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2021-10-12

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Morgan Stanley Sees Stocks Suffering on Souring Consumer Outlook<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为股市因消费者前景恶化而受到影响</blockquote>

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But while multiple measures of consumer confidence have plunged since a peak in July, the benchmark S&amp;P 500 has soared, standing just 4% off an all-time high.<blockquote>通常情况下，消费者情绪与股市同步波动，因为消费占美国GDP的三分之二。但是，尽管消费者信心的多项指标自7月份的峰值以来有所下降，但基准标普500却飙升，仅比历史高点低4%。</blockquote> Consumers appear to be weighed down by the slow recovery, inflation worries, and political wrangling in Washington, while investors are more focused on positive earnings revisions and subtle changes in the Federal Reserve’s policies, Shalett said.<blockquote>Shalett表示，消费者似乎受到缓慢复苏、通胀担忧和华盛顿政治角力的拖累，而投资者更关注积极的盈利修正和美联储政策的微妙变化。</blockquote> “Critically, the Fed and investors have embraced the view that inflation is transitory -- a view not shared by consumers. If consumer sentiment doesn’t quickly improve, it could be a signal of market weakness that would be sparked by disappointing earnings, weaker spending and higher savings rates,” she warned.<blockquote>“至关重要的是，美联储和投资者接受了通胀是暂时的观点——消费者并不认同这一观点。如果消费者信心没有迅速改善，这可能是市场疲软的信号，而市场疲软将由令人失望的盈利、疲软的支出和更高的储蓄率引发，”她警告说。</blockquote> Metrics that track consumer expectations for the future show that consumers don’t see their concerns about inflation and the labor market recovery as temporary, she said. If that sentiment translates into real action, in the form of less spending and more savings, that could weigh on corporate profit forecasts, and ultimately weigh on stocks.<blockquote>她表示，跟踪消费者对未来预期的指标显示，消费者并不认为他们对通胀和劳动力市场复苏的担忧是暂时的。如果这种情绪转化为实际行动，以减少支出和增加储蓄的形式，这可能会打压企业利润预测，并最终打压股市。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Sees Stocks Suffering on Souring Consumer Outlook<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为股市因消费者前景恶化而受到影响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Sees Stocks Suffering on Souring Consumer Outlook<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为股市因消费者前景恶化而受到影响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBloomberg2021-10-12 07:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n(Bloomberg) -- Souring consumer confidence could soon catch up to stock market investors if this earnings season is clouded by downward guidance revisions.<blockquote>（彭博社）--如果本财报季因向下修正指引而蒙上阴影，消费者信心的恶化可能很快就会影响股市投资者。</blockquote> There’s been an “uncharacteristically” wide divergence between how consumers and investors feel about the economy after the surge in delta virus cases this summer, said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特表示，今年夏天德尔塔病毒病例激增后，消费者和投资者对经济的看法出现了“一反常态”的巨大差异。</blockquote> “We believe that corporate profit forecasts are vulnerable, especially if consumer sentiment translates into less spending and more savings,” she wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>她在给客户的一份报告中写道：“我们认为，企业利润预测很脆弱，特别是如果消费者情绪转化为支出减少和储蓄增加的话。”</blockquote> Typically consumer sentiment moves in tandem with the stock market, as consumption makes up two-thirds of U.S. GDP. But while multiple measures of consumer confidence have plunged since a peak in July, the benchmark S&amp;P 500 has soared, standing just 4% off an all-time high.<blockquote>通常情况下，消费者情绪与股市同步波动，因为消费占美国GDP的三分之二。但是，尽管消费者信心的多项指标自7月份的峰值以来有所下降，但基准标普500却飙升，仅比历史高点低4%。</blockquote> Consumers appear to be weighed down by the slow recovery, inflation worries, and political wrangling in Washington, while investors are more focused on positive earnings revisions and subtle changes in the Federal Reserve’s policies, Shalett said.<blockquote>Shalett表示，消费者似乎受到缓慢复苏、通胀担忧和华盛顿政治角力的拖累，而投资者更关注积极的盈利修正和美联储政策的微妙变化。</blockquote> “Critically, the Fed and investors have embraced the view that inflation is transitory -- a view not shared by consumers. If consumer sentiment doesn’t quickly improve, it could be a signal of market weakness that would be sparked by disappointing earnings, weaker spending and higher savings rates,” she warned.<blockquote>“至关重要的是，美联储和投资者接受了通胀是暂时的观点——消费者并不认同这一观点。如果消费者信心没有迅速改善，这可能是市场疲软的信号，而市场疲软将由令人失望的盈利、疲软的支出和更高的储蓄率引发，”她警告说。</blockquote> Metrics that track consumer expectations for the future show that consumers don’t see their concerns about inflation and the labor market recovery as temporary, she said. If that sentiment translates into real action, in the form of less spending and more savings, that could weigh on corporate profit forecasts, and ultimately weigh on stocks.<blockquote>她表示，跟踪消费者对未来预期的指标显示，消费者并不认为他们对通胀和劳动力市场复苏的担忧是暂时的。如果这种情绪转化为实际行动，以减少支出和增加储蓄的形式，这可能会打压企业利润预测，并最终打压股市。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-sees-stocks-suffering-184747046.html\">Bloomberg</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-sees-stocks-suffering-184747046.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100692210","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Souring consumer confidence could soon catch up to stock market investors if this earnings season is clouded by downward guidance revisions.\nThere’s been an “uncharacteristically” wide divergence between how consumers and investors feel about the economy after the surge in delta virus cases this summer, said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.\n“We believe that corporate profit forecasts are vulnerable, especially if consumer sentiment translates into less spending and more savings,” she wrote in a note to clients.\nTypically consumer sentiment moves in tandem with the stock market, as consumption makes up two-thirds of U.S. GDP. But while multiple measures of consumer confidence have plunged since a peak in July, the benchmark S&P 500 has soared, standing just 4% off an all-time high.\nConsumers appear to be weighed down by the slow recovery, inflation worries, and political wrangling in Washington, while investors are more focused on positive earnings revisions and subtle changes in the Federal Reserve’s policies, Shalett said.\n“Critically, the Fed and investors have embraced the view that inflation is transitory -- a view not shared by consumers. If consumer sentiment doesn’t quickly improve, it could be a signal of market weakness that would be sparked by disappointing earnings, weaker spending and higher savings rates,” she warned.\nMetrics that track consumer expectations for the future show that consumers don’t see their concerns about inflation and the labor market recovery as temporary, she said. If that sentiment translates into real action, in the form of less spending and more savings, that could weigh on corporate profit forecasts, and ultimately weigh on stocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":555,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/826114415"}