samfernando
2021-10-12
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Nvidia Is Set To Turn Into A Cash Machine<blockquote>英伟达将变成提款机</blockquote>
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I believe Nvidia will grow into a massive cash machine over the next five years with an estimated annual free cash flow of $14.0B or more!</p><p><blockquote>随着游戏和数据中心收入的持续飙升，英伟达（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）是全球最值得拥有的成长型股票之一。我相信 Nvidia 将在未来五年内成长为一台巨大的提款机，预计每年自由现金流将达到 $14.0B 或更多!</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Nvidia is a long term buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么英伟达值得长期买入</b></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia just produces incredible growth. The firm generated 68% top line growth in the second-quarter, with revenues touching $6.51B due to soaring demand in the gaming and the data center segments. Gaming revenues surged to a record of $3.06B in the second-quarter, showing a year over year increase of 85%, chiefly because of strengthening sales in a severely undersupplied graphics cards market. Data center revenues also surged to a record, $2.37B in Q2’22, showing a year over year growth rate of 35%. With total revenues up by 68% and higher gross margins (66.7% in Q2’22), Nvidia’s commercial performance is getting better and better...</p><p><blockquote>英伟达刚刚产生了令人难以置信的增长。由于游戏和数据中心领域的需求飙升，该公司第二季度营收增长了 68%，收入达到 $6.51B。第二季度游戏收入飙升至创纪录的$3.06B，同比增长85%，主要是由于供应严重不足的显卡市场销售增强。2022 年第二季度数据中心收入也飙升至创纪录的 23.7 亿美元，同比增长率为 35%。随着总收入增长 68%，毛利率提高（2022 年第二季度为 66.7%），英伟达的商业业绩越来越好...</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1af1b5d7b0be554a0ef5ed7d3b79435\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"192\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Nvidia</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：英伟达</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But I don’t believe Nvidia’s business has peaked yet. I believe Nvidia will continue to grow rapidly because of increasing demand for high performance data centers that can handle incredible amounts of workloads and because Nvidia’s largest business by revenues, gaming, is seeing pricing support from end markets. Graphics cards have been flying off the shelf in 2020 and 2021, in part because cryptocurrency miners compete with gamers for GPUs. The result has been that graphics cards are in a shortage, leading to a significant increase in GPU pricing. AMD(NASDAQ:AMD)and Nvidia, the two largest suppliers of high performance graphics processing units, benefit from this trend the most.</p><p><blockquote>但我认为英伟达的业务还没有达到顶峰。我相信，英伟达将继续快速增长，因为人们对能够处理大量工作负载的高性能数据中心的需求不断增长，而且英伟达收入最大的业务游戏也得到了终端市场的定价支持。显卡在2020年和2021年已经下架，部分原因是加密货币矿工与游戏玩家争夺GPU。结果是显卡短缺，导致GPU价格大幅上涨。AMD（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英伟达是两家最大的高性能图形处理单元供应商，从这一趋势中受益最大。</blockquote></p><p> Top-tier graphics cards like AMD’s Radeon RX 6000 and Nvidia’s GeForce RTX 30 series have seen strong demand/pricing in 2021, and the steep decline in cryptocurrency prices in the second-quarter did not significantly lower demand. GPU prices peaked in May - at the top of the crypto boom - and have fallen since. However, pricing is still strong with the AMD Radeon RX series selling for 1.64x suggested retail price at the end of August. Nvidia’s GeForce 30 series sold for 1.59x MSRP in August, indicating consistently high demand for GPUs.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 的 Radeon RX 6000 和 Nvidia 的 GeForce RTX 30 系列等顶级显卡在 2021 年的需求/定价都很强劲，而第二季度加密货币价格的大幅下跌并没有显著降低需求。GPU价格在5月份达到顶峰——在加密货币繁荣的顶峰——此后一直在下降。然而，定价仍然强劲，AMD镭龙RX系列在8月底的售价是建议零售价的1.64倍。英伟达 GeForce 30 系列在 8 月份的售价为 1.59 倍，表明对 GPU 的需求一直很高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e234f2daf83e24fdb585fce43d5b3236\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"448\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FPS Reviews</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：FPS评论</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Because of excellent commercial performance in its main businesses,accelerating momentum in niche businesses and strength in GPU pricing, Nvidia is looking at a dramatic improvement in free cash flow over the next five years... supplying yet another reason to buy the shares!</p><p><blockquote>由于其主要业务的出色商业表现、利基业务的加速发展势头以及 GPU 定价的优势，英伟达预计未来五年自由现金流将大幅改善……提供了另一个购买股票的理由!</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia is projecting revenues of $6.8B +/- 2 percent for the third-quarter. Including Q3’22 revenue projections, Nvidia should post revenues of around $19.0B for the first nine months of FY 2022. Adding $7.0B in revenues on top of that for the fourth-quarter, and Nvidia is looking at revenues of around $26.0B for FY 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Nvidia 预计第三季度收入为 $6.8B +/- 2%。包括 22 财年第三季度的收入预测在内，英伟达 2022 财年前 9 个月的收入应约为 190 亿美元。除此之外，Nvidia 第四季度还增加了 $7.0B 的收入，预计 2022 财年的收入约为 $26.0B。</blockquote></p><p> The market projects revenues of $25.8B this year and $29.0B revenues next year (the assumption is for just 13% year over year growth in FY 2023). I believe revenues will be above $30.0B in FY 2023 due to strong business momentum and favorable GPU pricing. Nvidia’s revenues are projected to grow at an annual rate of 23% until FY 2026 (base year: FY 2021).</p><p><blockquote>市场预计今年收入为 25.8B 美元，明年收入为 29.0B 美元（假设 2023 财年同比仅增长 13%）。我相信，由于强劲的业务势头和有利的 GPU 定价，2023 财年的收入将超过 $30.0B。Nvidia 的收入预计将以每年 23% 的速度增长，直到 2026 财年（基准年：2021 财年）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c03f31d7f5924796294fe4ef344ff8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking at Nvidia’s revenue to cash conversion, consistently high free cash flow margins can be found. The semiconductor firm generated annual free cash flow margins ranging between 28% and 39% from FY 2018 to FY 2021 with an average annual margin of 31%. I believe a free cash flow margin around 30% can be sustained going forward, especially if pricing in the graphics cards market stays strong. Because cryptocurrency prices started to recover in the third-quarter, GPUs could even see accelerating demand in the future. Rising digital currency prices benefit Nvidia in two ways: They boost the cryptocurrency mining business/CMP which sells dedicated processors, and higher demand for GPUs improves end market pricing, meaning Nvidia can sell the same graphics card for a higher price. Nvidia’s free cash flow margin in the first six months of FY 2022 was above 33%, due chiefly to strength in GPU demand and pricing.</p><p><blockquote>从 Nvidia 的收入到现金的转换率来看，可以发现其自由现金流利润率一直很高。从2018财年到2021财年，该半导体公司产生的年度自由现金流利润率在28%至39%之间，平均年利润率为31%。我相信未来可以维持30%左右的自由现金流利润率，特别是如果显卡市场的定价保持强劲的话。由于加密货币价格在第三季度开始复苏，GPU 未来甚至可能出现加速需求。数字货币价格上涨在两个方面使英伟达受益：它们促进了销售专用处理器的加密货币挖矿业务/CMP，对GPU的更高需求提高了终端市场定价，这意味着英伟达可以以更高的价格销售相同的显卡。英伟达 2022 财年前六个月的自由现金流利润率超过 33%，这主要得益于 GPU 需求和定价的强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9e05cd7aa4844f19e4ba0899754633f\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"731\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning back to revenue projections.</p><p><blockquote>回到收入预测。</blockquote></p><p> The FY 2023 market expectation is for Nvidia to have revenues of $29.0B. Assuming a 30% free cash flow margin, Nvidia is looking at $8.7B in free cash flow next year... which is a 100% improvement over the firm's FY 2020 level of free cash flow. I believe the FY 2023 revenue estimate underestimates Nvidia’s growth potential next year as I see persistent strength in gaming and data centers, and a higher than 13% annual revenue growth rate. However, revenue estimates for Nvidia, for this year and next year, are rising...</p><p><blockquote>市场预期 Nvidia 2023 财年的收入为 29.0B 美元。假设自由现金流利润率为 30%，Nvidia 预计明年的自由现金流为 8.7B 美元……这比公司2020财年的自由现金流水平提高了100%。我认为 2023 财年的收入预测低估了英伟达明年的增长潜力，因为我认为英伟达在游戏和数据中心领域的持续增长，年收入增长率高于 13%。然而，英伟达今年和明年的收入预期正在上升……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d979b6088a67cf25c6993d40c574bb7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If we were also to assume that Nvidia can generate 30% free cash flow margins in the future, Nvidia’s annual free cash flow is set to surpass $14B by FY 2026. In CAGR terms, this means that Nvidia will grow free cash flow at a 25% annual rate over the next five years. Nvidia may grow free cash flow at a faster rate if revenues also grow faster. I believe this will happen because the RTX upgrade cycle will lead to a higher volume of higher-priced GPUs being sold in the future, which is set to boost FCF margins.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们还假设英伟达未来能产生 30% 的自由现金流利润率，那么到 2026 财年，英伟达的年度自由现金流将超过 140 亿美元。以CAGR计算，这意味着英伟达将在未来五年内以每年25%的速度增长自由现金流。如果收入增长更快，英伟达的自由现金流可能会以更快的速度增长。我相信这种情况会发生，因为 RTX 升级周期将导致未来售出更多高价 GPU，这将提高 FCF 利润率。</blockquote></p><p> As Nvidia releases more top-tier, higher margin graphics cards and gamers upgrade their equipment, Nvidia's free cash flow margins could even expand beyond 30%. Assuming a, say, 35% revenue to free cash flow conversion, Nvidia could generate up to $16.4B in annual free cash flow by FY 2026… which would imply a FCF CAGR of not 25%, but 29%.</p><p><blockquote>随着英伟达发布更多顶级、更高利润率的显卡以及游戏玩家升级设备，英伟达的自由现金流利润率甚至可能扩大到30%以上。假设 35% 的收入转换为自由现金流，那么到 2026 财年，英伟达每年可产生高达 16.4B 美元的自由现金流……这意味着 FCF CAGR 不是 25%，而是 29%。</blockquote></p><p> For that reason, I believe Nvidia’s free cash flow potential is materially undervalued. Nvidia is set to generate a massive amount of cash flow in the next five years. Based off of FY 2023 revenue estimates, Nvidia is not cheap (P-S ratio: 17.9), but the potential for sales and free cash flow growth justifies the price.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我认为英伟达的自由现金流潜力被严重低估了。英伟达将在未来五年内产生大量现金流。根据 2023 财年的收入预测，英伟达的价格并不便宜（市盈率：17.9），但销售和自由现金流增长的潜力证明了价格的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acfca86b9c32ab42da6edcea7b9046b0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks with Nvidia</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia has a couple of commercial risks that need to be considered. The industry environment is favorable for Nvidia at the moment which explains strong revenue growth projections, but weaker pricing in graphics cards potentially indicates growing risks to Nvidia’s top line. Lower gross margins will also likely be seen as the canary in the coal mine, indicating that slowing revenue growth is on the horizon. Longer term, Nvidia has to keep its technological edge to defend its tech leadership in GPUs, data centers and AI. Failing to do so would give its rivals, AMD and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC), an opportunity to grow their market share at the expense of Nvidia.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达有一些需要考虑的商业风险。目前的行业环境对英伟达有利，这也解释了其强劲的收入增长预测，但显卡定价疲软可能表明英伟达的营收面临越来越大的风险。较低的毛利率也可能被视为煤矿的金丝雀，表明收入增长放缓即将到来。从长远来看，英伟达必须保持其技术优势，以捍卫其在GPU、数据中心和人工智能方面的技术领先地位。如果不这样做，其竞争对手 AMD 和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）将有机会以牺牲英伟达为代价来扩大市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia, despite a high P-S ratio, may still be undervalued considering the massive ramp in free cash flow that can be expected in the next five years. Sales projections for FY 2023 imply a drop off in growth rates, which I just don’t see given the accelerating strength in Nvidia’s main and niche businesses. Nvidia is in a buy-the-dip situation and the risk profile remains heavily skewed to the upside!</p><p><blockquote>尽管英伟达的市盈率很高，但考虑到未来五年自由现金流的大幅增长，英伟达的估值可能仍然被低估。2023 财年的销售预测意味着增长率将会下降，但鉴于 Nvidia 主营业务和利基业务的加速增长，我并不认为会出现这种情况。英伟达正处于逢低买入的境地，风险状况仍然严重偏向上行!</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Is Set To Turn Into A Cash Machine<blockquote>英伟达将变成提款机</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Is Set To Turn Into A Cash Machine<blockquote>英伟达将变成提款机</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-12 22:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Nvidia’s main businesses experience massive momentum as graphics cards sales surge and demand for data centers strengthens.</li> <li>Strong GPU pricing served to improve Nvidia’s margins in the first six months of the year.</li> <li>There is significant upside in Nvidia's free cash flow.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12a40bc61cdb4aabe35ac1e3ed9ae5ac\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着显卡销量激增和数据中心需求增强，英伟达的主要业务正经历着巨大的发展势头。</li><li>今年前六个月，强劲的 GPU 定价提高了英伟达的利润率。</li><li>英伟达的自由现金流有显着上升空间。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA)is one of the world’s best growth stocks to own as gaming and data center revenues continue to soar. I believe Nvidia will grow into a massive cash machine over the next five years with an estimated annual free cash flow of $14.0B or more!</p><p><blockquote>随着游戏和数据中心收入的持续飙升，英伟达（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）是全球最值得拥有的成长型股票之一。我相信 Nvidia 将在未来五年内成长为一台巨大的提款机，预计每年自由现金流将达到 $14.0B 或更多!</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Nvidia is a long term buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么英伟达值得长期买入</b></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia just produces incredible growth. The firm generated 68% top line growth in the second-quarter, with revenues touching $6.51B due to soaring demand in the gaming and the data center segments. Gaming revenues surged to a record of $3.06B in the second-quarter, showing a year over year increase of 85%, chiefly because of strengthening sales in a severely undersupplied graphics cards market. Data center revenues also surged to a record, $2.37B in Q2’22, showing a year over year growth rate of 35%. With total revenues up by 68% and higher gross margins (66.7% in Q2’22), Nvidia’s commercial performance is getting better and better...</p><p><blockquote>英伟达刚刚产生了令人难以置信的增长。由于游戏和数据中心领域的需求飙升，该公司第二季度营收增长了 68%，收入达到 $6.51B。第二季度游戏收入飙升至创纪录的$3.06B，同比增长85%，主要是由于供应严重不足的显卡市场销售增强。2022 年第二季度数据中心收入也飙升至创纪录的 23.7 亿美元，同比增长率为 35%。随着总收入增长 68%，毛利率提高（2022 年第二季度为 66.7%），英伟达的商业业绩越来越好...</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1af1b5d7b0be554a0ef5ed7d3b79435\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"192\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Nvidia</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：英伟达</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But I don’t believe Nvidia’s business has peaked yet. I believe Nvidia will continue to grow rapidly because of increasing demand for high performance data centers that can handle incredible amounts of workloads and because Nvidia’s largest business by revenues, gaming, is seeing pricing support from end markets. Graphics cards have been flying off the shelf in 2020 and 2021, in part because cryptocurrency miners compete with gamers for GPUs. The result has been that graphics cards are in a shortage, leading to a significant increase in GPU pricing. AMD(NASDAQ:AMD)and Nvidia, the two largest suppliers of high performance graphics processing units, benefit from this trend the most.</p><p><blockquote>但我认为英伟达的业务还没有达到顶峰。我相信，英伟达将继续快速增长，因为人们对能够处理大量工作负载的高性能数据中心的需求不断增长，而且英伟达收入最大的业务游戏也得到了终端市场的定价支持。显卡在2020年和2021年已经下架，部分原因是加密货币矿工与游戏玩家争夺GPU。结果是显卡短缺，导致GPU价格大幅上涨。AMD（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英伟达是两家最大的高性能图形处理单元供应商，从这一趋势中受益最大。</blockquote></p><p> Top-tier graphics cards like AMD’s Radeon RX 6000 and Nvidia’s GeForce RTX 30 series have seen strong demand/pricing in 2021, and the steep decline in cryptocurrency prices in the second-quarter did not significantly lower demand. GPU prices peaked in May - at the top of the crypto boom - and have fallen since. However, pricing is still strong with the AMD Radeon RX series selling for 1.64x suggested retail price at the end of August. Nvidia’s GeForce 30 series sold for 1.59x MSRP in August, indicating consistently high demand for GPUs.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 的 Radeon RX 6000 和 Nvidia 的 GeForce RTX 30 系列等顶级显卡在 2021 年的需求/定价都很强劲，而第二季度加密货币价格的大幅下跌并没有显著降低需求。GPU价格在5月份达到顶峰——在加密货币繁荣的顶峰——此后一直在下降。然而，定价仍然强劲，AMD镭龙RX系列在8月底的售价是建议零售价的1.64倍。英伟达 GeForce 30 系列在 8 月份的售价为 1.59 倍，表明对 GPU 的需求一直很高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e234f2daf83e24fdb585fce43d5b3236\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"448\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FPS Reviews</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：FPS评论</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Because of excellent commercial performance in its main businesses,accelerating momentum in niche businesses and strength in GPU pricing, Nvidia is looking at a dramatic improvement in free cash flow over the next five years... supplying yet another reason to buy the shares!</p><p><blockquote>由于其主要业务的出色商业表现、利基业务的加速发展势头以及 GPU 定价的优势，英伟达预计未来五年自由现金流将大幅改善……提供了另一个购买股票的理由!</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia is projecting revenues of $6.8B +/- 2 percent for the third-quarter. Including Q3’22 revenue projections, Nvidia should post revenues of around $19.0B for the first nine months of FY 2022. Adding $7.0B in revenues on top of that for the fourth-quarter, and Nvidia is looking at revenues of around $26.0B for FY 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Nvidia 预计第三季度收入为 $6.8B +/- 2%。包括 22 财年第三季度的收入预测在内，英伟达 2022 财年前 9 个月的收入应约为 190 亿美元。除此之外，Nvidia 第四季度还增加了 $7.0B 的收入，预计 2022 财年的收入约为 $26.0B。</blockquote></p><p> The market projects revenues of $25.8B this year and $29.0B revenues next year (the assumption is for just 13% year over year growth in FY 2023). I believe revenues will be above $30.0B in FY 2023 due to strong business momentum and favorable GPU pricing. Nvidia’s revenues are projected to grow at an annual rate of 23% until FY 2026 (base year: FY 2021).</p><p><blockquote>市场预计今年收入为 25.8B 美元，明年收入为 29.0B 美元（假设 2023 财年同比仅增长 13%）。我相信，由于强劲的业务势头和有利的 GPU 定价，2023 财年的收入将超过 $30.0B。Nvidia 的收入预计将以每年 23% 的速度增长，直到 2026 财年（基准年：2021 财年）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c03f31d7f5924796294fe4ef344ff8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking at Nvidia’s revenue to cash conversion, consistently high free cash flow margins can be found. The semiconductor firm generated annual free cash flow margins ranging between 28% and 39% from FY 2018 to FY 2021 with an average annual margin of 31%. I believe a free cash flow margin around 30% can be sustained going forward, especially if pricing in the graphics cards market stays strong. Because cryptocurrency prices started to recover in the third-quarter, GPUs could even see accelerating demand in the future. Rising digital currency prices benefit Nvidia in two ways: They boost the cryptocurrency mining business/CMP which sells dedicated processors, and higher demand for GPUs improves end market pricing, meaning Nvidia can sell the same graphics card for a higher price. Nvidia’s free cash flow margin in the first six months of FY 2022 was above 33%, due chiefly to strength in GPU demand and pricing.</p><p><blockquote>从 Nvidia 的收入到现金的转换率来看，可以发现其自由现金流利润率一直很高。从2018财年到2021财年，该半导体公司产生的年度自由现金流利润率在28%至39%之间，平均年利润率为31%。我相信未来可以维持30%左右的自由现金流利润率，特别是如果显卡市场的定价保持强劲的话。由于加密货币价格在第三季度开始复苏，GPU 未来甚至可能出现加速需求。数字货币价格上涨在两个方面使英伟达受益：它们促进了销售专用处理器的加密货币挖矿业务/CMP，对GPU的更高需求提高了终端市场定价，这意味着英伟达可以以更高的价格销售相同的显卡。英伟达 2022 财年前六个月的自由现金流利润率超过 33%，这主要得益于 GPU 需求和定价的强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9e05cd7aa4844f19e4ba0899754633f\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"731\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning back to revenue projections.</p><p><blockquote>回到收入预测。</blockquote></p><p> The FY 2023 market expectation is for Nvidia to have revenues of $29.0B. Assuming a 30% free cash flow margin, Nvidia is looking at $8.7B in free cash flow next year... which is a 100% improvement over the firm's FY 2020 level of free cash flow. I believe the FY 2023 revenue estimate underestimates Nvidia’s growth potential next year as I see persistent strength in gaming and data centers, and a higher than 13% annual revenue growth rate. However, revenue estimates for Nvidia, for this year and next year, are rising...</p><p><blockquote>市场预期 Nvidia 2023 财年的收入为 29.0B 美元。假设自由现金流利润率为 30%，Nvidia 预计明年的自由现金流为 8.7B 美元……这比公司2020财年的自由现金流水平提高了100%。我认为 2023 财年的收入预测低估了英伟达明年的增长潜力，因为我认为英伟达在游戏和数据中心领域的持续增长，年收入增长率高于 13%。然而，英伟达今年和明年的收入预期正在上升……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d979b6088a67cf25c6993d40c574bb7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If we were also to assume that Nvidia can generate 30% free cash flow margins in the future, Nvidia’s annual free cash flow is set to surpass $14B by FY 2026. In CAGR terms, this means that Nvidia will grow free cash flow at a 25% annual rate over the next five years. Nvidia may grow free cash flow at a faster rate if revenues also grow faster. I believe this will happen because the RTX upgrade cycle will lead to a higher volume of higher-priced GPUs being sold in the future, which is set to boost FCF margins.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们还假设英伟达未来能产生 30% 的自由现金流利润率，那么到 2026 财年，英伟达的年度自由现金流将超过 140 亿美元。以CAGR计算，这意味着英伟达将在未来五年内以每年25%的速度增长自由现金流。如果收入增长更快，英伟达的自由现金流可能会以更快的速度增长。我相信这种情况会发生，因为 RTX 升级周期将导致未来售出更多高价 GPU，这将提高 FCF 利润率。</blockquote></p><p> As Nvidia releases more top-tier, higher margin graphics cards and gamers upgrade their equipment, Nvidia's free cash flow margins could even expand beyond 30%. Assuming a, say, 35% revenue to free cash flow conversion, Nvidia could generate up to $16.4B in annual free cash flow by FY 2026… which would imply a FCF CAGR of not 25%, but 29%.</p><p><blockquote>随着英伟达发布更多顶级、更高利润率的显卡以及游戏玩家升级设备，英伟达的自由现金流利润率甚至可能扩大到30%以上。假设 35% 的收入转换为自由现金流，那么到 2026 财年，英伟达每年可产生高达 16.4B 美元的自由现金流……这意味着 FCF CAGR 不是 25%，而是 29%。</blockquote></p><p> For that reason, I believe Nvidia’s free cash flow potential is materially undervalued. Nvidia is set to generate a massive amount of cash flow in the next five years. Based off of FY 2023 revenue estimates, Nvidia is not cheap (P-S ratio: 17.9), but the potential for sales and free cash flow growth justifies the price.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我认为英伟达的自由现金流潜力被严重低估了。英伟达将在未来五年内产生大量现金流。根据 2023 财年的收入预测，英伟达的价格并不便宜（市盈率：17.9），但销售和自由现金流增长的潜力证明了价格的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acfca86b9c32ab42da6edcea7b9046b0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks with Nvidia</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia has a couple of commercial risks that need to be considered. The industry environment is favorable for Nvidia at the moment which explains strong revenue growth projections, but weaker pricing in graphics cards potentially indicates growing risks to Nvidia’s top line. Lower gross margins will also likely be seen as the canary in the coal mine, indicating that slowing revenue growth is on the horizon. Longer term, Nvidia has to keep its technological edge to defend its tech leadership in GPUs, data centers and AI. Failing to do so would give its rivals, AMD and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC), an opportunity to grow their market share at the expense of Nvidia.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达有一些需要考虑的商业风险。目前的行业环境对英伟达有利，这也解释了其强劲的收入增长预测，但显卡定价疲软可能表明英伟达的营收面临越来越大的风险。较低的毛利率也可能被视为煤矿的金丝雀，表明收入增长放缓即将到来。从长远来看，英伟达必须保持其技术优势，以捍卫其在GPU、数据中心和人工智能方面的技术领先地位。如果不这样做，其竞争对手 AMD 和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）将有机会以牺牲英伟达为代价来扩大市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia, despite a high P-S ratio, may still be undervalued considering the massive ramp in free cash flow that can be expected in the next five years. Sales projections for FY 2023 imply a drop off in growth rates, which I just don’t see given the accelerating strength in Nvidia’s main and niche businesses. Nvidia is in a buy-the-dip situation and the risk profile remains heavily skewed to the upside!</p><p><blockquote>尽管英伟达的市盈率很高，但考虑到未来五年自由现金流的大幅增长，英伟达的估值可能仍然被低估。2023 财年的销售预测意味着增长率将会下降，但鉴于 Nvidia 主营业务和利基业务的加速增长，我并不认为会出现这种情况。英伟达正处于逢低买入的境地，风险状况仍然严重偏向上行!</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459353-nvidia-set-to-turn-into-cash-machine\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459353-nvidia-set-to-turn-into-cash-machine","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174197178","content_text":"Summary\n\nNvidia’s main businesses experience massive momentum as graphics cards sales surge and demand for data centers strengthens.\nStrong GPU pricing served to improve Nvidia’s margins in the first six months of the year.\nThere is significant upside in Nvidia's free cash flow.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nNvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA)is one of the world’s best growth stocks to own as gaming and data center revenues continue to soar. I believe Nvidia will grow into a massive cash machine over the next five years with an estimated annual free cash flow of $14.0B or more!\nWhy Nvidia is a long term buy\nNvidia just produces incredible growth. The firm generated 68% top line growth in the second-quarter, with revenues touching $6.51B due to soaring demand in the gaming and the data center segments. Gaming revenues surged to a record of $3.06B in the second-quarter, showing a year over year increase of 85%, chiefly because of strengthening sales in a severely undersupplied graphics cards market. Data center revenues also surged to a record, $2.37B in Q2’22, showing a year over year growth rate of 35%. With total revenues up by 68% and higher gross margins (66.7% in Q2’22), Nvidia’s commercial performance is getting better and better...\nSource: Nvidia\nBut I don’t believe Nvidia’s business has peaked yet. I believe Nvidia will continue to grow rapidly because of increasing demand for high performance data centers that can handle incredible amounts of workloads and because Nvidia’s largest business by revenues, gaming, is seeing pricing support from end markets. Graphics cards have been flying off the shelf in 2020 and 2021, in part because cryptocurrency miners compete with gamers for GPUs. The result has been that graphics cards are in a shortage, leading to a significant increase in GPU pricing. AMD(NASDAQ:AMD)and Nvidia, the two largest suppliers of high performance graphics processing units, benefit from this trend the most.\nTop-tier graphics cards like AMD’s Radeon RX 6000 and Nvidia’s GeForce RTX 30 series have seen strong demand/pricing in 2021, and the steep decline in cryptocurrency prices in the second-quarter did not significantly lower demand. GPU prices peaked in May - at the top of the crypto boom - and have fallen since. However, pricing is still strong with the AMD Radeon RX series selling for 1.64x suggested retail price at the end of August. Nvidia’s GeForce 30 series sold for 1.59x MSRP in August, indicating consistently high demand for GPUs.\nSource: FPS Reviews\nBecause of excellent commercial performance in its main businesses,accelerating momentum in niche businesses and strength in GPU pricing, Nvidia is looking at a dramatic improvement in free cash flow over the next five years... supplying yet another reason to buy the shares!\nNvidia is projecting revenues of $6.8B +/- 2 percent for the third-quarter. Including Q3’22 revenue projections, Nvidia should post revenues of around $19.0B for the first nine months of FY 2022. Adding $7.0B in revenues on top of that for the fourth-quarter, and Nvidia is looking at revenues of around $26.0B for FY 2022.\nThe market projects revenues of $25.8B this year and $29.0B revenues next year (the assumption is for just 13% year over year growth in FY 2023). I believe revenues will be above $30.0B in FY 2023 due to strong business momentum and favorable GPU pricing. Nvidia’s revenues are projected to grow at an annual rate of 23% until FY 2026 (base year: FY 2021).\nSource: Seeking Alpha Estimates\nLooking at Nvidia’s revenue to cash conversion, consistently high free cash flow margins can be found. The semiconductor firm generated annual free cash flow margins ranging between 28% and 39% from FY 2018 to FY 2021 with an average annual margin of 31%. I believe a free cash flow margin around 30% can be sustained going forward, especially if pricing in the graphics cards market stays strong. Because cryptocurrency prices started to recover in the third-quarter, GPUs could even see accelerating demand in the future. Rising digital currency prices benefit Nvidia in two ways: They boost the cryptocurrency mining business/CMP which sells dedicated processors, and higher demand for GPUs improves end market pricing, meaning Nvidia can sell the same graphics card for a higher price. Nvidia’s free cash flow margin in the first six months of FY 2022 was above 33%, due chiefly to strength in GPU demand and pricing.\nSource: Author\nTurning back to revenue projections.\nThe FY 2023 market expectation is for Nvidia to have revenues of $29.0B. Assuming a 30% free cash flow margin, Nvidia is looking at $8.7B in free cash flow next year... which is a 100% improvement over the firm's FY 2020 level of free cash flow. I believe the FY 2023 revenue estimate underestimates Nvidia’s growth potential next year as I see persistent strength in gaming and data centers, and a higher than 13% annual revenue growth rate. However, revenue estimates for Nvidia, for this year and next year, are rising...\nData by YCharts\nIf we were also to assume that Nvidia can generate 30% free cash flow margins in the future, Nvidia’s annual free cash flow is set to surpass $14B by FY 2026. In CAGR terms, this means that Nvidia will grow free cash flow at a 25% annual rate over the next five years. Nvidia may grow free cash flow at a faster rate if revenues also grow faster. I believe this will happen because the RTX upgrade cycle will lead to a higher volume of higher-priced GPUs being sold in the future, which is set to boost FCF margins.\nAs Nvidia releases more top-tier, higher margin graphics cards and gamers upgrade their equipment, Nvidia's free cash flow margins could even expand beyond 30%. Assuming a, say, 35% revenue to free cash flow conversion, Nvidia could generate up to $16.4B in annual free cash flow by FY 2026… which would imply a FCF CAGR of not 25%, but 29%.\nFor that reason, I believe Nvidia’s free cash flow potential is materially undervalued. Nvidia is set to generate a massive amount of cash flow in the next five years. Based off of FY 2023 revenue estimates, Nvidia is not cheap (P-S ratio: 17.9), but the potential for sales and free cash flow growth justifies the price.\nData by YCharts\nRisks with Nvidia\nNvidia has a couple of commercial risks that need to be considered. The industry environment is favorable for Nvidia at the moment which explains strong revenue growth projections, but weaker pricing in graphics cards potentially indicates growing risks to Nvidia’s top line. Lower gross margins will also likely be seen as the canary in the coal mine, indicating that slowing revenue growth is on the horizon. Longer term, Nvidia has to keep its technological edge to defend its tech leadership in GPUs, data centers and AI. Failing to do so would give its rivals, AMD and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC), an opportunity to grow their market share at the expense of Nvidia.\nFinal thoughts\nNvidia, despite a high P-S ratio, may still be undervalued considering the massive ramp in free cash flow that can be expected in the next five years. Sales projections for FY 2023 imply a drop off in growth rates, which I just don’t see given the accelerating strength in Nvidia’s main and niche businesses. Nvidia is in a buy-the-dip situation and the risk profile remains heavily skewed to the upside!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4132,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":17,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/826477480"}
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