retailers such as Walmart Inc., Target Corp., Home Depot Inc.&nbsp;and Costco Wholesale Corp.&nbsp;have taken to chartering their own ships to ensure supply, which will show up in their costs and could cut into profit.<blockquote>这些问题可能出现在许多地方，包括因无法获得商品和服务出售给消费者或公司而造成的收入损失，以及公司必须承担的成本。例如，沃尔玛公司、塔吉特公司、家得宝公司和好市多批发公司等大型零售商已经开始租用自己的船只来确保供应，这将反映在他们的成本中，并可能削减利润。</blockquote> For investors, the prospect of supply-chain and staffing issues getting in the way of an earnings beat is not a small matter. The S&amp;P 500 is trading well ahead of its five- and 10-year average for forward price-to-earnings, as Butters pointed out, with a forward P/E of 20.5, though that number is at one of its lowest points of the past 18 months.<blockquote>对于投资者来说，供应链和人员问题阻碍盈利增长的前景不是一件小事。正如巴特斯指出的那样，标普500的远期市盈率远远领先于 5 年和 10 年平均水平，远期市盈率为 20.5，尽管该数字处于过去 18 个月的最低点之一。</blockquote> Butters pointed out the still elevated P/E ratio is partly because investors expect companies to beat on earnings, as they have historically. During the past five years, actual earnings for the S&amp;P 500 have outpaced expected earnings by 8.4% on average, leading the earnings growth rate to top the expected rate by an average of 7.2% throughout the earnings season. Those numbers have exploded higher in the past five quarters, however, as concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic have failed to show up in corporate earnings results, with outperformance in that period hitting 19.1% on average, according to Butters.<blockquote>巴特斯指出，市盈率仍然较高，部分原因是投资者预计公司将像历史上那样实现盈利。过去五年，标普500的实际盈利平均超出预期盈利8.4%，整个财报季的盈利增长率平均超出预期7.2%。然而，巴特斯表示，由于对 COVID-19 大流行的担忧未能反映在企业盈利结果中，这些数字在过去五个季度中飙升，同期的平均表现达到 19.1%。</blockquote> DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote in a Monday morning research note that companies will have to come closer to the second number than the first to see any gains for stocks in the coming months.<blockquote>DataTrek Research 联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯 (Nicholas Colas) 在周一上午的一份研究报告中写道，未来几个月，公司必须接近第二个数字而不是第一个数字，才能看到股票上涨。</blockquote> \"The companies of the S&amp;P 500 need to beat by an aggregate 10 percentage points this quarter, or we've almost certainly seen the highs on U.S. equity markets for the year,\" he wrote.<blockquote>他写道：“标普500公司本季度总共需要超过 10 个百分点，否则我们几乎肯定会看到美国股市今年的高点。”</blockquote> The flood of reports really kicks off this week, with banks and other early reports.<blockquote>大量报告真正在本周拉开帷幕，银行和其他早期报告纷至沓来。</blockquote> The number(s) to watch<blockquote>要观看的数字</blockquote> \"Investors would do well to view per-share earnings carefully, because banks have been shifting loan loss reserves that they built up in the early days of the COVID pandemic to their bottom line as the economy has improved,\" Gelsi wrote. \"This practice allows banks to operate within regulatory boundaries around loan loss reserves, while providing a lift to beat their quarterly EPS estimates.\"<blockquote>盖尔西写道：“投资者最好仔细查看每股收益，因为随着经济的改善，银行一直在将新冠疫情初期积累的贷款损失准备金转移到其底线。”“这种做法使银行能够在贷款损失准备金周围的监管范围内运营，同时提供了超出季度每股收益预期的动力。”</blockquote> <ul> <li>Banks’ lending activity. MarketWatch reporter Steve Gelsi cautioned investors against getting excited for big earnings totals from the big banks in their reports this week.</li> </ul> <blockquote><ul><li>银行的贷款活动。MarketWatch 记者 Steve Gelsi 在本周的报告中警告投资者不要对大银行的巨额盈利总额感到兴奋。</li></ul></blockquote> Earnings from the financial sector are expected to grow more than 17% in the third quarter, while sales are expected to increase at half that rate, 7.5%. The banking subsector specifically is only expected to show sales growth of 1.6%, while profit is expected to rise 22.8%, according to FactSet.<blockquote>第三季度金融业盈利预计将增长 17% 以上，而销售额预计将增长一半，即 7.5%。FactSet 的数据显示，具体而言，银行业的销售额预计仅增长 1.6%，而利润预计将增长 22.8%。</blockquote> Bank stocks were pretty sedentary in the third quarter, as investor figured out the trick. To find another leg higher, banks are going to have to prove they can still win loan business that is getting siphoned off by some of the next-generation financial-technology players in the market. Look for figures and commentary on that dynamic as the season plays out.<blockquote>随着投资者发现诀窍，银行股在第三季度相当稳定。为了找到另一条更高的腿，银行必须证明他们仍然可以赢得贷款业务，而贷款业务正被市场上的一些下一代金融科技参与者抽走。随着赛季的进行，寻找关于这种动态的数据和评论。</blockquote> The calls to put on your calendar<blockquote>放在日历上的评级</blockquote> <ul> <li>JB Hunt and Fastenal. While not typically the most exciting company to track, trucking company J.B. Hunt Transfer Services Inc. is the type of player you will need to watch this season to understand the depth and length of the current supply-chain woes.</li> </ul> <blockquote><ul><li>JB亨特和紧固件。虽然卡车运输公司J.B.通常不是最令人兴奋的公司。Hunt Transfer Services Inc.是你本赛季需要关注的类型，以了解当前供应链困境的深度和长度。</li></ul></blockquote> The trucking industry has been on an extreme uptick as the goods coming into ports need to move across continents, but staffing issues have become a larger concern, as has the longevity of the increase.<blockquote>随着进入港口的货物需要跨越各大洲运输，卡车运输业一直在急剧上升，但人员配备问题已成为一个更大的问题，增长的持续时间也是如此。</blockquote> \"Investor sentiment is increasingly of the belief that every record quarter that passes brings the trucking upturn one quarter closer to peaking and the inevitable downturn; yet, that important inflection point keeps getting pushed to the right, with the stronger-for-longer freight backdrop showing no end in sight,\" Evercore ISI analysts wrote last week.<blockquote>“投资者越来越相信，每个创纪录的季度过去都会使卡车运输的好转更接近一个季度的峰值和不可避免的低迷；然而，随着货运背景的增强，这个重要的拐点不断被推向右侧。长期看不到尽头，”Evercore ISI 分析师上周写道。</blockquote> Look for earnings from JB Hunt on Friday morning for more insight.<blockquote>请关注周五上午 JB Hunt 的财报，了解更多信息。</blockquote> <ul> <li>Delta. Delta Air Lines Inc.&nbsp;will be the first airline to report this quarter, and could be a harbinger of things to come this holiday travel season. As MarketWatch explained in-depth about this earnings season, the good numbers shared in recent months by companies in specific sectors — especially travel — should be taken with a very large grain of salt due to the potential dangers ahead. Pay close attention with Delta reports Wednesday morning for signs on other airlines and the travel industry as a whole.</li> </ul> <blockquote><ul><li>三角洲。达美航空公司（Delta Air Lines Inc.）将是本季度第一家发布报告的航空公司，这可能是这个假日旅游季节即将到来的事情的先兆。正如 MarketWatch 对本财报季的深入解释一样，由于未来存在潜在危险，特定行业（尤其是旅游业）的公司近几个月来分享的良好数据应该持怀疑态度。请密切关注达美航空周三上午的报告，了解其他航空公司和整个旅游业的迹象。</li></ul></blockquote> This week in earnings<blockquote>本周收益</blockquote> Four of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average components are on track to report this week, while 18 S&amp;P 500 companies are expected to reveal numbers. Outside of the major indexes, keep an eye out for Alcoa Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">$(AA)$</a>, which used to matter a lot more than it does now.<blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数 30 只成分股中有 4 只有望于本周发布报告，而 18 家标普500公司预计将公布数据。除了主要指数之外，请关注美国铝业公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">$(AA)$</a>这曾经比现在重要得多。</blockquote> Dow Jones Industrial Average reports: JP Morgan Chase &amp; Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">$(JPM)$</a> (Wednesday); <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA.AU\">$(WBA.AU)$</a> and UnitedHealth Group Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">$(UNH)$</a> (Thursday); Goldman Sachs Group Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">$(GS)$</a> (Friday)<blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数报告：摩根大通公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">$(摩根大通)$</a>（星期三）；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">沃尔格林博姿联盟</a>公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA.AU\">$(WBA.AU)$</a>和联合健康集团公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">$(UNH)$</a>（星期四）；高盛集团公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">$(GS)$</a>（星期五）</blockquote> S&amp;P 500 reports<blockquote>标普500报告</blockquote> Tuesday: Fastenal Corp.<blockquote>星期二：紧固件公司</blockquote> Wednesday: BlackRock Inc., Delta, First Republic Bank, JPMorgan<blockquote>星期三：贝莱德公司、达美航空、第一共和银行、摩根大通</blockquote> Thursday: $Bank of America Corp(BAC-N)$., $Citigroup Inc(C-N)$., Domino's Pizza, Inc., <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>, UnitedHealth Group, U.S. Bancorp, Walgreens, Wells Fargo &amp; Co.<blockquote>星期四：$美国银行(BAC-N)$.、$花旗集团(C-N)$.、达美乐披萨公司，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>、联合健康集团、合众银行、沃尔格林、富国银行。</blockquote> Friday: Goldman Sachs, J.B. Hunt, PNC Financial Services Group Inc., Prologis Inc., <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TFC\">Truist Financial Corp</a>.<blockquote>星期五：高盛，J.B。亨特、PNC金融服务集团公司、普洛斯公司、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TFC\">Truist金融公司</a>.</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/earnings-are-headed-for-an-all-time-high-if-supply-chain-and-staffing-woes-dont-get-in-the-way-11633992287?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DAL":"达美航空",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","JBHT":"JB Hunt运输服务","JPM":"摩根大通","GS":"高盛","C":"花旗","WFC":"富国银行",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/earnings-are-headed-for-an-all-time-high-if-supply-chain-and-staffing-woes-dont-get-in-the-way-11633992287?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2174186940","content_text":"EarningsWatch: After the first half produced more profit than the S&P 500 had ever seen in a six-month period, expectations for the most profitable year ever face questions amid current difficulties\nMarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto\nCorporate earnings reached a record in the first half of 2021, and analysts expect that the rest of the year will add up to yet another record-breaker.\nThere are some concerns about that path, however. Namely, the issues that industries are experiencing as staffing shortages impact the supply chain, which could hurt the ability of retailers to get enough goods to sell to consumers this holiday season.\nAs earnings season kicks off this week, analysts expect that S&P 500 earnings will increase 27.6% year over year, which seems strong until you compare it with the two previous quarters -- earnings increased 52.8% in the first quarter and 92.4% in the second quarter, as companies lapped the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Those two quarters produced the largest net income on record for a six-month period, according to Dow Jones Market Data, which has records dating back to 2008.\nExpectations are for the second half -- which is typically bigger, thanks to back-to-school and holiday shopping -- to produce the biggest profit for the year as well. But companies are starting to get nervous about the supply-chain issues that have popped up and could get in the way of continued earnings power.\nSo far this young earnings season, 21 companies have reported third-quarter earnings, and nearly three-fourths of them -- 15 of the 21 -- have mentioned negative effects of supply-chain disruptions in their earnings calls, FactSet Senior Earnings Analyst John Butters wrote in a note Friday. Just behind, with 14 of the 21, was staffing issues and labor costs, which are believed to be at the heart of the supply-chain issues.\nThose issues could show up in many places, including lost revenue from the inability to obtain goods and services to sell to consumers or companies, but also in the costs that companies must bear. For instance, large retailers such as Walmart Inc., Target Corp., Home Depot Inc. and Costco Wholesale Corp. have taken to chartering their own ships to ensure supply, which will show up in their costs and could cut into profit.\nFor investors, the prospect of supply-chain and staffing issues getting in the way of an earnings beat is not a small matter. The S&P 500 is trading well ahead of its five- and 10-year average for forward price-to-earnings, as Butters pointed out, with a forward P/E of 20.5, though that number is at one of its lowest points of the past 18 months.\nButters pointed out the still elevated P/E ratio is partly because investors expect companies to beat on earnings, as they have historically. During the past five years, actual earnings for the S&P 500 have outpaced expected earnings by 8.4% on average, leading the earnings growth rate to top the expected rate by an average of 7.2% throughout the earnings season. Those numbers have exploded higher in the past five quarters, however, as concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic have failed to show up in corporate earnings results, with outperformance in that period hitting 19.1% on average, according to Butters.\nDataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote in a Monday morning research note that companies will have to come closer to the second number than the first to see any gains for stocks in the coming months.\n\"The companies of the S&P 500 need to beat by an aggregate 10 percentage points this quarter, or we've almost certainly seen the highs on U.S. equity markets for the year,\" he wrote.\nThe flood of reports really kicks off this week, with banks and other early reports.\nThe number(s) to watch\n\"Investors would do well to view per-share earnings carefully, because banks have been shifting loan loss reserves that they built up in the early days of the COVID pandemic to their bottom line as the economy has improved,\" Gelsi wrote. \"This practice allows banks to operate within regulatory boundaries around loan loss reserves, while providing a lift to beat their quarterly EPS estimates.\"\n\n\nBanks’ lending activity. MarketWatch reporter Steve Gelsi cautioned investors against getting excited for big earnings totals from the big banks in their reports this week.\n\n\nEarnings from the financial sector are expected to grow more than 17% in the third quarter, while sales are expected to increase at half that rate, 7.5%. The banking subsector specifically is only expected to show sales growth of 1.6%, while profit is expected to rise 22.8%, according to FactSet.\nBank stocks were pretty sedentary in the third quarter, as investor figured out the trick. To find another leg higher, banks are going to have to prove they can still win loan business that is getting siphoned off by some of the next-generation financial-technology players in the market. Look for figures and commentary on that dynamic as the season plays out.\nThe calls to put on your calendar\n\n\nJB Hunt and Fastenal. While not typically the most exciting company to track, trucking company J.B. Hunt Transfer Services Inc. is the type of player you will need to watch this season to understand the depth and length of the current supply-chain woes.\n\n\nThe trucking industry has been on an extreme uptick as the goods coming into ports need to move across continents, but staffing issues have become a larger concern, as has the longevity of the increase.\n\"Investor sentiment is increasingly of the belief that every record quarter that passes brings the trucking upturn one quarter closer to peaking and the inevitable downturn; yet, that important inflection point keeps getting pushed to the right, with the stronger-for-longer freight backdrop showing no end in sight,\" Evercore ISI analysts wrote last week.\nLook for earnings from JB Hunt on Friday morning for more insight.\n\n\nDelta. Delta Air Lines Inc. will be the first airline to report this quarter, and could be a harbinger of things to come this holiday travel season. As MarketWatch explained in-depth about this earnings season, the good numbers shared in recent months by companies in specific sectors — especially travel — should be taken with a very large grain of salt due to the potential dangers ahead. Pay close attention with Delta reports Wednesday morning for signs on other airlines and the travel industry as a whole.\n\n\nThis week in earnings\nFour of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average components are on track to report this week, while 18 S&P 500 companies are expected to reveal numbers. Outside of the major indexes, keep an eye out for Alcoa Corp. $(AA)$, which used to matter a lot more than it does now.\nDow Jones Industrial Average reports: JP Morgan Chase & Co. $(JPM)$ (Wednesday); Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. $(WBA.AU)$ and UnitedHealth Group Inc. $(UNH)$ (Thursday); Goldman Sachs Group Inc. $(GS)$ (Friday)\nS&P 500 reports\nTuesday: Fastenal Corp.\nWednesday: BlackRock Inc., Delta, First Republic Bank, JPMorgan\nThursday: $Bank of America Corp(BAC-N)$., $Citigroup Inc(C-N)$., Domino's Pizza, Inc., Morgan Stanley, UnitedHealth Group, U.S. Bancorp, Walgreens, Wells Fargo & Co.\nFriday: Goldman Sachs, J.B. Hunt, PNC Financial Services Group Inc., Prologis Inc., Truist Financial Corp.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DAL":0.9,"GS":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"C":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"WFC":0.9,"JBHT":0.9,"MS":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"JPM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1136,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/826505037"}