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2021-10-12

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Everyone’s a Dollar Bull as Taper Makes U.S. Currency a Top Bet<blockquote>每个人都看多美元，缩减购债规模使美元成为首选</blockquote>

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Its value against the yen is at a December 2018 high, while CFTC data shows leveraged funds are the most bullish in over a year. Plus, risk reversals, which compare the costs of options, for the Bloomberg Dollar Index show investor sentiment is near the strongest since the pandemic’s first wave.<blockquote>目前，美元主导地位的证据在各个市场上比比皆是。其兑日元汇率处于2018年12月的高点，而CFTC数据显示杠杆基金是一年多来最看涨的。此外，彭博美元指数比较期权成本的风险逆转显示，投资者情绪接近疫情第一波以来的最强水平。</blockquote> Not even a disappointing September U.S. jobs report derailed the currency, as traders still expect the Fed to start reducing asset purchases this year. In fact, the market read inflationary signals in the report as further evidence that U.S. interest rates would have to rise sooner than later, which would lift yields and the dollar.<blockquote>即使是令人失望的9月份美国就业报告也没有让美元脱轨，因为交易员仍预计美联储今年将开始减少资产购买。事实上，市场将报告中的通胀信号解读为美国利率迟早必须上升的进一步证据，这将提振收益率和美元。</blockquote> Rabobank’s Jane Foley is among the strategists saying the dollar is poised for further gains as U.S. yields rise and demand for emerging-market assets remains dulled. Saxobank’s John Hardy thinks the dollar could “make life miserable for the bears in Q4,” predicting that the market will finally begin to take Fed tapering seriously.<blockquote>荷兰合作银行的Jane Foley等策略师表示，随着美国收益率上升和对新兴市场资产的需求仍然低迷，美元有望进一步上涨。盛宝银行(Saxobank)的约翰·哈迪(John Hardy)认为，美元可能“让空头在第四季度过得很痛苦”，并预测市场最终将开始认真对待美联储的缩减。</blockquote> Most strategists expect the greenback to be particularly strong against so-called funding, or low-interest, currencies such as the euro and yen, because their central banks are expected to lag the Fed in raising interest rates.<blockquote>大多数策略师预计，美元兑欧元和日元等所谓的资金或低息货币将特别强劲，因为预计这些国家的央行将在加息方面落后于美联储。</blockquote> “We are getting somewhat close to that tapering narrative in the U.S., and those other funding currencies are still some considerable distance away,” said CIBC’s Jeremy Stretch in an interview with Bloomberg TV Monday. “Central banks like the ECB are going to probably be on hold for the next two-three years, so that ultimately favors long dollar positions.”<blockquote>CIBC的杰里米·斯特雷奇(Jeremy Stretch)周一在接受彭博电视台采访时表示：“我们在美国已经接近缩减规模的说法，而其他融资货币仍有相当长的距离。”“像欧洲央行这样的央行可能会在未来两到三年内按兵不动，因此最终有利于美元多头头寸。”</blockquote> U.S. two-year Treasury bonds currently yield 99 basis points more than their European counterparts and 41 more than Japanese debt. For 10-year bonds, the yield difference is 173 basis points for the euro region and 152 for Japan.<blockquote>目前美国两年期国债收益率比欧洲国债高99个基点，比日本国债高41个基点。对于10年期债券，欧元区的收益率差为173个基点，日本为152个基点。</blockquote> Ultimate Haven?<blockquote>终极天堂？</blockquote> This year’s high for the dollar was set in September, when investors were seeking havens from China’s property-sector turmoil and the combination of slowing global growth and quickening inflation. It could get another lift from demand for protection as an energy crisis continues to rattle markets.<blockquote>美元今年的高点是在9月份创下的，当时投资者正在寻找避风港，以躲避中国房地产行业的动荡以及全球经济增长放缓和通胀加速的结合。随着能源危机继续扰乱市场，保护需求可能会再次提振市场。</blockquote> The unprecedented spike in energy prices has also been a key driver of the dollar while hurting the euro, according to Kevin Thozet, a member of the investment committee at Carmignac. He’s been increasing his exposure to the greenback for the past month or so.<blockquote>Carmignac投资委员会成员Kevin Thozet表示，能源价格前所未有的飙升也是美元的关键驱动因素，同时损害了欧元。过去一个月左右，他一直在增加美元敞口。</blockquote> “The move is likely linked to what’s happening on the commodity side,” he said. “Because the U.S. is self-sufficient on that front, and it’s not the same for the euro area.”<blockquote>“此举可能与大宗商品方面正在发生的事情有关，”他表示。“因为美国在这方面是自给自足的，而欧元区则不一样。”</blockquote> The euro-dollar pair has been hovering near lows not seen since July 2020, in part due to the dollar’s increasing strength. Speculators have been unwinding long euro bets since the second half of last year, with positions last week turning the most negative since March of 2020.<blockquote>欧元兑美元一直徘徊在2020年7月以来的低点附近，部分原因是美元走强。自去年下半年以来，投机者一直在平仓欧元多头押注，上周头寸转为2020年3月以来最负水平。</blockquote> Zooming out, weakening global growth forecasts combined with climbing inflation makes the U.S. currency an even more attractive wager, JPMorgan’s Meera Chandan wrote in a research note Friday. “The backdrop lends itself to owning dollars on a broad basis, not only vs. higher beta currencies that are typically sensitive to growth, but also relative to other defensive currencies like JPY.”<blockquote>摩根大通(JPMorgan)的米拉·钱丹(Meera Chandan)周五在一份研究报告中写道，缩小范围，全球增长预测疲软加上通胀攀升使美元成为更具吸引力的赌注。“这种背景有利于广泛持有美元，不仅是相对于通常对增长敏感的较高贝塔货币，而且相对于日元等其他防御性货币。”</blockquote> The dollar as a haven is a relatively new phenomenon. When times are tough globally, FX traders have historically looked to the Japanese yen and Swiss franc for stability. But with unbeatable liquidity and a widening yield advantage, the U.S. currency has become an attractive venue for storing value during market turmoil, according to CIBC’s Stretch.<blockquote>美元作为避风港是一个相对较新的现象。当全球经济形势艰难时，外汇交易员历来都希望日元和瑞士法郎保持稳定。但CIBC的Stretch表示，凭借无与伦比的流动性和不断扩大的收益率优势，美元已成为市场动荡期间有吸引力的储值场所。</blockquote> “Investors are looking for a certain degree of safety and security, and I think in that context from the FX perspective does lead us back toward that broader dollar narrative,” Stretch said.<blockquote>斯特雷奇表示：“投资者正在寻求一定程度的安全保障，我认为在这种背景下，从外汇角度来看，确实会让我们回到更广泛的美元叙事。”</blockquote> Fed policy will likely give the dollar an advantage over the next few months, and not just against traditional havens, according to Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities. The greenback also tends to benefit from a seasonal advantage against other G-10 currencies in the fourth quarter, he said.<blockquote>道明证券高级外汇策略师Mazen Issa表示，美联储的政策可能会在未来几个月给美元带来优势，而不仅仅是相对于传统避风港。他表示，第四季度美元兑其他G-10货币也往往受益于季节性优势。</blockquote> “Is the dollar safe haven? Against the backdrop, perhaps so. But, I think it’s more about the shift in monetary policy risks,” Issa said. “It just seems like you need to respect the dollar now.”<blockquote>“美元是避风港吗？在这种背景下，或许如此。但是，我认为更多的是货币政策风险的转变，”伊萨说。“看来你现在需要尊重美元。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Everyone’s a Dollar Bull as Taper Makes U.S. Currency a Top Bet<blockquote>每个人都看多美元，缩减购债规模使美元成为首选</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEveryone’s a Dollar Bull as Taper Makes U.S. Currency a Top Bet<blockquote>每个人都看多美元，缩减购债规模使美元成为首选</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBloomberg2021-10-12 07:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n(Bloomberg) -- The dollar is starting to look unbeatable in the coming months as an anticipated tapering of stimulative asset purchases by the Federal Reserve, seasonal demand and energy-driven instability unleash a wave of bullish bets on the U.S. currency.<blockquote>（彭博社）——随着美联储预期缩减刺激性资产购买、季节性需求和能源驱动的不稳定引发一波对美元的看涨押注，美元在未来几个月开始看起来无与伦比。</blockquote> Evidence of the greenback’s dominance is rampant across markets at the moment. Its value against the yen is at a December 2018 high, while CFTC data shows leveraged funds are the most bullish in over a year. Plus, risk reversals, which compare the costs of options, for the Bloomberg Dollar Index show investor sentiment is near the strongest since the pandemic’s first wave.<blockquote>目前，美元主导地位的证据在各个市场上比比皆是。其兑日元汇率处于2018年12月的高点，而CFTC数据显示杠杆基金是一年多来最看涨的。此外，彭博美元指数比较期权成本的风险逆转显示，投资者情绪接近疫情第一波以来的最强水平。</blockquote> Not even a disappointing September U.S. jobs report derailed the currency, as traders still expect the Fed to start reducing asset purchases this year. In fact, the market read inflationary signals in the report as further evidence that U.S. interest rates would have to rise sooner than later, which would lift yields and the dollar.<blockquote>即使是令人失望的9月份美国就业报告也没有让美元脱轨，因为交易员仍预计美联储今年将开始减少资产购买。事实上，市场将报告中的通胀信号解读为美国利率迟早必须上升的进一步证据，这将提振收益率和美元。</blockquote> Rabobank’s Jane Foley is among the strategists saying the dollar is poised for further gains as U.S. yields rise and demand for emerging-market assets remains dulled. Saxobank’s John Hardy thinks the dollar could “make life miserable for the bears in Q4,” predicting that the market will finally begin to take Fed tapering seriously.<blockquote>荷兰合作银行的Jane Foley等策略师表示，随着美国收益率上升和对新兴市场资产的需求仍然低迷，美元有望进一步上涨。盛宝银行(Saxobank)的约翰·哈迪(John Hardy)认为，美元可能“让空头在第四季度过得很痛苦”，并预测市场最终将开始认真对待美联储的缩减。</blockquote> Most strategists expect the greenback to be particularly strong against so-called funding, or low-interest, currencies such as the euro and yen, because their central banks are expected to lag the Fed in raising interest rates.<blockquote>大多数策略师预计，美元兑欧元和日元等所谓的资金或低息货币将特别强劲，因为预计这些国家的央行将在加息方面落后于美联储。</blockquote> “We are getting somewhat close to that tapering narrative in the U.S., and those other funding currencies are still some considerable distance away,” said CIBC’s Jeremy Stretch in an interview with Bloomberg TV Monday. “Central banks like the ECB are going to probably be on hold for the next two-three years, so that ultimately favors long dollar positions.”<blockquote>CIBC的杰里米·斯特雷奇(Jeremy Stretch)周一在接受彭博电视台采访时表示：“我们在美国已经接近缩减规模的说法，而其他融资货币仍有相当长的距离。”“像欧洲央行这样的央行可能会在未来两到三年内按兵不动，因此最终有利于美元多头头寸。”</blockquote> U.S. two-year Treasury bonds currently yield 99 basis points more than their European counterparts and 41 more than Japanese debt. For 10-year bonds, the yield difference is 173 basis points for the euro region and 152 for Japan.<blockquote>目前美国两年期国债收益率比欧洲国债高99个基点，比日本国债高41个基点。对于10年期债券，欧元区的收益率差为173个基点，日本为152个基点。</blockquote> Ultimate Haven?<blockquote>终极天堂？</blockquote> This year’s high for the dollar was set in September, when investors were seeking havens from China’s property-sector turmoil and the combination of slowing global growth and quickening inflation. It could get another lift from demand for protection as an energy crisis continues to rattle markets.<blockquote>美元今年的高点是在9月份创下的，当时投资者正在寻找避风港，以躲避中国房地产行业的动荡以及全球经济增长放缓和通胀加速的结合。随着能源危机继续扰乱市场，保护需求可能会再次提振市场。</blockquote> The unprecedented spike in energy prices has also been a key driver of the dollar while hurting the euro, according to Kevin Thozet, a member of the investment committee at Carmignac. He’s been increasing his exposure to the greenback for the past month or so.<blockquote>Carmignac投资委员会成员Kevin Thozet表示，能源价格前所未有的飙升也是美元的关键驱动因素，同时损害了欧元。过去一个月左右，他一直在增加美元敞口。</blockquote> “The move is likely linked to what’s happening on the commodity side,” he said. “Because the U.S. is self-sufficient on that front, and it’s not the same for the euro area.”<blockquote>“此举可能与大宗商品方面正在发生的事情有关，”他表示。“因为美国在这方面是自给自足的，而欧元区则不一样。”</blockquote> The euro-dollar pair has been hovering near lows not seen since July 2020, in part due to the dollar’s increasing strength. Speculators have been unwinding long euro bets since the second half of last year, with positions last week turning the most negative since March of 2020.<blockquote>欧元兑美元一直徘徊在2020年7月以来的低点附近，部分原因是美元走强。自去年下半年以来，投机者一直在平仓欧元多头押注，上周头寸转为2020年3月以来最负水平。</blockquote> Zooming out, weakening global growth forecasts combined with climbing inflation makes the U.S. currency an even more attractive wager, JPMorgan’s Meera Chandan wrote in a research note Friday. “The backdrop lends itself to owning dollars on a broad basis, not only vs. higher beta currencies that are typically sensitive to growth, but also relative to other defensive currencies like JPY.”<blockquote>摩根大通(JPMorgan)的米拉·钱丹(Meera Chandan)周五在一份研究报告中写道，缩小范围，全球增长预测疲软加上通胀攀升使美元成为更具吸引力的赌注。“这种背景有利于广泛持有美元，不仅是相对于通常对增长敏感的较高贝塔货币，而且相对于日元等其他防御性货币。”</blockquote> The dollar as a haven is a relatively new phenomenon. When times are tough globally, FX traders have historically looked to the Japanese yen and Swiss franc for stability. But with unbeatable liquidity and a widening yield advantage, the U.S. currency has become an attractive venue for storing value during market turmoil, according to CIBC’s Stretch.<blockquote>美元作为避风港是一个相对较新的现象。当全球经济形势艰难时，外汇交易员历来都希望日元和瑞士法郎保持稳定。但CIBC的Stretch表示，凭借无与伦比的流动性和不断扩大的收益率优势，美元已成为市场动荡期间有吸引力的储值场所。</blockquote> “Investors are looking for a certain degree of safety and security, and I think in that context from the FX perspective does lead us back toward that broader dollar narrative,” Stretch said.<blockquote>斯特雷奇表示：“投资者正在寻求一定程度的安全保障，我认为在这种背景下，从外汇角度来看，确实会让我们回到更广泛的美元叙事。”</blockquote> Fed policy will likely give the dollar an advantage over the next few months, and not just against traditional havens, according to Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities. The greenback also tends to benefit from a seasonal advantage against other G-10 currencies in the fourth quarter, he said.<blockquote>道明证券高级外汇策略师Mazen Issa表示，美联储的政策可能会在未来几个月给美元带来优势，而不仅仅是相对于传统避风港。他表示，第四季度美元兑其他G-10货币也往往受益于季节性优势。</blockquote> “Is the dollar safe haven? Against the backdrop, perhaps so. But, I think it’s more about the shift in monetary policy risks,” Issa said. “It just seems like you need to respect the dollar now.”<blockquote>“美元是避风港吗？在这种背景下，或许如此。但是，我认为更多的是货币政策风险的转变，”伊萨说。“看来你现在需要尊重美元。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/everyone-dollar-bull-taper-makes-204444976.html\">Bloomberg</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/everyone-dollar-bull-taper-makes-204444976.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149305525","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- The dollar is starting to look unbeatable in the coming months as an anticipated tapering of stimulative asset purchases by the Federal Reserve, seasonal demand and energy-driven instability unleash a wave of bullish bets on the U.S. currency.\nEvidence of the greenback’s dominance is rampant across markets at the moment. Its value against the yen is at a December 2018 high, while CFTC data shows leveraged funds are the most bullish in over a year. Plus, risk reversals, which compare the costs of options, for the Bloomberg Dollar Index show investor sentiment is near the strongest since the pandemic’s first wave.\nNot even a disappointing September U.S. jobs report derailed the currency, as traders still expect the Fed to start reducing asset purchases this year. In fact, the market read inflationary signals in the report as further evidence that U.S. interest rates would have to rise sooner than later, which would lift yields and the dollar.\nRabobank’s Jane Foley is among the strategists saying the dollar is poised for further gains as U.S. yields rise and demand for emerging-market assets remains dulled. Saxobank’s John Hardy thinks the dollar could “make life miserable for the bears in Q4,” predicting that the market will finally begin to take Fed tapering seriously.\nMost strategists expect the greenback to be particularly strong against so-called funding, or low-interest, currencies such as the euro and yen, because their central banks are expected to lag the Fed in raising interest rates.\n“We are getting somewhat close to that tapering narrative in the U.S., and those other funding currencies are still some considerable distance away,” said CIBC’s Jeremy Stretch in an interview with Bloomberg TV Monday. “Central banks like the ECB are going to probably be on hold for the next two-three years, so that ultimately favors long dollar positions.”\nU.S. two-year Treasury bonds currently yield 99 basis points more than their European counterparts and 41 more than Japanese debt. For 10-year bonds, the yield difference is 173 basis points for the euro region and 152 for Japan.\nUltimate Haven?\nThis year’s high for the dollar was set in September, when investors were seeking havens from China’s property-sector turmoil and the combination of slowing global growth and quickening inflation. It could get another lift from demand for protection as an energy crisis continues to rattle markets.\nThe unprecedented spike in energy prices has also been a key driver of the dollar while hurting the euro, according to Kevin Thozet, a member of the investment committee at Carmignac. He’s been increasing his exposure to the greenback for the past month or so.\n“The move is likely linked to what’s happening on the commodity side,” he said. “Because the U.S. is self-sufficient on that front, and it’s not the same for the euro area.”\nThe euro-dollar pair has been hovering near lows not seen since July 2020, in part due to the dollar’s increasing strength. Speculators have been unwinding long euro bets since the second half of last year, with positions last week turning the most negative since March of 2020.\nZooming out, weakening global growth forecasts combined with climbing inflation makes the U.S. currency an even more attractive wager, JPMorgan’s Meera Chandan wrote in a research note Friday. “The backdrop lends itself to owning dollars on a broad basis, not only vs. higher beta currencies that are typically sensitive to growth, but also relative to other defensive currencies like JPY.”\nThe dollar as a haven is a relatively new phenomenon. When times are tough globally, FX traders have historically looked to the Japanese yen and Swiss franc for stability. But with unbeatable liquidity and a widening yield advantage, the U.S. currency has become an attractive venue for storing value during market turmoil, according to CIBC’s Stretch.\n“Investors are looking for a certain degree of safety and security, and I think in that context from the FX perspective does lead us back toward that broader dollar narrative,” Stretch said.\nFed policy will likely give the dollar an advantage over the next few months, and not just against traditional havens, according to Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities. The greenback also tends to benefit from a seasonal advantage against other G-10 currencies in the fourth quarter, he said.\n“Is the dollar safe haven? Against the backdrop, perhaps so. But, I think it’s more about the shift in monetary policy risks,” Issa said. “It just seems like you need to respect the dollar now.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/826199764"}